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胡小丙易经预测
经济学分析,股权架构,商业法律,企業管理諮詢,税务筹划,财务管理,易经风水预测
IP属地:海外
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胡小丙易经预测
03-11
我以前就告诉自己不要加杠杆,可还是没忍住诱惑,差点没爆仓,幸亏今天涨回去一点
胡小丙易经预测
02-20
$T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF(NVDX)$
为你安排,为你守候(。・ω・。)ノ♡
胡小丙易经预测
2024-10-19
当然是要投资赚钱,只要不买带杠杆的东西,早发都会是富翁。
胡小丙易经预测
2024-10-19
这是自相矛盾的话题,赚钱就是投资,投资即是赚钱
胡小丙易经预测
2024-10-05
$TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL$
轻轻松松拿捏
胡小丙易经预测
2024-09-20
5% 还低?
胡小丙易经预测
2024-09-16
中秋快乐,桂酒一杯人安好,月饼共食庆团圆。但愿人人都发财,打死不买加杠杠。
胡小丙易经预测
2024-08-05
Replying to
@奔驰豪宅哥最爱
:别接,我奇门遁甲预测还会跌//
@奔驰豪宅哥最爱
:现在接盘TQQQ往上涨幅有超45%,现在接QLD有超30%,诱惑大吗
胡小丙易经预测
2024-07-28
我的水平也不弱,中国奇门遁甲预测第一人,国服第一。一阳道人,100% 胜率
胡小丙易经预测
2024-07-28
我看大家都在圈里吹牛逼,我也来借光吹吹牛[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] 谅解 ,谅解,100% 胜率,奇门遁甲预测。
胡小丙易经预测
2024-07-15
$(.IXIC)$
该跌📉了,七月末绝对下来,立贴为证
胡小丙易经预测
2024-06-18
老虎又来咨询了,座位一个专业从业十五年的咨询师,我来回答一下吧! 1,老虎定位不正确,你是要吃佣金还是要干嘛呢?你的股权结构是什么样子呢?怎么随便给你建议呢? 2、 老虎决策层或者老板现在也不知道自己的盈利点再哪里,想要往哪里走也不知道 3,老虎 app 不应该是 6 组,一般情况下是 4 组,最多是五组,五组都很拥挤了 ,但是搞不懂老虎为什么 6 组还能往上加那么多组,程序员要累死了 4、我咨询一次都是二万块的,哈哈哈哈[捂脸]
胡小丙易经预测
2024-06-18
老虎又来咨询了,座位一个专业从业十五年的咨询师,我来回答一下吧! 1,老虎定位不正确,估计老虎现在想做什么他们决策层还没有想明白或者说他们老板没有想清楚老虎怎么走,要去哪里。 2,老虎 app 不应该是 6 组,一般情况下只能是 4 组,最多是五组,五组都很拥挤了 5,我咨询一次都是二万块的
胡小丙易经预测
2024-06-18
Replying to
@尖沙咀啵嘴
:我觉得吧,更应该看司法官司和征信,这样的话你这种人就没资格了。还高质量?你有多大啊?耽误你交友了?你这么高端你怎么不去参加欧洲选秀啊?//
@尖沙咀啵嘴
:有没有可能发展那种功能,就是根据个人资金量,投资水平、学历的交友功能,毕竟是全球平台,全球的靓仔靓女这么多[哟哟]
胡小丙易经预测
2024-06-14
请问是咨询战略规划吗?如果是的话未来肯定是人工智能量化交易的天下了,你们这种平台吃的是用户量,可惜的是我们的政策是防止资金外流,所以未来十年应该扩展海外市场普通法系国家与大陆法系国家才是正途,以后会有越来越多的的人投身于基金与人工智能,所以这种吃手续费的市场会萎缩,所以老虎应该再基金与保险,人工智能领域深挖。
胡小丙易经预测
2024-06-08
Replying to
@Bourse2022
:是努力交付,也就是一辆也交付不了//
@Bourse2022
:每月交付1辆?
胡小丙易经预测
2024-06-01
没鸟毛梦想,当年老师让我们说自己的梦想,我就因为我说了我想摆地摊卖书被所有人全本人嘲笑,哄堂大笑,老师更是指着我的鼻子骂我没出息,因为同学们都是要当科学家,音乐家,作家,医生,律师,警察,貌似只有我没出息,整个小学都被人嘲笑,讽刺,排斥,感谢我的老师,现在回头看,只有我坚持梦想,摆摊卖书变成了卖课,而我的同学们没有一个成才的,全都给别人打螺丝……
胡小丙易经预测
2023-03-09
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
买跌就完了
胡小丙易经预测
2022-09-18
挺好的,美国人肯定集体诉讼控告拼多多欺诈,立帖为证。
抱歉,原内容已删除
胡小丙易经预测
2022-09-04
不加洗就缩表,通胀是要降下来的。
3.5%是不是美联储的心理关口?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL\">$TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL$</a> 轻轻松松拿捏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL\">$TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL$</a> 轻轻松松拿捏","text":"$TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL$ 轻轻松松拿捏","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/358df5f81a7f4a428b274ecf3a82d6a3","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356737770770504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351426306814136,"gmtCreate":1726836434646,"gmtModify":1726836436497,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5% 还低?","listText":"5% 还低?","text":"5% 还低?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351426306814136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349955937452264,"gmtCreate":1726466452349,"gmtModify":1726466454706,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中秋快乐,桂酒一杯人安好,月饼共食庆团圆。但愿人人都发财,打死不买加杠杠。","listText":"中秋快乐,桂酒一杯人安好,月饼共食庆团圆。但愿人人都发财,打死不买加杠杠。","text":"中秋快乐,桂酒一杯人安好,月饼共食庆团圆。但愿人人都发财,打死不买加杠杠。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349955937452264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335139029848376,"gmtCreate":1722852922340,"gmtModify":1722852927197,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying 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@奔驰豪宅哥最爱:别接,我奇门遁甲预测还会跌//@奔驰豪宅哥最爱:现在接盘TQQQ往上涨幅有超45%,现在接QLD有超30%,诱惑大吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335139029848376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332488679538792,"gmtCreate":1722180905049,"gmtModify":1722180910047,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我的水平也不弱,中国奇门遁甲预测第一人,国服第一。一阳道人,100% 胜率","listText":"我的水平也不弱,中国奇门遁甲预测第一人,国服第一。一阳道人,100% 胜率","text":"我的水平也不弱,中国奇门遁甲预测第一人,国服第一。一阳道人,100% 胜率","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cdf3b1caad2807372c4aa5ced3538d5","width":"1290","height":"2796"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0f20289d23ea01927b940f6bb5f44d","width":"1046","height":"1229"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a0f5f4e632c12525db92fd0795426bb","width":"1290","height":"2796"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332488679538792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332487336173752,"gmtCreate":1722180592858,"gmtModify":1722216686585,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我看大家都在圈里吹牛逼,我也来借光吹吹牛[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] 谅解 ,谅解,100% 胜率,奇门遁甲预测。","listText":"我看大家都在圈里吹牛逼,我也来借光吹吹牛[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] 谅解 ,谅解,100% 胜率,奇门遁甲预测。","text":"我看大家都在圈里吹牛逼,我也来借光吹吹牛[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] 谅解 ,谅解,100% 胜率,奇门遁甲预测。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a0f5f4e632c12525db92fd0795426bb","width":"1290","height":"2796"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6132c722c632d4de3e4cbfa6ada63078","width":"1024","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cdf3b1caad2807372c4aa5ced3538d5","width":"1290","height":"2796"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332487336173752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327783372988440,"gmtCreate":1721057188838,"gmtModify":1721057190308,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 该跌📉了,七月末绝对下来,立贴为证","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 该跌📉了,七月末绝对下来,立贴为证","text":"$(.IXIC)$ 该跌📉了,七月末绝对下来,立贴为证","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327783372988440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318180364280048,"gmtCreate":1718720341040,"gmtModify":1718720345251,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老虎又来咨询了,座位一个专业从业十五年的咨询师,我来回答一下吧! 1,老虎定位不正确,你是要吃佣金还是要干嘛呢?你的股权结构是什么样子呢?怎么随便给你建议呢? 2、 老虎决策层或者老板现在也不知道自己的盈利点再哪里,想要往哪里走也不知道 3,老虎 app 不应该是 6 组,一般情况下是 4 组,最多是五组,五组都很拥挤了 ,但是搞不懂老虎为什么 6 组还能往上加那么多组,程序员要累死了 4、我咨询一次都是二万块的,哈哈哈哈[捂脸]","listText":"老虎又来咨询了,座位一个专业从业十五年的咨询师,我来回答一下吧! 1,老虎定位不正确,你是要吃佣金还是要干嘛呢?你的股权结构是什么样子呢?怎么随便给你建议呢? 2、 老虎决策层或者老板现在也不知道自己的盈利点再哪里,想要往哪里走也不知道 3,老虎 app 不应该是 6 组,一般情况下是 4 组,最多是五组,五组都很拥挤了 ,但是搞不懂老虎为什么 6 组还能往上加那么多组,程序员要累死了 4、我咨询一次都是二万块的,哈哈哈哈[捂脸]","text":"老虎又来咨询了,座位一个专业从业十五年的咨询师,我来回答一下吧! 1,老虎定位不正确,你是要吃佣金还是要干嘛呢?你的股权结构是什么样子呢?怎么随便给你建议呢? 2、 老虎决策层或者老板现在也不知道自己的盈利点再哪里,想要往哪里走也不知道 3,老虎 app 不应该是 6 组,一般情况下是 4 组,最多是五组,五组都很拥挤了 ,但是搞不懂老虎为什么 6 组还能往上加那么多组,程序员要累死了 4、我咨询一次都是二万块的,哈哈哈哈[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318180364280048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318182953594952,"gmtCreate":1718719926040,"gmtModify":1718719928672,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老虎又来咨询了,座位一个专业从业十五年的咨询师,我来回答一下吧! 1,老虎定位不正确,估计老虎现在想做什么他们决策层还没有想明白或者说他们老板没有想清楚老虎怎么走,要去哪里。 2,老虎 app 不应该是 6 组,一般情况下只能是 4 组,最多是五组,五组都很拥挤了 5,我咨询一次都是二万块的","listText":"老虎又来咨询了,座位一个专业从业十五年的咨询师,我来回答一下吧! 1,老虎定位不正确,估计老虎现在想做什么他们决策层还没有想明白或者说他们老板没有想清楚老虎怎么走,要去哪里。 2,老虎 app 不应该是 6 组,一般情况下只能是 4 组,最多是五组,五组都很拥挤了 5,我咨询一次都是二万块的","text":"老虎又来咨询了,座位一个专业从业十五年的咨询师,我来回答一下吧! 1,老虎定位不正确,估计老虎现在想做什么他们决策层还没有想明白或者说他们老板没有想清楚老虎怎么走,要去哪里。 2,老虎 app 不应该是 6 组,一般情况下只能是 4 组,最多是五组,五组都很拥挤了 5,我咨询一次都是二万块的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318182953594952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318181823418536,"gmtCreate":1718719651380,"gmtModify":1718719653917,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4142416961445330\">@尖沙咀啵嘴</a>:我觉得吧,更应该看司法官司和征信,这样的话你这种人就没资格了。还高质量?你有多大啊?耽误你交友了?你这么高端你怎么不去参加欧洲选秀啊?//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4142416961445330\">@尖沙咀啵嘴</a>:有没有可能发展那种功能,就是根据个人资金量,投资水平、学历的交友功能,毕竟是全球平台,全球的靓仔靓女这么多[哟哟]","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4142416961445330\">@尖沙咀啵嘴</a>:我觉得吧,更应该看司法官司和征信,这样的话你这种人就没资格了。还高质量?你有多大啊?耽误你交友了?你这么高端你怎么不去参加欧洲选秀啊?//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4142416961445330\">@尖沙咀啵嘴</a>:有没有可能发展那种功能,就是根据个人资金量,投资水平、学历的交友功能,毕竟是全球平台,全球的靓仔靓女这么多[哟哟]","text":"Replying to @尖沙咀啵嘴:我觉得吧,更应该看司法官司和征信,这样的话你这种人就没资格了。还高质量?你有多大啊?耽误你交友了?你这么高端你怎么不去参加欧洲选秀啊?//@尖沙咀啵嘴:有没有可能发展那种功能,就是根据个人资金量,投资水平、学历的交友功能,毕竟是全球平台,全球的靓仔靓女这么多[哟哟]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318181823418536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316781493330200,"gmtCreate":1718378368910,"gmtModify":1718607527541,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"请问是咨询战略规划吗?如果是的话未来肯定是人工智能量化交易的天下了,你们这种平台吃的是用户量,可惜的是我们的政策是防止资金外流,所以未来十年应该扩展海外市场普通法系国家与大陆法系国家才是正途,以后会有越来越多的的人投身于基金与人工智能,所以这种吃手续费的市场会萎缩,所以老虎应该再基金与保险,人工智能领域深挖。","listText":"请问是咨询战略规划吗?如果是的话未来肯定是人工智能量化交易的天下了,你们这种平台吃的是用户量,可惜的是我们的政策是防止资金外流,所以未来十年应该扩展海外市场普通法系国家与大陆法系国家才是正途,以后会有越来越多的的人投身于基金与人工智能,所以这种吃手续费的市场会萎缩,所以老虎应该再基金与保险,人工智能领域深挖。","text":"请问是咨询战略规划吗?如果是的话未来肯定是人工智能量化交易的天下了,你们这种平台吃的是用户量,可惜的是我们的政策是防止资金外流,所以未来十年应该扩展海外市场普通法系国家与大陆法系国家才是正途,以后会有越来越多的的人投身于基金与人工智能,所以这种吃手续费的市场会萎缩,所以老虎应该再基金与保险,人工智能领域深挖。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316781493330200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314470406492240,"gmtCreate":1717807471555,"gmtModify":1717807473771,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667711366936\">@Bourse2022</a>:是努力交付,也就是一辆也交付不了//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667711366936\">@Bourse2022</a>:每月交付1辆?","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667711366936\">@Bourse2022</a>:是努力交付,也就是一辆也交付不了//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667711366936\">@Bourse2022</a>:每月交付1辆?","text":"Replying to @Bourse2022:是努力交付,也就是一辆也交付不了//@Bourse2022:每月交付1辆?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314470406492240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311875233182000,"gmtCreate":1717175633520,"gmtModify":1717176472535,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没鸟毛梦想,当年老师让我们说自己的梦想,我就因为我说了我想摆地摊卖书被所有人全本人嘲笑,哄堂大笑,老师更是指着我的鼻子骂我没出息,因为同学们都是要当科学家,音乐家,作家,医生,律师,警察,貌似只有我没出息,整个小学都被人嘲笑,讽刺,排斥,感谢我的老师,现在回头看,只有我坚持梦想,摆摊卖书变成了卖课,而我的同学们没有一个成才的,全都给别人打螺丝……","listText":"没鸟毛梦想,当年老师让我们说自己的梦想,我就因为我说了我想摆地摊卖书被所有人全本人嘲笑,哄堂大笑,老师更是指着我的鼻子骂我没出息,因为同学们都是要当科学家,音乐家,作家,医生,律师,警察,貌似只有我没出息,整个小学都被人嘲笑,讽刺,排斥,感谢我的老师,现在回头看,只有我坚持梦想,摆摊卖书变成了卖课,而我的同学们没有一个成才的,全都给别人打螺丝……","text":"没鸟毛梦想,当年老师让我们说自己的梦想,我就因为我说了我想摆地摊卖书被所有人全本人嘲笑,哄堂大笑,老师更是指着我的鼻子骂我没出息,因为同学们都是要当科学家,音乐家,作家,医生,律师,警察,貌似只有我没出息,整个小学都被人嘲笑,讽刺,排斥,感谢我的老师,现在回头看,只有我坚持梦想,摆摊卖书变成了卖课,而我的同学们没有一个成才的,全都给别人打螺丝……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311875233182000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627246120,"gmtCreate":1678376120160,"gmtModify":1678376121354,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 买跌就完了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 买跌就完了","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 买跌就完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627246120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663718595,"gmtCreate":1663462897517,"gmtModify":1663466856229,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"挺好的,美国人肯定集体诉讼控告拼多多欺诈,立帖为证。","listText":"挺好的,美国人肯定集体诉讼控告拼多多欺诈,立帖为证。","text":"挺好的,美国人肯定集体诉讼控告拼多多欺诈,立帖为证。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663718595","repostId":"2267569882","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669813811,"gmtCreate":1662289309533,"gmtModify":1662289310458,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441825629255336","authorIdStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不加洗就缩表,通胀是要降下来的。","listText":"不加洗就缩表,通胀是要降下来的。","text":"不加洗就缩表,通胀是要降下来的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669813811","repostId":"1191824345","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191824345","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662275629,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191824345?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-04 15:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"3.5%是不是美联储的心理关口?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191824345","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"美联储已经“加不起息”了:今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%;上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元,2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>美联储已经“加不起息”了:今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%;上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元,2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3.5%的10Y美债收益率或为美联储心理关口。此外,就业目标终究打败通胀目标,失业率“持续”回升已在路上,年底结束加息为大概率。美债、美股接近左侧,美元见顶需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有一定负面影响。</b></p><p><b>不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储。1)今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%。</b>财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗?这起码是约束财政宽松的理由,而在经济增长放缓后,假若财政难以发力,势必会加剧经济下行压力,并进而引发美联储货币政策转向,2018年就是个很好的例子。<b>2)加息、缩表冲击下,美联储连续巨亏。</b>上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元,而美联储资产负债表规模峰值也仅为89954.9亿美元。2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元后就曾结束加息。</p><p><b>那么,从加息成本的角度看,美联储的心理关口在哪儿?3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口。</b>6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及表态变化有关。5月FOMC上,美联储宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月。但实际上,6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且,7月美联储表态也偏鸽。从数据上看,似乎是在各个期限美债收益率有所回落后,美联储才重新提速缩表。由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%,因此,3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。当然,这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平,而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许,美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。</p><p><b>现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗?用就业目标打败通胀目标,9月FOMC可能是个分水岭。1)</b>美国通胀处于顶部,年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。<b>2)</b>就业目标终将打败通胀目标,一旦失业率持续回升,就业就将成为核心矛盾。8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差,已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。年底结束加息概率上升。<b>3)</b>美联储何时转鸽?我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。8月就业数据公布后,9月加息75BP预期略有降温,但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关,在通胀难以大幅回落之际,表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰,美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际,美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好,所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子,随后转鸽概率就将变大。</p><p><b>市场如何解读?美债与美股均已接近左侧。1)</b>各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。<b>2)</b>美股的最后一跌尚未完成,或仍有10%左右的跌幅,但时间上或接近拐点。<b>3)</b>美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,人民币仍存一定贬值压力,外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有负面影响。</p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><b>一、</b><b>不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储</b></p><p>我们在6月美联储议息会议点评《是时候考虑FED结束加息的条件了》中就曾指出,美联储已经“加不起息”了,但距离加息结束仍欠缺一个理由。与6月观察到的情况相比,在持续加息、缩表之下,目前美联储与财政压力进一步加重。</p><p><b>1)今年美国财政部或将拿出名义GDP的近3%偿还国债利息,为2001年以来之最</b></p><p><b>美国财政部每年要支出多少债务利息?</b>这与两个因素有关,第一是政府杠杆率,第二是债务期限结构或者说是国债久期。如图1所示,2008年金融危机前美国债务利息占总债务(包括州及地方政府)的比重基本上明显低于10年期美债收益率,但金融危机后几乎相当。这一变化与金融危机后美国政府开始增加长期债务有关。不过,这也让我们在匡算美国债务利息支出中找到了锚,美国国债久期约等于10年期美债久期。</p><p><b>那么,今年美国财政部要支付多少债务利息?</b>截至9月2日,10年期美债收益率年内均值为2.57%,Q2美国政府杠杆率为123%。假若上述数据维持至年底,则今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%。该数值已经是2001年以来最高,比2018年的3.05%还要更高。</p><p><b>财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗?</b>我们并不能说,财政成本高企就是美联储结束加息的理由,但这起码是约束财政宽松的理由,而在经济增长放缓后,假若财政难以发力,势必会加剧经济下行压力,并进而引发美联储货币政策转向,2018年就是个很好的例子。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751d0d27e96cd48c1887236ed8cbc30\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2)加息、缩表冲击下,美联储连续巨亏</b></p><p>2022年一季度美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏了3305亿美元,且二季度形势更加严峻,美联储又亏掉了7199亿美元。也即,上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元,而美联储资产负债表规模峰值(5月中旬)也仅为89954.9亿美元。何以巨亏?加息缩表引发美债与MBS收益率飙升。相比之下,而2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元之后就曾结束加息。</p><p><b>那么,从加息成本的角度看,美联储的心理关口在哪儿?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb658898491d7f56123e8de769d16909\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3606db7981cf1a61cdb135034cc99bb7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>二</b><b>、3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口</b></p><p>我们在8月20日报告《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜?》中指出,6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及其表态变化有关。5月FOMC上,美联储曾宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月,9月开始提速至600亿美元美债/月。但实际上,6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且,7月美联储表态整体偏鸽,加息幅度上也没有令市场出现预期差。从数据上看,似乎是在各个期限(特别是10年期)美债收益率有所回落之后,美联储才重新提速缩表的。我们在点评报告《再度转鹰的鲍威尔才是关键》中亦指出,Jackson Hole全球央行会议上鲍威尔态度转鹰也是中期选举前的无奈之举。</p><p>由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%,因此,我们有理由怀疑3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。一旦如此,基准利率也不应明显、持续超过3.5%。当然,这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平,而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许,美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bf069dfaa4a24dff2065dff6b59fcb\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>三、</b><b>现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗?9月FOMC可能是个分水岭</b></p><p><b>首先,美国通胀处于顶部,年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。</b>能源基数抬高、房价增速下降以及二手车等疫后结构性需求放缓共振之下,美国通胀峰值已过,年底到明年初将迎来中枢显著下移。当然,很多朋友会认为,只要核心PCE同比未降至2%下方,美联储就要持续加息,毕竟Jackson Hole会议上鲍威尔也是这样表态的。但事实上,鲍威尔的表态是动态的,2018年上任以来,每隔半年到一年美联储就会重新确立一个新的政策基调。并且,美联储本就有两个政策目标,除了通胀,还有就业。</p><p><b>就业目标终将打败通胀目标,失业率“持续”回升已在路上。</b>我们想象一下,如果每个家庭有一张利润表,收入端由就业等因素决定,成本端受通胀等因素影响。在就业与收入稳定的阶段,成本因素就是利润率的关键。一旦失业进而丧失现金流,那么“找工作开源”与“消耗储蓄节流”之间,更应该的是努力找工作,进而就业就成为了核心矛盾。当前,美联储之所以强调通胀压力,是因为就业尚无压力。但8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差,已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。一旦失业率连续3个月回升就将进入回升趋势,届时美联储势必结束加息。</p><p><b>美联储何时转鸽?我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。</b>8月就业数据公布后,9月加息75BP预期略有降温,但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关,在通胀难以大幅回落之际,表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰,美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际,美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好,所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子,随后转鸽概率就将变大。</p><p><b>四、</b><b>市场如何解读?美债与美股均已接近左侧</b></p><p><b>首先,我们坚持此前的观点,Q4美联储将结束加息,各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。</b>预计11月美联储或将基准利率提升至3.5%附近,随后12月正式结束加息。此外,假若9月FOMC后美联储将逐步转鸽,那么10年期美债收益率大概率将在9月中旬附近在3.5%左右再度见顶随后回落。而2年期美债收益率也有望在10月见顶回落。目前,从时间与空间来看,各期限美债收益率都已经非常接近顶部,左侧看多机会开始显现。</p><p><b>第二,美股的最后一跌尚未完成,或仍有10%左右的跌幅,但时间上或接近拐点。</b>若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价(截至9月2日为0.2%)回升至1%为基准假设,那么标普500指数还有19.0%的跌幅。若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价回升至0.5%为基准假设,那么标普500指数还有8.1%的跌幅。但考虑到9月中下旬10年期美债收益率可能会见顶回落,加上美股下跌速度较急,因此,美股的最终跌幅或在10%附近,且亦有可能已经非常接近低点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86454c6b7a990865a40c0af63b093b93\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>第三,美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,人民币仍存一定贬值压力。</b>我们在《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜》等报告中指出,美元近期走强与欧洲能源危机担忧有关。在G7计划为俄罗斯能源限价的背景下,俄罗斯宣布无限期暂停通过北溪-1号向欧洲供气。我们在报告《欧洲能源危机的可能及影响》中也指出,Q4欧洲爆发能源危机或为大概率。一旦如此,欧元的疲软或将进一步推升美元指数,本周各种风险因素交织之下,美元就曾试探110。当然,如果欧洲能熬过这个冬天,未来再度出现能源危机的概率就会下降。再加上我们预计美联储将于年底结束加息,因此预计美元的顶或在今年底到明年初。这就意味着,未来数月人民币汇率仍有一定贬值压力,外部环境对于人民币计价资产仍是负面因素。</p><p><b>风险提示:</b></p><p>中美货币政策超预期;全球疫情超预期;中美经济超预期。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3.5%是不是美联储的心理关口?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3.5%是不是美联储的心理关口?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-04 15:13 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/73QzmP-YHcoX8-zys9OUVA><strong>招商宏观静思录</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储已经“加不起息”了:今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%;上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元,2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3.5%的10Y美债收益率或为美联储心理关口。此外,就业目标终究打败通胀目标,失业率“持续”回升已在路上,年底结束加息为大概率。美债、美股接近左侧,美元见顶需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,外部环境对人民币计价...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/73QzmP-YHcoX8-zys9OUVA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/73QzmP-YHcoX8-zys9OUVA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191824345","content_text":"美联储已经“加不起息”了:今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%;上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元,2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3.5%的10Y美债收益率或为美联储心理关口。此外,就业目标终究打败通胀目标,失业率“持续”回升已在路上,年底结束加息为大概率。美债、美股接近左侧,美元见顶需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有一定负面影响。不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储。1)今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%。财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗?这起码是约束财政宽松的理由,而在经济增长放缓后,假若财政难以发力,势必会加剧经济下行压力,并进而引发美联储货币政策转向,2018年就是个很好的例子。2)加息、缩表冲击下,美联储连续巨亏。上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元,而美联储资产负债表规模峰值也仅为89954.9亿美元。2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元后就曾结束加息。那么,从加息成本的角度看,美联储的心理关口在哪儿?3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口。6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及表态变化有关。5月FOMC上,美联储宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月。但实际上,6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且,7月美联储表态也偏鸽。从数据上看,似乎是在各个期限美债收益率有所回落后,美联储才重新提速缩表。由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%,因此,3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。当然,这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平,而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许,美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗?用就业目标打败通胀目标,9月FOMC可能是个分水岭。1)美国通胀处于顶部,年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。2)就业目标终将打败通胀目标,一旦失业率持续回升,就业就将成为核心矛盾。8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差,已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。年底结束加息概率上升。3)美联储何时转鸽?我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。8月就业数据公布后,9月加息75BP预期略有降温,但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关,在通胀难以大幅回落之际,表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰,美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际,美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好,所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子,随后转鸽概率就将变大。市场如何解读?美债与美股均已接近左侧。1)各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。2)美股的最后一跌尚未完成,或仍有10%左右的跌幅,但时间上或接近拐点。3)美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,人民币仍存一定贬值压力,外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有负面影响。正文一、不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储我们在6月美联储议息会议点评《是时候考虑FED结束加息的条件了》中就曾指出,美联储已经“加不起息”了,但距离加息结束仍欠缺一个理由。与6月观察到的情况相比,在持续加息、缩表之下,目前美联储与财政压力进一步加重。1)今年美国财政部或将拿出名义GDP的近3%偿还国债利息,为2001年以来之最美国财政部每年要支出多少债务利息?这与两个因素有关,第一是政府杠杆率,第二是债务期限结构或者说是国债久期。如图1所示,2008年金融危机前美国债务利息占总债务(包括州及地方政府)的比重基本上明显低于10年期美债收益率,但金融危机后几乎相当。这一变化与金融危机后美国政府开始增加长期债务有关。不过,这也让我们在匡算美国债务利息支出中找到了锚,美国国债久期约等于10年期美债久期。那么,今年美国财政部要支付多少债务利息?截至9月2日,10年期美债收益率年内均值为2.57%,Q2美国政府杠杆率为123%。假若上述数据维持至年底,则今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%。该数值已经是2001年以来最高,比2018年的3.05%还要更高。财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗?我们并不能说,财政成本高企就是美联储结束加息的理由,但这起码是约束财政宽松的理由,而在经济增长放缓后,假若财政难以发力,势必会加剧经济下行压力,并进而引发美联储货币政策转向,2018年就是个很好的例子。2)加息、缩表冲击下,美联储连续巨亏2022年一季度美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏了3305亿美元,且二季度形势更加严峻,美联储又亏掉了7199亿美元。也即,上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元,而美联储资产负债表规模峰值(5月中旬)也仅为89954.9亿美元。何以巨亏?加息缩表引发美债与MBS收益率飙升。相比之下,而2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元之后就曾结束加息。那么,从加息成本的角度看,美联储的心理关口在哪儿?二、3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口我们在8月20日报告《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜?》中指出,6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及其表态变化有关。5月FOMC上,美联储曾宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月,9月开始提速至600亿美元美债/月。但实际上,6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且,7月美联储表态整体偏鸽,加息幅度上也没有令市场出现预期差。从数据上看,似乎是在各个期限(特别是10年期)美债收益率有所回落之后,美联储才重新提速缩表的。我们在点评报告《再度转鹰的鲍威尔才是关键》中亦指出,Jackson Hole全球央行会议上鲍威尔态度转鹰也是中期选举前的无奈之举。由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%,因此,我们有理由怀疑3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。一旦如此,基准利率也不应明显、持续超过3.5%。当然,这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平,而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许,美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。三、现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗?9月FOMC可能是个分水岭首先,美国通胀处于顶部,年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。能源基数抬高、房价增速下降以及二手车等疫后结构性需求放缓共振之下,美国通胀峰值已过,年底到明年初将迎来中枢显著下移。当然,很多朋友会认为,只要核心PCE同比未降至2%下方,美联储就要持续加息,毕竟Jackson Hole会议上鲍威尔也是这样表态的。但事实上,鲍威尔的表态是动态的,2018年上任以来,每隔半年到一年美联储就会重新确立一个新的政策基调。并且,美联储本就有两个政策目标,除了通胀,还有就业。就业目标终将打败通胀目标,失业率“持续”回升已在路上。我们想象一下,如果每个家庭有一张利润表,收入端由就业等因素决定,成本端受通胀等因素影响。在就业与收入稳定的阶段,成本因素就是利润率的关键。一旦失业进而丧失现金流,那么“找工作开源”与“消耗储蓄节流”之间,更应该的是努力找工作,进而就业就成为了核心矛盾。当前,美联储之所以强调通胀压力,是因为就业尚无压力。但8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差,已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。一旦失业率连续3个月回升就将进入回升趋势,届时美联储势必结束加息。美联储何时转鸽?我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。8月就业数据公布后,9月加息75BP预期略有降温,但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关,在通胀难以大幅回落之际,表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰,美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际,美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好,所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子,随后转鸽概率就将变大。四、市场如何解读?美债与美股均已接近左侧首先,我们坚持此前的观点,Q4美联储将结束加息,各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。预计11月美联储或将基准利率提升至3.5%附近,随后12月正式结束加息。此外,假若9月FOMC后美联储将逐步转鸽,那么10年期美债收益率大概率将在9月中旬附近在3.5%左右再度见顶随后回落。而2年期美债收益率也有望在10月见顶回落。目前,从时间与空间来看,各期限美债收益率都已经非常接近顶部,左侧看多机会开始显现。第二,美股的最后一跌尚未完成,或仍有10%左右的跌幅,但时间上或接近拐点。若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价(截至9月2日为0.2%)回升至1%为基准假设,那么标普500指数还有19.0%的跌幅。若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价回升至0.5%为基准假设,那么标普500指数还有8.1%的跌幅。但考虑到9月中下旬10年期美债收益率可能会见顶回落,加上美股下跌速度较急,因此,美股的最终跌幅或在10%附近,且亦有可能已经非常接近低点。第三,美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,人民币仍存一定贬值压力。我们在《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜》等报告中指出,美元近期走强与欧洲能源危机担忧有关。在G7计划为俄罗斯能源限价的背景下,俄罗斯宣布无限期暂停通过北溪-1号向欧洲供气。我们在报告《欧洲能源危机的可能及影响》中也指出,Q4欧洲爆发能源危机或为大概率。一旦如此,欧元的疲软或将进一步推升美元指数,本周各种风险因素交织之下,美元就曾试探110。当然,如果欧洲能熬过这个冬天,未来再度出现能源危机的概率就会下降。再加上我们预计美联储将于年底结束加息,因此预计美元的顶或在今年底到明年初。这就意味着,未来数月人民币汇率仍有一定贬值压力,外部环境对于人民币计价资产仍是负面因素。风险提示:中美货币政策超预期;全球疫情超预期;中美经济超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":605145894,"gmtCreate":1639135995927,"gmtModify":1639135995927,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[捂脸]","text":"你买call说跌? [捂脸]","html":"你买call说跌? 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胜率","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cdf3b1caad2807372c4aa5ced3538d5","width":"1290","height":"2796"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0f20289d23ea01927b940f6bb5f44d","width":"1046","height":"1229"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a0f5f4e632c12525db92fd0795426bb","width":"1290","height":"2796"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332488679538792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":304824659,"gmtCreate":1605195832671,"gmtModify":1703836734333,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中概股又特么财务造假。","listText":"中概股又特么财务造假。","text":"中概股又特么财务造假。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304824659","repostId":"1161607041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161607041","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1605195693,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161607041?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-12 23:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新能源汽车股持续走高,小鹏、理想、蔚来纷纷创新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161607041","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月12日美股盘中,中概新能源汽车股涨幅扩大,小鹏汽车涨超18%,理想汽车涨近15%,蔚来涨超9%,纷纷刷新盘中新高。此前,小鹏汽车发布三季报引爆新能源汽车行情。财报显示,三季度小鹏汽车营收19.9","content":"<p>11月12日美股盘中,中概新能源汽车股涨幅扩大,小鹏汽车涨超18%,理想汽车涨近15%,蔚来涨超9%,纷纷刷新盘中新高。</p><p>此前,小鹏汽车发布三季报引爆新能源汽车行情。财报显示,三季度小鹏汽车营收19.9亿元,同比增长342%;第三季度汽车交付8578辆,同比增265.8%;第三季度Non-GAAP净亏损8.64亿元,去年同期为7.5亿元;第三季度毛利率为4.6%,2019年同期为-10.1%。同时,预计第四季度营收约为22亿元人民币,预计第四季度汽车交付量约为1万辆。<b>相关阅读:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1197637938\" target=\"_blank\"><b>小鹏汽车第三季度汽车交付8578辆,同比增长265.8%</b></a><b></b></p><p>此外,理想汽车将于明日盘前发布三季度财务报告。</p><p><b>相关阅读:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159977378\" target=\"_blank\"><b>理想汽车财报前瞻:势不可挡,交付量有望出现飞跃</b></a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f621791f7091f557def8d3d134e223\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"476\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af8fbfd005048e432642ca54fcd41db\" tg-width=\"666\" 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新能源汽车股持续走高,小鹏、理想、蔚来纷纷创新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-12 23:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月12日美股盘中,中概新能源汽车股涨幅扩大,小鹏汽车涨超18%,理想汽车涨近15%,蔚来涨超9%,纷纷刷新盘中新高。</p><p>此前,小鹏汽车发布三季报引爆新能源汽车行情。财报显示,三季度小鹏汽车营收19.9亿元,同比增长342%;第三季度汽车交付8578辆,同比增265.8%;第三季度Non-GAAP净亏损8.64亿元,去年同期为7.5亿元;第三季度毛利率为4.6%,2019年同期为-10.1%。同时,预计第四季度营收约为22亿元人民币,预计第四季度汽车交付量约为1万辆。<b>相关阅读:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1197637938\" target=\"_blank\"><b>小鹏汽车第三季度汽车交付8578辆,同比增长265.8%</b></a><b></b></p><p>此外,理想汽车将于明日盘前发布三季度财务报告。</p><p><b>相关阅读:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159977378\" target=\"_blank\"><b>理想汽车财报前瞻:势不可挡,交付量有望出现飞跃</b></a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f621791f7091f557def8d3d134e223\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"476\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af8fbfd005048e432642ca54fcd41db\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"476\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58684740797ecd5bbb5c8635293a7f76\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"476\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84f744795d09d7af7b33d92664a4cdff","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161607041","content_text":"11月12日美股盘中,中概新能源汽车股涨幅扩大,小鹏汽车涨超18%,理想汽车涨近15%,蔚来涨超9%,纷纷刷新盘中新高。此前,小鹏汽车发布三季报引爆新能源汽车行情。财报显示,三季度小鹏汽车营收19.9亿元,同比增长342%;第三季度汽车交付8578辆,同比增265.8%;第三季度Non-GAAP净亏损8.64亿元,去年同期为7.5亿元;第三季度毛利率为4.6%,2019年同期为-10.1%。同时,预计第四季度营收约为22亿元人民币,预计第四季度汽车交付量约为1万辆。相关阅读:小鹏汽车第三季度汽车交付8578辆,同比增长265.8%此外,理想汽车将于明日盘前发布三季度财务报告。相关阅读:理想汽车财报前瞻:势不可挡,交付量有望出现飞跃","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307513489,"gmtCreate":1605592998241,"gmtModify":1703838465545,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"去你大爷的!","listText":"去你大爷的!","text":"去你大爷的!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307513489","repostId":"1141383026","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1141383026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605580650,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141383026?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-17 10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"格兰瑟姆:美股已经泡沫化,未来十年的回报在不断降低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141383026","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"格兰瑟姆强调,美国股市的泡沫已经严重脱离了经济现实,站在当前的节点上,哪怕真正有效的疫苗面世,哪怕国会通过了新的刺激法案,也都无法改变泡沫的属性了。格兰瑟姆在此前曾经成功预见到了三次重大的市场泡沫,即","content":"<blockquote>\n 格兰瑟姆强调,美国股市的泡沫已经严重脱离了经济现实,站在当前的节点上,哪怕真正有效的疫苗面世,哪怕国会通过了新的刺激法案,也都无法改变泡沫的属性了。格兰瑟姆在此前曾经成功预见到了三次重大的市场泡沫,即1989年日本资产价格泡沫,2000年互联网泡沫,以及2008年房市危机。\n</blockquote>\n<p>“涨势越富有投机性,持续时间越长,我们就越能够肯定,那就是个实实在在的泡沫。”美股大选后一路走高,上周再度创下纪录的同时,传奇投资人格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)也再度发声,对现实表达了深度忧虑。</p>\n<p>格兰瑟姆强调,美国股市的泡沫已经严重脱离了经济现实,站在当前的节点上,哪怕真正有效的疫苗面世,哪怕国会通过了新的刺激法案,也都无法改变泡沫的属性了。</p>\n<p>格兰瑟姆表示,美股从3月低点开始,经历了一场“强有力的,迅速的,以及在许多方面都堪称是名副其实的疯狂”的涨势,现在他更加确信,市场是处在泡沫之中了。这位GMO创始人、首席投资策略师断言:“涨势越富有投机性,持续时间越长,我们就越能够肯定,那就是个实实在在的泡沫。”</p>\n<p>6月间,格兰瑟姆就表示了对美股形成泡沫的担忧,当时他建议投资者不要保留任何美股敞口,并且预言说,自己可能正在见证投资生涯中的第四次重大市场泡沫。然而,从他宣布这一判断时至今,标普500指数又上涨了大约14%,格兰瑟姆不得不感叹,投资者的“疯狂行为”只能让他越发认定美国是处在泡沫当中了。</p>\n<p>“现在单单市场上涨都已经无法满足大家了,市场还必须加速上涨。从3月4月之交到现在,市场上涨的速度简直是令人发指。”格兰瑟姆说,现在股市已经拥有了自己的想法,独立于经济现实而运行了。</p>\n<p>“好消息可以让市场上涨,而坏消息居然也可以。”格兰瑟姆指出,“这正是泡沫的特质。当疯狂已经开始,不管什么东西都很难让其停下来了。”</p>\n<p>他补充说,哪怕有了有效的新冠病毒疫苗,哪怕能够有更多的财政刺激出炉,也不足以改变股市是处在泡沫之中的这个现实。</p>\n<p>格兰瑟姆在此前曾经成功预见到了三次重大的市场泡沫,即1989年日本资产价格泡沫,2000年互联网泡沫,以及2008年房市危机。</p>\n<p>周四,他预言说,当下的泡沫行情完全可能再持续一年,但是价格想要再涨上两年,就是“极端不可能”的了。</p>\n<p>“我从来就没有过什么幻觉,我知道自己无法准确预见到泡沫破灭的时间,我原本也不会拿这个去定义成功与否。”格兰瑟姆评论道,“我只是确信,市场迟早有一天会跌到比我建议大家退场时更低的水平。”</p>\n<p>他还补充说,联储的超低利率和廉价货币政策对推高资产价格起到了巨大的影响。</p>\n<p>“有一个现实是你终究无法改变的,这就是高价格资产所能够提供的回报率总是不及低价格资产。”格兰瑟姆表示,“你不可能两头都占着。你要么当下吃个痛快,要么未来细水长流,但是不可能两者兼得。价格当下在不断上涨,其实也就意味着我们在不断付出代价,这代价就是未来十年的回报在不断降低。”</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n格兰瑟姆:美股已经泡沫化,未来十年的回报在不断降低\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-17 10:37 北京时间 <a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201116A0GZSN00><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>格兰瑟姆强调,美国股市的泡沫已经严重脱离了经济现实,站在当前的节点上,哪怕真正有效的疫苗面世,哪怕国会通过了新的刺激法案,也都无法改变泡沫的属性了。格兰瑟姆在此前曾经成功预见到了三次重大的市场泡沫,即1989年日本资产价格泡沫,2000年互联网泡沫,以及2008年房市危机。\n\n“涨势越富有投机性,持续时间越长,我们就越能够肯定,那就是个实实在在的泡沫。”美股大选后一路走高,上周再度创下纪录的同时,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201116A0GZSN00\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201116A0GZSN00","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141383026","content_text":"格兰瑟姆强调,美国股市的泡沫已经严重脱离了经济现实,站在当前的节点上,哪怕真正有效的疫苗面世,哪怕国会通过了新的刺激法案,也都无法改变泡沫的属性了。格兰瑟姆在此前曾经成功预见到了三次重大的市场泡沫,即1989年日本资产价格泡沫,2000年互联网泡沫,以及2008年房市危机。\n\n“涨势越富有投机性,持续时间越长,我们就越能够肯定,那就是个实实在在的泡沫。”美股大选后一路走高,上周再度创下纪录的同时,传奇投资人格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)也再度发声,对现实表达了深度忧虑。\n格兰瑟姆强调,美国股市的泡沫已经严重脱离了经济现实,站在当前的节点上,哪怕真正有效的疫苗面世,哪怕国会通过了新的刺激法案,也都无法改变泡沫的属性了。\n格兰瑟姆表示,美股从3月低点开始,经历了一场“强有力的,迅速的,以及在许多方面都堪称是名副其实的疯狂”的涨势,现在他更加确信,市场是处在泡沫之中了。这位GMO创始人、首席投资策略师断言:“涨势越富有投机性,持续时间越长,我们就越能够肯定,那就是个实实在在的泡沫。”\n6月间,格兰瑟姆就表示了对美股形成泡沫的担忧,当时他建议投资者不要保留任何美股敞口,并且预言说,自己可能正在见证投资生涯中的第四次重大市场泡沫。然而,从他宣布这一判断时至今,标普500指数又上涨了大约14%,格兰瑟姆不得不感叹,投资者的“疯狂行为”只能让他越发认定美国是处在泡沫当中了。\n“现在单单市场上涨都已经无法满足大家了,市场还必须加速上涨。从3月4月之交到现在,市场上涨的速度简直是令人发指。”格兰瑟姆说,现在股市已经拥有了自己的想法,独立于经济现实而运行了。\n“好消息可以让市场上涨,而坏消息居然也可以。”格兰瑟姆指出,“这正是泡沫的特质。当疯狂已经开始,不管什么东西都很难让其停下来了。”\n他补充说,哪怕有了有效的新冠病毒疫苗,哪怕能够有更多的财政刺激出炉,也不足以改变股市是处在泡沫之中的这个现实。\n格兰瑟姆在此前曾经成功预见到了三次重大的市场泡沫,即1989年日本资产价格泡沫,2000年互联网泡沫,以及2008年房市危机。\n周四,他预言说,当下的泡沫行情完全可能再持续一年,但是价格想要再涨上两年,就是“极端不可能”的了。\n“我从来就没有过什么幻觉,我知道自己无法准确预见到泡沫破灭的时间,我原本也不会拿这个去定义成功与否。”格兰瑟姆评论道,“我只是确信,市场迟早有一天会跌到比我建议大家退场时更低的水平。”\n他还补充说,联储的超低利率和廉价货币政策对推高资产价格起到了巨大的影响。\n“有一个现实是你终究无法改变的,这就是高价格资产所能够提供的回报率总是不及低价格资产。”格兰瑟姆表示,“你不可能两头都占着。你要么当下吃个痛快,要么未来细水长流,但是不可能两者兼得。价格当下在不断上涨,其实也就意味着我们在不断付出代价,这代价就是未来十年的回报在不断降低。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316781493330200,"gmtCreate":1718378368910,"gmtModify":1718607527541,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"请问是咨询战略规划吗?如果是的话未来肯定是人工智能量化交易的天下了,你们这种平台吃的是用户量,可惜的是我们的政策是防止资金外流,所以未来十年应该扩展海外市场普通法系国家与大陆法系国家才是正途,以后会有越来越多的的人投身于基金与人工智能,所以这种吃手续费的市场会萎缩,所以老虎应该再基金与保险,人工智能领域深挖。","listText":"请问是咨询战略规划吗?如果是的话未来肯定是人工智能量化交易的天下了,你们这种平台吃的是用户量,可惜的是我们的政策是防止资金外流,所以未来十年应该扩展海外市场普通法系国家与大陆法系国家才是正途,以后会有越来越多的的人投身于基金与人工智能,所以这种吃手续费的市场会萎缩,所以老虎应该再基金与保险,人工智能领域深挖。","text":"请问是咨询战略规划吗?如果是的话未来肯定是人工智能量化交易的天下了,你们这种平台吃的是用户量,可惜的是我们的政策是防止资金外流,所以未来十年应该扩展海外市场普通法系国家与大陆法系国家才是正途,以后会有越来越多的的人投身于基金与人工智能,所以这种吃手续费的市场会萎缩,所以老虎应该再基金与保险,人工智能领域深挖。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316781493330200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335367891,"gmtCreate":1610533405913,"gmtModify":1703745004262,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" 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美国是允许个人破产的,中国不允许,所以花呗在中国可以,在美国不行。","text":"美国是允许个人破产的,中国不允许,所以花呗在中国可以,在美国不行。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335367891","repostId":"1173015155","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301729484,"gmtCreate":1603771329648,"gmtModify":1703830642489,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"马云遮一下发财了,直接亚洲首富了","listText":"马云遮一下发财了,直接亚洲首富了","text":"马云遮一下发财了,直接亚洲首富了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301729484","repostId":"1154269255","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405646588252720,"gmtCreate":1740061667485,"gmtModify":1740061671581,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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为你安排,为你守候(。・ω・。)ノ♡","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec4cc3cbc4c23cc5687d99c9ffd481e","width":"1092","height":"1570"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405646588252720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327783372988440,"gmtCreate":1721057188838,"gmtModify":1721057190308,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 该跌📉了,七月末绝对下来,立贴为证","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 该跌📉了,七月末绝对下来,立贴为证","text":"$(.IXIC)$ 该跌📉了,七月末绝对下来,立贴为证","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327783372988440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663718595,"gmtCreate":1663462897517,"gmtModify":1663466856229,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"挺好的,美国人肯定集体诉讼控告拼多多欺诈,立帖为证。","listText":"挺好的,美国人肯定集体诉讼控告拼多多欺诈,立帖为证。","text":"挺好的,美国人肯定集体诉讼控告拼多多欺诈,立帖为证。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663718595","repostId":"2267569882","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669813811,"gmtCreate":1662289309533,"gmtModify":1662289310458,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不加洗就缩表,通胀是要降下来的。","listText":"不加洗就缩表,通胀是要降下来的。","text":"不加洗就缩表,通胀是要降下来的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669813811","repostId":"1191824345","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191824345","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662275629,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191824345?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-04 15:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"3.5%是不是美联储的心理关口?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191824345","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"美联储已经“加不起息”了:今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%;上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元,2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>美联储已经“加不起息”了:今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%;上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元,2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3.5%的10Y美债收益率或为美联储心理关口。此外,就业目标终究打败通胀目标,失业率“持续”回升已在路上,年底结束加息为大概率。美债、美股接近左侧,美元见顶需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有一定负面影响。</b></p><p><b>不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储。1)今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%。</b>财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗?这起码是约束财政宽松的理由,而在经济增长放缓后,假若财政难以发力,势必会加剧经济下行压力,并进而引发美联储货币政策转向,2018年就是个很好的例子。<b>2)加息、缩表冲击下,美联储连续巨亏。</b>上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元,而美联储资产负债表规模峰值也仅为89954.9亿美元。2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元后就曾结束加息。</p><p><b>那么,从加息成本的角度看,美联储的心理关口在哪儿?3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口。</b>6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及表态变化有关。5月FOMC上,美联储宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月。但实际上,6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且,7月美联储表态也偏鸽。从数据上看,似乎是在各个期限美债收益率有所回落后,美联储才重新提速缩表。由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%,因此,3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。当然,这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平,而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许,美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。</p><p><b>现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗?用就业目标打败通胀目标,9月FOMC可能是个分水岭。1)</b>美国通胀处于顶部,年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。<b>2)</b>就业目标终将打败通胀目标,一旦失业率持续回升,就业就将成为核心矛盾。8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差,已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。年底结束加息概率上升。<b>3)</b>美联储何时转鸽?我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。8月就业数据公布后,9月加息75BP预期略有降温,但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关,在通胀难以大幅回落之际,表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰,美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际,美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好,所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子,随后转鸽概率就将变大。</p><p><b>市场如何解读?美债与美股均已接近左侧。1)</b>各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。<b>2)</b>美股的最后一跌尚未完成,或仍有10%左右的跌幅,但时间上或接近拐点。<b>3)</b>美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,人民币仍存一定贬值压力,外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有负面影响。</p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><b>一、</b><b>不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储</b></p><p>我们在6月美联储议息会议点评《是时候考虑FED结束加息的条件了》中就曾指出,美联储已经“加不起息”了,但距离加息结束仍欠缺一个理由。与6月观察到的情况相比,在持续加息、缩表之下,目前美联储与财政压力进一步加重。</p><p><b>1)今年美国财政部或将拿出名义GDP的近3%偿还国债利息,为2001年以来之最</b></p><p><b>美国财政部每年要支出多少债务利息?</b>这与两个因素有关,第一是政府杠杆率,第二是债务期限结构或者说是国债久期。如图1所示,2008年金融危机前美国债务利息占总债务(包括州及地方政府)的比重基本上明显低于10年期美债收益率,但金融危机后几乎相当。这一变化与金融危机后美国政府开始增加长期债务有关。不过,这也让我们在匡算美国债务利息支出中找到了锚,美国国债久期约等于10年期美债久期。</p><p><b>那么,今年美国财政部要支付多少债务利息?</b>截至9月2日,10年期美债收益率年内均值为2.57%,Q2美国政府杠杆率为123%。假若上述数据维持至年底,则今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%。该数值已经是2001年以来最高,比2018年的3.05%还要更高。</p><p><b>财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗?</b>我们并不能说,财政成本高企就是美联储结束加息的理由,但这起码是约束财政宽松的理由,而在经济增长放缓后,假若财政难以发力,势必会加剧经济下行压力,并进而引发美联储货币政策转向,2018年就是个很好的例子。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751d0d27e96cd48c1887236ed8cbc30\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2)加息、缩表冲击下,美联储连续巨亏</b></p><p>2022年一季度美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏了3305亿美元,且二季度形势更加严峻,美联储又亏掉了7199亿美元。也即,上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元,而美联储资产负债表规模峰值(5月中旬)也仅为89954.9亿美元。何以巨亏?加息缩表引发美债与MBS收益率飙升。相比之下,而2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元之后就曾结束加息。</p><p><b>那么,从加息成本的角度看,美联储的心理关口在哪儿?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb658898491d7f56123e8de769d16909\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3606db7981cf1a61cdb135034cc99bb7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>二</b><b>、3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口</b></p><p>我们在8月20日报告《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜?》中指出,6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及其表态变化有关。5月FOMC上,美联储曾宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月,9月开始提速至600亿美元美债/月。但实际上,6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且,7月美联储表态整体偏鸽,加息幅度上也没有令市场出现预期差。从数据上看,似乎是在各个期限(特别是10年期)美债收益率有所回落之后,美联储才重新提速缩表的。我们在点评报告《再度转鹰的鲍威尔才是关键》中亦指出,Jackson Hole全球央行会议上鲍威尔态度转鹰也是中期选举前的无奈之举。</p><p>由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%,因此,我们有理由怀疑3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。一旦如此,基准利率也不应明显、持续超过3.5%。当然,这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平,而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许,美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bf069dfaa4a24dff2065dff6b59fcb\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>三、</b><b>现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗?9月FOMC可能是个分水岭</b></p><p><b>首先,美国通胀处于顶部,年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。</b>能源基数抬高、房价增速下降以及二手车等疫后结构性需求放缓共振之下,美国通胀峰值已过,年底到明年初将迎来中枢显著下移。当然,很多朋友会认为,只要核心PCE同比未降至2%下方,美联储就要持续加息,毕竟Jackson Hole会议上鲍威尔也是这样表态的。但事实上,鲍威尔的表态是动态的,2018年上任以来,每隔半年到一年美联储就会重新确立一个新的政策基调。并且,美联储本就有两个政策目标,除了通胀,还有就业。</p><p><b>就业目标终将打败通胀目标,失业率“持续”回升已在路上。</b>我们想象一下,如果每个家庭有一张利润表,收入端由就业等因素决定,成本端受通胀等因素影响。在就业与收入稳定的阶段,成本因素就是利润率的关键。一旦失业进而丧失现金流,那么“找工作开源”与“消耗储蓄节流”之间,更应该的是努力找工作,进而就业就成为了核心矛盾。当前,美联储之所以强调通胀压力,是因为就业尚无压力。但8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差,已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。一旦失业率连续3个月回升就将进入回升趋势,届时美联储势必结束加息。</p><p><b>美联储何时转鸽?我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。</b>8月就业数据公布后,9月加息75BP预期略有降温,但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关,在通胀难以大幅回落之际,表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰,美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际,美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好,所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子,随后转鸽概率就将变大。</p><p><b>四、</b><b>市场如何解读?美债与美股均已接近左侧</b></p><p><b>首先,我们坚持此前的观点,Q4美联储将结束加息,各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。</b>预计11月美联储或将基准利率提升至3.5%附近,随后12月正式结束加息。此外,假若9月FOMC后美联储将逐步转鸽,那么10年期美债收益率大概率将在9月中旬附近在3.5%左右再度见顶随后回落。而2年期美债收益率也有望在10月见顶回落。目前,从时间与空间来看,各期限美债收益率都已经非常接近顶部,左侧看多机会开始显现。</p><p><b>第二,美股的最后一跌尚未完成,或仍有10%左右的跌幅,但时间上或接近拐点。</b>若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价(截至9月2日为0.2%)回升至1%为基准假设,那么标普500指数还有19.0%的跌幅。若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价回升至0.5%为基准假设,那么标普500指数还有8.1%的跌幅。但考虑到9月中下旬10年期美债收益率可能会见顶回落,加上美股下跌速度较急,因此,美股的最终跌幅或在10%附近,且亦有可能已经非常接近低点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86454c6b7a990865a40c0af63b093b93\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>第三,美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,人民币仍存一定贬值压力。</b>我们在《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜》等报告中指出,美元近期走强与欧洲能源危机担忧有关。在G7计划为俄罗斯能源限价的背景下,俄罗斯宣布无限期暂停通过北溪-1号向欧洲供气。我们在报告《欧洲能源危机的可能及影响》中也指出,Q4欧洲爆发能源危机或为大概率。一旦如此,欧元的疲软或将进一步推升美元指数,本周各种风险因素交织之下,美元就曾试探110。当然,如果欧洲能熬过这个冬天,未来再度出现能源危机的概率就会下降。再加上我们预计美联储将于年底结束加息,因此预计美元的顶或在今年底到明年初。这就意味着,未来数月人民币汇率仍有一定贬值压力,外部环境对于人民币计价资产仍是负面因素。</p><p><b>风险提示:</b></p><p>中美货币政策超预期;全球疫情超预期;中美经济超预期。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3.5%是不是美联储的心理关口?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3.5%是不是美联储的心理关口?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-04 15:13 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/73QzmP-YHcoX8-zys9OUVA><strong>招商宏观静思录</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储已经“加不起息”了:今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%;上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元,2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3.5%的10Y美债收益率或为美联储心理关口。此外,就业目标终究打败通胀目标,失业率“持续”回升已在路上,年底结束加息为大概率。美债、美股接近左侧,美元见顶需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,外部环境对人民币计价...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/73QzmP-YHcoX8-zys9OUVA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/73QzmP-YHcoX8-zys9OUVA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191824345","content_text":"美联储已经“加不起息”了:今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%;上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元,2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3.5%的10Y美债收益率或为美联储心理关口。此外,就业目标终究打败通胀目标,失业率“持续”回升已在路上,年底结束加息为大概率。美债、美股接近左侧,美元见顶需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有一定负面影响。不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储。1)今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%,高于2018年的3.05%。财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗?这起码是约束财政宽松的理由,而在经济增长放缓后,假若财政难以发力,势必会加剧经济下行压力,并进而引发美联储货币政策转向,2018年就是个很好的例子。2)加息、缩表冲击下,美联储连续巨亏。上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元,而美联储资产负债表规模峰值也仅为89954.9亿美元。2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元后就曾结束加息。那么,从加息成本的角度看,美联储的心理关口在哪儿?3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口。6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及表态变化有关。5月FOMC上,美联储宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月。但实际上,6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且,7月美联储表态也偏鸽。从数据上看,似乎是在各个期限美债收益率有所回落后,美联储才重新提速缩表。由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%,因此,3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。当然,这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平,而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许,美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗?用就业目标打败通胀目标,9月FOMC可能是个分水岭。1)美国通胀处于顶部,年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。2)就业目标终将打败通胀目标,一旦失业率持续回升,就业就将成为核心矛盾。8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差,已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。年底结束加息概率上升。3)美联储何时转鸽?我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。8月就业数据公布后,9月加息75BP预期略有降温,但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关,在通胀难以大幅回落之际,表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰,美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际,美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好,所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子,随后转鸽概率就将变大。市场如何解读?美债与美股均已接近左侧。1)各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。2)美股的最后一跌尚未完成,或仍有10%左右的跌幅,但时间上或接近拐点。3)美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,人民币仍存一定贬值压力,外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有负面影响。正文一、不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储我们在6月美联储议息会议点评《是时候考虑FED结束加息的条件了》中就曾指出,美联储已经“加不起息”了,但距离加息结束仍欠缺一个理由。与6月观察到的情况相比,在持续加息、缩表之下,目前美联储与财政压力进一步加重。1)今年美国财政部或将拿出名义GDP的近3%偿还国债利息,为2001年以来之最美国财政部每年要支出多少债务利息?这与两个因素有关,第一是政府杠杆率,第二是债务期限结构或者说是国债久期。如图1所示,2008年金融危机前美国债务利息占总债务(包括州及地方政府)的比重基本上明显低于10年期美债收益率,但金融危机后几乎相当。这一变化与金融危机后美国政府开始增加长期债务有关。不过,这也让我们在匡算美国债务利息支出中找到了锚,美国国债久期约等于10年期美债久期。那么,今年美国财政部要支付多少债务利息?截至9月2日,10年期美债收益率年内均值为2.57%,Q2美国政府杠杆率为123%。假若上述数据维持至年底,则今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%。该数值已经是2001年以来最高,比2018年的3.05%还要更高。财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗?我们并不能说,财政成本高企就是美联储结束加息的理由,但这起码是约束财政宽松的理由,而在经济增长放缓后,假若财政难以发力,势必会加剧经济下行压力,并进而引发美联储货币政策转向,2018年就是个很好的例子。2)加息、缩表冲击下,美联储连续巨亏2022年一季度美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏了3305亿美元,且二季度形势更加严峻,美联储又亏掉了7199亿美元。也即,上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元,而美联储资产负债表规模峰值(5月中旬)也仅为89954.9亿美元。何以巨亏?加息缩表引发美债与MBS收益率飙升。相比之下,而2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元之后就曾结束加息。那么,从加息成本的角度看,美联储的心理关口在哪儿?二、3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口我们在8月20日报告《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜?》中指出,6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及其表态变化有关。5月FOMC上,美联储曾宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月,9月开始提速至600亿美元美债/月。但实际上,6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且,7月美联储表态整体偏鸽,加息幅度上也没有令市场出现预期差。从数据上看,似乎是在各个期限(特别是10年期)美债收益率有所回落之后,美联储才重新提速缩表的。我们在点评报告《再度转鹰的鲍威尔才是关键》中亦指出,Jackson Hole全球央行会议上鲍威尔态度转鹰也是中期选举前的无奈之举。由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%,因此,我们有理由怀疑3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。一旦如此,基准利率也不应明显、持续超过3.5%。当然,这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平,而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许,美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。三、现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗?9月FOMC可能是个分水岭首先,美国通胀处于顶部,年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。能源基数抬高、房价增速下降以及二手车等疫后结构性需求放缓共振之下,美国通胀峰值已过,年底到明年初将迎来中枢显著下移。当然,很多朋友会认为,只要核心PCE同比未降至2%下方,美联储就要持续加息,毕竟Jackson Hole会议上鲍威尔也是这样表态的。但事实上,鲍威尔的表态是动态的,2018年上任以来,每隔半年到一年美联储就会重新确立一个新的政策基调。并且,美联储本就有两个政策目标,除了通胀,还有就业。就业目标终将打败通胀目标,失业率“持续”回升已在路上。我们想象一下,如果每个家庭有一张利润表,收入端由就业等因素决定,成本端受通胀等因素影响。在就业与收入稳定的阶段,成本因素就是利润率的关键。一旦失业进而丧失现金流,那么“找工作开源”与“消耗储蓄节流”之间,更应该的是努力找工作,进而就业就成为了核心矛盾。当前,美联储之所以强调通胀压力,是因为就业尚无压力。但8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差,已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。一旦失业率连续3个月回升就将进入回升趋势,届时美联储势必结束加息。美联储何时转鸽?我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。8月就业数据公布后,9月加息75BP预期略有降温,但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关,在通胀难以大幅回落之际,表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰,美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际,美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好,所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子,随后转鸽概率就将变大。四、市场如何解读?美债与美股均已接近左侧首先,我们坚持此前的观点,Q4美联储将结束加息,各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。预计11月美联储或将基准利率提升至3.5%附近,随后12月正式结束加息。此外,假若9月FOMC后美联储将逐步转鸽,那么10年期美债收益率大概率将在9月中旬附近在3.5%左右再度见顶随后回落。而2年期美债收益率也有望在10月见顶回落。目前,从时间与空间来看,各期限美债收益率都已经非常接近顶部,左侧看多机会开始显现。第二,美股的最后一跌尚未完成,或仍有10%左右的跌幅,但时间上或接近拐点。若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价(截至9月2日为0.2%)回升至1%为基准假设,那么标普500指数还有19.0%的跌幅。若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价回升至0.5%为基准假设,那么标普500指数还有8.1%的跌幅。但考虑到9月中下旬10年期美债收益率可能会见顶回落,加上美股下跌速度较急,因此,美股的最终跌幅或在10%附近,且亦有可能已经非常接近低点。第三,美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除,人民币仍存一定贬值压力。我们在《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜》等报告中指出,美元近期走强与欧洲能源危机担忧有关。在G7计划为俄罗斯能源限价的背景下,俄罗斯宣布无限期暂停通过北溪-1号向欧洲供气。我们在报告《欧洲能源危机的可能及影响》中也指出,Q4欧洲爆发能源危机或为大概率。一旦如此,欧元的疲软或将进一步推升美元指数,本周各种风险因素交织之下,美元就曾试探110。当然,如果欧洲能熬过这个冬天,未来再度出现能源危机的概率就会下降。再加上我们预计美联储将于年底结束加息,因此预计美元的顶或在今年底到明年初。这就意味着,未来数月人民币汇率仍有一定贬值压力,外部环境对于人民币计价资产仍是负面因素。风险提示:中美货币政策超预期;全球疫情超预期;中美经济超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692093152,"gmtCreate":1640787630326,"gmtModify":1640787630326,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"沃尔玛的服务实在不好,产品良莠不齐,而且面对好事多和亚马逊的围堵绞杀实在乏力,在这沃尔玛产品供应链过于繁琐。商品置换率太低,很多商品临近过期。资金回笼的又慢,在国内更是面临拼多多,京东和阿里巴巴的绞杀,去过国内沃尔玛的都知道,人少的可怜,价格打折的又少,所以沃尔玛面对中国14亿的市场不好做,面对欧美的市场更不好做。","listText":"沃尔玛的服务实在不好,产品良莠不齐,而且面对好事多和亚马逊的围堵绞杀实在乏力,在这沃尔玛产品供应链过于繁琐。商品置换率太低,很多商品临近过期。资金回笼的又慢,在国内更是面临拼多多,京东和阿里巴巴的绞杀,去过国内沃尔玛的都知道,人少的可怜,价格打折的又少,所以沃尔玛面对中国14亿的市场不好做,面对欧美的市场更不好做。","text":"沃尔玛的服务实在不好,产品良莠不齐,而且面对好事多和亚马逊的围堵绞杀实在乏力,在这沃尔玛产品供应链过于繁琐。商品置换率太低,很多商品临近过期。资金回笼的又慢,在国内更是面临拼多多,京东和阿里巴巴的绞杀,去过国内沃尔玛的都知道,人少的可怜,价格打折的又少,所以沃尔玛面对中国14亿的市场不好做,面对欧美的市场更不好做。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692093152","repostId":"1140113595","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":412359786414128,"gmtCreate":1741708495682,"gmtModify":1741708916744,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我以前就告诉自己不要加杠杆,可还是没忍住诱惑,差点没爆仓,幸亏今天涨回去一点","listText":"我以前就告诉自己不要加杠杆,可还是没忍住诱惑,差点没爆仓,幸亏今天涨回去一点","text":"我以前就告诉自己不要加杠杆,可还是没忍住诱惑,差点没爆仓,幸亏今天涨回去一点","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf74c6c4b47b7e1e39bcf707cb866586"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/412359786414128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361702387191960,"gmtCreate":1729339677941,"gmtModify":1729339680146,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当然是要投资赚钱,只要不买带杠杆的东西,早发都会是富翁。","listText":"当然是要投资赚钱,只要不买带杠杆的东西,早发都会是富翁。","text":"当然是要投资赚钱,只要不买带杠杆的东西,早发都会是富翁。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361702387191960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361701933273416,"gmtCreate":1729339574055,"gmtModify":1729339576169,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是自相矛盾的话题,赚钱就是投资,投资即是赚钱","listText":"这是自相矛盾的话题,赚钱就是投资,投资即是赚钱","text":"这是自相矛盾的话题,赚钱就是投资,投资即是赚钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361701933273416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356737770770504,"gmtCreate":1728103647975,"gmtModify":1728104842851,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL\">$TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL$</a> 轻轻松松拿捏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL\">$TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL$</a> 轻轻松松拿捏","text":"$TQQQ 20260116 120.0 CALL$ 轻轻松松拿捏","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/358df5f81a7f4a428b274ecf3a82d6a3","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356737770770504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351426306814136,"gmtCreate":1726836434646,"gmtModify":1726836436497,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5% 还低?","listText":"5% 还低?","text":"5% 还低?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351426306814136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349955937452264,"gmtCreate":1726466452349,"gmtModify":1726466454706,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中秋快乐,桂酒一杯人安好,月饼共食庆团圆。但愿人人都发财,打死不买加杠杠。","listText":"中秋快乐,桂酒一杯人安好,月饼共食庆团圆。但愿人人都发财,打死不买加杠杠。","text":"中秋快乐,桂酒一杯人安好,月饼共食庆团圆。但愿人人都发财,打死不买加杠杠。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349955937452264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335139029848376,"gmtCreate":1722852922340,"gmtModify":1722852927197,"author":{"id":"3441825629255336","authorId":"3441825629255336","name":"胡小丙易经预测","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1763b4d13013ff9de6866e5d0e8f20","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3441825629255336","idStr":"3441825629255336"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3546984011026931\">@奔驰豪宅哥最爱</a>:别接,我奇门遁甲预测还会跌//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3546984011026931\">@奔驰豪宅哥最爱</a>:现在接盘TQQQ往上涨幅有超45%,现在接QLD有超30%,诱惑大吗","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3546984011026931\">@奔驰豪宅哥最爱</a>:别接,我奇门遁甲预测还会跌//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3546984011026931\">@奔驰豪宅哥最爱</a>:现在接盘TQQQ往上涨幅有超45%,现在接QLD有超30%,诱惑大吗","text":"Replying to 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