牛虎2017的个人主页 - 老虎社区

牛虎2017

牛虎2017

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IP属地：安徽

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4主题

0勋章

2020-03-26

$波音(BA)$美利坚合众国万岁，让我在A股赔的全赚回来

2020-05-15

$Alpha Pro Tech Ltd(APT)$昨天发生什么了吗？我是不是错过了什么

2020-03-11

$LifeSci Acquisition(LSACU)$成交量呢？是停牌了吗？

2020-06-09

$华住(HTHT)$当前这种局面还有人做多？

2020-05-07

$波音(BA)$感觉要二次探底了，出来看情况[微笑]

2020-06-09

$MFA Financial(MFA)$盘前大跌了，会不会打到3元以下

2020-04-03

$波音(BA)$关于期权问一下，如果我买的看涨期权，到期了我不行权，但没人接手怎么办，必须买股么？

2020-03-13

$Yunhong International(ZGYHU)$运鸿国际？算我孤陋寡闻，都没听过

2020-06-10

$MFA Financial(MFA)$刚刚看到的一段话奉献给各位当股市涨得又快又猛的时候，总会有越来越多的散户争先恐后地入场追涨。当下的美国股市同样如此。越来越多的证据表明，散户买盘已经成为那些曾大幅贬值的股票近期价格猛涨的关键推手。新英格兰投资和退休集团助理投资顾问John Ham认为，在近期价格飞涨的股票中，有一些纯粹是买盘推动。狂热的买单对个股交易影响巨大，尤其是航空股、游轮股以及低价股。[你懂的]

2020-06-10

$Alpha Pro Tech Ltd(APT)$期权15元堆了好多好多人[财迷]

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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A股：</b></p><p>5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。</p><p><b>港股：</b></p><p>照常交易。</p><p><b>美股：</b></p><p>照常交易。</p><p><b>英股：</b></p><p>5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank&nbsp;holiday，英股休市一日</p><p><b>新加坡市场：</b></p><p>照常交易。</p><p><b>澳大利亚市场：</b></p><p>照常交易。</p><p><b>沪股通、深股通：</b></p><p>5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。</p><p><b>港股通：</b></p><p>4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。</p><p>祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4034,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":954098388,"gmtCreate":1592574909944,"gmtModify":1704199804117,"author":{"id":"3444730795649502","authorId":"3444730795649502","name":"牛虎2017","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce656fca3b9abee58b18c9e4149e10e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3444730795649502","authorIdStr":"3444730795649502"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MFA\">MFA金融</a>第一季度每股收益$(2.02)，GAAP账面价值$4.34/股，非GAAP账面价值$4.09/股</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>MFA Financial Q1 EPS $(2.02), GAAP Book Value $4.34/Share, Non-GAAP Book Value $4.09/Share<blockquote>MFA Financial第一季度EPS$(2.02)，GAAP账面价值4.34美元/股，非GAAP账面价值4.09美元/股</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMFA Financial Q1 EPS $(2.02), GAAP Book Value $4.34/Share, Non-GAAP Book Value $4.09/Share<blockquote>MFA Financial第一季度EPS$(2.02)，GAAP账面价值4.34美元/股，非GAAP账面价值4.09美元/股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2020-06-16 20:41</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MFA\">MFA Financial</a> Q1 EPS $(2.02), GAAP Book Value $4.34/Share, Non-GAAP Book Value $4.09/Share</p><p><blockquote><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MFA\">MFA金融</a>第一季度每股收益$(2.02)，GAAP账面价值$4.34/股，非GAAP账面价值$4.09/股</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MFA":"MFA Financial","AA":"美国铝业"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/node/16262440","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2043363701","content_text":"MFA Financial Q1 EPS $(2.02), GAAP Book Value $4.34/Share, Non-GAAP Book Value $4.09/Share","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MFA":1,"AA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952686448,"gmtCreate":1591966395484,"gmtModify":1704197775915,"author":{"id":"3444730795649502","authorId":"3444730795649502","name":"牛虎2017","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce656fca3b9abee58b18c9e4149e10e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3444730795649502","authorIdStr":"3444730795649502"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MFA\">$MFA Financial(MFA)$</a>节奏妥妥的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MFA\">$MFA Financial(MFA)$</a>节奏妥妥的","text":"$MFA Financial(MFA)$节奏妥妥的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952686448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952085725,"gmtCreate":1591804145567,"gmtModify":1704197092568,"author":{"id":"3444730795649502","authorId":"3444730795649502","name":"牛虎2017","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce656fca3b9abee58b18c9e4149e10e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3444730795649502","authorIdStr":"3444730795649502"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MFA\">$MFA Financial(MFA)$</a>刚刚看到的一段话 奉献给各位&nbsp;当股市涨得又快又猛的时候，总会有越来越多的散户争先恐后地入场追涨。当下的美国股市同样如此。越来越多的证据表明，散户买盘已经成为那些曾大幅贬值的股票近期价格猛涨的关键推手。新英格兰投资和退休集团助理投资顾问John Ham认为，在近期价格飞涨的股票中，有一些纯粹是买盘推动。狂热的买单对个股交易影响巨大，尤其是航空股、游轮股以及低价股。[你懂的]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MFA\">$MFA Financial(MFA)$</a>刚刚看到的一段话 奉献给各位&nbsp;当股市涨得又快又猛的时候，总会有越来越多的散户争先恐后地入场追涨。当下的美国股市同样如此。越来越多的证据表明，散户买盘已经成为那些曾大幅贬值的股票近期价格猛涨的关键推手。新英格兰投资和退休集团助理投资顾问John Ham认为，在近期价格飞涨的股票中，有一些纯粹是买盘推动。狂热的买单对个股交易影响巨大，尤其是航空股、游轮股以及低价股。[你懂的]","text":"$MFA Financial(MFA)$刚刚看到的一段话 奉献给各位 当股市涨得又快又猛的时候，总会有越来越多的散户争先恐后地入场追涨。当下的美国股市同样如此。越来越多的证据表明，散户买盘已经成为那些曾大幅贬值的股票近期价格猛涨的关键推手。新英格兰投资和退休集团助理投资顾问John Ham认为，在近期价格飞涨的股票中，有一些纯粹是买盘推动。狂热的买单对个股交易影响巨大，尤其是航空股、游轮股以及低价股。[你懂的]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952085725","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":956764024,"gmtCreate":1591796599468,"gmtModify":1704196968181,"author":{"id":"3444730795649502","authorId":"3444730795649502","name":"牛虎2017","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce656fca3b9abee58b18c9e4149e10e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3444730795649502","authorIdStr":"3444730795649502"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看了这么好的文章 ，清了华住股票","listText":"看了这么好的文章 ，清了华住股票","text":"看了这么好的文章 ，清了华住股票","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/956764024","repostId":"2040779340","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2040779340","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1591279075,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2040779340?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-04 21:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"比洲际、万豪贵6倍，华住要吹多大的故事才能撑住这估值？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2040779340","media":"投资界","summary":"（本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，不构成任何投资建议）2010年汉庭酒店登陆美股，两年后集团名从汉庭更改为华住（NASDAQ:HTHT）。改名让很多普通投资者错过这支9年14倍，年化涨幅35%左右的中","content":"<html><body><article><p>（本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，不构成任何投资建议）</p><p>2010年汉庭酒店登陆美股，两年后集团名从汉庭更改为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">华住</a>（NASDAQ:HTHT）。改名让很多普通投资者错过这支9年14倍，年化涨幅35%左右的中国酒店龙头。</p><p>“最美的时光”选择更名改姓不打扰投资者，等到“芳华已逝”却跑出来吸眼球：2019年3月7日，华住旗下桔子水晶酒店发布了一篇标题为《这届妇女不行，太浪了……》的文章，引得外界集体声讨。</p><p>我们觉得不行的可能是华住：酒店是个好行业，但这个时间点介入华住，可能并不是一个好选择。因为周期环境和竞争环境都变了，而且它的估值比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IHG.UK\">洲际酒店集团</a>(NYSE:IHG) 、万豪国际酒店(NASDAQ:MAR)还贵6倍。</p><p><strong>华住估值超高</strong></p><p>不管是与国内的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600258\">首旅酒店</a>(SH:600258)或锦江股份(SH:600754)相比，还是与国外的洲际、万豪相比，华住的估值都高出了天际。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200604215803907v246x8hepqz1zjw\"/><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAR\">万豪酒店</a>市盈率为24倍，2013年-2018年这波4倍涨幅过程中，估值中枢一直在30倍市盈率左右。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IHG\">洲际酒店</a>市盈率为33倍，2011年-2018年这波接近5倍涨幅过程中，估值中枢一直在20倍市盈率左右。</p><p>就算考虑到华住今年净利润的下滑，来自持有雅高股票下跌，造成公允价值减少9.14亿元。按调整后17.13亿元的净利润算，华住的市盈率也高达51倍。</p><p>为什么华住的估值这么高？复盘其创业史，看清关键的两个转型，就能明白其股价为什么上涨。</p><p><strong>02 曾经的上涨逻辑</strong></p><p>从2005年第一家酒店，到如今全国4000多家门店，华住的创业史也是中国十多年来的的酒店发展史。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200604215805194v24614c3wuienle\"/><p>（华住酒店数目与分类，点击可看大图）</p><p>早期（2005年-2012年）的华住就是做经济型酒店，为什么选这个赛道呢？原因是季琦（华住创始人）任职携程的时候，发现人们对经济型酒店旺盛需求的这个商机。</p><p>在经济型酒店的基本盘之上，华住又从2012年开始率先发展中端酒店，并大获成功。</p><p>比如华住中端酒店中的拳头产品“全季酒店”，门店已经扩张到553家（截至2018年底），战略与结构的转换提高了华住整体的价值率。也是在这个时候，华住的股价开始启动。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200604215809500v246gezvi07juq4\"/><p>（全季酒店的增长曲线，点击可看大图）</p><p>但真正引爆华住股价的，还是从2014年推行的轻资产转型，也就是战略重心从直营变为加盟。</p><p>直营的酒店子品牌取得成功，再通过加盟的方式扩张，这其中的杠杆是惊人的。这种输出管理的模式，不需要太多资本开支，比如开了30家直营店就开始全力做加盟的全季酒店。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200604215811645v2463mmionx3esn\"/><p>（全季酒店直营30家成功后，主要靠加盟扩张，点击可看大图）</p><p>华住增长的逻辑很清晰，经济型酒店打基础，中端酒店和加盟店提升价值，在这种战略的指导下，华住相对首旅和锦江而言更加成功，股价持续上涨并不令人意外。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200604215819711v246gamuyhjq2fk\"/><p>（华住K线图，点击可看大图）</p><p>但回到最初的问题，华住估值这么高值不值呢？我们认为中期来看肯定是不值的。</p><p><strong>投资酒店要考虑周期性</strong></p><p>酒店行业周期性非常强，上升期享受利润提升的快感，衰退期忍受业绩的下滑。</p><p>即使是加盟店输出标准化的设计指导和运营管理，也只能一定程度上降低周期的波幅，而不是完全的消解周期。毕竟加盟店收入来自于分成，还是要看酒店的业绩，周期下行业绩就会下行。</p><p>目前宏观经济增速下行基本确定，城镇居民人均可支配收入增速持平，但城镇社会消费品零售总额增速2017年以来降的比较多，原因可能大家能够体会。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200604215820876v246puan94tnnj1\"/><p>（周期下行趋势，点击可看大图）</p><p>从周期的角度来看，这几年酒店增长空间不大。</p><p><strong>04 竞争环境变了</strong></p><p>Airbnb领衔的民宿崛起，短短几年时间，全球在线房源突破500万，数量上与booking比肩，压携程300多万房源一头。值得注意的是，Airbnb全部是增量房源，正逐渐积压华住中端酒店的空间。</p><p>你来判断一下，去北京逛景点，游客是愿意花698元住故宫隔壁的二层复式四合院（Airbnb上的房源），还是愿意花638元住大珊栏就一张双人床的桔子水晶酒店（华住旗下酒店）？</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200604215825009v2461n0ux9x8uto\"/><p>(点击可看大图）</p><p>再网上扩张高端酒店呢？其实也不用想了，这十几年高端酒店的增长处于停滞状态，看洲际酒店和万豪酒店的收入可知：</p><p>2006年-2018年，万豪酒店收入年化增长率为4.7%，如果其2016年不收购喜达屋，增速也就3.6%，与世界经济一起永续增长。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200604215825866v246pozfnc1oi73\"/><p>（万豪酒店的产品组合，点击可看大图）</p><p>2004年-2018年，洲际酒店收入年化增长率为0.6%，如果其2017年没收购White Lodging旗下82家酒店，这20多年就是负增长；</p><p>另外，华住经济型酒店的老底也有被掏空的风险。印度酒店集团OYO自2017年11月进入中国，一年多就覆盖了298个城市，开了7400多家店，拥有34万间客房。</p><p>有人戏称OYO为酒店行业的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>，其渠道下沉收编下线城市酒店的打法非常耗钱，好在其资本实力强大，累计融资16.5亿美元，背后有Airbnb、日本软银、红杉等资本的支持。</p><p>经济型酒店的竞争还不甚明朗，OYO是否能持续，以及华住新陈代谢的速度（每年会关很多效益不佳的店）是我们需要关注的。</p><p><strong>总结</strong></p><p>酒店是门老生意，虽然很赚钱但业绩都在预期之内。所以酒店的估值都不会特别高，就像格力一样，完全靠业绩驱动着股价上涨。</p><p>华住目前面对的周期环境以及竞争环境，可以说不容乐观，需要讲一个很大很大的故事才能覆盖如此高的估值。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n比洲际、万豪贵6倍，华住要吹多大的故事才能撑住这估值？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-04 21:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202006042158267a79fee6&s=b><strong>投资界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>（本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，不构成任何投资建议）2010年汉庭酒店登陆美股，两年后集团名从汉庭更改为华住（NASDAQ:HTHT）。改名让很多普通投资者错过这支9年14倍，年化涨幅35%左右的中国酒店龙头。“最美的时光”选择更名改姓不打扰投资者，等到“芳华已逝”却跑出来吸眼球：2019年3月7日，华住旗下桔子水晶酒店发布了一篇标题为《这届妇女不行，太浪了……》的文章，引得外界集体声讨。我们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202006042158267a79fee6&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3996b843dd6a60eaa5e5d861b252f6a","relate_stocks":{"HTHT":"华住"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202006042158267a79fee6&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2040779340","content_text":"（本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，不构成任何投资建议）2010年汉庭酒店登陆美股，两年后集团名从汉庭更改为华住（NASDAQ:HTHT）。改名让很多普通投资者错过这支9年14倍，年化涨幅35%左右的中国酒店龙头。“最美的时光”选择更名改姓不打扰投资者，等到“芳华已逝”却跑出来吸眼球：2019年3月7日，华住旗下桔子水晶酒店发布了一篇标题为《这届妇女不行，太浪了……》的文章，引得外界集体声讨。我们觉得不行的可能是华住：酒店是个好行业，但这个时间点介入华住，可能并不是一个好选择。因为周期环境和竞争环境都变了，而且它的估值比洲际酒店集团(NYSE:IHG) 、万豪国际酒店(NASDAQ:MAR)还贵6倍。华住估值超高不管是与国内的首旅酒店(SH:600258)或锦江股份(SH:600754)相比，还是与国外的洲际、万豪相比，华住的估值都高出了天际。万豪酒店市盈率为24倍，2013年-2018年这波4倍涨幅过程中，估值中枢一直在30倍市盈率左右。洲际酒店市盈率为33倍，2011年-2018年这波接近5倍涨幅过程中，估值中枢一直在20倍市盈率左右。就算考虑到华住今年净利润的下滑，来自持有雅高股票下跌，造成公允价值减少9.14亿元。按调整后17.13亿元的净利润算，华住的市盈率也高达51倍。为什么华住的估值这么高？复盘其创业史，看清关键的两个转型，就能明白其股价为什么上涨。02 曾经的上涨逻辑从2005年第一家酒店，到如今全国4000多家门店，华住的创业史也是中国十多年来的的酒店发展史。（华住酒店数目与分类，点击可看大图）早期（2005年-2012年）的华住就是做经济型酒店，为什么选这个赛道呢？原因是季琦（华住创始人）任职携程的时候，发现人们对经济型酒店旺盛需求的这个商机。在经济型酒店的基本盘之上，华住又从2012年开始率先发展中端酒店，并大获成功。比如华住中端酒店中的拳头产品“全季酒店”，门店已经扩张到553家（截至2018年底），战略与结构的转换提高了华住整体的价值率。也是在这个时候，华住的股价开始启动。（全季酒店的增长曲线，点击可看大图）但真正引爆华住股价的，还是从2014年推行的轻资产转型，也就是战略重心从直营变为加盟。直营的酒店子品牌取得成功，再通过加盟的方式扩张，这其中的杠杆是惊人的。这种输出管理的模式，不需要太多资本开支，比如开了30家直营店就开始全力做加盟的全季酒店。（全季酒店直营30家成功后，主要靠加盟扩张，点击可看大图）华住增长的逻辑很清晰，经济型酒店打基础，中端酒店和加盟店提升价值，在这种战略的指导下，华住相对首旅和锦江而言更加成功，股价持续上涨并不令人意外。（华住K线图，点击可看大图）但回到最初的问题，华住估值这么高值不值呢？我们认为中期来看肯定是不值的。投资酒店要考虑周期性酒店行业周期性非常强，上升期享受利润提升的快感，衰退期忍受业绩的下滑。即使是加盟店输出标准化的设计指导和运营管理，也只能一定程度上降低周期的波幅，而不是完全的消解周期。毕竟加盟店收入来自于分成，还是要看酒店的业绩，周期下行业绩就会下行。目前宏观经济增速下行基本确定，城镇居民人均可支配收入增速持平，但城镇社会消费品零售总额增速2017年以来降的比较多，原因可能大家能够体会。（周期下行趋势，点击可看大图）从周期的角度来看，这几年酒店增长空间不大。04 竞争环境变了Airbnb领衔的民宿崛起，短短几年时间，全球在线房源突破500万，数量上与booking比肩，压携程300多万房源一头。值得注意的是，Airbnb全部是增量房源，正逐渐积压华住中端酒店的空间。你来判断一下，去北京逛景点，游客是愿意花698元住故宫隔壁的二层复式四合院（Airbnb上的房源），还是愿意花638元住大珊栏就一张双人床的桔子水晶酒店（华住旗下酒店）？(点击可看大图）再网上扩张高端酒店呢？其实也不用想了，这十几年高端酒店的增长处于停滞状态，看洲际酒店和万豪酒店的收入可知：2006年-2018年，万豪酒店收入年化增长率为4.7%，如果其2016年不收购喜达屋，增速也就3.6%，与世界经济一起永续增长。（万豪酒店的产品组合，点击可看大图）2004年-2018年，洲际酒店收入年化增长率为0.6%，如果其2017年没收购White Lodging旗下82家酒店，这20多年就是负增长；另外，华住经济型酒店的老底也有被掏空的风险。印度酒店集团OYO自2017年11月进入中国，一年多就覆盖了298个城市，开了7400多家店，拥有34万间客房。有人戏称OYO为酒店行业的拼多多，其渠道下沉收编下线城市酒店的打法非常耗钱，好在其资本实力强大，累计融资16.5亿美元，背后有Airbnb、日本软银、红杉等资本的支持。经济型酒店的竞争还不甚明朗，OYO是否能持续，以及华住新陈代谢的速度（每年会关很多效益不佳的店）是我们需要关注的。总结酒店是门老生意，虽然很赚钱但业绩都在预期之内。所以酒店的估值都不会特别高，就像格力一样，完全靠业绩驱动着股价上涨。华住目前面对的周期环境以及竞争环境，可以说不容乐观，需要讲一个很大很大的故事才能覆盖如此高的估值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HTHT":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":956434436,"gmtCreate":1591759219325,"gmtModify":1704196784643,"author":{"id":"3444730795649502","authorId":"3444730795649502","name":"牛虎2017","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce656fca3b9abee58b18c9e4149e10e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3444730795649502","authorIdStr":"3444730795649502"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APT\">$Alpha Pro Tech 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22:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"贵州茅台市值=波音+特斯拉，而波音营收是茅台的6倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180562863","media":"新浪财经","summary":"贵州茅台最新市值14553亿元人民币，目前为A股第二大市值公司。","content":"<p>A股股王<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a></span>最新市值14553亿元人民币，目前为A股第二大市值公司。值得注意的是，贵州茅台的体量相当于美国最大的航空制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>的市值加上新能源汽车代表<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>市值的总和。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491d8be73790af2c0213b029ca455ea2\" /></p><p>波音公司是全球最大的航空制造商。波音的产品以及定制的服务包括：民用和军用飞机、卫星、武器、电子和防御系统、发射系统、先进信息和通讯系统，以及基于性能的物流和培训等。</p><p>特斯拉作为新能源汽车代表，主要从事纯电动汽车的设计、制造和销售，也向第三方提供电动汽车动力系统的研究开发和代工生产服务，其产品涵盖跑车以及其他大众型车辆。今年以来，受益于特斯拉，中<span>国新能源</span>汽车概念异军突起，赚钱效应凸显。</p><p>不过，数据显示，2019年中期，波音的营收是茅台的6倍，但依然却录得54.5亿的亏损；同样，特斯拉2019年中期大幅亏损76.3亿元，比自身的营收还多。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/105e17378c03b03084ced8b209f50192\" /></p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2020-03-12/doc-iimxxstf8436981.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A股股王贵州茅台最新市值14553亿元人民币，目前为A股第二大市值公司。值得注意的是，贵州茅台的体量相当于美国最大的航空制造商波音的市值加上新能源汽车代表特斯拉市值的总和。波音公司是全球最大的航空制造商。波音的产品以及定制的服务包括：民用和军用飞机、卫星、武器、电子和防御系统、发射系统、先进信息和通讯系统，以及基于性能的物流和培训等。特斯拉作为新能源汽车代表，主要从事纯电动汽车的设计、制造和销售，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2020-03-12/doc-iimxxstf8436981.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba16b4f88c90908701f4ff26fee613c","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","TSLA":"特斯拉","BA":"波音"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2020-03-12/doc-iimxxstf8436981.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180562863","content_text":"A股股王贵州茅台最新市值14553亿元人民币，目前为A股第二大市值公司。值得注意的是，贵州茅台的体量相当于美国最大的航空制造商波音的市值加上新能源汽车代表特斯拉市值的总和。波音公司是全球最大的航空制造商。波音的产品以及定制的服务包括：民用和军用飞机、卫星、武器、电子和防御系统、发射系统、先进信息和通讯系统，以及基于性能的物流和培训等。特斯拉作为新能源汽车代表，主要从事纯电动汽车的设计、制造和销售，也向第三方提供电动汽车动力系统的研究开发和代工生产服务，其产品涵盖跑车以及其他大众型车辆。今年以来，受益于特斯拉，中国新能源汽车概念异军突起，赚钱效应凸显。不过，数据显示，2019年中期，波音的营收是茅台的6倍，但依然却录得54.5亿的亏损；同样，特斯拉2019年中期大幅亏损76.3亿元，比自身的营收还多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9,"BA":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":929334311,"gmtCreate":1585229074533,"gmtModify":1704357457263,"author":{"id":"3444730795649502","authorId":"3444730795649502","name":"牛虎2017","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce656fca3b9abee58b18c9e4149e10e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3444730795649502","idStr":"3444730795649502"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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