庄启明的个人主页 - 老虎社区

庄启明

庄启明

~经济独立，启发明智~

IP属地：福建

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0勋章

08-11 22:44

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 有技术等等支撑，前期被各方势力围堵，现在突破了

07-29

美国佬就喜欢收割全世界，没有好处，他们不会做。

警惕美联储今夜“突袭加息”！多家华尔街机构拉响警报，交易员历史性“焦虑对冲”

04-27

多行不义必自毙

特朗普被紧急疏散！白宫记者晚宴大厅发生枪击事件

04-01

$耐克(NKE)$ 预期好一点，已经不错了

03-24

这就是美国霸权的现实，世界怎么破局？大家谢谢吧。

又现内幕交易？特朗普“TACO”前15分钟，原油期货交易量激增

03-20

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 美帝国主义还是一样的霸道，中国必须强大，世界才有希望。

03-18

$英特尔(INTC)$ 加油

02-10

$Robinhood(HOOD)$ 看好

01-30

$拼多多(PDD)$ 这么好的公司被打压了，可惜

01-21

$奈飞(NFLX)$ 等等看，让子弹飞一会

01-20

$蔚来(NIO)$ 只缺东风，哪里找

01-16

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ 发烧了

01-16

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ 公公

01-16

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ 来来来

01-16

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ 发发发

01-16

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ 积蓄力量这么久了，该发力了

01-16

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 你已经积蓄太久了，该发力了

01-16

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ 一定行

01-16

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 大家发发发

01-16

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 压抑这么久，该爆发了

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09:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"警惕美联储今夜“突袭加息”！多家华尔街机构拉响警报，交易员历史性“焦虑对冲”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101404339","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"美联储即将公布政策决定，债券交易员们情绪紧张，尽管大多数人预测利率不会改变，但一些专家预计利率将会上调。自5月22日上任以来，沃什彻底颠覆了美联储的沟通范式。他成立多个工作组重新评估美联储的沟通机制、通胀框架和资产负债表管理。Flight认为市场再次低估了美联储政策立场转向鹰派的程度，“本周加息将明确结束前瞻性指引时代”。机构对76位经济学家的调查显示，所有受访者均预计美联储将维持利率不变。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储即将公布政策决定，债券交易员们情绪紧张，尽管大多数人预测利率不会改变，但一些专家预计利率将会上调。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席凯文·沃什将于北京时间周四凌晨2点公布他上任以来的第二次利率决议时，全球资本市场正屏息凝视一个前所未有的悬念。就在一个月前，市场还近乎笃定7月将按兵不动;而此刻，CME FedWatch工具显示加息25个基点的概率已从一周前的13%飙升至30%。花旗直言，这是“自2024年9月以来分歧最大的时刻” 。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a0a098da5accee3405532f61ed076a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>更令人紧张的是，联邦基金利率期货未平仓合约在上周五达到909,714份后，周一进一步飙升至967,136份，刷新历史纪录。“以往到了会前这个时候，市场对政策结果的预期通常已高度一致”，但这次完全不同。BMO Capital Markets数据显示，自2015年以来，交易员在美联储决议前一天对最终利率决定的预测平均误差仅为2.4个基点——而这次，误差可能以“码”来计算。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3167133643\">从“10%”到“30%”：一场被地缘政治逆转的通胀叙事</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月14日，美国劳工部公布6月CPI数据：CPI同比上涨3.5%，较5月的4.2%显著回落，环比下降0.4%，创2020年4月以来最大单月降幅;核心CPI环比持平，为2021年1月以来最小增幅。这份数据一度让市场相信，美联储可以继续按兵不动，通胀降温的信号一度将市场对7月加息的押注压低至约10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70621edec4c2bd8da0a3a647450c6791\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，降温的只是数据，而非趋势。美伊脆弱的停火协议破裂后，中东局势再度升级。7月24日，布伦特原油盘中突破每桶100美元，自6月美联储会议以来累计涨幅已达25%。油价上涨迅速传导至汽油和柴油价格，令消费者和美国工业的成本双双承压。与此同时，特朗普政府于7月24日宣布对60个国家征收10%至12.5%的新关税，作为最高法院此前否决“解放日”关税后的替代方案。此外，AI投资持续强劲，推动相关需求增长。三重因素叠加，扭转了市场对通胀降温的判断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">PGIM首席美国经济学家Robert Sockin将本周会议形容为“几乎是五五开”。Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家Neil Dutta更直言，7月加息可以让美联储获得“未来的灵活性”，避免在9月被逼入墙角。“你必须在共识中寻找机会，我觉得这次可能就是这样的时刻，”Dutta在7月22日的报告中写道。</p><h2 id=\"id_133539095\">沃什的“沉默革命”：不提前任之路，不提供任何指引</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场会议的最大变量，来自沃什本人。自5月22日上任以来，沃什彻底颠覆了美联储的沟通范式。他明确承诺放弃“前瞻性指引”——即不再提前向市场暗示利率路径。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在7月15日的国会听证会上，他拒绝就未来几个月的利率走势提供任何具体见解。他成立多个工作组重新评估美联储的沟通机制、通胀框架和资产负债表管理。正如Hartford Funds固定收益投资专家Joe Boyle所言：“沃什仍然是个难以捉摸的人物，他一直坚称自己对前瞻性指引不感兴趣。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一做法的后果正在显现——市场失去了过去十几年习以为常的“政策指南针”。R.J. O&#39;Brien衍生品经纪人Alex Manzara指出：“过去，美联储通常不会令市场意外。临近会议时，联邦基金期货隐含利率与最终政策利率通常不会相差超过两三个基点。现在合约中突然出现了不确定性，而这带来了交易需求。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fdc49cef2c40505b17941c946a0a7d4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bianco Research总裁Jim Bianco表示 ：“没有前瞻指引，意味着我们将频繁看到20%、30%、40%的概率分布”。高盛指出，投资者认为7月会议结果存在“异常大的不确定性”，原因正是美联储内部意见分歧、沃什本人立场尚不明确。</p><h2 id=\"id_323543074\">政治暗流：沃什与特朗普的微妙平衡</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场政策博弈的背后，还隐藏着复杂的政治计算。特朗普已公开向沃什施压要求降息，称“利率应该降低”，“我们应该拥有全球最低的利率”。债券市场资深人士Harley Bassman在报告中直言，美联储应该“撕掉创可贴”，将利率提高50个基点。“加息50个基点表明市场出现了一位新警长，他并不受总统的约束”——此举既能获得抗通胀信誉，又能抵御特朗普总统降低借贷成本的压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SMBC日兴证券美国首席经济学家Joseph Lavorgna指出，若等到9月甚至10月才行动——第一次加息正好在中期选举之前——“那会是什么样子?他不如现在就行动”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什面临的考验在于：他在国会誓言“零容忍”通胀，却迟迟不愿透露具体路径。正如贝莱德此前所指出的，沃什“认识到信誉仍然是央行最强大的政策工具”——但“这些话最终需要用行动来支撑”。</p><h2 id=\"id_2680896766\">鹰派集结：至少两张反对票在途，城堡证券押注“突袭加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储内部的分歧同样罕见。达拉斯联储主席洛根近期明确呼吁“略微更高的利率”，认为通胀仍明显高于2%目标。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也警告通胀压力过高。两人均拥有2026年FOMC投票权，曾在4月投下反对票，本周极可能再次反对。<strong>高盛预计至少一位委员将投赞成加息的异议票;丹斯克银行预计2至4名委员支持加息;而花旗则押注按兵不动。不过，花旗预计，若反对票超过两张，将被市场解读为更强烈的鹰派信号。机构预测本周至少会有两张反对票。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>更激进的信号来自华尔街。城堡证券宏观策略主管Frank Flight出人意料地改变基本预期，转而支持本周加息。</strong>他在报告中写道，加息25个基点将强化沃什恢复价格稳定的承诺，同时表明政策制定者不再依赖提前向市场“明示”每一次政策行动。Flight认为市场再次低估了美联储政策立场转向鹰派的程度，“本周加息将明确结束前瞻性指引时代”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall表示，美联储没有理由不加息。</strong>PGIM全球债券主管兼首席投资策略师Robert Tipp则表示，市场可能低估了周三加息的可能性。Tipp说：“他确实为加息做好了准备。现在推迟决定会增加九月份加息50个基点的可能性。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，分析指出，沃什本人可能并不支持现在加息。他在7月15日的国会证词中将能源价格冲击描述为“特定价格发生的特定冲击，我们无法控制”。加息将“预判”他刚成立的工作组的结论。此外，6月CPI已出现六年来首次下降，就业增长放缓，为按兵不动提供了理由。机构对76位经济学家的调查显示，所有受访者均预计美联储将维持利率不变。</p><h2 id=\"id_3797664327\">市场屏息：无论结果如何，波动都将剧烈</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle坦言，他20年来从未像现在这样对美联储即将做出的利率决定感到如此不确定，上次感到不确定还要追溯到本·伯南克担任美联储主席的时候；<strong>他指出，沃什缺乏过往历史以及美联储官员近期的分歧进一步加剧了前景的不确定性，但他不排除沃什最终投下决定性一票的可能性。</strong>美国银行美国利率策略主管Mark Cabana的总结更为精辟：“投资者仍在试图了解美联储在沃什担任主席期间将如何运作。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>不确定性正在驱动前所未有的对冲需求。8月联邦基金期货合约的未平仓合约量在7月27日达到967,136份，刷新历史纪录。</strong>花旗交易团队已买入7月FOMC合约——该头寸将在央行维持利率不变时获利，其短期利率交易全球负责人Akshay Singal表示，“沃什一直明确表示希望市场关注数据，而当前数据尚不足以支持加息”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365fa0bfcd36b7feabaf2feca5d4e12e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">宏观策略师Michael Ball指出：“虽然市场正与一位可能在不预告意图的情况下采取行动的美联储主席踏入未知领域，但这样的举措最终可能被投资者接受为适当政策。那将在短期内支撑风险资产”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n警惕美联储今夜“突袭加息”！多家华尔街机构拉响警报，交易员历史性“焦虑对冲”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-29 09:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储即将公布政策决定，债券交易员们情绪紧张，尽管大多数人预测利率不会改变，但一些专家预计利率将会上调。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席凯文·沃什将于北京时间周四凌晨2点公布他上任以来的第二次利率决议时，全球资本市场正屏息凝视一个前所未有的悬念。就在一个月前，市场还近乎笃定7月将按兵不动;而此刻，CME FedWatch工具显示加息25个基点的概率已从一周前的13%飙升至30%。花旗直言，这是“自2024年9月以来分歧最大的时刻” 。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a0a098da5accee3405532f61ed076a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>更令人紧张的是，联邦基金利率期货未平仓合约在上周五达到909,714份后，周一进一步飙升至967,136份，刷新历史纪录。“以往到了会前这个时候，市场对政策结果的预期通常已高度一致”，但这次完全不同。BMO Capital Markets数据显示，自2015年以来，交易员在美联储决议前一天对最终利率决定的预测平均误差仅为2.4个基点——而这次，误差可能以“码”来计算。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3167133643\">从“10%”到“30%”：一场被地缘政治逆转的通胀叙事</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月14日，美国劳工部公布6月CPI数据：CPI同比上涨3.5%，较5月的4.2%显著回落，环比下降0.4%，创2020年4月以来最大单月降幅;核心CPI环比持平，为2021年1月以来最小增幅。这份数据一度让市场相信，美联储可以继续按兵不动，通胀降温的信号一度将市场对7月加息的押注压低至约10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70621edec4c2bd8da0a3a647450c6791\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，降温的只是数据，而非趋势。美伊脆弱的停火协议破裂后，中东局势再度升级。7月24日，布伦特原油盘中突破每桶100美元，自6月美联储会议以来累计涨幅已达25%。油价上涨迅速传导至汽油和柴油价格，令消费者和美国工业的成本双双承压。与此同时，特朗普政府于7月24日宣布对60个国家征收10%至12.5%的新关税，作为最高法院此前否决“解放日”关税后的替代方案。此外，AI投资持续强劲，推动相关需求增长。三重因素叠加，扭转了市场对通胀降温的判断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">PGIM首席美国经济学家Robert Sockin将本周会议形容为“几乎是五五开”。Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家Neil Dutta更直言，7月加息可以让美联储获得“未来的灵活性”，避免在9月被逼入墙角。“你必须在共识中寻找机会，我觉得这次可能就是这样的时刻，”Dutta在7月22日的报告中写道。</p><h2 id=\"id_133539095\">沃什的“沉默革命”：不提前任之路，不提供任何指引</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场会议的最大变量，来自沃什本人。自5月22日上任以来，沃什彻底颠覆了美联储的沟通范式。他明确承诺放弃“前瞻性指引”——即不再提前向市场暗示利率路径。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在7月15日的国会听证会上，他拒绝就未来几个月的利率走势提供任何具体见解。他成立多个工作组重新评估美联储的沟通机制、通胀框架和资产负债表管理。正如Hartford Funds固定收益投资专家Joe Boyle所言：“沃什仍然是个难以捉摸的人物，他一直坚称自己对前瞻性指引不感兴趣。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一做法的后果正在显现——市场失去了过去十几年习以为常的“政策指南针”。R.J. O&#39;Brien衍生品经纪人Alex Manzara指出：“过去，美联储通常不会令市场意外。临近会议时，联邦基金期货隐含利率与最终政策利率通常不会相差超过两三个基点。现在合约中突然出现了不确定性，而这带来了交易需求。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fdc49cef2c40505b17941c946a0a7d4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bianco Research总裁Jim Bianco表示 ：“没有前瞻指引，意味着我们将频繁看到20%、30%、40%的概率分布”。高盛指出，投资者认为7月会议结果存在“异常大的不确定性”，原因正是美联储内部意见分歧、沃什本人立场尚不明确。</p><h2 id=\"id_323543074\">政治暗流：沃什与特朗普的微妙平衡</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场政策博弈的背后，还隐藏着复杂的政治计算。特朗普已公开向沃什施压要求降息，称“利率应该降低”，“我们应该拥有全球最低的利率”。债券市场资深人士Harley Bassman在报告中直言，美联储应该“撕掉创可贴”，将利率提高50个基点。“加息50个基点表明市场出现了一位新警长，他并不受总统的约束”——此举既能获得抗通胀信誉，又能抵御特朗普总统降低借贷成本的压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SMBC日兴证券美国首席经济学家Joseph Lavorgna指出，若等到9月甚至10月才行动——第一次加息正好在中期选举之前——“那会是什么样子?他不如现在就行动”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什面临的考验在于：他在国会誓言“零容忍”通胀，却迟迟不愿透露具体路径。正如贝莱德此前所指出的，沃什“认识到信誉仍然是央行最强大的政策工具”——但“这些话最终需要用行动来支撑”。</p><h2 id=\"id_2680896766\">鹰派集结：至少两张反对票在途，城堡证券押注“突袭加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储内部的分歧同样罕见。达拉斯联储主席洛根近期明确呼吁“略微更高的利率”，认为通胀仍明显高于2%目标。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也警告通胀压力过高。两人均拥有2026年FOMC投票权，曾在4月投下反对票，本周极可能再次反对。<strong>高盛预计至少一位委员将投赞成加息的异议票;丹斯克银行预计2至4名委员支持加息;而花旗则押注按兵不动。不过，花旗预计，若反对票超过两张，将被市场解读为更强烈的鹰派信号。机构预测本周至少会有两张反对票。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>更激进的信号来自华尔街。城堡证券宏观策略主管Frank Flight出人意料地改变基本预期，转而支持本周加息。</strong>他在报告中写道，加息25个基点将强化沃什恢复价格稳定的承诺，同时表明政策制定者不再依赖提前向市场“明示”每一次政策行动。Flight认为市场再次低估了美联储政策立场转向鹰派的程度，“本周加息将明确结束前瞻性指引时代”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall表示，美联储没有理由不加息。</strong>PGIM全球债券主管兼首席投资策略师Robert Tipp则表示，市场可能低估了周三加息的可能性。Tipp说：“他确实为加息做好了准备。现在推迟决定会增加九月份加息50个基点的可能性。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，分析指出，沃什本人可能并不支持现在加息。他在7月15日的国会证词中将能源价格冲击描述为“特定价格发生的特定冲击，我们无法控制”。加息将“预判”他刚成立的工作组的结论。此外，6月CPI已出现六年来首次下降，就业增长放缓，为按兵不动提供了理由。机构对76位经济学家的调查显示，所有受访者均预计美联储将维持利率不变。</p><h2 id=\"id_3797664327\">市场屏息：无论结果如何，波动都将剧烈</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle坦言，他20年来从未像现在这样对美联储即将做出的利率决定感到如此不确定，上次感到不确定还要追溯到本·伯南克担任美联储主席的时候；<strong>他指出，沃什缺乏过往历史以及美联储官员近期的分歧进一步加剧了前景的不确定性，但他不排除沃什最终投下决定性一票的可能性。</strong>美国银行美国利率策略主管Mark Cabana的总结更为精辟：“投资者仍在试图了解美联储在沃什担任主席期间将如何运作。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>不确定性正在驱动前所未有的对冲需求。8月联邦基金期货合约的未平仓合约量在7月27日达到967,136份，刷新历史纪录。</strong>花旗交易团队已买入7月FOMC合约——该头寸将在央行维持利率不变时获利，其短期利率交易全球负责人Akshay Singal表示，“沃什一直明确表示希望市场关注数据，而当前数据尚不足以支持加息”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365fa0bfcd36b7feabaf2feca5d4e12e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">宏观策略师Michael Ball指出：“虽然市场正与一位可能在不预告意图的情况下采取行动的美联储主席踏入未知领域，但这样的举措最终可能被投资者接受为适当政策。那将在短期内支撑风险资产”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN","07266":"南方两倍做多纳指","03455":"景顺QQQ","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","09086":"华夏纳指-U","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","09834":"安硕纳指一百—U","07522":"FI二华夏纳一百","03086":"华夏纳指","NJAN":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - 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O'Brien衍生品经纪人Alex Manzara指出：“过去，美联储通常不会令市场意外。临近会议时，联邦基金期货隐含利率与最终政策利率通常不会相差超过两三个基点。现在合约中突然出现了不确定性，而这带来了交易需求。”Bianco Research总裁Jim Bianco表示 ：“没有前瞻指引，意味着我们将频繁看到20%、30%、40%的概率分布”。高盛指出，投资者认为7月会议结果存在“异常大的不确定性”，原因正是美联储内部意见分歧、沃什本人立场尚不明确。政治暗流：沃什与特朗普的微妙平衡这场政策博弈的背后，还隐藏着复杂的政治计算。特朗普已公开向沃什施压要求降息，称“利率应该降低”，“我们应该拥有全球最低的利率”。债券市场资深人士Harley Bassman在报告中直言，美联储应该“撕掉创可贴”，将利率提高50个基点。“加息50个基点表明市场出现了一位新警长，他并不受总统的约束”——此举既能获得抗通胀信誉，又能抵御特朗普总统降低借贷成本的压力。SMBC日兴证券美国首席经济学家Joseph Lavorgna指出，若等到9月甚至10月才行动——第一次加息正好在中期选举之前——“那会是什么样子?他不如现在就行动”。沃什面临的考验在于：他在国会誓言“零容忍”通胀，却迟迟不愿透露具体路径。正如贝莱德此前所指出的，沃什“认识到信誉仍然是央行最强大的政策工具”——但“这些话最终需要用行动来支撑”。鹰派集结：至少两张反对票在途，城堡证券押注“突袭加息”美联储内部的分歧同样罕见。达拉斯联储主席洛根近期明确呼吁“略微更高的利率”，认为通胀仍明显高于2%目标。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也警告通胀压力过高。两人均拥有2026年FOMC投票权，曾在4月投下反对票，本周极可能再次反对。高盛预计至少一位委员将投赞成加息的异议票;丹斯克银行预计2至4名委员支持加息;而花旗则押注按兵不动。不过，花旗预计，若反对票超过两张，将被市场解读为更强烈的鹰派信号。机构预测本周至少会有两张反对票。更激进的信号来自华尔街。城堡证券宏观策略主管Frank Flight出人意料地改变基本预期，转而支持本周加息。他在报告中写道，加息25个基点将强化沃什恢复价格稳定的承诺，同时表明政策制定者不再依赖提前向市场“明示”每一次政策行动。Flight认为市场再次低估了美联储政策立场转向鹰派的程度，“本周加息将明确结束前瞻性指引时代”。Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall表示，美联储没有理由不加息。PGIM全球债券主管兼首席投资策略师Robert Tipp则表示，市场可能低估了周三加息的可能性。Tipp说：“他确实为加息做好了准备。现在推迟决定会增加九月份加息50个基点的可能性。”然而，分析指出，沃什本人可能并不支持现在加息。他在7月15日的国会证词中将能源价格冲击描述为“特定价格发生的特定冲击，我们无法控制”。加息将“预判”他刚成立的工作组的结论。此外，6月CPI已出现六年来首次下降，就业增长放缓，为按兵不动提供了理由。机构对76位经济学家的调查显示，所有受访者均预计美联储将维持利率不变。市场屏息：无论结果如何，波动都将剧烈瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle坦言，他20年来从未像现在这样对美联储即将做出的利率决定感到如此不确定，上次感到不确定还要追溯到本·伯南克担任美联储主席的时候；他指出，沃什缺乏过往历史以及美联储官员近期的分歧进一步加剧了前景的不确定性，但他不排除沃什最终投下决定性一票的可能性。美国银行美国利率策略主管Mark Cabana的总结更为精辟：“投资者仍在试图了解美联储在沃什担任主席期间将如何运作。”不确定性正在驱动前所未有的对冲需求。8月联邦基金期货合约的未平仓合约量在7月27日达到967,136份，刷新历史纪录。花旗交易团队已买入7月FOMC合约——该头寸将在央行维持利率不变时获利，其短期利率交易全球负责人Akshay Singal表示，“沃什一直明确表示希望市场关注数据，而当前数据尚不足以支持加息”。宏观策略师Michael Ball指出：“虽然市场正与一位可能在不预告意图的情况下采取行动的美联储主席踏入未知领域，但这样的举措最终可能被投资者接受为适当政策。那将在短期内支撑风险资产”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQQQ":0.6,".DJI":2,"DDM":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"07261":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"03034":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"09086":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"NDX":2,"NAPR":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"03086":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"SH":0.6,"02834":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"07266":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"07568":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"09834":0.6,".SPX":2,"SDOW":0.6,"07522":0.6,"03455":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,".IXIC":2,"SPYH":0.6,"SPXL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557935684458056,"gmtCreate":1777246489240,"gmtModify":1777253924446,"author":{"id":"3447258680782140","authorId":"3447258680782140","name":"庄启明","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cdc53929b69f8b806e35f1372121ca4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447258680782140","authorIdStr":"3447258680782140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"多行不义必自毙","listText":"多行不义必自毙","text":"多行不义必自毙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557935684458056","repostId":"1109341533","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1109341533","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777164613,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1109341533?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-26 08:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普被紧急疏散！白宫记者晚宴大厅发生枪击事件","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109341533","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"当地时间4月25日，有消息称美国华盛顿希尔顿酒店内传出“枪声”后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普紧急撤离了白宫记者晚宴现场。（央视新闻）","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>白宫记者晚宴惊现枪声，当地时间4月25日，特朗普入场不足30分钟，华盛顿希尔顿酒店大堂突传五声枪响，2000余名宾客慌乱钻桌自保，特勤局紧急冲台将总统撤离。特朗普随后在社交媒体上说，白宫记者协会晚宴“安全事件”的一名涉事枪手已被拘捕。</p></blockquote><p>美国白宫记者晚宴现场突发枪击事件，特勤局紧急将总统特朗普撤离舞台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻，当地时间4月25日，美国白宫记者晚宴大厅发生枪击事件，有消息称美国华盛顿希尔顿酒店内传出“枪声”后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普紧急撤离了白宫记者晚宴现场。据新华社援引美国媒体报道，白宫记者协会晚宴发生“安全事件”后，美国总统特朗普“安全无恙”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻，<strong>枪手已身亡</strong>。据消息人士透露，枪击事件发生后，枪手在宴会厅外的金属探测器区域被击毙。<strong>另据新华社，美国总统特朗普25日在社交媒体上说，白宫记者协会晚宴“安全事件”的一名涉事枪手已被拘捕。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据央视援引美国有线电视新闻网信息报道，已确认4月25日白宫记协晚宴“安全事件”嫌疑人为一名来自加利福尼亚州的30岁男子。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">白宫记者晚宴是美国政治与媒体界的年度重要活动，这是特朗普在任期内首次出席这一政治媒体年度盛会。白宫记者晚宴主持表示，活动将很快恢复，更多细节将很快分享。特朗普预计将如期回到活动现场并发表演讲。</p><h2 id=\"2ef6bb2b\">事发经过：晚宴开场数分钟内突现混乱</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻，就在美国总统特朗普与第一夫人梅拉尼娅入场尚不足30分钟之际，两人便被紧急撤离。画面显示，华盛顿希尔顿酒店的大堂内至少传出了五声枪响。与此同时，包括记者和特朗普政府官员在内的2000多名宾客惊慌失措，纷纷钻到桌下寻找掩护。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另据现场报道，白宫记者晚宴开始仅几分钟，当特朗普正与当晚的表演嘉宾——著名心灵感应师奥兹·珀尔曼交谈时，特勤局人员突然冲上舞台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数百名在场人士纷纷躲到桌子底下，特朗普和主席台上的其他人则被迅速带离舞台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前尚不清楚是什么原因促使特勤局介入。当时在宴会厅内的C-SPAN主持人约翰·麦卡德尔致电C-SPAN称，在沙拉上桌时，他听到“砰、砰、砰”的三声巨响，随后特勤局人员冲上了舞台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">主席台上的出席者包括白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt、副总统JD万斯，以及白宫记者协会的几位主要负责人：CBS新闻记者Weijia Jiang、福克斯新闻记者Jacqui Heinrich，以及彭博记者Justin Sink。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d10db7efce43826eacd24eef4439c35\" tg-width=\"2240\" tg-height=\"1493\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">（2026年4月25日，华盛顿特区华盛顿希尔顿酒店举行白宫记者晚宴期间，听到巨大响声后，特工们拔出了枪。）</p><h2 id=\"fbi\">现场反应：特勤局拔枪，FBI局长现身</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现场记者在社交媒体上透露，特勤局特工在将在场人员向后推离时大喊&#34;有人开枪了&#34;。现场人员还目击到FBI局长Kash Patel&#34;快步走过新闻池旁边&#34;。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af7b7cd6ef335cbf4aba335c5bccab0\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"826\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普被带出宴会大厅后，现场有男子高呼&#34;美国！&#34;（USA!），宴会厅内仍有大批与会者滞留，部分人开始用手机拍摄现场情况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">白宫记者协会成立于1914年，是一个独立组织，由报道白宫和美国总统的记者组成。该协会从1921年开始举行年度晚宴，是媒体与政府官员加强沟通的社交活动，总统出席并发表讲话一度成为惯例。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普被紧急疏散！白宫记者晚宴大厅发生枪击事件</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普被紧急疏散！白宫记者晚宴大厅发生枪击事件\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-26 08:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>白宫记者晚宴惊现枪声，当地时间4月25日，特朗普入场不足30分钟，华盛顿希尔顿酒店大堂突传五声枪响，2000余名宾客慌乱钻桌自保，特勤局紧急冲台将总统撤离。特朗普随后在社交媒体上说，白宫记者协会晚宴“安全事件”的一名涉事枪手已被拘捕。</p></blockquote><p>美国白宫记者晚宴现场突发枪击事件，特勤局紧急将总统特朗普撤离舞台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻，当地时间4月25日，美国白宫记者晚宴大厅发生枪击事件，有消息称美国华盛顿希尔顿酒店内传出“枪声”后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普紧急撤离了白宫记者晚宴现场。据新华社援引美国媒体报道，白宫记者协会晚宴发生“安全事件”后，美国总统特朗普“安全无恙”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻，<strong>枪手已身亡</strong>。据消息人士透露，枪击事件发生后，枪手在宴会厅外的金属探测器区域被击毙。<strong>另据新华社，美国总统特朗普25日在社交媒体上说，白宫记者协会晚宴“安全事件”的一名涉事枪手已被拘捕。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据央视援引美国有线电视新闻网信息报道，已确认4月25日白宫记协晚宴“安全事件”嫌疑人为一名来自加利福尼亚州的30岁男子。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">白宫记者晚宴是美国政治与媒体界的年度重要活动，这是特朗普在任期内首次出席这一政治媒体年度盛会。白宫记者晚宴主持表示，活动将很快恢复，更多细节将很快分享。特朗普预计将如期回到活动现场并发表演讲。</p><h2 id=\"2ef6bb2b\">事发经过：晚宴开场数分钟内突现混乱</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻，就在美国总统特朗普与第一夫人梅拉尼娅入场尚不足30分钟之际，两人便被紧急撤离。画面显示，华盛顿希尔顿酒店的大堂内至少传出了五声枪响。与此同时，包括记者和特朗普政府官员在内的2000多名宾客惊慌失措，纷纷钻到桌下寻找掩护。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另据现场报道，白宫记者晚宴开始仅几分钟，当特朗普正与当晚的表演嘉宾——著名心灵感应师奥兹·珀尔曼交谈时，特勤局人员突然冲上舞台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数百名在场人士纷纷躲到桌子底下，特朗普和主席台上的其他人则被迅速带离舞台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前尚不清楚是什么原因促使特勤局介入。当时在宴会厅内的C-SPAN主持人约翰·麦卡德尔致电C-SPAN称，在沙拉上桌时，他听到“砰、砰、砰”的三声巨响，随后特勤局人员冲上了舞台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">主席台上的出席者包括白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt、副总统JD万斯，以及白宫记者协会的几位主要负责人：CBS新闻记者Weijia Jiang、福克斯新闻记者Jacqui Heinrich，以及彭博记者Justin Sink。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d10db7efce43826eacd24eef4439c35\" tg-width=\"2240\" tg-height=\"1493\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">（2026年4月25日，华盛顿特区华盛顿希尔顿酒店举行白宫记者晚宴期间，听到巨大响声后，特工们拔出了枪。）</p><h2 id=\"fbi\">现场反应：特勤局拔枪，FBI局长现身</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现场记者在社交媒体上透露，特勤局特工在将在场人员向后推离时大喊&#34;有人开枪了&#34;。现场人员还目击到FBI局长Kash Patel&#34;快步走过新闻池旁边&#34;。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af7b7cd6ef335cbf4aba335c5bccab0\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"826\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普被带出宴会大厅后，现场有男子高呼&#34;美国！&#34;（USA!），宴会厅内仍有大批与会者滞留，部分人开始用手机拍摄现场情况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">白宫记者协会成立于1914年，是一个独立组织，由报道白宫和美国总统的记者组成。该协会从1921年开始举行年度晚宴，是媒体与政府官员加强沟通的社交活动，总统出席并发表讲话一度成为惯例。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/816a0c3e72eee473313fa6139e832464","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109341533","content_text":"白宫记者晚宴惊现枪声，当地时间4月25日，特朗普入场不足30分钟，华盛顿希尔顿酒店大堂突传五声枪响，2000余名宾客慌乱钻桌自保，特勤局紧急冲台将总统撤离。特朗普随后在社交媒体上说，白宫记者协会晚宴“安全事件”的一名涉事枪手已被拘捕。美国白宫记者晚宴现场突发枪击事件，特勤局紧急将总统特朗普撤离舞台。据央视新闻，当地时间4月25日，美国白宫记者晚宴大厅发生枪击事件，有消息称美国华盛顿希尔顿酒店内传出“枪声”后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普紧急撤离了白宫记者晚宴现场。据新华社援引美国媒体报道，白宫记者协会晚宴发生“安全事件”后，美国总统特朗普“安全无恙”。据央视新闻，枪手已身亡。据消息人士透露，枪击事件发生后，枪手在宴会厅外的金属探测器区域被击毙。另据新华社，美国总统特朗普25日在社交媒体上说，白宫记者协会晚宴“安全事件”的一名涉事枪手已被拘捕。据央视援引美国有线电视新闻网信息报道，已确认4月25日白宫记协晚宴“安全事件”嫌疑人为一名来自加利福尼亚州的30岁男子。白宫记者晚宴是美国政治与媒体界的年度重要活动，这是特朗普在任期内首次出席这一政治媒体年度盛会。白宫记者晚宴主持表示，活动将很快恢复，更多细节将很快分享。特朗普预计将如期回到活动现场并发表演讲。事发经过：晚宴开场数分钟内突现混乱据央视新闻，就在美国总统特朗普与第一夫人梅拉尼娅入场尚不足30分钟之际，两人便被紧急撤离。画面显示，华盛顿希尔顿酒店的大堂内至少传出了五声枪响。与此同时，包括记者和特朗普政府官员在内的2000多名宾客惊慌失措，纷纷钻到桌下寻找掩护。另据现场报道，白宫记者晚宴开始仅几分钟，当特朗普正与当晚的表演嘉宾——著名心灵感应师奥兹·珀尔曼交谈时，特勤局人员突然冲上舞台。数百名在场人士纷纷躲到桌子底下，特朗普和主席台上的其他人则被迅速带离舞台。目前尚不清楚是什么原因促使特勤局介入。当时在宴会厅内的C-SPAN主持人约翰·麦卡德尔致电C-SPAN称，在沙拉上桌时，他听到“砰、砰、砰”的三声巨响，随后特勤局人员冲上了舞台。主席台上的出席者包括白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt、副总统JD万斯，以及白宫记者协会的几位主要负责人：CBS新闻记者Weijia Jiang、福克斯新闻记者Jacqui Heinrich，以及彭博记者Justin Sink。（2026年4月25日，华盛顿特区华盛顿希尔顿酒店举行白宫记者晚宴期间，听到巨大响声后，特工们拔出了枪。）现场反应：特勤局拔枪，FBI局长现身现场记者在社交媒体上透露，特勤局特工在将在场人员向后推离时大喊\"有人开枪了\"。现场人员还目击到FBI局长Kash Patel\"快步走过新闻池旁边\"。特朗普被带出宴会大厅后，现场有男子高呼\"美国！\"（USA!），宴会厅内仍有大批与会者滞留，部分人开始用手机拍摄现场情况。白宫记者协会成立于1914年，是一个独立组织，由报道白宫和美国总统的记者组成。该协会从1921年开始举行年度晚宴，是媒体与政府官员加强沟通的社交活动，总统出席并发表讲话一度成为惯例。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":549005966086432,"gmtCreate":1775056569012,"gmtModify":1775056571017,"author":{"id":"3447258680782140","authorId":"3447258680782140","name":"庄启明","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cdc53929b69f8b806e35f1372121ca4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447258680782140","authorIdStr":"3447258680782140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">$耐克(NKE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 预期好一点，已经不错了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">$耐克(NKE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 预期好一点，已经不错了","text":"$耐克(NKE)$ 预期好一点，已经不错了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549005966086432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546157718479072,"gmtCreate":1774348639679,"gmtModify":1774348642340,"author":{"id":"3447258680782140","authorId":"3447258680782140","name":"庄启明","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cdc53929b69f8b806e35f1372121ca4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447258680782140","authorIdStr":"3447258680782140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这就是美国霸权的现实，世界怎么破局？大家谢谢吧。","listText":"这就是美国霸权的现实，世界怎么破局？大家谢谢吧。","text":"这就是美国霸权的现实，世界怎么破局？大家谢谢吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546157718479072","repostId":"2621036632","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2621036632","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1774313788,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2621036632?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-24 08:56","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"又现内幕交易？特朗普“TACO”前15分钟，原油期货交易量激增","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621036632","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特朗普发帖宣称美伊谈判\"富有成效\"的15分钟前，原油市场突现5.8亿美元大额抛售，随后油价应声大跌、美股期货跳涨。异常的时机令多家对冲基金直呼\"有人刚赚了一大笔钱\"。白宫否认内幕交易，伊朗方面随后却称消息纯属\"假新闻\"，一场真假难辨的信息战背后，市场信息不对称的隐忧持续发酵。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特朗普发帖宣称美伊谈判&#34;富有成效&#34;的15分钟前，原油市场突现5.8亿美元大额抛售，随后油价应声大跌、美股期货跳涨。异常的时机令多家对冲基金直呼&#34;有人刚赚了一大笔钱&#34;。白宫否认内幕交易，伊朗方面随后却称消息纯属&#34;假新闻&#34;，一场真假难辨的信息战背后，市场信息不对称的隐忧持续发酵。</p></blockquote><p>在特朗普发布伊朗谈判帖文前约15分钟，原油市场出现一笔名义价值高达5.8亿美元的大额交易，引发市场对内幕交易的强烈质疑。</p><p>据英国《金融时报》报道，<strong>周一纽约时间上午6时49分至6时50分，约6200份布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货合约在短短一分钟内易手，名义价值约5.8亿美元。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d5a83e49b5e384690213c1bc6b76493\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1321\" tg-height=\"740\"/></p><p>同一时间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>迷你期货交易量出现突然飙升，打破了此前盘前交易的平淡局面。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe7ac13f192f465dc79746a92c84495\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"753\"/></p><p>仅仅15分钟后，特朗普在其社交媒体平台Truth Social发文称，美伊双方近日已进行&#34;富有成效的对话&#34;，随即引发全球能源市场大幅抛售，标普500股指期货和欧洲股市同步跳涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885da34bd595c9ccbdbdb53e78f27bab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"750\"/></p><p>这一异常交易时机令多家对冲基金感到不安。多位业内人士表示，这已是近几个月来美国政府官方公告发布前出现大额异常交易的又一案例，市场对信息泄露的担忧情绪持续升温。</p><h2 id=\"id_2660759289\">交易时机高度可疑，市场人士直指异常</h2><p>根据《金融时报》基于彭博数据的测算，上述约6200份布伦特和WTI期货合约的交易集中发生在6时50分前27秒，随后标普500股指期货价格也在数秒内出现跳升，成交量同步显著放大。</p><p>特朗普于7时04分发布帖文，宣称美伊之间已有&#34;富有成效的对话&#34;，消息触发全球能源市场急剧下跌，投资者纷纷削减对持续冲突的押注。</p><p>多位市场人士对这一时机表示高度警惕。一位在美国某券商任职的市场策略师表示：<strong>“很难证明因果关系……但你不得不想，究竟是谁会在特朗普发帖前15分钟如此积极地卖出期货合约？”</strong></p><p>一位拥有25年市场经验的对冲基金组合经理措辞更为直接：“从我观察市场的直觉来看，这实属异常。周一早上没有重要数据，也没有值得抢跑的美联储官员讲话，对于一个没有事件风险的交易日而言，这是一笔异常大的交易……有人刚刚赚了一大笔钱。”</p><p>能源咨询机构Energy Aspects衍生品主管Tim Skirrow则持相对审慎的态度。他表示，该时段布伦特和WTI的成交量“高于通常预期，但也并非过度异常”，并补充称近几周布伦特期货和期权市场已出现基金的“大规模资金流入”，“鉴于价格反应，几乎所有人都是多头，这几乎是引发如此剧烈波动的必要前提。”</p><h2 id=\"id_296539759\">白宫否认不当行为，伊朗随后否认谈判</h2><p>面对外界质疑，白宫发言人Kush Desai予以否认。<strong>他表示：“白宫不容忍任何政府官员利用内幕信息非法牟利，任何在没有证据的情况下暗示官员从事此类活动的说法，都是毫无根据且不负责任的报道。”</strong></p><p>事件并未就此平息。周一晚些时候，据新华社，卡利巴夫23日周一在社交媒体发文，否认已经与美国举行谈判，称这是用于操纵金融和石油市场的“假消息”。</p><p>这一系列事件令市场对信息不对称的担忧进一步加剧。多家对冲基金指出，近几个月来，在美国政府官方公告发布前出现大额交易已非孤例，能源顾问也注意到数笔时机异常的大宗交易。一位大型对冲基金交易员表示，这种连续出现的异常交易已在投资者中造成“相当程度的挫败感”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>又现内幕交易？特朗普“TACO”前15分钟，原油期货交易量激增</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n又现内幕交易？特朗普“TACO”前15分钟，原油期货交易量激增\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-24 08:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特朗普发帖宣称美伊谈判&#34;富有成效&#34;的15分钟前，原油市场突现5.8亿美元大额抛售，随后油价应声大跌、美股期货跳涨。异常的时机令多家对冲基金直呼&#34;有人刚赚了一大笔钱&#34;。白宫否认内幕交易，伊朗方面随后却称消息纯属&#34;假新闻&#34;，一场真假难辨的信息战背后，市场信息不对称的隐忧持续发酵。</p></blockquote><p>在特朗普发布伊朗谈判帖文前约15分钟，原油市场出现一笔名义价值高达5.8亿美元的大额交易，引发市场对内幕交易的强烈质疑。</p><p>据英国《金融时报》报道，<strong>周一纽约时间上午6时49分至6时50分，约6200份布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货合约在短短一分钟内易手，名义价值约5.8亿美元。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d5a83e49b5e384690213c1bc6b76493\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1321\" tg-height=\"740\"/></p><p>同一时间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>迷你期货交易量出现突然飙升，打破了此前盘前交易的平淡局面。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe7ac13f192f465dc79746a92c84495\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"753\"/></p><p>仅仅15分钟后，特朗普在其社交媒体平台Truth Social发文称，美伊双方近日已进行&#34;富有成效的对话&#34;，随即引发全球能源市场大幅抛售，标普500股指期货和欧洲股市同步跳涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885da34bd595c9ccbdbdb53e78f27bab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"750\"/></p><p>这一异常交易时机令多家对冲基金感到不安。多位业内人士表示，这已是近几个月来美国政府官方公告发布前出现大额异常交易的又一案例，市场对信息泄露的担忧情绪持续升温。</p><h2 id=\"id_2660759289\">交易时机高度可疑，市场人士直指异常</h2><p>根据《金融时报》基于彭博数据的测算，上述约6200份布伦特和WTI期货合约的交易集中发生在6时50分前27秒，随后标普500股指期货价格也在数秒内出现跳升，成交量同步显著放大。</p><p>特朗普于7时04分发布帖文，宣称美伊之间已有&#34;富有成效的对话&#34;，消息触发全球能源市场急剧下跌，投资者纷纷削减对持续冲突的押注。</p><p>多位市场人士对这一时机表示高度警惕。一位在美国某券商任职的市场策略师表示：<strong>“很难证明因果关系……但你不得不想，究竟是谁会在特朗普发帖前15分钟如此积极地卖出期货合约？”</strong></p><p>一位拥有25年市场经验的对冲基金组合经理措辞更为直接：“从我观察市场的直觉来看，这实属异常。周一早上没有重要数据，也没有值得抢跑的美联储官员讲话，对于一个没有事件风险的交易日而言，这是一笔异常大的交易……有人刚刚赚了一大笔钱。”</p><p>能源咨询机构Energy Aspects衍生品主管Tim Skirrow则持相对审慎的态度。他表示，该时段布伦特和WTI的成交量“高于通常预期，但也并非过度异常”，并补充称近几周布伦特期货和期权市场已出现基金的“大规模资金流入”，“鉴于价格反应，几乎所有人都是多头，这几乎是引发如此剧烈波动的必要前提。”</p><h2 id=\"id_296539759\">白宫否认不当行为，伊朗随后否认谈判</h2><p>面对外界质疑，白宫发言人Kush Desai予以否认。<strong>他表示：“白宫不容忍任何政府官员利用内幕信息非法牟利，任何在没有证据的情况下暗示官员从事此类活动的说法，都是毫无根据且不负责任的报道。”</strong></p><p>事件并未就此平息。周一晚些时候，据新华社，卡利巴夫23日周一在社交媒体发文，否认已经与美国举行谈判，称这是用于操纵金融和石油市场的“假消息”。</p><p>这一系列事件令市场对信息不对称的担忧进一步加剧。多家对冲基金指出，近几个月来，在美国政府官方公告发布前出现大额交易已非孤例，能源顾问也注意到数笔时机异常的大宗交易。一位大型对冲基金交易员表示，这种连续出现的异常交易已在投资者中造成“相当程度的挫败感”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{"BK4209":"餐馆"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768214","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2621036632","content_text":"特朗普发帖宣称美伊谈判\"富有成效\"的15分钟前，原油市场突现5.8亿美元大额抛售，随后油价应声大跌、美股期货跳涨。异常的时机令多家对冲基金直呼\"有人刚赚了一大笔钱\"。白宫否认内幕交易，伊朗方面随后却称消息纯属\"假新闻\"，一场真假难辨的信息战背后，市场信息不对称的隐忧持续发酵。在特朗普发布伊朗谈判帖文前约15分钟，原油市场出现一笔名义价值高达5.8亿美元的大额交易，引发市场对内幕交易的强烈质疑。据英国《金融时报》报道，周一纽约时间上午6时49分至6时50分，约6200份布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货合约在短短一分钟内易手，名义价值约5.8亿美元。同一时间，标普500迷你期货交易量出现突然飙升，打破了此前盘前交易的平淡局面。仅仅15分钟后，特朗普在其社交媒体平台Truth 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