wky的个人主页 - 老虎社区

wky

wky

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IP属地：上海

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0勋章

2019-09-04

$宜人贷(YRD)$ 业绩其实还行主要是行业臭大街了不能按以前这样给高估值谁能力强出来给估一下值唐宁也不出来护个盘根本没有接盘啊[流泪]

2020-02-05

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$有人说疫情对瑞幸是利好因为卖的越多亏的越多[难过]

2017-12-02

下周能上20吗？

$迅雷(XNET)$ 22入的坑，13补了点，现在成本19多下周能解套吗？

下周能上20吗？

2019-09-13

$宜人贷(YRD)$最近应该是请了交易公司做了市值维护没有交易价值了

2017-08-15

vega64 性能还不如一年前的1080

$AMD(AMD)$ 功耗300w 对标的1080才180w 感觉老黄要挤牙膏了

vega64 性能还不如一年前的1080

2020-07-09

$跟谁学(GSX)$看推上好多做空的美韭也好绝望 larry 真是扬我国威啊[开心]

2019-02-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 马斯克宣布：为了保护地球，释放所有特斯拉电动汽车专利特斯拉创始人埃隆马斯克宣布，他已经释放了所有电动汽车制造商特斯拉的专利，作为应对气候变化努力的一部分。在一篇博客文章中，这位传奇的亿万富翁承诺，公司“不会针对任何善意使用我们技术的人提起专利诉讼。”有其他公司加入制造电动汽车的行列，世界将受益于技术的快速发展。

2020-07-13

$跟谁学(GSX)$能不能卖些 80 75 70 的put 减少点亏正股的损失

2020-06-15

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 35这里盘了一周了是向上还是向下呢？我猜是诱空

2020-01-22

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$42块增发的买家也不是傻子做空的要掂量掂量

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20241018 98.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,持有正股，但是之前卖出的TLT 20240930 98 CALL大概率会被行权，卖出同等数量的PUT增加一点盈利，而且98的价格也不怕接正股","text":"$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ 我开仓了$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ ,持有正股，但是之前卖出的TLT 20240930 98 CALL大概率会被行权，卖出同等数量的PUT增加一点盈利，而且98的价格也不怕接正股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350790904955152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4165037302708470","authorId":"4165037302708470","name":"Z先生2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2a7bc27d6c37e837d42cde4384da13","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4165037302708470","authorIdStr":"4165037302708470"},"content":"是covered call，有正股备兑的","text":"是covered call，有正股备兑的","html":"是covered 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尝试做空纳指","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45065ee094d41b48a53e6a25141b9b7f","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346421960179816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320216055419032,"gmtCreate":1719207984358,"gmtModify":1719208000040,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447926573484248","authorIdStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL\">$TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL\">$TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2580b0a2a9d4e1672e8a58ed7aa7aae4","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320216055419032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":240151380930864,"gmtCreate":1699649240155,"gmtModify":1699649242223,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447926573484248","authorIdStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"夸大了空头 好多都是期现套利盘 ，目前市场长债现货利率高于期货","listText":"夸大了空头 好多都是期现套利盘 ，目前市场长债现货利率高于期货","text":"夸大了空头 好多都是期现套利盘 ，目前市场长债现货利率高于期货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/240151380930864","repostId":"1123548071","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123548071","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1699350800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123548071?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-07 17:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"空头创新高，流动性新低！“全球资产定价之锚”一点就炸","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123548071","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美债现在的空头交易极度的拥挤，净空头仓位基本达到历史极高。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“全球资产定价之锚”美国国债的流动性再度枯竭，在空头头寸位于新高的背景下，美债收益率短期可能出现较大波动，或将对金融稳定构成风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">11月6日，媒体报道称，就在美国财政部与美联储的双重好消息推动美债大幅上涨之前，对冲基金所持有的美国国债空头头寸增至创纪录水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至10月31日的最新数据显示，<strong>杠杆基金的美国国债期货净空头头寸增至2006年以来的最高水平</strong>。尽管现金债券上周出现反弹，但投资者的押注仍在继续。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正如麦格理集团驻新加坡策略师Gareth Berry表示，<strong>上周美国国债的空头头寸似乎达到了极端，而逼空行情是一场迟早会发生的“意外”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要注意的是，对冲基金在此之前已经<strong>增加了高杠杆国债基差交易头寸</strong>，而在国债收益率连续三天大幅下滑的背景下，<strong>国债流动性进一步恶化</strong>，数据显示，美国国债的流动性<strong>处于2010年以来最差水平</strong>（比2020年收益率崩溃的峰值更糟糕，当时美联储专门介入以确保流动性）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85c767018c60b1878447c35f1e3c58f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储在此前的研究报告中指出，对冲基金可能已经增加了高杠杆国债基差交易头寸，此举对金融稳定构成风险。<strong>而基差交易的具体规模有多大，则连美联储也只能猜测。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/807982cb1978e96f57cb4c644c7c0251\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美联储报告指出，当前情况似乎与2018年和2019年的情况相似</strong>：当时由于美联储加息提振了资产管理公司的对冲需求，对冲基金基差交易迅速增长。而当疫情爆发后，资金纷纷转向避险资产，并撤出基差交易，从而引发了债市失稳，迫使美联储承诺提供数万亿美元的刺激资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研究人员写道<strong>：如果基差交易头寸快速上升，那么对冲基金所持有的大量敞口将再度构成影响金融市场稳定的脆弱性因素。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_526832833\" style=\"text-align: start;\">一场“世纪对决”正在进行中</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻此前提及，10月底，美国国债利率攀升至十多年来的新高之际，市场对其未来走势的分歧达到了前所未有的程度，而美债收益率未来的大幅波动正关乎所有资产命运。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一方观点认为，美国国债的“苦日子”还会继续，收益率将继续维持在历史高位，非商业投机投资者(ES）继续加大空头头寸。根据高盛数据统计，<strong>美国国债期货净空头头寸DV01规模仍处在创纪录的水平。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而另一方观点认为，美债收益率已经触顶，开始“抄底”美国长债，iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（TLT）看涨期权的押注上周激增。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在多空双方世纪对决进行之时，上周美国国债在美国财政部新一季再融资债券发行规模低于市场预期，且美联储暗示加息周期已经结束的双重利好下迎来了大反弹。</p><p>可是，当美债“咸鱼翻身”之时，位于高位的空头仓位或将出现平仓导致的大规模的踩踏。</p><h2 id=\"id_3316748545\" style=\"text-align: start;\">当史诗级的逼空行情出现或将出现踩踏</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华创证券研究所副所长，首席宏观分析师张瑜做客华尔街见闻指出，美债收益率短期可能出现较大波动，张瑜认为，美债现在的空头交易极度的拥挤。CBOT的10年美债净空头仓位，基本上达到历史极高，接下来一旦平仓就会形成踩踏，利率就会下得特别快：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说，对于现在短期美债，对于利率上行的押注，仓位已经非常极致。这是有数据以来最高的一次，上一次这么高是2018年的10月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以我们认为在四季度美债利率的波动率应该是大幅加大，并不是简单地看多和看空。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">张瑜认为，短期可能会看到美债利率可能会呈现一个大的N字形走势，十年美债短期或许可以再上行30-40个BP，因为多头现在仓位很小，可能会出现很多极端的资产价格定位：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以未来可能会看到美债利率有一个非常大的波动率，它其实是一个风险，因为你并不能判断它是多还是空，它可能是波动率的一个放大，有可能会带来美国回购市场上的短端资金利率的紧张，流动性紧张都是有可能的。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>空头创新高，流动性新低！“全球资产定价之锚”一点就炸</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n空头创新高，流动性新低！“全球资产定价之锚”一点就炸\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-07 17:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701440><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“全球资产定价之锚”美国国债的流动性再度枯竭，在空头头寸位于新高的背景下，美债收益率短期可能出现较大波动，或将对金融稳定构成风险。11月6日，媒体报道称，就在美国财政部与美联储的双重好消息推动美债大幅上涨之前，对冲基金所持有的美国国债空头头寸增至创纪录水平。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至10月31日的最新数据显示，杠杆基金的美国国债期货净空头头寸增至2006年以来的最高水平。尽管现金债券...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701440\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadcfb88697d09bb90cb85e829df2277","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701440","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1123548071","content_text":"“全球资产定价之锚”美国国债的流动性再度枯竭，在空头头寸位于新高的背景下，美债收益率短期可能出现较大波动，或将对金融稳定构成风险。11月6日，媒体报道称，就在美国财政部与美联储的双重好消息推动美债大幅上涨之前，对冲基金所持有的美国国债空头头寸增至创纪录水平。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至10月31日的最新数据显示，杠杆基金的美国国债期货净空头头寸增至2006年以来的最高水平。尽管现金债券上周出现反弹，但投资者的押注仍在继续。正如麦格理集团驻新加坡策略师Gareth Berry表示，上周美国国债的空头头寸似乎达到了极端，而逼空行情是一场迟早会发生的“意外”。需要注意的是，对冲基金在此之前已经增加了高杠杆国债基差交易头寸，而在国债收益率连续三天大幅下滑的背景下，国债流动性进一步恶化，数据显示，美国国债的流动性处于2010年以来最差水平（比2020年收益率崩溃的峰值更糟糕，当时美联储专门介入以确保流动性）。美联储在此前的研究报告中指出，对冲基金可能已经增加了高杠杆国债基差交易头寸，此举对金融稳定构成风险。而基差交易的具体规模有多大，则连美联储也只能猜测。美联储报告指出，当前情况似乎与2018年和2019年的情况相似：当时由于美联储加息提振了资产管理公司的对冲需求，对冲基金基差交易迅速增长。而当疫情爆发后，资金纷纷转向避险资产，并撤出基差交易，从而引发了债市失稳，迫使美联储承诺提供数万亿美元的刺激资金。研究人员写道：如果基差交易头寸快速上升，那么对冲基金所持有的大量敞口将再度构成影响金融市场稳定的脆弱性因素。一场“世纪对决”正在进行中华尔街见闻此前提及，10月底，美国国债利率攀升至十多年来的新高之际，市场对其未来走势的分歧达到了前所未有的程度，而美债收益率未来的大幅波动正关乎所有资产命运。一方观点认为，美国国债的“苦日子”还会继续，收益率将继续维持在历史高位，非商业投机投资者(ES）继续加大空头头寸。根据高盛数据统计，美国国债期货净空头头寸DV01规模仍处在创纪录的水平。而另一方观点认为，美债收益率已经触顶，开始“抄底”美国长债，iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（TLT）看涨期权的押注上周激增。就在多空双方世纪对决进行之时，上周美国国债在美国财政部新一季再融资债券发行规模低于市场预期，且美联储暗示加息周期已经结束的双重利好下迎来了大反弹。可是，当美债“咸鱼翻身”之时，位于高位的空头仓位或将出现平仓导致的大规模的踩踏。当史诗级的逼空行情出现或将出现踩踏华创证券研究所副所长，首席宏观分析师张瑜做客华尔街见闻指出，美债收益率短期可能出现较大波动，张瑜认为，美债现在的空头交易极度的拥挤。CBOT的10年美债净空头仓位，基本上达到历史极高，接下来一旦平仓就会形成踩踏，利率就会下得特别快：也就是说，对于现在短期美债，对于利率上行的押注，仓位已经非常极致。这是有数据以来最高的一次，上一次这么高是2018年的10月。所以我们认为在四季度美债利率的波动率应该是大幅加大，并不是简单地看多和看空。张瑜认为，短期可能会看到美债利率可能会呈现一个大的N字形走势，十年美债短期或许可以再上行30-40个BP，因为多头现在仓位很小，可能会出现很多极端的资产价格定位：所以未来可能会看到美债利率有一个非常大的波动率，它其实是一个风险，因为你并不能判断它是多还是空，它可能是波动率的一个放大，有可能会带来美国回购市场上的短端资金利率的紧张，流动性紧张都是有可能的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669041628,"gmtCreate":1662007197072,"gmtModify":1662007197072,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447926573484248","authorIdStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"波动这么大 而且上窜下跳的&nbsp;没人玩了","listText":"波动这么大 而且上窜下跳的&nbsp;没人玩了","text":"波动这么大 而且上窜下跳的 没人玩了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669041628","repostId":"1121784380","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1121784380","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661990095,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121784380?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街再次警告油市问题，明星基金经理高呼市场被彻底破坏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121784380","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在明星基金经理Pierre Andurand质疑期油没有原因就能一天跌10美元前，高盛指出，最近价格下跌是因为期货和现货脱节，但又认为，商品的疲软因缺乏流动性而被夸大，这反而让入手变得很有吸引力。上周","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>在明星基金经理Pierre Andurand质疑期油没有原因就能一天跌10美元前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>指出，最近价格下跌是因为期货和现货脱节，但又认为，商品的疲软因缺乏流动性而被夸大，这反而让入手变得很有吸引力。</blockquote><p>上周沙特能源大臣警告OPEC+因可能油价与基本面而被迫减产，这周，全球名列前茅的大宗商品对冲基金Andurand Capital Management的创始人、以看多商品闻名业内的欧洲明星基金经理Pierre Andurand也高呼油市出问题。</p><p>当地时间8月31日周三，Andurand发推称，石油期货市场已经被彻底破坏，没有任何明显原因，期货油价就能一天跌10美元。</p><p>Andurand质疑油市的前一天，本周二，国际原油期货自7月12日以来首次一日收跌逾5%，美国WTI原油盘中跌超6%，布伦特原油盘中甚至跌超7%，全数抹平周一反弹涨超4%所创的7月18日以来最大涨幅，周一才创7月末以来新高就跌至上周一以来低谷。</p><p>Andurand的质疑是华尔街最近再次指出油市的问题。</p><p>华尔街见闻稍早文章提到，将近两个月前，就有分析师发现，原油期货市场正因担心经济放缓而出现抛售，而现货市场看起来仍相当稳定，两者之间出现了错位。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">加拿大皇家银行</a>表示，石油金融市场正与极其紧张的实物市场严重脱节，实物市场的定价体现的是供应的稀缺性，而金融市场的定价体现的是经济衰退。这可能会产生一些混乱的信号。</p><p>自今年2月俄乌冲突升级以来，油价有十多天都出现了单日超过5美元的价格波动。高盛大宗商品研究全球主管Jeff Currie等分析师最近在报告中解释，近期商品下跌主要是由期货市场和现货市场之间的脱节引起的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d7d7d29b2052491cfcf300fbc1b358a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然这样的大幅波动过去被视为非正常现象，但在原油期货未平仓合约量处于七年来最低谷之际，大波动已经成为常态。渣打银行的报告称，上周四种主要布伦特和WTI合约的合计未平仓规模自2015年6月以来首次低于40亿桶。高盛最近报告指出，投机性的净多头仓位和商品的未平仓合约都在剧减。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00182b29aaccf3ac844edce86d001191\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>尽管如此，高盛仍然看好商品、尤其是石油，其最近报告将高盛GSCI和BCOM商品指数的总回报率预期分别上调至38.3%和13.6%。报告称，能源极度短缺的时代，石油是最后可以倚靠的大宗商品。由于缺乏流动性而被夸大的大宗商品市场疲软，反而是一个很有吸引力的入手点。</p><p>同时高盛指出，宏观形势仍然具有挑战性，美元短期内可能进一步上涨。其中提到的最大风险包括投资者因波动性上升、追加保证金而进行的大规模金融清算，以及对经济衰退的担忧最终会引发价格下跌。因此不能完全排除再次出现流动性驱动的抛售。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街再次警告油市问题，明星基金经理高呼市场被彻底破坏</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街再次警告油市问题，明星基金经理高呼市场被彻底破坏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 07:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3669260><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在明星基金经理Pierre Andurand质疑期油没有原因就能一天跌10美元前，高盛指出，最近价格下跌是因为期货和现货脱节，但又认为，商品的疲软因缺乏流动性而被夸大，这反而让入手变得很有吸引力。上周沙特能源大臣警告OPEC+因可能油价与基本面而被迫减产，这周，全球名列前茅的大宗商品对冲基金Andurand Capital Management的创始人、以看多商品闻名业内的欧洲明星基金经理...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3669260\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4a2187b267c2b09c55779e0a8af4ab","relate_stocks":{"BK4207":"综合性银行","GS":"高盛","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","RY":"加拿大皇家银行","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3669260","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121784380","content_text":"在明星基金经理Pierre Andurand质疑期油没有原因就能一天跌10美元前，高盛指出，最近价格下跌是因为期货和现货脱节，但又认为，商品的疲软因缺乏流动性而被夸大，这反而让入手变得很有吸引力。上周沙特能源大臣警告OPEC+因可能油价与基本面而被迫减产，这周，全球名列前茅的大宗商品对冲基金Andurand Capital Management的创始人、以看多商品闻名业内的欧洲明星基金经理Pierre Andurand也高呼油市出问题。当地时间8月31日周三，Andurand发推称，石油期货市场已经被彻底破坏，没有任何明显原因，期货油价就能一天跌10美元。Andurand质疑油市的前一天，本周二，国际原油期货自7月12日以来首次一日收跌逾5%，美国WTI原油盘中跌超6%，布伦特原油盘中甚至跌超7%，全数抹平周一反弹涨超4%所创的7月18日以来最大涨幅，周一才创7月末以来新高就跌至上周一以来低谷。Andurand的质疑是华尔街最近再次指出油市的问题。华尔街见闻稍早文章提到，将近两个月前，就有分析师发现，原油期货市场正因担心经济放缓而出现抛售，而现货市场看起来仍相当稳定，两者之间出现了错位。加拿大皇家银行表示，石油金融市场正与极其紧张的实物市场严重脱节，实物市场的定价体现的是供应的稀缺性，而金融市场的定价体现的是经济衰退。这可能会产生一些混乱的信号。自今年2月俄乌冲突升级以来，油价有十多天都出现了单日超过5美元的价格波动。高盛大宗商品研究全球主管Jeff Currie等分析师最近在报告中解释，近期商品下跌主要是由期货市场和现货市场之间的脱节引起的。虽然这样的大幅波动过去被视为非正常现象，但在原油期货未平仓合约量处于七年来最低谷之际，大波动已经成为常态。渣打银行的报告称，上周四种主要布伦特和WTI合约的合计未平仓规模自2015年6月以来首次低于40亿桶。高盛最近报告指出，投机性的净多头仓位和商品的未平仓合约都在剧减。尽管如此，高盛仍然看好商品、尤其是石油，其最近报告将高盛GSCI和BCOM商品指数的总回报率预期分别上调至38.3%和13.6%。报告称，能源极度短缺的时代，石油是最后可以倚靠的大宗商品。由于缺乏流动性而被夸大的大宗商品市场疲软，反而是一个很有吸引力的入手点。同时高盛指出，宏观形势仍然具有挑战性，美元短期内可能进一步上涨。其中提到的最大风险包括投资者因波动性上升、追加保证金而进行的大规模金融清算，以及对经济衰退的担忧最终会引发价格下跌。因此不能完全排除再次出现流动性驱动的抛售。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"GS":0.9,"USO":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"RY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687946488,"gmtCreate":1660726283147,"gmtModify":1660726283147,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447926573484248","authorIdStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"偏空 预计小跌","listText":"偏空 预计小跌","text":"偏空 预计小跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687946488","repostId":"1141574679","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634159073,"gmtCreate":1647414528865,"gmtModify":1647414528865,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447926573484248","authorIdStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这周到期的145put 不早就归零了 还等最后几分钱[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"这周到期的145put 不早就归零了 还等最后几分钱[开心]&nbsp;","text":"这周到期的145put 不早就归零了 还等最后几分钱[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634159073","repostId":"2219753869","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2219753869","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647394557,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2219753869?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-16 09:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"港股科技股见底了吗？段永平出手，“卖苹果卖巴菲特”买腾讯","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219753869","media":"券商中国","summary":"港股科技股见底了吗？\"卖苹果卖巴菲特\"买腾讯，段永平又出手，什么信号？单日暴跌11%，科技股再遭抛售潮科技股的抛售潮，仍在继续。3月14日、15日盘中，被称为“中国巴菲特”的段永平连续表态，将卖伯克希尔，继续抄底加仓腾讯；另外，多只跟踪恒生科技指数的ETF总份额逆势大增。相较于2021年1月的高点，恒生科技指数的累计跌幅已超过68%，30只成份股的总市值相比最高点已累计蒸发超10万亿港元，不可谓不惨烈。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>信心比黄金更重要。</blockquote><p>港股市场正在经历“至暗时刻”，本周前两个交易日，恒生指数接连重挫，两日跌幅超10%，连续跌破20000点、19000点关口，科技互联网板块成为杀跌重灾区，恒生科技指数14日的跌幅达11%，创历史最大单日跌幅，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>2日重挫19%。2021年1月至今，恒生科技指数的30只成份股的总市值合计蒸发已经超过10万亿港元。</p><p>面对这一轮科技股的抛售潮，坚定看好中国新经济的投资者仍在抄底、补仓。3月14日、15日盘中，被称为“中国巴菲特”的段永平连续表态，计划卖出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.B\">伯克希尔B</a>股以及苹果，用来抄底腾讯；另外，多只跟踪恒生科技指数的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>总份额逆势大增。</p><p>那么，站在当前时点看，中国互联网巨头的政策、经营与估值风险是否已经充分释放？市场是否反应过度？</p><p><b>单日暴跌11%，科技股再遭抛售潮</b></p><p>科技股的抛售潮，仍在继续。</p><p>3月15日，港股的科技互联网板块再遭重挫，截止收盘，跌幅达8.1%，再创历史最低收盘点位，其中腾讯控股股价跌破300港元/股，全天跌幅超10%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>亦大跌超10%，续创历史新低。前一天，港股的科技板块已经遭遇了一轮抛售，恒生科技指数单日跌幅高达11%，创历史最大单日跌幅。本周以来，恒生科技指数的30只成份股的总市值合计蒸发超2万亿港元。</p><p>其实，自2022年开年以来，全球科技股似乎集体进入“寒冬”，一直跌跌不休，恒生科技指数的年内跌幅已达到38.8%。</p><p>将时间周期的起点拉长至2021年1月，当时是香港科技板块的高光时刻，恒生科技指数一度突破1万点，腾讯、美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等互联网巨头股价均创新高。随后的一年多时间，科技板块持续遭遇资金抛售，恒生科技指数较历史高点的累计跌幅已超68%。</p><p>具体到个股而言，2021年1月至今，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">阿里健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">平安好医生</a>、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a>等的最大回撤幅度超75%，美团、阿里巴巴港股的最大回撤幅度也超过70%，腾讯控股的最大跌幅也超过54%。</p><p>其中，在这一轮大跌前夕，美团一度是港股第五大市值公司，其总市值一度高达25202亿港元，仅次于腾讯、阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">工商银行</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>，截至3月15日收盘，美团市值已跌至6505亿港元，累计蒸发高达18697亿港元。</p><p>另外，据Wind数据显示，2021年1月至今，香港恒生科技指数的30只成份股的总市值合计蒸发已经超10万亿港元。</p><p>同样具备新经济科技属性的中概股，亦是同样的命运。</p><p>2021年初以来，大部分中概股跌幅巨大，甚至部分中概股累计跌幅已超过90%，粗略推算，中概公司从2021年高位的市值累计缩水超过1万亿美元（折合人民币超6.3万亿元）。</p><p>其实，2022年以来，全球的科技股都遭受了不同程度的抛售潮，美股的高估值科技股也未能幸免。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">法国兴业银行</a>的Andrew Lapthorne提供的数据显示，纳斯达克3000多只成分股中，近三分之二的股票较52周的高点至少下跌了25%，近43%的公司损失了一半以上的市值，近五分之一的股票跌幅超过75%，成为金融危机以来最严重的跌幅。</p><p>以美元计算，自去年11月的峰值以来，以科技股为主的市场已累计损失超过5万亿美元的市值，这也导致全球大部分科技富豪的身价遭遇了不同程度地缩水。据彭博社统计，自2022年以来，全球最富有的500人总计损失一度超过8000亿美元。</p><p><b>谁在越跌越买？</b></p><p>面对这一轮科技股的抛售潮，坚定看好中国新经济的投资者仍在抄底、补仓。3月14日、15日盘中，被称为“中国巴菲特”的段永平连续表态，将卖伯克希尔，继续抄底加仓腾讯；另外，多只跟踪恒生科技指数的ETF总份额逆势大增。</p><p>就在前一天，段永平已经表态，将加仓腾讯，其表示：“这个礼拜五有一批145的苹果的put到期，很久以前卖的。这笔钱出来可以考虑放一半在腾讯上。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf5651c2a95fc53ac68a1807c94852b7\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80ddb18fdfb43571a5442cbedfd94e79\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>近2日，腾讯股价连续遭遇大跌，2日累计跌幅接近19%，年内跌幅已高达32.8%，这在腾讯历史上是非常罕见的，其最新总市值已跌至2.86万亿港元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc13fb5ce87a57e27729c9f645f9e1d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>此前，段永平曾公开披露了加仓腾讯的计划：“股价每掉10%，加一次仓。”但他解释称，当前腾讯占其仓位比重“非常低”，目前对他的吸引力不足以卖出其他仓位去换，因此只以9%-11%的下跌幅度为加仓标准，但股价若“再掉几次就要认真想想了”。</p><p>抄底腾讯、阿里巴巴的阵营中，不乏海外投资大佬、机构。第三大海外中国股票基金——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>（卢森堡）中国精选股票基金披露的数据显示，今年1月份，该基金大幅加仓了腾讯控股，增持幅度达100%，持仓市值为7.37亿美元，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、阿里巴巴等持仓未变。</p><p>另外，“股神”巴菲特的黄金搭档查理·芒格对阿里巴巴的配置也非常坚决。其在2021年第一、三、四季度连续抄底阿里巴巴，目前累计持有阿里巴巴60.2万份美国存托凭证（ADR）。</p><p>今年2月中旬，查理·芒格在 Daily Journal 年会上谈及为何选择投资中国时表示，在中国投的每一块钱都更有优势。他们所投资的公司相对于竞争对手更强，价格却更低。</p><p>另一股逆势抄底的资金，来自于基民，正在持续买入跟踪中国科技互联网的交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）。</p><p>据Wind数据显示，截至3月14日，中概互联网ETF的总份额为354.4亿份，比年初时增加了85.6亿份，增幅超31.8%。按区间成交均价估算，今年以来约有102亿元资金净流入中概互联网ETF。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eeede62b338459e30c29d989b3d812c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外，华夏基金旗下恒生科技指数ETF、华泰柏瑞基金旗下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">恒生科技ETF</a>的基金份额攀升也很快，今年以来，这2只ETF的基金总份额分别增加了70亿份、27.3亿份。</p><p>随着港股的持续大跌，南向资金也加入了抄底阵营。据Wind数据显示，3月145日，南向资金净流入93.84亿港元，创出年内单日净流入新高，年初至今累计净流入已超过880亿港元。其中，超跌的科技股是南向资金买入的重点，以腾讯为例，年初以来，港股通持有腾讯股票数量增加了2632万股；另外，港股通对美团的持仓也增加了1.09亿股。</p><p><b>至暗时刻何时过去？</b></p><p>相较于2021年1月的高点，恒生科技指数的累计跌幅已超过68%，30只成份股的总市值相比最高点已累计蒸发超10万亿港元，不可谓不惨烈。</p><p>站在当前时点看，中国互联网巨头的政策、经营与估值风险是否已经充分释放？市场是否反应过度？</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">交银国际</a>董事总经理兼首席策略师洪灝表示，现在的交易，已经跟基本面没有关系了，大家都在准备一个最差的预期（有些资金在抛售），现在已经不是说基本面有多强或多弱，因为现在市场完全是被情绪左右的。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00665\">海通国际</a>认为，互联网行业未来能否实现困境反转还需进一步观察政策的落实，不过目前互联网行业监管层面已经开始出现一些积极信号。</p><p>3月15日，据彭博报道，美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）表示，该委员会正与中国监管部门保持积极沟通，近期已多次举行会谈，双方致力于达成一份合作协议，以便其能够检查在美注册的中国内地及部分从事内地业务的香港审计师事务所。</p><p>PCAOB进一步表示，愿意与中国政府部门保持合作关系，采用目前其与数十家其他国家或地区之间类似的合作方式开展对相关会计师事务所的检查和调查。</p><p><b>另外，一位专注港股投资的大型基金公司基金经理也表示，当前港股市场风险释放比较充分，恒生科技指数已经处于问世以来最低估值区域，市场对风险的反应或许过度了。</b></p><p>以腾讯为例，截至最新收盘，腾讯的PE（TTM）已降至12.35倍，已经是十年以来的最低估值，甚至是腾讯上市以来的最低水位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf5651c2a95fc53ac68a1807c94852b7\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b7c7a3515ea8efedeef4b63e1dd89a9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>除了政策、估值，互联网企业内生的增长动力也是决定股价走势的关键因素。</p><p>反观腾讯的业绩，由于腾讯尚未披露2021年年报，因为以其发布的2021年三季报为例，腾讯在去年第三季度营收1423.68亿元，市场预估1454.1亿元，同比增长13%；第三季度净利润395亿元，市场预估326亿元，同比增长2.5%。有机构分析人士认为，尽管受监管等因素的影响，2021年腾讯的净利润增速有所下滑，但营收仍保持较高的增长，未来随着监管政策趋缓，腾讯逐渐适应监管环境，大概率仍将重新回归增长。</p><p>其实，对于中国新经济的监管政策，也有业内人士认为，这或许是一次正常回归，互联网与新经济作为新兴业态，前期适当政策宽松有利于行业发展，目前行业已发展成熟，且监管层对于数字经济的理解亦进一步加深，近期互联网监管加强是此前监管缺位的正常回归，市场潜在的影响反应过于悲观。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>也认为，2021 年中国互联网板块监管趋严在短期内对板块估值及业绩产生了压力，但监管并非旨在限制互联网发展，而是为互联网长期可持续发展提供更清晰指引。</p><p>反观大洋彼岸的美国，对科技互联网巨头的监管一直都非常严苛，在适应监管节奏之后，美股的科技互联网巨头的经营业绩，大部分都重新回归正增长。</p><p>因此，市场资金对中国科技互联网巨头的未来业绩增长的担忧，或许过于悲观。</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股科技股见底了吗？段永平出手，“卖苹果卖巴菲特”买腾讯\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-16 09:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8EQHSrnRHxI><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>信心比黄金更重要。港股市场正在经历“至暗时刻”，本周前两个交易日，恒生指数接连重挫，两日跌幅超10%，连续跌破20000点、19000点关口，科技互联网板块成为杀跌重灾区，恒生科技指数14日的跌幅达11%，创历史最大单日跌幅，腾讯控股2日重挫19%。2021年1月至今，恒生科技指数的30只成份股的总市值合计蒸发已经超过10万亿港元。面对这一轮科技股的抛售潮，坚定看好中国新经济的投资者仍在抄底、补仓...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8EQHSrnRHxI\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cfb22ab43b8dff114c95ae9cfcc01f0","relate_stocks":{"159741":"港股科技","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4575":"芯片概念","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BK4566":"资本集团","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK1502":"双十一","BK4515":"5G概念","BK1531":"手游股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4574":"无人驾驶","00700":"腾讯控股","BK4573":"虚拟现实","AAPL":"苹果","BK1526":"科网股","BK1517":"云办公","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","BK1516":"腾讯概念"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8EQHSrnRHxI","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2219753869","content_text":"信心比黄金更重要。港股市场正在经历“至暗时刻”，本周前两个交易日，恒生指数接连重挫，两日跌幅超10%，连续跌破20000点、19000点关口，科技互联网板块成为杀跌重灾区，恒生科技指数14日的跌幅达11%，创历史最大单日跌幅，腾讯控股2日重挫19%。2021年1月至今，恒生科技指数的30只成份股的总市值合计蒸发已经超过10万亿港元。面对这一轮科技股的抛售潮，坚定看好中国新经济的投资者仍在抄底、补仓。3月14日、15日盘中，被称为“中国巴菲特”的段永平连续表态，计划卖出伯克希尔B股以及苹果，用来抄底腾讯；另外，多只跟踪恒生科技指数的Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF总份额逆势大增。那么，站在当前时点看，中国互联网巨头的政策、经营与估值风险是否已经充分释放？市场是否反应过度？单日暴跌11%，科技股再遭抛售潮科技股的抛售潮，仍在继续。3月15日，港股的科技互联网板块再遭重挫，截止收盘，跌幅达8.1%，再创历史最低收盘点位，其中腾讯控股股价跌破300港元/股，全天跌幅超10%；阿里巴巴亦大跌超10%，续创历史新低。前一天，港股的科技板块已经遭遇了一轮抛售，恒生科技指数单日跌幅高达11%，创历史最大单日跌幅。本周以来，恒生科技指数的30只成份股的总市值合计蒸发超2万亿港元。其实，自2022年开年以来，全球科技股似乎集体进入“寒冬”，一直跌跌不休，恒生科技指数的年内跌幅已达到38.8%。将时间周期的起点拉长至2021年1月，当时是香港科技板块的高光时刻，恒生科技指数一度突破1万点，腾讯、美团、京东等互联网巨头股价均创新高。随后的一年多时间，科技板块持续遭遇资金抛售，恒生科技指数较历史高点的累计跌幅已超68%。具体到个股而言，2021年1月至今，阿里健康、哔哩哔哩、平安好医生、快手、京东健康等的最大回撤幅度超75%，美团、阿里巴巴港股的最大回撤幅度也超过70%，腾讯控股的最大跌幅也超过54%。其中，在这一轮大跌前夕，美团一度是港股第五大市值公司，其总市值一度高达25202亿港元，仅次于腾讯、阿里、工商银行和招商银行，截至3月15日收盘，美团市值已跌至6505亿港元，累计蒸发高达18697亿港元。另外，据Wind数据显示，2021年1月至今，香港恒生科技指数的30只成份股的总市值合计蒸发已经超10万亿港元。同样具备新经济科技属性的中概股，亦是同样的命运。2021年初以来，大部分中概股跌幅巨大，甚至部分中概股累计跌幅已超过90%，粗略推算，中概公司从2021年高位的市值累计缩水超过1万亿美元（折合人民币超6.3万亿元）。其实，2022年以来，全球的科技股都遭受了不同程度的抛售潮，美股的高估值科技股也未能幸免。据法国兴业银行的Andrew Lapthorne提供的数据显示，纳斯达克3000多只成分股中，近三分之二的股票较52周的高点至少下跌了25%，近43%的公司损失了一半以上的市值，近五分之一的股票跌幅超过75%，成为金融危机以来最严重的跌幅。以美元计算，自去年11月的峰值以来，以科技股为主的市场已累计损失超过5万亿美元的市值，这也导致全球大部分科技富豪的身价遭遇了不同程度地缩水。据彭博社统计，自2022年以来，全球最富有的500人总计损失一度超过8000亿美元。谁在越跌越买？面对这一轮科技股的抛售潮，坚定看好中国新经济的投资者仍在抄底、补仓。3月14日、15日盘中，被称为“中国巴菲特”的段永平连续表态，将卖伯克希尔，继续抄底加仓腾讯；另外，多只跟踪恒生科技指数的ETF总份额逆势大增。就在前一天，段永平已经表态，将加仓腾讯，其表示：“这个礼拜五有一批145的苹果的put到期，很久以前卖的。这笔钱出来可以考虑放一半在腾讯上。”近2日，腾讯股价连续遭遇大跌，2日累计跌幅接近19%，年内跌幅已高达32.8%，这在腾讯历史上是非常罕见的，其最新总市值已跌至2.86万亿港元。此前，段永平曾公开披露了加仓腾讯的计划：“股价每掉10%，加一次仓。”但他解释称，当前腾讯占其仓位比重“非常低”，目前对他的吸引力不足以卖出其他仓位去换，因此只以9%-11%的下跌幅度为加仓标准，但股价若“再掉几次就要认真想想了”。抄底腾讯、阿里巴巴的阵营中，不乏海外投资大佬、机构。第三大海外中国股票基金——瑞银（卢森堡）中国精选股票基金披露的数据显示，今年1月份，该基金大幅加仓了腾讯控股，增持幅度达100%，持仓市值为7.37亿美元，网易、阿里巴巴等持仓未变。另外，“股神”巴菲特的黄金搭档查理·芒格对阿里巴巴的配置也非常坚决。其在2021年第一、三、四季度连续抄底阿里巴巴，目前累计持有阿里巴巴60.2万份美国存托凭证（ADR）。今年2月中旬，查理·芒格在 Daily Journal 年会上谈及为何选择投资中国时表示，在中国投的每一块钱都更有优势。他们所投资的公司相对于竞争对手更强，价格却更低。另一股逆势抄底的资金，来自于基民，正在持续买入跟踪中国科技互联网的交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）。据Wind数据显示，截至3月14日，中概互联网ETF的总份额为354.4亿份，比年初时增加了85.6亿份，增幅超31.8%。按区间成交均价估算，今年以来约有102亿元资金净流入中概互联网ETF。另外，华夏基金旗下恒生科技指数ETF、华泰柏瑞基金旗下恒生科技ETF的基金份额攀升也很快，今年以来，这2只ETF的基金总份额分别增加了70亿份、27.3亿份。随着港股的持续大跌，南向资金也加入了抄底阵营。据Wind数据显示，3月145日，南向资金净流入93.84亿港元，创出年内单日净流入新高，年初至今累计净流入已超过880亿港元。其中，超跌的科技股是南向资金买入的重点，以腾讯为例，年初以来，港股通持有腾讯股票数量增加了2632万股；另外，港股通对美团的持仓也增加了1.09亿股。至暗时刻何时过去？相较于2021年1月的高点，恒生科技指数的累计跌幅已超过68%，30只成份股的总市值相比最高点已累计蒸发超10万亿港元，不可谓不惨烈。站在当前时点看，中国互联网巨头的政策、经营与估值风险是否已经充分释放？市场是否反应过度？交银国际董事总经理兼首席策略师洪灝表示，现在的交易，已经跟基本面没有关系了，大家都在准备一个最差的预期（有些资金在抛售），现在已经不是说基本面有多强或多弱，因为现在市场完全是被情绪左右的。海通国际认为，互联网行业未来能否实现困境反转还需进一步观察政策的落实，不过目前互联网行业监管层面已经开始出现一些积极信号。3月15日，据彭博报道，美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）表示，该委员会正与中国监管部门保持积极沟通，近期已多次举行会谈，双方致力于达成一份合作协议，以便其能够检查在美注册的中国内地及部分从事内地业务的香港审计师事务所。PCAOB进一步表示，愿意与中国政府部门保持合作关系，采用目前其与数十家其他国家或地区之间类似的合作方式开展对相关会计师事务所的检查和调查。另外，一位专注港股投资的大型基金公司基金经理也表示，当前港股市场风险释放比较充分，恒生科技指数已经处于问世以来最低估值区域，市场对风险的反应或许过度了。以腾讯为例，截至最新收盘，腾讯的PE（TTM）已降至12.35倍，已经是十年以来的最低估值，甚至是腾讯上市以来的最低水位。除了政策、估值，互联网企业内生的增长动力也是决定股价走势的关键因素。反观腾讯的业绩，由于腾讯尚未披露2021年年报，因为以其发布的2021年三季报为例，腾讯在去年第三季度营收1423.68亿元，市场预估1454.1亿元，同比增长13%；第三季度净利润395亿元，市场预估326亿元，同比增长2.5%。有机构分析人士认为，尽管受监管等因素的影响，2021年腾讯的净利润增速有所下滑，但营收仍保持较高的增长，未来随着监管政策趋缓，腾讯逐渐适应监管环境，大概率仍将重新回归增长。其实，对于中国新经济的监管政策，也有业内人士认为，这或许是一次正常回归，互联网与新经济作为新兴业态，前期适当政策宽松有利于行业发展，目前行业已发展成熟，且监管层对于数字经济的理解亦进一步加深，近期互联网监管加强是此前监管缺位的正常回归，市场潜在的影响反应过于悲观。华泰证券也认为，2021 年中国互联网板块监管趋严在短期内对板块估值及业绩产生了压力，但监管并非旨在限制互联网发展，而是为互联网长期可持续发展提供更清晰指引。反观大洋彼岸的美国，对科技互联网巨头的监管一直都非常严苛，在适应监管节奏之后，美股的科技互联网巨头的经营业绩，大部分都重新回归正增长。因此，市场资金对中国科技互联网巨头的未来业绩增长的担忧，或许过于悲观。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159741":1,"BRK.B":1,"BRK.A":1,"00700":1,"AAPL":1,"TCEHY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151040574,"gmtCreate":1625060005498,"gmtModify":1625060005498,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447926573484248","authorIdStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>二次上市前股价应该都能保持强势吧？小鹏都实现了 nio加油","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>二次上市前股价应该都能保持强势吧？小鹏都实现了 nio加油","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$二次上市前股价应该都能保持强势吧？小鹏都实现了 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再对倒效果也打对折","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180096045","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":112850811,"gmtCreate":1622861802433,"gmtModify":1622861802433,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447926573484248","authorIdStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就是个有共识的资金盘 共识目前看挺强 但是崩起来分分钟","listText":"就是个有共识的资金盘 共识目前看挺强 但是崩起来分分钟","text":"就是个有共识的资金盘 共识目前看挺强 但是崩起来分分钟","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112850811","repostId":"2140158024","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":119218939,"gmtCreate":1622548712821,"gmtModify":1622548712821,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447926573484248","authorIdStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"卖铲子的发财","listText":"卖铲子的发财","text":"卖铲子的发财","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119218939","repostId":"1143289608","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143289608","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622542316,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143289608?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 18:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"嘉楠科技盘前涨超8%，一季度营收同比大增","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143289608","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"嘉楠科技：第一季度营收4.03亿元人民币，去年同期6827.3万元。一季度净利润120.4万元人民币，去年同期亏损3994.6万元。一季度每ADS盈利0.05元，去年同期亏损1.7元。一季度出售的总算","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>：第一季度营收4.03亿元人民币，去年同期6827.3万元。</p><p>一季度净利润120.4万元人民币，去年同期亏损3994.6万元。</p><p>一季度每ADS盈利0.05元，去年同期亏损1.7元。</p><p>一季度出售的总算力为200万Thash/s，较去年同期的90万Thash/s增长122.2%。</p><p>随着公司大规模生产新一代比特币挖矿机，预计盈利和交付量将较2021年第一季度大幅增长。由于今年5月底比特币价格波动，目前比特币价格趋势难以预测，无法提供财务指引。</p><p>截至发稿，嘉楠科技盘前大涨超8%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44731b7438c2173da12c4c693afb4566\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>嘉楠科技盘前涨超8%，一季度营收同比大增</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n嘉楠科技盘前涨超8%，一季度营收同比大增\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-01 18:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>：第一季度营收4.03亿元人民币，去年同期6827.3万元。</p><p>一季度净利润120.4万元人民币，去年同期亏损3994.6万元。</p><p>一季度每ADS盈利0.05元，去年同期亏损1.7元。</p><p>一季度出售的总算力为200万Thash/s，较去年同期的90万Thash/s增长122.2%。</p><p>随着公司大规模生产新一代比特币挖矿机，预计盈利和交付量将较2021年第一季度大幅增长。由于今年5月底比特币价格波动，目前比特币价格趋势难以预测，无法提供财务指引。</p><p>截至发稿，嘉楠科技盘前大涨超8%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44731b7438c2173da12c4c693afb4566\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b73656e72c20d8bad18906e9c15303","relate_stocks":{"CAN":"嘉楠科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143289608","content_text":"嘉楠科技：第一季度营收4.03亿元人民币，去年同期6827.3万元。一季度净利润120.4万元人民币，去年同期亏损3994.6万元。一季度每ADS盈利0.05元，去年同期亏损1.7元。一季度出售的总算力为200万Thash/s，较去年同期的90万Thash/s增长122.2%。随着公司大规模生产新一代比特币挖矿机，预计盈利和交付量将较2021年第一季度大幅增长。由于今年5月底比特币价格波动，目前比特币价格趋势难以预测，无法提供财务指引。截至发稿，嘉楠科技盘前大涨超8%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":138484196,"gmtCreate":1621954260815,"gmtModify":1621954260815,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447926573484248","authorIdStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ppt做的不错","listText":"ppt做的不错","text":"ppt做的不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138484196","repostId":"1199482586","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199482586","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621950223,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199482586?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-25 21:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Roblox深度报告：Metaverse第一股，元宇宙引领者","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199482586","media":" 风研海外","summary":"核心观点Roblox:游戏UGC平台的先驱者和领头人：全球最大的互动社区之一及大型多人游戏创作平台。通过游戏将全世界连接在一起，让任何人都能探索全球社区开发者建立的数千万个沉浸式 3D游戏，提供一个想","content":"<p><b>核心观点</b></p><p><b>Roblox:游戏UGC平台的先驱者和领头人</b>：全球最大的互动社区之一及大型多人游戏创作平台。通过游戏将全世界连接在一起，让任何人都能探索全球社区开发者建立的数千万个沉浸式 3D游戏，提供一个想象、创造以及与朋友同乐的空间。</p><p><b>高活跃度+高沉浸时长+稳定付费率提升</b>：Roblox如何做到？</p><p><b>UGC内容生态+社交属性构筑双飞轮效应</b></p><p>成长逻辑：</p><p><b>●DAU增长</b>，1）核心用户5-24岁渗透率持续增长；2）欧美以外的市场渗透率持续提升；<b>ARPU增长</b>，1）时间黏性+优质内容生态扩张驱动单用户收益提升；2）平均年龄提升提高付费水平</p><p><b>●DAU/流水预测：</b>保守预期下，25E DAU 8910万，同比增速15.3%，20-25E年CAGR 22.4%；25E 流水71.6亿美金，同比增长17.6%，20-25E年CAGR 30.6%；25E ABPDAU 80.3美金，同比增长2%。</p><p>第二增长曲线：</p><p>●1）<b>中国市场开发，25E有2.5亿-7.4亿Ebitda空间</b>。25E在核心用户TAM渗透率达到5%，对应1200万DAU，和$80.3 ABPDAU，对应9.7亿美金收入。</p><p>●2）<b>广告空间</b>，保守预期下，Roblox每小时广告收入$0.03，为社交媒体平均的1/5，对应<b>22亿广告收入，8.9亿广告Ebitda</b>；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为2289，增长幅度63.2%，利润率为24.4%。中性预期下，Roblox每小时广告收入$0.05，为社交媒体平均40%，对应<b>44亿广告收入，17.7亿广告Ebitda</b>；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为3175，增长幅度126.3%，利润率为33.9%。</p><p>●<b>以CPM验证广告空间</b>：保守预期下，Roblox CPM平均收费为$4.24，为社交媒体平均60% （考虑到使用时长和用户黏性，我们认为真实CPM收费会高于社交媒体平均），对应<b>21.7亿广告收入，8.7亿广告Ebitda</b>；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为22.7，增长幅度61.9%，利润率为24.2%。</p><p><b><i>风险提示：内容生态构筑风险；未来UGC游戏平台面临竞争风险；测算DAU或ABPDAU增长不及预期- 1）变现能力提升不及预期2）用户扩张不及预期；第二增长曲线不及预期– 1）中国市场发展缓慢2）广告商业化进度缓慢</i></b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa2c8053a9ecb678f3a58c338dc50b9\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1752f87b813ecdc11e16caede086abfb\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff2e3bca2bf7ef8f115bf1c93452047\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a014dbd744e7db4af8375a141182bb9f\" tg-width=\"1021\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox深度报告：Metaverse第一股，元宇宙引领者\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-25 21:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MOwtFbDJfT4yEVjyVQcvSQ><strong> 风研海外</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点Roblox:游戏UGC平台的先驱者和领头人：全球最大的互动社区之一及大型多人游戏创作平台。通过游戏将全世界连接在一起，让任何人都能探索全球社区开发者建立的数千万个沉浸式 3D游戏，提供一个想象、创造以及与朋友同乐的空间。高活跃度+高沉浸时长+稳定付费率提升：Roblox如何做到？UGC内容生态+社交属性构筑双飞轮效应成长逻辑：●DAU增长，1）核心用户5-24岁渗透率持续增长；2）欧美...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MOwtFbDJfT4yEVjyVQcvSQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140fc6c1463a498e65d516de4ff7fe68","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MOwtFbDJfT4yEVjyVQcvSQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199482586","content_text":"核心观点Roblox:游戏UGC平台的先驱者和领头人：全球最大的互动社区之一及大型多人游戏创作平台。通过游戏将全世界连接在一起，让任何人都能探索全球社区开发者建立的数千万个沉浸式 3D游戏，提供一个想象、创造以及与朋友同乐的空间。高活跃度+高沉浸时长+稳定付费率提升：Roblox如何做到？UGC内容生态+社交属性构筑双飞轮效应成长逻辑：●DAU增长，1）核心用户5-24岁渗透率持续增长；2）欧美以外的市场渗透率持续提升；ARPU增长，1）时间黏性+优质内容生态扩张驱动单用户收益提升；2）平均年龄提升提高付费水平●DAU/流水预测：保守预期下，25E DAU 8910万，同比增速15.3%，20-25E年CAGR 22.4%；25E 流水71.6亿美金，同比增长17.6%，20-25E年CAGR 30.6%；25E ABPDAU 80.3美金，同比增长2%。第二增长曲线：●1）中国市场开发，25E有2.5亿-7.4亿Ebitda空间。25E在核心用户TAM渗透率达到5%，对应1200万DAU，和$80.3 ABPDAU，对应9.7亿美金收入。●2）广告空间，保守预期下，Roblox每小时广告收入$0.03，为社交媒体平均的1/5，对应22亿广告收入，8.9亿广告Ebitda；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为2289，增长幅度63.2%，利润率为24.4%。中性预期下，Roblox每小时广告收入$0.05，为社交媒体平均40%，对应44亿广告收入，17.7亿广告Ebitda；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为3175，增长幅度126.3%，利润率为33.9%。●以CPM验证广告空间：保守预期下，Roblox CPM平均收费为$4.24，为社交媒体平均60% （考虑到使用时长和用户黏性，我们认为真实CPM收费会高于社交媒体平均），对应21.7亿广告收入，8.7亿广告Ebitda；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为22.7，增长幅度61.9%，利润率为24.2%。风险提示：内容生态构筑风险；未来UGC游戏平台面临竞争风险；测算DAU或ABPDAU增长不及预期- 1）变现能力提升不及预期2）用户扩张不及预期；第二增长曲线不及预期– 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其实没有最高只有更高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360920033","repostId":"1122334705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331249624,"gmtCreate":1609682447368,"gmtModify":1703739957645,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3447926573484248","authorIdStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"印度能排第三 这个预测就不能看了","listText":"印度能排第三 这个预测就不能看了","text":"印度能排第三 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