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。 ","listText":" 。 ","text":"。 ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590282582270984","repostId":"2654060392","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2654060392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1785109500,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2654060392?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-27 07:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"长鑫科技今日上市，市值有望冲击4万亿？市场能否保持平稳运行","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2654060392","media":"市场资讯","summary":"长鑫科技近日发布首次公开发行股票科创板上市公告书，公司股票将于7月27日在上海证券交易所科创板上市。作为年内A股最大的IPO，长鑫科技潜在打新收益成为市场焦点。 华西证券研究报告显示，长鑫科技上市将彻底改写A股半导体板块估值逻辑，填补A股DRAM制造标的空白，结束存储板块“只有设计、无制造龙头”的估值失衡。中性预期上市后稳定市值2万亿元至3万亿元，乐观情境甚至能看到4万亿元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688825\">长鑫科技</a>近日发布首次公开发行股票科创板上市公告书，公司股票将于7月27日在上海证券交易所科创板上市。作为年内A股最大的IPO，长鑫科技潜在打新收益成为市场焦点。</p><p><strong>中一签能赚多少钱？</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">华西证券</a>研究报告显示，长鑫科技上市将彻底改写A股半导体板块估值逻辑，填补A股DRAM制造标的空白，结束存储板块“只有设计、无制造龙头”的估值失衡。中性预期上市后稳定市值2万亿元至3万亿元，乐观情境甚至能看到4万亿元。</p><p>国投证券研究报告进一步设定了保守、中性、乐观、超乐观四种估值情景，对应长鑫科技估值为1万亿元、1.5万亿元、2.3万亿元和4.25万亿元。</p><p>基于上述预估的1万亿元-4万亿元市值区间，对应上市后首日涨幅落在70%-600%区间。对比8.66元的发行价，中一签的盈利空间大约在3000元至2.6万元之间。</p><p><strong>上半年有望抹平全部亏损</strong></p><p>长鑫科技是我国规模最大、技术最先进、布局最全的DRAM IDM（设计制造一体化）企业，在合肥、北京两地拥有3座12英寸DRAM晶圆厂。</p><p>基于出货量和销售额统计，长鑫科技在DRAM厂商中位居中国第一、全球第四，其主要客户包括阿里云、字节跳动、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">联想</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688036\">传音</a>、荣耀、OPPO、vivo等头部厂商。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>研报数据显示，长鑫2025年底月产能约28万-29万片。</p><p>此次募集资金将全额投向三大存储国产替代项目，分别为12英寸DRAM晶圆产线升级改造、HBM与车规存储技术升级、下一代存储前瞻技术研发，全面覆盖消费电子、AI算力服务器、车载高附加值存储赛道。</p><p>此前，长鑫科技于7月21日晚披露发行结果公告。公告显示，网上投资者放弃认购658.62万股，网下投资者放弃认购31567股，网上、网下投资者放弃认购股数全部由联席主承销商包销。</p><p>业绩方面，此前长鑫科技连续三年陷入亏损，2022年至2024年，归母净利润亏损分别为83.28亿、163.40亿、71.45亿，累计亏损超300亿元。2025年，长鑫科技扭亏为盈，归母净利润为18.75亿元。</p><p>最新数据显示，2026年第一季度，长鑫科技营收508亿元，同比增长719.13%；归母净利润247.62亿元，同比增长1688.30%。</p><p>根据长鑫科技预计，2026年1-6月营业收入1100亿元至1200亿元，同比增长612.53%至677.31%；归母净利润500亿元至570亿元，同比增长2244.03%至2544.19%，有望抹平长鑫科技成立以来的全部累计亏损。</p><p><strong>上市首日市场能否平稳运行？</strong></p><p>据Choice数据统计，回顾A股历史前十大IPO上市当日，上证指数有9次下跌，1次上涨，其中跌幅超过2%的有4天。</p><p>其中，最近几年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>的IPO和长鑫科技此次登陆A股具有一定的可比性。从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>当年在A股上市时的市场表现来看，短期对行情产生了一定的扰动。</p><p>在中芯国际2020年7月16日上市前，A股市场的一轮上涨已持续3个多月，直到中芯国际上市前夕才出现调整。科创50指数在中芯国际上市前一天大跌5.26%，上市当天进一步下跌8.8%。此次单日大跌不仅影响到科技股，以白酒龙头为代表的“茅股”群体也出现集体大跌。</p><p>不过，作为当时市场主线的“茅股”板块在短暂调整后选择继续上攻，直到2021年迎来“由牛转熊”的拐点。但科创50指数却在中芯国际上市前两天就见到了未来数年的顶部。</p><p>而在2007年11月5日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">中国石油</a>登陆A股当天，虽然其首日大涨163.24%。但当天市场整体却是另一番景象，上证指数当天下跌2.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600028\">中国石化</a>盘中一度接近跌停。但在此之前，市场总体维持了强势。</p><p>相比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00857\">中国石油</a>、中芯国际等A股其他大型IPO上市前市场的相对强势，此次长鑫科技登陆A股之前，市场已经历了为期近一个月的调整，科技股的跌势尤为明显。</p><p>也有分析认为，长鑫科技上市对市场的流动性影响和中国石油、中芯国际当时相比不具可比性。</p><p>2007年11月5日，中国石油上市当天成交金额达700亿元，换手率达到51.58%，占当天沪市成交额（1571亿元）的44.6%，超过了深市全天总成交额（390亿元）。</p><p>2020年7月16日，中芯国际A股上市当天成交金额达480亿元，换手率达53.08%，占沪市当天总成交额（6795亿元）的7.1%，占深市当天总成交额（8267亿元）的5.8%。但该成交额占到了当天科创板总成交额的比例却较高。</p><p>今年上半年，A股日均成交额已高达2.74万亿元，6月日均成交额更是达到3.13万亿元，对长鑫科技这样的大市值新股的承接力也已显著提高。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>长鑫科技今日上市，市值有望冲击4万亿？市场能否保持平稳运行</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n长鑫科技今日上市，市值有望冲击4万亿？市场能否保持平稳运行\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-27 07:45 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/newstock/zxdt/2026-07-27/doc-inikevrt0739399.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>长鑫科技近日发布首次公开发行股票科创板上市公告书，公司股票将于7月27日在上海证券交易所科创板上市。作为年内A股最大的IPO，长鑫科技潜在打新收益成为市场焦点。中一签能赚多少钱？华西证券研究报告显示，长鑫科技上市将彻底改写A股半导体板块估值逻辑，填补A股DRAM制造标的空白，结束存储板块“只有设计、无制造龙头”的估值失衡。中性预期上市后稳定市值2万亿元至3万亿元，乐观情境甚至能看到4万亿元。国投...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/newstock/zxdt/2026-07-27/doc-inikevrt0739399.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4697b2f4e47f9ce2ca8ebd53a899e570","relate_stocks":{"688825":"长鑫科技","IPOS":"Renaissance International IPO ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/newstock/zxdt/2026-07-27/doc-inikevrt0739399.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2654060392","content_text":"长鑫科技近日发布首次公开发行股票科创板上市公告书，公司股票将于7月27日在上海证券交易所科创板上市。作为年内A股最大的IPO，长鑫科技潜在打新收益成为市场焦点。中一签能赚多少钱？华西证券研究报告显示，长鑫科技上市将彻底改写A股半导体板块估值逻辑，填补A股DRAM制造标的空白，结束存储板块“只有设计、无制造龙头”的估值失衡。中性预期上市后稳定市值2万亿元至3万亿元，乐观情境甚至能看到4万亿元。国投证券研究报告进一步设定了保守、中性、乐观、超乐观四种估值情景，对应长鑫科技估值为1万亿元、1.5万亿元、2.3万亿元和4.25万亿元。基于上述预估的1万亿元-4万亿元市值区间，对应上市后首日涨幅落在70%-600%区间。对比8.66元的发行价，中一签的盈利空间大约在3000元至2.6万元之间。上半年有望抹平全部亏损长鑫科技是我国规模最大、技术最先进、布局最全的DRAM IDM（设计制造一体化）企业，在合肥、北京两地拥有3座12英寸DRAM晶圆厂。基于出货量和销售额统计，长鑫科技在DRAM厂商中位居中国第一、全球第四，其主要客户包括阿里云、字节跳动、腾讯、联想、小米、传音、荣耀、OPPO、vivo等头部厂商。国金证券研报数据显示，长鑫2025年底月产能约28万-29万片。此次募集资金将全额投向三大存储国产替代项目，分别为12英寸DRAM晶圆产线升级改造、HBM与车规存储技术升级、下一代存储前瞻技术研发，全面覆盖消费电子、AI算力服务器、车载高附加值存储赛道。此前，长鑫科技于7月21日晚披露发行结果公告。公告显示，网上投资者放弃认购658.62万股，网下投资者放弃认购31567股，网上、网下投资者放弃认购股数全部由联席主承销商包销。业绩方面，此前长鑫科技连续三年陷入亏损，2022年至2024年，归母净利润亏损分别为83.28亿、163.40亿、71.45亿，累计亏损超300亿元。2025年，长鑫科技扭亏为盈，归母净利润为18.75亿元。最新数据显示，2026年第一季度，长鑫科技营收508亿元，同比增长719.13%；归母净利润247.62亿元，同比增长1688.30%。根据长鑫科技预计，2026年1-6月营业收入1100亿元至1200亿元，同比增长612.53%至677.31%；归母净利润500亿元至570亿元，同比增长2244.03%至2544.19%，有望抹平长鑫科技成立以来的全部累计亏损。上市首日市场能否平稳运行？据Choice数据统计，回顾A股历史前十大IPO上市当日，上证指数有9次下跌，1次上涨，其中跌幅超过2%的有4天。其中，最近几年，中芯国际的IPO和长鑫科技此次登陆A股具有一定的可比性。从中芯国际当年在A股上市时的市场表现来看，短期对行情产生了一定的扰动。在中芯国际2020年7月16日上市前，A股市场的一轮上涨已持续3个多月，直到中芯国际上市前夕才出现调整。科创50指数在中芯国际上市前一天大跌5.26%，上市当天进一步下跌8.8%。此次单日大跌不仅影响到科技股，以白酒龙头为代表的“茅股”群体也出现集体大跌。不过，作为当时市场主线的“茅股”板块在短暂调整后选择继续上攻，直到2021年迎来“由牛转熊”的拐点。但科创50指数却在中芯国际上市前两天就见到了未来数年的顶部。而在2007年11月5日中国石油登陆A股当天，虽然其首日大涨163.24%。但当天市场整体却是另一番景象，上证指数当天下跌2.5%，中国石化盘中一度接近跌停。但在此之前，市场总体维持了强势。相比中国石油、中芯国际等A股其他大型IPO上市前市场的相对强势，此次长鑫科技登陆A股之前，市场已经历了为期近一个月的调整，科技股的跌势尤为明显。也有分析认为，长鑫科技上市对市场的流动性影响和中国石油、中芯国际当时相比不具可比性。2007年11月5日，中国石油上市当天成交金额达700亿元，换手率达到51.58%，占当天沪市成交额（1571亿元）的44.6%，超过了深市全天总成交额（390亿元）。2020年7月16日，中芯国际A股上市当天成交金额达480亿元，换手率达53.08%，占沪市当天总成交额（6795亿元）的7.1%，占深市当天总成交额（8267亿元）的5.8%。但该成交额占到了当天科创板总成交额的比例却较高。今年上半年，A股日均成交额已高达2.74万亿元，6月日均成交额更是达到3.13万亿元，对长鑫科技这样的大市值新股的承接力也已显著提高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688825":1.5,"IPOS":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191832430465216,"gmtCreate":1687843145667,"gmtModify":1687843499053,"author":{"id":"3451033950540393","authorId":"3451033950540393","name":"Ax100","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3451033950540393","idStr":"3451033950540393"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191832430465216","repostId":"2342531857","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":590282582270984,"gmtCreate":1785113502980,"gmtModify":1785114189801,"author":{"id":"3451033950540393","authorId":"3451033950540393","name":"Ax100","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451033950540393","authorIdStr":"3451033950540393"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":" 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