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2017 19 26
2017-09-15
炒股2个月,亏损30%,还有救吗?
目前已经实现亏损10%,还有浮亏20%求救!$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微博(WB)$ $好未来(TAL)$$易车网(BITA)$ $京东(JD)$ $网易(NTES)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $陌陌(MOMO)$ $迅雷(XNET)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $58同城(WUBA)$$腾讯控股(00700)$ $融创中国(01918)$ $中国恒大(03333)$ $碧桂园(02007)$ $汽车之家(ATHM)$ $纳指ETF(QQQ)$
炒股2个月,亏损30%,还有救吗?
2017 19 26
2022-05-08
纳斯达克千年大顶?
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
的历史最高收盘价,即“千年大顶”,暂时定格在了2021年11月19日周五16057.44点,这也是纳指历史上唯一一次收盘高于16000点,也许正因为物极必反,下一个周一11月22日,纳指便掉头向下,开始了至今长达5个多月,甚至可能会持续更久的滚滚大熊市。为什么是这一天?是什么导致十几年的美股大牛市戛然而止?导火索是什么?答:11月22日,美股开盘时分,一则鲍威尔连任的BREAKING NEWS传遍华尔街和全世界。
$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$
火箭般飙升,但在开盘45分钟之后,便一头栽下去了,从此纳指的命运彻底转变了……鸽王连任不是好事吗?为何市场不买账?仅仅“高兴”了45分钟就“集体叛变”了?前因后果说来很复杂,但可以简单总结一下:在此之前,通胀已经远高于2%的目标,但鲍威尔大概是为了顺利连任,每次都说“通胀是暂时的”,市场便仍然很勉强的继续看涨,以至于本来9月7日就应该已经见顶了的纳指,硬是“又续了一命”,再拉了一波至11月19日,即白宫宣布新的美联储主席的前一天;而此时11月的CPI通胀已飙升至6.2%,市场很难再相信鲍威尔的“通胀暂时论”,也更有理由担心鲍威尔会因为“位子稳了”而开始大变脸,于是在一致性预期之下,“卖事实”,纳指开始崩盘了。而鲍威尔也真的开始转变态度了,缩水、加息、缩表,一件件的提上了日程表。正印证了那句“我预期了你的预期”,然后“你按照我的预期执行”?有点意思。人总是有私心的,但公道自在人心。在22Q1财报季初期,纳指快速下跌至13000点附近。再叠加俄
纳斯达克千年大顶?
2017 19 26
2021-01-31
$游戏驿站(GME)$
$黑莓(BB)$
$AMC院线(AMC)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
光是GME的call就有120亿,而盈透的现金只有90亿。如果天天像这么拉升,那些做空的机构基金、以及罗宾汉盈透这样的券商,都有倒闭的风险,而且即使倒闭了也得付钱,因为期权是合约,必须履行,机构基金们没钱付,券商就得兜底掏钱,所以券商们不得不对散户限购,机构们必须靠抛售其它股票来补充保证金。股市持续大跌,流动性危机,束手无策?浓浓的股灾也许即将来临……
2017 19 26
2017-08-29
在股市里挣到钱了的,举个手看一下
炒股1个多月以来,曾经血亏20个点,至今徘徊在不赚不亏的样子。炒股真的很累,不仅消耗时间精力,而且到处都是坑,错一步都会错很远。#中概股血崩#$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微博(WB)$ $好未来(TAL)$$易车网(BITA)$ $京东(JD)$ $网易(NTES)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $陌陌(MOMO)$ $迅雷(XNET)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $58同城(WUBA)$
在股市里挣到钱了的,举个手看一下
2017 19 26
2022-06-06
中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点
$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$
$恒生指数(HSI)$
$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
2017 19 26
2022-02-18
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
2021年11月22日,是纳斯达克的千年大顶,为什么是这一天?因为这一天发生了一件大事,鲍威尔成功连任了美联储主席,而他对于通胀的态度也从此发生了180度大转弯,之前每天闭着眼睛喊“通胀是暂时的”,之后每天恶狠狠的叫嚣“7月之前要加息100点,加息2%才能真正抑制这40年来最高的通胀”而股市的大幅下跌也是必然会发生的,只是早晚的问题,0利率持续了接近2年,股市也狂飙了接近2年,总有曲终人散的时候,当初涨的有多疯狂,如今今后就会跌的多疯狂,莫怪拔D无情问题是:当初为何一步就到了0利率为什么不克制一下?为何不早一些缩债加息缩表否则何至于如今这40年来最高的通胀?股市也就不会如此的狂涨狂跌,而成长股更是已经跌回了0利率之前的水平,过山车而很多人,20年大赚,21又亏回去了,22年恐怕是要倒亏了,图啥?黄粱美梦一场空,空悲切!
$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
2017 19 26
2021-08-13
$AMD(AMD)$
一般的,正常的中大型股票,当股价极速大幅飙升之后,比如去年8月底和今年2月中旬,会有较长的回落震荡期,2~4周很正常,主力不可能很快又拉上去帮你解套的,但一般中间会有所反弹,除了这种小庄股小meme股按摩店是不是小庄股?恐怕大家深有体会按摩店是不是meme股?GME、AMC感受过吧?涨的时候一阵风,跌的时候一路阴跌到忍无可忍,按摩店是不是也符合这种特征?连个反弹都不弹一下珍爱生命远离按摩店,尤其不要做短期的期权
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$美光科技(MU)$
$英特尔(INTC)$
2017 19 26
2021-04-30
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
期权IV太高了!高的吓人。杀无赦~~
$苹果(AAPL)$
$微软(MSFT)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
2017 19 26
2017-08-24
为什么我至今还在认为中概股要跌?
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微博(WB)$ $好未来(TAL)$ $易车网(BITA)$ 好像我真的错了,我这么穷是有道理的!
为什么我至今还在认为中概股要跌?
2017 19 26
2023-07-06
$HSI(HSI)$
谈论窝轮的所谓大V,全部拉黑就对了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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总之就是顺势而为,不要买在下跌的开始、上涨的末尾、高位颓势,可以买在下跌的末尾、上涨的开始中间段、强势拉升突破、低位弱势转强势,最好是45-60分位偏右侧交易","images":[],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504926485348912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502057113354976,"gmtCreate":1763591246873,"gmtModify":1763591249506,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 盘前涨了2%,盘后直逼200 所以说,市场很多时候并不总是对的,最近美股乱跌了这么多天,太荒唐了, 但是如果不按市场来,反而容易亏钱,所以是真的没有天理、没有规则,纯自由搏击 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2512(NQmain)$ </a> <a 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$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1b669ec01ce753db95d93c88178586","width":"1080","height":"2390"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501729523519616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500292572156008,"gmtCreate":1763182583580,"gmtModify":1763182585892,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 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$快手-W(01024)$ 看看这些都是什么玩意儿,中丐就是屎中屎,其本色几乎永远无法改变,不要拿自己的钱去搏一个很小概率的事情,你极大概率是不仅浪费钱,还浪费时间精力感情。。。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbf3ac54b00d055d6d6f454f83e3ad56","width":"1080","height":"2558"}],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500293888835664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":497174394655152,"gmtCreate":1762403158485,"gmtModify":1762403161336,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 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https://x.com/bbjk666/status/1945437917306057184","images":[],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/466334804869384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":431317824348576,"gmtCreate":1746297475759,"gmtModify":1746297477323,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 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21:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【全程回顾】巴菲特:年底卸任伯克希尔CEO!坚定持有日股,淡定看美股波动","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184806579","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"巴菲特在伯克希尔・哈撒韦股东大会上表示,平衡的贸易对世界有益。毫无疑问,贸易可能成为一种战争行为。美国应该寻求与其他国家进行贸易,贸易不应该成为武器。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间5月3日,一年一度的投资界“春晚”——伯克希尔・哈撒韦股东大会在美国奥马哈市举行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在今年的股东大会上,巴菲特屡次就特朗普政府的政策与财政问题表达担忧,明确强调贸易不应作为武器。此外,他还针对伯克希尔的巨额现金储备,以及近期美股市场波动、海外投资、人生哲学、AI、自动驾驶、保险业务等一系列话题发表见解。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">令全球投资者感到意外的是,巴菲特在股东大会最后宣布,他已经决定将在周日的董事会上,提议在年底前正式将伯克希尔CEO职务交给接班人格雷格·阿贝尔。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>以下为全程回顾(北京时间):</strong></p><p><strong>02:00 在巴菲特的退休宣言后,问答环节正式结束,全场起立鼓掌向他致敬。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e2a756af668cad00b0c2a627f68b791\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"562\"/></p><p><strong>01:55</strong> <strong>【巴菲特:我的时间已经到了,阿贝尔将在年底上任CEO】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>巴菲特表示,明天伯克希尔董事会将开会,有一项目前只有我和我的孩子们(也是公司董事)知道的提议。他将建议阿贝尔到年底时出任伯克希尔CEO。他“仍会留在公司”提供帮助,但“最终决定权”将属于阿贝尔。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>巴菲特表示,阿贝尔对此并不知情,除了他的子女外,其他董事会成员也都不知情。</strong></p><p><strong>01:45 【如何评价伯克希尔仍在大量使用煤炭发电?】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在股东提问中,阿贝尔遭到批评称,伯克希尔能源公司仍在大量使用煤炭发电,同时在转型新能源方面表现不佳。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿贝尔表示,伯克希尔能源是政策的执行者,在新能源政策方面需要与每个州进行洽谈,使用哪种能源很大程度上取决于各个州的政策,这不是伯克希尔能够决定的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿贝尔同时讲述了2000年代初爱荷华州电力结构变化的轶事。他强调在州立法者的支持下伯克希尔投资了首个一个大型风电项目,同时淘汰了燃煤机组。他也补充道,煤炭机组对维持电力供应稳定仍不可或缺。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01:35</strong> <strong>巴菲特:我一直认为,政治人物如果有钱但没有信用,那对我来说是非常负面的信号。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01:30</strong> <strong>【巴菲特警告:美国经济的“圣殿”可能被“赌场”取代】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,美国资本主义取得了前所未有的成功。但是……这座宏伟的‘圣殿’催生了世界上前所未有的经济,然后又建了一座巨大的赌场。所以,你就有了赌场。在赌场里,每个人都玩得很开心,有很多钱在交易等等……未来100年,美国必须确保圣殿不会被赌场取代,这一点非常重要。因为人们真的很喜欢去赌场。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01:25</strong> <strong>【巴菲特评“政府效率部”】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,官僚主义非常“具有传染性”,而且确实没有什么能制约它。如何控制政府收支平衡的问题从未真正得到解决,这个问题曾重创过许多文明。对于美国庞大的财政赤字,巴菲特表示这样的事情是不可持续的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他指出,美国长期以来没有真正解决财政赤字的问题,这从来都不是一个被彻底解决的议题。美国的财政赤字已经不是可持续的模式,两年也好,二十年也罢,我们不能永远依赖这种不可持续的机制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特同时表示,自己不想接手平衡美国财政收支的工作,但 “削减成本的工作应当完成”。现场响起掌声一片。</p><p><strong>01:10 【如何评价科技巨头正在大举投资AI】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,不进行投资就能赚钱,总是要比投入重金赚大钱更好。以可口可乐为例,下游的灌瓶厂需要大量的资本,但对于卖糖浆的可口可乐公司而言,并不需要太多的资本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,未来观察“七巨头”公司会变得多么资本密集将非常有趣。在这个国家,很多资管行业的人通过关注他人如何投入资本而变得非常富有。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01:00 对于是否考虑收购子公司BHE剩余股份的提问,巴菲特表示,由于“社会因素”,公用事业业务已不如几年前景气。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:55 【巴菲特保证“不会用股东的钱做傻事”】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特向股东保证,伯克希尔不会将他们的钱用于公司认为“愚蠢”的事情,如果伯克希尔真的这么做了,股东们“就应该把我们赶走”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还打趣称:“用别人的钱做傻事比用自己的钱更容易。这是政府普遍存在的问题之一。我们不想把这种问题带给私营企业。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:45 【巴菲特:美国需要政府与产业在能源领域合作】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特谈论美国能源行业的投资机会时表示:“处理这个问题的方法是政府和私营企业进行某种形式的合作,就像战争时期那样。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还谈到伯克希尔公司可以在这其中提供帮助:“我们确实有资本,而且我们实际上还掌握了一些罕见的知识”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:35 【巴菲特:相对于营收报告 我更爱看资产负债表】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示:“我花在查看资产负债表上的时间比查看营收报告的时间还多。华尔街其实不太关注资产负债表,但我喜欢先查看八年或十年的资产负债表,然后再查看营收报告,因为有些东西在资产负债表上更难隐藏或作弊。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:30 【如何才能到伯克希尔工作】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于提问“未来如何才能进入伯克希尔上班”,巴菲特表示,未来的问题你得去问阿贝尔。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿尔贝表示:“勤奋工作和乐于奉献的精神会让你走得更远,期待你加入伯克希尔的那一天。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特随后补充道:“保持强烈的好奇心,多读书。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:20 【阿贝尔谈接手后如何进行资本配置】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿贝尔表示,稳固的资产负债表“是一项巨大的资产”,伯克希尔将择时进行部署。他表示,公司将继续依靠管理人员来评估风险,并依靠公司自身来产生现金流,“我们永远不会依赖银行或其他任何一方来获得伯克希尔的成功。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿贝尔强调,伯克希尔在管理风险、监督运营业务方面将采用与过去60年来完全相同的理念。未来收购公司或股票的理念也将保持不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:01 【巴菲特向投资者推荐电影《成为凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆》】</strong></p><p>巴菲特向投资者推荐电影,是一部讲述《华盛顿邮报》出版人凯萨琳·格雷厄姆的纪录片《成为凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆》。巴菲特因与格雷厄姆的友谊及在《华盛顿邮报》董事会的角色而出现在这部影片中。在格雷厄姆执掌期间,这份报纸报道了水门事件,最终导致总统理查德·尼克松辞职。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc1a3c5667556640242e07cc3aeebd38\" title=\"image\" tg-width=\"1602\" tg-height=\"676\"/><span>image</span></p><p>5月4日 <strong>00:00</strong> <strong>巴菲特和阿贝尔重回舞台,下半场的问答开始,预期将持续到凌晨2时左右。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ea1db3a3481869797bc2a0f6709953\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"532\"/></p><p><strong>23:30 【问答环节上半场结束 下半场将于北京时间5月4日00:00开始】</strong></p><p><strong>23:25 巴菲特:伯克希尔持有的现金和国库券,比我期望的要多得多。</strong></p><p><strong>23:15 【贾恩谈自动驾驶技术将如何影响保险业】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">贾恩表示,毫无疑问,一旦自动驾驶汽车成为现实,汽车保险将发生“巨大”变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“大多数买卖的保险都与驾驶员失误有关,包括失误发生的频率、严重程度,以及相应的保费。如果这些新型自动驾驶汽车更加安全,事故发生率更低,那么对这类保险的需求就会减少,相反,它将被产品责任所取代。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示:“GEICO 和其他公司都在为这一转变做好准备,我们将从为操作员错误提供保险转向为产品错误提供保护。”</p><p><strong>23:14【巴菲特谈如何面对挫折】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一位来自上海的伯克希尔股东询问巴菲特如何应对人生中的挫折。巴菲特表示:每个人都会遇到挫折,这就是人生的一部分。有的人会很幸运,有的人会很倒霉。从中国历史来看,这位投资者真是活在了一个好时代。与生在一百年前、一千年前的人相比,这也是一种幸运。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于挫折,巴菲特表示,他会专注于生活中美好的事物,而非不幸之事。生活可以很精彩,尽管其中也可能遭遇重大挫折。</p><p><strong>23:05 【巴菲特谈市场波动:过去几十天的下跌根本不算什么,应改变投资理念】</strong></p><p>巴菲特在谈到与1929年股市崩盘等时期相比当前股市的波动时表示:“这算不上是大幅波动。”自从收购伯克希尔后,公司股价曾经发生过3次短时间里50%以上的大跌,而且公司当时的基本面没有问题。与历史上的大崩盘相比,过去几十天的下跌根本不算什么。给那些担心自己的投资组合会周期性波动的人的一些建议是:他们应该改变自己的投资理念,并去适应这个世界 —— 世界是不会来适应他们的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>23:00【巴菲特谈年青投资者应如何塑造自己的投资理念】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:你与谁交往极其重要。你要与比你优秀的人相处,最终你会朝着你所交往的人的方向发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:世界不会适应你——你必须去适应它。世界会犯大错,系统越复杂,意外就越多。这就是股市的由来。如果你害怕下跌,又为上涨而兴奋,那只是人类的情感——但当你投资时,你需要将这些情绪抛在脑后</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>22:48【贾恩:伯克希尔不想在寿险领域与私募股权公司竞争】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,很多企业都想复制伯克希尔模式,但不愿让CEO控制公司运营的所有资金。巴菲特说:“他们的受托责任感有些不同,如果行不通,他们就会转向其他事情。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">贾恩表示,伯克希尔不想在寿险领域与私募股权公司竞争。私募公司在经济向好时承担着杠杆和信用风险,尤其是在人寿保险领域。只要经济表现良好且信用利差较低,他们就能赚大钱,但监管机构可能会对保险机构的冒险行为感到恼火。最终可能会以悲剧收场。</p><p><strong>22:30 【巴菲特:不会随意投资在海外国家】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:不会随意投资在海外国家,除非有极好的机会。在蒙古没有投资的计划。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>22:20 【巴菲特:美国的财政问题并非美国独有的问题】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特被问及是否采取措施应对美元走弱时表示,伯克希尔几乎不会因为要使得一个季度或一年的财报更好看去做任何事情。他也强调,不会想持有任何他们认为会贬得一文不值的货币资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特同时表示,美国的财政问题令他害怕,但这也不是美国独有的问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于增持日元资产,他表示日本的情况不一样,现在借日元的成本也非常低。</p><p><strong>22:15【巴菲特透露伯克希尔近期差点敲定一笔百亿美元交易】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特透露,不久前“差点就花掉了100 亿美元”,但最终没有动手。他也强调:“我的意思是,当遇到我们理解、认为有价值且合理的投资机会时,做这些决定并不困难。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>22:10【巴菲特:我不会为美国的现状感到沮丧】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特被问道:“长期以来,你一直坚信美国的韧性,而历史也证明你是正确的。但今天,美国正经历一些巨大的变化,一些投资者也对“美国例外论”产生了质疑。在你看来,我们的投资者是对美国过度悲观了吗?”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:美国正在经历巨大和革命性的变化。但是回望过去百年,我们一直处在变化中,我们一直在批评各种事物……我认为自己出生在美国非常幸运,自上世纪30年代我出生以来,一切都发生了巨大改变。我们经历了大萧条,我们经历了世界大战,所以我不会为我们的现状感到沮丧,也不认为当前的问题会持续很久。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21: 55【关于投资时的耐心】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示:“当良机出现时,那时你不该保持耐心。你要耐心等待那个难得的来电时机...对于合情合理的交易,行动时不该犹豫;而对于那些空谈永远不会发生之事的人,更无需浪费时间。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:51 【阿吉特·贾恩:AI是一项改变游戏规则的工具】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在被问及人工智能对保险业务的影响时,伯克希尔保险业务主管阿吉特·贾恩首次发言。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示,人工智能将成为保险和风险定价领域的真正颠覆者。不过伯克希尔在保险领域的AI应用上将采取“观望”态度,尚未投入大量精力或资金把握这一机遇。贾恩同时指出,很多人在人工智能方面“最终是在花费巨额资金追逐下一个时尚潮流”,伯克希尔不擅长在下一个时尚事物上成为先行者。</p><p><strong>21:55 【巴菲特:房地产交易谈判比股票困难得多】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特被问及为何不买房: “就房地产而言,交易谈判比股票困难得多,需要花费大量时间,涉及多方。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:49 【巴菲特:AI是一项改变游戏规则的工具】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:AI是一项改变游戏规则的工具。我们传统上不是抢先去采用,还没有在AI投入很多精力。一旦准备好,就会投入。AI的事应由阿吉特·贾恩来决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在被问及人工智能对保险业务的影响时,阿吉特·贾恩首次发言。他表示,人工智能将成为保险和风险定价领域的真正颠覆者。不过伯克希尔在保险领域的AI应用上将采取“观望”态度,尚未投入大量精力或资金把握这一机遇。贾恩同时指出,很多人在人工智能方面“最终是在花费巨额资金追逐下一个时尚潮流”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:44【巴菲特:规模是伯克希尔业绩的敌人】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:“伯克希尔公司变得这么大真是太糟糕了。规模是伯克希尔业绩的敌人,我不知道有什么好办法来解决这个问题,这不是一个不可能解决的问题。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:40【巴菲特谈巨额现金储备】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:我们现金数量确实是相当高,但好的机会不会每一天都出现。不正确或不正当的投资,反而会损害投资人的利益。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,他一直在寻找投资机会,并希望减少手头现金——<strong>可能降至500亿美元</strong>。他说:“事情偶尔会变得极具吸引力。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:重大交易“极不可能”明天就发生,但在五年内则并非如此。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:25 【伯克希尔可能永远持有日本五大商社股票】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:未来长时间内不会出售手中的日本五大商社股票,这些公司经营纪录非常优秀。伯克希尔还会扩大与日本公司的联系,大约在日本投资了200亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特指定接班人格雷格·阿贝尔表示,<strong>设想持有日本贸易公司股票至少50年,或永远持有</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:20 【巴菲特:贸易不应该被用作武器】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特被问及本次大会的第一个问题:“在2003年时,你曾在《财富》发表文章称,应该限制贸易逆差。而今年3月,你却把特朗普发起的关税战称为一场‘经济战争’。你对贸易壁垒的观点改变了吗?”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示:“我的意思是,在美国,我们应该寻求与世界其他国家进行贸易,我们应该做我们最擅长的事情……贸易不应该成为武器。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:08 【巴菲特点名感谢蒂姆·库克 库克起身致意】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示:“我有点不好意思地说,蒂姆·库克为伯克希尔赚的钱比我为伯克希尔哈撒韦赚的钱多得多。史蒂夫·乔布斯做了只有他才能做的事情,让苹果走上了今天的道路,尽管乔布斯不幸英年早逝,但他做了正确的决定,选择了库克来接任,事实证明库克做得很好。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果CEO蒂姆·库克也出席了本场伯克希尔股东大会,并在巴菲特提及他时起身挥手致意。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00f7b8e268c9d038030b449e8112ef66\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:02 【巴菲特:我想这会是我参加过的最好的一次年会】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:“这是我参加的第60次年会,这是规模最大的一次,我想也会是最好的一次……我们没法知道有多少人今天在关注这场大会。我们现场有很多人,同时还有很多人在全球收听这场大会。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:00 【伯克希尔股东大会问答环节正式开始】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特与其接班人阿贝尔,以及保险业务主管阿吉特·贾恩登台,准备回答投资者们的一系列问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d64b875b951f1013e5c60de00d1cc3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">20:58 美国前国务卿希拉里·克林顿出现在大会现场。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6373df428bb8952ecfef79b9a8afbcd8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">20:50 今年即将95岁高龄的巴菲特已经准备好登台。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/047954b7fadd0321a687fc8958ee04ce\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>20:00 【伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司发布第一季度财报】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示,公司第一季度营运收益为96.4亿美元,去年同期112亿美元,同比下跌14%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔在第一季度末的现金储备升至3477亿美元,再创历史新高,显示公司正持续出售股票,但在寻找可投资机会方面面临困难。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合投资亏损后,第一季度净利润46.03亿美元,上年同期盈利127.02亿美元。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【全程回顾】巴菲特:年底卸任伯克希尔CEO!坚定持有日股,淡定看美股波动</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n【全程回顾】巴菲特:年底卸任伯克希尔CEO!坚定持有日股,淡定看美股波动\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-03 21:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间5月3日,一年一度的投资界“春晚”——伯克希尔・哈撒韦股东大会在美国奥马哈市举行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在今年的股东大会上,巴菲特屡次就特朗普政府的政策与财政问题表达担忧,明确强调贸易不应作为武器。此外,他还针对伯克希尔的巨额现金储备,以及近期美股市场波动、海外投资、人生哲学、AI、自动驾驶、保险业务等一系列话题发表见解。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">令全球投资者感到意外的是,巴菲特在股东大会最后宣布,他已经决定将在周日的董事会上,提议在年底前正式将伯克希尔CEO职务交给接班人格雷格·阿贝尔。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>以下为全程回顾(北京时间):</strong></p><p><strong>02:00 在巴菲特的退休宣言后,问答环节正式结束,全场起立鼓掌向他致敬。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e2a756af668cad00b0c2a627f68b791\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"562\"/></p><p><strong>01:55</strong> <strong>【巴菲特:我的时间已经到了,阿贝尔将在年底上任CEO】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>巴菲特表示,明天伯克希尔董事会将开会,有一项目前只有我和我的孩子们(也是公司董事)知道的提议。他将建议阿贝尔到年底时出任伯克希尔CEO。他“仍会留在公司”提供帮助,但“最终决定权”将属于阿贝尔。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>巴菲特表示,阿贝尔对此并不知情,除了他的子女外,其他董事会成员也都不知情。</strong></p><p><strong>01:45 【如何评价伯克希尔仍在大量使用煤炭发电?】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在股东提问中,阿贝尔遭到批评称,伯克希尔能源公司仍在大量使用煤炭发电,同时在转型新能源方面表现不佳。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿贝尔表示,伯克希尔能源是政策的执行者,在新能源政策方面需要与每个州进行洽谈,使用哪种能源很大程度上取决于各个州的政策,这不是伯克希尔能够决定的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿贝尔同时讲述了2000年代初爱荷华州电力结构变化的轶事。他强调在州立法者的支持下伯克希尔投资了首个一个大型风电项目,同时淘汰了燃煤机组。他也补充道,煤炭机组对维持电力供应稳定仍不可或缺。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01:35</strong> <strong>巴菲特:我一直认为,政治人物如果有钱但没有信用,那对我来说是非常负面的信号。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01:30</strong> <strong>【巴菲特警告:美国经济的“圣殿”可能被“赌场”取代】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,美国资本主义取得了前所未有的成功。但是……这座宏伟的‘圣殿’催生了世界上前所未有的经济,然后又建了一座巨大的赌场。所以,你就有了赌场。在赌场里,每个人都玩得很开心,有很多钱在交易等等……未来100年,美国必须确保圣殿不会被赌场取代,这一点非常重要。因为人们真的很喜欢去赌场。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01:25</strong> <strong>【巴菲特评“政府效率部”】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,官僚主义非常“具有传染性”,而且确实没有什么能制约它。如何控制政府收支平衡的问题从未真正得到解决,这个问题曾重创过许多文明。对于美国庞大的财政赤字,巴菲特表示这样的事情是不可持续的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他指出,美国长期以来没有真正解决财政赤字的问题,这从来都不是一个被彻底解决的议题。美国的财政赤字已经不是可持续的模式,两年也好,二十年也罢,我们不能永远依赖这种不可持续的机制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特同时表示,自己不想接手平衡美国财政收支的工作,但 “削减成本的工作应当完成”。现场响起掌声一片。</p><p><strong>01:10 【如何评价科技巨头正在大举投资AI】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,不进行投资就能赚钱,总是要比投入重金赚大钱更好。以可口可乐为例,下游的灌瓶厂需要大量的资本,但对于卖糖浆的可口可乐公司而言,并不需要太多的资本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,未来观察“七巨头”公司会变得多么资本密集将非常有趣。在这个国家,很多资管行业的人通过关注他人如何投入资本而变得非常富有。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01:00 对于是否考虑收购子公司BHE剩余股份的提问,巴菲特表示,由于“社会因素”,公用事业业务已不如几年前景气。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:55 【巴菲特保证“不会用股东的钱做傻事”】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特向股东保证,伯克希尔不会将他们的钱用于公司认为“愚蠢”的事情,如果伯克希尔真的这么做了,股东们“就应该把我们赶走”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还打趣称:“用别人的钱做傻事比用自己的钱更容易。这是政府普遍存在的问题之一。我们不想把这种问题带给私营企业。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:45 【巴菲特:美国需要政府与产业在能源领域合作】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特谈论美国能源行业的投资机会时表示:“处理这个问题的方法是政府和私营企业进行某种形式的合作,就像战争时期那样。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还谈到伯克希尔公司可以在这其中提供帮助:“我们确实有资本,而且我们实际上还掌握了一些罕见的知识”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:35 【巴菲特:相对于营收报告 我更爱看资产负债表】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示:“我花在查看资产负债表上的时间比查看营收报告的时间还多。华尔街其实不太关注资产负债表,但我喜欢先查看八年或十年的资产负债表,然后再查看营收报告,因为有些东西在资产负债表上更难隐藏或作弊。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:30 【如何才能到伯克希尔工作】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于提问“未来如何才能进入伯克希尔上班”,巴菲特表示,未来的问题你得去问阿贝尔。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿尔贝表示:“勤奋工作和乐于奉献的精神会让你走得更远,期待你加入伯克希尔的那一天。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特随后补充道:“保持强烈的好奇心,多读书。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:20 【阿贝尔谈接手后如何进行资本配置】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿贝尔表示,稳固的资产负债表“是一项巨大的资产”,伯克希尔将择时进行部署。他表示,公司将继续依靠管理人员来评估风险,并依靠公司自身来产生现金流,“我们永远不会依赖银行或其他任何一方来获得伯克希尔的成功。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿贝尔强调,伯克希尔在管理风险、监督运营业务方面将采用与过去60年来完全相同的理念。未来收购公司或股票的理念也将保持不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>00:01 【巴菲特向投资者推荐电影《成为凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆》】</strong></p><p>巴菲特向投资者推荐电影,是一部讲述《华盛顿邮报》出版人凯萨琳·格雷厄姆的纪录片《成为凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆》。巴菲特因与格雷厄姆的友谊及在《华盛顿邮报》董事会的角色而出现在这部影片中。在格雷厄姆执掌期间,这份报纸报道了水门事件,最终导致总统理查德·尼克松辞职。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc1a3c5667556640242e07cc3aeebd38\" title=\"image\" tg-width=\"1602\" tg-height=\"676\"/><span>image</span></p><p>5月4日 <strong>00:00</strong> <strong>巴菲特和阿贝尔重回舞台,下半场的问答开始,预期将持续到凌晨2时左右。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ea1db3a3481869797bc2a0f6709953\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"532\"/></p><p><strong>23:30 【问答环节上半场结束 下半场将于北京时间5月4日00:00开始】</strong></p><p><strong>23:25 巴菲特:伯克希尔持有的现金和国库券,比我期望的要多得多。</strong></p><p><strong>23:15 【贾恩谈自动驾驶技术将如何影响保险业】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">贾恩表示,毫无疑问,一旦自动驾驶汽车成为现实,汽车保险将发生“巨大”变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“大多数买卖的保险都与驾驶员失误有关,包括失误发生的频率、严重程度,以及相应的保费。如果这些新型自动驾驶汽车更加安全,事故发生率更低,那么对这类保险的需求就会减少,相反,它将被产品责任所取代。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示:“GEICO 和其他公司都在为这一转变做好准备,我们将从为操作员错误提供保险转向为产品错误提供保护。”</p><p><strong>23:14【巴菲特谈如何面对挫折】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一位来自上海的伯克希尔股东询问巴菲特如何应对人生中的挫折。巴菲特表示:每个人都会遇到挫折,这就是人生的一部分。有的人会很幸运,有的人会很倒霉。从中国历史来看,这位投资者真是活在了一个好时代。与生在一百年前、一千年前的人相比,这也是一种幸运。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于挫折,巴菲特表示,他会专注于生活中美好的事物,而非不幸之事。生活可以很精彩,尽管其中也可能遭遇重大挫折。</p><p><strong>23:05 【巴菲特谈市场波动:过去几十天的下跌根本不算什么,应改变投资理念】</strong></p><p>巴菲特在谈到与1929年股市崩盘等时期相比当前股市的波动时表示:“这算不上是大幅波动。”自从收购伯克希尔后,公司股价曾经发生过3次短时间里50%以上的大跌,而且公司当时的基本面没有问题。与历史上的大崩盘相比,过去几十天的下跌根本不算什么。给那些担心自己的投资组合会周期性波动的人的一些建议是:他们应该改变自己的投资理念,并去适应这个世界 —— 世界是不会来适应他们的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>23:00【巴菲特谈年青投资者应如何塑造自己的投资理念】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:你与谁交往极其重要。你要与比你优秀的人相处,最终你会朝着你所交往的人的方向发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:世界不会适应你——你必须去适应它。世界会犯大错,系统越复杂,意外就越多。这就是股市的由来。如果你害怕下跌,又为上涨而兴奋,那只是人类的情感——但当你投资时,你需要将这些情绪抛在脑后</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>22:48【贾恩:伯克希尔不想在寿险领域与私募股权公司竞争】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,很多企业都想复制伯克希尔模式,但不愿让CEO控制公司运营的所有资金。巴菲特说:“他们的受托责任感有些不同,如果行不通,他们就会转向其他事情。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">贾恩表示,伯克希尔不想在寿险领域与私募股权公司竞争。私募公司在经济向好时承担着杠杆和信用风险,尤其是在人寿保险领域。只要经济表现良好且信用利差较低,他们就能赚大钱,但监管机构可能会对保险机构的冒险行为感到恼火。最终可能会以悲剧收场。</p><p><strong>22:30 【巴菲特:不会随意投资在海外国家】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:不会随意投资在海外国家,除非有极好的机会。在蒙古没有投资的计划。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>22:20 【巴菲特:美国的财政问题并非美国独有的问题】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特被问及是否采取措施应对美元走弱时表示,伯克希尔几乎不会因为要使得一个季度或一年的财报更好看去做任何事情。他也强调,不会想持有任何他们认为会贬得一文不值的货币资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特同时表示,美国的财政问题令他害怕,但这也不是美国独有的问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于增持日元资产,他表示日本的情况不一样,现在借日元的成本也非常低。</p><p><strong>22:15【巴菲特透露伯克希尔近期差点敲定一笔百亿美元交易】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特透露,不久前“差点就花掉了100 亿美元”,但最终没有动手。他也强调:“我的意思是,当遇到我们理解、认为有价值且合理的投资机会时,做这些决定并不困难。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>22:10【巴菲特:我不会为美国的现状感到沮丧】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特被问道:“长期以来,你一直坚信美国的韧性,而历史也证明你是正确的。但今天,美国正经历一些巨大的变化,一些投资者也对“美国例外论”产生了质疑。在你看来,我们的投资者是对美国过度悲观了吗?”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:美国正在经历巨大和革命性的变化。但是回望过去百年,我们一直处在变化中,我们一直在批评各种事物……我认为自己出生在美国非常幸运,自上世纪30年代我出生以来,一切都发生了巨大改变。我们经历了大萧条,我们经历了世界大战,所以我不会为我们的现状感到沮丧,也不认为当前的问题会持续很久。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21: 55【关于投资时的耐心】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示:“当良机出现时,那时你不该保持耐心。你要耐心等待那个难得的来电时机...对于合情合理的交易,行动时不该犹豫;而对于那些空谈永远不会发生之事的人,更无需浪费时间。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:51 【阿吉特·贾恩:AI是一项改变游戏规则的工具】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在被问及人工智能对保险业务的影响时,伯克希尔保险业务主管阿吉特·贾恩首次发言。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示,人工智能将成为保险和风险定价领域的真正颠覆者。不过伯克希尔在保险领域的AI应用上将采取“观望”态度,尚未投入大量精力或资金把握这一机遇。贾恩同时指出,很多人在人工智能方面“最终是在花费巨额资金追逐下一个时尚潮流”,伯克希尔不擅长在下一个时尚事物上成为先行者。</p><p><strong>21:55 【巴菲特:房地产交易谈判比股票困难得多】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特被问及为何不买房: “就房地产而言,交易谈判比股票困难得多,需要花费大量时间,涉及多方。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:49 【巴菲特:AI是一项改变游戏规则的工具】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:AI是一项改变游戏规则的工具。我们传统上不是抢先去采用,还没有在AI投入很多精力。一旦准备好,就会投入。AI的事应由阿吉特·贾恩来决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在被问及人工智能对保险业务的影响时,阿吉特·贾恩首次发言。他表示,人工智能将成为保险和风险定价领域的真正颠覆者。不过伯克希尔在保险领域的AI应用上将采取“观望”态度,尚未投入大量精力或资金把握这一机遇。贾恩同时指出,很多人在人工智能方面“最终是在花费巨额资金追逐下一个时尚潮流”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:44【巴菲特:规模是伯克希尔业绩的敌人】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:“伯克希尔公司变得这么大真是太糟糕了。规模是伯克希尔业绩的敌人,我不知道有什么好办法来解决这个问题,这不是一个不可能解决的问题。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:40【巴菲特谈巨额现金储备】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:我们现金数量确实是相当高,但好的机会不会每一天都出现。不正确或不正当的投资,反而会损害投资人的利益。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示,他一直在寻找投资机会,并希望减少手头现金——<strong>可能降至500亿美元</strong>。他说:“事情偶尔会变得极具吸引力。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:重大交易“极不可能”明天就发生,但在五年内则并非如此。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:25 【伯克希尔可能永远持有日本五大商社股票】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:未来长时间内不会出售手中的日本五大商社股票,这些公司经营纪录非常优秀。伯克希尔还会扩大与日本公司的联系,大约在日本投资了200亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特指定接班人格雷格·阿贝尔表示,<strong>设想持有日本贸易公司股票至少50年,或永远持有</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:20 【巴菲特:贸易不应该被用作武器】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特被问及本次大会的第一个问题:“在2003年时,你曾在《财富》发表文章称,应该限制贸易逆差。而今年3月,你却把特朗普发起的关税战称为一场‘经济战争’。你对贸易壁垒的观点改变了吗?”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示:“我的意思是,在美国,我们应该寻求与世界其他国家进行贸易,我们应该做我们最擅长的事情……贸易不应该成为武器。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:08 【巴菲特点名感谢蒂姆·库克 库克起身致意】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特表示:“我有点不好意思地说,蒂姆·库克为伯克希尔赚的钱比我为伯克希尔哈撒韦赚的钱多得多。史蒂夫·乔布斯做了只有他才能做的事情,让苹果走上了今天的道路,尽管乔布斯不幸英年早逝,但他做了正确的决定,选择了库克来接任,事实证明库克做得很好。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果CEO蒂姆·库克也出席了本场伯克希尔股东大会,并在巴菲特提及他时起身挥手致意。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00f7b8e268c9d038030b449e8112ef66\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:02 【巴菲特:我想这会是我参加过的最好的一次年会】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特:“这是我参加的第60次年会,这是规模最大的一次,我想也会是最好的一次……我们没法知道有多少人今天在关注这场大会。我们现场有很多人,同时还有很多人在全球收听这场大会。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>21:00 【伯克希尔股东大会问答环节正式开始】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特与其接班人阿贝尔,以及保险业务主管阿吉特·贾恩登台,准备回答投资者们的一系列问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d64b875b951f1013e5c60de00d1cc3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">20:58 美国前国务卿希拉里·克林顿出现在大会现场。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6373df428bb8952ecfef79b9a8afbcd8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">20:50 今年即将95岁高龄的巴菲特已经准备好登台。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/047954b7fadd0321a687fc8958ee04ce\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>20:00 【伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司发布第一季度财报】</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示,公司第一季度营运收益为96.4亿美元,去年同期112亿美元,同比下跌14%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔在第一季度末的现金储备升至3477亿美元,再创历史新高,显示公司正持续出售股票,但在寻找可投资机会方面面临困难。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合投资亏损后,第一季度净利润46.03亿美元,上年同期盈利127.02亿美元。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46573963717eb605719ea1f5d6c33a6f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184806579","content_text":"当地时间5月3日,一年一度的投资界“春晚”——伯克希尔・哈撒韦股东大会在美国奥马哈市举行。在今年的股东大会上,巴菲特屡次就特朗普政府的政策与财政问题表达担忧,明确强调贸易不应作为武器。此外,他还针对伯克希尔的巨额现金储备,以及近期美股市场波动、海外投资、人生哲学、AI、自动驾驶、保险业务等一系列话题发表见解。令全球投资者感到意外的是,巴菲特在股东大会最后宣布,他已经决定将在周日的董事会上,提议在年底前正式将伯克希尔CEO职务交给接班人格雷格·阿贝尔。以下为全程回顾(北京时间):02:00 在巴菲特的退休宣言后,问答环节正式结束,全场起立鼓掌向他致敬。01:55 【巴菲特:我的时间已经到了,阿贝尔将在年底上任CEO】巴菲特表示,明天伯克希尔董事会将开会,有一项目前只有我和我的孩子们(也是公司董事)知道的提议。他将建议阿贝尔到年底时出任伯克希尔CEO。他“仍会留在公司”提供帮助,但“最终决定权”将属于阿贝尔。巴菲特表示,阿贝尔对此并不知情,除了他的子女外,其他董事会成员也都不知情。01:45 【如何评价伯克希尔仍在大量使用煤炭发电?】在股东提问中,阿贝尔遭到批评称,伯克希尔能源公司仍在大量使用煤炭发电,同时在转型新能源方面表现不佳。阿贝尔表示,伯克希尔能源是政策的执行者,在新能源政策方面需要与每个州进行洽谈,使用哪种能源很大程度上取决于各个州的政策,这不是伯克希尔能够决定的。阿贝尔同时讲述了2000年代初爱荷华州电力结构变化的轶事。他强调在州立法者的支持下伯克希尔投资了首个一个大型风电项目,同时淘汰了燃煤机组。他也补充道,煤炭机组对维持电力供应稳定仍不可或缺。01:35 巴菲特:我一直认为,政治人物如果有钱但没有信用,那对我来说是非常负面的信号。01:30 【巴菲特警告:美国经济的“圣殿”可能被“赌场”取代】巴菲特表示,美国资本主义取得了前所未有的成功。但是……这座宏伟的‘圣殿’催生了世界上前所未有的经济,然后又建了一座巨大的赌场。所以,你就有了赌场。在赌场里,每个人都玩得很开心,有很多钱在交易等等……未来100年,美国必须确保圣殿不会被赌场取代,这一点非常重要。因为人们真的很喜欢去赌场。”01:25 【巴菲特评“政府效率部”】巴菲特表示,官僚主义非常“具有传染性”,而且确实没有什么能制约它。如何控制政府收支平衡的问题从未真正得到解决,这个问题曾重创过许多文明。对于美国庞大的财政赤字,巴菲特表示这样的事情是不可持续的。他指出,美国长期以来没有真正解决财政赤字的问题,这从来都不是一个被彻底解决的议题。美国的财政赤字已经不是可持续的模式,两年也好,二十年也罢,我们不能永远依赖这种不可持续的机制。巴菲特同时表示,自己不想接手平衡美国财政收支的工作,但 “削减成本的工作应当完成”。现场响起掌声一片。01:10 【如何评价科技巨头正在大举投资AI】巴菲特表示,不进行投资就能赚钱,总是要比投入重金赚大钱更好。以可口可乐为例,下游的灌瓶厂需要大量的资本,但对于卖糖浆的可口可乐公司而言,并不需要太多的资本。巴菲特表示,未来观察“七巨头”公司会变得多么资本密集将非常有趣。在这个国家,很多资管行业的人通过关注他人如何投入资本而变得非常富有。01:00 对于是否考虑收购子公司BHE剩余股份的提问,巴菲特表示,由于“社会因素”,公用事业业务已不如几年前景气。00:55 【巴菲特保证“不会用股东的钱做傻事”】巴菲特向股东保证,伯克希尔不会将他们的钱用于公司认为“愚蠢”的事情,如果伯克希尔真的这么做了,股东们“就应该把我们赶走”。他还打趣称:“用别人的钱做傻事比用自己的钱更容易。这是政府普遍存在的问题之一。我们不想把这种问题带给私营企业。”00:45 【巴菲特:美国需要政府与产业在能源领域合作】巴菲特谈论美国能源行业的投资机会时表示:“处理这个问题的方法是政府和私营企业进行某种形式的合作,就像战争时期那样。”他还谈到伯克希尔公司可以在这其中提供帮助:“我们确实有资本,而且我们实际上还掌握了一些罕见的知识”00:35 【巴菲特:相对于营收报告 我更爱看资产负债表】巴菲特表示:“我花在查看资产负债表上的时间比查看营收报告的时间还多。华尔街其实不太关注资产负债表,但我喜欢先查看八年或十年的资产负债表,然后再查看营收报告,因为有些东西在资产负债表上更难隐藏或作弊。”00:30 【如何才能到伯克希尔工作】对于提问“未来如何才能进入伯克希尔上班”,巴菲特表示,未来的问题你得去问阿贝尔。阿尔贝表示:“勤奋工作和乐于奉献的精神会让你走得更远,期待你加入伯克希尔的那一天。”巴菲特随后补充道:“保持强烈的好奇心,多读书。”00:20 【阿贝尔谈接手后如何进行资本配置】阿贝尔表示,稳固的资产负债表“是一项巨大的资产”,伯克希尔将择时进行部署。他表示,公司将继续依靠管理人员来评估风险,并依靠公司自身来产生现金流,“我们永远不会依赖银行或其他任何一方来获得伯克希尔的成功。”阿贝尔强调,伯克希尔在管理风险、监督运营业务方面将采用与过去60年来完全相同的理念。未来收购公司或股票的理念也将保持不变。00:01 【巴菲特向投资者推荐电影《成为凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆》】巴菲特向投资者推荐电影,是一部讲述《华盛顿邮报》出版人凯萨琳·格雷厄姆的纪录片《成为凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆》。巴菲特因与格雷厄姆的友谊及在《华盛顿邮报》董事会的角色而出现在这部影片中。在格雷厄姆执掌期间,这份报纸报道了水门事件,最终导致总统理查德·尼克松辞职。image5月4日 00:00 巴菲特和阿贝尔重回舞台,下半场的问答开始,预期将持续到凌晨2时左右。23:30 【问答环节上半场结束 下半场将于北京时间5月4日00:00开始】23:25 巴菲特:伯克希尔持有的现金和国库券,比我期望的要多得多。23:15 【贾恩谈自动驾驶技术将如何影响保险业】贾恩表示,毫无疑问,一旦自动驾驶汽车成为现实,汽车保险将发生“巨大”变化。“大多数买卖的保险都与驾驶员失误有关,包括失误发生的频率、严重程度,以及相应的保费。如果这些新型自动驾驶汽车更加安全,事故发生率更低,那么对这类保险的需求就会减少,相反,它将被产品责任所取代。他表示:“GEICO 和其他公司都在为这一转变做好准备,我们将从为操作员错误提供保险转向为产品错误提供保护。”23:14【巴菲特谈如何面对挫折】一位来自上海的伯克希尔股东询问巴菲特如何应对人生中的挫折。巴菲特表示:每个人都会遇到挫折,这就是人生的一部分。有的人会很幸运,有的人会很倒霉。从中国历史来看,这位投资者真是活在了一个好时代。与生在一百年前、一千年前的人相比,这也是一种幸运。至于挫折,巴菲特表示,他会专注于生活中美好的事物,而非不幸之事。生活可以很精彩,尽管其中也可能遭遇重大挫折。23:05 【巴菲特谈市场波动:过去几十天的下跌根本不算什么,应改变投资理念】巴菲特在谈到与1929年股市崩盘等时期相比当前股市的波动时表示:“这算不上是大幅波动。”自从收购伯克希尔后,公司股价曾经发生过3次短时间里50%以上的大跌,而且公司当时的基本面没有问题。与历史上的大崩盘相比,过去几十天的下跌根本不算什么。给那些担心自己的投资组合会周期性波动的人的一些建议是:他们应该改变自己的投资理念,并去适应这个世界 —— 世界是不会来适应他们的。23:00【巴菲特谈年青投资者应如何塑造自己的投资理念】巴菲特:你与谁交往极其重要。你要与比你优秀的人相处,最终你会朝着你所交往的人的方向发展。巴菲特:世界不会适应你——你必须去适应它。世界会犯大错,系统越复杂,意外就越多。这就是股市的由来。如果你害怕下跌,又为上涨而兴奋,那只是人类的情感——但当你投资时,你需要将这些情绪抛在脑后22:48【贾恩:伯克希尔不想在寿险领域与私募股权公司竞争】巴菲特表示,很多企业都想复制伯克希尔模式,但不愿让CEO控制公司运营的所有资金。巴菲特说:“他们的受托责任感有些不同,如果行不通,他们就会转向其他事情。”贾恩表示,伯克希尔不想在寿险领域与私募股权公司竞争。私募公司在经济向好时承担着杠杆和信用风险,尤其是在人寿保险领域。只要经济表现良好且信用利差较低,他们就能赚大钱,但监管机构可能会对保险机构的冒险行为感到恼火。最终可能会以悲剧收场。22:30 【巴菲特:不会随意投资在海外国家】巴菲特:不会随意投资在海外国家,除非有极好的机会。在蒙古没有投资的计划。22:20 【巴菲特:美国的财政问题并非美国独有的问题】巴菲特被问及是否采取措施应对美元走弱时表示,伯克希尔几乎不会因为要使得一个季度或一年的财报更好看去做任何事情。他也强调,不会想持有任何他们认为会贬得一文不值的货币资产。巴菲特同时表示,美国的财政问题令他害怕,但这也不是美国独有的问题。对于增持日元资产,他表示日本的情况不一样,现在借日元的成本也非常低。22:15【巴菲特透露伯克希尔近期差点敲定一笔百亿美元交易】巴菲特透露,不久前“差点就花掉了100 亿美元”,但最终没有动手。他也强调:“我的意思是,当遇到我们理解、认为有价值且合理的投资机会时,做这些决定并不困难。”22:10【巴菲特:我不会为美国的现状感到沮丧】巴菲特被问道:“长期以来,你一直坚信美国的韧性,而历史也证明你是正确的。但今天,美国正经历一些巨大的变化,一些投资者也对“美国例外论”产生了质疑。在你看来,我们的投资者是对美国过度悲观了吗?”巴菲特:美国正在经历巨大和革命性的变化。但是回望过去百年,我们一直处在变化中,我们一直在批评各种事物……我认为自己出生在美国非常幸运,自上世纪30年代我出生以来,一切都发生了巨大改变。我们经历了大萧条,我们经历了世界大战,所以我不会为我们的现状感到沮丧,也不认为当前的问题会持续很久。21: 55【关于投资时的耐心】巴菲特表示:“当良机出现时,那时你不该保持耐心。你要耐心等待那个难得的来电时机...对于合情合理的交易,行动时不该犹豫;而对于那些空谈永远不会发生之事的人,更无需浪费时间。”21:51 【阿吉特·贾恩:AI是一项改变游戏规则的工具】在被问及人工智能对保险业务的影响时,伯克希尔保险业务主管阿吉特·贾恩首次发言。他表示,人工智能将成为保险和风险定价领域的真正颠覆者。不过伯克希尔在保险领域的AI应用上将采取“观望”态度,尚未投入大量精力或资金把握这一机遇。贾恩同时指出,很多人在人工智能方面“最终是在花费巨额资金追逐下一个时尚潮流”,伯克希尔不擅长在下一个时尚事物上成为先行者。21:55 【巴菲特:房地产交易谈判比股票困难得多】巴菲特被问及为何不买房: “就房地产而言,交易谈判比股票困难得多,需要花费大量时间,涉及多方。”21:49 【巴菲特:AI是一项改变游戏规则的工具】巴菲特:AI是一项改变游戏规则的工具。我们传统上不是抢先去采用,还没有在AI投入很多精力。一旦准备好,就会投入。AI的事应由阿吉特·贾恩来决定。在被问及人工智能对保险业务的影响时,阿吉特·贾恩首次发言。他表示,人工智能将成为保险和风险定价领域的真正颠覆者。不过伯克希尔在保险领域的AI应用上将采取“观望”态度,尚未投入大量精力或资金把握这一机遇。贾恩同时指出,很多人在人工智能方面“最终是在花费巨额资金追逐下一个时尚潮流”。21:44【巴菲特:规模是伯克希尔业绩的敌人】巴菲特:“伯克希尔公司变得这么大真是太糟糕了。规模是伯克希尔业绩的敌人,我不知道有什么好办法来解决这个问题,这不是一个不可能解决的问题。”21:40【巴菲特谈巨额现金储备】巴菲特:我们现金数量确实是相当高,但好的机会不会每一天都出现。不正确或不正当的投资,反而会损害投资人的利益。巴菲特表示,他一直在寻找投资机会,并希望减少手头现金——可能降至500亿美元。他说:“事情偶尔会变得极具吸引力。”巴菲特:重大交易“极不可能”明天就发生,但在五年内则并非如此。21:25 【伯克希尔可能永远持有日本五大商社股票】巴菲特:未来长时间内不会出售手中的日本五大商社股票,这些公司经营纪录非常优秀。伯克希尔还会扩大与日本公司的联系,大约在日本投资了200亿美元。巴菲特指定接班人格雷格·阿贝尔表示,设想持有日本贸易公司股票至少50年,或永远持有。21:20 【巴菲特:贸易不应该被用作武器】巴菲特被问及本次大会的第一个问题:“在2003年时,你曾在《财富》发表文章称,应该限制贸易逆差。而今年3月,你却把特朗普发起的关税战称为一场‘经济战争’。你对贸易壁垒的观点改变了吗?”巴菲特表示:“我的意思是,在美国,我们应该寻求与世界其他国家进行贸易,我们应该做我们最擅长的事情……贸易不应该成为武器。”21:08 【巴菲特点名感谢蒂姆·库克 库克起身致意】巴菲特表示:“我有点不好意思地说,蒂姆·库克为伯克希尔赚的钱比我为伯克希尔哈撒韦赚的钱多得多。史蒂夫·乔布斯做了只有他才能做的事情,让苹果走上了今天的道路,尽管乔布斯不幸英年早逝,但他做了正确的决定,选择了库克来接任,事实证明库克做得很好。”苹果CEO蒂姆·库克也出席了本场伯克希尔股东大会,并在巴菲特提及他时起身挥手致意。21:02 【巴菲特:我想这会是我参加过的最好的一次年会】巴菲特:“这是我参加的第60次年会,这是规模最大的一次,我想也会是最好的一次……我们没法知道有多少人今天在关注这场大会。我们现场有很多人,同时还有很多人在全球收听这场大会。”21:00 【伯克希尔股东大会问答环节正式开始】巴菲特与其接班人阿贝尔,以及保险业务主管阿吉特·贾恩登台,准备回答投资者们的一系列问题。20:58 美国前国务卿希拉里·克林顿出现在大会现场。20:50 今年即将95岁高龄的巴菲特已经准备好登台。20:00 【伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司发布第一季度财报】财报显示,公司第一季度营运收益为96.4亿美元,去年同期112亿美元,同比下跌14%。伯克希尔在第一季度末的现金储备升至3477亿美元,再创历史新高,显示公司正持续出售股票,但在寻找可投资机会方面面临困难。综合投资亏损后,第一季度净利润46.03亿美元,上年同期盈利127.02亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291799978844208,"gmtCreate":1712266165682,"gmtModify":1712266168405,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 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16:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"转换额度耗尽!SK海力士ADR套利窗口关闭,此前价差一度高达51%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104571519","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SK海力士ADR相对韩国本地股的溢价一度高达51%,截至周三仍维持在约33%的高位。套利机制失灵,溢价持续高企SK海力士于7月10日完成史上外国公司在美最大规模股票发行,此后ADR与韩国本地股之间的定价背离便成为市场焦点。SK海力士的情况与之类似,但溢价幅度更为极端。每份SK海力士ADR对应十分之一普通股,ADR持有人可注销凭证并取回韩国股票,但反向操作受到严格限制。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK海力士美国存托凭证与韩国本地股之间的巨大价差,短期内将无从消弭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周四,韩国证券存管机构(KSD)明确,<strong>SK海力士将本地股转换为ADR的比例上限设定为总股本的2.5%,且该额度已在7月10日完成的265亿美元ADR发行中全部耗尽。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">KSD首席执行官Rhee Yunsu在接受电话采访时表示,除非现有ADR持有人将手中凭证转回韩国股票、腾出额度,否则投资者目前无法将首尔上市股票转换为ADR。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一结构性约束意味着,正常的跨市场套利机制实际上已被封堵。<strong>SK海力士ADR相对韩国本地股的溢价一度高达51%,截至周三仍维持在约33%的高位。</strong>转换通道受阻,令这一价差存在长期持续的可能,并在市场上催生出一系列替代性布局策略。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>套利机制失灵,溢价持续高企</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SK海力士于7月10日完成史上外国公司在美最大规模股票发行,此后ADR与韩国本地股之间的定价背离便成为市场焦点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通常情况下,ADR与对应本地股之间的价差可通过发行或注销ADR的转换操作迅速抹平。然而,当前转换通道面临双重封堵:其一,作为存托银行的花旗集团发布通知称,由于韩国新发行普通股在于韩国交易所挂牌前不可转让,ADR账簿的发行与注销通道将关闭至7月29日;其二,KSD的表态进一步明确,即便通道重新开放,2.5%的转换上限已告用尽,可用容量极为有限,且后续是否需要额外监管审批仍不明朗。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两道闸门叠加,令套利者几乎无从下手。SK海力士ADR溢价一度飙升至51%的历史峰值,截至周三仍约高出本地股33%。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>结构类台积电,溢价或成常态</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">KSD的表态揭示了SK海力士ADR的结构性特征——其与台积电ADR的机制高度相似。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">台积电ADR持有人可将凭证转换为中国台湾本地股,但本地股无法自由转换为ADR,这一单向机制导致其美股长期维持溢价。据彭博数据,过去五年台积电ADR平均溢价约为12.6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SK海力士的情况与之类似,但溢价幅度更为极端。每份SK海力士ADR对应十分之一普通股,ADR持有人可注销凭证并取回韩国股票,但反向操作受到严格限制。分析人士认为,这一结构性约束使得溢价长期存在的可能性显著上升。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>转换额度耗尽!SK海力士ADR套利窗口关闭,此前价差一度高达51%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n转换额度耗尽!SK海力士ADR套利窗口关闭,此前价差一度高达51%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-23 16:52 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777775><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SK海力士美国存托凭证与韩国本地股之间的巨大价差,短期内将无从消弭。周四,韩国证券存管机构(KSD)明确,SK海力士将本地股转换为ADR的比例上限设定为总股本的2.5%,且该额度已在7月10日完成的265亿美元ADR发行中全部耗尽。KSD首席执行官Rhee Yunsu在接受电话采访时表示,除非现有ADR持有人将手中凭证转回韩国股票、腾出额度,否则投资者目前无法将首尔上市股票转换为ADR。这一结构性...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777775\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b4f3d6b5463ae26f1396ffad1440a7f5","relate_stocks":{"SKHY":"SK海力士","07709":"XL二南方海力士","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","SKHZ":"1倍做空海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","SKHU":"2倍做多海力士-ProShares","HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX","SKDD":"2倍做空海力士ETF-GraniteShares","SKUU":"2倍做多海力士ETF-GraniteShares","SKHX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Leverage Shares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777775","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104571519","content_text":"SK海力士美国存托凭证与韩国本地股之间的巨大价差,短期内将无从消弭。周四,韩国证券存管机构(KSD)明确,SK海力士将本地股转换为ADR的比例上限设定为总股本的2.5%,且该额度已在7月10日完成的265亿美元ADR发行中全部耗尽。KSD首席执行官Rhee Yunsu在接受电话采访时表示,除非现有ADR持有人将手中凭证转回韩国股票、腾出额度,否则投资者目前无法将首尔上市股票转换为ADR。这一结构性约束意味着,正常的跨市场套利机制实际上已被封堵。SK海力士ADR相对韩国本地股的溢价一度高达51%,截至周三仍维持在约33%的高位。转换通道受阻,令这一价差存在长期持续的可能,并在市场上催生出一系列替代性布局策略。套利机制失灵,溢价持续高企SK海力士于7月10日完成史上外国公司在美最大规模股票发行,此后ADR与韩国本地股之间的定价背离便成为市场焦点。通常情况下,ADR与对应本地股之间的价差可通过发行或注销ADR的转换操作迅速抹平。然而,当前转换通道面临双重封堵:其一,作为存托银行的花旗集团发布通知称,由于韩国新发行普通股在于韩国交易所挂牌前不可转让,ADR账簿的发行与注销通道将关闭至7月29日;其二,KSD的表态进一步明确,即便通道重新开放,2.5%的转换上限已告用尽,可用容量极为有限,且后续是否需要额外监管审批仍不明朗。两道闸门叠加,令套利者几乎无从下手。SK海力士ADR溢价一度飙升至51%的历史峰值,截至周三仍约高出本地股33%。结构类台积电,溢价或成常态KSD的表态揭示了SK海力士ADR的结构性特征——其与台积电ADR的机制高度相似。台积电ADR持有人可将凭证转换为中国台湾本地股,但本地股无法自由转换为ADR,这一单向机制导致其美股长期维持溢价。据彭博数据,过去五年台积电ADR平均溢价约为12.6%。SK海力士的情况与之类似,但溢价幅度更为极端。每份SK海力士ADR对应十分之一普通股,ADR持有人可注销凭证并取回韩国股票,但反向操作受到严格限制。分析人士认为,这一结构性约束使得溢价长期存在的可能性显著上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SKHY":2,"SKHX":0.6,"07709":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"SK":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"SKUU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":588992862397256,"gmtCreate":1784828517950,"gmtModify":1784828529565,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$沃尔玛(WMT)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$沃尔玛(WMT)$ </a> ","text":"$沃尔玛(WMT)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/104ad3c20beacf2f16ba79822804b0a8","width":"1080","height":"2341"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588992862397256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":588943527826128,"gmtCreate":1784816472479,"gmtModify":1784816474339,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 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4太烧钱!巴克莱测算:谷歌将连续两年自由现金流为负","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2653871937","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"巴克莱在谷歌Q2财报后大幅上调资本支出预期:2027年升至3500亿美元,2028年升至5000亿美元,均超同期经营性现金流,自由现金流将转负。核心驱动为Gemini 4大模型训练的算力需求。谷歌每月花约10亿美元租用外部GPU,释放自有算力用于训练。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet一份超预期的季报,换来的不是轻松,而是一张更大的账单。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台消息,巴克莱在7月22日的研报中称,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>公布2026年第二季度财报后,巴克莱将谷歌2027年资本支出预期大幅上调至3500亿美元,<strong>2028年进一步升至5000亿美元</strong>,均超过同期经营性现金流的100%,这意味着<strong>谷歌将在未来两年持续处于自由现金流为负的状态。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>推动这一资本支出激增的核心驱动力,是谷歌正在为Gemini 4大模型的大规模训练运行积累算力储备。</strong>巴克莱认为,谷歌当前正以高于市场的溢价租用外部GPU算力,为部分GCP客户提供"过渡性"算力支持,同时释放自有算力用于Gemini 4的训练。<strong>这一安排每月成本约达10亿美元,将对第四季度及2027年第一季度的云业务利润率形成压制。</strong></p>\n<p>据华尔街见闻文章写道,最新财报显示,谷歌Q2云业务收入同比增长82%,云业务积压订单单季度增加500亿美元至5140亿美元,搜索广告收入同比增长17%,YouTube广告增速加速至13%。然而,在财报电话会上,AI全面渗透所带来的运营成本与资本支出的双重膨胀,正在成为市场关注的核心变量。CFO阿什肯纳齐预计,<strong>AI基础设施投入将持续对利润表和现金流构成压力</strong>。</p>\n<h2>云业务加速,但成本压力同步攀升</h2>\n<p>巴克莱将本季度最大亮点归结为谷歌云的持续加速。2026年第二季度,Google Cloud收入达247.68亿美元,同比增长82%(巴克莱估计剔除TPU销售后约为77%),云业务运营利润率提升至36%。云业务积压订单从上季度的464亿美元跃升至5140亿美元,单季净增500亿美元,显示出企业客户对GCP需求的强劲势头。</p>\n<p>然而,<strong>云业务的高速增长伴随着显著的成本上升。</strong>报告指出,谷歌与Colossus签署了一项每月约10亿美元的GPU租赁协议,以"过渡性"方式为部分GCP客户提供算力,预计持续约两个季度。巴克莱认为,<strong>这一安排的实质目的在于释放谷歌自有的第一方算力,为Gemini 4的大规模训练运行腾出空间。</strong></p>\n<p>巴克莱认为,谷歌支付的溢价租金"令人侧目",但考虑到当前算力供需的紧迫性以及该安排的临时性质,这一决策具有一定合理性。报告同时指出,这一布局理论上有助于谷歌为其轨道数据中心机架的未来负载容量奠定基础。</p>\n<h2>Gemini 4训练催生资本支出"爆炸式"增长</h2>\n<p>巴克莱在报告中明确表示,<strong>此次大幅上调资本支出预期,直接与Gemini 4大模型的训练需求挂钩。</strong>报告显示,巴克莱将2027年资本支出预期从此前的2561亿美元上调至3502亿美元,上调幅度达37%;<strong>2028年资本支出预期则从3274亿美元大幅上调至5003亿美元,上调幅度约53%。</strong></p>\n<p>按照巴克莱的预测模型,谷歌2026年至2028年的资本支出将分别达到约2005亿、3502亿和5003亿美元,连续两年超过同期经营性现金流,自由现金流将分别转为负65亿美元和负1352亿美元。</p>\n<p>报告同时指出,谷歌管理层在财报电话会议上对Gemini 4及整体AI模型开发节奏表达了明确信心。目前,Gemini API的调用量已达到每分钟220亿个token,较一个季度前的160亿大幅提升,同比增长3至4倍,<strong>巴克莱估计其市场地位已与Anthropic并列第二。</strong></p>\n<h2>AI全栈布局构筑竞争壁垒,但多线作战成本高企</h2>\n<p>巴克莱将谷歌定性为"当前全球AI前沿程度最高的公司",其AI布局横跨应用层(搜索、Gemini等)、模型层(Gemini、Flash等)、基础设施层(GCP)以及原始算力层(TPU),形成完整的全栈覆盖。巴克莱认为,<strong>这一广度将在后续季度随着云业务的持续加速而愈发凸显。</strong></p>\n<p>然而,这种全线竞争的代价同样显著。巴克莱报告指出,谷歌同时面临来自Anthropic和OpenAI在模型层的竞争,以及AWS和Azure在基础设施层的压力,同时还需维持13款月活用户超过10亿的应用产品的正常运营。<strong>这种"多线作战"的格局,正是推动运营支出和资本支出双双膨胀的根本原因。</strong></p>\n<p>在盈利预测方面,巴克莱将2027年收入和营业利润预期均上调5%,主要反映谷歌云收入及利润的上修。但受Colossus协议影响,2026年第四季度及2027年第一季度EPS预期有所下调,此后各期EPS预期则相应上调。</p>\n<p>巴克莱将<strong>谷歌目标价从405美元上调至425美元</strong>,估值方法基于2027年至2028年预期EPS的25倍市盈率与EBITDA的15倍估值倍数的平均值,<strong>维持"增持"评级不变。</strong></p>\n<p>从更长远的视角来看,巴克莱认为,在AI价值链的全栈捕获能力上,Alphabet目前鲜有可比对手,其跨层布局的战略价值将随AI需求的持续扩张而逐步释放。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>训练Gemini 4太烧钱!巴克莱测算:谷歌将连续两年自由现金流为负</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-23 14:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet一份超预期的季报,换来的不是轻松,而是一张更大的账单。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台消息,巴克莱在7月22日的研报中称,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>公布2026年第二季度财报后,巴克莱将谷歌2027年资本支出预期大幅上调至3500亿美元,<strong>2028年进一步升至5000亿美元</strong>,均超过同期经营性现金流的100%,这意味着<strong>谷歌将在未来两年持续处于自由现金流为负的状态。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>推动这一资本支出激增的核心驱动力,是谷歌正在为Gemini 4大模型的大规模训练运行积累算力储备。</strong>巴克莱认为,谷歌当前正以高于市场的溢价租用外部GPU算力,为部分GCP客户提供"过渡性"算力支持,同时释放自有算力用于Gemini 4的训练。<strong>这一安排每月成本约达10亿美元,将对第四季度及2027年第一季度的云业务利润率形成压制。</strong></p>\n<p>据华尔街见闻文章写道,最新财报显示,谷歌Q2云业务收入同比增长82%,云业务积压订单单季度增加500亿美元至5140亿美元,搜索广告收入同比增长17%,YouTube广告增速加速至13%。然而,在财报电话会上,AI全面渗透所带来的运营成本与资本支出的双重膨胀,正在成为市场关注的核心变量。CFO阿什肯纳齐预计,<strong>AI基础设施投入将持续对利润表和现金流构成压力</strong>。</p>\n<h2>云业务加速,但成本压力同步攀升</h2>\n<p>巴克莱将本季度最大亮点归结为谷歌云的持续加速。2026年第二季度,Google Cloud收入达247.68亿美元,同比增长82%(巴克莱估计剔除TPU销售后约为77%),云业务运营利润率提升至36%。云业务积压订单从上季度的464亿美元跃升至5140亿美元,单季净增500亿美元,显示出企业客户对GCP需求的强劲势头。</p>\n<p>然而,<strong>云业务的高速增长伴随着显著的成本上升。</strong>报告指出,谷歌与Colossus签署了一项每月约10亿美元的GPU租赁协议,以"过渡性"方式为部分GCP客户提供算力,预计持续约两个季度。巴克莱认为,<strong>这一安排的实质目的在于释放谷歌自有的第一方算力,为Gemini 4的大规模训练运行腾出空间。</strong></p>\n<p>巴克莱认为,谷歌支付的溢价租金"令人侧目",但考虑到当前算力供需的紧迫性以及该安排的临时性质,这一决策具有一定合理性。报告同时指出,这一布局理论上有助于谷歌为其轨道数据中心机架的未来负载容量奠定基础。</p>\n<h2>Gemini 4训练催生资本支出"爆炸式"增长</h2>\n<p>巴克莱在报告中明确表示,<strong>此次大幅上调资本支出预期,直接与Gemini 4大模型的训练需求挂钩。</strong>报告显示,巴克莱将2027年资本支出预期从此前的2561亿美元上调至3502亿美元,上调幅度达37%;<strong>2028年资本支出预期则从3274亿美元大幅上调至5003亿美元,上调幅度约53%。</strong></p>\n<p>按照巴克莱的预测模型,谷歌2026年至2028年的资本支出将分别达到约2005亿、3502亿和5003亿美元,连续两年超过同期经营性现金流,自由现金流将分别转为负65亿美元和负1352亿美元。</p>\n<p>报告同时指出,谷歌管理层在财报电话会议上对Gemini 4及整体AI模型开发节奏表达了明确信心。目前,Gemini API的调用量已达到每分钟220亿个token,较一个季度前的160亿大幅提升,同比增长3至4倍,<strong>巴克莱估计其市场地位已与Anthropic并列第二。</strong></p>\n<h2>AI全栈布局构筑竞争壁垒,但多线作战成本高企</h2>\n<p>巴克莱将谷歌定性为"当前全球AI前沿程度最高的公司",其AI布局横跨应用层(搜索、Gemini等)、模型层(Gemini、Flash等)、基础设施层(GCP)以及原始算力层(TPU),形成完整的全栈覆盖。巴克莱认为,<strong>这一广度将在后续季度随着云业务的持续加速而愈发凸显。</strong></p>\n<p>然而,这种全线竞争的代价同样显著。巴克莱报告指出,谷歌同时面临来自Anthropic和OpenAI在模型层的竞争,以及AWS和Azure在基础设施层的压力,同时还需维持13款月活用户超过10亿的应用产品的正常运营。<strong>这种"多线作战"的格局,正是推动运营支出和资本支出双双膨胀的根本原因。</strong></p>\n<p>在盈利预测方面,巴克莱将2027年收入和营业利润预期均上调5%,主要反映谷歌云收入及利润的上修。但受Colossus协议影响,2026年第四季度及2027年第一季度EPS预期有所下调,此后各期EPS预期则相应上调。</p>\n<p>巴克莱将<strong>谷歌目标价从405美元上调至425美元</strong>,估值方法基于2027年至2028年预期EPS的25倍市盈率与EBITDA的15倍估值倍数的平均值,<strong>维持"增持"评级不变。</strong></p>\n<p>从更长远的视角来看,巴克莱认为,在AI价值链的全栈捕获能力上,Alphabet目前鲜有可比对手,其跨层布局的战略价值将随AI需求的持续扩张而逐步释放。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d25e1a14780c2d1e6ec5ecf96395d05","relate_stocks":{"LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" 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(LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","GOOW":"Roundhill GOOGL WeeklyPay ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777753","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2653871937","content_text":"谷歌母公司Alphabet一份超预期的季报,换来的不是轻松,而是一张更大的账单。\n据追风交易台消息,巴克莱在7月22日的研报中称,在谷歌公布2026年第二季度财报后,巴克莱将谷歌2027年资本支出预期大幅上调至3500亿美元,2028年进一步升至5000亿美元,均超过同期经营性现金流的100%,这意味着谷歌将在未来两年持续处于自由现金流为负的状态。\n推动这一资本支出激增的核心驱动力,是谷歌正在为Gemini 4大模型的大规模训练运行积累算力储备。巴克莱认为,谷歌当前正以高于市场的溢价租用外部GPU算力,为部分GCP客户提供\"过渡性\"算力支持,同时释放自有算力用于Gemini 4的训练。这一安排每月成本约达10亿美元,将对第四季度及2027年第一季度的云业务利润率形成压制。\n据华尔街见闻文章写道,最新财报显示,谷歌Q2云业务收入同比增长82%,云业务积压订单单季度增加500亿美元至5140亿美元,搜索广告收入同比增长17%,YouTube广告增速加速至13%。然而,在财报电话会上,AI全面渗透所带来的运营成本与资本支出的双重膨胀,正在成为市场关注的核心变量。CFO阿什肯纳齐预计,AI基础设施投入将持续对利润表和现金流构成压力。\n云业务加速,但成本压力同步攀升\n巴克莱将本季度最大亮点归结为谷歌云的持续加速。2026年第二季度,Google Cloud收入达247.68亿美元,同比增长82%(巴克莱估计剔除TPU销售后约为77%),云业务运营利润率提升至36%。云业务积压订单从上季度的464亿美元跃升至5140亿美元,单季净增500亿美元,显示出企业客户对GCP需求的强劲势头。\n然而,云业务的高速增长伴随着显著的成本上升。报告指出,谷歌与Colossus签署了一项每月约10亿美元的GPU租赁协议,以\"过渡性\"方式为部分GCP客户提供算力,预计持续约两个季度。巴克莱认为,这一安排的实质目的在于释放谷歌自有的第一方算力,为Gemini 4的大规模训练运行腾出空间。\n巴克莱认为,谷歌支付的溢价租金\"令人侧目\",但考虑到当前算力供需的紧迫性以及该安排的临时性质,这一决策具有一定合理性。报告同时指出,这一布局理论上有助于谷歌为其轨道数据中心机架的未来负载容量奠定基础。\nGemini 4训练催生资本支出\"爆炸式\"增长\n巴克莱在报告中明确表示,此次大幅上调资本支出预期,直接与Gemini 4大模型的训练需求挂钩。报告显示,巴克莱将2027年资本支出预期从此前的2561亿美元上调至3502亿美元,上调幅度达37%;2028年资本支出预期则从3274亿美元大幅上调至5003亿美元,上调幅度约53%。\n按照巴克莱的预测模型,谷歌2026年至2028年的资本支出将分别达到约2005亿、3502亿和5003亿美元,连续两年超过同期经营性现金流,自由现金流将分别转为负65亿美元和负1352亿美元。\n报告同时指出,谷歌管理层在财报电话会议上对Gemini 4及整体AI模型开发节奏表达了明确信心。目前,Gemini API的调用量已达到每分钟220亿个token,较一个季度前的160亿大幅提升,同比增长3至4倍,巴克莱估计其市场地位已与Anthropic并列第二。\nAI全栈布局构筑竞争壁垒,但多线作战成本高企\n巴克莱将谷歌定性为\"当前全球AI前沿程度最高的公司\",其AI布局横跨应用层(搜索、Gemini等)、模型层(Gemini、Flash等)、基础设施层(GCP)以及原始算力层(TPU),形成完整的全栈覆盖。巴克莱认为,这一广度将在后续季度随着云业务的持续加速而愈发凸显。\n然而,这种全线竞争的代价同样显著。巴克莱报告指出,谷歌同时面临来自Anthropic和OpenAI在模型层的竞争,以及AWS和Azure在基础设施层的压力,同时还需维持13款月活用户超过10亿的应用产品的正常运营。这种\"多线作战\"的格局,正是推动运营支出和资本支出双双膨胀的根本原因。\n在盈利预测方面,巴克莱将2027年收入和营业利润预期均上调5%,主要反映谷歌云收入及利润的上修。但受Colossus协议影响,2026年第四季度及2027年第一季度EPS预期有所下调,此后各期EPS预期则相应上调。\n巴克莱将谷歌目标价从405美元上调至425美元,估值方法基于2027年至2028年预期EPS的25倍市盈率与EBITDA的15倍估值倍数的平均值,维持\"增持\"评级不变。\n从更长远的视角来看,巴克莱认为,在AI价值链的全栈捕获能力上,Alphabet目前鲜有可比对手,其跨层布局的战略价值将随AI需求的持续扩张而逐步释放。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":2.1,"XLC":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"TRUC":0.6,"CQTM":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"LTL":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"VOX":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"FCOM":0.6,"GXPC":0.6,"SKYY":0.6,"METV":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"GOOY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":95711,"gmtCreate":1505466975562,"gmtModify":1704881286521,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"炒股2个月,亏损30%,还有救吗?","htmlText":"目前已经实现亏损10%,还有浮亏20%求救!$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微博(WB)$ $好未来(TAL)$$易车网(BITA)$ $京东(JD)$ $网易(NTES)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $陌陌(MOMO)$ $迅雷(XNET)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $58同城(WUBA)$$腾讯控股(00700)$ $融创中国(01918)$ $中国恒大(03333)$ $碧桂园(02007)$ $汽车之家(ATHM)$ $纳指ETF(QQQ)$","listText":"目前已经实现亏损10%,还有浮亏20%求救!$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微博(WB)$ $好未来(TAL)$$易车网(BITA)$ $京东(JD)$ $网易(NTES)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $陌陌(MOMO)$ $迅雷(XNET)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $58同城(WUBA)$$腾讯控股(00700)$ $融创中国(01918)$ $中国恒大(03333)$ $碧桂园(02007)$ $汽车之家(ATHM)$ $纳指ETF(QQQ)$","text":"目前已经实现亏损10%,还有浮亏20%求救!$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微博(WB)$ $好未来(TAL)$$易车网(BITA)$ $京东(JD)$ $网易(NTES)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $陌陌(MOMO)$ $迅雷(XNET)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $58同城(WUBA)$$腾讯控股(00700)$ $融创中国(01918)$ $中国恒大(03333)$ $碧桂园(02007)$ $汽车之家(ATHM)$ $纳指ETF(QQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":123,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/95711","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3434046638438343","authorId":"3434046638438343","name":"柴总的美股投资日常","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/492d307138eed3b8e9e2f4f52fe12929","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3434046638438343","authorIdStr":"3434046638438343"},"content":"我玩期权快没有了,只剩270美金,昨晚下定决心只做正股........正股我觉只买三大指数成分股还有知名中概股就行了,把自己的圈子限定好,其他的不要去看了........270美金不知何时才能翻身....😂😂","text":"我玩期权快没有了,只剩270美金,昨晚下定决心只做正股........正股我觉只买三大指数成分股还有知名中概股就行了,把自己的圈子限定好,其他的不要去看了........270美金不知何时才能翻身....😂😂","html":"我玩期权快没有了,只剩270美金,昨晚下定决心只做正股........正股我觉只买三大指数成分股还有知名中概股就行了,把自己的圈子限定好,其他的不要去看了........270美金不知何时才能翻身....😂😂"},{"author":{"id":"3449576562641609","authorId":"3449576562641609","name":"eleesa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3449576562641609","authorIdStr":"3449576562641609"},"content":"我1万美元亏的只剩1500,然后翻到3万多","text":"我1万美元亏的只剩1500,然后翻到3万多","html":"我1万美元亏的只剩1500,然后翻到3万多"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616716148,"gmtCreate":1651976069784,"gmtModify":1652086391528,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"纳斯达克千年大顶?","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 的历史最高收盘价,即“千年大顶”,暂时定格在了2021年11月19日周五16057.44点,这也是纳指历史上唯一一次收盘高于16000点,也许正因为物极必反,下一个周一11月22日,纳指便掉头向下,开始了至今长达5个多月,甚至可能会持续更久的滚滚大熊市。为什么是这一天?是什么导致十几年的美股大牛市戛然而止?导火索是什么?答:11月22日,美股开盘时分,一则鲍威尔连任的BREAKING NEWS传遍华尔街和全世界。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$</a> 火箭般飙升,但在开盘45分钟之后,便一头栽下去了,从此纳指的命运彻底转变了……鸽王连任不是好事吗?为何市场不买账?仅仅“高兴”了45分钟就“集体叛变”了?前因后果说来很复杂,但可以简单总结一下:在此之前,通胀已经远高于2%的目标,但鲍威尔大概是为了顺利连任,每次都说“通胀是暂时的”,市场便仍然很勉强的继续看涨,以至于本来9月7日就应该已经见顶了的纳指,硬是“又续了一命”,再拉了一波至11月19日,即白宫宣布新的美联储主席的前一天;而此时11月的CPI通胀已飙升至6.2%,市场很难再相信鲍威尔的“通胀暂时论”,也更有理由担心鲍威尔会因为“位子稳了”而开始大变脸,于是在一致性预期之下,“卖事实”,纳指开始崩盘了。而鲍威尔也真的开始转变态度了,缩水、加息、缩表,一件件的提上了日程表。正印证了那句“我预期了你的预期”,然后“你按照我的预期执行”?有点意思。人总是有私心的,但公道自在人心。在22Q1财报季初期,纳指快速下跌至13000点附近。再叠加俄","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 的历史最高收盘价,即“千年大顶”,暂时定格在了2021年11月19日周五16057.44点,这也是纳指历史上唯一一次收盘高于16000点,也许正因为物极必反,下一个周一11月22日,纳指便掉头向下,开始了至今长达5个多月,甚至可能会持续更久的滚滚大熊市。为什么是这一天?是什么导致十几年的美股大牛市戛然而止?导火索是什么?答:11月22日,美股开盘时分,一则鲍威尔连任的BREAKING NEWS传遍华尔街和全世界。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$</a> 火箭般飙升,但在开盘45分钟之后,便一头栽下去了,从此纳指的命运彻底转变了……鸽王连任不是好事吗?为何市场不买账?仅仅“高兴”了45分钟就“集体叛变”了?前因后果说来很复杂,但可以简单总结一下:在此之前,通胀已经远高于2%的目标,但鲍威尔大概是为了顺利连任,每次都说“通胀是暂时的”,市场便仍然很勉强的继续看涨,以至于本来9月7日就应该已经见顶了的纳指,硬是“又续了一命”,再拉了一波至11月19日,即白宫宣布新的美联储主席的前一天;而此时11月的CPI通胀已飙升至6.2%,市场很难再相信鲍威尔的“通胀暂时论”,也更有理由担心鲍威尔会因为“位子稳了”而开始大变脸,于是在一致性预期之下,“卖事实”,纳指开始崩盘了。而鲍威尔也真的开始转变态度了,缩水、加息、缩表,一件件的提上了日程表。正印证了那句“我预期了你的预期”,然后“你按照我的预期执行”?有点意思。人总是有私心的,但公道自在人心。在22Q1财报季初期,纳指快速下跌至13000点附近。再叠加俄","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 的历史最高收盘价,即“千年大顶”,暂时定格在了2021年11月19日周五16057.44点,这也是纳指历史上唯一一次收盘高于16000点,也许正因为物极必反,下一个周一11月22日,纳指便掉头向下,开始了至今长达5个多月,甚至可能会持续更久的滚滚大熊市。为什么是这一天?是什么导致十几年的美股大牛市戛然而止?导火索是什么?答:11月22日,美股开盘时分,一则鲍威尔连任的BREAKING NEWS传遍华尔街和全世界。$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 火箭般飙升,但在开盘45分钟之后,便一头栽下去了,从此纳指的命运彻底转变了……鸽王连任不是好事吗?为何市场不买账?仅仅“高兴”了45分钟就“集体叛变”了?前因后果说来很复杂,但可以简单总结一下:在此之前,通胀已经远高于2%的目标,但鲍威尔大概是为了顺利连任,每次都说“通胀是暂时的”,市场便仍然很勉强的继续看涨,以至于本来9月7日就应该已经见顶了的纳指,硬是“又续了一命”,再拉了一波至11月19日,即白宫宣布新的美联储主席的前一天;而此时11月的CPI通胀已飙升至6.2%,市场很难再相信鲍威尔的“通胀暂时论”,也更有理由担心鲍威尔会因为“位子稳了”而开始大变脸,于是在一致性预期之下,“卖事实”,纳指开始崩盘了。而鲍威尔也真的开始转变态度了,缩水、加息、缩表,一件件的提上了日程表。正印证了那句“我预期了你的预期”,然后“你按照我的预期执行”?有点意思。人总是有私心的,但公道自在人心。在22Q1财报季初期,纳指快速下跌至13000点附近。再叠加俄","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88e502321f917bc9108e59db34a8e55f","width":"632","height":"306"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad881feadec350a0f86e4732fba0464","width":"632","height":"452"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e610813365d852b6b70aa8b0bd647739","width":"632","height":"500"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":24,"commentSize":43,"repostSize":18,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616716148","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3465560381212459","authorId":"3465560381212459","name":"bianjianbao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d544156965377f2ef4d6c2c36b5ea747","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3465560381212459","authorIdStr":"3465560381212459"},"content":"相信纳指还未真正见底,因为加息缩表才刚刚开始,其破坏力还未到达巅峰,微软还未暴雷,苹果从纳指千年大顶以来更是只跌了1.77%也就挠挠痒,这俩不实质性的暴雷下跌,纳指恐怕是难以言底。这俩再跌一段,纳指跌到第4个区间,也许大概就是真的底部了。","text":"相信纳指还未真正见底,因为加息缩表才刚刚开始,其破坏力还未到达巅峰,微软还未暴雷,苹果从纳指千年大顶以来更是只跌了1.77%也就挠挠痒,这俩不实质性的暴雷下跌,纳指恐怕是难以言底。这俩再跌一段,纳指跌到第4个区间,也许大概就是真的底部了。","html":"相信纳指还未真正见底,因为加息缩表才刚刚开始,其破坏力还未到达巅峰,微软还未暴雷,苹果从纳指千年大顶以来更是只跌了1.77%也就挠挠痒,这俩不实质性的暴雷下跌,纳指恐怕是难以言底。这俩再跌一段,纳指跌到第4个区间,也许大概就是真的底部了。"},{"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"content":"货币政策、汇率、国债、股市,全面崩盘!全球经济危机正式爆发! ①.美联储加息缩表,2000年以来最大的加息幅度,1980年以来最激进的缩表力度 ②.美元创20年来新高,人民币从4月19日连续21天贬值5.9% ③.美国10年期国债收益率突破3%,超过中国 ④.美股大崩盘,纳指跌破12000,标普跌破4000","text":"货币政策、汇率、国债、股市,全面崩盘!全球经济危机正式爆发! ①.美联储加息缩表,2000年以来最大的加息幅度,1980年以来最激进的缩表力度 ②.美元创20年来新高,人民币从4月19日连续21天贬值5.9% ③.美国10年期国债收益率突破3%,超过中国 ④.美股大崩盘,纳指跌破12000,标普跌破4000","html":"货币政策、汇率、国债、股市,全面崩盘!全球经济危机正式爆发! ①.美联储加息缩表,2000年以来最大的加息幅度,1980年以来最激进的缩表力度 ②.美元创20年来新高,人民币从4月19日连续21天贬值5.9% ③.美国10年期国债收益率突破3%,超过中国 ④.美股大崩盘,纳指跌破12000,标普跌破4000"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":312325266,"gmtCreate":1612037021055,"gmtModify":1703757501689,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>光是GME的call就有120亿,而盈透的现金只有90亿。如果天天像这么拉升,那些做空的机构基金、以及罗宾汉盈透这样的券商,都有倒闭的风险,而且即使倒闭了也得付钱,因为期权是合约,必须履行,机构基金们没钱付,券商就得兜底掏钱,所以券商们不得不对散户限购,机构们必须靠抛售其它股票来补充保证金。股市持续大跌,流动性危机,束手无策?浓浓的股灾也许即将来临……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>光是GME的call就有120亿,而盈透的现金只有90亿。如果天天像这么拉升,那些做空的机构基金、以及罗宾汉盈透这样的券商,都有倒闭的风险,而且即使倒闭了也得付钱,因为期权是合约,必须履行,机构基金们没钱付,券商就得兜底掏钱,所以券商们不得不对散户限购,机构们必须靠抛售其它股票来补充保证金。股市持续大跌,流动性危机,束手无策?浓浓的股灾也许即将来临……","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$$黑莓(BB)$$AMC院线(AMC)$$苹果(AAPL)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$光是GME的call就有120亿,而盈透的现金只有90亿。如果天天像这么拉升,那些做空的机构基金、以及罗宾汉盈透这样的券商,都有倒闭的风险,而且即使倒闭了也得付钱,因为期权是合约,必须履行,机构基金们没钱付,券商就得兜底掏钱,所以券商们不得不对散户限购,机构们必须靠抛售其它股票来补充保证金。股市持续大跌,流动性危机,束手无策?浓浓的股灾也许即将来临……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":52,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312325266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563140991934227","authorIdStr":"3563140991934227"},"content":"call 是权利,不是义务。 可以被放弃。用call的规模来衡量,最多表示一个人气。菜市场大妈水平的,网红带货而已。 炒空气币的套路。 怎么证明空气币有价值, 给脑残晒 炒空气币 争了千万刀, 脑残粉就跟上了。 [喷血] 美国历史上 垃圾股,垃圾债。爆炒 不是第一次。三个月后见。","text":"call 是权利,不是义务。 可以被放弃。用call的规模来衡量,最多表示一个人气。菜市场大妈水平的,网红带货而已。 炒空气币的套路。 怎么证明空气币有价值, 给脑残晒 炒空气币 争了千万刀, 脑残粉就跟上了。 [喷血] 美国历史上 垃圾股,垃圾债。爆炒 不是第一次。三个月后见。","html":"call 是权利,不是义务。 可以被放弃。用call的规模来衡量,最多表示一个人气。菜市场大妈水平的,网红带货而已。 炒空气币的套路。 怎么证明空气币有价值, 给脑残晒 炒空气币 争了千万刀, 脑残粉就跟上了。 [喷血] 美国历史上 垃圾股,垃圾债。爆炒 不是第一次。三个月后见。"},{"author":{"id":"3551259808709279","authorId":"3551259808709279","name":"Yipeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc58bf8f3b322d07a6758926774de30","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3551259808709279","authorIdStr":"3551259808709279"},"content":"这就是de-grossing gme做空规模不足以直接引发崩盘 但会让很多机构的算法选择提早出售蓝筹股 对泡沫化的指数形成回调压力 也是好事 市场一直在等待回调信号 美联储不敢发让这个事件发 泡沫到期了随便一点小事都会促发获利盘离场","text":"这就是de-grossing gme做空规模不足以直接引发崩盘 但会让很多机构的算法选择提早出售蓝筹股 对泡沫化的指数形成回调压力 也是好事 市场一直在等待回调信号 美联储不敢发让这个事件发 泡沫到期了随便一点小事都会促发获利盘离场","html":"这就是de-grossing gme做空规模不足以直接引发崩盘 但会让很多机构的算法选择提早出售蓝筹股 对泡沫化的指数形成回调压力 也是好事 市场一直在等待回调信号 美联储不敢发让这个事件发 泡沫到期了随便一点小事都会促发获利盘离场"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":90338,"gmtCreate":1504004440655,"gmtModify":1704880755061,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"在股市里挣到钱了的,举个手看一下","htmlText":"炒股1个多月以来,曾经血亏20个点,至今徘徊在不赚不亏的样子。炒股真的很累,不仅消耗时间精力,而且到处都是坑,错一步都会错很远。#中概股血崩#$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微博(WB)$ $好未来(TAL)$$易车网(BITA)$ $京东(JD)$ $网易(NTES)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $陌陌(MOMO)$ $迅雷(XNET)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $58同城(WUBA)$","listText":"炒股1个多月以来,曾经血亏20个点,至今徘徊在不赚不亏的样子。炒股真的很累,不仅消耗时间精力,而且到处都是坑,错一步都会错很远。#中概股血崩#$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微博(WB)$ $好未来(TAL)$$易车网(BITA)$ $京东(JD)$ $网易(NTES)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $陌陌(MOMO)$ $迅雷(XNET)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $58同城(WUBA)$","text":"炒股1个多月以来,曾经血亏20个点,至今徘徊在不赚不亏的样子。炒股真的很累,不仅消耗时间精力,而且到处都是坑,错一步都会错很远。#中概股血崩#$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微博(WB)$ $好未来(TAL)$$易车网(BITA)$ $京东(JD)$ $网易(NTES)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $陌陌(MOMO)$ $迅雷(XNET)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $58同城(WUBA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":50,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/90338","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"106859762886660","authorId":"106859762886660","name":"学未来","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c21a2e3473afcf9c2231b997039acd96","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"106859762886660","authorIdStr":"106859762886660"},"content":"利润深圳一套房,本金房子首付","text":"利润深圳一套房,本金房子首付","html":"利润深圳一套房,本金房子首付"},{"author":{"id":"387611620380","authorId":"387611620380","name":"gugu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/tiger_upload_file_1449509381.png","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"387611620380","authorIdStr":"387611620380"},"content":"之前只玩港股和a股,15年中开始玩美股,入陌陌私有化的坑,加上心态不好,最多的时候亏了1万,把本都快亏没了。 16年下半年开始回本,共挣了4万不到。1)心态很重要;2)寻找适合自己的策略,独立思考;3)想要稳定收益,不断学习。之前看过5-6本,回头看都是垃圾。今年开始先看《穷查理宝典》、巴菲特股东信,最近开始接触彼得林奇《成功投资》。书不在多,好书值得读10遍。","text":"之前只玩港股和a股,15年中开始玩美股,入陌陌私有化的坑,加上心态不好,最多的时候亏了1万,把本都快亏没了。 16年下半年开始回本,共挣了4万不到。1)心态很重要;2)寻找适合自己的策略,独立思考;3)想要稳定收益,不断学习。之前看过5-6本,回头看都是垃圾。今年开始先看《穷查理宝典》、巴菲特股东信,最近开始接触彼得林奇《成功投资》。书不在多,好书值得读10遍。","html":"之前只玩港股和a股,15年中开始玩美股,入陌陌私有化的坑,加上心态不好,最多的时候亏了1万,把本都快亏没了。 16年下半年开始回本,共挣了4万不到。1)心态很重要;2)寻找适合自己的策略,独立思考;3)想要稳定收益,不断学习。之前看过5-6本,回头看都是垃圾。今年开始先看《穷查理宝典》、巴菲特股东信,最近开始接触彼得林奇《成功投资》。书不在多,好书值得读10遍。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":617560431,"gmtCreate":1654509779125,"gmtModify":1704859569000,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>","listText":"中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>","text":"中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$$恒生指数(HSI)$$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$$上证指数(000001.SH)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22c3c14b0cf37911130454ef0e25bb33","width":"1080","height":"2176"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":13,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617560431","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"content":"有史以来最大的牛市!! 中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点 $上证指数(000001.SH)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$ $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$","text":"有史以来最大的牛市!! 中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点 $上证指数(000001.SH)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$ $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$","html":"有史以来最大的牛市!! 中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点 $上证指数(000001.SH)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$ $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$"},{"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"content":"疯狂的绞肉机! 中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点 $恒生指数(HSI)$ $恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ $上证指数(000001.SH)$ $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$","text":"疯狂的绞肉机! 中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点 $恒生指数(HSI)$ $恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ $上证指数(000001.SH)$ $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$","html":"疯狂的绞肉机! 中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点 $恒生指数(HSI)$ $恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ $上证指数(000001.SH)$ $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638188836,"gmtCreate":1645131608182,"gmtModify":1645220146783,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>2021年11月22日,是纳斯达克的千年大顶,为什么是这一天?因为这一天发生了一件大事,鲍威尔成功连任了美联储主席,而他对于通胀的态度也从此发生了180度大转弯,之前每天闭着眼睛喊“通胀是暂时的”,之后每天恶狠狠的叫嚣“7月之前要加息100点,加息2%才能真正抑制这40年来最高的通胀”而股市的大幅下跌也是必然会发生的,只是早晚的问题,0利率持续了接近2年,股市也狂飙了接近2年,总有曲终人散的时候,当初涨的有多疯狂,如今今后就会跌的多疯狂,莫怪拔D无情问题是:当初为何一步就到了0利率为什么不克制一下?为何不早一些缩债加息缩表否则何至于如今这40年来最高的通胀?股市也就不会如此的狂涨狂跌,而成长股更是已经跌回了0利率之前的水平,过山车而很多人,20年大赚,21又亏回去了,22年恐怕是要倒亏了,图啥?黄粱美梦一场空,空悲切!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ </a><a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$2021年11月22日,是纳斯达克的千年大顶,为什么是这一天?因为这一天发生了一件大事,鲍威尔成功连任了美联储主席,而他对于通胀的态度也从此发生了180度大转弯,之前每天闭着眼睛喊“通胀是暂时的”,之后每天恶狠狠的叫嚣“7月之前要加息100点,加息2%才能真正抑制这40年来最高的通胀”而股市的大幅下跌也是必然会发生的,只是早晚的问题,0利率持续了接近2年,股市也狂飙了接近2年,总有曲终人散的时候,当初涨的有多疯狂,如今今后就会跌的多疯狂,莫怪拔D无情问题是:当初为何一步就到了0利率为什么不克制一下?为何不早一些缩债加息缩表否则何至于如今这40年来最高的通胀?股市也就不会如此的狂涨狂跌,而成长股更是已经跌回了0利率之前的水平,过山车而很多人,20年大赚,21又亏回去了,22年恐怕是要倒亏了,图啥?黄粱美梦一场空,空悲切!$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ $苹果(AAPL)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$英伟达(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638188836","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3435833029586381","authorId":"3435833029586381","name":"不要频繁操作","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ae4237c9360e696c393389c7df4873","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3435833029586381","authorIdStr":"3435833029586381"},"content":"千年有点长","text":"千年有点长","html":"千年有点长"},{"author":{"id":"83907503769096","authorId":"83907503769096","name":"一直喝一直爽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00cdd1db43956081977a445d3c388f1e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"83907503769096","authorIdStr":"83907503769096"},"content":"但是还是三不走:天不亮不走,人不散不走,钱不干不走","text":"但是还是三不走:天不亮不走,人不散不走,钱不干不走","html":"但是还是三不走:天不亮不走,人不散不走,钱不干不走"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":894310215,"gmtCreate":1628801855937,"gmtModify":1628834586071,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 19 26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872d62b52bc24d392619a9db00f4808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>一般的,正常的中大型股票,当股价极速大幅飙升之后,比如去年8月底和今年2月中旬,会有较长的回落震荡期,2~4周很正常,主力不可能很快又拉上去帮你解套的,但一般中间会有所反弹,除了这种小庄股小meme股按摩店是不是小庄股?恐怕大家深有体会按摩店是不是meme股?GME、AMC感受过吧?涨的时候一阵风,跌的时候一路阴跌到忍无可忍,按摩店是不是也符合这种特征?连个反弹都不弹一下珍爱生命远离按摩店,尤其不要做短期的期权<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>一般的,正常的中大型股票,当股价极速大幅飙升之后,比如去年8月底和今年2月中旬,会有较长的回落震荡期,2~4周很正常,主力不可能很快又拉上去帮你解套的,但一般中间会有所反弹,除了这种小庄股小meme股按摩店是不是小庄股?恐怕大家深有体会按摩店是不是meme股?GME、AMC感受过吧?涨的时候一阵风,跌的时候一路阴跌到忍无可忍,按摩店是不是也符合这种特征?连个反弹都不弹一下珍爱生命远离按摩店,尤其不要做短期的期权<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a>","text":"$AMD(AMD)$一般的,正常的中大型股票,当股价极速大幅飙升之后,比如去年8月底和今年2月中旬,会有较长的回落震荡期,2~4周很正常,主力不可能很快又拉上去帮你解套的,但一般中间会有所反弹,除了这种小庄股小meme股按摩店是不是小庄股?恐怕大家深有体会按摩店是不是meme股?GME、AMC感受过吧?涨的时候一阵风,跌的时候一路阴跌到忍无可忍,按摩店是不是也符合这种特征?连个反弹都不弹一下珍爱生命远离按摩店,尤其不要做短期的期权$英伟达(NVDA)$$美光科技(MU)$$英特尔(INTC)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf23626c18c8c6dcf9167a18821513bb","width":"1080","height":"2074"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894310215","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274732372511","authorId":"3479274732372511","name":"黄老怪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d01265730fbb9a0b9e195d51c4c1680","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274732372511","authorIdStr":"3479274732372511"},"content":"AMD我还是长期看好的,从产品就能看得出来,越来越好了","text":"AMD我还是长期看好的,从产品就能看得出来,越来越好了","html":"AMD我还是长期看好的,从产品就能看得出来,越来越好了"},{"author":{"id":"3479274801441208","authorId":"3479274801441208","name":"短线机遇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feeb9ebdd15bf88ae330659d935954fe","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274801441208","authorIdStr":"3479274801441208"},"content":"请问博主对对于英特尔的中短期有什么看法?","text":"请问博主对对于英特尔的中短期有什么看法?","html":"请问博主对对于英特尔的中短期有什么看法?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":109732540,"gmtCreate":1619726490880,"gmtModify":1619787529880,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 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好像我真的错了,我这么穷是有道理的!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":42,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/88741","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464651797650675","authorId":"3464651797650675","name":"宝贝嘟嘟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3464651797650675","authorIdStr":"3464651797650675"},"content":"真的越来越看不懂,baba就不说了,摊子大,横向扩张的帅,利润好,预期和利润都有,wb呢?2-3亿一个Q,传统的广告收入,横向没看到有啥特别的动作,唯独就是垄断短文社交,看看FB,利润高10倍一个Q,再加上并购和不要脸的抄袭,和腾讯比比也就差个王者荣耀了,看看今年才涨了多少?怎么感觉wb都是有坑。。。。","text":"真的越来越看不懂,baba就不说了,摊子大,横向扩张的帅,利润好,预期和利润都有,wb呢?2-3亿一个Q,传统的广告收入,横向没看到有啥特别的动作,唯独就是垄断短文社交,看看FB,利润高10倍一个Q,再加上并购和不要脸的抄袭,和腾讯比比也就差个王者荣耀了,看看今年才涨了多少?怎么感觉wb都是有坑。。。。","html":"真的越来越看不懂,baba就不说了,摊子大,横向扩张的帅,利润好,预期和利润都有,wb呢?2-3亿一个Q,传统的广告收入,横向没看到有啥特别的动作,唯独就是垄断短文社交,看看FB,利润高10倍一个Q,再加上并购和不要脸的抄袭,和腾讯比比也就差个王者荣耀了,看看今年才涨了多少?怎么感觉wb都是有坑。。。。"},{"author":{"id":"10538173771684","authorId":"10538173771684","name":"Fany","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7763b812b02c905082d9ee5be453dfc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10538173771684","authorIdStr":"10538173771684"},"content":"牛市里中概涨的凶,熊市里跌的也凶。","text":"牛市里中概涨的凶,熊市里跌的也凶。","html":"牛市里中概涨的凶,熊市里跌的也凶。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":195066959839472,"gmtCreate":1688630787753,"gmtModify":1688630788890,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"2017 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谈论窝轮的所谓大V,全部拉黑就对了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195066959839472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458252904483804","authorId":"3458252904483804","name":"后复权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3458252904483804","authorIdStr":"3458252904483804"},"content":"现在港股也有期权了,还玩啥牛熊涡轮","text":"现在港股也有期权了,还玩啥牛熊涡轮","html":"现在港股也有期权了,还玩啥牛熊涡轮"},{"author":{"id":"3458252904483804","authorId":"3458252904483804","name":"后复权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3458252904483804","authorIdStr":"3458252904483804"},"content":"不知道为啥压根就不想了解牛熊涡轮","text":"不知道为啥压根就不想了解牛熊涡轮","html":"不知道为啥压根就不想了解牛熊涡轮"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}