T20211213723的个人主页 - 老虎社区

T20211213723

T20211213723

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IP属地：北京

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0勋章

2019-02-19

$AMD(AMD)$ 一起讨论下，为啥市场会给amd这么高的估值

2020-02-11

$AMD(AMD)$ 越来越看不懂这票了，股票每年都增发，账上现金流也不健康，产品落地也总不及预期，偏偏涨起来猛的不行

2019-11-07

$AMD(AMD)$ 大家认为AMD需要多少增长率，才可以撑起来目前的市值？

2019-08-11

$百度(BIDU)$ 不乐观呀

2019-02-07

$AMD(AMD)$坚决看多amd，难得的抄底机会

2018-12-06

给大家看一段和客户的对话，看看大家啥想法

2019-08-07

由此可见，百度的名字取的很有远见$百度(BIDU)$

2019-09-24

$百度(BIDU)$ 今天还跌，厉害了

2020-01-02

$S&P500 ETF(SPY)$ 美股这怕不是喝多了？

2019-04-21

$AMD(AMD)$ q1预期eps 0.02再不下来说不过去了吧

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09:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"百度，除了利润都是浮云","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197050130","media":"虎嗅","summary":"2020年2月28日，百度$(BIDU)$发布了2019年Q4及全年业绩。Q4营收、净利润分别为289亿和50.5亿，净利润同比增加789%。\n2019年Q4财报公布后，百度走出一根中阳线，收盘价对应","content":"<p>2020年2月28日，百度<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$(BIDU)$</a>发布了2019年Q4及全年业绩。Q4营收、净利润分别为289亿和50.5亿，净利润同比增加789%。</p>\n<p>2019年Q4财报公布后，百度走出一根中阳线，收盘价对应市值416亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>营收结构演变进行时</b></p>\n<p>由于实体经济增速放缓对广告行业的负面影响，2019年Q1、Q2营收同比增速分别为15.4%和1.4%。Q3营收280.8亿，同比下降0.4%（<span>剔除已剥离业务</span>）。Q4营收289亿，同比增长6.2%，重新回到上升通道。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1222d8798fd326d859e6a6a19cc9349c\"></p>\n<p>百度将营收分为两大块——“线上营销”及“其它收入”。“线上营销”即广告收入，主要来自大搜及爱奇艺，“其它收入”包括爱奇艺会员费、百度云等。</p>\n<p>近年百度线上营销收入（<span>即广告费</span>）占比下降，多元化趋势明显：2016年Q1，广告收入占总营收的94%；2018年Q1降至82%；2019年Q1降至73%。2019年Q4，线上营销、其它收入分别为208亿和81亿，广告收入占比72%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b0ad7c4c12987b96a6bbacac700ff6\"></p>\n<p>2019年Q4，百度“其它收入”达81亿，同比增长35.4%，爱奇艺付费会员业务是主要因素。</p>\n<p>爱奇艺营收按金额依次为：付费会员、广告、内容分发等业务，合计约占百度营收的四分之一。</p>\n<p>2019年12月末，爱奇艺付费会员突破1亿，全年会费收入144.7亿，同比增长36.2%。2019年H2，付费会员业务收入占比超过50%。</p>\n<p>2019年，爱奇艺广告收入82.9亿，同比下降11.2%。2019年，爱奇艺内容分发、其它收入（<span>如天象互娱的游戏业务</span>）分别为25.2亿、37.7亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1927520a47f86f820dab5c31a882b711\"></p>\n<p>从百度线上营销收入中剔除爱奇艺广告收入，“线上营销*”约等于“大搜”收入；从百度其它收入中剔除爱奇艺会员、分发及其它收入后，“其它收入*”主要来自云计算和AI商业化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4268f60dc2d051618e0759c6760c6e73\"></p>\n<p>2018年以来，大搜业务季度收入在150亿至200亿间性波动。2019年，除第一季度外，各季收入均低于2018年同期；全年收入698亿，同比下降3.8%。大搜业务仍然是“现金牛”，但增长已逼近极限，且受经济景气程度制约。</p>\n<p>2019年，“其它收入*”（<span>百度地图、阿波罗自动驾驶、鸿鹄芯片、昆仑芯片、小度音箱等</span>）总额85.6亿，同比增长81.2%。</p>\n<p>2015年百度营收中约有95%来自大搜业务的广告收入。</p>\n<p>2019年大搜、爱奇艺广告收入分别为699亿和83亿，合计占总营收的72.7%；爱奇艺会员收入145亿、合计占总营收的13.5%；其余13.8%来自云计算、AI商业化。</p>\n<p><b>四年间，大搜业务收入占比从95%降至67%。百度营收结构的变化还将持续下去。</b></p>\n<p><b>求人不如求己的绝地反击</b></p>\n<p>百度毛利润率曾经长期保持在60%以上。2018年Q4，百度毛利润率跌至42.6%，经营利润仅为11.1亿，同比下降77%；2019年Q1跌至38.5%，经营亏损9.36亿。</p>\n<p>2019年Q1出现上市以来首个季度亏损，Q2营收增速跌至个位数。不到半年，百度股价从180美元以上跌至100美元以下。</p>\n<p>2019年Q4，经营利润46.6亿，“蓝筹百度”又回来了。</p>\n<p>绝地反击的关键有两点：<b>毛利润率回升，费用率被有效控制。</b></p>\n<p>1）毛利润率回升靠内部挖潜</p>\n<p>2019年Q4的毛利润率为46.3%，比Q1高7.8个百分点。大家都知道爱奇艺高昂的内容成本拖累了百度，但此番毛利润率回升却与爱奇艺无关。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0e4debe3b5af034b578269013dd1fb\"></p>\n<p>2019年Q1，爱奇艺内容成本53亿，占百度营收成本的35.7%，百度毛利润率为38.5%；2019年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本57亿，占百度营收成本的36.7%，百度毛利润率为46.3%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a568088104580de004cbf75b9eda648f\"></p>\n<p><b>爱奇艺是推动百度营收增长的主要动力，压缩内容成本“副作用”显而易见，百度靠“内部挖潜”使毛利润率回到45%以上，难能可贵。</b></p>\n<p>2）控制费用率</p>\n<p>2019年Q1，毛利润跌破100亿至93亿，费用合计102亿，破天荒地出现9.4亿经营亏损。</p>\n<p>随后三个季度，百度在保持研发投入同时，着力压缩市场及行政费用。2019年Q1、Q4研发费用分别为41.7亿和47.6亿，市场及行政费用分别为60.5亿和39.4亿。Q4研发费用增加5.9亿，市场及行政费用费用减少21.1亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2837baeabad03d95ea2a69374c2db86\"></p>\n<p>将图中数据全换成百分数，看得更明白：毛利润率从2018年Q2的54%下降到2019年Q1的38%。同期，市场及行政、研发费率合计上涨9个百分点，结果经营亏损3.9%。</p>\n<p>2019年Q4，毛利润率回升到46%，费用率合计下降12个百分点，经营利润率16.1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9926125add21b9fc63941619e3b77b\"></p>\n<p>想当年赚钱容易，舒服日子过惯了。如今想压缩成本、控制费用就是“反人性”，有可能会“犯众怒”，遭遇“非暴利不合作”。比如新东方，纵观其历史，其市场费用、行政费用加起来动不动就占营收的40%、50%，而且刚性十足、怎么也压不下来。</p>\n<p><b>外不卡爱奇艺脖子，内不饿研发肚子，十几个点的经营利润率不算高，但得之不易。</b></p>\n<p><b>江湖地位</b></p>\n<p>百度很在意BAT身份，当新秀有赶超苗头时难免焦虑。</p>\n<p>既然资本市场看中增长，百度就着力保持“高速增长”，以免市值“掉队”。直到2019年Q1出现单季经营亏损，股价大幅下挫，<b>百度才明白“只盯GMV、无视巨亏损的投资都去炒PDD了”，百度上市15年吸引的是“蓝筹爱好者”</b><span>（注：过往四个季度，PDD经营亏损133亿）</span>。</p>\n<p>当京东、美团、拼多多、网易、小米纷纷超越或接近，百度心态反而放松了。说白了就是“虱子多了不咬人”。</p>\n<p><b>从2019年下半年的业绩来看，百度已摆脱市值焦虑——增速高可喜、市值高可贺，但与赚到手的真金白银相比，那些都是浮云。</b></p>\n<p>不知从何时开始，BAT的提及频次也已大不如前，但百度“江湖地位”不应小觑。</p>\n<p>评价互联网公司，市值是最方便的指标，认识阿拉伯数字就行。但市值不是唯一，更不是最重要的指标，比如互联网服务收入、自有流量。</p>\n<p><b>中国互联网服务收入达到千亿的公司只有三家，这就是所谓的BAT。</b></p>\n<p>在可比的四个季度（<span>2018Q4、2019Q1~Q3</span>），百度营收1057亿、美团营收892亿、网易营收716亿、京东互联网服务收入598亿、拼多多营收250亿、小米互联网服务收入182亿……与百度有较大差距。</p>\n<p>石油巨头炫耀年产X亿桶原油、钢铁大王骄傲的是产量达到Y千万吨。互联网公司做的是流量生意，自有流量是王道。阿里不需要腾讯倒流、腾讯不会向百度买流量，这是BAT成为“三极”的根本原因。百度市值落后于AT，不是自有流量不够多，而是线上营销“天花板”低。好在线上营销收入占比已降至70%一线。</p>\n<p><b>按照收入、自有流量两个指标，百度仍是中国互联网“三极”之一。</b></p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n百度，除了利润都是浮云\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-03 09:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/342175.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2020年2月28日，百度$(BIDU)$发布了2019年Q4及全年业绩。Q4营收、净利润分别为289亿和50.5亿，净利润同比增加789%。\n2019年Q4财报公布后，百度走出一根中阳线，收盘价对应市值416亿美元。\n营收结构演变进行时\n由于实体经济增速放缓对广告行业的负面影响，2019年Q1、Q2营收同比增速分别为15.4%和1.4%。Q3营收280.8亿，同比下降0.4%（剔除已剥离业务）。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/342175.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c9083ea560ad849832bc28e4921bb34","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/342175.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197050130","content_text":"2020年2月28日，百度$(BIDU)$发布了2019年Q4及全年业绩。Q4营收、净利润分别为289亿和50.5亿，净利润同比增加789%。\n2019年Q4财报公布后，百度走出一根中阳线，收盘价对应市值416亿美元。\n营收结构演变进行时\n由于实体经济增速放缓对广告行业的负面影响，2019年Q1、Q2营收同比增速分别为15.4%和1.4%。Q3营收280.8亿，同比下降0.4%（剔除已剥离业务）。Q4营收289亿，同比增长6.2%，重新回到上升通道。\n\n百度将营收分为两大块——“线上营销”及“其它收入”。“线上营销”即广告收入，主要来自大搜及爱奇艺，“其它收入”包括爱奇艺会员费、百度云等。\n近年百度线上营销收入（即广告费）占比下降，多元化趋势明显：2016年Q1，广告收入占总营收的94%；2018年Q1降至82%；2019年Q1降至73%。2019年Q4，线上营销、其它收入分别为208亿和81亿，广告收入占比72%。\n\n2019年Q4，百度“其它收入”达81亿，同比增长35.4%，爱奇艺付费会员业务是主要因素。\n爱奇艺营收按金额依次为：付费会员、广告、内容分发等业务，合计约占百度营收的四分之一。\n2019年12月末，爱奇艺付费会员突破1亿，全年会费收入144.7亿，同比增长36.2%。2019年H2，付费会员业务收入占比超过50%。\n2019年，爱奇艺广告收入82.9亿，同比下降11.2%。2019年，爱奇艺内容分发、其它收入（如天象互娱的游戏业务）分别为25.2亿、37.7亿。\n\n从百度线上营销收入中剔除爱奇艺广告收入，“线上营销*”约等于“大搜”收入；从百度其它收入中剔除爱奇艺会员、分发及其它收入后，“其它收入*”主要来自云计算和AI商业化。\n\n2018年以来，大搜业务季度收入在150亿至200亿间性波动。2019年，除第一季度外，各季收入均低于2018年同期；全年收入698亿，同比下降3.8%。大搜业务仍然是“现金牛”，但增长已逼近极限，且受经济景气程度制约。\n2019年，“其它收入*”（百度地图、阿波罗自动驾驶、鸿鹄芯片、昆仑芯片、小度音箱等）总额85.6亿，同比增长81.2%。\n2015年百度营收中约有95%来自大搜业务的广告收入。\n2019年大搜、爱奇艺广告收入分别为699亿和83亿，合计占总营收的72.7%；爱奇艺会员收入145亿、合计占总营收的13.5%；其余13.8%来自云计算、AI商业化。\n四年间，大搜业务收入占比从95%降至67%。百度营收结构的变化还将持续下去。\n求人不如求己的绝地反击\n百度毛利润率曾经长期保持在60%以上。2018年Q4，百度毛利润率跌至42.6%，经营利润仅为11.1亿，同比下降77%；2019年Q1跌至38.5%，经营亏损9.36亿。\n2019年Q1出现上市以来首个季度亏损，Q2营收增速跌至个位数。不到半年，百度股价从180美元以上跌至100美元以下。\n2019年Q4，经营利润46.6亿，“蓝筹百度”又回来了。\n绝地反击的关键有两点：毛利润率回升，费用率被有效控制。\n1）毛利润率回升靠内部挖潜\n2019年Q4的毛利润率为46.3%，比Q1高7.8个百分点。大家都知道爱奇艺高昂的内容成本拖累了百度，但此番毛利润率回升却与爱奇艺无关。\n\n2019年Q1，爱奇艺内容成本53亿，占百度营收成本的35.7%，百度毛利润率为38.5%；2019年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本57亿，占百度营收成本的36.7%，百度毛利润率为46.3%。\n\n爱奇艺是推动百度营收增长的主要动力，压缩内容成本“副作用”显而易见，百度靠“内部挖潜”使毛利润率回到45%以上，难能可贵。\n2）控制费用率\n2019年Q1，毛利润跌破100亿至93亿，费用合计102亿，破天荒地出现9.4亿经营亏损。\n随后三个季度，百度在保持研发投入同时，着力压缩市场及行政费用。2019年Q1、Q4研发费用分别为41.7亿和47.6亿，市场及行政费用分别为60.5亿和39.4亿。Q4研发费用增加5.9亿，市场及行政费用费用减少21.1亿。\n\n将图中数据全换成百分数，看得更明白：毛利润率从2018年Q2的54%下降到2019年Q1的38%。同期，市场及行政、研发费率合计上涨9个百分点，结果经营亏损3.9%。\n2019年Q4，毛利润率回升到46%，费用率合计下降12个百分点，经营利润率16.1%。\n\n想当年赚钱容易，舒服日子过惯了。如今想压缩成本、控制费用就是“反人性”，有可能会“犯众怒”，遭遇“非暴利不合作”。比如新东方，纵观其历史，其市场费用、行政费用加起来动不动就占营收的40%、50%，而且刚性十足、怎么也压不下来。\n外不卡爱奇艺脖子，内不饿研发肚子，十几个点的经营利润率不算高，但得之不易。\n江湖地位\n百度很在意BAT身份，当新秀有赶超苗头时难免焦虑。\n既然资本市场看中增长，百度就着力保持“高速增长”，以免市值“掉队”。直到2019年Q1出现单季经营亏损，股价大幅下挫，百度才明白“只盯GMV、无视巨亏损的投资都去炒PDD了”，百度上市15年吸引的是“蓝筹爱好者”（注：过往四个季度，PDD经营亏损133亿）。\n当京东、美团、拼多多、网易、小米纷纷超越或接近，百度心态反而放松了。说白了就是“虱子多了不咬人”。\n从2019年下半年的业绩来看，百度已摆脱市值焦虑——增速高可喜、市值高可贺，但与赚到手的真金白银相比，那些都是浮云。\n不知从何时开始，BAT的提及频次也已大不如前，但百度“江湖地位”不应小觑。\n评价互联网公司，市值是最方便的指标，认识阿拉伯数字就行。但市值不是唯一，更不是最重要的指标，比如互联网服务收入、自有流量。\n中国互联网服务收入达到千亿的公司只有三家，这就是所谓的BAT。\n在可比的四个季度（2018Q4、2019Q1~Q3），百度营收1057亿、美团营收892亿、网易营收716亿、京东互联网服务收入598亿、拼多多营收250亿、小米互联网服务收入182亿……与百度有较大差距。\n石油巨头炫耀年产X亿桶原油、钢铁大王骄傲的是产量达到Y千万吨。互联网公司做的是流量生意，自有流量是王道。阿里不需要腾讯倒流、腾讯不会向百度买流量，这是BAT成为“三极”的根本原因。百度市值落后于AT，不是自有流量不够多，而是线上营销“天花板”低。好在线上营销收入占比已降至70%一线。\n按照收入、自有流量两个指标，百度仍是中国互联网“三极”之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":914493165,"gmtCreate":1581431923557,"gmtModify":1704344142865,"author":{"id":"3464634798440233","authorId":"3464634798440233","name":"T20211213723","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5eca4b7482eadf11553036d7674cbbd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464634798440233","authorIdStr":"3464634798440233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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美股这怕不是喝多了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911914909","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":913087261,"gmtCreate":1577114889753,"gmtModify":1704335282151,"author":{"id":"3464634798440233","authorId":"3464634798440233","name":"T20211213723","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5eca4b7482eadf11553036d7674cbbd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464634798440233","authorIdStr":"3464634798440233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;过分了，涨的有点多了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;过分了，涨的有点多了","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 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