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东大门
2023-01-25
$量子之歌(QSG)$
这垃圾公司还能上市成功,不出半年跌成够,没一点价值的公司
东大门
2022-03-15
$尚德机构(STG)$
还不跌停
东大门
2021-04-12
$红黄蓝(RYB)$
这种公司就得远离,问题不断!
东大门
2021-04-12
垃圾公司,远离这样的公司
东大门
2021-04-12
$红黄蓝(RYB)$
垃圾公司
东大门
2021-03-05
$跟谁学(GSX)$
营收增长下降严重,持续开始亏损,目前还没有获客的好方式,前景不明朗!
东大门
2021-02-04
$红黄蓝(RYB)$
https://ishare.ifeng.com/c/s/v0046xQQE95xpHXg3bJIas2LkseJBa8YxKBIJmSIkrjlJE4__?from=ucms_web这种公司就得清理出去
东大门
2021-02-04
$红黄蓝(RYB)$
基本做事,垃圾公司
东大门
2020-10-13
聚合到高途一个下面,能说明两点1.跟谁学和高途课堂学员重合度太高,市场已经从增量变成趋于饱和,获取的学员有n多家机构都在跟进,以前的增量市场可能重合的学员会很少,预示高增长结束了,结束的同时竞争对比变大了,营销成本必然增加!2.预示着内外部的压力下不得不合并集中优势来做,内部的整合必然导致内耗,外部的压力会导致内部生变
抱歉,原内容已删除
东大门
2020-09-02
$跟谁学(GSX)$
盘前的跌就是市场对从事教育行业人员的一个教训,特别是跟谁学内部员工,觉得公司增长挺好的,应该财报前赶紧买些,赚点钱,实际不了解估值不了解市场,跟风会害了自己,自己赚的钱投到股市又还给了公司!
东大门
2020-09-02
$跟谁学(GSX)$
说下Q2财报疫情下的财报主要数据!第一正价课招生332%增长,去年没有疫情q2招生250%,19q2比20q2的增长率提升33%!20年q1招生307%,19没疫情q1招生200%,招生增长率提升50%,说明二季度的在疫情完全影响下正价课招生量下降了,也就之后招生量增长率不会创新高了,走入增长率下降的趋势,后期估值的高低主要看净利润了!第二净利润率4%,从一季度将近14%,降了快10个点,说明营销成本增加了,毛利率应该没有下降,预示着连续盈利的记录将被打破,后期会出现亏损!结论:今晚大概率会跌!
东大门
2020-09-01
$跟谁学(GSX)$
对于跟谁学现在挺难受,要平衡三方面的关系,招生量增长与学员承接能力,再者盈利能力倡导不烧钱的最小单位模式,那个出问题了就会严重影响自己在赛道的位置和市场对股价的反应!第一极力在扩充人员承接这么高的招生量,新进的师资和辅导老师,包括销售都不是一朝一夕就能打造成熟,教育是慢工细活,盲目的400%的增长,教育行业真可能会出问题!第二在吃完前期做tob业务的流量红利后,激烈的获客竞争必然导致成本的增加,前期人员大力的扩张来承接学员也必然导致效率降低进而成本增加,就会导致为了平衡盈利性财报会约束了招生的扩张!预测二季度,跟谁学会保净利润率,预估不会超10%,净收入继续高增长,正价课招生量低于一季度307%的增长!估值1300亿人民币绝对高估!
东大门
2020-08-07
$跟谁学(GSX)$
这是要把虚胖的中概股赶尽杀绝啊
东大门
2020-08-07
$跟谁学(GSX)$
美国做空机构按耐不住了
东大门
2020-08-05
$跟谁学(GSX)$
$二季度业绩决定一切,是腰斩一半,还是稳住估值,从学而思网校一季度16亿的业绩看,跟谁学很难做到年收入100亿,利润也就10亿,市值1770亿,市盈率177,是高是低自己看,现在正是收割教育公司个人投资散户的时候,自己在跟谁学赚的钱又还给公司!!!只看到增长,没看到估值的虚高!
东大门
2020-05-19
业务是跟上c端这一波在线起来了,得了市值,失了人心!不断的做空可能真把业务给折腾下去!
东大门
2020-05-06
$跟谁学(GSX)$
一群人都是等着财报发布大涨,高位卖呢,这怎么会涨呢!主要还是估值已经很高,加上浑水做空的市场不确定性和一群等着高位卖的人!
东大门
2020-05-06
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@夏夏夏:跟谁学Q1:高增长和做空之外,关注下高估值
东大门
2020-05-06
$跟谁学(GSX)$
$跟谁学(GSX)$第一先说营收的增长,疫情学员有充足的时间消耗课时,导致更多的四季度的递延收入确认为第一季度收入!而第一季度的递延收入并没有增长,二季度和三季度的营收没有保障!第二利润的增长,第四季度销售费用率从47%增长到58%,毛利率变化不大,净利润率的环比增长主要是增值税减免和政府补贴带来的!第三递延收入还降低些,从付费人次的增长率上来看,在疫情情况下307%太少了,上个季度即第四季度快300%总得来说,股价的上涨和下跌,看的是第一季度的付费人次和递延的收入,有苗头趋势销售费用的增长和毛利率的降低会拖累未来的净利润率!
东大门
2020-05-05
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@小虎周报:好未来:亏损是线下转线上之殇,递延收入含金量待考
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>$二季度业绩决定一切,是腰斩一半,还是稳住估值,从学而思网校一季度16亿的业绩看,跟谁学很难做到年收入100亿,利润也就10亿,市值1770亿,市盈率177,是高是低自己看,现在正是收割教育公司个人投资散户的时候,自己在跟谁学赚的钱又还给公司!!!只看到增长,没看到估值的虚高!","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$$二季度业绩决定一切,是腰斩一半,还是稳住估值,从学而思网校一季度16亿的业绩看,跟谁学很难做到年收入100亿,利润也就10亿,市值1770亿,市盈率177,是高是低自己看,现在正是收割教育公司个人投资散户的时候,自己在跟谁学赚的钱又还给公司!!!只看到增长,没看到估值的虚高!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51398c277e354758704c4420cdebd982","width":"1076","height":"624"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945426514","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3525945643966390","authorId":"3525945643966390","name":"T20210907001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7a7663d70d9e5ae6d3b7d7e5c45a1ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3525945643966390","authorIdStr":"3525945643966390"},"content":"二季度做到16亿,全年妥妥100亿,不懂教育就不要乱分析;引得一帮傻空往坑里跳。","text":"二季度做到16亿,全年妥妥100亿,不懂教育就不要乱分析;引得一帮傻空往坑里跳。","html":"二季度做到16亿,全年妥妥100亿,不懂教育就不要乱分析;引得一帮傻空往坑里跳。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959824443,"gmtCreate":1589861876782,"gmtModify":1704190894302,"author":{"id":"3465785335865419","authorId":"3465785335865419","name":"东大门","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465785335865419","authorIdStr":"3465785335865419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"业务是跟上c端这一波在线起来了,得了市值,失了人心!不断的做空可能真把业务给折腾下去!","listText":"业务是跟上c端这一波在线起来了,得了市值,失了人心!不断的做空可能真把业务给折腾下去!","text":"业务是跟上c端这一波在线起来了,得了市值,失了人心!不断的做空可能真把业务给折腾下去!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e8e45c1c9ea1a0bdfb15230fc4869e","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959824443","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927111382,"gmtCreate":1588773245946,"gmtModify":1704178387002,"author":{"id":"3465785335865419","authorId":"3465785335865419","name":"东大门","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465785335865419","authorIdStr":"3465785335865419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>一群人都是等着财报发布大涨,高位卖呢,这怎么会涨呢!主要还是估值已经很高,加上浑水做空的市场不确定性和一群等着高位卖的人!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>一群人都是等着财报发布大涨,高位卖呢,这怎么会涨呢!主要还是估值已经很高,加上浑水做空的市场不确定性和一群等着高位卖的人!","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$一群人都是等着财报发布大涨,高位卖呢,这怎么会涨呢!主要还是估值已经很高,加上浑水做空的市场不确定性和一群等着高位卖的人!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927111382","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3522965446641708","authorId":"3522965446641708","name":"winter_lee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46202d4a1b95a6e7c451600d206acbb9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522965446641708","authorIdStr":"3522965446641708"},"content":"什么?浑水做空了?不是香橼和灰熊吗","text":"什么?浑水做空了?不是香橼和灰熊吗","html":"什么?浑水做空了?不是香橼和灰熊吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927197463,"gmtCreate":1588771716352,"gmtModify":1704178368892,"author":{"id":"3465785335865419","authorId":"3465785335865419","name":"东大门","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465785335865419","authorIdStr":"3465785335865419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927197463","repostId":"927190272","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":927190272,"gmtCreate":1588769431281,"gmtModify":1704178358626,"author":{"id":"163879441421586","authorId":"163879441421586","name":"夏夏夏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ae2606862e6fc6213bbfb1de0eef2c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"163879441421586","authorIdStr":"163879441421586"},"themes":[],"title":"跟谁学Q1:高增长和做空之外,关注下高估值","htmlText":"经历灰熊(Grizzly)和香橼两番做空,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a> 今天发布2020年第一季度财报。业务数据一如往季高增长,营收12.98亿元同比增382%,净利润1.48亿元同比增336.6%,盘前股价涨超6%。同时当前股价对应动态PE约为174倍PS约为24倍,且不去追究跟谁学和做空机构的纠缠,高估值数据也需思量。 同比数据亮眼高增长,环比下行 一季度公司核心数据,营收12.98亿元净利润1.48亿元,双双击败华尔街预期。 如果一定要“鸡蛋里挑骨头”,你则会说跟谁学2020Q1终于营收增速低于400%,这可是连续保持了4个季度的数据。 整个来说,华尔街预计的2020年公司营收增长约200%,不过从公司给出的二季度指引来看,完成机构这个小目标应无悬念。 净利润端我们看到同比大增336.6%,但也应该关注到环比的下降,如同营收端的表现。此外,运营利润率由上季度的17.9%降为本季度的7.1%。包括毛利率也在一季度企稳至78.2%,结束了连续8个季度的上行趋势;或许侧面表明虽然一季度受疫情影响拉动在线教育需求,但整体市场变现并非完全顺风。 同时去看跟谁学的销售费用,从去年同期的9950万元猛增至7.57亿元,增幅超7倍。尽管老生常谈的销售费用率超出营收增长,不过带来一个问题是,或许有费用增长而营收无法跟上的尴尬。整体运营利润率来到7.1%,不得不说作为唯一一家盈利的在线教育公司,一枝独秀依然。市场永远关注头部和高增长,这是跟谁学吸引押注的关键。 高估值或透支股价成长空间 以盘前40美元的价格,跟谁学是一家市值约100亿美元、动态市盈率超170倍、远期市盈率接近100倍的公司。2019年公司收入增长约400%,主要是受K-12课程付费课程注册人数的增长推动,华尔街预计2020年收入将再增长约","listText":"经历灰熊(Grizzly)和香橼两番做空,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a> 今天发布2020年第一季度财报。业务数据一如往季高增长,营收12.98亿元同比增382%,净利润1.48亿元同比增336.6%,盘前股价涨超6%。同时当前股价对应动态PE约为174倍PS约为24倍,且不去追究跟谁学和做空机构的纠缠,高估值数据也需思量。 同比数据亮眼高增长,环比下行 一季度公司核心数据,营收12.98亿元净利润1.48亿元,双双击败华尔街预期。 如果一定要“鸡蛋里挑骨头”,你则会说跟谁学2020Q1终于营收增速低于400%,这可是连续保持了4个季度的数据。 整个来说,华尔街预计的2020年公司营收增长约200%,不过从公司给出的二季度指引来看,完成机构这个小目标应无悬念。 净利润端我们看到同比大增336.6%,但也应该关注到环比的下降,如同营收端的表现。此外,运营利润率由上季度的17.9%降为本季度的7.1%。包括毛利率也在一季度企稳至78.2%,结束了连续8个季度的上行趋势;或许侧面表明虽然一季度受疫情影响拉动在线教育需求,但整体市场变现并非完全顺风。 同时去看跟谁学的销售费用,从去年同期的9950万元猛增至7.57亿元,增幅超7倍。尽管老生常谈的销售费用率超出营收增长,不过带来一个问题是,或许有费用增长而营收无法跟上的尴尬。整体运营利润率来到7.1%,不得不说作为唯一一家盈利的在线教育公司,一枝独秀依然。市场永远关注头部和高增长,这是跟谁学吸引押注的关键。 高估值或透支股价成长空间 以盘前40美元的价格,跟谁学是一家市值约100亿美元、动态市盈率超170倍、远期市盈率接近100倍的公司。2019年公司收入增长约400%,主要是受K-12课程付费课程注册人数的增长推动,华尔街预计2020年收入将再增长约","text":"经历灰熊(Grizzly)和香橼两番做空,$跟谁学(GSX)$ 今天发布2020年第一季度财报。业务数据一如往季高增长,营收12.98亿元同比增382%,净利润1.48亿元同比增336.6%,盘前股价涨超6%。同时当前股价对应动态PE约为174倍PS约为24倍,且不去追究跟谁学和做空机构的纠缠,高估值数据也需思量。 同比数据亮眼高增长,环比下行 一季度公司核心数据,营收12.98亿元净利润1.48亿元,双双击败华尔街预期。 如果一定要“鸡蛋里挑骨头”,你则会说跟谁学2020Q1终于营收增速低于400%,这可是连续保持了4个季度的数据。 整个来说,华尔街预计的2020年公司营收增长约200%,不过从公司给出的二季度指引来看,完成机构这个小目标应无悬念。 净利润端我们看到同比大增336.6%,但也应该关注到环比的下降,如同营收端的表现。此外,运营利润率由上季度的17.9%降为本季度的7.1%。包括毛利率也在一季度企稳至78.2%,结束了连续8个季度的上行趋势;或许侧面表明虽然一季度受疫情影响拉动在线教育需求,但整体市场变现并非完全顺风。 同时去看跟谁学的销售费用,从去年同期的9950万元猛增至7.57亿元,增幅超7倍。尽管老生常谈的销售费用率超出营收增长,不过带来一个问题是,或许有费用增长而营收无法跟上的尴尬。整体运营利润率来到7.1%,不得不说作为唯一一家盈利的在线教育公司,一枝独秀依然。市场永远关注头部和高增长,这是跟谁学吸引押注的关键。 高估值或透支股价成长空间 以盘前40美元的价格,跟谁学是一家市值约100亿美元、动态市盈率超170倍、远期市盈率接近100倍的公司。2019年公司收入增长约400%,主要是受K-12课程付费课程注册人数的增长推动,华尔街预计2020年收入将再增长约","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332bf9db1412ca02eb259138525914c1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777accf64410f1661cd24c15aaf131f7"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f921bee96dc96103116b7d900b7bbff1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927190272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927355496,"gmtCreate":1588758876915,"gmtModify":1704178311883,"author":{"id":"3465785335865419","authorId":"3465785335865419","name":"东大门","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465785335865419","authorIdStr":"3465785335865419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>$跟谁学(GSX)$第一先说营收的增长,疫情学员有充足的时间消耗课时,导致更多的四季度的递延收入确认为第一季度收入!而第一季度的递延收入并没有增长,二季度和三季度的营收没有保障!第二利润的增长,第四季度销售费用率从47%增长到58%,毛利率变化不大,净利润率的环比增长主要是增值税减免和政府补贴带来的!第三递延收入还降低些,从付费人次的增长率上来看,在疫情情况下307%太少了,上个季度即第四季度快300%总得来说,股价的上涨和下跌,看的是第一季度的付费人次和递延的收入,有苗头趋势销售费用的增长和毛利率的降低会拖累未来的净利润率!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>$跟谁学(GSX)$第一先说营收的增长,疫情学员有充足的时间消耗课时,导致更多的四季度的递延收入确认为第一季度收入!而第一季度的递延收入并没有增长,二季度和三季度的营收没有保障!第二利润的增长,第四季度销售费用率从47%增长到58%,毛利率变化不大,净利润率的环比增长主要是增值税减免和政府补贴带来的!第三递延收入还降低些,从付费人次的增长率上来看,在疫情情况下307%太少了,上个季度即第四季度快300%总得来说,股价的上涨和下跌,看的是第一季度的付费人次和递延的收入,有苗头趋势销售费用的增长和毛利率的降低会拖累未来的净利润率!","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$$跟谁学(GSX)$第一先说营收的增长,疫情学员有充足的时间消耗课时,导致更多的四季度的递延收入确认为第一季度收入!而第一季度的递延收入并没有增长,二季度和三季度的营收没有保障!第二利润的增长,第四季度销售费用率从47%增长到58%,毛利率变化不大,净利润率的环比增长主要是增值税减免和政府补贴带来的!第三递延收入还降低些,从付费人次的增长率上来看,在疫情情况下307%太少了,上个季度即第四季度快300%总得来说,股价的上涨和下跌,看的是第一季度的付费人次和递延的收入,有苗头趋势销售费用的增长和毛利率的降低会拖累未来的净利润率!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927355496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549980393503187","authorId":"3549980393503187","name":"我就喜欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e295176ca301becfb72e7a80771ab6d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3549980393503187","authorIdStr":"3549980393503187"},"content":"还有一部分做慈善了啊,不是所有的商家都只会发国难财!","text":"还有一部分做慈善了啊,不是所有的商家都只会发国难财!","html":"还有一部分做慈善了啊,不是所有的商家都只会发国难财!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924785367,"gmtCreate":1588610769159,"gmtModify":1704367931188,"author":{"id":"3465785335865419","authorId":"3465785335865419","name":"东大门","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465785335865419","authorIdStr":"3465785335865419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924785367","repostId":"924408664","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":924408664,"gmtCreate":1588552382344,"gmtModify":1744854926567,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"好未来:亏损是线下转线上之殇,递延收入含金量待考","htmlText":"好未来<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$(TAL)$</a>于4月28日,发布了截至2020年2月29日的2020财年第四季度和全财年的未经审计的业绩。 2020财年四季度营业收入8.58亿美元,同比+18.05%,比Bloomberg一致预期8.61亿美元+0.39%;Non-GAAP运营亏损为860万美元,去年同期为盈利1.37亿美元;GAAP每股亏损为0.15美元/ADS,一致预期为0.037美元/ADS。 投资要点 受疫情爆发的影响,线下课程受停摆影响,“培优”业务不及预期。线下小班业务Q4同比+6%(美元计)或9%(人民币计),占总营收的比例从去年的76%下降到68%。线下小班入学数增长从上季度的同比+61%下降至+37%。 线上业务增长加快,利润率低,但有望提前实现盈利。因为停止了线下运营,学而思网校等线上课程增长较快,同比增长比去年的+86%有所下降,但也有+72%。线上课程入学数增长同比+96%。学而思网校的营收占比从去年的17%增长至24%。 教师成本增大,市场开支增加,可能对未来利润率持续产生负面影响。Q4收入成本同比+32.6%,主要由于教师薪酬、租金成本和学习材料的增长。销售及市场推广费用同比+78.6%,主要是开展更多的营销推广活动来吸引客户、提升品牌,同时向销售和市场营销人员提供了更多支持。运营利润率首次跌至-4.81%,持续的线上教育竞争可能会长期损害利润率,未来市场投放效率成为运营关键。 自爆造假的“轻课”业务影响收入约2.6%,影响利润率16%。本次财报将2019年此前3个季度的数据进行了修正,减去了“轻课”部分的虚增数据。2019年前3季度总计虚增收入8610万美元,占全年总营收比例约2.6%。同时产生的运营利润差额约为2640万美元,差异达16%。不过虚增部分的业务并","listText":"好未来<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$(TAL)$</a>于4月28日,发布了截至2020年2月29日的2020财年第四季度和全财年的未经审计的业绩。 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线上业务增长加快,利润率低,但有望提前实现盈利。因为停止了线下运营,学而思网校等线上课程增长较快,同比增长比去年的+86%有所下降,但也有+72%。线上课程入学数增长同比+96%。学而思网校的营收占比从去年的17%增长至24%。 教师成本增大,市场开支增加,可能对未来利润率持续产生负面影响。Q4收入成本同比+32.6%,主要由于教师薪酬、租金成本和学习材料的增长。销售及市场推广费用同比+78.6%,主要是开展更多的营销推广活动来吸引客户、提升品牌,同时向销售和市场营销人员提供了更多支持。运营利润率首次跌至-4.81%,持续的线上教育竞争可能会长期损害利润率,未来市场投放效率成为运营关键。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>盘前的跌就是市场对从事教育行业人员的一个教训,特别是跟谁学内部员工,觉得公司增长挺好的,应该财报前赶紧买些,赚点钱,实际不了解估值不了解市场,跟风会害了自己,自己赚的钱投到股市又还给了公司!","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>$跟谁学(GSX)$第一先说营收的增长,疫情学员有充足的时间消耗课时,导致更多的四季度的递延收入确认为第一季度收入!而第一季度的递延收入并没有增长,二季度和三季度的营收没有保障!第二利润的增长,第四季度销售费用率从47%增长到58%,毛利率变化不大,净利润率的环比增长主要是增值税减免和政府补贴带来的!第三递延收入还降低些,从付费人次的增长率上来看,在疫情情况下307%太少了,上个季度即第四季度快300%总得来说,股价的上涨和下跌,看的是第一季度的付费人次和递延的收入,有苗头趋势销售费用的增长和毛利率的降低会拖累未来的净利润率!","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$$跟谁学(GSX)$第一先说营收的增长,疫情学员有充足的时间消耗课时,导致更多的四季度的递延收入确认为第一季度收入!而第一季度的递延收入并没有增长,二季度和三季度的营收没有保障!第二利润的增长,第四季度销售费用率从47%增长到58%,毛利率变化不大,净利润率的环比增长主要是增值税减免和政府补贴带来的!第三递延收入还降低些,从付费人次的增长率上来看,在疫情情况下307%太少了,上个季度即第四季度快300%总得来说,股价的上涨和下跌,看的是第一季度的付费人次和递延的收入,有苗头趋势销售费用的增长和毛利率的降低会拖累未来的净利润率!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927355496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549980393503187","authorId":"3549980393503187","name":"我就喜欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e295176ca301becfb72e7a80771ab6d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3549980393503187","authorIdStr":"3549980393503187"},"content":"还有一部分做慈善了啊,不是所有的商家都只会发国难财!","text":"还有一部分做慈善了啊,不是所有的商家都只会发国难财!","html":"还有一部分做慈善了啊,不是所有的商家都只会发国难财!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342522792,"gmtCreate":1618234057616,"gmtModify":1618236092476,"author":{"id":"3465785335865419","authorId":"3465785335865419","name":"东大门","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465785335865419","authorIdStr":"3465785335865419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYB\">$红黄蓝(RYB)$</a>垃圾公司","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYB\">$红黄蓝(RYB)$</a>垃圾公司","text":"$红黄蓝(RYB)$垃圾公司","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23849aedf6a96d7ddc9fc4b572999de3","width":"1070","height":"763"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342522792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317284632,"gmtCreate":1612450917926,"gmtModify":1703762115470,"author":{"id":"3465785335865419","authorId":"3465785335865419","name":"东大门","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465785335865419","authorIdStr":"3465785335865419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYB\">$红黄蓝(RYB)$</a>https://ishare.ifeng.com/c/s/v0046xQQE95xpHXg3bJIas2LkseJBa8YxKBIJmSIkrjlJE4__?from=ucms_web这种公司就得清理出去","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYB\">$红黄蓝(RYB)$</a>https://ishare.ifeng.com/c/s/v0046xQQE95xpHXg3bJIas2LkseJBa8YxKBIJmSIkrjlJE4__?from=ucms_web这种公司就得清理出去","text":"$红黄蓝(RYB)$https://ishare.ifeng.com/c/s/v0046xQQE95xpHXg3bJIas2LkseJBa8YxKBIJmSIkrjlJE4__?from=ucms_web这种公司就得清理出去","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b1687a057a879faab090b3623d8b0e","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317284632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944895550,"gmtCreate":1596815330670,"gmtModify":1704213786540,"author":{"id":"3465785335865419","authorId":"3465785335865419","name":"东大门","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465785335865419","authorIdStr":"3465785335865419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>这是要把虚胖的中概股赶尽杀绝啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>这是要把虚胖的中概股赶尽杀绝啊","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$这是要把虚胖的中概股赶尽杀绝啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fd2a1a8a2564d4265c20823b7f23f9","width":"1080","height":"1526"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944895550","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3457816270726969","authorId":"3457816270726969","name":"美股新手求指教","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64802a26b84c05f065846fcf00010c8","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3457816270726969","authorIdStr":"3457816270726969"},"content":"中概也要看,像阿里巴巴,京东,网易这些水分不大,也有很多毒瘤,比如。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。太多了","text":"中概也要看,像阿里巴巴,京东,网易这些水分不大,也有很多毒瘤,比如。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。太多了","html":"中概也要看,像阿里巴巴,京东,网易这些水分不大,也有很多毒瘤,比如。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。太多了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924785367,"gmtCreate":1588610769159,"gmtModify":1704367931188,"author":{"id":"3465785335865419","authorId":"3465785335865419","name":"东大门","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465785335865419","authorIdStr":"3465785335865419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924785367","repostId":"924408664","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":924408664,"gmtCreate":1588552382344,"gmtModify":1744854926567,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"好未来:亏损是线下转线上之殇,递延收入含金量待考","htmlText":"好未来<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$(TAL)$</a>于4月28日,发布了截至2020年2月29日的2020财年第四季度和全财年的未经审计的业绩。 2020财年四季度营业收入8.58亿美元,同比+18.05%,比Bloomberg一致预期8.61亿美元+0.39%;Non-GAAP运营亏损为860万美元,去年同期为盈利1.37亿美元;GAAP每股亏损为0.15美元/ADS,一致预期为0.037美元/ADS。 投资要点 受疫情爆发的影响,线下课程受停摆影响,“培优”业务不及预期。线下小班业务Q4同比+6%(美元计)或9%(人民币计),占总营收的比例从去年的76%下降到68%。线下小班入学数增长从上季度的同比+61%下降至+37%。 线上业务增长加快,利润率低,但有望提前实现盈利。因为停止了线下运营,学而思网校等线上课程增长较快,同比增长比去年的+86%有所下降,但也有+72%。线上课程入学数增长同比+96%。学而思网校的营收占比从去年的17%增长至24%。 教师成本增大,市场开支增加,可能对未来利润率持续产生负面影响。Q4收入成本同比+32.6%,主要由于教师薪酬、租金成本和学习材料的增长。销售及市场推广费用同比+78.6%,主要是开展更多的营销推广活动来吸引客户、提升品牌,同时向销售和市场营销人员提供了更多支持。运营利润率首次跌至-4.81%,持续的线上教育竞争可能会长期损害利润率,未来市场投放效率成为运营关键。 自爆造假的“轻课”业务影响收入约2.6%,影响利润率16%。本次财报将2019年此前3个季度的数据进行了修正,减去了“轻课”部分的虚增数据。2019年前3季度总计虚增收入8610万美元,占全年总营收比例约2.6%。同时产生的运营利润差额约为2640万美元,差异达16%。不过虚增部分的业务并","listText":"好未来<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$(TAL)$</a>于4月28日,发布了截至2020年2月29日的2020财年第四季度和全财年的未经审计的业绩。 2020财年四季度营业收入8.58亿美元,同比+18.05%,比Bloomberg一致预期8.61亿美元+0.39%;Non-GAAP运营亏损为860万美元,去年同期为盈利1.37亿美元;GAAP每股亏损为0.15美元/ADS,一致预期为0.037美元/ADS。 投资要点 受疫情爆发的影响,线下课程受停摆影响,“培优”业务不及预期。线下小班业务Q4同比+6%(美元计)或9%(人民币计),占总营收的比例从去年的76%下降到68%。线下小班入学数增长从上季度的同比+61%下降至+37%。 线上业务增长加快,利润率低,但有望提前实现盈利。因为停止了线下运营,学而思网校等线上课程增长较快,同比增长比去年的+86%有所下降,但也有+72%。线上课程入学数增长同比+96%。学而思网校的营收占比从去年的17%增长至24%。 教师成本增大,市场开支增加,可能对未来利润率持续产生负面影响。Q4收入成本同比+32.6%,主要由于教师薪酬、租金成本和学习材料的增长。销售及市场推广费用同比+78.6%,主要是开展更多的营销推广活动来吸引客户、提升品牌,同时向销售和市场营销人员提供了更多支持。运营利润率首次跌至-4.81%,持续的线上教育竞争可能会长期损害利润率,未来市场投放效率成为运营关键。 自爆造假的“轻课”业务影响收入约2.6%,影响利润率16%。本次财报将2019年此前3个季度的数据进行了修正,减去了“轻课”部分的虚增数据。2019年前3季度总计虚增收入8610万美元,占全年总营收比例约2.6%。同时产生的运营利润差额约为2640万美元,差异达16%。不过虚增部分的业务并","text":"好未来$(TAL)$于4月28日,发布了截至2020年2月29日的2020财年第四季度和全财年的未经审计的业绩。 2020财年四季度营业收入8.58亿美元,同比+18.05%,比Bloomberg一致预期8.61亿美元+0.39%;Non-GAAP运营亏损为860万美元,去年同期为盈利1.37亿美元;GAAP每股亏损为0.15美元/ADS,一致预期为0.037美元/ADS。 投资要点 受疫情爆发的影响,线下课程受停摆影响,“培优”业务不及预期。线下小班业务Q4同比+6%(美元计)或9%(人民币计),占总营收的比例从去年的76%下降到68%。线下小班入学数增长从上季度的同比+61%下降至+37%。 线上业务增长加快,利润率低,但有望提前实现盈利。因为停止了线下运营,学而思网校等线上课程增长较快,同比增长比去年的+86%有所下降,但也有+72%。线上课程入学数增长同比+96%。学而思网校的营收占比从去年的17%增长至24%。 教师成本增大,市场开支增加,可能对未来利润率持续产生负面影响。Q4收入成本同比+32.6%,主要由于教师薪酬、租金成本和学习材料的增长。销售及市场推广费用同比+78.6%,主要是开展更多的营销推广活动来吸引客户、提升品牌,同时向销售和市场营销人员提供了更多支持。运营利润率首次跌至-4.81%,持续的线上教育竞争可能会长期损害利润率,未来市场投放效率成为运营关键。 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