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盲人摸大象

盲人摸大象

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盲人摸大象

12-23 22:54

[强] [强]

Oppenheimer：美股“圣诞老人行情”已至，“一月效应”可期！

盲人摸大象

12-23 15:36

哦嗯额

@罗尼交易指南:..

盲人摸大象

12-23 13:06

[强]

盲人摸大象

12-23 00:56

[强]

盲人摸大象

12-20

1

盲人摸大象

12-19

ai的建设一直推进中，ai的应用还没踪影，因此上涨有大幅空间

盲人摸大象

12-18

马斯克在宏观布局上非常有智慧，他也有能力把特斯拉市值提升到新阶段，每次下跌都是机会！

盲人摸大象

12-18

1

期权策略 | 华纳兄弟并购案上演狗血剧情！不同情景下如何布局期权策略？

盲人摸大象

12-18

跟上了，看好他的机器人

盲人摸大象

12-18

1

飙升的日债收益率：美股的灰犀牛？

盲人摸大象

12-10

英伟达在目前人工智能应用大爆发的现阶段，对中国市场的解禁是极大的利好！后续应有一段不错的行情[强]

盲人摸大象

12-06

[强]

盲人摸大象

12-05

美团与阿里，当然选阿里！阿里从行业与经营上都比美团有优势！

盲人摸大象

12-05

[强]

盲人摸大象

12-05

[强]

盲人摸大象

12-04

，1

意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增

盲人摸大象

12-03

上串下跳的，没个准！

美股异动 | 加密货币概念股上涨，BitMine涨超7%，Strategy涨近7%

盲人摸大象

11-22

[强][强]

盲人摸大象

11-22

[强]

盲人摸大象

11-22

仓位控制最重要‼️但理性的情绪控制是基础，不然很容易判断错误。

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Wald指出，这一表现与任何典型的七天周期形成鲜明对比，后者平均涨幅仅为0.2%，上涨概率为57%。而且，当“圣诞老人行情”未能出现时，接下来一到两个季度的表现往往低于平均水平。展望1月份，Oppenheimer分析师根据该指数相对于其200日移动平均线的位置，发现了一些令人鼓舞的信号。这种现象被称为“一月效应”，因为研究表明，一月份的涨幅是其他月份均值的几倍。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>从12月24日至1月5日的“圣诞老人行情”历来为投资者带来丰厚回报，自1928年以来，标普500指数在此期间平均上涨1.6%。在过去97年中，该指数在这七天内上涨的概率高达77%(75年)。Oppenheimer技术分析主管Ari H. Wald指出，这一表现与任何典型的七天周期形成鲜明对比，后者平均涨幅仅为0.2%，上涨概率为57%。而且，当“圣诞老人行情”未能出现时，接下来一到两个季度的表现往往低于平均水平。</p><p>Wald表示：“自1928年以来，标普500指数在经历一次下跌的圣诞行情后，接下来的三个月平均下跌1%，而经历一次上涨的圣诞行情后，接下来的三个月平均上涨2.6%。”他还引用了华尔街一句老话：“如果圣诞老人不来，熊市可能就要来了。”</p><p>展望1月份，Oppenheimer分析师根据该指数相对于其200日移动平均线的位置，发现了一些令人鼓舞的信号。自1950年以来，当标普500指数在1月份开盘价高于其平滑<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>时，平均上涨1.2%，上涨概率为64%;而当开盘价低于该趋势线时，平均上涨0.7%，上涨概率为50%。目前，该指数正处于这一关键技术水平之上。</p><p>此外，而1月份动量因子(SPMO)一直是全年表现最差的月份，该因子追踪过去12个月市场领头羊与落后者的表现。12月份的优异表现通常反映了税收抵扣策略，即投资者卖出亏损股票以抵消资本利得税，这使得1月份成为动量策略表现最差的月份，因为“前一年表现不佳的股票随后会被买回”，这就是所谓的“一月效应”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403e72c5a9c6206020319e6838b8e00b\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"331\"/></p><p>即一种流行的理论认为，美国股市在1月份的涨幅往往高于其他月份。这种现象被称为“一月效应”，因为研究表明，一月份的涨幅是其他月份均值的几倍。这种影响在1940年至1970年代中期的小型公司股票中最为明显。但在2000年前后，这一涨幅似乎有所收缩，自那以后就不那么可靠了。</p><p>“一月效应”在几十年前就已被广泛接受，以至于大多数研究都集中在试图寻找细微差别和原因上，而没有得出任何确切的结论。但也有其他理论。最主要的理论是，许多个人投资者在12月进行投资损失节税(Tax-Loss Harvesting)，即抛售亏损头寸以抵消盈利，从而减少纳税义务。该理论认为，1月1日之后，投资者会停止抛售并补充股票投资组合，从而推动股市上涨。另一种理论是行为理论：人们在新年伊始做出财务决定，并相应地调整投资，从而推高股市。许多高薪投资者严重依赖年终奖，这使他们有充裕的现金可以在新年伊始进行投资。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oppenheimer：美股“圣诞老人行情”已至，“一月效应”可期！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOppenheimer：美股“圣诞老人行情”已至，“一月效应”可期！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-23 10:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1384754.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从12月24日至1月5日的“圣诞老人行情”历来为投资者带来丰厚回报，自1928年以来，标普500指数在此期间平均上涨1.6%。在过去97年中，该指数在这七天内上涨的概率高达77%(75年)。Oppenheimer技术分析主管Ari H. Wald指出，这一表现与任何典型的七天周期形成鲜明对比，后者平均涨幅仅为0.2%，上涨概率为57%。而且，当“圣诞老人行情”未能出现时，接下来一到两个季度的表现...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1384754.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1384754.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2593450820","content_text":"从12月24日至1月5日的“圣诞老人行情”历来为投资者带来丰厚回报，自1928年以来，标普500指数在此期间平均上涨1.6%。在过去97年中，该指数在这七天内上涨的概率高达77%(75年)。Oppenheimer技术分析主管Ari H. Wald指出，这一表现与任何典型的七天周期形成鲜明对比，后者平均涨幅仅为0.2%，上涨概率为57%。而且，当“圣诞老人行情”未能出现时，接下来一到两个季度的表现往往低于平均水平。Wald表示：“自1928年以来，标普500指数在经历一次下跌的圣诞行情后，接下来的三个月平均下跌1%，而经历一次上涨的圣诞行情后，接下来的三个月平均上涨2.6%。”他还引用了华尔街一句老话：“如果圣诞老人不来，熊市可能就要来了。”展望1月份，Oppenheimer分析师根据该指数相对于其200日移动平均线的位置，发现了一些令人鼓舞的信号。自1950年以来，当标普500指数在1月份开盘价高于其平滑趋势线时，平均上涨1.2%，上涨概率为64%;而当开盘价低于该趋势线时，平均上涨0.7%，上涨概率为50%。目前，该指数正处于这一关键技术水平之上。此外，而1月份动量因子(SPMO)一直是全年表现最差的月份，该因子追踪过去12个月市场领头羊与落后者的表现。12月份的优异表现通常反映了税收抵扣策略，即投资者卖出亏损股票以抵消资本利得税，这使得1月份成为动量策略表现最差的月份，因为“前一年表现不佳的股票随后会被买回”，这就是所谓的“一月效应”。即一种流行的理论认为，美国股市在1月份的涨幅往往高于其他月份。这种现象被称为“一月效应”，因为研究表明，一月份的涨幅是其他月份均值的几倍。这种影响在1940年至1970年代中期的小型公司股票中最为明显。但在2000年前后，这一涨幅似乎有所收缩，自那以后就不那么可靠了。“一月效应”在几十年前就已被广泛接受，以至于大多数研究都集中在试图寻找细微差别和原因上，而没有得出任何确切的结论。但也有其他理论。最主要的理论是，许多个人投资者在12月进行投资损失节税(Tax-Loss Harvesting)，即抛售亏损头寸以抵消盈利，从而减少纳税义务。该理论认为，1月1日之后，投资者会停止抛售并补充股票投资组合，从而推动股市上涨。另一种理论是行为理论：人们在新年伊始做出财务决定，并相应地调整投资，从而推高股市。许多高薪投资者严重依赖年终奖，这使他们有充裕的现金可以在新年伊始进行投资。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":2,".DJI":2,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":513760560755824,"gmtCreate":1766475364780,"gmtModify":1766475367132,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哦嗯额","listText":"哦嗯额","text":"哦嗯额","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/513760560755824","repostId":"513707317276888","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":513707317276888,"gmtCreate":1766462443396,"gmtModify":1766463012627,"author":{"id":"4090389484897590","authorId":"4090389484897590","name":"罗尼交易指南","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5c157256e0398040e8bd07f5ab59b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090389484897590","idStr":"4090389484897590"},"themes":[],"title":"【罗尼交易指南】-2025.12.23-喂饭请张嘴！黄金隔夜狂涨1500点！做空就是送~","htmlText":"\n 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11:26","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"期权策略 | 华纳兄弟并购案上演狗血剧情！不同情景下如何布局期权策略？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167394354","media":"期权女巫","summary":"华纳兄弟并购案上演狗血剧情！12月7日美国总统特朗普对Netflix收购华纳兄弟的计划表达了明确的反垄断担忧，指出合并后实体的高市场份额可能构成监管障碍。12月8日2025年12月8日，派拉蒙正式对华纳兄弟发动恶意收购，以每股30美元的全现金方案入市，对华纳兄弟的企业估值达1084亿美元。华纳兄弟董事会则表示，将按受托义务审视建议。12月22日华纳兄弟董事会必须在12月22日前对派拉蒙提案做出回应，这将决定好莱坞这场收购大战的最终走向。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>华纳兄弟（ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC</a> ，WBD）并购案上演狗血剧情！12月5日， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a> （Netflix，NFLX）宣布将以现金加股票的方式，以827亿美元收购华纳兄弟探索公司旗下的核心影视业务，包括传奇的华纳兄弟制片厂、HBO电视网以及DC电影宇宙等宝贵IP。然而这场交易遭遇意外狙击。仅在三天后派拉蒙（ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSKY\">Paramount Skydance Corp</a> ，PSKY）发布公告，宣布对华纳兄弟发起敌意收购。派拉蒙提出以每股30美元的全现金方式收购华纳兄弟的全部流通股份，对应的华纳兄弟公司估值达到1084亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_4002993775\">时间线：</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>12月5日</strong></p></li></ul><p>2025年12月5日，美国媒体集团Netflix与华纳兄弟宣布已达成协议，Netflix将以现金加股票方式并购华纳兄弟的电影及电视制作业务。交易范围涵盖华纳兄弟旗下的收费电视及串流平台业务，包括HBO、HBO Max、DC娱乐／DC工作室，以及其庞大的内容库。整宗交易按企业价值计算达827亿美元（股权价值为720亿美元）。按照协议安排，在华纳兄弟探索完成计划中的拆分后，Netflix将以<strong>每股27.75美元</strong>收购华纳兄弟的股份。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>12月7日</strong></p></li></ul><p>美国总统特朗普对Netflix收购华纳兄弟的计划表达了明确的反垄断担忧，指出合并后实体的高市场份额可能构成监管障碍。这表明这笔价值720亿美元的交易正面临来自最高决策层的严峻审视，监管不确定性显著增加。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>12月8日</strong></p></li></ul><p>2025年12月8日，派拉蒙正式对华纳兄弟发动恶意收购，以<strong>每股30美元</strong>的全现金方案入市，对华纳兄弟的企业估值达1084亿美元。其股权部分估值410亿美元，由埃里森家族、红鸟资本、沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金、卡塔尔投资局及Affinity Partners提供资金支持，并获美国银行、花旗集团及阿波罗全球管理提供合共540亿美元贷款。派拉蒙声称其方案的现金规模比Netflix的建议多出约180亿美元。派拉蒙认为，若能成功合并，可凭借华纳兄弟的电影及电视资产，加上派拉蒙的广播与有线网络组合，建立一个更具规模的纵向整合娱乐及串流业务。华纳兄弟董事会则表示，将按受托义务审视建议。派拉蒙表示，其交易可于10至12个月内完成，而Netflix估计需时12至18个月。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>12月15日</strong></p></li></ul><p>奈飞公司（Netflix）表示，其收购华纳兄弟公司部分资产的立场并未发生变化。</p><p>奈飞公司联席首席执行官格雷格·彼得斯和特德·萨兰多斯在致员工信中称，派拉蒙天舞公司发起的敌意收购“完全在预料之中”，奈飞公司有信心通过监管审查。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>12月22日</strong></p></li></ul><p>华纳兄弟董事会必须在12月22日前对派拉蒙提案做出回应，这将决定好莱坞这场收购大战的最终走向。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>32美元</strong></p></li></ul><p>CreditSights分析师预计，如果谈判重启，派拉蒙可能将报价提升至<strong>每股32美元</strong>左右。</p><h2 id=\"id_3410828302\">不同情境下华纳兄弟（ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC</a> ，WBD）期权策略：</h2><h3 id=\"id_451309839\">1）假如派拉蒙以每股30美元的全现金方案赢得华纳兄弟并购案</h3><h4 id=\"id_3440818321\">①裸卖WBD看跌期权</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约构建：</strong>卖出一张2025年12月26日到期、行权价为29.5美元WBD看跌期权。</p></li></ul><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT\" title=\"$WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT$  </a></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈亏分析：</strong></p></li></ul><p>最大收益：权利金全额 =53美元</p><p>最大风险：若股价到期前跌破29.5美元，需按29.5美元的股价接盘100股</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：</strong>认为派拉蒙赢得华纳兄弟并购案，赚取权利金</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a781632877760802494c110a859daab\" tg-width=\"1166\" tg-height=\"1433\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_3824462230\">2）假如派拉蒙退出竞购，奈飞维持每股27.75美元的方案并赢得华纳兄弟并购案</h3><h4 id=\"id_2589857452\">①买入WBD看跌期权</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约构建：</strong>买入一张2025年12月26日到期、行权价为29.5美元WBD看跌期权。</p></li></ul><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT\" title=\"$WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT$  </a></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈亏分析：</strong></p></li></ul><p>最大亏损：权利金全额 =53美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：28.8美元</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：认为</strong>奈飞维持每股27.75美元的方案并赢得华纳兄弟并购案</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99e7800755c79b3a39e5184b9e0044df\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1392\"/></p><h4 id=\"id_101573478\">②卖出WBD虚值看涨期权</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约构建：</strong>卖出一张2025年12月26日到期、行权价为32.5美元WBD看涨期权。</p></li></ul><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WBD 20251226 32.5 CALL\" title=\"$WBD 20251226 32.5 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$WBD 20251226 32.5 CALL$  </a></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈亏分析：</strong></p></li></ul><p>最大收益：权利金全额 =46美元</p><p>最大风险：若股价到期前升破32.5美元，需按32.5美元的股价接盘100股，理论上亏损无上限</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：</strong>认为奈飞维持每股27.75美元的方案并赢得华纳兄弟并购案</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f943b17b33ea17af6ce94f924f0e6388\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1389\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_1870371707\">3）假如派拉蒙、奈飞竞购华纳兄弟的报价提高至每股32美元</h3><h4 id=\"id_2013951616\">①买入WBD看涨期权</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约构建：</strong>买入一张2026年1月9日到期、行权价为30美元WBD看涨期权。</p></li></ul><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WBD 20260109 30.0 CALL\" title=\"$WBD 20260109 30.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$WBD 20260109 30.0 CALL$  </a></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈亏分析：</strong></p></li></ul><p>最大亏损：权利金全额 =87美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：30.91美元</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：</strong>认为派拉蒙、奈飞竞购华纳兄弟的报价会提高至每股32美元</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3eeacc9129559f4a30bdf8b2cb865b6\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1383\"/></p><p><em>免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权策略 | 华纳兄弟并购案上演狗血剧情！不同情景下如何布局期权策略？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权策略 | 华纳兄弟并购案上演狗血剧情！不同情景下如何布局期权策略？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-16 11:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>华纳兄弟（ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC</a> ，WBD）并购案上演狗血剧情！12月5日， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a> （Netflix，NFLX）宣布将以现金加股票的方式，以827亿美元收购华纳兄弟探索公司旗下的核心影视业务，包括传奇的华纳兄弟制片厂、HBO电视网以及DC电影宇宙等宝贵IP。然而这场交易遭遇意外狙击。仅在三天后派拉蒙（ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSKY\">Paramount Skydance Corp</a> ，PSKY）发布公告，宣布对华纳兄弟发起敌意收购。派拉蒙提出以每股30美元的全现金方式收购华纳兄弟的全部流通股份，对应的华纳兄弟公司估值达到1084亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_4002993775\">时间线：</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>12月5日</strong></p></li></ul><p>2025年12月5日，美国媒体集团Netflix与华纳兄弟宣布已达成协议，Netflix将以现金加股票方式并购华纳兄弟的电影及电视制作业务。交易范围涵盖华纳兄弟旗下的收费电视及串流平台业务，包括HBO、HBO Max、DC娱乐／DC工作室，以及其庞大的内容库。整宗交易按企业价值计算达827亿美元（股权价值为720亿美元）。按照协议安排，在华纳兄弟探索完成计划中的拆分后，Netflix将以<strong>每股27.75美元</strong>收购华纳兄弟的股份。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>12月7日</strong></p></li></ul><p>美国总统特朗普对Netflix收购华纳兄弟的计划表达了明确的反垄断担忧，指出合并后实体的高市场份额可能构成监管障碍。这表明这笔价值720亿美元的交易正面临来自最高决策层的严峻审视，监管不确定性显著增加。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>12月8日</strong></p></li></ul><p>2025年12月8日，派拉蒙正式对华纳兄弟发动恶意收购，以<strong>每股30美元</strong>的全现金方案入市，对华纳兄弟的企业估值达1084亿美元。其股权部分估值410亿美元，由埃里森家族、红鸟资本、沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金、卡塔尔投资局及Affinity Partners提供资金支持，并获美国银行、花旗集团及阿波罗全球管理提供合共540亿美元贷款。派拉蒙声称其方案的现金规模比Netflix的建议多出约180亿美元。派拉蒙认为，若能成功合并，可凭借华纳兄弟的电影及电视资产，加上派拉蒙的广播与有线网络组合，建立一个更具规模的纵向整合娱乐及串流业务。华纳兄弟董事会则表示，将按受托义务审视建议。派拉蒙表示，其交易可于10至12个月内完成，而Netflix估计需时12至18个月。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>12月15日</strong></p></li></ul><p>奈飞公司（Netflix）表示，其收购华纳兄弟公司部分资产的立场并未发生变化。</p><p>奈飞公司联席首席执行官格雷格·彼得斯和特德·萨兰多斯在致员工信中称，派拉蒙天舞公司发起的敌意收购“完全在预料之中”，奈飞公司有信心通过监管审查。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>12月22日</strong></p></li></ul><p>华纳兄弟董事会必须在12月22日前对派拉蒙提案做出回应，这将决定好莱坞这场收购大战的最终走向。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>32美元</strong></p></li></ul><p>CreditSights分析师预计，如果谈判重启，派拉蒙可能将报价提升至<strong>每股32美元</strong>左右。</p><h2 id=\"id_3410828302\">不同情境下华纳兄弟（ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC</a> ，WBD）期权策略：</h2><h3 id=\"id_451309839\">1）假如派拉蒙以每股30美元的全现金方案赢得华纳兄弟并购案</h3><h4 id=\"id_3440818321\">①裸卖WBD看跌期权</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约构建：</strong>卖出一张2025年12月26日到期、行权价为29.5美元WBD看跌期权。</p></li></ul><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT\" title=\"$WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT$  </a></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈亏分析：</strong></p></li></ul><p>最大收益：权利金全额 =53美元</p><p>最大风险：若股价到期前跌破29.5美元，需按29.5美元的股价接盘100股</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：</strong>认为派拉蒙赢得华纳兄弟并购案，赚取权利金</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a781632877760802494c110a859daab\" tg-width=\"1166\" tg-height=\"1433\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_3824462230\">2）假如派拉蒙退出竞购，奈飞维持每股27.75美元的方案并赢得华纳兄弟并购案</h3><h4 id=\"id_2589857452\">①买入WBD看跌期权</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约构建：</strong>买入一张2025年12月26日到期、行权价为29.5美元WBD看跌期权。</p></li></ul><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT\" title=\"$WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT$  </a></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈亏分析：</strong></p></li></ul><p>最大亏损：权利金全额 =53美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：28.8美元</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：认为</strong>奈飞维持每股27.75美元的方案并赢得华纳兄弟并购案</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99e7800755c79b3a39e5184b9e0044df\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1392\"/></p><h4 id=\"id_101573478\">②卖出WBD虚值看涨期权</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约构建：</strong>卖出一张2025年12月26日到期、行权价为32.5美元WBD看涨期权。</p></li></ul><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WBD 20251226 32.5 CALL\" title=\"$WBD 20251226 32.5 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$WBD 20251226 32.5 CALL$  </a></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈亏分析：</strong></p></li></ul><p>最大收益：权利金全额 =46美元</p><p>最大风险：若股价到期前升破32.5美元，需按32.5美元的股价接盘100股，理论上亏损无上限</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：</strong>认为奈飞维持每股27.75美元的方案并赢得华纳兄弟并购案</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f943b17b33ea17af6ce94f924f0e6388\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1389\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_1870371707\">3）假如派拉蒙、奈飞竞购华纳兄弟的报价提高至每股32美元</h3><h4 id=\"id_2013951616\">①买入WBD看涨期权</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约构建：</strong>买入一张2026年1月9日到期、行权价为30美元WBD看涨期权。</p></li></ul><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WBD 20260109 30.0 CALL\" title=\"$WBD 20260109 30.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$WBD 20260109 30.0 CALL$  </a></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈亏分析：</strong></p></li></ul><p>最大亏损：权利金全额 =87美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：30.91美元</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：</strong>认为派拉蒙、奈飞竞购华纳兄弟的报价会提高至每股32美元</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3eeacc9129559f4a30bdf8b2cb865b6\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1383\"/></p><p><em>免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1fee845f5ab2c92f4cb53a78d96a7b50","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","PSKY":"Paramount Skydance Corp","WBD":"WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167394354","content_text":"华纳兄弟（ WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC ，WBD）并购案上演狗血剧情！12月5日， 奈飞 （Netflix，NFLX）宣布将以现金加股票的方式，以827亿美元收购华纳兄弟探索公司旗下的核心影视业务，包括传奇的华纳兄弟制片厂、HBO电视网以及DC电影宇宙等宝贵IP。然而这场交易遭遇意外狙击。仅在三天后派拉蒙（ Paramount Skydance Corp ，PSKY）发布公告，宣布对华纳兄弟发起敌意收购。派拉蒙提出以每股30美元的全现金方式收购华纳兄弟的全部流通股份，对应的华纳兄弟公司估值达到1084亿美元。时间线：12月5日2025年12月5日，美国媒体集团Netflix与华纳兄弟宣布已达成协议，Netflix将以现金加股票方式并购华纳兄弟的电影及电视制作业务。交易范围涵盖华纳兄弟旗下的收费电视及串流平台业务，包括HBO、HBO Max、DC娱乐／DC工作室，以及其庞大的内容库。整宗交易按企业价值计算达827亿美元（股权价值为720亿美元）。按照协议安排，在华纳兄弟探索完成计划中的拆分后，Netflix将以每股27.75美元收购华纳兄弟的股份。12月7日美国总统特朗普对Netflix收购华纳兄弟的计划表达了明确的反垄断担忧，指出合并后实体的高市场份额可能构成监管障碍。这表明这笔价值720亿美元的交易正面临来自最高决策层的严峻审视，监管不确定性显著增加。12月8日2025年12月8日，派拉蒙正式对华纳兄弟发动恶意收购，以每股30美元的全现金方案入市，对华纳兄弟的企业估值达1084亿美元。其股权部分估值410亿美元，由埃里森家族、红鸟资本、沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金、卡塔尔投资局及Affinity Partners提供资金支持，并获美国银行、花旗集团及阿波罗全球管理提供合共540亿美元贷款。派拉蒙声称其方案的现金规模比Netflix的建议多出约180亿美元。派拉蒙认为，若能成功合并，可凭借华纳兄弟的电影及电视资产，加上派拉蒙的广播与有线网络组合，建立一个更具规模的纵向整合娱乐及串流业务。华纳兄弟董事会则表示，将按受托义务审视建议。派拉蒙表示，其交易可于10至12个月内完成，而Netflix估计需时12至18个月。12月15日奈飞公司（Netflix）表示，其收购华纳兄弟公司部分资产的立场并未发生变化。奈飞公司联席首席执行官格雷格·彼得斯和特德·萨兰多斯在致员工信中称，派拉蒙天舞公司发起的敌意收购“完全在预料之中”，奈飞公司有信心通过监管审查。12月22日华纳兄弟董事会必须在12月22日前对派拉蒙提案做出回应，这将决定好莱坞这场收购大战的最终走向。32美元CreditSights分析师预计，如果谈判重启，派拉蒙可能将报价提升至每股32美元左右。不同情境下华纳兄弟（ WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC ，WBD）期权策略：1）假如派拉蒙以每股30美元的全现金方案赢得华纳兄弟并购案①裸卖WBD看跌期权合约构建：卖出一张2025年12月26日到期、行权价为29.5美元WBD看跌期权。‌$WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT$  盈亏分析：最大收益：权利金全额 =53美元最大风险：若股价到期前跌破29.5美元，需按29.5美元的股价接盘100股适用场景：认为派拉蒙赢得华纳兄弟并购案，赚取权利金2）假如派拉蒙退出竞购，奈飞维持每股27.75美元的方案并赢得华纳兄弟并购案①买入WBD看跌期权合约构建：买入一张2025年12月26日到期、行权价为29.5美元WBD看跌期权。‌$WBD 20251226 29.5 PUT$  盈亏分析：最大亏损：权利金全额 =53美元盈亏平衡点：28.8美元适用场景：认为奈飞维持每股27.75美元的方案并赢得华纳兄弟并购案②卖出WBD虚值看涨期权合约构建：卖出一张2025年12月26日到期、行权价为32.5美元WBD看涨期权。‌$WBD 20251226 32.5 CALL$  盈亏分析：最大收益：权利金全额 =46美元最大风险：若股价到期前升破32.5美元，需按32.5美元的股价接盘100股，理论上亏损无上限适用场景：认为奈飞维持每股27.75美元的方案并赢得华纳兄弟并购案3）假如派拉蒙、奈飞竞购华纳兄弟的报价提高至每股32美元①买入WBD看涨期权合约构建：买入一张2026年1月9日到期、行权价为30美元WBD看涨期权。‌$WBD 20260109 30.0 CALL$  盈亏分析：最大亏损：权利金全额 =87美元盈亏平衡点：30.91美元适用场景：认为派拉蒙、奈飞竞购华纳兄弟的报价会提高至每股32美元免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":2,"WBD":2,"PSKY":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":511902126539608,"gmtCreate":1766003138266,"gmtModify":1766003140696,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"跟上了，看好他的机器人","listText":"跟上了，看好他的机器人","text":"跟上了，看好他的机器人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511902126539608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511881386574024,"gmtCreate":1765997999463,"gmtModify":1765998001284,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511881386574024","repostId":"2592960168","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2592960168","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765960572,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2592960168?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-17 16:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"飙升的日债收益率：美股的灰犀牛？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592960168","media":"智通财经","summary":"但近期由于多种原因，需求疲软，导致债券价格下跌，收益率相应上升。债券投资者担心，日本央行加息将推高收益率，并压低现有债务的价值。目前，日本巨额债务负担已令人担忧。对于日本的寿险公司而言，债券收益率上升可能意味着其持有的国内债券组合将出现巨额账面损失。日本央行行长植田和男12月9日指出，长期债券收益率正以“较为快速”的速度上升。这可能导致美国国债收益率上升，进而引发美股动荡。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月初，日本长期债券收益率达到多年高位，表明投资者需求疲软，原因是担心日本政府支出增加以及12月19日可能加息。规模达7.5万亿美元的日本债券市场通常较为稳定，但近几个月来却经历了异常剧烈的波动，其中包括几次反响平平的政府债券拍卖。这场动荡始于5月份，当时20年期日本国债拍卖反响不佳，导致收益率飙升。当月晚些时候的40年期日本国债拍卖更是加剧了市场的动荡。</p><p>此前，持有该国一半以上主权债券的日本央行开始逐步缩减资产负债表并减少债券购买规模。问题在于，其他买家并未及时介入，填补日本央行撤资留下的市场缺口。日本央行政策的转变正值一个充满挑战的时刻，因为投资者正在审视全球政府财政支出的增长以及依靠出售债券来为这些支出融资的做法。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5abe38b1e434205b3163c4a3712c6817\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"381\"/></p><p>政府债券通常被认为是最安全的投资资产之一，因为发行方(政府)破产的可能性相对较低。这是因为政府可以自行制定规则，并且通常能够在需要时筹集资金。长期债券往往能为投资者提供相对较高的收益率和相对较低的风险，因为投资者同意并锁定相当长一段时间(例如20年或40年)的利率。</p><p>尤其是日本国债，几十年来一直被认为是全球最稳定的政府债券市场之一。但近期由于多种原因，需求疲软，导致债券价格下跌，收益率相应上升。</p><h2 id=\"id_1048572941\">2025年日债需求为何疲软?</h2><p>日本央行长期以来一直是日本国债的主要买家。直到最近，日本一直处于通货紧缩周期中，自上世纪90年代以来，这一周期被称为“失去的数十年”。购买日本国债，使政府能够发行更多债务并增加支出，一直是日本央行刺激经济战略的一部分。</p><p>但随着日本走出通缩，不再专注于通过购买债券来提振经济，日本央行已开始缩减其庞大的债券持有量，该持有量在2023年11月达到历史最高水平。但随着日本央行退出市场，其他买家不足以消化这些供应，导致需求疲软。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69dc7d99505b988c338210745f91669c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p>除了日本央行的抛售外，日本的财政刺激措施也引发了担忧。11月21日，日本政府批准了一项规模达21.3万亿日元(约合1370亿美元)的经济刺激计划，这是自疫情爆发以来日本政府规模最大的此类支出计划。此举令一些投资者感到不安，因为此类措施通常需要政府增加借贷，这意味着发行更多债券——在该情景中，额外发行的债券价值高达6.9万亿日元。通常情况下，债券供应量增加会导致价格下跌——而投资者不希望持有可能贬值的资产。</p><p>在12月19日日本央行预计宣布加息之前，债券需求也受到了影响。债券投资者担心，日本央行加息将推高收益率，并压低现有债务的价值。</p><p>尽管如此，已有迹象表明市场需求正在回升。12月4日发行的30年期日本国债获得了自2019年以来最强劲的需求。尤其是外国买家，他们正利用多年来最高的收益率进行投资，因为将日元兑本币进行对冲可以锁定额外收益。预计到2025年，他们将购买创纪录数量的日本国债，这将是自2005年开始追踪相关数据以来的最高年度购买量。</p><p>如果需求持续疲软，将会面临什么风险?</p><p>债券需求持续疲软，随之而来的收益率上升将推高日本各行各业的借贷成本，政府、企业和家庭都将受到影响。目前，日本巨额债务负担已令人担忧。</p><p>这也让日本央行陷入了困境，因为该央行既要平衡保持低借贷成本的呼声，又要平衡提高利率以控制通胀的需求。</p><p>对于日本的寿险公司而言，债券收益率上升可能意味着其持有的国内债券组合将出现巨额账面损失。日本四大寿险公司报告称，在最近一个财年，其国内债券持有的未实现损失总额约为600亿美元，约为上年同期的四倍。</p><h2 id=\"id_1930748169\">日本政府和日本央行是否在意？</h2><p>有迹象表明，日本央行和政府都对债券市场波动性加剧感到不安。</p><p>日本央行行长植田和男12月9日指出，长期债券收益率正以“较为快速”的速度上升。为避免市场动荡，日本央行计划放缓退出债券市场的步伐。从下一财年开始，日本央行将每季度减少2000亿日元的月度债券购买规模，而非目前的每季度减少4000亿日元。植田和男还表示，如有必要，日本央行将在特殊情况下增加债券购买规模以稳定市场。</p><p>日本政府也在努力避免给收益率带来压力。为了给刺激计划筹集资金，政府选择依靠短期债务——分别增发3000亿日元的两年期和五年期债券——而不是依赖长期债券。9月，日本财政部还提议在 10 月和 12 月的拍卖中减少 1000 亿日元的超长期政府债券发行量。</p><p>不过，日本首相高市早苗近日表示，政府更应关注经济增长而非收益率上升。她指出，财政政策对收益率波动的影响无法单独评估。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129be846c2bb0fb48306a4fe2868afbe\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"336\"/></p><p>而且自美国总统特朗普4月公布“解放日”关税政策以来，全球许多主要市场的长期债券均出现暴跌，通胀风险加剧，收益率也随之走高。然而，日本长期债券的跌幅尤为剧烈。</p><p>此外，交易员们越来越押注一些央行明年将放缓或停止货币宽松政策，这将进一步抑制日本以外地区对债券的需求，从而加剧收益率的上行压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_2964039090\">对全球市场有何影响?</h2><p>日本债券收益率上升对当今美国乃至全球金融市场都至关重要。多年来，日本一直饱受通缩之苦，自2016年起，日本央行便开始实施收益率控制政策。在该政策下，日本央行将短期贷款利率维持在负值水平，并力求将10年期日本国债利率保持在零。这些低利率，加上世界其他地区远高于日本的利率，促使全球投资者以日元借款，并用日元为其以其他货币进行的投资融资。</p><p>全球金融市场面临的挑战是，日本国债与美国国债利差的收窄可能导致日本套利交易的平仓，并促使日本<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>将资金回流至日本。分析指出，日元大幅升值可能会加剧这一进程，目前日元的估值估计被低估了15%至20%。</p><p>例如，2024年8月，当时日本国债收益率飙升，市场波动性也随之急剧增加。这给那些进行“日元套利交易”的投资者带来了困境。这类交易是指以低利率借入日元，然后将其兑换成美元投资于美国资产，例如股票。当日本利率上升时，投资者可能被迫平仓以应对更高的借贷成本。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d112bc73e5c2231c4e9b9d92981beb8\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"319\"/></p><p>尽管对日本套利交易的规模估计不一，但普遍认为至少有5000亿美元，而这似乎为全球金融市场的上涨提供了强有力的支撑，若被平仓势必将给全球金融市场带来冲击。</p><p>11月，自称“超级看跌者”的法兴银行策略师Albert Edwards表示，担心美股牛市能否持续的投资者应关注日本债券收益率。Edwards早在 5 月份就表示，日本债券收益率飙升是自 2008 年危机以来债券收益率被压低的制度开始以来，全球市场面临的最大风险。</p><p>Edwards认为，日本历来是重大金融转折的早期预警点，并补充说，日本机构可能会将资金调回国内，从而逆转多年来以日元融资的套利交易以及大量购买外国债券(包括美国国债)的趋势。</p><p>而且日本套利交易的潜在平仓时机对美国来说十分尴尬。正值特朗普大幅减税政策导致美国政府年度预算赤字飙升至约2万亿美元之际。美国政府最不希望看到的就是其主要债权国之一抛售国债。这可能导致美国国债收益率上升，进而引发美股动荡。</p><p>Edwards警告称，由于美国国债和股票都得益于日本持续的资金流入，美国市场易受冲击。他表示，如果日本国债收益率上升促使国内投资者回流，那么资金的撤离可能会重创美国资产，并给美元带来压力。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>飙升的日债收益率：美股的灰犀牛？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n飙升的日债收益率：美股的灰犀牛？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-17 16:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382550.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月初，日本长期债券收益率达到多年高位，表明投资者需求疲软，原因是担心日本政府支出增加以及12月19日可能加息。规模达7.5万亿美元的日本债券市场通常较为稳定，但近几个月来却经历了异常剧烈的波动，其中包括几次反响平平的政府债券拍卖。这场动荡始于5月份，当时20年期日本国债拍卖反响不佳，导致收益率飙升。当月晚些时候的40年期日本国债拍卖更是加剧了市场的动荡。此前，持有该国一半以上主权债券的日本央行...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382550.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382550.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2592960168","content_text":"12月初，日本长期债券收益率达到多年高位，表明投资者需求疲软，原因是担心日本政府支出增加以及12月19日可能加息。规模达7.5万亿美元的日本债券市场通常较为稳定，但近几个月来却经历了异常剧烈的波动，其中包括几次反响平平的政府债券拍卖。这场动荡始于5月份，当时20年期日本国债拍卖反响不佳，导致收益率飙升。当月晚些时候的40年期日本国债拍卖更是加剧了市场的动荡。此前，持有该国一半以上主权债券的日本央行开始逐步缩减资产负债表并减少债券购买规模。问题在于，其他买家并未及时介入，填补日本央行撤资留下的市场缺口。日本央行政策的转变正值一个充满挑战的时刻，因为投资者正在审视全球政府财政支出的增长以及依靠出售债券来为这些支出融资的做法。政府债券通常被认为是最安全的投资资产之一，因为发行方(政府)破产的可能性相对较低。这是因为政府可以自行制定规则，并且通常能够在需要时筹集资金。长期债券往往能为投资者提供相对较高的收益率和相对较低的风险，因为投资者同意并锁定相当长一段时间(例如20年或40年)的利率。尤其是日本国债，几十年来一直被认为是全球最稳定的政府债券市场之一。但近期由于多种原因，需求疲软，导致债券价格下跌，收益率相应上升。2025年日债需求为何疲软?日本央行长期以来一直是日本国债的主要买家。直到最近，日本一直处于通货紧缩周期中，自上世纪90年代以来，这一周期被称为“失去的数十年”。购买日本国债，使政府能够发行更多债务并增加支出，一直是日本央行刺激经济战略的一部分。但随着日本走出通缩，不再专注于通过购买债券来提振经济，日本央行已开始缩减其庞大的债券持有量，该持有量在2023年11月达到历史最高水平。但随着日本央行退出市场，其他买家不足以消化这些供应，导致需求疲软。除了日本央行的抛售外，日本的财政刺激措施也引发了担忧。11月21日，日本政府批准了一项规模达21.3万亿日元(约合1370亿美元)的经济刺激计划，这是自疫情爆发以来日本政府规模最大的此类支出计划。此举令一些投资者感到不安，因为此类措施通常需要政府增加借贷，这意味着发行更多债券——在该情景中，额外发行的债券价值高达6.9万亿日元。通常情况下，债券供应量增加会导致价格下跌——而投资者不希望持有可能贬值的资产。在12月19日日本央行预计宣布加息之前，债券需求也受到了影响。债券投资者担心，日本央行加息将推高收益率，并压低现有债务的价值。尽管如此，已有迹象表明市场需求正在回升。12月4日发行的30年期日本国债获得了自2019年以来最强劲的需求。尤其是外国买家，他们正利用多年来最高的收益率进行投资，因为将日元兑本币进行对冲可以锁定额外收益。预计到2025年，他们将购买创纪录数量的日本国债，这将是自2005年开始追踪相关数据以来的最高年度购买量。如果需求持续疲软，将会面临什么风险?债券需求持续疲软，随之而来的收益率上升将推高日本各行各业的借贷成本，政府、企业和家庭都将受到影响。目前，日本巨额债务负担已令人担忧。这也让日本央行陷入了困境，因为该央行既要平衡保持低借贷成本的呼声，又要平衡提高利率以控制通胀的需求。对于日本的寿险公司而言，债券收益率上升可能意味着其持有的国内债券组合将出现巨额账面损失。日本四大寿险公司报告称，在最近一个财年，其国内债券持有的未实现损失总额约为600亿美元，约为上年同期的四倍。日本政府和日本央行是否在意？有迹象表明，日本央行和政府都对债券市场波动性加剧感到不安。日本央行行长植田和男12月9日指出，长期债券收益率正以“较为快速”的速度上升。为避免市场动荡，日本央行计划放缓退出债券市场的步伐。从下一财年开始，日本央行将每季度减少2000亿日元的月度债券购买规模，而非目前的每季度减少4000亿日元。植田和男还表示，如有必要，日本央行将在特殊情况下增加债券购买规模以稳定市场。日本政府也在努力避免给收益率带来压力。为了给刺激计划筹集资金，政府选择依靠短期债务——分别增发3000亿日元的两年期和五年期债券——而不是依赖长期债券。9月，日本财政部还提议在 10 月和 12 月的拍卖中减少 1000 亿日元的超长期政府债券发行量。不过，日本首相高市早苗近日表示，政府更应关注经济增长而非收益率上升。她指出，财政政策对收益率波动的影响无法单独评估。而且自美国总统特朗普4月公布“解放日”关税政策以来，全球许多主要市场的长期债券均出现暴跌，通胀风险加剧，收益率也随之走高。然而，日本长期债券的跌幅尤为剧烈。此外，交易员们越来越押注一些央行明年将放缓或停止货币宽松政策，这将进一步抑制日本以外地区对债券的需求，从而加剧收益率的上行压力。对全球市场有何影响?日本债券收益率上升对当今美国乃至全球金融市场都至关重要。多年来，日本一直饱受通缩之苦，自2016年起，日本央行便开始实施收益率控制政策。在该政策下，日本央行将短期贷款利率维持在负值水平，并力求将10年期日本国债利率保持在零。这些低利率，加上世界其他地区远高于日本的利率，促使全球投资者以日元借款，并用日元为其以其他货币进行的投资融资。全球金融市场面临的挑战是，日本国债与美国国债利差的收窄可能导致日本套利交易的平仓，并促使日本金融机构将资金回流至日本。分析指出，日元大幅升值可能会加剧这一进程，目前日元的估值估计被低估了15%至20%。例如，2024年8月，当时日本国债收益率飙升，市场波动性也随之急剧增加。这给那些进行“日元套利交易”的投资者带来了困境。这类交易是指以低利率借入日元，然后将其兑换成美元投资于美国资产，例如股票。当日本利率上升时，投资者可能被迫平仓以应对更高的借贷成本。尽管对日本套利交易的规模估计不一，但普遍认为至少有5000亿美元，而这似乎为全球金融市场的上涨提供了强有力的支撑，若被平仓势必将给全球金融市场带来冲击。11月，自称“超级看跌者”的法兴银行策略师Albert Edwards表示，担心美股牛市能否持续的投资者应关注日本债券收益率。Edwards早在 5 月份就表示，日本债券收益率飙升是自 2008 年危机以来债券收益率被压低的制度开始以来，全球市场面临的最大风险。Edwards认为，日本历来是重大金融转折的早期预警点，并补充说，日本机构可能会将资金调回国内，从而逆转多年来以日元融资的套利交易以及大量购买外国债券(包括美国国债)的趋势。而且日本套利交易的潜在平仓时机对美国来说十分尴尬。正值特朗普大幅减税政策导致美国政府年度预算赤字飙升至约2万亿美元之际。美国政府最不希望看到的就是其主要债权国之一抛售国债。这可能导致美国国债收益率上升，进而引发美股动荡。Edwards警告称，由于美国国债和股票都得益于日本持续的资金流入，美国市场易受冲击。他表示，如果日本国债收益率上升促使国内投资者回流，那么资金的撤离可能会重创美国资产，并给美元带来压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":2,".IXIC":2,".DJI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":508999400571752,"gmtCreate":1765298847021,"gmtModify":1765298849555,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英伟达在目前人工智能应用大爆发的现阶段，对中国市场的解禁是极大的利好！后续应有一段不错的行情[强]","listText":"英伟达在目前人工智能应用大爆发的现阶段，对中国市场的解禁是极大的利好！后续应有一段不错的行情[强]","text":"英伟达在目前人工智能应用大爆发的现阶段，对中国市场的解禁是极大的利好！后续应有一段不错的行情[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/508999400571752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000421","authorId":"9000000000000421","name":"PhoenixWhitman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37be0080dc856be806ee57c561c89e79","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000421","idStr":"9000000000000421"},"content":"NV这波真的要起飞了，坐等吃肉！","text":"NV这波真的要起飞了，坐等吃肉！","html":"NV这波真的要起飞了，坐等吃肉！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507790581797176,"gmtCreate":1764952744526,"gmtModify":1764952746695,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507790581797176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":507756107374888,"gmtCreate":1764943721907,"gmtModify":1764943724547,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美团与阿里，当然选阿里！阿里从行业与经营上都比美团有优势！","listText":"美团与阿里，当然选阿里！阿里从行业与经营上都比美团有优势！","text":"美团与阿里，当然选阿里！阿里从行业与经营上都比美团有优势！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507756107374888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507452979331256,"gmtCreate":1764865968949,"gmtModify":1764865970627,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507452979331256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":507229629456464,"gmtCreate":1764865941037,"gmtModify":1764865942791,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507229629456464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":506875705856856,"gmtCreate":1764779612563,"gmtModify":1764779614447,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"，1","listText":"，1","text":"，1","images":[],"top":1,"high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23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198185238","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。这份报告是美联储12月9日至10日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。员工少于50人的企业11月减少12万个岗位，为2020年5月以来最大单月降幅，成为拖累整体就业的主要因素。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国11月私营部门出现近两年来最大规模裁员，就业岗位减少3.2万个，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。这一数据凸显在美联储政策转向关键时刻，就业市场面临的压力正在加大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c814666c27c1cc1ef673dedce5dcdd27\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">小型企业成为裁员重灾区。<strong>员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。</strong>相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">薪资增速同步放缓。<strong>留任员工的薪资同比增长4.4%，较10月下降0.1个百分点</strong>。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，雇主正在应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，招聘活动近期波动明显。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份报告是美联储12月9日至10日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。期货交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对是否需要进一步放松政策存在疑虑。</p><h2 id=\"id_3536275615\">小型企业遭遇裁员潮</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">劳动力市场的疲软主要集中在小型企业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">员工少于50人的企业11月减少12万个岗位，<strong>为2020年5月以来最大单月降幅</strong>，成为拖累整体就业的主要因素。其中，20至49人规模的企业裁员<strong>7.4万人</strong>，贡献了小型企业裁员总量的大部分。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed1d4a9fa1d44c84fecd7234e49f1253\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"680\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此形成鲜明对比的是，员工数达到50人以上的大型企业实际净增9万个岗位，显示不同规模企业在当前经济环境下的抗压能力存在显著差异。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一总计3.2万人的就业下滑，较10月上修后的增加4.7万个岗位出现急剧转向。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson在声明中表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;近期招聘一直不稳定，雇主正应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，11月的放缓具有广泛性，但主要由小企业的收缩引领。&#34;</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1065308018\">行业表现分化明显</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就业数据在行业层面呈现广泛下滑趋势。专业和商业服务业裁员2.6万人，成为减员最多的行业。信息服务业减少2万个岗位，制造业裁员1.8万人，金融活动和建筑业各减少9000个岗位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">仅有少数行业实现就业增长。教育和医疗服务业领涨，新增3.3万个岗位，休闲和酒店业增加1.3万个岗位。但这些增长不足以抵消其他行业的广泛下滑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85d4c02206352ee630f006026b2466a5\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"1779\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_154258377\">薪资增长降温</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">劳动力市场走弱的迹象同样体现在薪资数据上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ADP与斯坦福数字经济实验室合作发布的报告显示，跳槽者的薪资增幅为6.3%，为2021年2月以来最低水平。<strong>留在原岗位的员工薪资增幅为4.4%</strong>。该数据基于覆盖超过2600万美国私营部门雇员的工资单。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd985990d600cb8a5b09f8f9822f8d3\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"532\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据报道，直到最近，经济学家还普遍认为劳动力市场处于低招聘、低解雇状态，但包括苹果公司和Verizon Communications在内的多家大型企业近期已裁员或宣布裁员计划，这可能推动失业率上升。</p><h2 id=\"id_4077836169\">美联储面临政策抉择</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份报告将成为美联储12月政策会议前的重要参考。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期货市场显示，交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对进一步放松政策持保留态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近几周，美联储政策制定者的观点出现分歧。一方认为降息是防止劳动力市场进一步恶化的必要手段，另一方则担心额外降息可能加剧通胀，而通胀水平仍显著高于美联储2%的目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国劳工统计局将于12月16日发布官方非农就业数据，该日期因政府关门而有所推迟。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-03 23:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760652><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。美国11月私营部门出现近两年来最大规模裁员，就业岗位减少3.2万个，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现。12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760652\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760652","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198185238","content_text":"ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。美国11月私营部门出现近两年来最大规模裁员，就业岗位减少3.2万个，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现。12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。这一数据凸显在美联储政策转向关键时刻，就业市场面临的压力正在加大。小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。薪资增速同步放缓。留任员工的薪资同比增长4.4%，较10月下降0.1个百分点。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，雇主正在应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，招聘活动近期波动明显。这份报告是美联储12月9日至10日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。期货交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对是否需要进一步放松政策存在疑虑。小型企业遭遇裁员潮劳动力市场的疲软主要集中在小型企业。员工少于50人的企业11月减少12万个岗位，为2020年5月以来最大单月降幅，成为拖累整体就业的主要因素。其中，20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人，贡献了小型企业裁员总量的大部分。与此形成鲜明对比的是，员工数达到50人以上的大型企业实际净增9万个岗位，显示不同规模企业在当前经济环境下的抗压能力存在显著差异。这一总计3.2万人的就业下滑，较10月上修后的增加4.7万个岗位出现急剧转向。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson在声明中表示：\"近期招聘一直不稳定，雇主正应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，11月的放缓具有广泛性，但主要由小企业的收缩引领。\"行业表现分化明显就业数据在行业层面呈现广泛下滑趋势。专业和商业服务业裁员2.6万人，成为减员最多的行业。信息服务业减少2万个岗位，制造业裁员1.8万人，金融活动和建筑业各减少9000个岗位。仅有少数行业实现就业增长。教育和医疗服务业领涨，新增3.3万个岗位，休闲和酒店业增加1.3万个岗位。但这些增长不足以抵消其他行业的广泛下滑。薪资增长降温劳动力市场走弱的迹象同样体现在薪资数据上。ADP与斯坦福数字经济实验室合作发布的报告显示，跳槽者的薪资增幅为6.3%，为2021年2月以来最低水平。留在原岗位的员工薪资增幅为4.4%。该数据基于覆盖超过2600万美国私营部门雇员的工资单。据报道，直到最近，经济学家还普遍认为劳动力市场处于低招聘、低解雇状态，但包括苹果公司和Verizon Communications在内的多家大型企业近期已裁员或宣布裁员计划，这可能推动失业率上升。美联储面临政策抉择这份报告将成为美联储12月政策会议前的重要参考。期货市场显示，交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对进一步放松政策持保留态度。近几周，美联储政策制定者的观点出现分歧。一方认为降息是防止劳动力市场进一步恶化的必要手段，另一方则担心额外降息可能加剧通胀，而通胀水平仍显著高于美联储2%的目标。美国劳工统计局将于12月16日发布官方非农就业数据，该日期因政府关门而有所推迟。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":506515989648320,"gmtCreate":1764691805556,"gmtModify":1764691807900,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"上串下跳的，没个准！","listText":"上串下跳的，没个准！","text":"上串下跳的，没个准！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/506515989648320","repostId":"1115073010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115073010","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1764686115,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115073010?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-02 22:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股异动 | 加密货币概念股上涨，BitMine涨超7%，Strategy涨近7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115073010","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月2日，加密货币概念股盘初上涨，$BitMine(BMNR)$涨超7%，$Strategy(MSTR)$涨近7%，$CleanSpark(CLSK)$涨超4%，$MARA Holdings(MARA)$、$Robinhood(HOOD)$、$Coinbase(COIN)$、$Circle(CRCL)$跟涨。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月2日，加密货币概念股盘初上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMNR\">BitMine</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">Strategy</a>涨近7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLSK\">CleanSpark</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">MARA Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">Circle</a>跟涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da722b79618ed4a5065f3c68801e5227\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"395\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-02 22:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>12月2日，加密货币概念股盘初上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMNR\">BitMine</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">Strategy</a>涨近7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLSK\">CleanSpark</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">MARA Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">Circle</a>跟涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da722b79618ed4a5065f3c68801e5227\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"395\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9712b6f035d7a01dae3855140d621802","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","BMNR":"BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.","BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4595":"比特币概念","BK4596":"哈里斯概念","BK4600":"加密货币概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4516":"特朗普概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115073010","content_text":"12月2日，加密货币概念股盘初上涨，BitMine涨超7%，Strategy涨近7%，CleanSpark涨超4%，MARA 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[开心]"},{"author":{"id":"3579066292341739","authorId":"3579066292341739","name":"种田专业","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a1989c278270e8def069ec695c142d6","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3579066292341739","idStr":"3579066292341739"},"content":"不仅失去中国市场，还有中国芯片产品的低价海量出口，你说未来他凭什么好","text":"不仅失去中国市场，还有中国芯片产品的低价海量出口，你说未来他凭什么好","html":"不仅失去中国市场，还有中国芯片产品的低价海量出口，你说未来他凭什么好"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":272216815050792,"gmtCreate":1707496948460,"gmtModify":1707496950442,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在此新春佳节来临之际，[抱拳]感恩有老虎🐯，恭祝虎友们新春快乐，阖家幸福，龙年吉祥！！[烟花][爆竹][爆竹][爆竹]","listText":"在此新春佳节来临之际，[抱拳]感恩有老虎🐯，恭祝虎友们新春快乐，阖家幸福，龙年吉祥！！[烟花][爆竹][爆竹][爆竹]","text":"在此新春佳节来临之际，[抱拳]感恩有老虎🐯，恭祝虎友们新春快乐，阖家幸福，龙年吉祥！！[烟花][爆竹][爆竹][爆竹]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/272216815050792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":420142929453184,"gmtCreate":1743604829768,"gmtModify":1743604831618,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/420142929453184","repostId":"257180022820912","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":257180022820912,"gmtCreate":1703816885478,"gmtModify":1703817226899,"author":{"id":"4093504281887960","authorId":"4093504281887960","name":"芝士虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3a05d038882153678ee817929431fc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093504281887960","idStr":"4093504281887960"},"themes":[],"title":"5.想做买方，又害怕时间价值衰减，这个策略完美解决！","htmlText":"虎友，你好欢迎来到期权芝士专栏-高阶策略篇第五期！我们知道，期权买方杠杆大，亏损有限，尤其是做末日轮，可以以有限的亏损博取几十倍甚至上百倍的收益，然而无论是期权小白还是投资老手都知道期权交易有句话叫做：时间是卖方的朋友，买方的敌人，这一点我们在之前的文章中<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/189347982880944\">Day4.为什么股价没涨没跌，但是期权却在亏钱</a>也提到过，所以虽然做买方可以以小博大，但是时间价值流逝风险也使得买方的胜率往往都比较低。这一点也让很多刚进期权市场的新手痛苦不已，如何既能享受买方的杠杆收益，又能对冲掉时间价值流逝风险呢？今天芝士虎给大家介绍的风险反转策略（risk reverse）就可以实现！一、什么是风险反转策略？所谓风险反转策略，其实就是在买入一个看涨期权的同时，再卖出一个看跌期权，或者在买入一个看跌期权的同时再卖出一个看涨期权，只是前者的方向是看多，后者的方向是看空。这个策略和我们以前介绍的组合期权策略不同的是，该策略虽然是多腿策略，但是却是一个不折不扣的方向性策略，也就是在赌股价单方向的上涨或者下跌。举个例子，假如我们认为12月29号之前特斯拉的股价会上涨，我们就可以在买入执行价为252.5美元的看涨期权的同时再卖出执行价为252.5美元的看跌期权，到期日选12月29号。权利金净支出为0.34美元（5.15-4.81）如果未来特斯拉的股价真的上涨，买入的看涨期权和卖出的看跌期权都是赚钱的，反之则亏钱。既然是赌方向，相对于直接买入看涨期权，该策略的好处是什么呢？首先，该策略解决了我们前面提到的买方要承担时间价值衰减的损失问题，因为卖出的看跌期权带来的时间价值收益可以抵消掉买入看涨期权的时间价值衰减损失，也就是对冲了theta风险。其次，由于风险反转策略是在买入看涨期权的同时多卖出了一个看跌","listText":"虎友，你好欢迎来到期权芝士专栏-高阶策略篇第五期！我们知道，期权买方杠杆大，亏损有限，尤其是做末日轮，可以以有限的亏损博取几十倍甚至上百倍的收益，然而无论是期权小白还是投资老手都知道期权交易有句话叫做：时间是卖方的朋友，买方的敌人，这一点我们在之前的文章中<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/189347982880944\">Day4.为什么股价没涨没跌，但是期权却在亏钱</a>也提到过，所以虽然做买方可以以小博大，但是时间价值流逝风险也使得买方的胜率往往都比较低。这一点也让很多刚进期权市场的新手痛苦不已，如何既能享受买方的杠杆收益，又能对冲掉时间价值流逝风险呢？今天芝士虎给大家介绍的风险反转策略（risk reverse）就可以实现！一、什么是风险反转策略？所谓风险反转策略，其实就是在买入一个看涨期权的同时，再卖出一个看跌期权，或者在买入一个看跌期权的同时再卖出一个看涨期权，只是前者的方向是看多，后者的方向是看空。这个策略和我们以前介绍的组合期权策略不同的是，该策略虽然是多腿策略，但是却是一个不折不扣的方向性策略，也就是在赌股价单方向的上涨或者下跌。举个例子，假如我们认为12月29号之前特斯拉的股价会上涨，我们就可以在买入执行价为252.5美元的看涨期权的同时再卖出执行价为252.5美元的看跌期权，到期日选12月29号。权利金净支出为0.34美元（5.15-4.81）如果未来特斯拉的股价真的上涨，买入的看涨期权和卖出的看跌期权都是赚钱的，反之则亏钱。既然是赌方向，相对于直接买入看涨期权，该策略的好处是什么呢？首先，该策略解决了我们前面提到的买方要承担时间价值衰减的损失问题，因为卖出的看跌期权带来的时间价值收益可以抵消掉买入看涨期权的时间价值衰减损失，也就是对冲了theta风险。其次，由于风险反转策略是在买入看涨期权的同时多卖出了一个看跌","text":"虎友，你好欢迎来到期权芝士专栏-高阶策略篇第五期！我们知道，期权买方杠杆大，亏损有限，尤其是做末日轮，可以以有限的亏损博取几十倍甚至上百倍的收益，然而无论是期权小白还是投资老手都知道期权交易有句话叫做：时间是卖方的朋友，买方的敌人，这一点我们在之前的文章中Day4.为什么股价没涨没跌，但是期权却在亏钱也提到过，所以虽然做买方可以以小博大，但是时间价值流逝风险也使得买方的胜率往往都比较低。这一点也让很多刚进期权市场的新手痛苦不已，如何既能享受买方的杠杆收益，又能对冲掉时间价值流逝风险呢？今天芝士虎给大家介绍的风险反转策略（risk reverse）就可以实现！一、什么是风险反转策略？所谓风险反转策略，其实就是在买入一个看涨期权的同时，再卖出一个看跌期权，或者在买入一个看跌期权的同时再卖出一个看涨期权，只是前者的方向是看多，后者的方向是看空。这个策略和我们以前介绍的组合期权策略不同的是，该策略虽然是多腿策略，但是却是一个不折不扣的方向性策略，也就是在赌股价单方向的上涨或者下跌。举个例子，假如我们认为12月29号之前特斯拉的股价会上涨，我们就可以在买入执行价为252.5美元的看涨期权的同时再卖出执行价为252.5美元的看跌期权，到期日选12月29号。权利金净支出为0.34美元（5.15-4.81）如果未来特斯拉的股价真的上涨，买入的看涨期权和卖出的看跌期权都是赚钱的，反之则亏钱。既然是赌方向，相对于直接买入看涨期权，该策略的好处是什么呢？首先，该策略解决了我们前面提到的买方要承担时间价值衰减的损失问题，因为卖出的看跌期权带来的时间价值收益可以抵消掉买入看涨期权的时间价值衰减损失，也就是对冲了theta风险。其次，由于风险反转策略是在买入看涨期权的同时多卖出了一个看跌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74beb5b512189e7725e79a9a0d78e274","width":"1080","height":"1920"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37899d3dd7e703fa31a667a21b183fa8","width":"1080","height":"2338"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d625e4cd8b87da3ad2a584150d9c301","width":"961","height":"540"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/257180022820912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293942195069088,"gmtCreate":1712793750677,"gmtModify":1712793752470,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"但愿能持续！","listText":"但愿能持续！","text":"但愿能持续！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293942195069088","repostId":"1149446579","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149446579","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1712717603,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149446579?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-10 10:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"IPO热点速览｜港股打新开启春日回暖模式？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149446579","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月10日，港股打新开启春日回暖模式？近期10支港股IPO新股，共计8支首日上涨，2支下跌。截至4月8日收盘，4支累计上涨翻倍，过半数累计上涨超50%！","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月10日，港股打新开启春日回暖模式？近期10支港股IPO新股，共计8支首日上涨，2支下跌。截至4月8日收盘，4支累计上涨翻倍，过半数累计上涨超50%！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb63cbe9ea2572ee38fcbd22b69e9fca\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1888\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IPO热点速览｜港股打新开启春日回暖模式？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIPO热点速览｜港股打新开启春日回暖模式？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-04-10 10:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月10日，港股打新开启春日回暖模式？近期10支港股IPO新股，共计8支首日上涨，2支下跌。截至4月8日收盘，4支累计上涨翻倍，过半数累计上涨超50%！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb63cbe9ea2572ee38fcbd22b69e9fca\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1888\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"09879":"米高集团","02497":"富景中国控股","HSI":"恒生指数","02477":"经纬天地","02535":"泓基集团","02509":"荃信生物-B","02598":"连连数字","02540":"乐思集团","02536":"百乐皇宫","06959":"长久股份","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02453":"美中嘉和"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149446579","content_text":"4月10日，港股打新开启春日回暖模式？近期10支港股IPO新股，共计8支首日上涨，2支下跌。截至4月8日收盘，4支累计上涨翻倍，过半数累计上涨超50%！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02509":1.1,"02535":1.1,"02536":1.1,"09879":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1,"02497":1.1,"HSI":1.1,"02598":1.1,"02477":1.1,"02540":1.1,"06959":1.1,"02453":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":452093288862048,"gmtCreate":1751400198814,"gmtModify":1751400200133,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/452093288862048","repostId":"1112804616","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1112804616","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1751378623,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112804616?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-01 22:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"BMNR继续暴涨，昨日狂飙近7倍，将巨额融资以执行ETH储备策略","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112804616","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"此前宣布2.5亿美元融资执行ETH储备策略。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周二，比特币概念股BitMine Immersion Technologies暴涨超50%，昨日狂飙近7倍，此前宣布2.5亿美元融资执行ETH储备策略。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d53f93c900d63b09726df871257ceb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BMNR继续暴涨，昨日狂飙近7倍，将巨额融资以执行ETH储备策略</title>\n<style 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Immersion Technologies暴涨超50%，昨日狂飙近7倍，此前宣布2.5亿美元融资执行ETH储备策略。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d53f93c900d63b09726df871257ceb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99b324a3231dc7b1971a1ef37e384338","relate_stocks":{"BMNR":"BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112804616","content_text":"周二，比特币概念股BitMine Immersion Technologies暴涨超50%，昨日狂飙近7倍，此前宣布2.5亿美元融资执行ETH储备策略。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BMNR":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":297000822485280,"gmtCreate":1713538702590,"gmtModify":1713538704364,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阅[眼眼]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"阅[眼眼]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"阅[眼眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297000822485280","repostId":"2428654463","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428654463","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1713535592,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428654463?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-19 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股“抄底”机会来了？专家：建议逢低买入，标普500有望升破5400点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428654463","media":"智通财经","summary":"她说，标普500指数在2023年上涨24%之后，在第一季度飙升10%，创下自2019年以来的最佳开局，连续三周的暴跌是交易员的一次健康整合。从现在开始，Colton Grant预计，基于强劲的盈利增长和持续的经济势头，这轮涨势不仅会恢复，而且会扩大，有可能在2024年收盘前将推高标普500指数升破5400点。标普500指数预计将连续第三周下跌，因在一系列火热的通胀报告出炉后，投资者降低了对美联储降息的预期。纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门预计2024年美股盈利将增长11%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">纽约梅隆银行</a>财富管理部门首席投资官Sinead Colton Grant表示，美国股市从上月底创下的历史高点回落，给持有现金的投资者提供了买入的机会。她说，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在2023年上涨24%之后，在第一季度飙升10%，创下自2019年以来的最佳开局，连续三周的暴跌是交易员的一次健康整合。从现在开始，Colton Grant预计，基于强劲的盈利增长和持续的经济势头，这轮涨势不仅会恢复，而且会扩大，有可能在2024年收盘前将推高标普500指数升破5400点。</p><p>她在接受采访时表示:“历史上有很多这样的例子，投资者等待找到绝对低点，却错过了时机，所以如果你有资金可以配置，现在是开始增加敞口的好时机。这是一个迷人的市场，对投资者来说，最糟糕的事情就是完全持有现金。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92464c1e9b020d305de787d38e516ce9\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p>纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门增持美国大盘股，相对于国际和新兴市场股票，它更喜欢美国大盘股。虽然美国股市的市盈率高于其他市场，但Colton Grant表示喜欢大公司产生的自由现金流。她尤其看好科技、医疗保健和工业板块。</p><p>标普500指数预计将连续第三周下跌，因在一系列火热的通胀报告出炉后，投资者降低了对美联储降息的预期。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)周四重申，他认为年底前降息都是不合适的。</p><p>但一直以来，纽约梅隆银行的降息预期都低于市场对今年降息幅度的预期。当投资者预期是六次降息时，该行的预期为四次。现在，该行只预计美联储将在12月份降息一次。Colton Grant表示：&#34;我们首次看到市场真正对降息预期降低做出反应，我认为这是健康的。&#34;她指出，今年年初，随着交易商缩减降息押注，股市几乎没有反应。</p><p>财报是股市从目前水平上涨的关键。纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门预计2024年美股盈利将增长11%。Colton Grant认为，美联储是否降息并不重要。她说，由于自2008年金融危机以来的大部分时间里，利率一直处于接近于零的水平，一种观点认为，股市需要接近于零的利率和接近2%的通胀率才能表现良好。但对她来说，这是有缺陷的逻辑。</p><p>Colton Grant表示:“股市可以在2%至4%的通胀率范围内表现良好，而我们目前的通胀率正是2%至4%。当我们的通胀率超过5%，并朝着两位数的方向发展时，问题就出现了，就像2022年那样。但我们认为，目前对股市来说，实际上是一个相当有利的环境。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股“抄底”机会来了？专家：建议逢低买入，标普500有望升破5400点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股“抄底”机会来了？专家：建议逢低买入，标普500有望升破5400点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-19 22:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105844.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门首席投资官Sinead Colton Grant表示，美国股市从上月底创下的历史高点回落，给持有现金的投资者提供了买入的机会。她说，标普500指数在2023年上涨24%之后，在第一季度飙升10%，创下自2019年以来的最佳开局，连续三周的暴跌是交易员的一次健康整合。从现在开始，Colton Grant预计，基于强劲的盈利增长和持续的经济势头，这轮涨势不仅会恢复，而且会扩大，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105844.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Bostic)周四重申，他认为年底前降息都是不合适的。但一直以来，纽约梅隆银行的降息预期都低于市场对今年降息幅度的预期。当投资者预期是六次降息时，该行的预期为四次。现在，该行只预计美联储将在12月份降息一次。Colton Grant表示：\"我们首次看到市场真正对降息预期降低做出反应，我认为这是健康的。\"她指出，今年年初，随着交易商缩减降息押注，股市几乎没有反应。财报是股市从目前水平上涨的关键。纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门预计2024年美股盈利将增长11%。Colton Grant认为，美联储是否降息并不重要。她说，由于自2008年金融危机以来的大部分时间里，利率一直处于接近于零的水平，一种观点认为，股市需要接近于零的利率和接近2%的通胀率才能表现良好。但对她来说，这是有缺陷的逻辑。Colton 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