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盲人摸大象

盲人摸大象

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盲人摸大象

2024-01-24

当然是抄特斯拉！追高就不要了吧！

盲人摸大象

2024-04-04

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 大家都在等待的反弹一直没有开启，在盘整，个人认为盘整到位后应会有一波上涨，科技创造未来！

盲人摸大象

2025-11-19

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$真是一个大坑啊[捂脸][捂脸][捂脸]

盲人摸大象

2023-12-09

$TSLA 20231208 260.0 CALL$ 跟大神们学习末日期权，到期自动止盈了[开心] [开心] [开心]

盲人摸大象

2025-12-10

英伟达在目前人工智能应用大爆发的现阶段，对中国市场的解禁是极大的利好！后续应有一段不错的行情[强]

盲人摸大象

2024-09-24

$NVDA 20241004 106.0 PUT$

盲人摸大象

2025-10-10

特斯拉回调后应该会继续上涨，英伟达目前已经上了新台阶后续看涨！跟踪这两应在年底有收获！

盲人摸大象

2025-12-19

ai的建设一直推进中，ai的应用还没踪影，因此上涨有大幅空间

盲人摸大象

2024-02-14

$超微电脑(SMCI)$

盲人摸大象

2023-12-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 20年开户，可惜今年下半年才开始学习，晚了3年，原因就是被A股坑惨才不得已转战到美股，深深体会到不健全的市场真的不能参与！感谢老虎给我们这样的渠道，可以参与国际金融市场，愿老虎越办越好，客如云集，大家在这个公平的市场都翻倍赚钱！

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left;\">马克思预测了人工智能吗？大约200年前，他写了一部关于“机器”的著作，构想了全面自动化的场景。在这个世界里，稀缺性问题得到了解决。但是，随着劳动力价值降至零，<strong>资本主义将变得过时</strong>，我们将过渡到一个物质极大丰富的全新世界。马克思构想的终点，与如今埃隆·马斯克的愿景出奇地相似。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二种结局则是“历史重演”</strong>。AI像以往技术革命一样提高效率，却没有彻底取代人类劳动，仅仅是“赋能”人类，新的工作不断出现，政策体系仍能修补冲击。在这种情况下，经济运行逻辑与过去几十年相似，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">我们究竟会走向深渊、极乐世界，还是仅仅迎来一次普通的产业升级？德银这篇报告为我们提供了一个全新的视角。</p><h2 id=\"id_3433403342\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当“资本变成劳动”，为什么说传统经济学可能失效</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">要理解AI对经济的终极破坏力，必须回到现代经济学的起点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从亚当·斯密（Adam Smith）开始，所有古典经济学家都基于一个最基本的假设：资本和劳动是两个完全独立的生产要素。无论是资本还是劳动，其价格（利率和工资）都是由它们在市场上的“相对稀缺性”决定的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回顾过去两百年的历史，以前所有的技术创新浪潮，都基本符合这个模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">类比来看，蒸汽机的发明淘汰了马车夫，但创造了火车司机；互联网摧毁了传统纸媒，但创造了无数程序员和外卖员。<strong>在这些历史周期中，劳动力永远有事情可做。机器是资本，而操作机器、维护机器、设计机器的依然是劳动。资本只是劳动的“补充”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但拥有通用人工智能（AGI）的全自动机器人完全打破了这一分类。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>“在这种情况下，资本变成了劳动。它不再是劳动的补充，而是替代品。”</strong>George Saravelos在报告中一针见血地指出。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>当一台AI机器可以完全自主思考、自主生产、自主迭代时，这台机器既是资本，也是劳动力。</strong>现代经济学的基础结构在此刻断裂。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告直言：<strong>“当资本等于劳动时，工作的价值就会降至零，工资也会降至零。经济学家称之为不可接受的均衡。科学家称之为奇点。古典经济学理论崩溃了。随之而来的，是资本主义作为一种制度也将变得过时。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1937589126\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当“供给创造需求”定律失效，增长或面临“长期停滞”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一旦劳动力被大规模替代，宏观经济的运转齿轮将发生怎样的异变？德银引入了更深层次的理论推演。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在一个纯粹的“AI替代工人”的世界里，工资下降，但物质的丰富度空前增加。机器不知疲倦地为市场生产海量的商品和服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按照萨伊（Say）、瓦尔拉斯（Walras）和维克塞尔（Wicksell）等古典经济学派的观点，<strong>“供给会自动创造其自身的需求”。</strong>在他们的理论模型中，市场具备自我修复能力。商品价格会随着生产成本的降低而下降，工人最终可以用更少的钱买到更多东西，或者在新的领域找到工作。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，<strong>德银警告，在AI全自动化的世界里，这种自我修正机制将彻底失效。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">逻辑非常直白：自动化会将财富和收入极度集中在一个狭小的“资本所有者”阶层手中。而在经济学规律中，富人（资本所有者）的“边际消费倾向”远低于普通劳动者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">打个比方：AI工厂一天能生产一万辆汽车，成本极低。但这部分利润全归AI所有者。这位所有者不可能一个人买下一万辆汽车；而大量失去工作、收入归零的普通人，即使汽车再便宜也无力购买。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>“从供给到需求的传导链条断裂了。”</strong>Saravelos写道。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这种市场完全出清的均衡状态，将表现为：结构性极低的劳动收入、通货紧缩的价格水平，以及海量的“超额储蓄”取代了强劲的商品需求。德银指出，这正是经济学家埃格特森（Eggertsson）和梅赫罗特拉（Mehrotra）提出的“长期停滞（secular stagnation）”景象，并在极端情况下，可能引发马克思主义式的革命。</p><h2 id=\"28bc7b67\">“凯恩斯能救场，但未必够”，关键看政府与制度反应速度</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对市场的失灵，现代经济学的另一大支柱——凯恩斯主义（Keynesianism）能否力挽狂澜？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">凯恩斯的革命性在于承认了古典理论的失败。在凯恩斯主义的框架下，经济失调不是永久的，而是周期性的。当价格调整缓慢、劳动力重新培训跟不上时，政府必须强力介入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI时代，这种干预可能表现为：对AI企业征收高额“AI税”，以此为资金池，向全民发放“刺激支票”或全民基本收入（UBI）。通过这种强力的财政转移支付，经济最终达成新的平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但这套逻辑面临巨大的现实约束。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告引用了知名经济学家阿西莫格鲁（Acemoglu）和约翰逊（Johnson）对技术部署历史的广泛研究。历史证明，政策和制度的调整往往极其缓慢。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">例如，在英国工业革命早期，由于缺乏相应的制度保护，工人的实际工资被压制了长达数十年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为了防止生活水平的倒退，德银列出了必须进行的体制改革清单：“更强大的劳动力谈判机构、限制主导企业垄断的竞争政策、不人为偏袒资本而轻视劳动力的税收和补贴结构、对技能和创造任务的技术进行公共投资，以及扩大乃至改革公司治理。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果技术变革的速度快于政府和机构的适应速度，凯恩斯主义的药方将无法及时生效。</p><h2 id=\"id_2061384871\" style=\"text-align: left;\">从马克思到马斯克：产权与稀缺性的终结</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便存在一个高度积极、反应迅速的政府，更深层次的政治经济学挑战依然存在。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告提出了一个极具哲学意味的现象：近200年前卡尔·马克思在书中关于“机器”和全自动化的构想，与今天科技巨头埃隆·马斯克对AI的终极愿景，惊人地相似。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这个全自动化的终局里，人类解决了自古以来的终极难题——“稀缺性（Scarcity）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但随之而来的是社会基础共识的解体。“在这个全面自动化的场景下，资本主义的本质崩溃了。政治问题不再围绕如何补贴工资展开。它们变得对社会结构更具基础性：如果稀缺性被解决，产权的意义是什么？”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正如凯恩斯在1930年那篇著名的文章《我们后代在经济上的可能前景》中所追问的那样：当人类不再需要为了生存而劳动，人类存在的意义究竟是什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">虽然这些话题看似宏大，但德银强调，鉴于这些问题的生存性质，它们绝对与当前的金融市场定价息息相关。</p><h2 id=\"id_1184552321\" style=\"text-align: left;\">德银两大终局推演与定价逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于市场而言，必须同时思考“通往终局的过渡期”和“终局本身”。德银将未来的世界划分为两个极端的平行宇宙，并给出了清晰的资产定价逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>终局一：AI彻底替代劳动（走向极端的颠覆）</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是AI能够快速且（几乎）完全取代人类劳动力的世界。从生活水平来看，这是经济稀缺性问题被永久解决的极乐世界。但德银警告，到达那里的道路将“最具破坏性且充满不确定性”。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>宏观经济特征</strong>：失业率不断上升，政府面临持续的干预压力，社会冲突加剧。资本所有者与劳动力之间将围绕资源分配展开无休止的博弈。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场定价逻辑</strong>：宏观经济将面临极强的通货紧缩（Disinflationary）压力，实际利率将出现结构性的持续走低。由于AI的极高效率，企业盈利能力将飙升。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市与汇市表现</strong>：尽管利润飙升，但<strong>股票市场将陷入长期的迷茫与波动</strong>。逻辑在于：企业面临的“被没收风险（如极端高额税收或国有化）”将大幅上升，不同利益相关者之间如何分配利润将始终悬而未决。而在外汇市场，德银明确指出：“那些能够最成功管理这种平稳过渡的国家，其货币最有可能获得最大收益。”</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>终局二：AI仅仅是赋能技术（历史的重演）</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这个世界里，AI并未引发奇点，而是像20世纪的历次创新一样，仅仅作为一种增强人类能力的技术（Augmentation technology）。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>宏观经济特征</strong>：这是一个具有连贯性的世界。技术采用的局限性、渐进的制度演变，以及凯恩斯主义的逆周期财政政策，将有效发挥作用。尽管分配冲突和劳动力市场的阵痛依然存在，但人类总能找到新的工作。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场定价逻辑</strong>：与第一种终局完全相反，这里的宏观指标将指向上行。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市与汇市表现</strong>：通胀水平、实际利率以及<strong>股票市场，都更有可能朝着更高的方向发展</strong>。德银总结道：“历史将押上韵脚，而不是断裂，就像过去几十年一样。”</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3551525903\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当前应该看什么？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银指出，这份报告的目的不是给出一个绝对的预测，而是建立一个分析框架。在这个分布极其宽泛的结果中，市场关于AI宏观影响的辩论短期内绝对不会停止。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">站在投资者的角度，现在该如何观测AI经济体演变的进度条？德银提炼出了明确的“观测路标”：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>劳动力数据的质变</strong>：我们是否开始观察到结构性失业率的上升？本就不断下降的劳动报酬份额，是否进入了加速向下俯冲的轨道？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>财政与反垄断政策的转向</strong>：政府有多大意愿采取主动的财政和制度政策？是否开始强力实施收入再分配？是否对垄断集中的资本财团（科技巨头）采取了实质性的反垄断预防措施？</p></li></ol></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>不仅全员失业，资本主义也将终结？德银重磅推演AI发展两种终局</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不仅全员失业，资本主义也将终结？德银重磅推演AI发展两种终局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-27 11:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766318><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当AI实现完全自动化，“资本”将等同于“劳动力”，劳动价值趋零，传统经济学基础面临崩塌。德银推演两大终局：若AI彻底替代人类，财富将高度集中，东西很多却没人买得起，经济走向通缩、低利率、高利润但股市动荡；若AI只是赋能工具，就业与需求仍能修复，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。当讨论AI时，绝大多数人还在纠结“工作会不会被抢走”。但德银认为，这个视角或许有点狭窄了。据追风交易台，德银外汇研究全球主管...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766318\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0498741114.HKD":"FRANKLIN GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0055631609.USD":"贝莱德世界黄金基金A2","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4588":"碎股","LU0368265764.SGD":"Blackrock World Gold Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4528":"SaaS概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","BK4023":"应用软件",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0498741890.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Gold and Precious Metals A (acc) SGD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4017":"黄金","LU0496367417.USD":"富兰克林黄金和贵金属A（acc）","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766318","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2614351001","content_text":"当AI实现完全自动化，“资本”将等同于“劳动力”，劳动价值趋零，传统经济学基础面临崩塌。德银推演两大终局：若AI彻底替代人类，财富将高度集中，东西很多却没人买得起，经济走向通缩、低利率、高利润但股市动荡；若AI只是赋能工具，就业与需求仍能修复，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。当讨论AI时，绝大多数人还在纠结“工作会不会被抢走”。但德银认为，这个视角或许有点狭窄了。据追风交易台，德银外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos撰写的最新报告，推演了AI发展的两个极端终局：第一种结局是“彻底替代”。如同180多年前马克思的预言与如今马斯克的愿景：在经济学的生产要素中，“资本”本身变成了“劳动力”本身，劳动价值归零，资本主义将变得过时。AI大规模取代人类工作，财富和收入高度集中在少数资本所有者手中，普通人的收入和需求被削弱，经济陷入“东西很多、但没人买得起”的困境。马克思预测了人工智能吗？大约200年前，他写了一部关于“机器”的著作，构想了全面自动化的场景。在这个世界里，稀缺性问题得到了解决。但是，随着劳动力价值降至零，资本主义将变得过时，我们将过渡到一个物质极大丰富的全新世界。马克思构想的终点，与如今埃隆·马斯克的愿景出奇地相似。第二种结局则是“历史重演”。AI像以往技术革命一样提高效率，却没有彻底取代人类劳动，仅仅是“赋能”人类，新的工作不断出现，政策体系仍能修补冲击。在这种情况下，经济运行逻辑与过去几十年相似，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。我们究竟会走向深渊、极乐世界，还是仅仅迎来一次普通的产业升级？德银这篇报告为我们提供了一个全新的视角。当“资本变成劳动”，为什么说传统经济学可能失效要理解AI对经济的终极破坏力，必须回到现代经济学的起点。从亚当·斯密（Adam Smith）开始，所有古典经济学家都基于一个最基本的假设：资本和劳动是两个完全独立的生产要素。无论是资本还是劳动，其价格（利率和工资）都是由它们在市场上的“相对稀缺性”决定的。回顾过去两百年的历史，以前所有的技术创新浪潮，都基本符合这个模型。类比来看，蒸汽机的发明淘汰了马车夫，但创造了火车司机；互联网摧毁了传统纸媒，但创造了无数程序员和外卖员。在这些历史周期中，劳动力永远有事情可做。机器是资本，而操作机器、维护机器、设计机器的依然是劳动。资本只是劳动的“补充”。但拥有通用人工智能（AGI）的全自动机器人完全打破了这一分类。“在这种情况下，资本变成了劳动。它不再是劳动的补充，而是替代品。”George Saravelos在报告中一针见血地指出。当一台AI机器可以完全自主思考、自主生产、自主迭代时，这台机器既是资本，也是劳动力。现代经济学的基础结构在此刻断裂。报告直言：“当资本等于劳动时，工作的价值就会降至零，工资也会降至零。经济学家称之为不可接受的均衡。科学家称之为奇点。古典经济学理论崩溃了。随之而来的，是资本主义作为一种制度也将变得过时。”当“供给创造需求”定律失效，增长或面临“长期停滞”一旦劳动力被大规模替代，宏观经济的运转齿轮将发生怎样的异变？德银引入了更深层次的理论推演。在一个纯粹的“AI替代工人”的世界里，工资下降，但物质的丰富度空前增加。机器不知疲倦地为市场生产海量的商品和服务。按照萨伊（Say）、瓦尔拉斯（Walras）和维克塞尔（Wicksell）等古典经济学派的观点，“供给会自动创造其自身的需求”。在他们的理论模型中，市场具备自我修复能力。商品价格会随着生产成本的降低而下降，工人最终可以用更少的钱买到更多东西，或者在新的领域找到工作。然而，德银警告，在AI全自动化的世界里，这种自我修正机制将彻底失效。逻辑非常直白：自动化会将财富和收入极度集中在一个狭小的“资本所有者”阶层手中。而在经济学规律中，富人（资本所有者）的“边际消费倾向”远低于普通劳动者。打个比方：AI工厂一天能生产一万辆汽车，成本极低。但这部分利润全归AI所有者。这位所有者不可能一个人买下一万辆汽车；而大量失去工作、收入归零的普通人，即使汽车再便宜也无力购买。“从供给到需求的传导链条断裂了。”Saravelos写道。这种市场完全出清的均衡状态，将表现为：结构性极低的劳动收入、通货紧缩的价格水平，以及海量的“超额储蓄”取代了强劲的商品需求。德银指出，这正是经济学家埃格特森（Eggertsson）和梅赫罗特拉（Mehrotra）提出的“长期停滞（secular stagnation）”景象，并在极端情况下，可能引发马克思主义式的革命。“凯恩斯能救场，但未必够”，关键看政府与制度反应速度面对市场的失灵，现代经济学的另一大支柱——凯恩斯主义（Keynesianism）能否力挽狂澜？凯恩斯的革命性在于承认了古典理论的失败。在凯恩斯主义的框架下，经济失调不是永久的，而是周期性的。当价格调整缓慢、劳动力重新培训跟不上时，政府必须强力介入。在AI时代，这种干预可能表现为：对AI企业征收高额“AI税”，以此为资金池，向全民发放“刺激支票”或全民基本收入（UBI）。通过这种强力的财政转移支付，经济最终达成新的平衡。但这套逻辑面临巨大的现实约束。报告引用了知名经济学家阿西莫格鲁（Acemoglu）和约翰逊（Johnson）对技术部署历史的广泛研究。历史证明，政策和制度的调整往往极其缓慢。例如，在英国工业革命早期，由于缺乏相应的制度保护，工人的实际工资被压制了长达数十年。为了防止生活水平的倒退，德银列出了必须进行的体制改革清单：“更强大的劳动力谈判机构、限制主导企业垄断的竞争政策、不人为偏袒资本而轻视劳动力的税收和补贴结构、对技能和创造任务的技术进行公共投资，以及扩大乃至改革公司治理。”如果技术变革的速度快于政府和机构的适应速度，凯恩斯主义的药方将无法及时生效。从马克思到马斯克：产权与稀缺性的终结即便存在一个高度积极、反应迅速的政府，更深层次的政治经济学挑战依然存在。报告提出了一个极具哲学意味的现象：近200年前卡尔·马克思在书中关于“机器”和全自动化的构想，与今天科技巨头埃隆·马斯克对AI的终极愿景，惊人地相似。在这个全自动化的终局里，人类解决了自古以来的终极难题——“稀缺性（Scarcity）”。但随之而来的是社会基础共识的解体。“在这个全面自动化的场景下，资本主义的本质崩溃了。政治问题不再围绕如何补贴工资展开。它们变得对社会结构更具基础性：如果稀缺性被解决，产权的意义是什么？”正如凯恩斯在1930年那篇著名的文章《我们后代在经济上的可能前景》中所追问的那样：当人类不再需要为了生存而劳动，人类存在的意义究竟是什么？虽然这些话题看似宏大，但德银强调，鉴于这些问题的生存性质，它们绝对与当前的金融市场定价息息相关。德银两大终局推演与定价逻辑对于市场而言，必须同时思考“通往终局的过渡期”和“终局本身”。德银将未来的世界划分为两个极端的平行宇宙，并给出了清晰的资产定价逻辑。终局一：AI彻底替代劳动（走向极端的颠覆）这是AI能够快速且（几乎）完全取代人类劳动力的世界。从生活水平来看，这是经济稀缺性问题被永久解决的极乐世界。但德银警告，到达那里的道路将“最具破坏性且充满不确定性”。宏观经济特征：失业率不断上升，政府面临持续的干预压力，社会冲突加剧。资本所有者与劳动力之间将围绕资源分配展开无休止的博弈。市场定价逻辑：宏观经济将面临极强的通货紧缩（Disinflationary）压力，实际利率将出现结构性的持续走低。由于AI的极高效率，企业盈利能力将飙升。股市与汇市表现：尽管利润飙升，但股票市场将陷入长期的迷茫与波动。逻辑在于：企业面临的“被没收风险（如极端高额税收或国有化）”将大幅上升，不同利益相关者之间如何分配利润将始终悬而未决。而在外汇市场，德银明确指出：“那些能够最成功管理这种平稳过渡的国家，其货币最有可能获得最大收益。”终局二：AI仅仅是赋能技术（历史的重演）在这个世界里，AI并未引发奇点，而是像20世纪的历次创新一样，仅仅作为一种增强人类能力的技术（Augmentation technology）。宏观经济特征：这是一个具有连贯性的世界。技术采用的局限性、渐进的制度演变，以及凯恩斯主义的逆周期财政政策，将有效发挥作用。尽管分配冲突和劳动力市场的阵痛依然存在，但人类总能找到新的工作。市场定价逻辑：与第一种终局完全相反，这里的宏观指标将指向上行。股市与汇市表现：通胀水平、实际利率以及股票市场，都更有可能朝着更高的方向发展。德银总结道：“历史将押上韵脚，而不是断裂，就像过去几十年一样。”当前应该看什么？德银指出，这份报告的目的不是给出一个绝对的预测，而是建立一个分析框架。在这个分布极其宽泛的结果中，市场关于AI宏观影响的辩论短期内绝对不会停止。站在投资者的角度，现在该如何观测AI经济体演变的进度条？德银提炼出了明确的“观测路标”：劳动力数据的质变：我们是否开始观察到结构性失业率的上升？本就不断下降的劳动报酬份额，是否进入了加速向下俯冲的轨道？财政与反垄断政策的转向：政府有多大意愿采取主动的财政和制度政策？是否开始强力实施收入再分配？是否对垄断集中的资本财团（科技巨头）采取了实质性的反垄断预防措施？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NDX":2,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,".DJI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":537311239308632,"gmtCreate":1772200499596,"gmtModify":1772200502367,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"总结太到位了👍","listText":"总结太到位了👍","text":"总结太到位了👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537311239308632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":525960115691856,"gmtCreate":1769433196677,"gmtModify":1769433198800,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强][强][强]","listText":"[强][强][强]","text":"[强][强][强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525960115691856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":519920198349512,"gmtCreate":1767917601939,"gmtModify":1767917604688,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519920198349512","repostId":"2602316388","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2602316388","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767911450,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2602316388?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-09 06:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成：七家中国企业成核心供应商？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602316388","media":"具身智机产业链","summary":"近期，关于Optimus V3量产审核完成、七家中国企业确定为核心一级供应商的消息引发行业震动。蓝思科技凭借在精密制造与整机组装领域的积累，将承担Optimus V3的整机组装任务，并供应3D玻璃面罩、灵巧手夹爪模组等核心部件，其灵巧手相关产品市占率已超70%，成为该环节的核心保障。特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成与中国核心供应链的确定，标志着全球人形机器人产业从技术研发阶段正式迈向量产落地阶段。","content":"<html><body><article><p>近期，关于Optimus V3量产审核完成、七家中国企业确定为核心一级供应商的消息引发行业震动。这7家公司分别为：<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300433\">蓝思科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002050\">三花智控</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601689\">拓普集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300115\">长盈精密</a>、卧龙电驱、五洲新春、</strong>恒立液压。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063728231v152jszlq8aabdi\"/><p><strong>尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>官方尚未对这一具体供应链名单进行最终确认，但中国供应链深度参与已是公开的秘密。</strong>以下提到的这几家公司，各自凭借其核心技术，在机器人产业链中占据了各自的关键环节：</p><p><strong>蓝思科技</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063729044v1522gz3acxov68\"/><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06613\">蓝思科技</a>是以科技创新为核心、智能智造为驱动，业内领先的智能终端全产业链一站式精密制造解决方案提供商。1993年成立于深圳（公司前身），2006年总部落户湖南长沙。</p><p>蓝思科技通过“新材料、新技术、新装备、新领域”战略，持续不断拓展新领域，业务覆盖消费电子、智能汽车领域及人形机器人、AI眼镜/XR头显、智慧零售设备等新兴领域，形成多场景协同发展的业务布局。</p><p>蓝思科技凭借在精密制造与整机组装领域的积累，将承担Optimus V3的整机组装任务，并供应3D玻璃面罩、灵巧手夹爪模组等核心部件，其灵巧手相关产品市占率已超70%，成为该环节的核心保障。</p><p><strong>三花智控</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063729505v1522xgkk15qvp2\"/><p>主要研发和生产制冷空调零部件、汽车零部件，在相关领域拥有全球领先的技术和市场地位，是全球最大的制冷控制元器件制造商。</p><p>随着人形机器人行业的兴起，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02050\">三花智控</a>敏锐地捕捉到市场机遇，专门成立了机器人事业部，将目光聚焦于人形机器人机电执行器的研发与生产。机电执行器作为人形机器人实现动作执行的重要部件，对机器人的整体性能至关重要。</p><p>三花智控聚焦机器人的关节与热管理系统，提供肩、肘、腕等14个旋转关节总成及液冷散热模组，其精密机电执行器技术为机器人的动作精度与稳定性奠定基础。</p><p><strong>拓普集团</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063743720v152ksvqqrulsbx\"/><p>宁波拓普集团股份有限公司是在上海证券交易所上市的一家科技、平台型汽车零部件企业，主要致力于汽车动力底盘系统、饰件系统、智能驾驶系统等领域的研发与制造。</p><p>作为汽车零部件巨头，利用其在底盘与结构件上的大规模生产、质量控制及成本管理经验，强势切入机器人关节赛道，具备强大的系统集成与供应链整合潜力。</p><p>拓普集团凭借在汽车底盘部件领域的优势，拿下腿部/腰部关节模组的全球独家供应权，同时提供直线/旋转执行器总成，直接影响机器人的行走与承重能力。</p><p><strong>长盈精密</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063744296v15272tbgtwezez\"/><p>深圳市长盈精密技术股份有限公司（简称“长盈精密”）成立于2001年7月，是一家研发、生产、销售智能终端手机零组件，新能源汽车零组件，工业机器人及自动化系统集成的规模化制造企业。</p><p>长盈精密开始为海内外人形机器人客户开发如铝合金、镁合金、钛合金等金属材料，PEEK、IGUS等工程塑料，橡胶、硅胶、尼龙、纤维织布等多种材料的零件。</p><p>此外，公司还使用包括CNC、3D打印、压铸、注塑、滚齿、热压等多种成型工艺，为人形机器人的结构件、执行器、传感器、变速齿轮、线束、电机等提供核心零部件，形成了全链条配套能力。</p><p><strong>卧龙电驱</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063747596v1521rzzd2g5czf\"/><p>主要从事电机及控制系统的研发和生产，电机作为人形机器人的动力来源，其性能好坏对机器人的运动能力起着决定性作用。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600580\">卧龙电驱</a>凭借强大的技术研发能力和先进的制造水平，成为全球领先的电机及驱动制造商。</p><p>在人形机器人领域，该公司积极布局，已成功开发出人形机器人的核心零部件，如高爆发关节、无框力矩电机等，并且与智元机器人展开深度合作。这种合作模式不仅有助于卧龙电驱的产品更好地适配人形机器人的需求，还能通过与机器人整机企业的协同创新，不断优化产品性能，推动人形机器人动力系统的升级与发展。</p><p>卧龙电驱则负责轴向磁通电机、无框力矩电机等驱动系统，是机器人动力输出的核心来源。</p><p><strong>五洲新春</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063749101v152v75ih3y0da7\"/><p>浙江<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603667\">五洲新春</a>集团股份有限公司是一家集研发、制造和服务为一体的综合型企业集团，主要生产轴承及汽车配件等高端精密零部件。2016年，五洲新春在上交所挂牌上市，证券代码603667。目前五洲新春在浙江、安徽、四川、大连和墨西哥等地建有多个生产基地，在美国、波兰、德国、法国、英国、意大利等地拥有销售公司。</p><p><strong>恒立液压</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063758820v152lj5zhu3xi5k\"/><p>公司总部位于中国常州，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601100\">恒立液压</a>经过30多年的专注与创新，从液压油缸制造发展成为集液压元件、精密铸件、液压系统等产业于一体的大型综合性企业。在中国、德国、美国、日本、墨西哥分别建有7个液压研发中心与11个生产制造基地。</p><p>五洲新春与恒立液压则聚焦传动与执行部件，分别供应轴承、丝杆及行星滚柱丝杠、线性关节总成，保障机器人动作的流畅性与精准度。</p><p>特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成与中国核心供应链的确定，标志着全球人形机器人产业从技术研发阶段正式迈向量产落地阶段。未来，随着2026年第一季度量产的启动，人形机器人有望逐步从概念走向现实，广泛应用于工业、医疗、家庭服务等多个领域，开启全新的产业革命。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成：七家中国企业成核心供应商？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成：七家中国企业成核心供应商？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-09 06:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260109063824a70472c5&s=b><strong>具身智机产业链</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期，关于Optimus V3量产审核完成、七家中国企业确定为核心一级供应商的消息引发行业震动。这7家公司分别为：蓝思科技、三花智控、拓普集团、长盈精密、卧龙电驱、五洲新春、恒立液压。尽管特斯拉官方尚未对这一具体供应链名单进行最终确认，但中国供应链深度参与已是公开的秘密。以下提到的这几家公司，各自凭借其核心技术，在机器人产业链中占据了各自的关键环节：蓝思科技蓝思科技是以科技创新为核心、智能智造为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260109063824a70472c5&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","02050":"三花智控","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A 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id=\"id_2215542761\">供需基本面：结构性赤字支撑长期牛市</h2><p>Krauth认为，白银价格今年爆发的核心逻辑在于市场对长期结构性赤字的重新定价。他指出，过去五年（包括今年在内）的累计赤字约为8亿盎司，这几乎相当于一整年的矿山供应量。国际工业协会The Silver Institute预测，<strong>这种赤字状况在未来五年内将持续存在。</strong></p><p>Krauth近日在接受Living Your Greatness Podcast创始人Ben Mumme采访时表示，早在2024年，由于伦敦、纽约和上海等主要交易所的库存大幅下降，市场基本面已发生质变。当时，消费者可以通过提取期货合约交割的方式获得实物白银，而无需倒逼矿商增加供应。如今，随着交易所库存被耗尽，市场被迫正视这一严峻的供应缺口。</p><p>在需求端，太阳能面板制造商对白银的巨大消耗构成了工业需求的主力，且更新、更高效的技术意味着白银用量将进一步增加。此外，投资需求亦大幅超出预期。根据The Silver Institute的数据，今年以白银为主题的交易所交易基金（ETF）的投资需求预计接近2亿盎司，远高于此前预测的7000万盎司。</p><h2 id=\"id_64788282\">“狂热阶段”与300美元目标价的逻辑</h2><p>Krauth对300美元目标价的测算基于“金银比率”的大幅修正。该比率即黄金价格除以白银价格，代表购买一盎司黄金所需的白银盎司数。这一比率曾在今年4月达到104的峰值，目前回落至68左右。Krauth预测，在未来的“狂热阶段”，该比率将暴跌至15。</p><p>根据他的模型，<strong>若以当前黄金价格约4500美元为基准，除以15的金银比率，得出的白银目标价即为300美元。</strong>尽管市场上不乏更为激进的预测（如800至1000美元），但Krauth认为这些数字显得“相当疯狂”，相比之下，他的预测路径更为稳健。他补充称，可能需要“再过几年”才能触及300美元大关。</p><p>除了供需失衡，美元走弱、政府高额赤字、通胀担忧以及地缘政治风险也是点燃贵金属热潮的重要因素。然而，Krauth警告称，投资者可能尚未完全理解这种供需失衡的深度。</p><p>对于短期走势，Krauth保持了谨慎的客观态度。他指出，虽然白银处于极佳的市场位置，且已在10月突破并确认了50美元的底部支撑，但这并不意味着市场不会出现修正。<strong>“近期出现小幅调整并不会令我感到意外，”</strong>Krauth表示，但他坚信支撑行情的关键要素将在未来相当长的一段时间内持续发挥作用。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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暴涨超11%，在结构性供应短缺与强劲工业需求的双重推动下，白银正成为2025年最受瞩目的交易标的之一。作为2025年表现最抢眼的资产类别之一，白银期货价格年内已飙升154%，仅本月在连续期货合约基础上便上涨约40%。这一势不可挡的涨势不仅超越了同期股市的表现，也引发了市场的广泛关注。瑞银...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762152\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59b88731b8c06f5f2f331abdc0376b0","relate_stocks":{"SLV":"白银ETF-iShares","AGQ":"2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762152","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2594229920","content_text":"周五，现货白银盘中涨超5%， 白银ETF-iShares 涨超5%， 2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares 暴涨超11%，在结构性供应短缺与强劲工业需求的双重推动下，白银正成为2025年最受瞩目的交易标的之一。作为2025年表现最抢眼的资产类别之一，白银期货价格年内已飙升154%，仅本月在连续期货合约基础上便上涨约40%。这一势不可挡的涨势不仅超越了同期股市的表现，也引发了市场的广泛关注。瑞银策略师本周已向客户发出警告，指出贵金属及工业金属近期的涨幅显得“失控”。知名白银分析师、《The Great Silver Bull》一书作者Peter Krauth认为，尽管短期回调风险犹存，但在即将到来的“狂热阶段”中，银价有望冲击每盎司300美元的历史高位。他认为，当前的上涨主要受到供需基本面失衡的驱动，且所有支撑涨势持续“相当长一段时间”的要素均已具备。尽管每盎司50美元已被视为新的价格底部，但Krauth强调，随着市场进入“狂热阶段”，金银比率的剧烈调整将成为推升银价的核心动力。供需基本面：结构性赤字支撑长期牛市Krauth认为，白银价格今年爆发的核心逻辑在于市场对长期结构性赤字的重新定价。他指出，过去五年（包括今年在内）的累计赤字约为8亿盎司，这几乎相当于一整年的矿山供应量。国际工业协会The Silver Institute预测，这种赤字状况在未来五年内将持续存在。Krauth近日在接受Living Your Greatness Podcast创始人Ben Mumme采访时表示，早在2024年，由于伦敦、纽约和上海等主要交易所的库存大幅下降，市场基本面已发生质变。当时，消费者可以通过提取期货合约交割的方式获得实物白银，而无需倒逼矿商增加供应。如今，随着交易所库存被耗尽，市场被迫正视这一严峻的供应缺口。在需求端，太阳能面板制造商对白银的巨大消耗构成了工业需求的主力，且更新、更高效的技术意味着白银用量将进一步增加。此外，投资需求亦大幅超出预期。根据The Silver Institute的数据，今年以白银为主题的交易所交易基金（ETF）的投资需求预计接近2亿盎司，远高于此前预测的7000万盎司。“狂热阶段”与300美元目标价的逻辑Krauth对300美元目标价的测算基于“金银比率”的大幅修正。该比率即黄金价格除以白银价格，代表购买一盎司黄金所需的白银盎司数。这一比率曾在今年4月达到104的峰值，目前回落至68左右。Krauth预测，在未来的“狂热阶段”，该比率将暴跌至15。根据他的模型，若以当前黄金价格约4500美元为基准，除以15的金银比率，得出的白银目标价即为300美元。尽管市场上不乏更为激进的预测（如800至1000美元），但Krauth认为这些数字显得“相当疯狂”，相比之下，他的预测路径更为稳健。他补充称，可能需要“再过几年”才能触及300美元大关。除了供需失衡，美元走弱、政府高额赤字、通胀担忧以及地缘政治风险也是点燃贵金属热潮的重要因素。然而，Krauth警告称，投资者可能尚未完全理解这种供需失衡的深度。对于短期走势，Krauth保持了谨慎的客观态度。他指出，虽然白银处于极佳的市场位置，且已在10月突破并确认了50美元的底部支撑，但这并不意味着市场不会出现修正。“近期出现小幅调整并不会令我感到意外，”Krauth表示，但他坚信支撑行情的关键要素将在未来相当长的一段时间内持续发挥作用。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SImain":2,"SLV":1.5,"AGQ":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":515061008015608,"gmtCreate":1766777767641,"gmtModify":1766777769427,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/515061008015608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":515284233220384,"gmtCreate":1766777593954,"gmtModify":1766777595837,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强][强]","listText":"[强][强]","text":"[强][强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/515284233220384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":515058854646960,"gmtCreate":1766777221973,"gmtModify":1766777224521,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"白银[强]","listText":"白银[强]","text":"白银[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/515058854646960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":515298297663696,"gmtCreate":1766776406201,"gmtModify":1766776408584,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/515298297663696","repostId":"514991429402992","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":514991429402992,"gmtCreate":1766760385309,"gmtModify":1766760640574,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"迈向7000点？","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> 距离7000点似乎还差临门一脚，今晚大盘继续震荡上行，根据期权开仓情况7000点不是今晚的目标，但可以寄希望于下周。今晚大概在690～695之间震荡，下周上行至700后不排除会回调。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 机构sell call下周到期192.5call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260102%20192.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260102 192.5 CALL$</a> ，买入197.5call对冲套利 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260102%20197.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260102 197.5 CALL$</a> 。意思是下周股价预计会低于192.5。看涨开仓整体数据显示近期有可能回200，毕竟1月5号开始CES大会可能会有很多看点。但另一方面看跌开仓数据预期并不乐观，显然对于新年后的行情有一些莫名的黑天鹅预期，不过这些极端预期也不不是真正想要做空。所以排除这些数据后预计1月份股价会在180以上。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> 继续向300迈进，可以做sell put270<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020260102%20270.0%20PUT\">$MU 20260102 270.0 PUT$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 继续窄幅震荡，可以sel","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> 距离7000点似乎还差临门一脚，今晚大盘继续震荡上行，根据期权开仓情况7000点不是今晚的目标，但可以寄希望于下周。今晚大概在690～695之间震荡，下周上行至700后不排除会回调。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 机构sell call下周到期192.5call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260102%20192.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260102 192.5 CALL$</a> ，买入197.5call对冲套利 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260102%20197.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260102 197.5 CALL$</a> 。意思是下周股价预计会低于192.5。看涨开仓整体数据显示近期有可能回200，毕竟1月5号开始CES大会可能会有很多看点。但另一方面看跌开仓数据预期并不乐观，显然对于新年后的行情有一些莫名的黑天鹅预期，不过这些极端预期也不不是真正想要做空。所以排除这些数据后预计1月份股价会在180以上。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> 继续向300迈进，可以做sell put270<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020260102%20270.0%20PUT\">$MU 20260102 270.0 PUT$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 继续窄幅震荡，可以sel","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 距离7000点似乎还差临门一脚，今晚大盘继续震荡上行，根据期权开仓情况7000点不是今晚的目标，但可以寄希望于下周。今晚大概在690～695之间震荡，下周上行至700后不排除会回调。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 机构sell call下周到期192.5call $NVDA 20260102 192.5 CALL$ ，买入197.5call对冲套利 $NVDA 20260102 197.5 CALL$ 。意思是下周股价预计会低于192.5。看涨开仓整体数据显示近期有可能回200，毕竟1月5号开始CES大会可能会有很多看点。但另一方面看跌开仓数据预期并不乐观，显然对于新年后的行情有一些莫名的黑天鹅预期，不过这些极端预期也不不是真正想要做空。所以排除这些数据后预计1月份股价会在180以上。 $美光科技(MU)$ 继续向300迈进，可以做sell put270$MU 20260102 270.0 PUT$ $苹果(AAPL)$ 继续窄幅震荡，可以sel","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642297c3af5ee49516b751dfed2e3bd2","width":"1042","height":"1094"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcd7393a1eb9fee835087dedcb6053fc","width":"1040","height":"1058"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a5e3503e22468966791526b1292f13f","width":"1038","height":"996"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514991429402992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":515047513002000,"gmtCreate":1766719676938,"gmtModify":1766719679173,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"，1","listText":"，1","text":"，1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/515047513002000","repostId":"2594254274","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2594254274","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1766708158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594254274?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-26 08:15","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"贵金属延续强劲涨势！《货币战争》作者：明年金价10000美元，银价200美元见！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594254274","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"现货白银周四盘中最高触及73.4393美元，刷新历史纪录，这已是连续第五个交易日上涨。现货黄金同样表现强劲，接近周四创下的4525美元历史高点。著名经济学家兼畅销书作者Jim Rickards在最新访谈中表示，“推动整个金属市场上涨的因素将在明年持续发力，金价达到10000美元、银价升至200美元，我一点都不会感到意外。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>现货白银周四盘中最高触及73.4393美元，刷新历史纪录，这已是连续第五个交易日上涨。现货黄金同样表现强劲，接近周四创下的4525美元历史高点。著名经济学家兼畅销书作者Jim Rickards在最新访谈中表示，“推动整个金属市场上涨的因素将在明年持续发力，金价达到10000美元、银价升至200美元，我一点都不会感到意外。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">贵金属市场在圣诞节后首个交易日延续强劲涨势，白银创历史新高，黄金逼近历史峰值。知名经济学家Jim Rickards作出最新惊人预测，认为2026年金价有望升至10000美元，银价将触及200美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">现货白银周四上涨2.2%至每盎司73.44美元的历史新高，连续第五个交易日上涨。现货黄金则向4525美元历史高点靠拢。委内瑞拉地缘政治紧张局势加剧了贵金属的避险需求，美国对该国石油运输船只实施封锁。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，交易员押注美联储将在2026年进一步降息，为贵金属提供额外支撑。白银今年累计涨幅已达150%，自10月出现历史性逼空行情以来涨势加速。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>著名经济学家兼畅销书作者Jim Rickards在最新访谈中表示，“推动整个金属市场上涨的因素将在明年持续发力，金价达到10000美元、银价升至200美元，我一点都不会感到意外。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_810682950\" style=\"text-align: left;\">白银领涨创历史新高，黄金紧随其后</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">现货白银周四盘中最高触及73.4393美元，刷新历史纪录，这已是连续第五个交易日上涨。白银今年累计涨幅约150%，成为表现最亮眼的贵金属品种。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb5014abc98ccc61bc9257faede0601\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">现货黄金同样表现强劲，接近周四创下的4525美元历史高点。地缘政治风险持续发酵，委内瑞拉局势紧张，美国对该国石油运输实施封锁，进一步强化了黄金的避险属性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3732b02864ae56c99bce9d1431e3d51\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"473\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场对美联储2026年进一步降息的预期也为贵金属价格提供支撑，低利率环境通常有利于无息资产黄金和白银的表现。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2733153141\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Jim Rickards预测2026年金银价格将爆发</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">知名经济学家、金融分析师兼畅销书作者Jim Rickards在近期访谈中对2026年贵金属市场作出了极为乐观的预测。<strong>他表示，推动当前金银牛市的传统驱动因素——央行需求和相对停滞的供应——将在2026年继续发挥作用。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rickards强调，包括主权财富基金和捐赠基金在内的机构投资者需求增加，可能进一步推高价格。他指出，欧洲试图接管俄罗斯资产的最新举措也在影响黄金需求，各国开始从可被没收的资产中撤资。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rickards解释道，“如果你是沙特阿拉伯、日本、巴西，或者美国国债的任何大型持有者，你会想如果美国不喜欢我做的某件事怎么办？也许我应该多元化投资黄金。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1132234147\" style=\"text-align: left;\">白银逼空效应推动价格飙升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对白银价格的急剧上涨，Rickards分析认为这与实物交割市场的供需失衡有关。他指出，在纸银与实物银100:1比例的市场中，实物交割需求正在推动价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">白银市场自10月遭遇历史性逼空行情以来，涨势不断加速。供应紧张与投机需求激增的双重因素，使得白银价格在短时间内实现了大幅跳涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rickards总结道：“在2026年底之前看到10000美元的金价，我一点都不会感到意外，我认为我们会看到。白银会跟上这一趋势，到那时你会看到每盎司200美元的价格。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黄金最近突破了4500美元大关，白银已触及70美元以上，创下迄今为止最佳年度表现之一。铂金和铜等其他金属也经历了显著的价格上涨。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n贵金属延续强劲涨势！《货币战争》作者：明年金价10000美元，银价200美元见！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-26 08:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762105><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>现货白银周四盘中最高触及73.4393美元，刷新历史纪录，这已是连续第五个交易日上涨。现货黄金同样表现强劲，接近周四创下的4525美元历史高点。著名经济学家兼畅销书作者Jim Rickards在最新访谈中表示，“推动整个金属市场上涨的因素将在明年持续发力，金价达到10000美元、银价升至200美元，我一点都不会感到意外。”贵金属市场在圣诞节后首个交易日延续强劲涨势，白银创历史新高，黄金逼近历史峰值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762105\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762105","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2594254274","content_text":"现货白银周四盘中最高触及73.4393美元，刷新历史纪录，这已是连续第五个交易日上涨。现货黄金同样表现强劲，接近周四创下的4525美元历史高点。著名经济学家兼畅销书作者Jim Rickards在最新访谈中表示，“推动整个金属市场上涨的因素将在明年持续发力，金价达到10000美元、银价升至200美元，我一点都不会感到意外。”贵金属市场在圣诞节后首个交易日延续强劲涨势，白银创历史新高，黄金逼近历史峰值。知名经济学家Jim Rickards作出最新惊人预测，认为2026年金价有望升至10000美元，银价将触及200美元。现货白银周四上涨2.2%至每盎司73.44美元的历史新高，连续第五个交易日上涨。现货黄金则向4525美元历史高点靠拢。委内瑞拉地缘政治紧张局势加剧了贵金属的避险需求，美国对该国石油运输船只实施封锁。此外，交易员押注美联储将在2026年进一步降息，为贵金属提供额外支撑。白银今年累计涨幅已达150%，自10月出现历史性逼空行情以来涨势加速。著名经济学家兼畅销书作者Jim Rickards在最新访谈中表示，“推动整个金属市场上涨的因素将在明年持续发力，金价达到10000美元、银价升至200美元，我一点都不会感到意外。”白银领涨创历史新高，黄金紧随其后现货白银周四盘中最高触及73.4393美元，刷新历史纪录，这已是连续第五个交易日上涨。白银今年累计涨幅约150%，成为表现最亮眼的贵金属品种。现货黄金同样表现强劲，接近周四创下的4525美元历史高点。地缘政治风险持续发酵，委内瑞拉局势紧张，美国对该国石油运输实施封锁，进一步强化了黄金的避险属性。市场对美联储2026年进一步降息的预期也为贵金属价格提供支撑，低利率环境通常有利于无息资产黄金和白银的表现。Jim Rickards预测2026年金银价格将爆发知名经济学家、金融分析师兼畅销书作者Jim Rickards在近期访谈中对2026年贵金属市场作出了极为乐观的预测。他表示，推动当前金银牛市的传统驱动因素——央行需求和相对停滞的供应——将在2026年继续发挥作用。Rickards强调，包括主权财富基金和捐赠基金在内的机构投资者需求增加，可能进一步推高价格。他指出，欧洲试图接管俄罗斯资产的最新举措也在影响黄金需求，各国开始从可被没收的资产中撤资。Rickards解释道，“如果你是沙特阿拉伯、日本、巴西，或者美国国债的任何大型持有者，你会想如果美国不喜欢我做的某件事怎么办？也许我应该多元化投资黄金。”白银逼空效应推动价格飙升针对白银价格的急剧上涨，Rickards分析认为这与实物交割市场的供需失衡有关。他指出，在纸银与实物银100:1比例的市场中，实物交割需求正在推动价格上涨。白银市场自10月遭遇历史性逼空行情以来，涨势不断加速。供应紧张与投机需求激增的双重因素，使得白银价格在短时间内实现了大幅跳涨。Rickards总结道：“在2026年底之前看到10000美元的金价，我一点都不会感到意外，我认为我们会看到。白银会跟上这一趋势，到那时你会看到每盎司200美元的价格。”黄金最近突破了4500美元大关，白银已触及70美元以上，创下迄今为止最佳年度表现之一。铂金和铜等其他金属也经历了显著的价格上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XAUUSD.FOREX":1.5,"SImain":2,"XAGUSD.FOREX":2,"GCmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":513947788178232,"gmtCreate":1766501689727,"gmtModify":1766501692176,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/513947788178232","repostId":"2593450820","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2593450820","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1766458210,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2593450820?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-23 10:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Oppenheimer：美股“圣诞老人行情”已至，“一月效应”可期！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2593450820","media":"智通财经","summary":"Oppenheimer技术分析主管Ari H. Wald指出，这一表现与任何典型的七天周期形成鲜明对比，后者平均涨幅仅为0.2%，上涨概率为57%。而且，当“圣诞老人行情”未能出现时，接下来一到两个季度的表现往往低于平均水平。展望1月份，Oppenheimer分析师根据该指数相对于其200日移动平均线的位置，发现了一些令人鼓舞的信号。这种现象被称为“一月效应”，因为研究表明，一月份的涨幅是其他月份均值的几倍。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>从12月24日至1月5日的“圣诞老人行情”历来为投资者带来丰厚回报，自1928年以来，标普500指数在此期间平均上涨1.6%。在过去97年中，该指数在这七天内上涨的概率高达77%(75年)。Oppenheimer技术分析主管Ari H. Wald指出，这一表现与任何典型的七天周期形成鲜明对比，后者平均涨幅仅为0.2%，上涨概率为57%。而且，当“圣诞老人行情”未能出现时，接下来一到两个季度的表现往往低于平均水平。</p><p>Wald表示：“自1928年以来，标普500指数在经历一次下跌的圣诞行情后，接下来的三个月平均下跌1%，而经历一次上涨的圣诞行情后，接下来的三个月平均上涨2.6%。”他还引用了华尔街一句老话：“如果圣诞老人不来，熊市可能就要来了。”</p><p>展望1月份，Oppenheimer分析师根据该指数相对于其200日移动平均线的位置，发现了一些令人鼓舞的信号。自1950年以来，当标普500指数在1月份开盘价高于其平滑<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>时，平均上涨1.2%，上涨概率为64%;而当开盘价低于该趋势线时，平均上涨0.7%，上涨概率为50%。目前，该指数正处于这一关键技术水平之上。</p><p>此外，而1月份动量因子(SPMO)一直是全年表现最差的月份，该因子追踪过去12个月市场领头羊与落后者的表现。12月份的优异表现通常反映了税收抵扣策略，即投资者卖出亏损股票以抵消资本利得税，这使得1月份成为动量策略表现最差的月份，因为“前一年表现不佳的股票随后会被买回”，这就是所谓的“一月效应”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403e72c5a9c6206020319e6838b8e00b\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"331\"/></p><p>即一种流行的理论认为，美国股市在1月份的涨幅往往高于其他月份。这种现象被称为“一月效应”，因为研究表明，一月份的涨幅是其他月份均值的几倍。这种影响在1940年至1970年代中期的小型公司股票中最为明显。但在2000年前后，这一涨幅似乎有所收缩，自那以后就不那么可靠了。</p><p>“一月效应”在几十年前就已被广泛接受，以至于大多数研究都集中在试图寻找细微差别和原因上，而没有得出任何确切的结论。但也有其他理论。最主要的理论是，许多个人投资者在12月进行投资损失节税(Tax-Loss Harvesting)，即抛售亏损头寸以抵消盈利，从而减少纳税义务。该理论认为，1月1日之后，投资者会停止抛售并补充股票投资组合，从而推动股市上涨。另一种理论是行为理论：人们在新年伊始做出财务决定，并相应地调整投资，从而推高股市。许多高薪投资者严重依赖年终奖，这使他们有充裕的现金可以在新年伊始进行投资。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oppenheimer：美股“圣诞老人行情”已至，“一月效应”可期！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOppenheimer：美股“圣诞老人行情”已至，“一月效应”可期！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-23 10:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1384754.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从12月24日至1月5日的“圣诞老人行情”历来为投资者带来丰厚回报，自1928年以来，标普500指数在此期间平均上涨1.6%。在过去97年中，该指数在这七天内上涨的概率高达77%(75年)。Oppenheimer技术分析主管Ari H. Wald指出，这一表现与任何典型的七天周期形成鲜明对比，后者平均涨幅仅为0.2%，上涨概率为57%。而且，当“圣诞老人行情”未能出现时，接下来一到两个季度的表现...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1384754.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1384754.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2593450820","content_text":"从12月24日至1月5日的“圣诞老人行情”历来为投资者带来丰厚回报，自1928年以来，标普500指数在此期间平均上涨1.6%。在过去97年中，该指数在这七天内上涨的概率高达77%(75年)。Oppenheimer技术分析主管Ari H. Wald指出，这一表现与任何典型的七天周期形成鲜明对比，后者平均涨幅仅为0.2%，上涨概率为57%。而且，当“圣诞老人行情”未能出现时，接下来一到两个季度的表现往往低于平均水平。Wald表示：“自1928年以来，标普500指数在经历一次下跌的圣诞行情后，接下来的三个月平均下跌1%，而经历一次上涨的圣诞行情后，接下来的三个月平均上涨2.6%。”他还引用了华尔街一句老话：“如果圣诞老人不来，熊市可能就要来了。”展望1月份，Oppenheimer分析师根据该指数相对于其200日移动平均线的位置，发现了一些令人鼓舞的信号。自1950年以来，当标普500指数在1月份开盘价高于其平滑趋势线时，平均上涨1.2%，上涨概率为64%;而当开盘价低于该趋势线时，平均上涨0.7%，上涨概率为50%。目前，该指数正处于这一关键技术水平之上。此外，而1月份动量因子(SPMO)一直是全年表现最差的月份，该因子追踪过去12个月市场领头羊与落后者的表现。12月份的优异表现通常反映了税收抵扣策略，即投资者卖出亏损股票以抵消资本利得税，这使得1月份成为动量策略表现最差的月份，因为“前一年表现不佳的股票随后会被买回”，这就是所谓的“一月效应”。即一种流行的理论认为，美国股市在1月份的涨幅往往高于其他月份。这种现象被称为“一月效应”，因为研究表明，一月份的涨幅是其他月份均值的几倍。这种影响在1940年至1970年代中期的小型公司股票中最为明显。但在2000年前后，这一涨幅似乎有所收缩，自那以后就不那么可靠了。“一月效应”在几十年前就已被广泛接受，以至于大多数研究都集中在试图寻找细微差别和原因上，而没有得出任何确切的结论。但也有其他理论。最主要的理论是，许多个人投资者在12月进行投资损失节税(Tax-Loss 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