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08-11

骗人接盘，太坏

大摩：市场严重低估SpaceX AI业务的价值，牛市情景股价看至600美元

08-11

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 大胆做空

2025-11-25

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 太假了

2025-11-05

$南方两倍做多海力士(07709)$ 明天舒服了

2025-11-03

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 左手倒右手，迟早有崩盘的一天，你投资我，然后我再把你投资的钱买你的产品，这种玩法，迟早会崩的

2025-10-31

$NVDA 20251128 180.0 PUT$ 买点

2025-10-31

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 真的有只涨不跌的吗

2025-03-13

$越疆(02432)$ 先破百吧

2025-03-12

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 讲道理，还得跌吧，cpi是利好，但是离目标差的远呢

2025-03-07

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 别装了，肯定要熔断最后救市

2025-03-07

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 等一个熔断

2025-03-05

活该

特斯拉2月份在德国销量下降76%，马斯克涉足德国政治引发不满

2025-03-05

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 再跌一周差不多

2025-03-03

$英特尔(INTC)$ 马上要公布台积电要在美国投资1000亿美金，说不定跟英特尔有关

2025-03-03

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 崩盘不可避免

2025-03-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 只剩玩嘴了，马斯克参与政治导致这股票风险太大

2025-03-03

$Strategy(MSTR)$ 周一要起飞了

2025-02-25

喜欢掺和政治，呵呵

抱歉，原内容已删除

2025-02-07

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 明明处于高位，就是不肯回调，硬撑着有什么意义呢？

2024-07-16

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 一点也不慌

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"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.18","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"0","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":595731098062976,"gmtCreate":1786460283770,"gmtModify":1786460285674,"author":{"id":"3470037961993035","authorId":"3470037961993035","name":"我查杰","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470037961993035","authorIdStr":"3470037961993035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"骗人接盘，太坏","listText":"骗人接盘，太坏","text":"骗人接盘，太坏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/595731098062976","repostId":"2658982019","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2658982019","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786437043,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2658982019?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-11 16:30","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"大摩：市场严重低估SpaceX AI业务的价值，牛市情景股价看至600美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2658982019","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大摩认为，市场对SpaceX AI业务定价极为保守，剥离太空业务后，AI业务隐含估值仅约12美元/股。收购Cursor是构建端到端企业AI平台的关键布局，依托算力、数据与生态协同优势，Cursor ARR预计2030年达330亿美元。维持300美元基准目标价，牛市情景看至600美元，较当前股价潜在涨幅350%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>大摩认为，市场对SpaceX AI业务定价极为保守，剥离太空业务后，AI业务隐含估值仅约12美元/股。收购Cursor是构建端到端企业AI平台的关键布局，依托算力、数据与生态协同优势，Cursor ARR预计2030年达330亿美元。维持300美元基准目标价，牛市情景看至600美元，较当前股价潜在涨幅350%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利认为，SpaceX收购AI编程工具Cursor是构建端到端企业AI平台的关键一步，当前股价对其AI业务的隐含估值极度保守，上行空间显著。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩在8月10日的研报中称，SpaceX在经历近期逾25%的涨幅后，仍具备超过100%的上行空间至300美元基准目标价，<strong>牛市情景下更可看至600美元</strong>，较当前140美元股价意味着近350%的潜在涨幅。报告核心论点在于：<strong>市场目前对SpaceX AI业务的定价极为保守，将其视为一家普通的新兴云服务商，而非一个正在成形的端到端AI平台。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/171e97edee9d7acaae595ebf8e71ca98\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"545\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩分析师Adam Jonas等人指出，若将SpaceX太空与连接业务的价值（约127美元/股）从当前股价中剥离，市场对其AI业务（含消费者及企业AI）的隐含估值仅约12美元/股，对应2028年EV/Sales倍数略高于1倍，甚至低于同类新兴云服务商的估值水平。报告认为，<strong>随着Cursor/Grok相关进展持续披露，这一估值折价有望逐步收窄，形成上行偏斜的催化剂路径。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告预测，Cursor的年度经常性收入（ARR）将从2026年6月初报告的约40亿美元，增长至2026年底约80亿美元、2027年约170亿美元，并于2030年达到约330亿美元。<strong>Cursor将于2026年为SpaceX贡献约25亿美元收入，2027年贡献约130亿美元，约占SpaceX AI总收入的19%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5009321fe0175395713b5bedb40bd7f1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1827132880\" style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX为何斥资600亿美元收购Cursor</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">今年6月16日，SpaceX宣布以600亿美元全股票对价收购Anysphere，交易预计于2026年三季度完成。此前双方已于2026年4月开始合作，SpaceX和xAI向Cursor开放Colossus数据中心用于模型训练，Cursor称其发展路线图此前一直受制于算力瓶颈。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩梳理了SpaceX收购Cursor的三重战略逻辑：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其一，算力杠杆。</strong>Cursor拥有开发者工作流，但在众多代理编程任务上仍依赖第三方前沿模型。SpaceX的Colossus集群可帮助Cursor扩展自研模型能力，降低对外部AI实验室的依赖，并通过垂直整合压缩每token成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其二，专有编程数据与反馈闭环。</strong>Cursor积累了覆盖50,000家企业、64%财富500强的真实开发者使用数据，这一数据资产可为SpaceX和xAI在企业AI竞争中提供更强的模型迭代反馈。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其三，构建更广泛企业生态的基础产品。</strong>大摩认为，收购Cursor仅仅是SpaceX构建更宏大企业级AI生态的一环：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在合并后的SpaceX企业平台中，Cursor提供应用层和工作流，Grok提供核心智能层，X平台提供实时数据，SpaceXAI提供算力基础设施，Starlink提供全球连接，而Tesla则提供了通向物理AI的路径。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525fb39bb75b0fce84e5f86372b3cec7\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"641\"/></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告特别指出，<strong>其330亿美元的2030年Cursor ARR预测并未假设上述协同效应的实现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cursor是Anysphere公司的旗舰产品，该平台于2023年3月正式推出，基于微软开源的Visual Studio Code构建，提供AI原生的代码编写、编辑、调试与审查功能。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cursor并非纯粹的模型公司，其核心价值在于工作流界面层（即&#34;harness&#34;），<strong>可调用包括Grok、Gemini及自研Composer系列在内的多种大语言模型。</strong>截至目前，Cursor已服务逾50,000家企业，覆盖64%的《财富》500强，客户包括三星、Adobe、Figma、Stripe、英伟达等。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在收入增长轨迹上，<strong>Cursor的ARR爬坡速度堪称软件史上最快之一：</strong>2025年1月突破1亿美元，2025年6月达5亿美元，2025年11月达10亿美元，2026年2月达20亿美元，2026年6月达约40亿美元，一年内增长约8倍。<strong>企业B2B客户贡献约75%的ARR，是主要收入来源。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaf2bd760443af37003d73a232181eb4\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"776\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1838829909\" style=\"text-align: left;\">模型战略：押注成本效率而非纯粹性能</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩认为，<strong>Cursor与SpaceXAI的模型策略清晰指向成本与效率的帕累托前沿，而非追求原始性能排行榜的顶端。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从产品架构看，Cursor分为两层：<strong>模型无关的工作流界面层（harness），以及自研的Fusion和Composer系列模型。</strong></p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Grok 4.5是双方联合训练的首款模型，在Artificial Analysis编程代理指数中得分64分（满分约67分），每任务成本约2.59美元，而顶级前沿模型每任务成本高达7至8美元以上。Cursor自研的Composer 2和Composer 2.5每任务成本仅0.04至0.08美元，token消耗量约为最重量级前沿模型的八分之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110556c376c24417d2e694fff9f22504\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"734\"/></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_422147517\" style=\"text-align: left;\">ARR与毛利率：从深度亏损到低60%区间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩构建了Cursor的自下而上收入与毛利率模型，季度细化至2027年，年度延伸至2030年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>收入驱动因素方面</strong>，企业端贡献约四分之三至五分之四的ARR。企业客户数量预计从2026年二季度的50,000家增长至2030年的138,000家，付费席位从2026年底的330万增至2030年的700万，对应全球专业开发者渗透率约15.8%。个人付费用户预计从2026年底的约360万增至2030年的约620万。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666dd4d28f033f39be2ff606cc280e35\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"695\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>毛利率路径方面</strong>，Cursor历史上长期处于毛利率为负的状态，主要原因是订阅收入中包含的使用量须向第三方AI实验室支付token费用，利差极薄。据报道，2026年1月当季毛利率约为-23%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着Composer和Grok承接更多推理工作量（占比从2026年的约33%升至2030年的约72%），以及廉价第三方模型使用比例提升，大摩预计<strong>毛利率将于2026年三季度转正，并于2030年达到约低60%区间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>算力占用方面</strong>，Cursor预计将占用SpaceXAI总算力的7%至10%，但其每瓦收入强度约为SpaceXAI平均工作负载的两倍，反映出订阅制高毛利结构相对于租赁算力和消费者Grok推理的优势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf75f78bc96d55bd178f0183f72d84\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"709\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_912616835\" style=\"text-align: left;\">企业AI支出：渗透率仍低，增长空间巨大</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>企业端AI支出的加速为Cursor提供了广阔的市场空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩引用Ramp AI指数数据指出，企业AI支出正在加速扩张，但整体渗透率仍处于早期阶段。截至2026年6月，美国企业员工月均AI支出中位数为约11美元，同比增长167%；头部10%企业达516美元，头部1%超过4,880美元，同比均增长约240%至250%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2045487bcc7f78ba0f63db89684d080c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"685\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，目前仍有近半数美国企业未为任何AI工具付费，大型企业付费比例约65%，中型企业约61%，小型企业仅约49%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>编程AI的采用同样呈现类似特征。</strong>据Jellyfish数据，截至2026年6月，中位工程师已持有AI编程工具许可证，头部四分之一企业的许可证覆盖率接近90%；但中位企业仅有约28%的交付代码借助AI完成，一年前这一比例接近零。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩认为，工具普及与实际生产使用之间的差距正在快速收窄，编程AI支出曲线仍有较长的上行空间。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩：市场严重低估SpaceX AI业务的价值，牛市情景股价看至600美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩：市场严重低估SpaceX AI业务的价值，牛市情景股价看至600美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-11 16:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>大摩认为，市场对SpaceX AI业务定价极为保守，剥离太空业务后，AI业务隐含估值仅约12美元/股。收购Cursor是构建端到端企业AI平台的关键布局，依托算力、数据与生态协同优势，Cursor ARR预计2030年达330亿美元。维持300美元基准目标价，牛市情景看至600美元，较当前股价潜在涨幅350%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利认为，SpaceX收购AI编程工具Cursor是构建端到端企业AI平台的关键一步，当前股价对其AI业务的隐含估值极度保守，上行空间显著。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩在8月10日的研报中称，SpaceX在经历近期逾25%的涨幅后，仍具备超过100%的上行空间至300美元基准目标价，<strong>牛市情景下更可看至600美元</strong>，较当前140美元股价意味着近350%的潜在涨幅。报告核心论点在于：<strong>市场目前对SpaceX AI业务的定价极为保守，将其视为一家普通的新兴云服务商，而非一个正在成形的端到端AI平台。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/171e97edee9d7acaae595ebf8e71ca98\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"545\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩分析师Adam Jonas等人指出，若将SpaceX太空与连接业务的价值（约127美元/股）从当前股价中剥离，市场对其AI业务（含消费者及企业AI）的隐含估值仅约12美元/股，对应2028年EV/Sales倍数略高于1倍，甚至低于同类新兴云服务商的估值水平。报告认为，<strong>随着Cursor/Grok相关进展持续披露，这一估值折价有望逐步收窄，形成上行偏斜的催化剂路径。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告预测，Cursor的年度经常性收入（ARR）将从2026年6月初报告的约40亿美元，增长至2026年底约80亿美元、2027年约170亿美元，并于2030年达到约330亿美元。<strong>Cursor将于2026年为SpaceX贡献约25亿美元收入，2027年贡献约130亿美元，约占SpaceX AI总收入的19%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5009321fe0175395713b5bedb40bd7f1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1827132880\" style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX为何斥资600亿美元收购Cursor</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">今年6月16日，SpaceX宣布以600亿美元全股票对价收购Anysphere，交易预计于2026年三季度完成。此前双方已于2026年4月开始合作，SpaceX和xAI向Cursor开放Colossus数据中心用于模型训练，Cursor称其发展路线图此前一直受制于算力瓶颈。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩梳理了SpaceX收购Cursor的三重战略逻辑：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其一，算力杠杆。</strong>Cursor拥有开发者工作流，但在众多代理编程任务上仍依赖第三方前沿模型。SpaceX的Colossus集群可帮助Cursor扩展自研模型能力，降低对外部AI实验室的依赖，并通过垂直整合压缩每token成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其二，专有编程数据与反馈闭环。</strong>Cursor积累了覆盖50,000家企业、64%财富500强的真实开发者使用数据，这一数据资产可为SpaceX和xAI在企业AI竞争中提供更强的模型迭代反馈。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其三，构建更广泛企业生态的基础产品。</strong>大摩认为，收购Cursor仅仅是SpaceX构建更宏大企业级AI生态的一环：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在合并后的SpaceX企业平台中，Cursor提供应用层和工作流，Grok提供核心智能层，X平台提供实时数据，SpaceXAI提供算力基础设施，Starlink提供全球连接，而Tesla则提供了通向物理AI的路径。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525fb39bb75b0fce84e5f86372b3cec7\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"641\"/></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告特别指出，<strong>其330亿美元的2030年Cursor ARR预测并未假设上述协同效应的实现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cursor是Anysphere公司的旗舰产品，该平台于2023年3月正式推出，基于微软开源的Visual Studio Code构建，提供AI原生的代码编写、编辑、调试与审查功能。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cursor并非纯粹的模型公司，其核心价值在于工作流界面层（即&#34;harness&#34;），<strong>可调用包括Grok、Gemini及自研Composer系列在内的多种大语言模型。</strong>截至目前，Cursor已服务逾50,000家企业，覆盖64%的《财富》500强，客户包括三星、Adobe、Figma、Stripe、英伟达等。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在收入增长轨迹上，<strong>Cursor的ARR爬坡速度堪称软件史上最快之一：</strong>2025年1月突破1亿美元，2025年6月达5亿美元，2025年11月达10亿美元，2026年2月达20亿美元，2026年6月达约40亿美元，一年内增长约8倍。<strong>企业B2B客户贡献约75%的ARR，是主要收入来源。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaf2bd760443af37003d73a232181eb4\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"776\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1838829909\" style=\"text-align: left;\">模型战略：押注成本效率而非纯粹性能</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩认为，<strong>Cursor与SpaceXAI的模型策略清晰指向成本与效率的帕累托前沿，而非追求原始性能排行榜的顶端。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从产品架构看，Cursor分为两层：<strong>模型无关的工作流界面层（harness），以及自研的Fusion和Composer系列模型。</strong></p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Grok 4.5是双方联合训练的首款模型，在Artificial Analysis编程代理指数中得分64分（满分约67分），每任务成本约2.59美元，而顶级前沿模型每任务成本高达7至8美元以上。Cursor自研的Composer 2和Composer 2.5每任务成本仅0.04至0.08美元，token消耗量约为最重量级前沿模型的八分之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110556c376c24417d2e694fff9f22504\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"734\"/></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_422147517\" style=\"text-align: left;\">ARR与毛利率：从深度亏损到低60%区间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩构建了Cursor的自下而上收入与毛利率模型，季度细化至2027年，年度延伸至2030年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>收入驱动因素方面</strong>，企业端贡献约四分之三至五分之四的ARR。企业客户数量预计从2026年二季度的50,000家增长至2030年的138,000家，付费席位从2026年底的330万增至2030年的700万，对应全球专业开发者渗透率约15.8%。个人付费用户预计从2026年底的约360万增至2030年的约620万。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666dd4d28f033f39be2ff606cc280e35\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"695\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>毛利率路径方面</strong>，Cursor历史上长期处于毛利率为负的状态，主要原因是订阅收入中包含的使用量须向第三方AI实验室支付token费用，利差极薄。据报道，2026年1月当季毛利率约为-23%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着Composer和Grok承接更多推理工作量（占比从2026年的约33%升至2030年的约72%），以及廉价第三方模型使用比例提升，大摩预计<strong>毛利率将于2026年三季度转正，并于2030年达到约低60%区间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>算力占用方面</strong>，Cursor预计将占用SpaceXAI总算力的7%至10%，但其每瓦收入强度约为SpaceXAI平均工作负载的两倍，反映出订阅制高毛利结构相对于租赁算力和消费者Grok推理的优势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf75f78bc96d55bd178f0183f72d84\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"709\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_912616835\" style=\"text-align: left;\">企业AI支出：渗透率仍低，增长空间巨大</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>企业端AI支出的加速为Cursor提供了广阔的市场空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩引用Ramp AI指数数据指出，企业AI支出正在加速扩张，但整体渗透率仍处于早期阶段。截至2026年6月，美国企业员工月均AI支出中位数为约11美元，同比增长167%；头部10%企业达516美元，头部1%超过4,880美元，同比均增长约240%至250%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2045487bcc7f78ba0f63db89684d080c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"685\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，目前仍有近半数美国企业未为任何AI工具付费，大型企业付费比例约65%，中型企业约61%，小型企业仅约49%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>编程AI的采用同样呈现类似特征。</strong>据Jellyfish数据，截至2026年6月，中位工程师已持有AI编程工具许可证，头部四分之一企业的许可证覆盖率接近90%；但中位企业仅有约28%的交付代码借助AI完成，一年前这一比例接近零。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩认为，工具普及与实际生产使用之间的差距正在快速收窄，编程AI支出曲线仍有较长的上行空间。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f16a7a67d0d2e6f1e72c43b8fe10d226","relate_stocks":{"UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","SPCG":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Tradr","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","ORBX":"Global X Space Tech ETF","SPCH":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Leverage Shares","ELOL":"Leverage Shares 100% TSLA and 100% SPCX Daily ETF","SPAX":"2倍做多SPACEX ETF-T-REX","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","MARS":"Roundhill Space & Technology ETF","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","WSPC":"WisdomTree Space Economy UCITS ETF","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc","WARP":"VanEck Space ETF","SSPC":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Leverage Shares","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October","SPCM":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Tradr","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","BK4615":"SpaceX概念","SPCQ":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Defiance","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","XOVR":"ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF","BK4089":"非传统电信运营商","SNK":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-GraniteShares","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","SPCU":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Defiance","LOFF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Direxion","UFO":"Procure Space ETF","SPAL":"2倍做多Space X ETF-GraniteShares","LOFD":"Direxion Daily SpaceX Bear 2X ETF","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","SPCF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-ProShares","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779174","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2658982019","content_text":"大摩认为，市场对SpaceX AI业务定价极为保守，剥离太空业务后，AI业务隐含估值仅约12美元/股。收购Cursor是构建端到端企业AI平台的关键布局，依托算力、数据与生态协同优势，Cursor ARR预计2030年达330亿美元。维持300美元基准目标价，牛市情景看至600美元，较当前股价潜在涨幅350%。摩根士丹利认为，SpaceX收购AI编程工具Cursor是构建端到端企业AI平台的关键一步，当前股价对其AI业务的隐含估值极度保守，上行空间显著。大摩在8月10日的研报中称，SpaceX在经历近期逾25%的涨幅后，仍具备超过100%的上行空间至300美元基准目标价，牛市情景下更可看至600美元，较当前140美元股价意味着近350%的潜在涨幅。报告核心论点在于：市场目前对SpaceX AI业务的定价极为保守，将其视为一家普通的新兴云服务商，而非一个正在成形的端到端AI平台。大摩分析师Adam Jonas等人指出，若将SpaceX太空与连接业务的价值（约127美元/股）从当前股价中剥离，市场对其AI业务（含消费者及企业AI）的隐含估值仅约12美元/股，对应2028年EV/Sales倍数略高于1倍，甚至低于同类新兴云服务商的估值水平。报告认为，随着Cursor/Grok相关进展持续披露，这一估值折价有望逐步收窄，形成上行偏斜的催化剂路径。报告预测，Cursor的年度经常性收入（ARR）将从2026年6月初报告的约40亿美元，增长至2026年底约80亿美元、2027年约170亿美元，并于2030年达到约330亿美元。Cursor将于2026年为SpaceX贡献约25亿美元收入，2027年贡献约130亿美元，约占SpaceX AI总收入的19%。SpaceX为何斥资600亿美元收购Cursor今年6月16日，SpaceX宣布以600亿美元全股票对价收购Anysphere，交易预计于2026年三季度完成。此前双方已于2026年4月开始合作，SpaceX和xAI向Cursor开放Colossus数据中心用于模型训练，Cursor称其发展路线图此前一直受制于算力瓶颈。大摩梳理了SpaceX收购Cursor的三重战略逻辑：其一，算力杠杆。Cursor拥有开发者工作流，但在众多代理编程任务上仍依赖第三方前沿模型。SpaceX的Colossus集群可帮助Cursor扩展自研模型能力，降低对外部AI实验室的依赖，并通过垂直整合压缩每token成本。其二，专有编程数据与反馈闭环。Cursor积累了覆盖50,000家企业、64%财富500强的真实开发者使用数据，这一数据资产可为SpaceX和xAI在企业AI竞争中提供更强的模型迭代反馈。其三，构建更广泛企业生态的基础产品。大摩认为，收购Cursor仅仅是SpaceX构建更宏大企业级AI生态的一环：在合并后的SpaceX企业平台中，Cursor提供应用层和工作流，Grok提供核心智能层，X平台提供实时数据，SpaceXAI提供算力基础设施，Starlink提供全球连接，而Tesla则提供了通向物理AI的路径。报告特别指出，其330亿美元的2030年Cursor ARR预测并未假设上述协同效应的实现。Cursor是Anysphere公司的旗舰产品，该平台于2023年3月正式推出，基于微软开源的Visual Studio Code构建，提供AI原生的代码编写、编辑、调试与审查功能。Cursor并非纯粹的模型公司，其核心价值在于工作流界面层（即\"harness\"），可调用包括Grok、Gemini及自研Composer系列在内的多种大语言模型。截至目前，Cursor已服务逾50,000家企业，覆盖64%的《财富》500强，客户包括三星、Adobe、Figma、Stripe、英伟达等。在收入增长轨迹上，Cursor的ARR爬坡速度堪称软件史上最快之一：2025年1月突破1亿美元，2025年6月达5亿美元，2025年11月达10亿美元，2026年2月达20亿美元，2026年6月达约40亿美元，一年内增长约8倍。企业B2B客户贡献约75%的ARR，是主要收入来源。模型战略：押注成本效率而非纯粹性能大摩认为，Cursor与SpaceXAI的模型策略清晰指向成本与效率的帕累托前沿，而非追求原始性能排行榜的顶端。从产品架构看，Cursor分为两层：模型无关的工作流界面层（harness），以及自研的Fusion和Composer系列模型。Grok 4.5是双方联合训练的首款模型，在Artificial Analysis编程代理指数中得分64分（满分约67分），每任务成本约2.59美元，而顶级前沿模型每任务成本高达7至8美元以上。Cursor自研的Composer 2和Composer 2.5每任务成本仅0.04至0.08美元，token消耗量约为最重量级前沿模型的八分之一。ARR与毛利率：从深度亏损到低60%区间大摩构建了Cursor的自下而上收入与毛利率模型，季度细化至2027年，年度延伸至2030年。收入驱动因素方面，企业端贡献约四分之三至五分之四的ARR。企业客户数量预计从2026年二季度的50,000家增长至2030年的138,000家，付费席位从2026年底的330万增至2030年的700万，对应全球专业开发者渗透率约15.8%。个人付费用户预计从2026年底的约360万增至2030年的约620万。毛利率路径方面，Cursor历史上长期处于毛利率为负的状态，主要原因是订阅收入中包含的使用量须向第三方AI实验室支付token费用，利差极薄。据报道，2026年1月当季毛利率约为-23%。随着Composer和Grok承接更多推理工作量（占比从2026年的约33%升至2030年的约72%），以及廉价第三方模型使用比例提升，大摩预计毛利率将于2026年三季度转正，并于2030年达到约低60%区间。算力占用方面，Cursor预计将占用SpaceXAI总算力的7%至10%，但其每瓦收入强度约为SpaceXAI平均工作负载的两倍，反映出订阅制高毛利结构相对于租赁算力和消费者Grok推理的优势。企业AI支出：渗透率仍低，增长空间巨大企业端AI支出的加速为Cursor提供了广阔的市场空间。大摩引用Ramp 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别装了，肯定要熔断最后救市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410936268194184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":410640243212800,"gmtCreate":1741282910599,"gmtModify":1741282913206,"author":{"id":"3470037961993035","authorId":"3470037961993035","name":"我查杰","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470037961993035","authorIdStr":"3470037961993035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 等一个熔断","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 等一个熔断","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 等一个熔断","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410640243212800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":410312642441544,"gmtCreate":1741184055923,"gmtModify":1741184057907,"author":{"id":"3470037961993035","authorId":"3470037961993035","name":"我查杰","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470037961993035","authorIdStr":"3470037961993035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"活该","listText":"活该","text":"活该","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410312642441544","repostId":"1111613045","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1111613045","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1741172981,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111613045?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-03-05 19:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉2月份在德国销量下降76%，马斯克涉足德国政治引发不满","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111613045","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月份在德国的销量下降了76%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三，特斯拉盘前转跌，此前一度涨逾3%。德国联邦汽车运输管理局的数据显示，特斯拉2月在德国的销量暴跌76%至1429辆，因该公司的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克惹恼了参加该国竞争激烈的联邦选举的选民。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0b7fb5f4f387aa0a97c5a19cb55371\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"671\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/674130347f9c095af31e4356fdb3fcf9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"375\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">特斯拉的表现与整体电动汽车注册量形成鲜明对比，后者在2月份增长了31%。在2月23日大选前的几个月里，马斯克为极右翼政党德国选择党背书，为这个反移民、亲俄、抨击国家政治体制的政党提供支持。虽然德国选择党跃居第二，但可能成为下一任总理的弗里德里希·梅尔茨誓言要与该党保持距离。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">今年头两个月，特斯拉在欧盟最大电动汽车市场德国和法国的销量分别下降了71%和44%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉2月份在德国销量下降76%，马斯克涉足德国政治引发不满</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉2月份在德国销量下降76%，马斯克涉足德国政治引发不满\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-03-05 19:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三，特斯拉盘前转跌，此前一度涨逾3%。德国联邦汽车运输管理局的数据显示，特斯拉2月在德国的销量暴跌76%至1429辆，因该公司的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克惹恼了参加该国竞争激烈的联邦选举的选民。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0b7fb5f4f387aa0a97c5a19cb55371\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"671\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/674130347f9c095af31e4356fdb3fcf9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"375\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">特斯拉的表现与整体电动汽车注册量形成鲜明对比，后者在2月份增长了31%。在2月23日大选前的几个月里，马斯克为极右翼政党德国选择党背书，为这个反移民、亲俄、抨击国家政治体制的政党提供支持。虽然德国选择党跃居第二，但可能成为下一任总理的弗里德里希·梅尔茨誓言要与该党保持距离。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">今年头两个月，特斯拉在欧盟最大电动汽车市场德国和法国的销量分别下降了71%和44%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39bc5230874e304aa28994bef7084552","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111613045","content_text":"周三，特斯拉盘前转跌，此前一度涨逾3%。德国联邦汽车运输管理局的数据显示，特斯拉2月在德国的销量暴跌76%至1429辆，因该公司的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克惹恼了参加该国竞争激烈的联邦选举的选民。特斯拉的表现与整体电动汽车注册量形成鲜明对比，后者在2月份增长了31%。在2月23日大选前的几个月里，马斯克为极右翼政党德国选择党背书，为这个反移民、亲俄、抨击国家政治体制的政党提供支持。虽然德国选择党跃居第二，但可能成为下一任总理的弗里德里希·梅尔茨誓言要与该党保持距离。今年头两个月，特斯拉在欧盟最大电动汽车市场德国和法国的销量分别下降了71%和44%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FDXSmain":1,"TSLA":1.1,"FDXMmain":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409991003386480,"gmtCreate":1741104999634,"gmtModify":1741105000887,"author":{"id":"3470037961993035","authorId":"3470037961993035","name":"我查杰","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470037961993035","authorIdStr":"3470037961993035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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