呼延觉罗陈的个人主页 - 老虎社区

呼延觉罗陈

呼延觉罗陈

国际心理咨询师

IP属地：山东

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呼延觉罗陈

2019-07-05

$Oasmia Pharmaceutical AB(OASM)$ 惊险

呼延觉罗陈

2019-07-01

$Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc.(IEA)$ 这一波还可以

呼延觉罗陈

2019-06-29

$Foresight Autonomous Holdings Ltd.(FRSX)$ 终于等到你，还好我没放弃，睡了睡了

呼延觉罗陈

2019-07-09

$Camber Energy(CEI)$ 神股

呼延觉罗陈

2019-06-28

$Foresight Autonomous Holdings Ltd.(FRSX)$ 人有多大胆，地有多大产

呼延觉罗陈

2019-06-27

$XpresSpa Group(XSPA)$ 溜了溜了

呼延觉罗陈

2019-08-17

$研控科技(RCON)$ 没人关注啊

呼延觉罗陈

2019-07-03

$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$ 84进，90出，可以睡觉了

呼延觉罗陈

2019-07-04

$Hunter Maritime Acquisition Corp.(HUNT)$ 网信良性退出，，，完犊子了

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450 万美元，目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%；但离奇是，同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%，两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化：从图上的预测可以看出，到明年9月份，美联储在加息到5%以上后，甚至有可能突然降息？如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差，那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注，这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看，资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外，还削减了日元和英镑的净空头，增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","listText":"今天简单聊聊一个诡异的情况：有人突然押注了美元的持续下跌。是的，你没有看错，尽管美元指数已经在106上下的点位企稳反弹，但大量的交易者已经认为美元的跌幅很可能并不止于此处，他们似乎在押注着这样一个剧本：一轮更大的美元抛盘将随时展开，美元指数的走势上，将出现头肩顶的典型形态，从而反转向下。从最新的CFTC持仓数据上看，资管盘在美元空头上的加码出现了罕见的跳涨，这让截止上周的资管盘空头头寸来到了近两年来的新高而从历史走势上看，每到这样一个空头押注出现的时候，美元要么是直接向下探底，要么是大幅反弹后再掉头向下，很少有持续上行的情况。如果你认为资管盘上的空头可能是对冲策略的需要，那么来看看非商业头寸和投机盘的押注：截止上周11月15日，非商业和投机盘的头寸已经从之前几个月的大幅看多，突然转变为中性，对美元的看多头寸削减到了0轴附近。这绝对不是巧合，但如果还有人认为CFTC的数据有着延迟效应而并不足以反应事实真相的话，那么看看这个：就在本周一开盘，冷僻的隔夜利率期货期权市场上，美国银行系统内，国债抵押隔夜回购利率sofr的2023年的9月期货上，有人突然大笔押注sofr的利率将回到2%.根据一家美国本土券商Bollingbroke公布的数据，这笔押注的保费约为 450 万美元，目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%；但离奇是，同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%，两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化：从图上的预测可以看出，到明年9月份，美联储在加息到5%以上后，甚至有可能突然降息？如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差，那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注，这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看，资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外，还削减了日元和英镑的净空头，增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","text":"今天简单聊聊一个诡异的情况：有人突然押注了美元的持续下跌。是的，你没有看错，尽管美元指数已经在106上下的点位企稳反弹，但大量的交易者已经认为美元的跌幅很可能并不止于此处，他们似乎在押注着这样一个剧本：一轮更大的美元抛盘将随时展开，美元指数的走势上，将出现头肩顶的典型形态，从而反转向下。从最新的CFTC持仓数据上看，资管盘在美元空头上的加码出现了罕见的跳涨，这让截止上周的资管盘空头头寸来到了近两年来的新高而从历史走势上看，每到这样一个空头押注出现的时候，美元要么是直接向下探底，要么是大幅反弹后再掉头向下，很少有持续上行的情况。如果你认为资管盘上的空头可能是对冲策略的需要，那么来看看非商业头寸和投机盘的押注：截止上周11月15日，非商业和投机盘的头寸已经从之前几个月的大幅看多，突然转变为中性，对美元的看多头寸削减到了0轴附近。这绝对不是巧合，但如果还有人认为CFTC的数据有着延迟效应而并不足以反应事实真相的话，那么看看这个：就在本周一开盘，冷僻的隔夜利率期货期权市场上，美国银行系统内，国债抵押隔夜回购利率sofr的2023年的9月期货上，有人突然大笔押注sofr的利率将回到2%.根据一家美国本土券商Bollingbroke公布的数据，这笔押注的保费约为 450 万美元，目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%；但离奇是，同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%，两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化：从图上的预测可以看出，到明年9月份，美联储在加息到5%以上后，甚至有可能突然降息？如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差，那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注，这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看，资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外，还削减了日元和英镑的净空头，增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f01f5e1b95007fe973a9a31aa29d279","width":"1030","height":"135"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dcd29b0d7dcd28329d9a3313f04a811","width":"1080","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bb9bfbb3af4c86846ee7bc050d292b","width":"929","height":"579"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667727832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629027813,"gmtCreate":1670115047532,"gmtModify":1670115049047,"author":{"id":"3470892122435081","authorId":"3470892122435081","name":"呼延觉罗陈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f424b11ebad5d20f69641cb23f9cbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470892122435081","idStr":"3470892122435081"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629027813","repostId":"620902776","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":620902776,"gmtCreate":1669263638695,"gmtModify":1744960864654,"author":{"id":"3510558082622800","authorId":"3510558082622800","name":"胖虎哒哒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b95d9326c02813b7b87ba8c1eccb5a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3510558082622800","idStr":"3510558082622800"},"themes":[],"title":"起底卡塔尔投资局：全球第九大财富基金为何成为马斯克的金主？","htmlText":"豪掷2000亿美元，为世界杯造了一座城的卡塔尔，是如何在全球资产中支配自己的财富的？公开资料显示，卡塔尔总面积11521平方千米，约是1.8个上海，卡塔尔总人口为265.8万，约只有上海2418万常住人口的1/10。但就是这样一个弹丸小国，人均GDP却让全球100多个国家望尘莫及。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，卡塔尔2022年的人均GDP预计高达8.3万美元，人均GDP排名跃升第5位。如同多数中东国家一样，卡塔尔小国巨富的背后，有三大“聚宝盆”——石油、天然气与投资。石油、天然气是卡塔尔财富起源，油气出口让卡塔尔积累起大量财富，“当地人有一句谚语，‘一夜之间从骆驼背上跳到了奔驰车里’。很多卡塔尔人，你问他父亲是做什么的，卖石油的；再问他爷爷是做什么的，放羊的。”而投资，则是为了减少对石油、天然气的依赖。2005年，卡塔尔设立了投资局（Qatar Investment Authority，简称“QIA”），负责管理卡塔尔政府的石油和天然气盈余。虽然盛名掩盖在阿联酋旗下主权财富基金阿布扎比投资局（ADIA）之下，但卡塔尔投资局早已置业全球，成为世界第九大主权财富基金。全球第九大主权财富基金据《福布斯中东》在10月17日公布的数据，卡塔尔国土面积虽小，但卡塔尔投资局却是全球第九大主权财富基金，管理资产规模达4610亿美元。卡塔尔投资局资产配置包括信贷/固定收益投资、房地产、基础设施、私募股权以及其他另类投资。直接投资团队专注于私募股权投资，方向包括TMT领域、生物医药、消费、房地产、工业与材料等。援引路透社2020年相关报道，卡塔尔投资局首席执行官Mansoor Al-Mahmoud表示，50%至55%的资产配置集中在私募股权和公共股权上。一个月前，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）440亿美元收购Twitter的交易背后，出资人就包括卡塔尔投资局，其提供了3.75亿美元资金，目前","listText":"豪掷2000亿美元，为世界杯造了一座城的卡塔尔，是如何在全球资产中支配自己的财富的？公开资料显示，卡塔尔总面积11521平方千米，约是1.8个上海，卡塔尔总人口为265.8万，约只有上海2418万常住人口的1/10。但就是这样一个弹丸小国，人均GDP却让全球100多个国家望尘莫及。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，卡塔尔2022年的人均GDP预计高达8.3万美元，人均GDP排名跃升第5位。如同多数中东国家一样，卡塔尔小国巨富的背后，有三大“聚宝盆”——石油、天然气与投资。石油、天然气是卡塔尔财富起源，油气出口让卡塔尔积累起大量财富，“当地人有一句谚语，‘一夜之间从骆驼背上跳到了奔驰车里’。很多卡塔尔人，你问他父亲是做什么的，卖石油的；再问他爷爷是做什么的，放羊的。”而投资，则是为了减少对石油、天然气的依赖。2005年，卡塔尔设立了投资局（Qatar Investment Authority，简称“QIA”），负责管理卡塔尔政府的石油和天然气盈余。虽然盛名掩盖在阿联酋旗下主权财富基金阿布扎比投资局（ADIA）之下，但卡塔尔投资局早已置业全球，成为世界第九大主权财富基金。全球第九大主权财富基金据《福布斯中东》在10月17日公布的数据，卡塔尔国土面积虽小，但卡塔尔投资局却是全球第九大主权财富基金，管理资产规模达4610亿美元。卡塔尔投资局资产配置包括信贷/固定收益投资、房地产、基础设施、私募股权以及其他另类投资。直接投资团队专注于私募股权投资，方向包括TMT领域、生物医药、消费、房地产、工业与材料等。援引路透社2020年相关报道，卡塔尔投资局首席执行官Mansoor Al-Mahmoud表示，50%至55%的资产配置集中在私募股权和公共股权上。一个月前，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）440亿美元收购Twitter的交易背后，出资人就包括卡塔尔投资局，其提供了3.75亿美元资金，目前","text":"豪掷2000亿美元，为世界杯造了一座城的卡塔尔，是如何在全球资产中支配自己的财富的？公开资料显示，卡塔尔总面积11521平方千米，约是1.8个上海，卡塔尔总人口为265.8万，约只有上海2418万常住人口的1/10。但就是这样一个弹丸小国，人均GDP却让全球100多个国家望尘莫及。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，卡塔尔2022年的人均GDP预计高达8.3万美元，人均GDP排名跃升第5位。如同多数中东国家一样，卡塔尔小国巨富的背后，有三大“聚宝盆”——石油、天然气与投资。石油、天然气是卡塔尔财富起源，油气出口让卡塔尔积累起大量财富，“当地人有一句谚语，‘一夜之间从骆驼背上跳到了奔驰车里’。很多卡塔尔人，你问他父亲是做什么的，卖石油的；再问他爷爷是做什么的，放羊的。”而投资，则是为了减少对石油、天然气的依赖。2005年，卡塔尔设立了投资局（Qatar Investment Authority，简称“QIA”），负责管理卡塔尔政府的石油和天然气盈余。虽然盛名掩盖在阿联酋旗下主权财富基金阿布扎比投资局（ADIA）之下，但卡塔尔投资局早已置业全球，成为世界第九大主权财富基金。全球第九大主权财富基金据《福布斯中东》在10月17日公布的数据，卡塔尔国土面积虽小，但卡塔尔投资局却是全球第九大主权财富基金，管理资产规模达4610亿美元。卡塔尔投资局资产配置包括信贷/固定收益投资、房地产、基础设施、私募股权以及其他另类投资。直接投资团队专注于私募股权投资，方向包括TMT领域、生物医药、消费、房地产、工业与材料等。援引路透社2020年相关报道，卡塔尔投资局首席执行官Mansoor Al-Mahmoud表示，50%至55%的资产配置集中在私募股权和公共股权上。一个月前，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）440亿美元收购Twitter的交易背后，出资人就包括卡塔尔投资局，其提供了3.75亿美元资金，目前","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e0c0a49ee52c67b9b50254e0722dcb","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7ee83f5d78924edc7af67651586795","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e73a2aa02a9f4cfbaee646cb04adc6","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620902776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629027145,"gmtCreate":1670115041188,"gmtModify":1670115042748,"author":{"id":"3470892122435081","authorId":"3470892122435081","name":"呼延觉罗陈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f424b11ebad5d20f69641cb23f9cbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470892122435081","idStr":"3470892122435081"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629027145","repostId":"667410783","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667410783,"gmtCreate":1669082340142,"gmtModify":1669083670197,"author":{"id":"3554938063633134","authorId":"3554938063633134","name":"3047鐵礦石ETF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f15d1a5f1b2d0ea723d4abc43d3a22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554938063633134","idStr":"3554938063633134"},"themes":[],"title":"大家的资源股如何—油、气、金、铁重点新闻摘要（11月22日）","htmlText":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03047\">$F山证铁矿石(03047)$</a>&nbsp; 内地病例增加加剧了整个商品市场的担忧情绪。由于美联储收紧步伐的不确定性，美元走强加剧了这种情况。 由于有报导称石油输出国组织 (OPEC)计划提高产量，原油市场波动较大。在华尔街日报报导 OPEC+联盟考虑增产 500kb/d后，油价大幅下跌。在沙乌地阿拉伯否认该报告后，石油减少了这些损失；相反，坚持当前 2mb/d的削减幅度一直持续到 2023年底。市场情绪普遍走弱。欧盟即将实施的俄罗斯石油进口禁令和 G7价格上限计划令前景蒙上阴影。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">$马拉松原油(MPC)$</a>&nbsp; 随著欧洲大陆天气变冷的迹象，欧洲天然气小幅走高。预计英国和斯堪的纳维亚半岛的气温将低于季节性标准。德国太阳能发电量下降加剧了这种情况。然而，相对较高的存储水准限制了涨幅，荷兰近月期货收盘仅上涨 0.6%至 116.13欧元/兆瓦时。贸易商也对停电感到不安，自由港液化天然气出口终端的重启推迟到 12月中旬。由于需求疲软，北亚液化天然气价格最初承压。由于国家公用事业公司正在应对燃料过剩，中国正在推迟一些计划中的液化天然气进口。但是，从长远来看，它仍然致力于燃料。它与卡塔尔签署了一项长期协议，从 2026年开始供应 4公吨/年的液化天然气。","listText":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03047\">$F山证铁矿石(03047)$</a>&nbsp; 内地病例增加加剧了整个商品市场的担忧情绪。由于美联储收紧步伐的不确定性，美元走强加剧了这种情况。 由于有报导称石油输出国组织 (OPEC)计划提高产量，原油市场波动较大。在华尔街日报报导 OPEC+联盟考虑增产 500kb/d后，油价大幅下跌。在沙乌地阿拉伯否认该报告后，石油减少了这些损失；相反，坚持当前 2mb/d的削减幅度一直持续到 2023年底。市场情绪普遍走弱。欧盟即将实施的俄罗斯石油进口禁令和 G7价格上限计划令前景蒙上阴影。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">$马拉松原油(MPC)$</a>&nbsp; 随著欧洲大陆天气变冷的迹象，欧洲天然气小幅走高。预计英国和斯堪的纳维亚半岛的气温将低于季节性标准。德国太阳能发电量下降加剧了这种情况。然而，相对较高的存储水准限制了涨幅，荷兰近月期货收盘仅上涨 0.6%至 116.13欧元/兆瓦时。贸易商也对停电感到不安，自由港液化天然气出口终端的重启推迟到 12月中旬。由于需求疲软，北亚液化天然气价格最初承压。由于国家公用事业公司正在应对燃料过剩，中国正在推迟一些计划中的液化天然气进口。但是，从长远来看，它仍然致力于燃料。它与卡塔尔签署了一项长期协议，从 2026年开始供应 4公吨/年的液化天然气。","text":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 $F山证铁矿石(03047)$ 内地病例增加加剧了整个商品市场的担忧情绪。由于美联储收紧步伐的不确定性，美元走强加剧了这种情况。 由于有报导称石油输出国组织 (OPEC)计划提高产量，原油市场波动较大。在华尔街日报报导 OPEC+联盟考虑增产 500kb/d后，油价大幅下跌。在沙乌地阿拉伯否认该报告后，石油减少了这些损失；相反，坚持当前 2mb/d的削减幅度一直持续到 2023年底。市场情绪普遍走弱。欧盟即将实施的俄罗斯石油进口禁令和 G7价格上限计划令前景蒙上阴影。 $西方石油(OXY)$ $马拉松原油(MPC)$ 随著欧洲大陆天气变冷的迹象，欧洲天然气小幅走高。预计英国和斯堪的纳维亚半岛的气温将低于季节性标准。德国太阳能发电量下降加剧了这种情况。然而，相对较高的存储水准限制了涨幅，荷兰近月期货收盘仅上涨 0.6%至 116.13欧元/兆瓦时。贸易商也对停电感到不安，自由港液化天然气出口终端的重启推迟到 12月中旬。由于需求疲软，北亚液化天然气价格最初承压。由于国家公用事业公司正在应对燃料过剩，中国正在推迟一些计划中的液化天然气进口。但是，从长远来看，它仍然致力于燃料。它与卡塔尔签署了一项长期协议，从 2026年开始供应 4公吨/年的液化天然气。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6d5f8abd54385f4427791cbe426795","width":"554","height":"653"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667410783","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629027078,"gmtCreate":1670114778694,"gmtModify":1670114780251,"author":{"id":"3470892122435081","authorId":"3470892122435081","name":"呼延觉罗陈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f424b11ebad5d20f69641cb23f9cbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470892122435081","idStr":"3470892122435081"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629027078","repostId":"667566461","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667566461,"gmtCreate":1669018601054,"gmtModify":1744960863398,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440721572920950","idStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"美联储官员为何频繁“鹰”派发声？","htmlText":"中期选举截止至11月20日，美国中期选举的虽然没有完全计票结束，但是结果已经确定：共和党以219:212时隔四年重新掌控众议院（高于218票），而民主党则继续锁定参议院（50个席位、加上副总统1票）。分裂国会的局面正式形成。虽然赢下众议院，但共和党没有出现“红色浪潮”（Red Wave），比市场预期更弱一些，原因可能有很多种：包括此前民调的误差、邮寄选票的影响。但结果已经如此，即在国会难以形成绝对主导。而民主党方面，很明显由于此前的疫情影响，加上选举前的高通胀压力，不仅丢掉众议院，而且拜登总统持续支持率较低。这样的结局，在经济上会有什么直接后果呢？显然，共和党在财政政策更有话语权（美国宪法规定，所有税收相关法案、拨款法案或授权开支联邦资金均应由众议院提议，而参议院无权提案）。因此美国国债的债务上限的风险也在加大，政府停摆的可能性再次增大。至当前，美国公共债务规模达到了31.3万亿美元，逼近31.4万亿美元法定债务上限。可能受影响的政府开支案包括： 2021年3月的1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案 2021年11月的5500 亿美元基建法案 还未通过的1.75万亿美元“重建美好未来法案”（Build Back Better） 2022 年8月通过的芯片与科学法案（Chips and Science Act） 通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act of 2022） 暂时被阻止的生贷款削减计划（Student Debt Relief Plan）。 受影响的行业从制造业、金融科技，到非必须消费品行业。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIA\">$道琼斯ETF(DIA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">$卡特彼勒(CAT)$</a>","listText":"中期选举截止至11月20日，美国中期选举的虽然没有完全计票结束，但是结果已经确定：共和党以219:212时隔四年重新掌控众议院（高于218票），而民主党则继续锁定参议院（50个席位、加上副总统1票）。分裂国会的局面正式形成。虽然赢下众议院，但共和党没有出现“红色浪潮”（Red Wave），比市场预期更弱一些，原因可能有很多种：包括此前民调的误差、邮寄选票的影响。但结果已经如此，即在国会难以形成绝对主导。而民主党方面，很明显由于此前的疫情影响，加上选举前的高通胀压力，不仅丢掉众议院，而且拜登总统持续支持率较低。这样的结局，在经济上会有什么直接后果呢？显然，共和党在财政政策更有话语权（美国宪法规定，所有税收相关法案、拨款法案或授权开支联邦资金均应由众议院提议，而参议院无权提案）。因此美国国债的债务上限的风险也在加大，政府停摆的可能性再次增大。至当前，美国公共债务规模达到了31.3万亿美元，逼近31.4万亿美元法定债务上限。可能受影响的政府开支案包括： 2021年3月的1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案 2021年11月的5500 亿美元基建法案 还未通过的1.75万亿美元“重建美好未来法案”（Build Back Better） 2022 年8月通过的芯片与科学法案（Chips and Science Act） 通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act of 2022） 暂时被阻止的生贷款削减计划（Student Debt Relief Plan）。 受影响的行业从制造业、金融科技，到非必须消费品行业。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIA\">$道琼斯ETF(DIA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">$卡特彼勒(CAT)$</a>","text":"中期选举截止至11月20日，美国中期选举的虽然没有完全计票结束，但是结果已经确定：共和党以219:212时隔四年重新掌控众议院（高于218票），而民主党则继续锁定参议院（50个席位、加上副总统1票）。分裂国会的局面正式形成。虽然赢下众议院，但共和党没有出现“红色浪潮”（Red Wave），比市场预期更弱一些，原因可能有很多种：包括此前民调的误差、邮寄选票的影响。但结果已经如此，即在国会难以形成绝对主导。而民主党方面，很明显由于此前的疫情影响，加上选举前的高通胀压力，不仅丢掉众议院，而且拜登总统持续支持率较低。这样的结局，在经济上会有什么直接后果呢？显然，共和党在财政政策更有话语权（美国宪法规定，所有税收相关法案、拨款法案或授权开支联邦资金均应由众议院提议，而参议院无权提案）。因此美国国债的债务上限的风险也在加大，政府停摆的可能性再次增大。至当前，美国公共债务规模达到了31.3万亿美元，逼近31.4万亿美元法定债务上限。可能受影响的政府开支案包括： 2021年3月的1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案 2021年11月的5500 亿美元基建法案 还未通过的1.75万亿美元“重建美好未来法案”（Build Back Better） 2022 年8月通过的芯片与科学法案（Chips and Science Act） 通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act of 2022） 暂时被阻止的生贷款削减计划（Student Debt Relief Plan）。 受影响的行业从制造业、金融科技，到非必须消费品行业。$道琼斯ETF(DIA)$ 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450 万美元，目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%；但离奇是，同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%，两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化：从图上的预测可以看出，到明年9月份，美联储在加息到5%以上后，甚至有可能突然降息？如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差，那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注，这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看，资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外，还削减了日元和英镑的净空头，增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","listText":"今天简单聊聊一个诡异的情况：有人突然押注了美元的持续下跌。是的，你没有看错，尽管美元指数已经在106上下的点位企稳反弹，但大量的交易者已经认为美元的跌幅很可能并不止于此处，他们似乎在押注着这样一个剧本：一轮更大的美元抛盘将随时展开，美元指数的走势上，将出现头肩顶的典型形态，从而反转向下。从最新的CFTC持仓数据上看，资管盘在美元空头上的加码出现了罕见的跳涨，这让截止上周的资管盘空头头寸来到了近两年来的新高而从历史走势上看，每到这样一个空头押注出现的时候，美元要么是直接向下探底，要么是大幅反弹后再掉头向下，很少有持续上行的情况。如果你认为资管盘上的空头可能是对冲策略的需要，那么来看看非商业头寸和投机盘的押注：截止上周11月15日，非商业和投机盘的头寸已经从之前几个月的大幅看多，突然转变为中性，对美元的看多头寸削减到了0轴附近。这绝对不是巧合，但如果还有人认为CFTC的数据有着延迟效应而并不足以反应事实真相的话，那么看看这个：就在本周一开盘，冷僻的隔夜利率期货期权市场上，美国银行系统内，国债抵押隔夜回购利率sofr的2023年的9月期货上，有人突然大笔押注sofr的利率将回到2%.根据一家美国本土券商Bollingbroke公布的数据，这笔押注的保费约为 450 万美元，目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%；但离奇是，同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%，两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化：从图上的预测可以看出，到明年9月份，美联储在加息到5%以上后，甚至有可能突然降息？如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差，那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注，这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看，资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外，还削减了日元和英镑的净空头，增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","text":"今天简单聊聊一个诡异的情况：有人突然押注了美元的持续下跌。是的，你没有看错，尽管美元指数已经在106上下的点位企稳反弹，但大量的交易者已经认为美元的跌幅很可能并不止于此处，他们似乎在押注着这样一个剧本：一轮更大的美元抛盘将随时展开，美元指数的走势上，将出现头肩顶的典型形态，从而反转向下。从最新的CFTC持仓数据上看，资管盘在美元空头上的加码出现了罕见的跳涨，这让截止上周的资管盘空头头寸来到了近两年来的新高而从历史走势上看，每到这样一个空头押注出现的时候，美元要么是直接向下探底，要么是大幅反弹后再掉头向下，很少有持续上行的情况。如果你认为资管盘上的空头可能是对冲策略的需要，那么来看看非商业头寸和投机盘的押注：截止上周11月15日，非商业和投机盘的头寸已经从之前几个月的大幅看多，突然转变为中性，对美元的看多头寸削减到了0轴附近。这绝对不是巧合，但如果还有人认为CFTC的数据有着延迟效应而并不足以反应事实真相的话，那么看看这个：就在本周一开盘，冷僻的隔夜利率期货期权市场上，美国银行系统内，国债抵押隔夜回购利率sofr的2023年的9月期货上，有人突然大笔押注sofr的利率将回到2%.根据一家美国本土券商Bollingbroke公布的数据，这笔押注的保费约为 450 万美元，目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%；但离奇是，同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%，两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化：从图上的预测可以看出，到明年9月份，美联储在加息到5%以上后，甚至有可能突然降息？如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差，那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注，这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看，资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外，还削减了日元和英镑的净空头，增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f01f5e1b95007fe973a9a31aa29d279","width":"1030","height":"135"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dcd29b0d7dcd28329d9a3313f04a811","width":"1080","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bb9bfbb3af4c86846ee7bc050d292b","width":"929","height":"579"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667727832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629024486,"gmtCreate":1670114761446,"gmtModify":1670114763146,"author":{"id":"3470892122435081","authorId":"3470892122435081","name":"呼延觉罗陈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f424b11ebad5d20f69641cb23f9cbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470892122435081","idStr":"3470892122435081"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629024486","repostId":"667410783","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667410783,"gmtCreate":1669082340142,"gmtModify":1669083670197,"author":{"id":"3554938063633134","authorId":"3554938063633134","name":"3047鐵礦石ETF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f15d1a5f1b2d0ea723d4abc43d3a22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554938063633134","idStr":"3554938063633134"},"themes":[],"title":"大家的资源股如何—油、气、金、铁重点新闻摘要（11月22日）","htmlText":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03047\">$F山证铁矿石(03047)$</a>&nbsp; 内地病例增加加剧了整个商品市场的担忧情绪。由于美联储收紧步伐的不确定性，美元走强加剧了这种情况。 由于有报导称石油输出国组织 (OPEC)计划提高产量，原油市场波动较大。在华尔街日报报导 OPEC+联盟考虑增产 500kb/d后，油价大幅下跌。在沙乌地阿拉伯否认该报告后，石油减少了这些损失；相反，坚持当前 2mb/d的削减幅度一直持续到 2023年底。市场情绪普遍走弱。欧盟即将实施的俄罗斯石油进口禁令和 G7价格上限计划令前景蒙上阴影。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">$马拉松原油(MPC)$</a>&nbsp; 随著欧洲大陆天气变冷的迹象，欧洲天然气小幅走高。预计英国和斯堪的纳维亚半岛的气温将低于季节性标准。德国太阳能发电量下降加剧了这种情况。然而，相对较高的存储水准限制了涨幅，荷兰近月期货收盘仅上涨 0.6%至 116.13欧元/兆瓦时。贸易商也对停电感到不安，自由港液化天然气出口终端的重启推迟到 12月中旬。由于需求疲软，北亚液化天然气价格最初承压。由于国家公用事业公司正在应对燃料过剩，中国正在推迟一些计划中的液化天然气进口。但是，从长远来看，它仍然致力于燃料。它与卡塔尔签署了一项长期协议，从 2026年开始供应 4公吨/年的液化天然气。","listText":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03047\">$F山证铁矿石(03047)$</a>&nbsp; 内地病例增加加剧了整个商品市场的担忧情绪。由于美联储收紧步伐的不确定性，美元走强加剧了这种情况。 由于有报导称石油输出国组织 (OPEC)计划提高产量，原油市场波动较大。在华尔街日报报导 OPEC+联盟考虑增产 500kb/d后，油价大幅下跌。在沙乌地阿拉伯否认该报告后，石油减少了这些损失；相反，坚持当前 2mb/d的削减幅度一直持续到 2023年底。市场情绪普遍走弱。欧盟即将实施的俄罗斯石油进口禁令和 G7价格上限计划令前景蒙上阴影。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">$马拉松原油(MPC)$</a>&nbsp; 随著欧洲大陆天气变冷的迹象，欧洲天然气小幅走高。预计英国和斯堪的纳维亚半岛的气温将低于季节性标准。德国太阳能发电量下降加剧了这种情况。然而，相对较高的存储水准限制了涨幅，荷兰近月期货收盘仅上涨 0.6%至 116.13欧元/兆瓦时。贸易商也对停电感到不安，自由港液化天然气出口终端的重启推迟到 12月中旬。由于需求疲软，北亚液化天然气价格最初承压。由于国家公用事业公司正在应对燃料过剩，中国正在推迟一些计划中的液化天然气进口。但是，从长远来看，它仍然致力于燃料。它与卡塔尔签署了一项长期协议，从 2026年开始供应 4公吨/年的液化天然气。","text":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 $F山证铁矿石(03047)$ 内地病例增加加剧了整个商品市场的担忧情绪。由于美联储收紧步伐的不确定性，美元走强加剧了这种情况。 由于有报导称石油输出国组织 (OPEC)计划提高产量，原油市场波动较大。在华尔街日报报导 OPEC+联盟考虑增产 500kb/d后，油价大幅下跌。在沙乌地阿拉伯否认该报告后，石油减少了这些损失；相反，坚持当前 2mb/d的削减幅度一直持续到 2023年底。市场情绪普遍走弱。欧盟即将实施的俄罗斯石油进口禁令和 G7价格上限计划令前景蒙上阴影。 $西方石油(OXY)$ $马拉松原油(MPC)$ 随著欧洲大陆天气变冷的迹象，欧洲天然气小幅走高。预计英国和斯堪的纳维亚半岛的气温将低于季节性标准。德国太阳能发电量下降加剧了这种情况。然而，相对较高的存储水准限制了涨幅，荷兰近月期货收盘仅上涨 0.6%至 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