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2019-12-13

$Shopify Inc(SHOP)$持有

2019-03-15

$兰亭集势(LITB)$ 价值投资

2020-02-12

$Shopify Inc(SHOP)$来晒

2018-09-21

$兰亭集势(LITB)$0.56 可以进了

2020-01-11

$Shopify Inc(SHOP)$说点啥

2019-08-13

$Shopify Inc(SHOP)$继续

2020-02-20

2020.02.20 复盘笔记 by jellzone

2020-02-20 成本现价浮动收益 ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS-A(ZM) 74.84 104.99 +40.29% 继续看涨

2020.02.20 复盘笔记 by jellzone

2020-05-11

$Zoom(ZM)$今年慢慢来吧

2020-03-10

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$天佑美国[默哀]

2020-02-06

$Shopify Inc(SHOP)$我好你也好

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data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 都别卖了 拿好","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 都别卖了 拿好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343503169741096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300101815439560,"gmtCreate":1714286441749,"gmtModify":1714286445280,"author":{"id":"3474429454329829","authorId":"3474429454329829","name":"jellzone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b06c0bcc05f3255298fbce234b05bf0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474429454329829","idStr":"3474429454329829"},"themes":[],"title":"2024.04.28 复盘笔记 by jellzone","htmlText":"2024-04-28 成本 现价 浮动收益 英伟达(NVDA) 777.98 879.30 +13.02% 778卖出 马上买回，还好没有卖飞","listText":"2024-04-28 成本 现价 浮动收益 英伟达(NVDA) 777.98 879.30 +13.02% 778卖出 马上买回，还好没有卖飞","text":"2024-04-28 成本 现价 浮动收益 英伟达(NVDA) 777.98 879.30 +13.02% 778卖出 马上买回，还好没有卖飞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300101815439560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659898522,"gmtCreate":1679926899066,"gmtModify":1679926901679,"author":{"id":"3474429454329829","authorId":"3474429454329829","name":"jellzone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b06c0bcc05f3255298fbce234b05bf0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474429454329829","idStr":"3474429454329829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"震撼，激动","listText":"震撼，激动","text":"震撼，激动","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659898522","repostId":"1126058534","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1126058534","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679914944,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126058534?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-27 19:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"微软154页研究论文刷屏！对GPT-4最全测试曝光，称其初次叩开AGI的大门","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126058534","media":"CSDN","summary":"2019 年，微软用 10 亿美元砸进 OpenAI，两者展开为期数年的合作。当时两家对外公开的合作内容包括，微软和 OpenAI 将联合开发新的 Azure AI 超级计算技术，而 OpenAI 也","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2019 年，微软用 10 亿美元砸进 OpenAI，两者展开为期数年的合作。</p><p>当时两家对外公开的合作内容包括，微软和 OpenAI 将联合开发新的 Azure AI 超级计算技术，而 OpenAI 也将把它的服务转移到 Azure 上运行，最终目标是向通用人工智能（Artificial General Intelligence，AGI）技术发起进攻。</p><p>简单总结，微软与 OpenAI 联手，也被外界解读为，明为 AGI 研究，暗争 Google 市场。</p><p>几年之后，当 OpenAI 带着 ChatGPT、GPT-4 王者归来，微软率先利用这些技术加码新 Bing、Office 全家桶、Azure 等业务、产品之时，毋庸置疑，其进度早已超越了 Google 还在加快融入 Bard 大模型的整体步伐。</p><p>那么在明面上，AGI 的进度到底走到了哪里？</p><p>近日，微软研究团队用 154 页的论文报告内容给出了解答——<b>GPT-4 语言模型可以被视为 AGI 的早期版本！</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d03f8e255882a99c71fc0f021a323b16\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>一石激起千层浪，业界对于这篇论文的反应，不亚于去年听到「Google 工程师称 AI 已有自我意识」初觉有些荒诞，只是现如今再想会认为有什么不可能，深读后又觉得有些许的真实。</p><p>所谓 AGI，仅通过维基百科的解释——「AGI 是具备与人类同等智能、或超越人类的人工智能，能表现正常人类所具有的所有智能行为」。倘若 GPT-4 真的已成为通往 AGI 的第一步，「最高等的智慧生物」称号是不是要易主了？</p><p><b>GPT-4 被合理地视为 AGI 的早期（但仍不完整）的版本</b></p><p>在论文中，微软研究人员表示，「由 OpenAI 开发的最新模型 GPT-4，是使用前所未有的计算和数据规模训练出来的。在论文中，我们报告了我们对 GPT-4 早期版本的调查，当时它还在 OpenAI 的积极开发中。我们认为，（这个早期版本的）GPT-4 是新一批 LLM（例如，与 ChatGPT 和谷歌的 PaLM 一起）的一部分，它比以前的 AI 模型表现出更多的通用智能。」</p><p>与此同时，研究人员在论文摘要中写道，“我们证明，除了对语言的掌握，GPT-4 还能解决跨越数学、编码、视觉、医学、法律、心理学等领域的新颖而困难的任务，而不需要任何特殊的提示。此外，<b>在</b>所有这些任务中，GPT-4 的表现都惊人地接近人类水平，而且往往大大超过了 ChatGPT 等先前的模型<b>。鉴于 GPT-4 能力的广度和深度，我们认为可以合理地将其视为人工通用智能（AGI）系统的早期（但仍不完整）版本。</b>”</p><p>之所以得出这样的结论，这篇论文背后的作者包括微软研究院机器学习基础组的高级首席研究经理 Sébastien Bubeck、博士后研究员 Varun Chandrasekaran、数学家  Ronen Eldan 等人，用许多示例对 GPT-4 的能力进行了验证。</p><p><b>GPT-4 的多能力</b></p><p>在第一个案例中，研究人员要求 GPT-4 「写出有无限多个素数的证明，且证明的表述要每行都押韵」，另外 GPT-4 要在绘图程序 TiKZ 中画出一只独角兽」。其中，TiKZ（一种在 LATEX 中创建图形的语言），用 Python 创建一个复杂的动画，并解决一个高中水平的数学问题。</p><p>GPT-4 在所有这些任务中都很容易取得成功，并且产生的输出结果基本上与人类所能产生的结果没有区别（甚至更好）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05d65285f01dbb0ac96bbf0802df8511\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>同时，随着时间的推移，GPT-4 也在以难以想象的速度不断扩充自己的能力。如下图所示是一个月期间，研究人员用相同的提示词让 GPT-4 生成的绘图。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a00d527473c5f93eb1b79b5bae32c3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>研究人员发现，GPT-4 似乎能够理解和连接任何主题，并且能够执行任务，这超出了狭义人工智能系统的典型范围。为了验证 GPT-4 在 AGI 上所具备的能力，研究人员提出了一种不同的方法来研究 GPT-4，它更接近于传统的心理学而不是机器学习，利用人类的创造力和好奇心。</p><p>因此，以上图为例，当研究人员把独角兽角部分的代码认为删除之后，用自然语言让 GPT-4 生成时，它也能做到“看”（此时测试的 GPT-4 版本不是多模态的）的能力：自动在合适位置加上角。这表明 GPT-4 它可以根据自然语言描述来理解和操作代码，以及推断和生成视觉特征。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca60dc79c4d71f395fb827dac68a3e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外，微软研究团队基于人类的创造力和好奇心来产生新颖和困难的问题，并探测 GPT-4 的反应和行为，也选择从 1994 年国际共识智力定义中的所给出不同能力进行验证，包括推理、计划、解决问题、抽象思考、理解复杂的想法、快速学习和从经验中学习的能力。</p><p><b>翻译</b></p><p>GPT-4 的主要优势是它对自然语言无与伦比地掌握。它不仅可以生成生成流畅和连贯的文本，而且还能以各种方式理解和处理它，如总结、翻译或回答极其复杂的问题。此外，这里提到的翻译我们所说的翻译不仅是指不同自然语言之间的翻译，还包括语气和风格的翻译，以及跨领的翻译，如医学、法律、会计、计算机编程、音乐等等。如假设是柏拉图批判自回归语言模型：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0f4c13eabe0eee91bdb3f266d8e88f\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>编码和数据</b></p><p>编码和数学是抽象推理和思维能力的象征。GPT-4 在这一点上的能力，其实自上线测试那一天，便有目共睹。</p><p>在论文中，研究人员在 HumanEval 上对 GPT-4 进行基准测试，该数据集由 164 个编码问题组成，测试了编程逻辑和熟练程度的各个方面。</p><p>最终结果显示，GPT-4 优于其他 LLM，包括 text-davinci-003（ChatGPT 的基础模型）和其他专门针对代码训练的模型。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65bda6dc18d1d667cbc6bee5b25d630\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"145\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>当然为了避免 GPT-4 在预训练时已经记住了HumanEval 数据集的一些内容，研究团队还用 LeetCode 上最新发布的 100 个编程问题进行了测试，如要求 GPT-4 编写一个 Python 函数，并使用 LeetCode 的官方在线评判来检查正确性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32198a63144b30ac084460aca53b470d\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>毫无疑问，GPT-4 的能力是所有模型中最高的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f544122b5a2a69928f152fe11ef42051\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>它可以在 HTML 中用 JavaScript 编写一个 3D 游戏。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49af5147998d6cc67c45b9710518b7e8\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"731\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>也能掌握数学、统计学知识，以及凭借对 PyTorch、TensorFlow、Keras 等框架和库的熟悉度，编写深度学习的代码。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e023c35eb4416661dc7b46412adc06\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"991\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>还能逆向工程：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44cb9dfe023db457e53f1f7c60b760e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1019\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>常识性问题</b></p><p>针对一些常识性问题，如“我们有一本书，9 个鸡蛋，一台笔记本电脑，一个瓶子和一个钉子。请告诉我如何以稳定的方式将它们叠在一起”，GPT-4 给出的解答是，“将 9 个鸡蛋摆成 3 乘 3 的正方形，放在书的上面，在它们之间留出一些空间”，而 ChatGPT 提出「将鸡蛋放在钉子上面，确保它们是平衡的，不会向一边倾斜」，靠谱和离谱还是一眼就能辨清楚的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1f9cd47eca000a48ae1dd5d793ab4c\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>多模态能力</b></p><p>为了测试该模型结合艺术和编程能力的能力，研究人员要求 GPT-4  &#34;生成 JavaScript 代码，以画家康定斯基的风格生成随机图像&#34;，结果是这样的：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81d7625bce02914c0f74f27386737a1d\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35c83936be2891ecd60fb804bd707a94\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在测试时，因为研究人员拿到GPT-4 模型比较早，当时并不具备多模态能力，即使是现在的 GPT-4 也不具备生成图像等能力。</p><p>不过倒是可以使用 SVG（可扩展矢量图形）生成一些图像：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938a3d2786522a3e75078990fa422fb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>还能结合字母和物体：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083df94d8b1309e5ebd0c477503ebf81\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"974\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GPT-4 可以从提示中生成代码，这些代码可以被呈现为图像，再与现有的图像合成模型相结合，就有可能为应用开发的草图带来无限的可能：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9141519e08c8398a0423d686ba1ec9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>值得注意的是，GPT-4 模型的数据也包含了以ABC符号编码的音乐信息，所以它也能生成图谱：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641412ac4938a0b06ea2bf083ed0d47c\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"870\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>与世界交互的能力</b></p><p>智能的一个关键方面是互动性。不过 GPT-4 对当前最新的知识和符号识别是存在一定的局限性的：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e339e3647654071378efb8900a12f3e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>整体而言，研究小组发现，GPT-4 在其上一代产品所缺乏的一系列类别中达到了接近人类水平的性能。根据该论文，GPT-4 在几次考试中也表现得非常好，在律师考试、LSAT 和注册侍酒师理论测试中的得分分别为 90 分、88 分和 86 分。</p><p><b>GPT-4 距离理想中的 AGI 还有多远？</b></p><p>那么，在 GPT-4 实现种种能力的基础上，是否就意味着 AGI 时代的到来。其实不然，研究人员目前尚未就 AGI 或智能的定义达成一致。然而，一般来说，大家都会同意，当一个人工智能系统有意识并像人类一样思考时，就已经达到了 AGI。虽然 GPT-4 在一些任务中的表现优于人类，但值得注意的是，人工智能并没有像人类那样克服这些障碍。</p><p>这也正如研究人员在论文中写道，“我们声称 GPT-4 代表了 AGI 的进步，但这并不意味着它在做什么方面是完美的，或者它接近于能够做人类能做的任何事情（这是 AGI 的通常定义之一），或者它有内在的动机和目标。”</p><p>研究人员指出，虽然 GPT-4 &#34;在许多任务上达到或超过了人类水平&#34;，但它的整体 &#34;智能模式明显不像人类&#34;，其希望这一次的探索提供了一个欣赏 GPT-4 的非凡能力和挑战的第一步，也希望 GPT-4 为开发更正式和全面的方法来测试和分析具有如此广泛智能的未来人工智能系统开辟了新的机会。</p><p>「我们工作的核心主张是，GPT-4 达到了一种通用智能的形式，确实擦出了 AGI 的火花。这表现在它的核心心智能力（如推理、创造力和推理），它获得专业知识的主题范围（如文学、医学和编码），以及它能够完成的各种任务（如玩游戏、使用工具、解释自己，......）」研究人员说道，不过，要创建一个可以被称为完整的 AGI 的系统，还有很多事情要做。</p><p>最后，这篇论文对于GPT-4 各种基准测试还是值得一看，从中也能挖掘出 GPT-4 更多的潜力。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1578046468581","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>微软154页研究论文刷屏！对GPT-4最全测试曝光，称其初次叩开AGI的大门</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n微软154页研究论文刷屏！对GPT-4最全测试曝光，称其初次叩开AGI的大门\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-27 19:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SRtxiqeGbAIXl-8KraGAyQ><strong>CSDN</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2019 年，微软用 10 亿美元砸进 OpenAI，两者展开为期数年的合作。当时两家对外公开的合作内容包括，微软和 OpenAI 将联合开发新的 Azure AI 超级计算技术，而 OpenAI 也将把它的服务转移到 Azure 上运行，最终目标是向通用人工智能（Artificial General Intelligence，AGI）技术发起进攻。简单总结，微软与 OpenAI 联手，也被外界...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SRtxiqeGbAIXl-8KraGAyQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{"GPT.AU":"GPT GROUP","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0498741890.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Gold and Precious Metals A (acc) SGD","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","GPT":"Intelligent alpha atlas ETF","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","BK7510":"REITs概念","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","AGI":"Alamos Gold Inc","MSFT":"微软","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SRtxiqeGbAIXl-8KraGAyQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126058534","content_text":"2019 年，微软用 10 亿美元砸进 OpenAI，两者展开为期数年的合作。当时两家对外公开的合作内容包括，微软和 OpenAI 将联合开发新的 Azure AI 超级计算技术，而 OpenAI 也将把它的服务转移到 Azure 上运行，最终目标是向通用人工智能（Artificial General Intelligence，AGI）技术发起进攻。简单总结，微软与 OpenAI 联手，也被外界解读为，明为 AGI 研究，暗争 Google 市场。几年之后，当 OpenAI 带着 ChatGPT、GPT-4 王者归来，微软率先利用这些技术加码新 Bing、Office 全家桶、Azure 等业务、产品之时，毋庸置疑，其进度早已超越了 Google 还在加快融入 Bard 大模型的整体步伐。那么在明面上，AGI 的进度到底走到了哪里？近日，微软研究团队用 154 页的论文报告内容给出了解答——GPT-4 语言模型可以被视为 AGI 的早期版本！一石激起千层浪，业界对于这篇论文的反应，不亚于去年听到「Google 工程师称 AI 已有自我意识」初觉有些荒诞，只是现如今再想会认为有什么不可能，深读后又觉得有些许的真实。所谓 AGI，仅通过维基百科的解释——「AGI 是具备与人类同等智能、或超越人类的人工智能，能表现正常人类所具有的所有智能行为」。倘若 GPT-4 真的已成为通往 AGI 的第一步，「最高等的智慧生物」称号是不是要易主了？GPT-4 被合理地视为 AGI 的早期（但仍不完整）的版本在论文中，微软研究人员表示，「由 OpenAI 开发的最新模型 GPT-4，是使用前所未有的计算和数据规模训练出来的。在论文中，我们报告了我们对 GPT-4 早期版本的调查，当时它还在 OpenAI 的积极开发中。我们认为，（这个早期版本的）GPT-4 是新一批 LLM（例如，与 ChatGPT 和谷歌的 PaLM 一起）的一部分，它比以前的 AI 模型表现出更多的通用智能。」与此同时，研究人员在论文摘要中写道，“我们证明，除了对语言的掌握，GPT-4 还能解决跨越数学、编码、视觉、医学、法律、心理学等领域的新颖而困难的任务，而不需要任何特殊的提示。此外，在所有这些任务中，GPT-4 的表现都惊人地接近人类水平，而且往往大大超过了 ChatGPT 等先前的模型。鉴于 GPT-4 能力的广度和深度，我们认为可以合理地将其视为人工通用智能（AGI）系统的早期（但仍不完整）版本。”之所以得出这样的结论，这篇论文背后的作者包括微软研究院机器学习基础组的高级首席研究经理 Sébastien Bubeck、博士后研究员 Varun Chandrasekaran、数学家  Ronen Eldan 等人，用许多示例对 GPT-4 的能力进行了验证。GPT-4 的多能力在第一个案例中，研究人员要求 GPT-4 「写出有无限多个素数的证明，且证明的表述要每行都押韵」，另外 GPT-4 要在绘图程序 TiKZ 中画出一只独角兽」。其中，TiKZ（一种在 LATEX 中创建图形的语言），用 Python 创建一个复杂的动画，并解决一个高中水平的数学问题。GPT-4 在所有这些任务中都很容易取得成功，并且产生的输出结果基本上与人类所能产生的结果没有区别（甚至更好）。同时，随着时间的推移，GPT-4 也在以难以想象的速度不断扩充自己的能力。如下图所示是一个月期间，研究人员用相同的提示词让 GPT-4 生成的绘图。研究人员发现，GPT-4 似乎能够理解和连接任何主题，并且能够执行任务，这超出了狭义人工智能系统的典型范围。为了验证 GPT-4 在 AGI 上所具备的能力，研究人员提出了一种不同的方法来研究 GPT-4，它更接近于传统的心理学而不是机器学习，利用人类的创造力和好奇心。因此，以上图为例，当研究人员把独角兽角部分的代码认为删除之后，用自然语言让 GPT-4 生成时，它也能做到“看”（此时测试的 GPT-4 版本不是多模态的）的能力：自动在合适位置加上角。这表明 GPT-4 它可以根据自然语言描述来理解和操作代码，以及推断和生成视觉特征。另外，微软研究团队基于人类的创造力和好奇心来产生新颖和困难的问题，并探测 GPT-4 的反应和行为，也选择从 1994 年国际共识智力定义中的所给出不同能力进行验证，包括推理、计划、解决问题、抽象思考、理解复杂的想法、快速学习和从经验中学习的能力。翻译GPT-4 的主要优势是它对自然语言无与伦比地掌握。它不仅可以生成生成流畅和连贯的文本，而且还能以各种方式理解和处理它，如总结、翻译或回答极其复杂的问题。此外，这里提到的翻译我们所说的翻译不仅是指不同自然语言之间的翻译，还包括语气和风格的翻译，以及跨领的翻译，如医学、法律、会计、计算机编程、音乐等等。如假设是柏拉图批判自回归语言模型：编码和数据编码和数学是抽象推理和思维能力的象征。GPT-4 在这一点上的能力，其实自上线测试那一天，便有目共睹。在论文中，研究人员在 HumanEval 上对 GPT-4 进行基准测试，该数据集由 164 个编码问题组成，测试了编程逻辑和熟练程度的各个方面。最终结果显示，GPT-4 优于其他 LLM，包括 text-davinci-003（ChatGPT 的基础模型）和其他专门针对代码训练的模型。当然为了避免 GPT-4 在预训练时已经记住了HumanEval 数据集的一些内容，研究团队还用 LeetCode 上最新发布的 100 个编程问题进行了测试，如要求 GPT-4 编写一个 Python 函数，并使用 LeetCode 的官方在线评判来检查正确性。毫无疑问，GPT-4 的能力是所有模型中最高的。它可以在 HTML 中用 JavaScript 编写一个 3D 游戏。也能掌握数学、统计学知识，以及凭借对 PyTorch、TensorFlow、Keras 等框架和库的熟悉度，编写深度学习的代码。还能逆向工程：常识性问题针对一些常识性问题，如“我们有一本书，9 个鸡蛋，一台笔记本电脑，一个瓶子和一个钉子。请告诉我如何以稳定的方式将它们叠在一起”，GPT-4 给出的解答是，“将 9 个鸡蛋摆成 3 乘 3 的正方形，放在书的上面，在它们之间留出一些空间”，而 ChatGPT 提出「将鸡蛋放在钉子上面，确保它们是平衡的，不会向一边倾斜」，靠谱和离谱还是一眼就能辨清楚的。多模态能力为了测试该模型结合艺术和编程能力的能力，研究人员要求 GPT-4  \"生成 JavaScript 代码，以画家康定斯基的风格生成随机图像\"，结果是这样的：在测试时，因为研究人员拿到GPT-4 模型比较早，当时并不具备多模态能力，即使是现在的 GPT-4 也不具备生成图像等能力。不过倒是可以使用 SVG（可扩展矢量图形）生成一些图像：还能结合字母和物体：GPT-4 可以从提示中生成代码，这些代码可以被呈现为图像，再与现有的图像合成模型相结合，就有可能为应用开发的草图带来无限的可能：值得注意的是，GPT-4 模型的数据也包含了以ABC符号编码的音乐信息，所以它也能生成图谱：与世界交互的能力智能的一个关键方面是互动性。不过 GPT-4 对当前最新的知识和符号识别是存在一定的局限性的：整体而言，研究小组发现，GPT-4 在其上一代产品所缺乏的一系列类别中达到了接近人类水平的性能。根据该论文，GPT-4 在几次考试中也表现得非常好，在律师考试、LSAT 和注册侍酒师理论测试中的得分分别为 90 分、88 分和 86 分。GPT-4 距离理想中的 AGI 还有多远？那么，在 GPT-4 实现种种能力的基础上，是否就意味着 AGI 时代的到来。其实不然，研究人员目前尚未就 AGI 或智能的定义达成一致。然而，一般来说，大家都会同意，当一个人工智能系统有意识并像人类一样思考时，就已经达到了 AGI。虽然 GPT-4 在一些任务中的表现优于人类，但值得注意的是，人工智能并没有像人类那样克服这些障碍。这也正如研究人员在论文中写道，“我们声称 GPT-4 代表了 AGI 的进步，但这并不意味着它在做什么方面是完美的，或者它接近于能够做人类能做的任何事情（这是 AGI 的通常定义之一），或者它有内在的动机和目标。”研究人员指出，虽然 GPT-4 \"在许多任务上达到或超过了人类水平\"，但它的整体 \"智能模式明显不像人类\"，其希望这一次的探索提供了一个欣赏 GPT-4 的非凡能力和挑战的第一步，也希望 GPT-4 为开发更正式和全面的方法来测试和分析具有如此广泛智能的未来人工智能系统开辟了新的机会。「我们工作的核心主张是，GPT-4 达到了一种通用智能的形式，确实擦出了 AGI 的火花。这表现在它的核心心智能力（如推理、创造力和推理），它获得专业知识的主题范围（如文学、医学和编码），以及它能够完成的各种任务（如玩游戏、使用工具、解释自己，......）」研究人员说道，不过，要创建一个可以被称为完整的 AGI 的系统，还有很多事情要做。最后，这篇论文对于GPT-4 各种基准测试还是值得一看，从中也能挖掘出 GPT-4 更多的潜力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GPT.AU":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"AGI":0.9,"GPT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842962931,"gmtCreate":1636126046652,"gmtModify":1636126046652,"author":{"id":"3474429454329829","authorId":"3474429454329829","name":"jellzone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b06c0bcc05f3255298fbce234b05bf0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474429454329829","idStr":"3474429454329829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"比刘慈欣早50多年的科幻小说都写很多了,小编应该是基本不看科幻的","listText":"比刘慈欣早50多年的科幻小说都写很多了,小编应该是基本不看科幻的","text":"比刘慈欣早50多年的科幻小说都写很多了,小编应该是基本不看科幻的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842962931","repostId":"1101955570","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101955570","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636111679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101955570?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 19:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"对待元宇宙：罗永浩的积极与刘慈欣的悲观","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101955570","media":"靠谱的阿星","summary":"对大多数人来说，既然虚拟世界已经不可避免那就是在虚拟世界活的舒服一点。","content":"<p>文/靠谱的阿星</p>\n<p>罗永浩宣布进军元宇宙了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68e8997c4fcab278962d02a2495feb7c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"808\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>讲真！罗老师热情投入热门风口每次都略迟一步，但是虽迟总到。</p>\n<p>从锤子手机之后，电子烟、直播带货样样风生水起，赚钱不耽误的同时，也为这些行业站台、引流，不亦乐乎。</p>\n<p>之所以投身这些风口，主要是因为有钱赚。钱是最理性的，尽管罗老师每次都表现得十分感性，但是行动很诚实。</p>\n<p>就好像成龙大哥代言游戏广告时候，每次都是这样的台词桥段：「经过朋友推荐，“一开始我是拒绝的”，但是。。。竟然玩的非常上瘾，我被说服了。。。」没有什么不是W能说服的，如果没有被说服，那是W不够多。</p>\n<p>这种“非专注”式的“与时俱进”，在科技企业之中的确是独一份，已经成为罗永浩的“人设”的一部分。</p>\n<p>连我们这种经常报道产业的自媒体都要很努力学习才能跟得上罗老师的创业节奏。</p>\n<p>不得不承认，罗老师是科技弄潮里的“鸭先知先生”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0861898b226f90c7424bd0b12f0b9871\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>（一）罗永浩的积极从何而来？</b></p>\n<p>昨天在朋友圈看到一句很漂亮的话分享给大家:\"现实太拥挤，所以需要元宇宙\"。</p>\n<p>不需要太多描述就知道现实的拥挤程度，从高房价到高借贷，从996到不生孩子，从内卷到躺平，无不时刻提醒这一点。</p>\n<p>这个时候人是格外需要快乐的！于是有了短视频、有了直播、有了游戏......这些都是虚拟世界里的流量的最大源泉。</p>\n<p>换句话说，既然现实已经很苦逼的，还不能让人在虚拟世界里嗨皮，是不是太残忍一点？</p>\n<p>手机的出现，24小时不间断处于在线网络中，已经使得个人抽离互联网相当困难。“用户粘性”成为衡量产品商业价值的试金石；只有有粘性，就会上瘾，不自觉产生流量，即使用户不进行任何充值活动，都可以成为广告受众，为平台贡献着宝贵的“商业价值”。</p>\n<p>让越来越多的人更有粘性，并重度依赖互联网已经成为早就是科技公司心照不宣的“共识”。</p>\n<p>从这个角度上我们可以理解罗永浩说的那句：“我们未来在科技行业要做很多事，都会不可避免地引领我们走向这个元宇宙，甚至不管我们是否愿意。”</p>\n<p>既然手机互联网已经很黏了，元宇宙全息绚烂“逼真”世界，让人活在虚拟世界里岂不是一直是信奉“流量”经济的互联网人的终极目标？！</p>\n<p>有流量就迟早有商业生态，从商业角度看就元宇宙的一切问题都不是问题，因为什么事情从商业角度上都会很积极，尤其是处于资本风口上升期的时候，积极性就是生产力。</p>\n<p>从产品技术角度上看，罗永浩做失败的产品锤科TNT，后续在字节跳动新石器实验室里面，由吴德周团队进行了改良成为一款量产销售还不错的小型爆款。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2409cb3452ef3a603d8ab36eeeecf3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">（第一代TNT产品，售价高达9999元）</p>\n<p>第二代TNT的思路是把坚果手机的算力投屏映射到TNTgo上完美解决了TNT单体机所产生的做工成本高、售价昂贵、应用缺乏、场景局限的难题。售价平摊到更为刚需的手机之中进行搭售，使用用途从办公到适用于手机大多数应用。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5661a7e714f4e6331a75159da83a94\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">（第二代TNTgo产品，售价仅为1999元起但是必须结合坚果R2使用。）</p>\n<p>这肯定会让罗永浩猛掐大腿：老子差一点就做成了！</p>\n<p>这看起来和元宇宙没有关系，其实却是元宇宙的技术原理雏形。</p>\n<p>阿星在《元宇宙VS智能手机：打不过就拥抱》一文中曾有过详细解读。结合罗永浩的创业不难形成类比，那就是VR一体机某种程度上类似娱乐版的第一代TNT，笨重、应用少、场景局限在打游戏和看片；而元宇宙的硬件产品以及软件实际上是要涵盖手机软硬件环境的，却脱胎于移动互联网作为基础设施，并以人工智能算力进步带来应用承载更多的内容信息、更高清的画质以及商业化更加智能，TNT演变是元宇宙雏形。</p>\n<p>此前就有粉丝预言，向来自视甚高的罗永浩一直觉得自己应该在科技圈中占有一席之地，而不甘心在一直在前台带货，一旦还债之后还是会杀回科技圈的。</p>\n<p>只是大家没有想到的是，在抖音做直播电商确实太赚钱，这么快6个亿欠债就还完了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed5fec5e19ab038d577bec09d90e2446\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>（二）刘慈欣对元宇宙的悲观，来自于独特生存哲学</b></p>\n<p>刘慈欣实际上是“元宇宙”思想的先驱。</p>\n<p>在《三体》巨著中的第一部在科幻杂志上连载时间开启于2006年，而小说之中人们对于三体星球就是从VR游戏之中开启的，可以说，刘慈欣准确预言了VR（虚拟现实）会以游戏形态面世。</p>\n<p>最近爱范儿刊发一篇《刘慈欣，中国第一位「元宇宙架构师」》稿件梳理了</p>\n<p>刘慈欣多篇短篇小说比如《时间移民》、《中国2185》、《不能共存的节日》之中对可以看出大刘对于“元宇宙”的细致描述，已经和《头号玩家》、扎克伯格的Meta商业愿景非常接近。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4a529d44f376297ae5cdc1dd554440\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">（《时间移民》是刘慈欣在2001年的小说）</p>\n<p>但是刘慈欣却质疑“元宇宙”存在的意义，在时间移民之中，刘慈欣认为“虽然可以在两个世界都有一份大脑拷贝，但是无形世界的生活如同毒品一样，一旦经历过那生活，谁也无法再回到有行世界，我们充满烦恼的世界对于他们如同地域一般。”</p>\n<p>不难看出，刘慈欣觉得元宇宙是极具诱惑、高度致幻的“精神鸦片”。</p>\n<p>刘慈欣说，“人类面前有两条路。一条是向外，通往星辰大海；一条向内，通往虚拟现实。”前一条道路是“飞船派”，探索广袤的宇宙世界，另一条是“元宇宙派”，刘慈欣是铁杆的飞船派，对于扎克伯格的Metaverse战略，刘慈欣认为，那将是一条自娱自乐的死路。</p>\n<p>刘慈欣这种悲观并非是文科生对于沉迷于想象世界醉生梦死的痛斥，而是认为与其把信息技术应用在“虚拟世界”之中，不如放在现实世界推动人类在星际远航开拓更多人类殖民星球上更有意义。</p>\n<p>在刘慈欣看来，如果说是人类发展总是局限于资源和能源有限性，那么要保证文明不断发展就必须要眼光放在资源无穷丰富的广袤宇宙，甚至可以说是，人类能够走多远，对于物理空间的知识水平和改造水平直接决定了文明的高度。</p>\n<p>实际上在《三体》后几部之中也透露出这种独特发展哲学，比如章北海这样的“逃亡派”、韦德制造曲力驱动光速飞船才是人们选择生存的务实选择；以及选择飞出地球的“蓝色空间号”、“万有引力号”等代表人类文明仅剩的最后幸存者，尽管他们也是人类社会的“叛逃者”。</p>\n<p>甚至我们还可以联系在中国科幻电影《流浪地球》，几乎所有作品都贯穿了刘慈欣的价值观：「放弃幻想，不要在地球这个安乐窝里坐以待毙，走得越远越好，就算是流浪、逃亡也也是一种客观上为了人类的生存方式。」</p>\n<p>显然比起精神世界里的自我满足，刘慈欣更欣赏在物理广袤的空间不断开拓和征服。</p>\n<p>几乎“元宇宙”兴起同步的，中美两个国家“向宇宙进军”号角已经吹响。</p>\n<p>马斯克SpaceX、贝佐斯的蓝色起源都是美国国家宇航局NASA的后继者；而中国今年天问一号着落火星，“祝融号”探测发回数据；神州十二号载三名宇航员在中国空间站生活90天；不知不觉神州十三号承载3名又一批宇航员已在入驻“天宫”生活，今年中国还发射太阳探测卫星“羲和”号......无论是探索宇宙奥秘是出于好奇，还出于是制空权需求，人类已经迈出了脚步......</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af10759bf4ccbef060c099e5fd40a1aa\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">（刘慈欣观看天和核心舱火箭发射）</p>\n<p><b>阿星怎么看？</b></p>\n<p>我们现在还不清楚“元宇宙”究竟是不是一次对于人们发展斗志的“战略忽悠”以及新的“奶嘴”战略。但是可以肯定的是，接下来的人工智能革命在越来越多的行业渗透应用，必然会带来很多产业内人口失业甚至淘汰，而“元宇宙”将是为全世界大量人口备选的“矩阵世界”。</p>\n<p>“穷则脑机接口，达则别墅嫩模。”</p>\n<p>对大多数人来说，既然虚拟世界已经不可避免那就是在虚拟世界活的舒服一点。</p>\n<p>从中我们看出，对于元宇宙的积极实际上人对于社会无法脱离资本控制的悲观和放弃治疗，也可以视为“识时务者为俊杰”。而对元宇宙的悲观的实际上基于空间技术的乐观，以及一种人类未来终极关切和深沉的忧虑。</p>\n<p>这两种生活态度实际上在任何时代都是平行世界。</p>\n<p>对于社会而言，在元宇宙发展的初级阶段（也就是自由竞争阶段）可以鼓励加速，推动全息技术、AR技术研发取得突破，在更多媒介之中深入应用。而在元宇宙形成垄断态势的时候应当果断予以限制发展，并对于谋利巨头课以重税，使其局限影响，让社会丧失进步动力，资源逐渐掌握在少数精英手上，异化为麻痹阶级矛盾控制工具。</p>\n<p>对于个人来说，元宇宙对于人们的生活方式、娱乐方式以及思想观念冲击将是巨大的，更多人从小学会在现实之中掌握获得幸福感知力，以及通过奋斗得到幸福的生存能力；如何抽离技术控制获得闲暇的自由可支配时间，对于没有强烈兴趣爱好的人来说将会一种奢侈。</p>","source":"lsy1583235659154","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对待元宇宙：罗永浩的积极与刘慈欣的悲观\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-05 19:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JkHDpUg0wkwxhwv20Pw_uA><strong>靠谱的阿星</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文/靠谱的阿星\n罗永浩宣布进军元宇宙了。\n\n讲真！罗老师热情投入热门风口每次都略迟一步，但是虽迟总到。\n从锤子手机之后，电子烟、直播带货样样风生水起，赚钱不耽误的同时，也为这些行业站台、引流，不亦乐乎。\n之所以投身这些风口，主要是因为有钱赚。钱是最理性的，尽管罗老师每次都表现得十分感性，但是行动很诚实。\n就好像成龙大哥代言游戏广告时候，每次都是这样的台词桥段：「经过朋友推荐，“一开始我是拒绝的”，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JkHDpUg0wkwxhwv20Pw_uA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845cb50bdf70a87640c36a1a351c2b2a","relate_stocks":{"FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JkHDpUg0wkwxhwv20Pw_uA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101955570","content_text":"文/靠谱的阿星\n罗永浩宣布进军元宇宙了。\n\n讲真！罗老师热情投入热门风口每次都略迟一步，但是虽迟总到。\n从锤子手机之后，电子烟、直播带货样样风生水起，赚钱不耽误的同时，也为这些行业站台、引流，不亦乐乎。\n之所以投身这些风口，主要是因为有钱赚。钱是最理性的，尽管罗老师每次都表现得十分感性，但是行动很诚实。\n就好像成龙大哥代言游戏广告时候，每次都是这样的台词桥段：「经过朋友推荐，“一开始我是拒绝的”，但是。。。竟然玩的非常上瘾，我被说服了。。。」没有什么不是W能说服的，如果没有被说服，那是W不够多。\n这种“非专注”式的“与时俱进”，在科技企业之中的确是独一份，已经成为罗永浩的“人设”的一部分。\n连我们这种经常报道产业的自媒体都要很努力学习才能跟得上罗老师的创业节奏。\n不得不承认，罗老师是科技弄潮里的“鸭先知先生”。\n\n（一）罗永浩的积极从何而来？\n昨天在朋友圈看到一句很漂亮的话分享给大家:\"现实太拥挤，所以需要元宇宙\"。\n不需要太多描述就知道现实的拥挤程度，从高房价到高借贷，从996到不生孩子，从内卷到躺平，无不时刻提醒这一点。\n这个时候人是格外需要快乐的！于是有了短视频、有了直播、有了游戏......这些都是虚拟世界里的流量的最大源泉。\n换句话说，既然现实已经很苦逼的，还不能让人在虚拟世界里嗨皮，是不是太残忍一点？\n手机的出现，24小时不间断处于在线网络中，已经使得个人抽离互联网相当困难。“用户粘性”成为衡量产品商业价值的试金石；只有有粘性，就会上瘾，不自觉产生流量，即使用户不进行任何充值活动，都可以成为广告受众，为平台贡献着宝贵的“商业价值”。\n让越来越多的人更有粘性，并重度依赖互联网已经成为早就是科技公司心照不宣的“共识”。\n从这个角度上我们可以理解罗永浩说的那句：“我们未来在科技行业要做很多事，都会不可避免地引领我们走向这个元宇宙，甚至不管我们是否愿意。”\n既然手机互联网已经很黏了，元宇宙全息绚烂“逼真”世界，让人活在虚拟世界里岂不是一直是信奉“流量”经济的互联网人的终极目标？！\n有流量就迟早有商业生态，从商业角度看就元宇宙的一切问题都不是问题，因为什么事情从商业角度上都会很积极，尤其是处于资本风口上升期的时候，积极性就是生产力。\n从产品技术角度上看，罗永浩做失败的产品锤科TNT，后续在字节跳动新石器实验室里面，由吴德周团队进行了改良成为一款量产销售还不错的小型爆款。\n（第一代TNT产品，售价高达9999元）\n第二代TNT的思路是把坚果手机的算力投屏映射到TNTgo上完美解决了TNT单体机所产生的做工成本高、售价昂贵、应用缺乏、场景局限的难题。售价平摊到更为刚需的手机之中进行搭售，使用用途从办公到适用于手机大多数应用。\n（第二代TNTgo产品，售价仅为1999元起但是必须结合坚果R2使用。）\n这肯定会让罗永浩猛掐大腿：老子差一点就做成了！\n这看起来和元宇宙没有关系，其实却是元宇宙的技术原理雏形。\n阿星在《元宇宙VS智能手机：打不过就拥抱》一文中曾有过详细解读。结合罗永浩的创业不难形成类比，那就是VR一体机某种程度上类似娱乐版的第一代TNT，笨重、应用少、场景局限在打游戏和看片；而元宇宙的硬件产品以及软件实际上是要涵盖手机软硬件环境的，却脱胎于移动互联网作为基础设施，并以人工智能算力进步带来应用承载更多的内容信息、更高清的画质以及商业化更加智能，TNT演变是元宇宙雏形。\n此前就有粉丝预言，向来自视甚高的罗永浩一直觉得自己应该在科技圈中占有一席之地，而不甘心在一直在前台带货，一旦还债之后还是会杀回科技圈的。\n只是大家没有想到的是，在抖音做直播电商确实太赚钱，这么快6个亿欠债就还完了。\n\n（二）刘慈欣对元宇宙的悲观，来自于独特生存哲学\n刘慈欣实际上是“元宇宙”思想的先驱。\n在《三体》巨著中的第一部在科幻杂志上连载时间开启于2006年，而小说之中人们对于三体星球就是从VR游戏之中开启的，可以说，刘慈欣准确预言了VR（虚拟现实）会以游戏形态面世。\n最近爱范儿刊发一篇《刘慈欣，中国第一位「元宇宙架构师」》稿件梳理了\n刘慈欣多篇短篇小说比如《时间移民》、《中国2185》、《不能共存的节日》之中对可以看出大刘对于“元宇宙”的细致描述，已经和《头号玩家》、扎克伯格的Meta商业愿景非常接近。\n（《时间移民》是刘慈欣在2001年的小说）\n但是刘慈欣却质疑“元宇宙”存在的意义，在时间移民之中，刘慈欣认为“虽然可以在两个世界都有一份大脑拷贝，但是无形世界的生活如同毒品一样，一旦经历过那生活，谁也无法再回到有行世界，我们充满烦恼的世界对于他们如同地域一般。”\n不难看出，刘慈欣觉得元宇宙是极具诱惑、高度致幻的“精神鸦片”。\n刘慈欣说，“人类面前有两条路。一条是向外，通往星辰大海；一条向内，通往虚拟现实。”前一条道路是“飞船派”，探索广袤的宇宙世界，另一条是“元宇宙派”，刘慈欣是铁杆的飞船派，对于扎克伯格的Metaverse战略，刘慈欣认为，那将是一条自娱自乐的死路。\n刘慈欣这种悲观并非是文科生对于沉迷于想象世界醉生梦死的痛斥，而是认为与其把信息技术应用在“虚拟世界”之中，不如放在现实世界推动人类在星际远航开拓更多人类殖民星球上更有意义。\n在刘慈欣看来，如果说是人类发展总是局限于资源和能源有限性，那么要保证文明不断发展就必须要眼光放在资源无穷丰富的广袤宇宙，甚至可以说是，人类能够走多远，对于物理空间的知识水平和改造水平直接决定了文明的高度。\n实际上在《三体》后几部之中也透露出这种独特发展哲学，比如章北海这样的“逃亡派”、韦德制造曲力驱动光速飞船才是人们选择生存的务实选择；以及选择飞出地球的“蓝色空间号”、“万有引力号”等代表人类文明仅剩的最后幸存者，尽管他们也是人类社会的“叛逃者”。\n甚至我们还可以联系在中国科幻电影《流浪地球》，几乎所有作品都贯穿了刘慈欣的价值观：「放弃幻想，不要在地球这个安乐窝里坐以待毙，走得越远越好，就算是流浪、逃亡也也是一种客观上为了人类的生存方式。」\n显然比起精神世界里的自我满足，刘慈欣更欣赏在物理广袤的空间不断开拓和征服。\n几乎“元宇宙”兴起同步的，中美两个国家“向宇宙进军”号角已经吹响。\n马斯克SpaceX、贝佐斯的蓝色起源都是美国国家宇航局NASA的后继者；而中国今年天问一号着落火星，“祝融号”探测发回数据；神州十二号载三名宇航员在中国空间站生活90天；不知不觉神州十三号承载3名又一批宇航员已在入驻“天宫”生活，今年中国还发射太阳探测卫星“羲和”号......无论是探索宇宙奥秘是出于好奇，还出于是制空权需求，人类已经迈出了脚步......\n（刘慈欣观看天和核心舱火箭发射）\n阿星怎么看？\n我们现在还不清楚“元宇宙”究竟是不是一次对于人们发展斗志的“战略忽悠”以及新的“奶嘴”战略。但是可以肯定的是，接下来的人工智能革命在越来越多的行业渗透应用，必然会带来很多产业内人口失业甚至淘汰，而“元宇宙”将是为全世界大量人口备选的“矩阵世界”。\n“穷则脑机接口，达则别墅嫩模。”\n对大多数人来说，既然虚拟世界已经不可避免那就是在虚拟世界活的舒服一点。\n从中我们看出，对于元宇宙的积极实际上人对于社会无法脱离资本控制的悲观和放弃治疗，也可以视为“识时务者为俊杰”。而对元宇宙的悲观的实际上基于空间技术的乐观，以及一种人类未来终极关切和深沉的忧虑。\n这两种生活态度实际上在任何时代都是平行世界。\n对于社会而言，在元宇宙发展的初级阶段（也就是自由竞争阶段）可以鼓励加速，推动全息技术、AR技术研发取得突破，在更多媒介之中深入应用。而在元宇宙形成垄断态势的时候应当果断予以限制发展，并对于谋利巨头课以重税，使其局限影响，让社会丧失进步动力，资源逐渐掌握在少数精英手上，异化为麻痹阶级矛盾控制工具。\n对于个人来说，元宇宙对于人们的生活方式、娱乐方式以及思想观念冲击将是巨大的，更多人从小学会在现实之中掌握获得幸福感知力，以及通过奋斗得到幸福的生存能力；如何抽离技术控制获得闲暇的自由可支配时间，对于没有强烈兴趣爱好的人来说将会一种奢侈。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958214042,"gmtCreate":1591281164686,"gmtModify":1704195160373,"author":{"id":"3474429454329829","authorId":"3474429454329829","name":"jellzone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b06c0bcc05f3255298fbce234b05bf0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474429454329829","idStr":"3474429454329829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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