东哥也是韭菜的个人主页 - 老虎社区

东哥也是韭菜

东哥也是韭菜

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东哥也是韭菜

2020-06-09

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$嫩模变成了公园大妈！亏得不成样子😂 兄弟们什么价位入的？

东哥也是韭菜

2020-11-27

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$自杀未遂

东哥也是韭菜

2020-10-03

$Yalla Group(YALA)$请以后不要自己加标签！小腾讯？感觉在侮辱马化腾。

东哥也是韭菜

2021-04-15

$Venus Acquisition Corp(VENAR)$什么公司[开心]

东哥也是韭菜

2021-07-09

收网行动！

抱歉，原内容已删除

东哥也是韭菜

2020-09-12

$西方石油(OXY)$😄王总

东哥也是韭菜

2021-09-29

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$英语大佬？？？外国人也开始买恐慌了？

东哥也是韭菜

2021-12-30

$触宝(CTK)$我已经做空了，你拉暴我吧。二成仓做空

东哥也是韭菜

2021-06-03

$AMC院线(AMC)$空军一号来了！！！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。\n不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。\n威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”\n这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。\n美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”\n英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。\n在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。\n低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。\n反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。\n经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。\n到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391313845,"gmtCreate":1606486267887,"gmtModify":1703843327994,"author":{"id":"3475834545224714","authorId":"3475834545224714","name":"东哥也是韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551706772c19d067b8d5e738db92efae","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3475834545224714","idStr":"3475834545224714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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