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多多哟

多多哟

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03-04 01:31

$QQQ 20260303 593.0 CALL$

03-04 01:31

$QQQ 20260303 594.0 PUT$

03-04 01:30

$QQQ 20260303 599.0 CALL$

2025-11-07

$美团-W(03690)$ 财报会很难看，88块钱打底，我说的

2023-08-25

$美团-W(03690)$ 拖后腿是真的当仁不让啊[喷血]

2022-09-08

$美团-W(03690)$重磅内幕，美团准备出海中！

2024-10-30

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ $SMCI 20241101 50.5 CALL$ 这货是明天发财报？

2023-01-06

$尚乘数科(HKD)$ 有多少人在哭泣

2023-03-21

$第一共和银行(FRC)$ 高空跳台表现开始了[惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓]

2023-04-26

$第一共和银行(FRC)$ 见证8块，满仓干

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20260303 599.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2efba1cc23ee53f6f1ce0c02401abb","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/538780326285608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":536284565668720,"gmtCreate":1771949734513,"gmtModify":1771949737642,"author":{"id":"3480740812980830","authorId":"3480740812980830","name":"多多哟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd05de0483d1fef4c807aa7f7f2e709","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480740812980830","authorIdStr":"3480740812980830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20260224 605.0 CALL\">$QQQ 20260224 605.0 CALL$</a> 挂4.19试试","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20260224 605.0 CALL\">$QQQ 20260224 605.0 CALL$</a> 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挂4.19试试","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a3ced77691062b313922d14ef5b674","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536284565668720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":531233845059792,"gmtCreate":1770716733372,"gmtModify":1770716735977,"author":{"id":"3480740812980830","authorId":"3480740812980830","name":"多多哟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd05de0483d1fef4c807aa7f7f2e709","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480740812980830","authorIdStr":"3480740812980830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"起飞吧","listText":"起飞吧","text":"起飞吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/531233845059792","repostId":"1151296161","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151296161","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1770714575,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151296161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-10 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a> 公告，2025年第四季度营业总收入178.13亿元，同比增长11.9%；净利润12.23亿元，同比增长23.2%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb458f2c3eed8796a1e2ecf37309073","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151296161","content_text":"中芯国际 公告，2025年第四季度营业总收入178.13亿元，同比增长11.9%；净利润12.23亿元，同比增长23.2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":2,"00981":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504025124204976,"gmtCreate":1764063054511,"gmtModify":1764063057101,"author":{"id":"3480740812980830","authorId":"3480740812980830","name":"多多哟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd05de0483d1fef4c807aa7f7f2e709","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480740812980830","authorIdStr":"3480740812980830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"真挺搞笑的，谁家不是全面竞争？哪怕一个产品突围，就足以有更多的商业可能性","listText":"真挺搞笑的，谁家不是全面竞争？哪怕一个产品突围，就足以有更多的商业可能性","text":"真挺搞笑的，谁家不是全面竞争？哪怕一个产品突围，就足以有更多的商业可能性","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504025124204976","repostId":"2586255444","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2586255444","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764061740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586255444?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 17:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里正陷入全面竞争的陷阱","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586255444","media":"Ofweek光电信息网","summary":"但这背后，实际上是今年以来阿里多个领域面临高度竞争，甚至对于强大的阿里，只能采取跟随战略来保证自身不掉队。阿里的压力也很大，多个领域同时开战。▌1、全面竞争的陷阱大家熟悉了曾经的阿里四面作战、到处扩张，雄厚的资金储备以及具备强劲盈利能力的电商业务为阿里提供了充足的试错空间。电商和AI，阿里都面临着强敌的竞争，阿里既要守住电商的大本营，又要和新贵们争夺AI高地。阿里巴巴第二季度的业绩并不好。","content":"<html><body><article><p>一片掌声之下，阿里开始变得不对劲。</p><p>最近半年阿里频频公布“战绩”，比如像前两天公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩，一个是首周下载突破千万，一个是上线6天下载突破200万。</p><p>更早之前，是阿里主打的点评类产品高德扫街榜上线23天突破4亿用户，淘宝闪购日订单量突破1亿。</p><p>这也是阿里今年的两个战略核心方向：电商+AI。一个是以闪购为代表的电商业务线找增量，一个是以AI为代表的技术线找突破。</p><p>阿里新业务看上去形势一片大好。</p><p>但是业界也有人士评论阿里的高调宣传之下，“宣传是很加分，猛一看，还以为阿里已经打完仗赢了呢。”</p><p>但这背后，实际上是今年以来阿里多个领域面临高度竞争，甚至对于强大的阿里，只能采取跟随战略来保证自身不掉队。</p><p>阿里的压力也很大，多个领域同时开战。</p><p>说实话，要不是这家公司是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，如此多业务同时开展，换做任何一家其他公司身上，都会被扣上盲目扩张、战略失焦、多元化陷阱等“帽子”。</p><p><strong>▌1、全面竞争的陷阱</strong></p><p>大家熟悉了曾经的阿里四面作战、到处扩张，雄厚的资金储备以及具备强劲盈利能力的电商业务为阿里提供了充足的试错空间。</p><p>一家在移动互联网时代买下半个互联网的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>，一家“富可敌国“、被称作”史上从来没出现过的庞然大物”的阿里巴巴。</p><p>这是曾经阿里的“荣誉称号”，但这并不代表阿里巴巴当下的处境以及应对策略是最优的，以及可被理解的。</p><p>阿里早已经不是那个“一超多强”下的阿里了。</p><p>他的对手诸如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>、字节，早已经不是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>。当年资金、资源雄厚的阿里巴巴用钱都砸不死的创业公司，凭什么现在就能打赢呢？</p><p>另外，阿里巴巴从前也没有过在多个战场、多线作战的经验。</p><p>阿里巴巴曾经在电商、移动互联网、支付、云服务等多个业务场景和国内的巨头掰手腕，但是不难发现阿里都是凭借在上一个阶段的优势，拿下下一个阶段的胜利。</p><p>比如从电商到支付，从移动互联网到云服务，这些都是基于过往的业务优势。</p><p>正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>从QQ到微信，从移动互联网入口到整个内容生态，双方结果也是并没有在对方的领域里讨到好处。</p><p>现在的竞争状态完全不同。电商和AI，阿里都面临着强敌的竞争，阿里既要守住电商的大本营，又要和新贵们争夺AI高地。</p><p>AI大模型领域，阿里是开源强，并非是C端强。</p><p>千问的改版和Gemini 3的发布就差了一天，但是口碑却“天差地别”。</p><p>同样是铺天盖地的宣传和报道，但Gemini 3是自来水。在这一天，很多尝试过Gemini 3的都感叹，大模型的竞争要结束了。</p><p>相比之下，千问还在理不清定位和名字的阶段。从千问的对外宣传来看，还在基础的作图、识图、对话这些基本的功能上。</p><p>这么说话可能有点重。</p><p>但是，千问不是一个新推出的应用啊。</p><p>2023年阿里就推出了通义千问大模型，到现在2年半了阿里还在改通义千问的名字，说实话属于依然没想清楚的阶段。</p><p>相信很多人之前都听到一种说法，阿里的大模型全球第一，李飞飞都是用的通义做训练。</p><p>其实这和千问不是一个层面的问题。阿里大模型是开源第一，相比于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>的llama衍生模型更多。</p><p>举个例子，这就好比阿里云市场份额第一，但是阿里的APP依然弹窗一堆，体验非常差。</p><p>阿里的开源大模型就好比阿里云，是基础设施、是行业第一，但是C端的大模型就像是阿里的APP，这两个没有必然联系。</p><p><strong>▌2、阿里还是“阿Q”？</strong></p><p>最近阿里公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩，一个是首周下载突破千万，一个是上线6天下载突破200万。</p><p>铺天盖地的宣传，不禁想起了一个月前的高德扫街榜。</p><p>同样配方。</p><p>高德扫街榜推出前几日，互联网上渲染出阿里保密3个月的神秘项目，并且高德扫街榜被宣传为阿里对标<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>点评的核心产品。</p><p>在不久后的国庆节假期，阿里对高德扫肩棒进行了高密度的宣传和推广。</p><p>尤其是在假期之后，阿里对高德的成果的定义是达到了4亿的日活。</p><p>这种通过小道消息放料预热、产品发出后正面宣传的结合，是阿里多年来手到擒来的拿手好戏，当年最著名的就是阿里巴巴和苏宁的重大资本合作，通过保密→放料→预热→发布，这一路径给市场带来了充分的噱头。</p><p>千问改版前，也有消息传出阿里已抽调上百名工程师秘密办公，杭州总部园区两层办公楼被划为项目专属区域，同时研发面向全球市场的国际版千问APP，计划与ChatGPT争夺海外用户。</p><p>并且还有戏剧性的传闻，阿里的保密项目因为“食堂的粤菜窗口开始排起长龙，烧鸭饭都要卖脱销了”这一野史般的小道消息，被外界判断阿里的项目和AI有关，因为业内有个传闻，“中国AI看广东”，比如DeepSeek创始人、Qwen大语言模型负责人等AI大佬都是广东人。</p><p>并非说宣传是加分项还是减分项，但是市场越来越偏向于理工科的行事方式，也越来越倾向于直来直去、专心业务的打法，而不是这种花里胡哨的行为。</p><p>尤其是如果产品本身还不够能打的话，宣传就会在秋后算账中算作是减分项，因为你不仅混淆了市场的视听，自己也会被虚假的繁荣蒙蔽。</p><p>阿里这半年来给市场的数据也不是足够让人信服。</p><p>比如说高德扫街榜用户达到4亿这一数字，统计口径是如何的就并不是很清晰。</p><p>比如说抖音用了数年的时间，才达到了4亿的用户/日活。比如说视频号在微信的全力推广下，用了半年时间也才到2亿用户。</p><p>那么高德扫街榜的4亿用户是怎么计算的呢？</p><p>再比如说，通义千问已经上线了3年的基础上，改名为千问后首周下载突破千万，那么阿里为了达到这一数据在各个平台上投放了多少呢？这些数据综合起来看可能才会更加清晰。</p><p><strong>▌3、对账</strong></p><p>很多事情后来大家就发现不对劲了。</p><p>比如说，闪购打了几个月的补贴大战后，questmobile的数据显示淘宝的月活竟然增幅远远小于美团。</p><p>今年11月questmobile发布的秋季大数据显示，淘宝在今年9月份的月活跃用户为9.8亿，同比增长4.1%。美团的月活用户为5.2亿，同比增长7%，而大众点评的月活用户为1.59亿，同比增长28.8%，是这三者中增速最高的。</p><p>值得注意的是，这个数据是同比的数据。也就说闪购给淘宝带来的月活规模增长并没有那么明显，闪购只算是激活了淘宝的老用户，而不是拉来了新用户。</p><p>要知道，2025年自然年第二季度销售和市场费用从327亿元大幅增长到532亿元，增幅高达62.7%，多花了200多亿元，新用户就增长了4.1%，相当于每个新用户的获取成本就高达500元。</p><p>高德扫街榜在一波热潮之下，主观感受来讲，现在也较少被阿里提及到了。</p><img src=\"https://mp.ofweek.com/Upload/News/Img/member99956776/202511/25165855354109.png\"/><p>（淘宝同比增速较低，数据来自questmobile秋季大报告）</p><p>淘宝闪购的团购业务，最终的结果貌似也不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想</a>。</p><p>今年9月淘宝闪购在外卖烧钱大战之后，开始启动到店团购业务，首批复盖上海、深圳、嘉兴三地的核心商业区域，涉及茶饮、甜品、正餐、自助餐及城市特色小吃等多个餐饮品类。</p><p>但是到了两个月后，据《第一财经》YiMagazine报道，团购业务已不再是淘宝闪购的业务重心，相关业务已转移到高德。</p><p>原因是，团购业务“没有做起来，第一批试点的水花没有那么大，淘宝闪购的团购业务在最初试点那几天部分商家核销是0单。”</p><p>阿里巴巴第二季度的业绩并不好。</p><p>财报显示二季度收入2476亿元同比增长2%，若不考虑银<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300801\">泰和</a>高新零售的已处置业务的收入，同口径收入同比增长将为10%，其中，电商业务收入为1186亿元同比增长10%，主要是take rate提升带动，而非GMV。</p><p>这意味着经历了几年较低的货币化率之后，阿里电商业务可能要重新提高货币化率，而货币化率是电商生态的关键指标，简单来说，就是货币化率越低，商家压力越小。</p><p>毕竟，电商业务是阿里的核心，希望不要在若干年后行业总结阿里的失败经验时提到，“因为错误地进行多元化尝试...，为对手创造机会...”。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里正陷入全面竞争的陷阱\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-25 17:09 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125171835a7104401&s=b><strong>Ofweek光电信息网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一片掌声之下，阿里开始变得不对劲。最近半年阿里频频公布“战绩”，比如像前两天公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩，一个是首周下载突破千万，一个是上线6天下载突破200万。更早之前，是阿里主打的点评类产品高德扫街榜上线23天突破4亿用户，淘宝闪购日订单量突破1亿。这也是阿里今年的两个战略核心方向：电商+AI。一个是以闪购为代表的电商业务线找增量，一个是以AI为代表的技术线找...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125171835a7104401&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4526":"热门中概股","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","LU0918141705.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0545039389.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A2\" ACC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - 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INC","BK4565":"NFT概念","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0328353924.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT4\" (HKD) ACC","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) INC","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","BK4607":"DeepSeek概念股","LU1688375341.USD":"贝莱德中国灵活股票基金","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LU0072462343.USD":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金","BK4220":"综合零售","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU1008478684.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (HKD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0797268264.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125171835a7104401&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2586255444","content_text":"一片掌声之下，阿里开始变得不对劲。最近半年阿里频频公布“战绩”，比如像前两天公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩，一个是首周下载突破千万，一个是上线6天下载突破200万。更早之前，是阿里主打的点评类产品高德扫街榜上线23天突破4亿用户，淘宝闪购日订单量突破1亿。这也是阿里今年的两个战略核心方向：电商+AI。一个是以闪购为代表的电商业务线找增量，一个是以AI为代表的技术线找突破。阿里新业务看上去形势一片大好。但是业界也有人士评论阿里的高调宣传之下，“宣传是很加分，猛一看，还以为阿里已经打完仗赢了呢。”但这背后，实际上是今年以来阿里多个领域面临高度竞争，甚至对于强大的阿里，只能采取跟随战略来保证自身不掉队。阿里的压力也很大，多个领域同时开战。说实话，要不是这家公司是阿里巴巴，如此多业务同时开展，换做任何一家其他公司身上，都会被扣上盲目扩张、战略失焦、多元化陷阱等“帽子”。▌1、全面竞争的陷阱大家熟悉了曾经的阿里四面作战、到处扩张，雄厚的资金储备以及具备强劲盈利能力的电商业务为阿里提供了充足的试错空间。一家在移动互联网时代买下半个互联网的阿里巴巴，一家“富可敌国“、被称作”史上从来没出现过的庞然大物”的阿里巴巴。这是曾经阿里的“荣誉称号”，但这并不代表阿里巴巴当下的处境以及应对策略是最优的，以及可被理解的。阿里早已经不是那个“一超多强”下的阿里了。他的对手诸如美团、字节，早已经不是创业公司。当年资金、资源雄厚的阿里巴巴用钱都砸不死的创业公司，凭什么现在就能打赢呢？另外，阿里巴巴从前也没有过在多个战场、多线作战的经验。阿里巴巴曾经在电商、移动互联网、支付、云服务等多个业务场景和国内的巨头掰手腕，但是不难发现阿里都是凭借在上一个阶段的优势，拿下下一个阶段的胜利。比如从电商到支付，从移动互联网到云服务，这些都是基于过往的业务优势。正如腾讯从QQ到微信，从移动互联网入口到整个内容生态，双方结果也是并没有在对方的领域里讨到好处。现在的竞争状态完全不同。电商和AI，阿里都面临着强敌的竞争，阿里既要守住电商的大本营，又要和新贵们争夺AI高地。AI大模型领域，阿里是开源强，并非是C端强。千问的改版和Gemini 3的发布就差了一天，但是口碑却“天差地别”。同样是铺天盖地的宣传和报道，但Gemini 3是自来水。在这一天，很多尝试过Gemini 3的都感叹，大模型的竞争要结束了。相比之下，千问还在理不清定位和名字的阶段。从千问的对外宣传来看，还在基础的作图、识图、对话这些基本的功能上。这么说话可能有点重。但是，千问不是一个新推出的应用啊。2023年阿里就推出了通义千问大模型，到现在2年半了阿里还在改通义千问的名字，说实话属于依然没想清楚的阶段。相信很多人之前都听到一种说法，阿里的大模型全球第一，李飞飞都是用的通义做训练。其实这和千问不是一个层面的问题。阿里大模型是开源第一，相比于Meta的llama衍生模型更多。举个例子，这就好比阿里云市场份额第一，但是阿里的APP依然弹窗一堆，体验非常差。阿里的开源大模型就好比阿里云，是基础设施、是行业第一，但是C端的大模型就像是阿里的APP，这两个没有必然联系。▌2、阿里还是“阿Q”？最近阿里公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩，一个是首周下载突破千万，一个是上线6天下载突破200万。铺天盖地的宣传，不禁想起了一个月前的高德扫街榜。同样配方。高德扫街榜推出前几日，互联网上渲染出阿里保密3个月的神秘项目，并且高德扫街榜被宣传为阿里对标美团点评的核心产品。在不久后的国庆节假期，阿里对高德扫肩棒进行了高密度的宣传和推广。尤其是在假期之后，阿里对高德的成果的定义是达到了4亿的日活。这种通过小道消息放料预热、产品发出后正面宣传的结合，是阿里多年来手到擒来的拿手好戏，当年最著名的就是阿里巴巴和苏宁的重大资本合作，通过保密→放料→预热→发布，这一路径给市场带来了充分的噱头。千问改版前，也有消息传出阿里已抽调上百名工程师秘密办公，杭州总部园区两层办公楼被划为项目专属区域，同时研发面向全球市场的国际版千问APP，计划与ChatGPT争夺海外用户。并且还有戏剧性的传闻，阿里的保密项目因为“食堂的粤菜窗口开始排起长龙，烧鸭饭都要卖脱销了”这一野史般的小道消息，被外界判断阿里的项目和AI有关，因为业内有个传闻，“中国AI看广东”，比如DeepSeek创始人、Qwen大语言模型负责人等AI大佬都是广东人。并非说宣传是加分项还是减分项，但是市场越来越偏向于理工科的行事方式，也越来越倾向于直来直去、专心业务的打法，而不是这种花里胡哨的行为。尤其是如果产品本身还不够能打的话，宣传就会在秋后算账中算作是减分项，因为你不仅混淆了市场的视听，自己也会被虚假的繁荣蒙蔽。阿里这半年来给市场的数据也不是足够让人信服。比如说高德扫街榜用户达到4亿这一数字，统计口径是如何的就并不是很清晰。比如说抖音用了数年的时间，才达到了4亿的用户/日活。比如说视频号在微信的全力推广下，用了半年时间也才到2亿用户。那么高德扫街榜的4亿用户是怎么计算的呢？再比如说，通义千问已经上线了3年的基础上，改名为千问后首周下载突破千万，那么阿里为了达到这一数据在各个平台上投放了多少呢？这些数据综合起来看可能才会更加清晰。▌3、对账很多事情后来大家就发现不对劲了。比如说，闪购打了几个月的补贴大战后，questmobile的数据显示淘宝的月活竟然增幅远远小于美团。今年11月questmobile发布的秋季大数据显示，淘宝在今年9月份的月活跃用户为9.8亿，同比增长4.1%。美团的月活用户为5.2亿，同比增长7%，而大众点评的月活用户为1.59亿，同比增长28.8%，是这三者中增速最高的。值得注意的是，这个数据是同比的数据。也就说闪购给淘宝带来的月活规模增长并没有那么明显，闪购只算是激活了淘宝的老用户，而不是拉来了新用户。要知道，2025年自然年第二季度销售和市场费用从327亿元大幅增长到532亿元，增幅高达62.7%，多花了200多亿元，新用户就增长了4.1%，相当于每个新用户的获取成本就高达500元。高德扫街榜在一波热潮之下，主观感受来讲，现在也较少被阿里提及到了。（淘宝同比增速较低，数据来自questmobile秋季大报告）淘宝闪购的团购业务，最终的结果貌似也不理想。今年9月淘宝闪购在外卖烧钱大战之后，开始启动到店团购业务，首批复盖上海、深圳、嘉兴三地的核心商业区域，涉及茶饮、甜品、正餐、自助餐及城市特色小吃等多个餐饮品类。但是到了两个月后，据《第一财经》YiMagazine报道，团购业务已不再是淘宝闪购的业务重心，相关业务已转移到高德。原因是，团购业务“没有做起来，第一批试点的水花没有那么大，淘宝闪购的团购业务在最初试点那几天部分商家核销是0单。”阿里巴巴第二季度的业绩并不好。财报显示二季度收入2476亿元同比增长2%，若不考虑银泰和高新零售的已处置业务的收入，同口径收入同比增长将为10%，其中，电商业务收入为1186亿元同比增长10%，主要是take rate提升带动，而非GMV。这意味着经历了几年较低的货币化率之后，阿里电商业务可能要重新提高货币化率，而货币化率是电商生态的关键指标，简单来说，就是货币化率越低，商家压力越小。毕竟，电商业务是阿里的核心，希望不要在若干年后行业总结阿里的失败经验时提到，“因为错误地进行多元化尝试...，为对手创造机会...”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"BABA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":497516376052224,"gmtCreate":1762486478327,"gmtModify":1762486480071,"author":{"id":"3480740812980830","authorId":"3480740812980830","name":"多多哟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd05de0483d1fef4c807aa7f7f2e709","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480740812980830","authorIdStr":"3480740812980830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 财报会很难看，88块钱打底，我说的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 财报会很难看，88块钱打底，我说的","text":"$美团-W(03690)$ 财报会很难看，88块钱打底，我说的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/497516376052224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":424491357512312,"gmtCreate":1744644713157,"gmtModify":1744644714732,"author":{"id":"3480740812980830","authorId":"3480740812980830","name":"多多哟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd05de0483d1fef4c807aa7f7f2e709","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480740812980830","authorIdStr":"3480740812980830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp; 咋，要绿一个看看？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp; 咋，要绿一个看看？","text":"$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ 咋，要绿一个看看？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/424491357512312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":410915382346248,"gmtCreate":1741354511008,"gmtModify":1741354512752,"author":{"id":"3480740812980830","authorId":"3480740812980830","name":"多多哟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd05de0483d1fef4c807aa7f7f2e709","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480740812980830","authorIdStr":"3480740812980830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不及预期啊","listText":"不及预期啊","text":"不及预期啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410915382346248","repostId":"1184661613","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1184661613","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1741354219,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184661613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-03-07 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国2月非农就业人数增加15.1万人，预期增加16万人","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184661613","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"前值由增加14.3万人修正为增加12.5万人。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国2月非农就业人数增加15.1万人，预期增加16万人，前值由增加14.3万人修正为增加12.5万人。</p><p>美国劳工统计局：12月份非农新增就业人数从30.7万人修正至32.3万人；1月份非农新增就业人数从14.3万人修正至12.5万人。修正后，12月和1月新增就业人数合计较修正前低0.2万人。</p><p>美国2月份失业率录得4.1%，为2024年11月以来新高，预期4%。</p><p>美国2月平均每小时工资年率录得4%，低于预期的4.1%，前值由4.10%下修为3.9%；月率则录得0.3%，符合预期，前值由0.5%下修为0.4%。</p><p><strong>行情</strong></p><p>美股三大指数期货直线拉升。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/047e5ce64acbcdb1f21f63bcc9d7c0c8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a65b8d1553b039bbabe7d1c2659a60\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/855701965b3168d8cecef55b2a7561c3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>降息预期改变</strong></p><p>非农就业报告公布后美国短期利率期货下跌；交易员不再押注美联储5月降息。美国利率期货交易员现在押注美联储要等到 6 月才能重新开始降息。</p><p><strong>解读：劳动力市场出现“白领衰退”</strong></p><p>劳动力参与率下降至62.4%。这比1月份下降了0.2个百分点。大约54.6万人离开了劳动力市场。住户调查显示，就业人数减少了58.8万人。</p><p>经济学家表示，特朗普政府反复无常的贸易政策让企业难以提前计划。自1月份以来，商业和消费者信心暴跌，抹去了特朗普去年11月赢得大选后取得的所有增长。断断续续的政府资金冻结导致一些接受联邦拨款的承包商和雇员失业。由于最近增加的就业岗位大多集中在休闲和酒店等低薪行业，这可能会加剧一些经济学家所说的“白领衰退”。</p><p>此外，一些经济学家表示，由于联邦政府裁员及其对整体经济的溢出效应，到今年年底，美国就业人数可能会减少50多万人。特朗普还在部署关税政策，美国铝业公司警告称，关税可能导致10万人失业。此外，任何限制移民或将移民遣返的举措，都将限制近年来就业增长的一个主要来源。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国2月非农就业人数增加15.1万人，预期增加16万人</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国2月非农就业人数增加15.1万人，预期增加16万人\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-03-07 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国2月非农就业人数增加15.1万人，预期增加16万人，前值由增加14.3万人修正为增加12.5万人。</p><p>美国劳工统计局：12月份非农新增就业人数从30.7万人修正至32.3万人；1月份非农新增就业人数从14.3万人修正至12.5万人。修正后，12月和1月新增就业人数合计较修正前低0.2万人。</p><p>美国2月份失业率录得4.1%，为2024年11月以来新高，预期4%。</p><p>美国2月平均每小时工资年率录得4%，低于预期的4.1%，前值由4.10%下修为3.9%；月率则录得0.3%，符合预期，前值由0.5%下修为0.4%。</p><p><strong>行情</strong></p><p>美股三大指数期货直线拉升。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/047e5ce64acbcdb1f21f63bcc9d7c0c8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a65b8d1553b039bbabe7d1c2659a60\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/855701965b3168d8cecef55b2a7561c3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>降息预期改变</strong></p><p>非农就业报告公布后美国短期利率期货下跌；交易员不再押注美联储5月降息。美国利率期货交易员现在押注美联储要等到 6 月才能重新开始降息。</p><p><strong>解读：劳动力市场出现“白领衰退”</strong></p><p>劳动力参与率下降至62.4%。这比1月份下降了0.2个百分点。大约54.6万人离开了劳动力市场。住户调查显示，就业人数减少了58.8万人。</p><p>经济学家表示，特朗普政府反复无常的贸易政策让企业难以提前计划。自1月份以来，商业和消费者信心暴跌，抹去了特朗普去年11月赢得大选后取得的所有增长。断断续续的政府资金冻结导致一些接受联邦拨款的承包商和雇员失业。由于最近增加的就业岗位大多集中在休闲和酒店等低薪行业，这可能会加剧一些经济学家所说的“白领衰退”。</p><p>此外，一些经济学家表示，由于联邦政府裁员及其对整体经济的溢出效应，到今年年底，美国就业人数可能会减少50多万人。特朗普还在部署关税政策，美国铝业公司警告称，关税可能导致10万人失业。此外，任何限制移民或将移民遣返的举措，都将限制近年来就业增长的一个主要来源。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f866f5d880ac7442ed06621cdcccdbfd","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184661613","content_text":"美国2月非农就业人数增加15.1万人，预期增加16万人，前值由增加14.3万人修正为增加12.5万人。美国劳工统计局：12月份非农新增就业人数从30.7万人修正至32.3万人；1月份非农新增就业人数从14.3万人修正至12.5万人。修正后，12月和1月新增就业人数合计较修正前低0.2万人。美国2月份失业率录得4.1%，为2024年11月以来新高，预期4%。美国2月平均每小时工资年率录得4%，低于预期的4.1%，前值由4.10%下修为3.9%；月率则录得0.3%，符合预期，前值由0.5%下修为0.4%。行情美股三大指数期货直线拉升。降息预期改变非农就业报告公布后美国短期利率期货下跌；交易员不再押注美联储5月降息。美国利率期货交易员现在押注美联储要等到 6 月才能重新开始降息。解读：劳动力市场出现“白领衰退”劳动力参与率下降至62.4%。这比1月份下降了0.2个百分点。大约54.6万人离开了劳动力市场。住户调查显示，就业人数减少了58.8万人。经济学家表示，特朗普政府反复无常的贸易政策让企业难以提前计划。自1月份以来，商业和消费者信心暴跌，抹去了特朗普去年11月赢得大选后取得的所有增长。断断续续的政府资金冻结导致一些接受联邦拨款的承包商和雇员失业。由于最近增加的就业岗位大多集中在休闲和酒店等低薪行业，这可能会加剧一些经济学家所说的“白领衰退”。此外，一些经济学家表示，由于联邦政府裁员及其对整体经济的溢出效应，到今年年底，美国就业人数可能会减少50多万人。特朗普还在部署关税政策，美国铝业公司警告称，关税可能导致10万人失业。此外，任何限制移民或将移民遣返的举措，都将限制近年来就业增长的一个主要来源。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":1,"TQQQ":1,"QQQ":1,"YMmain":1,".DJI":1,".SPX":1,"SPY":1,"SQQQ":1,"NQmain":1,".IXIC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405672643539280,"gmtCreate":1740067546007,"gmtModify":1740067814327,"author":{"id":"3480740812980830","authorId":"3480740812980830","name":"多多哟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd05de0483d1fef4c807aa7f7f2e709","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480740812980830","authorIdStr":"3480740812980830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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感谢爸爸，下周饭钱有了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27cd7aa442e4c94800d13deaf4fb7b7","width":"1290","height":"2796"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405672643539280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396158938821272,"gmtCreate":1737740860260,"gmtModify":1737741404417,"author":{"id":"3480740812980830","authorId":"3480740812980830","name":"多多哟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd05de0483d1fef4c807aa7f7f2e709","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480740812980830","authorIdStr":"3480740812980830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20250124 109.0 CALL\">$PDD 20250124 109.0 CALL$</a> 永不让人失望","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20250124 109.0 CALL\">$PDD 20250124 109.0 CALL$</a> 永不让人失望","text":"$PDD 20250124 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