Vinsa8的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Vinsa8

Vinsa8

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IP属地：浙江

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30粉丝

2主题

0勋章

01-29

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天110，下周90

02-03

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 现在还几个人信英伟达讲的故事？

2024-11-08

$NQ100指数主连 2412(NQmain)$ 能不能跌下来，我还没买呢

2024-10-16

$A50指数主连 2410(CNmain)$ Friends who continuously short Chinese stocks in the US stock market, if you continue to short Chinese stocks, I will have no way to pay your mother.

2024-03-12

$NQ100指数主连 2406(NQmain)$ 为什么主连和纳斯达克指数第二天的值差了200-300点，不是应该每天的收盘值是相同的吗？一直没搞明白这个

05-27

$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ 强大的美利坚，带带你弟弟老A

05-13

$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ 明天大🐶哥又接着砸？

2024-04-18

$纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ 能不能猛点，不要搞得跟大A似的[笑哭]

01-27

$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ 每日互动

2024-05-23

$Applied Optoelectronics Inc.(AAOI)$ 跟上

2024-04-20

$纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ 谈谈看法，中东大剧院，N公子把全场的单包圆了。N公子只好跟他爸比，再要点支持（降息吧～）

2024-07-01

$纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ 按照懂王的说法，他要上位了，还是这种情况的话，要把他射到月球上去[开心]

02-04

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 无量拉升

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22:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息：英特尔已为其18A/AP制程锁定至少一家大型AI客户","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133847751","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"并暗示可能还有更多客户。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a> 盘中快速拉升，一度涨近4%。据SemiAccurate报道，英特尔代工厂已为其即将推出的18A/AP制程锁定至少一家大型AI客户，并暗示可能还有更多客户。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b887b2364e9a8643ba7230d3bcacba\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息：英特尔已为其18A/AP制程锁定至少一家大型AI客户</title>\n<style 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盘中快速拉升，一度涨近4%。据SemiAccurate报道，英特尔代工厂已为其即将推出的18A/AP制程锁定至少一家大型AI客户，并暗示可能还有更多客户。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477586123579400,"gmtCreate":1757607947693,"gmtModify":1757608637500,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"锐捷提供AI交换机建设解决方案","listText":"锐捷提供AI交换机建设解决方案","text":"锐捷提供AI交换机建设解决方案","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477586123579400","repostId":"2566571997","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2566571997","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1757604609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2566571997?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-11 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美股有点神经错乱，老鲍修门的事不追究了吗？弄他","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/470019706540568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":469977208726048,"gmtCreate":1755771834775,"gmtModify":1755771994793,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老鲍下课吧","listText":"老鲍下课吧","text":"老鲍下课吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/469977208726048","repostId":"2561632454","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2561632454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1755764779,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2561632454?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-21 16:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"杰克逊霍尔会议最全指引：鲍威尔讲话前你必须知道的一切","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2561632454","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场目光聚焦鲍威尔对于7月非农就业数据的看法，以及是否为9月降息打开大门。目前货币市场交易员预期，9月降息25基点的可能性达到80%。多家大型投行预计鲍威尔可能部分扭转2020年会议上引入的弹性平均通胀目标（FAIT）政策，重新平衡美联储对就业和通胀的双重使命。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场目光聚焦鲍威尔对于7月非农就业数据的看法，以及是否为9月降息打开大门。目前货币市场交易员预期，9月降息25基点的可能性达到80%。多家大型投行预计鲍威尔可能部分扭转2020年会议上引入的弹性平均通胀目标（FAIT）政策，重新平衡美联储对就业和通胀的双重使命。</p></blockquote><p>本周五，全球金融市场的目光将聚焦怀俄明州大提顿山脚下的杰克逊霍尔。</p><p>届时美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上发表讲话，市场密切关注他是否将为9月降息打开大门。<strong>目前货币市场交易员预期，9月降息25基点的可能性达到80%。</strong>杰克逊霍尔会议历来是美联储传递政策信号的重要平台，2023年鲍威尔的讲话曾引导市场预期9月的首次降息。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71ef4eac9bd1cdfa12a4f0d15cbdae93\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"287\"/></p><p>今年的会议主题定为 “转型中的劳动力市场：人口、生产率与宏观政策”。表面上是学术议题，但实际传递出的信号是：<strong>在通胀回落之后，美联储正把重心重新移向就业。而在劳动力市场出现裂痕的当下，政策基调的微调，可能直接决定未来几个月的市场走向。</strong></p><p>与此同时，本次会议还可能涉及美联储框架审查的部分结果，<strong>多家大型投行预计鲍威尔可能部分扭转2020年会议上引入的弹性平均通胀目标（FAIT）政策，重新平衡美联储对就业和通胀的双重使命。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1728631067\">聚焦鲍威尔对劳动力市场的看法</h2><p><strong>鲍威尔将于美国东部时间周五上午10点发表题为“经济展望与框架审查”的演讲。</strong>市场关注点在于他如何评价7月就业报告中显示的美国劳动力市场疲软迹象，以及这些数据是否已足以促使美联储在9月会议上启动降息周期。</p><p>鲍威尔在7月FOMC新闻发布会上曾警告，美国劳动力市场的新增就业潜力正在下降，原因包括移民流入放缓和人口老龄化，即所谓“就业增量门槛”下降。7月非农数据的大幅下修印证了这一点：就业增长可能已接近停滞，失业率回升至4.2%（仍低于长期均值），薪资增长虽放缓，但尚未完全回落。</p><p>7月非农就业报告不仅显示数据大幅低于预期，还对前两个月数据进行了显著下调，劳工统计局将这些修正描述为“大于正常水平”（两个月净修正为-25.8万），引发了市场对劳动力市场状况的担忧。随后公布的CPI数据喜忧参半，总体被市场视为“不如担忧的那么热”，进一步推高了9月降息的预期。</p><p>根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>经济学家David Mericle的预测，<strong>鲍威尔可能会修改他在7月FOMC新闻发布会上的表述，不再强调委员会“处于良好位置”(well positioned)可以等待更多信息。</strong>相反，他可能指出美联储能够应对双重使命的风险，同时强调7月就业报告显示的劳动力市场下行风险，以此向市场传递在必要时支持降息的意向。</p><h2 id=\"id_3047381351\">美联储政策框架迎来调整?</h2><p>杰克逊霍尔历来被视为美联储的政策风向标。过去五年几乎年年带来“政策拐点”：2019年暗示宽松、2020年推出平均通胀目标制（FAIT）、2021年延续宽松导致误判、2022年转向激进紧缩、2023年提示加息接近尾声、2024年则释放降息信号。</p><p>今年会议的一大看点在于<strong>框架审查调整</strong>。高盛和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>预计，美联储可能会部分修正2020年杰克逊霍尔会议上推出的FAIT框架。</p><p>高盛认为，美联储或将回归更传统的“就业双向偏离”目标（既关注不足也关注过热），同时放弃“平均通胀目标”，重新采用“弹性通胀目标”为主要策略。但在利率触及零下限时，仍可能保留一些补偿性工具。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>则更为激进。他们指出，2020年的框架改革是导致通胀超调的重要推手，<strong>因此预计鲍威尔讲话可能会呼吁撤销2020年的修改，恢复预防性政策调整的主导作用。</strong></p><p>如果这些预期兑现，杰克逊霍尔的“拐点效应”或将再度上演：2020年定下的框架，如今可能在2025年被部分修正。</p><h2 id=\"id_2520120456\">年内降息一次？三次？华尔街分歧巨大</h2><p>围绕9月美联储利率决策，华尔街对降息次数的预期出现明显分歧，不同机构基于对就业与通胀数据的解读各有侧重。</p><p>高盛倾向于鸽派立场，预计鲍威尔虽不会明确信号9月降息，但会清楚表明他可能支持这一行动。</p><p>该行认为，<strong>美联储可能在今年进行三次25基点降息。</strong>理由在于7月非农就业数据及前两个月修正显示就业增长明显放缓，失业率虽低，但新增就业潜力下降，市场和工资压力尚可控，高盛预计美联储需要果断行动，以防止劳动力市场进一步恶化。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>则认为市场对9月降息的预期过于自信，该行基准预测显示，下一次降息将在12月才会发生。</strong>巴克莱指出，鲍威尔在7月FOMC新闻发布会上曾暗示委员会不急于调整利率，该行认为最新的就业报告数据并未完全否定鲍威尔的言论。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>则持更为谨慎的态度，该行市场情报团队在一份报告中指出，考虑到美联储9月降息决定将依赖于9月5日的非农就业数据和9月11日的CPI数据，<strong>杰克逊霍尔会议“可能不会产生实质性影响”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3272096704\">市场如何交易杰克逊霍尔会议行情</h2><p>历史上，债券市场通常对杰克逊霍尔会议有明显反应。根据彭博数据，过去几年会议期间美国国债收益率常出现显著变动。</p><p>高盛美国国债交易员Kyle Peterson认为，今年的杰克逊霍尔会议不会带来重大新信息，“50个基点降息的门槛极高，我认为我们还没有看到足够的数据支持这一点。”他建议在现阶段对任何多头头寸获利了结，保持中性立场。</p><p>外汇市场方面，高盛外汇交易员Sarah Stone注意到，虽然大多数市场参与者认为9月的重要事件更值得关注，但他们“或多或少完全忽视了本周末的杰克逊霍尔会议”低估了鲍威尔可能转向鸽派的可能性。</p><p>高盛衍生品策略师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMSB\">John Marshall</a>指出，在杰克逊霍尔会议前，大多数ETF的期权价格相对历史水平较低，特别是与高收益债券、新兴市场和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数相关的ETF。投资者预期与区域银行、房地产和科技行业相关的ETF波动性将会提高。</p><p>随着会议日期临近，市场参与者正在减少美元空头头寸，<strong>并通过购买“便宜的”美元看涨期权保护来应对会议可能带来的风险。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>杰克逊霍尔会议最全指引：鲍威尔讲话前你必须知道的一切</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3753790\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfc5cf8cd977844203e6a6065e4ccbe0","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"标普500反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4588":"碎股","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3753790","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2561632454","content_text":"市场目光聚焦鲍威尔对于7月非农就业数据的看法，以及是否为9月降息打开大门。目前货币市场交易员预期，9月降息25基点的可能性达到80%。多家大型投行预计鲍威尔可能部分扭转2020年会议上引入的弹性平均通胀目标（FAIT）政策，重新平衡美联储对就业和通胀的双重使命。本周五，全球金融市场的目光将聚焦怀俄明州大提顿山脚下的杰克逊霍尔。届时美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上发表讲话，市场密切关注他是否将为9月降息打开大门。目前货币市场交易员预期，9月降息25基点的可能性达到80%。杰克逊霍尔会议历来是美联储传递政策信号的重要平台，2023年鲍威尔的讲话曾引导市场预期9月的首次降息。今年的会议主题定为 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positioned)可以等待更多信息。相反，他可能指出美联储能够应对双重使命的风险，同时强调7月就业报告显示的劳动力市场下行风险，以此向市场传递在必要时支持降息的意向。美联储政策框架迎来调整?杰克逊霍尔历来被视为美联储的政策风向标。过去五年几乎年年带来“政策拐点”：2019年暗示宽松、2020年推出平均通胀目标制（FAIT）、2021年延续宽松导致误判、2022年转向激进紧缩、2023年提示加息接近尾声、2024年则释放降息信号。今年会议的一大看点在于框架审查调整。高盛和德意志银行预计，美联储可能会部分修正2020年杰克逊霍尔会议上推出的FAIT框架。高盛认为，美联储或将回归更传统的“就业双向偏离”目标（既关注不足也关注过热），同时放弃“平均通胀目标”，重新采用“弹性通胀目标”为主要策略。但在利率触及零下限时，仍可能保留一些补偿性工具。德意志银行则更为激进。他们指出，2020年的框架改革是导致通胀超调的重要推手，因此预计鲍威尔讲话可能会呼吁撤销2020年的修改，恢复预防性政策调整的主导作用。如果这些预期兑现，杰克逊霍尔的“拐点效应”或将再度上演：2020年定下的框架，如今可能在2025年被部分修正。年内降息一次？三次？华尔街分歧巨大围绕9月美联储利率决策，华尔街对降息次数的预期出现明显分歧，不同机构基于对就业与通胀数据的解读各有侧重。高盛倾向于鸽派立场，预计鲍威尔虽不会明确信号9月降息，但会清楚表明他可能支持这一行动。该行认为，美联储可能在今年进行三次25基点降息。理由在于7月非农就业数据及前两个月修正显示就业增长明显放缓，失业率虽低，但新增就业潜力下降，市场和工资压力尚可控，高盛预计美联储需要果断行动，以防止劳动力市场进一步恶化。巴克莱银行则认为市场对9月降息的预期过于自信，该行基准预测显示，下一次降息将在12月才会发生。巴克莱指出，鲍威尔在7月FOMC新闻发布会上曾暗示委员会不急于调整利率，该行认为最新的就业报告数据并未完全否定鲍威尔的言论。摩根大通则持更为谨慎的态度，该行市场情报团队在一份报告中指出，考虑到美联储9月降息决定将依赖于9月5日的非农就业数据和9月11日的CPI数据，杰克逊霍尔会议“可能不会产生实质性影响”。市场如何交易杰克逊霍尔会议行情历史上，债券市场通常对杰克逊霍尔会议有明显反应。根据彭博数据，过去几年会议期间美国国债收益率常出现显著变动。高盛美国国债交易员Kyle 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