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淡然1916
2019-02-22
$三倍做空原油ETN(DWT)$ 原油什么时候跌
淡然1916
2019-04-04
$StoneCo(STNE)$ 什么鬼
淡然1916
2020-11-18
$蔚来(NIO)$
加把劲
淡然1916
2021-01-30
$游戏驿站(GME)$
挂多少才合适，急死了
淡然1916
2020-11-19
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
年底交易冷淡，
淡然1916
2020-09-29
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
看好
淡然1916
2021-01-30
$游戏驿站(GME)$
咋没有动静
淡然1916
2024-09-26
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
淡然1916
2022-07-06
d次开
抱歉，原内容已删除
淡然1916
2022-07-06
@Una是个小韭皇
uy
抱歉，原内容已删除
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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从原油、金属到美股都在跌！衰退交易何时休？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-06 22:48 北京时间 <a href=https://www.yicai.com/news/101466500.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>衰退担忧主导市场，这种担忧甚至超乎了基本面。隔夜原油价格闪崩近10%，令人意外的是，这还是发生在供给结构性趋紧的背景下。近期衰退担忧主导市场，这种担忧甚至超乎了基本面，真正的衰退还没到来，“衰退交易”已大行其道——美股崩盘，原油闪崩，“铜博士”大幅回撤，美债收益率在避险情绪下大跌。这场“衰退交易”会如何演绎？何时才会收尾？又将对中国市场产生何种影响？“衰退交易”大行其道事实上，目前主要发达经济体...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101466500.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101466500.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119658306","content_text":"衰退担忧主导市场，这种担忧甚至超乎了基本面。隔夜原油价格闪崩近10%，令人意外的是，这还是发生在供给结构性趋紧的背景下。近期衰退担忧主导市场，这种担忧甚至超乎了基本面，真正的衰退还没到来，“衰退交易”已大行其道——美股崩盘，原油闪崩，“铜博士”大幅回撤，美债收益率在避险情绪下大跌。这场“衰退交易”会如何演绎？何时才会收尾？又将对中国市场产生何种影响？“衰退交易”大行其道事实上，目前主要发达经济体并未真正陷入衰退。对衰退最常见的定义是连续两个季度出现负增长，2022年第一季度，美国实际GDP同比增速意外下降1.5%，如果第二季度(将于7月28日发布)GDP再次下滑，则几乎可以确认美国经济已进入衰退。但大多数经济学家预计，第二季度GDP增速将是正值，经济衰退更可能出现于2023年。瑞银近期表示，并不认为美国会在2022年甚至2023年出现衰退；高盛最新表示，明年美国经济进入衰退的风险为30%，欧元区为40%，英国为45%。不过，市场总是抢先一步。目前各界预计，7月美联储继续加息75BP（基点）的概率较大，同时美国经济增长正在放缓，而美联储主席鲍威尔近期承认，大幅加息可能使经济陷入衰退。但交易员认为，央行并不会因此而退却，目前抗通胀才是首要任务，历史上的多次衰退其实都是由央行紧缩造成的。于是“铜博士”先崩了，铜价被视为衡量全球经济健康和衰退的传统指标之一。在经济扩张周期，对铜的需求会增加，而在经济增长放缓时，需求会下降。早在6月27日，期铜价格就跌至15个月低点，比4个月前周期高点5.0395美元/盎司下跌了近25%。截至北京时间7月6日12时，Comex美铜已经跌破了3.5美元/盎司的关键点位。供不应求的原油价格也出现闪崩。“今天（美东时间7月6日）油价暴跌，布伦特原油价格较上午高点下跌超过10%。在交易流动性较低的情况下，市场对衰退的担忧日益加剧，技术面加剧了抛售。”高盛原油首席策略师达米安·库瓦林(Damien Courvalin)在发给记者的一份报告中提及。油价下跌始于美股开盘之际，与此同时，其他风险资产也普遍下跌。技术因素和趋势跟踪的CTA抛售加剧了跌势。某资深商品交易员对记者表示，比如布伦特原油跌破了100天均线，而且有大量未平仓的看跌期权行权。在这种情况下，大宗商品价格会加速下跌。“这次抛售发生在7月4日美国国庆节之后，交易流动性处于季节性低点。从这个角度来看，这次油价抛售并不那么令人意外，其规模和背景与2021年感恩节后的那次类似。”隔夜美股并未暴跌，而是走出了“深V”反弹，但一段时间以来，美股的抛售早已先行。嘉盛集团资深分析师辛可塔（Fiona Cincotta）对记者表示，从今年的开局来看，标普500指数走出了上世纪70年代以来最糟糕的走势，而科技巨头崩盘使得纳斯达克指数遭遇2002年以来的最大跌幅。二者上半年分别累计下跌20.58%和29.51%。同时，美债收益率也出现暴跌，从6月最高点3.5%附近滑落到2.9%以下。早前，市场的关注点在于美联储加息幅度超出预期，于是美债收益率直线飙升，但随着衰退担忧加剧，债券的避险属性终于凸显，美债收益率迅速回落。对于通胀拥护者来说，鉴于当前美国CPI高达8.6%，核心PCE通胀也达4.7%，2.9%的10年期美债收益率显然太低。他们认为，近期债券的强势只是暂时的喘息之机，收益率终会飙升至新高。不过，新加坡某大型主权机构的策略师对第一财经表示，近几周美股大跌、美债价格依旧坚挺的事实再一次重现了吉布森悖论(Gibson’s Paradox)，即债券收益率和股价之间存在正相关关系，这种现象通常发生在低通胀或通缩背景下。截至今年年初，吉布森悖论统治美国股市和债市已超20年。随着未来通胀逐步缓和、衰退担忧占据主导，早前“股债双杀”的格局将切换至“股跌债涨”。商品颓势短期仍将持续大宗商品是高通胀下唯一的藏身之地，俄乌冲突更是助推商品价格，至少上半年仍是如此。截至2022年2月，大宗商品价格广义指数较2020年4月的低点上涨了85%。在此期间，布伦特原油价格上涨超过350%，铜价上涨125%。俄乌局势发酵后的几周内，大宗商品指数又上涨了30%，油价和小麦价格触及2008年初以来的最高水平。但如今，市场的焦点从供给冲击转向需求萎缩，大宗商品价格也开始崩塌，投资者似乎“无处藏身”。即使是华尔街最看涨大宗商品的投行高盛也于7月5日发布报告称，油价正向衰退恐慌屈服。但该机构仍认为，中长期油价仍将偏强，“今年夏天（出行高峰季）需要更高的油价来平衡石油市场，但我们承认，重大和大规模的冲击继续扭曲基本面。到目前为止，俄罗斯的出口超过了预期。然而，这已被利比亚和厄瓜多尔的产量损失完全抵消，沙特6月的产量也低于预期。”不过，目前显然情绪战胜了基本面。两周前开始，CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）报告就显示，投机者将其原油净多头减少了4.6万手至47万手，空多比例上涨。“美国经济衰退的程度不高，但无人保证这不会是一次长期衰退。居高不下的通胀可能同样束缚美联储，使其不能迅速宽松银根。也就是说，这种情况下出现的衰退，持续的时间或长于其他情况下出现的衰退。上述种种担忧占据了投资者的脑海，油价跌势因此可能持续一段时间。投资者现在更可能逢高沽出而不是逢低买入。”辛可塔对记者称，一旦抛盘重新发威，油价可能下看93美元/桶下方不远处的200天均线。“铜博士”也明显受制于衰退担忧。高盛表示，金属市场交易的是宏观情绪。自4月以来，铜和铝的价格就已与基本面脱钩，在中国推出刺激措施、库存继续下降的情况下，铜、铝价格却在过去一个季度分别下跌了20%和30%。“这种行为表明，投资者如今正面临着异常的市场环境，这使得专注于库存、成本曲线等的传统金属定价模型在决定短期价格时基本失效。”该机构认为，目前金属的颓势可能会持续下去，直到人们对中国刺激措施的效果有足够的信心，以及美联储结束激进的加息周期，市场才会将注意力转移回微观基本面。美股盈利衰退，A股短期走势独立尽管近期“衰退交易”的主角是大宗商品，但这并不代表早前暴跌的美股未来就会风平浪静。上述策略师也对记者表示，迄今为止，标普500指数的下跌完全是由于通胀上升和利率上升导致的估值压缩。现在，股市将开始为盈利衰退定价。瑞银证券实证所（UBS Evidence Lab）梳理了美国过去100年出现的17次衰退，其中10次为轻度衰退（GDP峰值至谷底的降幅低于3%），7次为深度衰退(降幅超过3%）。深度衰退的加权平均市场跌幅为34.4%，市场抛售在深度衰退前3个月就开始，并一共会持续12个月；与轻度衰退相关的市场下跌时间也达到了12个月，但导致的市场抛售开始得更早，即在衰退开始前的8个月就出现抛售，市场的平均跌幅为11%。中长期而言，中国市场仍可能受海外市场影响，但多数国际机构认为，短期A股走势将更趋独立。富敦近期就提及，中国股市正在退出“惩罚箱”，其与美国股市的相关性较低，市场仍有积极因素出现。首先，中国的货币政策与美联储截然相反。这意味着中国股市很可能处于经济逐步触底、货币政策宽松的“甜蜜点”。其次，中国的通胀率非常低，因此央行可以专注于政策刺激；此外，中国科技行业的监管风险正在消退；从相对估值角度来说，中国股票也仍有吸引力。上证综指的远期市盈率为13倍，MSCI中国指数的远期市盈率为10~11倍。即使在美股已经大跌的背景下，A股也仍“划算”很多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDG":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"DUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316713846,"gmtCreate":1611953946885,"gmtModify":1703757067195,"author":{"id":"3490363990990574","authorId":"3490363990990574","name":"淡然1916","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d17ec60e967e4cf5c76ae7988b7b3d6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490363990990574","idStr":"3490363990990574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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