wangsongjob的个人主页 - 老虎社区

wangsongjob

wangsongjob

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2021-08-20

$灿谷(CANG)$流通市值7000多万，回购5000万，这是要买光流通股吗？[笑哭]

2021-10-26

直接买，申请了这么多年

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-26

恢复中概上市也是个必然事件

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-02

$奈雪的茶(02150)$1月份估值130亿，上市就300多亿，有点夸张，跌破也是必然。考虑到二级市场溢价，195-260亿左右是合理

2020-12-16

$SOHO中国(00410)$83w核心地区的核心资产，三折买，不香吗？

01-22

$TLT 20250122 86.0 PUT$ 全拿到

2022-03-18

财报详细地址能不能发一下啊。公司的投资者关系页打不开。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-07

抓周期巴菲特确实做不到，任先生嘴狠牛逼

同行是冤家？刘胜军直言任泽平“忽悠”了许家印

2021-03-05

我看的更乐观，固定成本不会谁收入增加而增加，21年利润8000万美元

抱歉，原内容已删除

01-23

$TLT 20250127 87.0 PUT$ 长看短做

2021-08-25

$灿谷(CANG)$盘子太小，还没进去基金视野，爆发的大概率事件，不过二季度盈业利润太差，受芯片短缺影响，二手车信贷未来方向能做起来就牛逼了

2021-08-05

喜茶估值600亿，奈雪从来没有到过600亿[流泪]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-07

$老虎证券(TIGR)$放平心态，富途一半

2021-03-09

这个每股盈利预测比中金靠谱

抱歉，原内容已删除

02-05

$TLT 20250205 88.5 PUT$ 等待到期

01-29

$TLT 20250129 88.0 PUT$ 重复做对的事

01-29

$TLT 20250127 87.0 PUT$

01-28

$TLT 20250127 87.0 PUT$

01-24

$TIGR 20250124 8.0 CALL$ 波动中增加点现金流

01-23

$TLT 20250122 87.0 PUT$ 到期了，继续卖

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=https://xxgk.mot.gov.cn/2020/jigou/fgs/202212/t20221205_3719525.html><strong>交通运输部</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月5日，交通运输部等部门发布关于修改《网络预约出租汽车经营服务管理暂行办法》的决定。将《网络预约出租汽车经营服务管理暂行办法》第三十四条修改为“违反本规定，擅自从事或者变相从事网约车经营活动，有下列行为之一的，由县级以上出租汽车行政主管部门责令改正，予以警告，并按照以下规定分别予以罚款；构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任：（一）未取得《网络预约出租汽车经营许可证》的，对网约车平台公司处以10000元...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xxgk.mot.gov.cn/2020/jigou/fgs/202212/t20221205_3719525.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{"DIDIY":"DiDi Global 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15:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"同行是冤家？刘胜军直言任泽平“忽悠”了许家印","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147921893","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"9月6日，网红经济学家刘胜军在自媒体发文章，“抨击”了另一位网红经济学家任泽平。\n刘胜军直言恒大的激进，不仅是许家印的野心，同时也受任泽平打鸡血式“忽悠”的影响。\n以往，经济学家们虽然会评议制度、政策","content":"<p>9月6日，网红经济学家刘胜军在自媒体发文章，“抨击”了另一位网红经济学家任泽平。</p>\n<p>刘胜军直言恒大的激进，不仅是许家印的野心，同时也受任泽平打鸡血式“忽悠”的影响。</p>\n<p>以往，经济学家们虽然会评议制度、政策，但基本不太会与同行过不去。</p>\n<p>但这次，刘胜军抨击任泽平的言论，也是让吃瓜群众惊呆。</p>\n<p>刘胜军称，像许家印这样大胆的企业家，缺的不是胆量，而是理性。而任泽平最大的特点就是“煽情”、“忽悠”、“见风就是雨”（任泽平其实不牛，只是他很会吹牛）。干柴遇到烈火，结果可想而知。</p>\n<p>任泽平的核心竞争力就是“唱多”，当初高呼“拿着党章进股市”。任泽平加入恒大时，另一位“网红”分析师李大霄在微博发去贺电，但同时略表遗憾，“多方部队将失去一员大将，这叫我如何是好？”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d7d8f20753c3df102acd5f23e6a415\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>图源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></b></p>\n<p>刘胜军还diss了不少任泽平的观点，甚至直接称后者是“笑话”。</p>\n<p>例如，2017年PPI结束长达四年多的负增长，一路上扬，任泽平激动地高呼“新周期来了”。但是四年后的今日，新周期依然不见踪影。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e86693b5734d54634c117109d5f5eb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，恒大陷入困境的根本原因是过度扩张导致了资金链出问题。</p>\n<p>刘胜军认为，恒大本来就激进，最不需要的就是任泽平这样的“鸡血”式声音。但是任泽平在加入恒大后，发表了一系列的鼓励观点，这样的预测，让许家印的胆子更大了，毕竟任泽平有在国家级智库的工作经验。</p>\n<p><b>包括在2017年12月以1500万年薪加入恒大后，任泽平陆续发表观点称：</b></p>\n<p>“中国未来10年一二线城市房价翻二倍，三四线城市房价翻三倍”、</p>\n<p>“我国城镇化率比到60%，发达国家平均80%以上。中国的城镇化还有至少一二十个百分点，一二十年的空间”、</p>\n<p>“中国城镇住房套户比尚低于1.1，并不存在总量过剩问题。综合考虑城镇化进程、居民收入增长和家庭户均规模小型化、住房更新等，中国房地产市场未来仍有较大发展空间。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8943a31e333628a8994ff45fbec357a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"763\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>刘胜军认为，任泽平的这些观点，只是“屁股决定脑袋”，投其所好。</b></p>\n<p>言下之意，任泽平并不是在进行公正理性的宏观研究，而是许家印心里想什么、希望听到什么声音，任泽平就发出什么声音，给许家印的激情点了一把火，放大了其激进。</p>\n<p>刘胜军还提了一个难以考证的故事，即，此前任泽平和另一位宏观研究泰斗黄燕铭对话时，精准回答了其问题，并称只是顺着对方的思想说而已。</p>\n<p><b>最后，刘胜军还暗示了，许家印同样对任泽平不满。</b></p>\n<p>刘胜军称：“任泽平这剂每年1500万元的药，注定会成为许老板一段苦涩的回忆。看在恒大任职三年多、薪酬合计近5000万的份上，任泽平在离开恒大时写了一句：感谢恒大集团许家印先生的信任和支持，许先生大格局大情怀。</p>\n<p>但是，<b>对于任泽平三年来的“贡献”，恒大和许家印一句话都没说。</b></p>\n<p>而离开恒大后，任泽平也开始对房地产业“放下饭碗就骂娘”，其赴任<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>当首席经济学家后，在今年4月6日回归券业的首场宏观策略报告会上就突然来了一句：房地产是中国最坚硬的泡沫。</p>\n<p>与其2017年底刚履新恒大，就接受媒体专访时称的：“中国未来10年一二线城市房价翻两倍，三四线城市房价翻三倍”，形成鲜明对比。</p>\n<p>尽管这可以解释为，宏观研究学者根据外界环境变动调整观点，但任泽平又用另一个观点给自己“打脸”。</p>\n<p>回归券业后，任泽平在多个公开场合称，他提出过一个分析房地产的框架，即，“长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融”，并称，这个分析框架广为流传，大的开发商、投资者、金融从业人员都在用。</p>\n<p><b>同行是冤家</b></p>\n<p>公开资料显示，刘胜军，是华东师范大学经济学博士。中欧<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600663\">陆家嘴</a>国际金融研究院副院长、中欧国际工商学院案例研究中心副主任。与此同时，刘胜军还是多个财经媒体的专栏作家。</p>\n<p>企查查APP显示，当前刘胜军共有8家关联企业，其中一家已注销，有一家控制企业上海革知商务服务有限公司。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f381e57fa4c724f54c4d3f1314aab8\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>至于任泽平，公开资料显示其为清华大学经济管理学院博士后，中国人民大学经济学博士。前恒大集团首席经济学家，现<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>首席经济学家。而真正使得任泽平出圈的则是当年恒大以1500万的年薪聘请了他。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，刘胜军对于任泽平仿佛是“积怨已久”，曾经在过去几年多次质疑任泽平的水平。</p>\n<p>在昨日其发布的文章中，他也把过去质疑任泽平的文章放在了开头。在《任泽平其实不牛，只是他很会吹牛》中，刘胜军还说对于投行分析师们来说，预测是他们的工作。对于这一“mission impossible”，预测错了其实很正常，也不丢人。但如果因为“蒙对了一次”就认为自己是预测大师，那就是“无知者无畏”了。</p>\n<p>巴菲特都做不到的事情，任泽平“认为”他自己做到了。而面对刘胜军的不断质疑，任泽平也曾经做出过回应。</p>\n<p>任泽平称：“做事做人，最笨的办法才是最好的办法。做学问，最好的捷径是读经典。做研究，最好的捷径是接地气、实战、做基础研究。都是最笨的办法。大家可能发现，我们的研究与学院派不同，那就是观点鲜明、接地气、实战，从不模棱两可。回首往事，深感诸多不足。未经历失意，不足以言成功。能经受多大的诋毁，才能经受多大的赞誉。不为失败辩解，不在荣誉面前停留，一直在路上，风雨兼程。”</p>","source":"TXXW","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n同行是冤家？刘胜军直言任泽平“忽悠”了许家印\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 15:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/omn/20210907/20210907A07VXG00.html><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月6日，网红经济学家刘胜军在自媒体发文章，“抨击”了另一位网红经济学家任泽平。\n刘胜军直言恒大的激进，不仅是许家印的野心，同时也受任泽平打鸡血式“忽悠”的影响。\n以往，经济学家们虽然会评议制度、政策，但基本不太会与同行过不去。\n但这次，刘胜军抨击任泽平的言论，也是让吃瓜群众惊呆。\n刘胜军称，像许家印这样大胆的企业家，缺的不是胆量，而是理性。而任泽平最大的特点就是“煽情”、“忽悠”、“见风就是雨”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210907/20210907A07VXG00.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"601555":"东吴证券","03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210907/20210907A07VXG00.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147921893","content_text":"9月6日，网红经济学家刘胜军在自媒体发文章，“抨击”了另一位网红经济学家任泽平。\n刘胜军直言恒大的激进，不仅是许家印的野心，同时也受任泽平打鸡血式“忽悠”的影响。\n以往，经济学家们虽然会评议制度、政策，但基本不太会与同行过不去。\n但这次，刘胜军抨击任泽平的言论，也是让吃瓜群众惊呆。\n刘胜军称，像许家印这样大胆的企业家，缺的不是胆量，而是理性。而任泽平最大的特点就是“煽情”、“忽悠”、“见风就是雨”（任泽平其实不牛，只是他很会吹牛）。干柴遇到烈火，结果可想而知。\n任泽平的核心竞争力就是“唱多”，当初高呼“拿着党章进股市”。任泽平加入恒大时，另一位“网红”分析师李大霄在微博发去贺电，但同时略表遗憾，“多方部队将失去一员大将，这叫我如何是好？”\n\n图源：视觉中国\n刘胜军还diss了不少任泽平的观点，甚至直接称后者是“笑话”。\n例如，2017年PPI结束长达四年多的负增长，一路上扬，任泽平激动地高呼“新周期来了”。但是四年后的今日，新周期依然不见踪影。\n\n此外，恒大陷入困境的根本原因是过度扩张导致了资金链出问题。\n刘胜军认为，恒大本来就激进，最不需要的就是任泽平这样的“鸡血”式声音。但是任泽平在加入恒大后，发表了一系列的鼓励观点，这样的预测，让许家印的胆子更大了，毕竟任泽平有在国家级智库的工作经验。\n包括在2017年12月以1500万年薪加入恒大后，任泽平陆续发表观点称：\n“中国未来10年一二线城市房价翻二倍，三四线城市房价翻三倍”、\n“我国城镇化率比到60%，发达国家平均80%以上。中国的城镇化还有至少一二十个百分点，一二十年的空间”、\n“中国城镇住房套户比尚低于1.1，并不存在总量过剩问题。综合考虑城镇化进程、居民收入增长和家庭户均规模小型化、住房更新等，中国房地产市场未来仍有较大发展空间。”\n\n刘胜军认为，任泽平的这些观点，只是“屁股决定脑袋”，投其所好。\n言下之意，任泽平并不是在进行公正理性的宏观研究，而是许家印心里想什么、希望听到什么声音，任泽平就发出什么声音，给许家印的激情点了一把火，放大了其激进。\n刘胜军还提了一个难以考证的故事，即，此前任泽平和另一位宏观研究泰斗黄燕铭对话时，精准回答了其问题，并称只是顺着对方的思想说而已。\n最后，刘胜军还暗示了，许家印同样对任泽平不满。\n刘胜军称：“任泽平这剂每年1500万元的药，注定会成为许老板一段苦涩的回忆。看在恒大任职三年多、薪酬合计近5000万的份上，任泽平在离开恒大时写了一句：感谢恒大集团许家印先生的信任和支持，许先生大格局大情怀。\n但是，对于任泽平三年来的“贡献”，恒大和许家印一句话都没说。\n而离开恒大后，任泽平也开始对房地产业“放下饭碗就骂娘”，其赴任东吴证券当首席经济学家后，在今年4月6日回归券业的首场宏观策略报告会上就突然来了一句：房地产是中国最坚硬的泡沫。\n与其2017年底刚履新恒大，就接受媒体专访时称的：“中国未来10年一二线城市房价翻两倍，三四线城市房价翻三倍”，形成鲜明对比。\n尽管这可以解释为，宏观研究学者根据外界环境变动调整观点，但任泽平又用另一个观点给自己“打脸”。\n回归券业后，任泽平在多个公开场合称，他提出过一个分析房地产的框架，即，“长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融”，并称，这个分析框架广为流传，大的开发商、投资者、金融从业人员都在用。\n同行是冤家\n公开资料显示，刘胜军，是华东师范大学经济学博士。中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院副院长、中欧国际工商学院案例研究中心副主任。与此同时，刘胜军还是多个财经媒体的专栏作家。\n企查查APP显示，当前刘胜军共有8家关联企业，其中一家已注销，有一家控制企业上海革知商务服务有限公司。\n\n至于任泽平，公开资料显示其为清华大学经济管理学院博士后，中国人民大学经济学博士。前恒大集团首席经济学家，现东吴证券首席经济学家。而真正使得任泽平出圈的则是当年恒大以1500万的年薪聘请了他。\n值得注意的是，刘胜军对于任泽平仿佛是“积怨已久”，曾经在过去几年多次质疑任泽平的水平。\n在昨日其发布的文章中，他也把过去质疑任泽平的文章放在了开头。在《任泽平其实不牛，只是他很会吹牛》中，刘胜军还说对于投行分析师们来说，预测是他们的工作。对于这一“mission 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15:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"同行是冤家？刘胜军直言任泽平“忽悠”了许家印","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147921893","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"9月6日，网红经济学家刘胜军在自媒体发文章，“抨击”了另一位网红经济学家任泽平。\n刘胜军直言恒大的激进，不仅是许家印的野心，同时也受任泽平打鸡血式“忽悠”的影响。\n以往，经济学家们虽然会评议制度、政策","content":"<p>9月6日，网红经济学家刘胜军在自媒体发文章，“抨击”了另一位网红经济学家任泽平。</p>\n<p>刘胜军直言恒大的激进，不仅是许家印的野心，同时也受任泽平打鸡血式“忽悠”的影响。</p>\n<p>以往，经济学家们虽然会评议制度、政策，但基本不太会与同行过不去。</p>\n<p>但这次，刘胜军抨击任泽平的言论，也是让吃瓜群众惊呆。</p>\n<p>刘胜军称，像许家印这样大胆的企业家，缺的不是胆量，而是理性。而任泽平最大的特点就是“煽情”、“忽悠”、“见风就是雨”（任泽平其实不牛，只是他很会吹牛）。干柴遇到烈火，结果可想而知。</p>\n<p>任泽平的核心竞争力就是“唱多”，当初高呼“拿着党章进股市”。任泽平加入恒大时，另一位“网红”分析师李大霄在微博发去贺电，但同时略表遗憾，“多方部队将失去一员大将，这叫我如何是好？”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d7d8f20753c3df102acd5f23e6a415\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>图源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></b></p>\n<p>刘胜军还diss了不少任泽平的观点，甚至直接称后者是“笑话”。</p>\n<p>例如，2017年PPI结束长达四年多的负增长，一路上扬，任泽平激动地高呼“新周期来了”。但是四年后的今日，新周期依然不见踪影。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e86693b5734d54634c117109d5f5eb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，恒大陷入困境的根本原因是过度扩张导致了资金链出问题。</p>\n<p>刘胜军认为，恒大本来就激进，最不需要的就是任泽平这样的“鸡血”式声音。但是任泽平在加入恒大后，发表了一系列的鼓励观点，这样的预测，让许家印的胆子更大了，毕竟任泽平有在国家级智库的工作经验。</p>\n<p><b>包括在2017年12月以1500万年薪加入恒大后，任泽平陆续发表观点称：</b></p>\n<p>“中国未来10年一二线城市房价翻二倍，三四线城市房价翻三倍”、</p>\n<p>“我国城镇化率比到60%，发达国家平均80%以上。中国的城镇化还有至少一二十个百分点，一二十年的空间”、</p>\n<p>“中国城镇住房套户比尚低于1.1，并不存在总量过剩问题。综合考虑城镇化进程、居民收入增长和家庭户均规模小型化、住房更新等，中国房地产市场未来仍有较大发展空间。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8943a31e333628a8994ff45fbec357a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"763\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>刘胜军认为，任泽平的这些观点，只是“屁股决定脑袋”，投其所好。</b></p>\n<p>言下之意，任泽平并不是在进行公正理性的宏观研究，而是许家印心里想什么、希望听到什么声音，任泽平就发出什么声音，给许家印的激情点了一把火，放大了其激进。</p>\n<p>刘胜军还提了一个难以考证的故事，即，此前任泽平和另一位宏观研究泰斗黄燕铭对话时，精准回答了其问题，并称只是顺着对方的思想说而已。</p>\n<p><b>最后，刘胜军还暗示了，许家印同样对任泽平不满。</b></p>\n<p>刘胜军称：“任泽平这剂每年1500万元的药，注定会成为许老板一段苦涩的回忆。看在恒大任职三年多、薪酬合计近5000万的份上，任泽平在离开恒大时写了一句：感谢恒大集团许家印先生的信任和支持，许先生大格局大情怀。</p>\n<p>但是，<b>对于任泽平三年来的“贡献”，恒大和许家印一句话都没说。</b></p>\n<p>而离开恒大后，任泽平也开始对房地产业“放下饭碗就骂娘”，其赴任<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>当首席经济学家后，在今年4月6日回归券业的首场宏观策略报告会上就突然来了一句：房地产是中国最坚硬的泡沫。</p>\n<p>与其2017年底刚履新恒大，就接受媒体专访时称的：“中国未来10年一二线城市房价翻两倍，三四线城市房价翻三倍”，形成鲜明对比。</p>\n<p>尽管这可以解释为，宏观研究学者根据外界环境变动调整观点，但任泽平又用另一个观点给自己“打脸”。</p>\n<p>回归券业后，任泽平在多个公开场合称，他提出过一个分析房地产的框架，即，“长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融”，并称，这个分析框架广为流传，大的开发商、投资者、金融从业人员都在用。</p>\n<p><b>同行是冤家</b></p>\n<p>公开资料显示，刘胜军，是华东师范大学经济学博士。中欧<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600663\">陆家嘴</a>国际金融研究院副院长、中欧国际工商学院案例研究中心副主任。与此同时，刘胜军还是多个财经媒体的专栏作家。</p>\n<p>企查查APP显示，当前刘胜军共有8家关联企业，其中一家已注销，有一家控制企业上海革知商务服务有限公司。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f381e57fa4c724f54c4d3f1314aab8\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>至于任泽平，公开资料显示其为清华大学经济管理学院博士后，中国人民大学经济学博士。前恒大集团首席经济学家，现<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>首席经济学家。而真正使得任泽平出圈的则是当年恒大以1500万的年薪聘请了他。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，刘胜军对于任泽平仿佛是“积怨已久”，曾经在过去几年多次质疑任泽平的水平。</p>\n<p>在昨日其发布的文章中，他也把过去质疑任泽平的文章放在了开头。在《任泽平其实不牛，只是他很会吹牛》中，刘胜军还说对于投行分析师们来说，预测是他们的工作。对于这一“mission impossible”，预测错了其实很正常，也不丢人。但如果因为“蒙对了一次”就认为自己是预测大师，那就是“无知者无畏”了。</p>\n<p>巴菲特都做不到的事情，任泽平“认为”他自己做到了。而面对刘胜军的不断质疑，任泽平也曾经做出过回应。</p>\n<p>任泽平称：“做事做人，最笨的办法才是最好的办法。做学问，最好的捷径是读经典。做研究，最好的捷径是接地气、实战、做基础研究。都是最笨的办法。大家可能发现，我们的研究与学院派不同，那就是观点鲜明、接地气、实战，从不模棱两可。回首往事，深感诸多不足。未经历失意，不足以言成功。能经受多大的诋毁，才能经受多大的赞誉。不为失败辩解，不在荣誉面前停留，一直在路上，风雨兼程。”</p>","source":"TXXW","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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href=https://new.qq.com/omn/20210907/20210907A07VXG00.html><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月6日，网红经济学家刘胜军在自媒体发文章，“抨击”了另一位网红经济学家任泽平。\n刘胜军直言恒大的激进，不仅是许家印的野心，同时也受任泽平打鸡血式“忽悠”的影响。\n以往，经济学家们虽然会评议制度、政策，但基本不太会与同行过不去。\n但这次，刘胜军抨击任泽平的言论，也是让吃瓜群众惊呆。\n刘胜军称，像许家印这样大胆的企业家，缺的不是胆量，而是理性。而任泽平最大的特点就是“煽情”、“忽悠”、“见风就是雨”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210907/20210907A07VXG00.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"601555":"东吴证券","03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210907/20210907A07VXG00.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147921893","content_text":"9月6日，网红经济学家刘胜军在自媒体发文章，“抨击”了另一位网红经济学家任泽平。\n刘胜军直言恒大的激进，不仅是许家印的野心，同时也受任泽平打鸡血式“忽悠”的影响。\n以往，经济学家们虽然会评议制度、政策，但基本不太会与同行过不去。\n但这次，刘胜军抨击任泽平的言论，也是让吃瓜群众惊呆。\n刘胜军称，像许家印这样大胆的企业家，缺的不是胆量，而是理性。而任泽平最大的特点就是“煽情”、“忽悠”、“见风就是雨”（任泽平其实不牛，只是他很会吹牛）。干柴遇到烈火，结果可想而知。\n任泽平的核心竞争力就是“唱多”，当初高呼“拿着党章进股市”。任泽平加入恒大时，另一位“网红”分析师李大霄在微博发去贺电，但同时略表遗憾，“多方部队将失去一员大将，这叫我如何是好？”\n\n图源：视觉中国\n刘胜军还diss了不少任泽平的观点，甚至直接称后者是“笑话”。\n例如，2017年PPI结束长达四年多的负增长，一路上扬，任泽平激动地高呼“新周期来了”。但是四年后的今日，新周期依然不见踪影。\n\n此外，恒大陷入困境的根本原因是过度扩张导致了资金链出问题。\n刘胜军认为，恒大本来就激进，最不需要的就是任泽平这样的“鸡血”式声音。但是任泽平在加入恒大后，发表了一系列的鼓励观点，这样的预测，让许家印的胆子更大了，毕竟任泽平有在国家级智库的工作经验。\n包括在2017年12月以1500万年薪加入恒大后，任泽平陆续发表观点称：\n“中国未来10年一二线城市房价翻二倍，三四线城市房价翻三倍”、\n“我国城镇化率比到60%，发达国家平均80%以上。中国的城镇化还有至少一二十个百分点，一二十年的空间”、\n“中国城镇住房套户比尚低于1.1，并不存在总量过剩问题。综合考虑城镇化进程、居民收入增长和家庭户均规模小型化、住房更新等，中国房地产市场未来仍有较大发展空间。”\n\n刘胜军认为，任泽平的这些观点，只是“屁股决定脑袋”，投其所好。\n言下之意，任泽平并不是在进行公正理性的宏观研究，而是许家印心里想什么、希望听到什么声音，任泽平就发出什么声音，给许家印的激情点了一把火，放大了其激进。\n刘胜军还提了一个难以考证的故事，即，此前任泽平和另一位宏观研究泰斗黄燕铭对话时，精准回答了其问题，并称只是顺着对方的思想说而已。\n最后，刘胜军还暗示了，许家印同样对任泽平不满。\n刘胜军称：“任泽平这剂每年1500万元的药，注定会成为许老板一段苦涩的回忆。看在恒大任职三年多、薪酬合计近5000万的份上，任泽平在离开恒大时写了一句：感谢恒大集团许家印先生的信任和支持，许先生大格局大情怀。\n但是，对于任泽平三年来的“贡献”，恒大和许家印一句话都没说。\n而离开恒大后，任泽平也开始对房地产业“放下饭碗就骂娘”，其赴任东吴证券当首席经济学家后，在今年4月6日回归券业的首场宏观策略报告会上就突然来了一句：房地产是中国最坚硬的泡沫。\n与其2017年底刚履新恒大，就接受媒体专访时称的：“中国未来10年一二线城市房价翻两倍，三四线城市房价翻三倍”，形成鲜明对比。\n尽管这可以解释为，宏观研究学者根据外界环境变动调整观点，但任泽平又用另一个观点给自己“打脸”。\n回归券业后，任泽平在多个公开场合称，他提出过一个分析房地产的框架，即，“长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融”，并称，这个分析框架广为流传，大的开发商、投资者、金融从业人员都在用。\n同行是冤家\n公开资料显示，刘胜军，是华东师范大学经济学博士。中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院副院长、中欧国际工商学院案例研究中心副主任。与此同时，刘胜军还是多个财经媒体的专栏作家。\n企查查APP显示，当前刘胜军共有8家关联企业，其中一家已注销，有一家控制企业上海革知商务服务有限公司。\n\n至于任泽平，公开资料显示其为清华大学经济管理学院博士后，中国人民大学经济学博士。前恒大集团首席经济学家，现东吴证券首席经济学家。而真正使得任泽平出圈的则是当年恒大以1500万的年薪聘请了他。\n值得注意的是，刘胜军对于任泽平仿佛是“积怨已久”，曾经在过去几年多次质疑任泽平的水平。\n在昨日其发布的文章中，他也把过去质疑任泽平的文章放在了开头。在《任泽平其实不牛，只是他很会吹牛》中，刘胜军还说对于投行分析师们来说，预测是他们的工作。对于这一“mission impossible”，预测错了其实很正常，也不丢人。但如果因为“蒙对了一次”就认为自己是预测大师，那就是“无知者无畏”了。\n巴菲特都做不到的事情，任泽平“认为”他自己做到了。而面对刘胜军的不断质疑，任泽平也曾经做出过回应。\n任泽平称：“做事做人，最笨的办法才是最好的办法。做学问，最好的捷径是读经典。做研究，最好的捷径是接地气、实战、做基础研究。都是最笨的办法。大家可能发现，我们的研究与学院派不同，那就是观点鲜明、接地气、实战，从不模棱两可。回首往事，深感诸多不足。未经历失意，不足以言成功。能经受多大的诋毁，才能经受多大的赞誉。不为失败辩解，不在荣誉面前停留，一直在路上，风雨兼程。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601555":0.9,"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367694418,"gmtCreate":1614942255034,"gmtModify":1703483237914,"author":{"id":"3493159841602305","authorId":"3493159841602305","name":"wangsongjob","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1786e513bab56f2b41f672b2e3847af3","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493159841602305","authorIdStr":"3493159841602305"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我看的更乐观，固定成本不会谁收入增加而增加，21年利润8000万美元","listText":"我看的更乐观，固定成本不会谁收入增加而增加，21年利润8000万美元","text":"我看的更乐观，固定成本不会谁收入增加而增加，21年利润8000万美元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367694418","repostId":"1163359316","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395762673205800,"gmtCreate":1737647286803,"gmtModify":1737647724523,"author":{"id":"3493159841602305","authorId":"3493159841602305","name":"wangsongjob","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1786e513bab56f2b41f672b2e3847af3","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493159841602305","authorIdStr":"3493159841602305"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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