WiLL的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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IP属地：北京

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1主题

0勋章

2018-07-23

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 唉，已经被套了，要不要抛出去呢，纠结，虽然长期看好，但是现在这样实在是不安啊

2022-02-22

$美团-W(03690)$想死的心都有了，怎么办

2022-02-21

唉，可是真的没有多少人看这么明白，大部分人都在高呼打到美团，心寒，美团做这个生意简直就是出力不讨好

抱歉，原内容已删除

2024-01-23

$美团-W(03690)$ 扶不起的阿斗

2024-01-16

$美团-W(03690)$ 对这个公司没有任何信心，摸鱼的太多混日子的太多，可惜我那100万啊，直接没了，想想也是自己活该

2022-11-04

$美团-W(03690)$太垃圾，都不到平均线

2022-10-10

确实很难

@王新喜:外卖送iPhone14：美团长板太长，短板太短

2022-10-06

希望是这样吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-10-06

希望是这样吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-03-11

数据写错了，作者更正下吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-03-09

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@言财美股研究社:以史为鉴：油价暴涨，超级滞胀期来临，大类资产怎么配？

2022-03-01

$美团-W(03690)$天天横盘，烦死了

2022-01-06

$美团-W(03690)$美团还能涨上来吗，懂的人来聊聊

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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京东到家上选购手机，下单即可享受小时级送达服务。而在美团APP一级入口——品质百货中，iPhone14 Pro放在了头部banner位置，主打30~60分钟送货。 由于即时零售是京东阿里们的主战场，这场战役对于美团来说，是一场用户心智抢夺大战，它要让消费者明白，在美团上不仅可以点外卖，还可以买手机，点其他数码3C产品。 对京东来说，它要守住数码3C产品的主场，尤其是在即时零售领域，不能失守。 两家都有共性长板——庞大的物流配送团队。但是打到现在，效果并不明显。美团平台上iPhone14 Pro长期处于缺货状态，最新上市的iPhone14 plus 512G也处于缺货状态，也美团暂时还不具备从京东阿里平台抢食的能力，问题究竟出在哪？ 美团攻，京东守，美团闪购为何不温不火？ 早在上市前，美团的战略定位是“Food+Platform”，这个定位其实就明确了美团的边界扩张方向应该是切实物电商的蛋糕，后来，美团把集团战略从 “Food + Platform” 升级成了 “零售 + 科技”，重心开始侧向零售。 早在今年初，我写过一篇文章《美团做电商：找对了方向，但走错了路》。指出美团做电商虽然找对了方向，但还没有找到一条对的路。 我给美团开的药方是做同城电商，充分利用它的配送优势，切入同城3C数码等电商核心品类。因为实物电商的核心品类是集中在服饰美妆、3C电子、快消品等领域，这是阿里京东拼多多的核心腹地，也是美团一直没有切入的战场。 如今美团APP一级入口——蔬菜水果、超市便利、品质百货、买药，都是同城零售业务，隶属美团闪购项目。 美团在畅想一个有关同城零售的增量市场，它覆盖的市场量级要比外卖市场要大的多，也广的多。 市场量级虽然很大，但零售的生意比外卖要难得多，尤其是3C数码品类的同城配送生意。早在2020年，美团曾经和华为合","listText":"围绕iPhone14，京东、美团发动了一场即时配送大战。 京东到家上选购手机，下单即可享受小时级送达服务。而在美团APP一级入口——品质百货中，iPhone14 Pro放在了头部banner位置，主打30~60分钟送货。 由于即时零售是京东阿里们的主战场，这场战役对于美团来说，是一场用户心智抢夺大战，它要让消费者明白，在美团上不仅可以点外卖，还可以买手机，点其他数码3C产品。 对京东来说，它要守住数码3C产品的主场，尤其是在即时零售领域，不能失守。 两家都有共性长板——庞大的物流配送团队。但是打到现在，效果并不明显。美团平台上iPhone14 Pro长期处于缺货状态，最新上市的iPhone14 plus 512G也处于缺货状态，也美团暂时还不具备从京东阿里平台抢食的能力，问题究竟出在哪？ 美团攻，京东守，美团闪购为何不温不火？ 早在上市前，美团的战略定位是“Food+Platform”，这个定位其实就明确了美团的边界扩张方向应该是切实物电商的蛋糕，后来，美团把集团战略从 “Food + Platform” 升级成了 “零售 + 科技”，重心开始侧向零售。 早在今年初，我写过一篇文章《美团做电商：找对了方向，但走错了路》。指出美团做电商虽然找对了方向，但还没有找到一条对的路。 我给美团开的药方是做同城电商，充分利用它的配送优势，切入同城3C数码等电商核心品类。因为实物电商的核心品类是集中在服饰美妆、3C电子、快消品等领域，这是阿里京东拼多多的核心腹地，也是美团一直没有切入的战场。 如今美团APP一级入口——蔬菜水果、超市便利、品质百货、买药，都是同城零售业务，隶属美团闪购项目。 美团在畅想一个有关同城零售的增量市场，它覆盖的市场量级要比外卖市场要大的多，也广的多。 市场量级虽然很大，但零售的生意比外卖要难得多，尤其是3C数码品类的同城配送生意。早在2020年，美团曾经和华为合","text":"围绕iPhone14，京东、美团发动了一场即时配送大战。 京东到家上选购手机，下单即可享受小时级送达服务。而在美团APP一级入口——品质百货中，iPhone14 Pro放在了头部banner位置，主打30~60分钟送货。 由于即时零售是京东阿里们的主战场，这场战役对于美团来说，是一场用户心智抢夺大战，它要让消费者明白，在美团上不仅可以点外卖，还可以买手机，点其他数码3C产品。 对京东来说，它要守住数码3C产品的主场，尤其是在即时零售领域，不能失守。 两家都有共性长板——庞大的物流配送团队。但是打到现在，效果并不明显。美团平台上iPhone14 Pro长期处于缺货状态，最新上市的iPhone14 plus 512G也处于缺货状态，也美团暂时还不具备从京东阿里平台抢食的能力，问题究竟出在哪？ 美团攻，京东守，美团闪购为何不温不火？ 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市场量级虽然很大，但零售的生意比外卖要难得多，尤其是3C数码品类的同城配送生意。早在2020年，美团曾经和华为合","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd07889b4fafa8a4f947bb28a768328e","width":"632","height":"626"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87017ed89978eb148923e834013cef42","width":"632","height":"1228"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538fd358288b9339c8ac1d58e8c3a278","width":"632","height":"984"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668765819","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668491144,"gmtCreate":1665028404388,"gmtModify":1665028405240,"author":{"id":"3493193916604543","authorId":"3493193916604543","name":"WiLL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493193916604543","authorIdStr":"3493193916604543"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望是这样吧","listText":"希望是这样吧","text":"希望是这样吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668491144","repostId":"2273824771","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668491314,"gmtCreate":1665028383339,"gmtModify":1665028386175,"author":{"id":"3493193916604543","authorId":"3493193916604543","name":"WiLL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493193916604543","authorIdStr":"3493193916604543"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望是这样吧","listText":"希望是这样吧","text":"希望是这样吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668491314","repostId":"2273824771","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635665973,"gmtCreate":1646983268394,"gmtModify":1646983268394,"author":{"id":"3493193916604543","authorId":"3493193916604543","name":"WiLL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493193916604543","authorIdStr":"3493193916604543"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"数据写错了，作者更正下吧","listText":"数据写错了，作者更正下吧","text":"数据写错了，作者更正下吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635665973","repostId":"2218292024","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635938200,"gmtCreate":1646790104734,"gmtModify":1646790104734,"author":{"id":"3493193916604543","authorId":"3493193916604543","name":"WiLL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493193916604543","authorIdStr":"3493193916604543"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635938200","repostId":"632710058","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":632710058,"gmtCreate":1646703674412,"gmtModify":1744960795390,"author":{"id":"4087984885325640","authorId":"4087984885325640","name":"言财美股研究社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4b8de7e5193af177d4fd115494e4a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087984885325640","authorIdStr":"4087984885325640"},"themes":[],"title":"以史为鉴：油价暴涨，超级滞胀期来临，大类资产怎么配？","htmlText":"大类资产轮动是否存在规律？今年以来，多件风险事件叠加监管政策因素持续冲击多个市场，各类资产走势分化。尤其是近期在俄乌冲突升级以后，石油价格以60年最快的速度暴涨，带动大宗商品集体暴动，铜、铝、镍等等近期都走出了摧枯拉朽的走势，暴涨的大宗商品给全球经济带来巨大的压力，经济衰退风险骤然提升，一边是高企的通胀，一边是下行的经济，这种组合，怎么配置？从大类资产轮动的角度出发，站在当下时点，市场所面临的是怎样的环境？回顾历史，以美林时钟以及杠杆周期的核心逻辑为出发点，试图回答这个问题。他山之石，可以攻玉，回顾历史：是否存在轮动规律？从美林时钟出发，回顾近十年来，大类资产的表现，其核心逻辑在于，在经济周期的不同阶段均有表现好于大市的资产出现，因此基于经济周期演变对股票、可转债、利率债以及信用债、房地产、大宗商品这六大类资产的价格走势进行分析。使用工业增加值作为经济增长的代指标，将CPI作为衡量通胀的指标，根据不同组合将经济周期分为：复苏期（经济上行、通胀下行）、过热期（经济上行、通胀上行）、滞涨期（经济下行、通胀上行）、衰退期(经济下行、通胀下行)。Ⅰ衰退：债券&gt;现金&gt;股票&gt;大宗商品Ⅱ复苏：大宗商品&gt;股票&gt;债券&gt;现金Ⅲ过热：股票&gt;大宗商品&gt;现金/债券Ⅳ滞胀：现金&gt;大宗商品/债券&gt;股票当下经济进入了典型的滞涨阶段，大宗商品暴涨，在本阶段，股票成为表现最差的资产，现金与大宗商品则成为表现更好的资产。本文以2007-2015年这一段时间来完整展现，大经济周期之下，各类资产的表现，来分析各类阶段大类资产配置的要点所在。2007 -2012年：回顾大类资产的历史走势，2007至2012年所经历的四年是由经济周期本身驱动的大类资产轮动历程。我们选取选取上证综指、中证转债指数、10年期国债到期收益率、3年期中票到期收益率（AA+）以及信用利","listText":"大类资产轮动是否存在规律？今年以来，多件风险事件叠加监管政策因素持续冲击多个市场，各类资产走势分化。尤其是近期在俄乌冲突升级以后，石油价格以60年最快的速度暴涨，带动大宗商品集体暴动，铜、铝、镍等等近期都走出了摧枯拉朽的走势，暴涨的大宗商品给全球经济带来巨大的压力，经济衰退风险骤然提升，一边是高企的通胀，一边是下行的经济，这种组合，怎么配置？从大类资产轮动的角度出发，站在当下时点，市场所面临的是怎样的环境？回顾历史，以美林时钟以及杠杆周期的核心逻辑为出发点，试图回答这个问题。他山之石，可以攻玉，回顾历史：是否存在轮动规律？从美林时钟出发，回顾近十年来，大类资产的表现，其核心逻辑在于，在经济周期的不同阶段均有表现好于大市的资产出现，因此基于经济周期演变对股票、可转债、利率债以及信用债、房地产、大宗商品这六大类资产的价格走势进行分析。使用工业增加值作为经济增长的代指标，将CPI作为衡量通胀的指标，根据不同组合将经济周期分为：复苏期（经济上行、通胀下行）、过热期（经济上行、通胀上行）、滞涨期（经济下行、通胀上行）、衰退期(经济下行、通胀下行)。Ⅰ衰退：债券&gt;现金&gt;股票&gt;大宗商品Ⅱ复苏：大宗商品&gt;股票&gt;债券&gt;现金Ⅲ过热：股票&gt;大宗商品&gt;现金/债券Ⅳ滞胀：现金&gt;大宗商品/债券&gt;股票当下经济进入了典型的滞涨阶段，大宗商品暴涨，在本阶段，股票成为表现最差的资产，现金与大宗商品则成为表现更好的资产。本文以2007-2015年这一段时间来完整展现，大经济周期之下，各类资产的表现，来分析各类阶段大类资产配置的要点所在。2007 -2012年：回顾大类资产的历史走势，2007至2012年所经历的四年是由经济周期本身驱动的大类资产轮动历程。我们选取选取上证综指、中证转债指数、10年期国债到期收益率、3年期中票到期收益率（AA+）以及信用利","text":"大类资产轮动是否存在规律？今年以来，多件风险事件叠加监管政策因素持续冲击多个市场，各类资产走势分化。尤其是近期在俄乌冲突升级以后，石油价格以60年最快的速度暴涨，带动大宗商品集体暴动，铜、铝、镍等等近期都走出了摧枯拉朽的走势，暴涨的大宗商品给全球经济带来巨大的压力，经济衰退风险骤然提升，一边是高企的通胀，一边是下行的经济，这种组合，怎么配置？从大类资产轮动的角度出发，站在当下时点，市场所面临的是怎样的环境？回顾历史，以美林时钟以及杠杆周期的核心逻辑为出发点，试图回答这个问题。他山之石，可以攻玉，回顾历史：是否存在轮动规律？从美林时钟出发，回顾近十年来，大类资产的表现，其核心逻辑在于，在经济周期的不同阶段均有表现好于大市的资产出现，因此基于经济周期演变对股票、可转债、利率债以及信用债、房地产、大宗商品这六大类资产的价格走势进行分析。使用工业增加值作为经济增长的代指标，将CPI作为衡量通胀的指标，根据不同组合将经济周期分为：复苏期（经济上行、通胀下行）、过热期（经济上行、通胀上行）、滞涨期（经济下行、通胀上行）、衰退期(经济下行、通胀下行)。Ⅰ衰退：债券>现金>股票>大宗商品Ⅱ复苏：大宗商品>股票>债券>现金Ⅲ过热：股票>大宗商品>现金/债券Ⅳ滞胀：现金>大宗商品/债券>股票当下经济进入了典型的滞涨阶段，大宗商品暴涨，在本阶段，股票成为表现最差的资产，现金与大宗商品则成为表现更好的资产。本文以2007-2015年这一段时间来完整展现，大经济周期之下，各类资产的表现，来分析各类阶段大类资产配置的要点所在。2007 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京东到家上选购手机，下单即可享受小时级送达服务。而在美团APP一级入口——品质百货中，iPhone14 Pro放在了头部banner位置，主打30~60分钟送货。 由于即时零售是京东阿里们的主战场，这场战役对于美团来说，是一场用户心智抢夺大战，它要让消费者明白，在美团上不仅可以点外卖，还可以买手机，点其他数码3C产品。 对京东来说，它要守住数码3C产品的主场，尤其是在即时零售领域，不能失守。 两家都有共性长板——庞大的物流配送团队。但是打到现在，效果并不明显。美团平台上iPhone14 Pro长期处于缺货状态，最新上市的iPhone14 plus 512G也处于缺货状态，也美团暂时还不具备从京东阿里平台抢食的能力，问题究竟出在哪？ 美团攻，京东守，美团闪购为何不温不火？ 早在上市前，美团的战略定位是“Food+Platform”，这个定位其实就明确了美团的边界扩张方向应该是切实物电商的蛋糕，后来，美团把集团战略从 “Food + Platform” 升级成了 “零售 + 科技”，重心开始侧向零售。 早在今年初，我写过一篇文章《美团做电商：找对了方向，但走错了路》。指出美团做电商虽然找对了方向，但还没有找到一条对的路。 我给美团开的药方是做同城电商，充分利用它的配送优势，切入同城3C数码等电商核心品类。因为实物电商的核心品类是集中在服饰美妆、3C电子、快消品等领域，这是阿里京东拼多多的核心腹地，也是美团一直没有切入的战场。 如今美团APP一级入口——蔬菜水果、超市便利、品质百货、买药，都是同城零售业务，隶属美团闪购项目。 美团在畅想一个有关同城零售的增量市场，它覆盖的市场量级要比外卖市场要大的多，也广的多。 市场量级虽然很大，但零售的生意比外卖要难得多，尤其是3C数码品类的同城配送生意。早在2020年，美团曾经和华为合","listText":"围绕iPhone14，京东、美团发动了一场即时配送大战。 京东到家上选购手机，下单即可享受小时级送达服务。而在美团APP一级入口——品质百货中，iPhone14 Pro放在了头部banner位置，主打30~60分钟送货。 由于即时零售是京东阿里们的主战场，这场战役对于美团来说，是一场用户心智抢夺大战，它要让消费者明白，在美团上不仅可以点外卖，还可以买手机，点其他数码3C产品。 对京东来说，它要守住数码3C产品的主场，尤其是在即时零售领域，不能失守。 两家都有共性长板——庞大的物流配送团队。但是打到现在，效果并不明显。美团平台上iPhone14 Pro长期处于缺货状态，最新上市的iPhone14 plus 512G也处于缺货状态，也美团暂时还不具备从京东阿里平台抢食的能力，问题究竟出在哪？ 美团攻，京东守，美团闪购为何不温不火？ 早在上市前，美团的战略定位是“Food+Platform”，这个定位其实就明确了美团的边界扩张方向应该是切实物电商的蛋糕，后来，美团把集团战略从 “Food + Platform” 升级成了 “零售 + 科技”，重心开始侧向零售。 早在今年初，我写过一篇文章《美团做电商：找对了方向，但走错了路》。指出美团做电商虽然找对了方向，但还没有找到一条对的路。 我给美团开的药方是做同城电商，充分利用它的配送优势，切入同城3C数码等电商核心品类。因为实物电商的核心品类是集中在服饰美妆、3C电子、快消品等领域，这是阿里京东拼多多的核心腹地，也是美团一直没有切入的战场。 如今美团APP一级入口——蔬菜水果、超市便利、品质百货、买药，都是同城零售业务，隶属美团闪购项目。 美团在畅想一个有关同城零售的增量市场，它覆盖的市场量级要比外卖市场要大的多，也广的多。 市场量级虽然很大，但零售的生意比外卖要难得多，尤其是3C数码品类的同城配送生意。早在2020年，美团曾经和华为合","text":"围绕iPhone14，京东、美团发动了一场即时配送大战。 京东到家上选购手机，下单即可享受小时级送达服务。而在美团APP一级入口——品质百货中，iPhone14 Pro放在了头部banner位置，主打30~60分钟送货。 由于即时零售是京东阿里们的主战场，这场战役对于美团来说，是一场用户心智抢夺大战，它要让消费者明白，在美团上不仅可以点外卖，还可以买手机，点其他数码3C产品。 对京东来说，它要守住数码3C产品的主场，尤其是在即时零售领域，不能失守。 两家都有共性长板——庞大的物流配送团队。但是打到现在，效果并不明显。美团平台上iPhone14 Pro长期处于缺货状态，最新上市的iPhone14 plus 512G也处于缺货状态，也美团暂时还不具备从京东阿里平台抢食的能力，问题究竟出在哪？ 美团攻，京东守，美团闪购为何不温不火？ 早在上市前，美团的战略定位是“Food+Platform”，这个定位其实就明确了美团的边界扩张方向应该是切实物电商的蛋糕，后来，美团把集团战略从 “Food + Platform” 升级成了 “零售 + 科技”，重心开始侧向零售。 早在今年初，我写过一篇文章《美团做电商：找对了方向，但走错了路》。指出美团做电商虽然找对了方向，但还没有找到一条对的路。 我给美团开的药方是做同城电商，充分利用它的配送优势，切入同城3C数码等电商核心品类。因为实物电商的核心品类是集中在服饰美妆、3C电子、快消品等领域，这是阿里京东拼多多的核心腹地，也是美团一直没有切入的战场。 如今美团APP一级入口——蔬菜水果、超市便利、品质百货、买药，都是同城零售业务，隶属美团闪购项目。 美团在畅想一个有关同城零售的增量市场，它覆盖的市场量级要比外卖市场要大的多，也广的多。 市场量级虽然很大，但零售的生意比外卖要难得多，尤其是3C数码品类的同城配送生意。早在2020年，美团曾经和华为合","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd07889b4fafa8a4f947bb28a768328e","width":"632","height":"626"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87017ed89978eb148923e834013cef42","width":"632","height":"1228"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538fd358288b9339c8ac1d58e8c3a278","width":"632","height":"984"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668765819","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668491144,"gmtCreate":1665028404388,"gmtModify":1665028405240,"author":{"id":"3493193916604543","authorId":"3493193916604543","name":"WiLL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493193916604543","authorIdStr":"3493193916604543"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望是这样吧","listText":"希望是这样吧","text":"希望是这样吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668491144","repostId":"2273824771","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668491314,"gmtCreate":1665028383339,"gmtModify":1665028386175,"author":{"id":"3493193916604543","authorId":"3493193916604543","name":"WiLL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493193916604543","authorIdStr":"3493193916604543"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望是这样吧","listText":"希望是这样吧","text":"希望是这样吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668491314","repostId":"2273824771","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635665973,"gmtCreate":1646983268394,"gmtModify":1646983268394,"author":{"id":"3493193916604543","authorId":"3493193916604543","name":"WiLL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493193916604543","authorIdStr":"3493193916604543"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"数据写错了，作者更正下吧","listText":"数据写错了，作者更正下吧","text":"数据写错了，作者更正下吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635665973","repostId":"2218292024","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635938200,"gmtCreate":1646790104734,"gmtModify":1646790104734,"author":{"id":"3493193916604543","authorId":"3493193916604543","name":"WiLL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493193916604543","authorIdStr":"3493193916604543"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635938200","repostId":"632710058","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":632710058,"gmtCreate":1646703674412,"gmtModify":1744960795390,"author":{"id":"4087984885325640","authorId":"4087984885325640","name":"言财美股研究社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4b8de7e5193af177d4fd115494e4a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087984885325640","authorIdStr":"4087984885325640"},"themes":[],"title":"以史为鉴：油价暴涨，超级滞胀期来临，大类资产怎么配？","htmlText":"大类资产轮动是否存在规律？今年以来，多件风险事件叠加监管政策因素持续冲击多个市场，各类资产走势分化。尤其是近期在俄乌冲突升级以后，石油价格以60年最快的速度暴涨，带动大宗商品集体暴动，铜、铝、镍等等近期都走出了摧枯拉朽的走势，暴涨的大宗商品给全球经济带来巨大的压力，经济衰退风险骤然提升，一边是高企的通胀，一边是下行的经济，这种组合，怎么配置？从大类资产轮动的角度出发，站在当下时点，市场所面临的是怎样的环境？回顾历史，以美林时钟以及杠杆周期的核心逻辑为出发点，试图回答这个问题。他山之石，可以攻玉，回顾历史：是否存在轮动规律？从美林时钟出发，回顾近十年来，大类资产的表现，其核心逻辑在于，在经济周期的不同阶段均有表现好于大市的资产出现，因此基于经济周期演变对股票、可转债、利率债以及信用债、房地产、大宗商品这六大类资产的价格走势进行分析。使用工业增加值作为经济增长的代指标，将CPI作为衡量通胀的指标，根据不同组合将经济周期分为：复苏期（经济上行、通胀下行）、过热期（经济上行、通胀上行）、滞涨期（经济下行、通胀上行）、衰退期(经济下行、通胀下行)。Ⅰ衰退：债券&gt;现金&gt;股票&gt;大宗商品Ⅱ复苏：大宗商品&gt;股票&gt;债券&gt;现金Ⅲ过热：股票&gt;大宗商品&gt;现金/债券Ⅳ滞胀：现金&gt;大宗商品/债券&gt;股票当下经济进入了典型的滞涨阶段，大宗商品暴涨，在本阶段，股票成为表现最差的资产，现金与大宗商品则成为表现更好的资产。本文以2007-2015年这一段时间来完整展现，大经济周期之下，各类资产的表现，来分析各类阶段大类资产配置的要点所在。2007 -2012年：回顾大类资产的历史走势，2007至2012年所经历的四年是由经济周期本身驱动的大类资产轮动历程。我们选取选取上证综指、中证转债指数、10年期国债到期收益率、3年期中票到期收益率（AA+）以及信用利","listText":"大类资产轮动是否存在规律？今年以来，多件风险事件叠加监管政策因素持续冲击多个市场，各类资产走势分化。尤其是近期在俄乌冲突升级以后，石油价格以60年最快的速度暴涨，带动大宗商品集体暴动，铜、铝、镍等等近期都走出了摧枯拉朽的走势，暴涨的大宗商品给全球经济带来巨大的压力，经济衰退风险骤然提升，一边是高企的通胀，一边是下行的经济，这种组合，怎么配置？从大类资产轮动的角度出发，站在当下时点，市场所面临的是怎样的环境？回顾历史，以美林时钟以及杠杆周期的核心逻辑为出发点，试图回答这个问题。他山之石，可以攻玉，回顾历史：是否存在轮动规律？从美林时钟出发，回顾近十年来，大类资产的表现，其核心逻辑在于，在经济周期的不同阶段均有表现好于大市的资产出现，因此基于经济周期演变对股票、可转债、利率债以及信用债、房地产、大宗商品这六大类资产的价格走势进行分析。使用工业增加值作为经济增长的代指标，将CPI作为衡量通胀的指标，根据不同组合将经济周期分为：复苏期（经济上行、通胀下行）、过热期（经济上行、通胀上行）、滞涨期（经济下行、通胀上行）、衰退期(经济下行、通胀下行)。Ⅰ衰退：债券&gt;现金&gt;股票&gt;大宗商品Ⅱ复苏：大宗商品&gt;股票&gt;债券&gt;现金Ⅲ过热：股票&gt;大宗商品&gt;现金/债券Ⅳ滞胀：现金&gt;大宗商品/债券&gt;股票当下经济进入了典型的滞涨阶段，大宗商品暴涨，在本阶段，股票成为表现最差的资产，现金与大宗商品则成为表现更好的资产。本文以2007-2015年这一段时间来完整展现，大经济周期之下，各类资产的表现，来分析各类阶段大类资产配置的要点所在。2007 -2012年：回顾大类资产的历史走势，2007至2012年所经历的四年是由经济周期本身驱动的大类资产轮动历程。我们选取选取上证综指、中证转债指数、10年期国债到期收益率、3年期中票到期收益率（AA+）以及信用利","text":"大类资产轮动是否存在规律？今年以来，多件风险事件叠加监管政策因素持续冲击多个市场，各类资产走势分化。尤其是近期在俄乌冲突升级以后，石油价格以60年最快的速度暴涨，带动大宗商品集体暴动，铜、铝、镍等等近期都走出了摧枯拉朽的走势，暴涨的大宗商品给全球经济带来巨大的压力，经济衰退风险骤然提升，一边是高企的通胀，一边是下行的经济，这种组合，怎么配置？从大类资产轮动的角度出发，站在当下时点，市场所面临的是怎样的环境？回顾历史，以美林时钟以及杠杆周期的核心逻辑为出发点，试图回答这个问题。他山之石，可以攻玉，回顾历史：是否存在轮动规律？从美林时钟出发，回顾近十年来，大类资产的表现，其核心逻辑在于，在经济周期的不同阶段均有表现好于大市的资产出现，因此基于经济周期演变对股票、可转债、利率债以及信用债、房地产、大宗商品这六大类资产的价格走势进行分析。使用工业增加值作为经济增长的代指标，将CPI作为衡量通胀的指标，根据不同组合将经济周期分为：复苏期（经济上行、通胀下行）、过热期（经济上行、通胀上行）、滞涨期（经济下行、通胀上行）、衰退期(经济下行、通胀下行)。Ⅰ衰退：债券>现金>股票>大宗商品Ⅱ复苏：大宗商品>股票>债券>现金Ⅲ过热：股票>大宗商品>现金/债券Ⅳ滞胀：现金>大宗商品/债券>股票当下经济进入了典型的滞涨阶段，大宗商品暴涨，在本阶段，股票成为表现最差的资产，现金与大宗商品则成为表现更好的资产。本文以2007-2015年这一段时间来完整展现，大经济周期之下，各类资产的表现，来分析各类阶段大类资产配置的要点所在。2007 -2012年：回顾大类资产的历史走势，2007至2012年所经历的四年是由经济周期本身驱动的大类资产轮动历程。我们选取选取上证综指、中证转债指数、10年期国债到期收益率、3年期中票到期收益率（AA+）以及信用利","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a808fea3ab7e2767b2ee0699f10b35a","width":"632","height":"136"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6db8bba48fc12eb6685da576f42c7d77","width":"632","height":"160"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb1642bde731c50808df9e508e98680","width":"632","height":"385"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632710058","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636773147,"gmtCreate":1646122656884,"gmtModify":1646122656884,"author":{"id":"3493193916604543","authorId":"3493193916604543","name":"WiLL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493193916604543","authorIdStr":"3493193916604543"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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