GLA的个人主页 - 老虎社区

GLA

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IP属地：天津

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0勋章

10-11 00:16

$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$ 这个是什么，我的持仓显示的这个，不是说10号老股可以交易吗，是老虎问题吗

10-10 09:27

$金叶国际集团(08549)$ 没人？

10-09

$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ ？

10-09

$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ 这是啥公司

10-09

黄教主的发言真的很有水平

黄仁勋：近半年AI需求大增，英伟达参投马斯克的xAI，可惜没投更多，对OpenAI也这样遗憾

10-06

确实是这样，就看什么时候破

AI泡沫越吹越大？英伟达式“投资循环”被质疑加剧市场风险

10-04

得等港股通吗不是

09-30

$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$ 现在交易的这个是已经按1：120比例稀释过的新股吗，有大佬解读一下吗

09-30

$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$ amazing

09-30

$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$ 死前留念

09-26

$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$ 1块3保卫战吗😑

09-26

mark

@港股解码:中国聚变公司首次亮相，概念股集体躁动！AI的尽头是核聚变？

09-25

$德泰新能源集团(00559)$ 竟然一个人都没有

09-18

$福森药业(01652)$ 呃😑这么冷清？

09-18

只能让它去死了 [笑哭]

09-12

阿姆斯特丹

09-09

$云知声(09678)$ 干的漂亮，这只破股票凭什么能涨这么多？早该跌了

09-05

为啥跌这么多天

09-04

反向预测吗，这个砖家牛啊

张忆东：7月以来港股利空已接近尾声，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛

09-03

集中公示专利？

长城汽车取得储氢瓶及车辆相关专利，能防止内胆屈曲变形和凹陷

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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这个是什么，我的持仓显示的这个，不是说10号老股可以交易吗，是老虎问题吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff91b3e9661babae81725c4ed9059dd1","width":"1200","height":"2652"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487773982408800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487548704395304,"gmtCreate":1760059673512,"gmtModify":1760062199983,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08549\">$金叶国际集团(08549)$ </a> 没人？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08549\">$金叶国际集团(08549)$ </a> 没人？","text":"$金叶国际集团(08549)$ 没人？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487548704395304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487394692760368,"gmtCreate":1760021737836,"gmtModify":1760021739416,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLBX\">$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ </a> ？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLBX\">$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ </a> ？","text":"$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ ？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487394692760368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":487394222596424,"gmtCreate":1760021722881,"gmtModify":1760021724561,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLBX\">$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ </a> 这是啥公司","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLBX\">$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ </a> 这是啥公司","text":"$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ 这是啥公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487394222596424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487297457000736,"gmtCreate":1759997568494,"gmtModify":1759997570747,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"黄教主的发言真的很有水平","listText":"黄教主的发言真的很有水平","text":"黄教主的发言真的很有水平","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487297457000736","repostId":"1108099210","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108099210","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1759964825,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108099210?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-09 07:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋：近半年AI需求大增，英伟达参投马斯克的xAI，可惜没投更多，对OpenAI也这样遗憾","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108099210","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周三媒体称，xAI寻求融资200亿美元，英伟达将投20亿。英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次力挺人工智能需求强劲的观点，并确认了英伟达参投马斯克旗下初创xAI的消息。黄仁勋提到AI需求激增后，英伟达股价周三扭转三连跌的势头，收涨超2%。对于两周前公布的英伟达千亿美元投资OpenAI计划，黄仁勋认为只是遗憾没投更多。\"英伟达上月宣布，计划未来十年向OpenAI共计投资1000亿美元，支持OpenAI部署需要10千兆瓦电力的英伟达系统，相当于400万至500万个GPU。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>黄仁勋说，Blackwell的需求“非常非常高”，我们正处于新工业革命的开端；几乎所有马斯克参与的事都想参与其中；对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>投资OpenAI的唯一遗憾是没投更多；对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>协议给OpenAI多达10%股份感到吃惊。谈到中美AI竞争，他认为中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先。周三媒体称，xAI寻求融资200亿美元，英伟达将投20亿。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次力挺人工智能（AI）需求强劲的观点，并确认了英伟达参投马斯克旗下初创xAI的消息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间10月8日周三的媒体采访中，黄仁勋表示，过去六个月AI计算需求大幅上升，英伟达新一代架构Blackwell的芯片需求“非常非常高”。他认为这标志着“新一轮工业革命”开始。对于英伟达投资xAI，黄仁勋表示，唯一的遗憾是没给马斯克更多投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋提到AI需求激增后，英伟达股价周三扭转三连跌的势头，收涨超2%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7049f7a2b91ac4f840207b7f6788350a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于英伟达的竞争对手AMD本周宣布与OpenAI达成大规模的芯片供应协议，黄仁勋称该交易“巧妙”但令人吃惊，因为AMD向OpenAI提供了相当于10%AMD股权的认股权证。对于两周前公布的英伟达千亿美元投资OpenAI计划，黄仁勋认为只是遗憾没投更多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业内分析师预计，到2026年，全球的AI基础设施合计支出可能达到2万亿美元。AI模型正在从提供简单问答向拥有复杂的推理能力演进，这推动了计算需求呈指数级增长。</p><h2 id=\"ai-blackwell\">AI计算需求激增 Blackwell芯片供不应求</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周三，被问到投资者最常问什么问题时，黄仁勋强调：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“今年、特别是过去六个月，计算需求大幅增长。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋解释称，AI推理模型正使用指数级的计算能力，但同时也看到指数级的需求增长，因为其结果非常出色。他说：“AI已经足够智能，人人都想用它。我们现在同时看到两个指数级增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达最先进的Blackwell图形处理器（GPU）需求尤其旺盛。该芯片拥有2080亿个晶体管和全新AI加速技术，已成为从OpenAI的ChatGPT到其他AI模型数据中心的核心支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说，“对Blackwell的需求非常非常高”，还说&#34;我认为我们正处于新一轮建设的开端，新工业革命的开端。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达上月宣布，计划未来十年向OpenAI共计投资1000亿美元，支持OpenAI部署需要10千兆瓦电力的英伟达系统，相当于400万至500万个GPU。</p><h2 id=\"20-x-ai\">英伟达据称20亿美元参与xAI融资轮</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周三有媒体报道，xAI正寻求筹集约200亿美元资金，英伟达将投资20亿美元。该融资包括股权和债务，通过特殊目的工具购买英伟达处理器并租给xAI用于其Colossus 2项目。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该媒体获悉，xAI的融资将分为约75亿美元股权和高达125亿美元债务。xAI今年早些时候已通过股权和债务融资约100亿美元，但鉴于今年6月有报道援引财务数据称，xAI每月大概烧钱10亿美元，该公司仍需追加数十亿美元资金投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋周三对另一媒体确认了英伟达投资xAI，称：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我对他们（xAI）提供的融资机会感到非常兴奋。我们已经是xAI的投资者，我对xAI的唯一遗憾是没有给他（马斯克）更多资金。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋高度评价马斯克的创业经历，称这位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和SpaceX的创始人擅长打造变革性的公司。他表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“几乎所有埃隆（·马斯克）参与的事，你都真的想参与其中。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"amd-open-ai\">对AMD协议给OpenAI股份感到吃惊 遗憾投资OpenAI不够多</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于AMD本周一宣布的与OpenAI多年合作协议，黄仁勋表示吃惊。根据协议，OpenAI承诺购买6千兆瓦（GW）芯片，包括AMD即将推出的MI450系列，作为交换，OpenAI将获得最多1.6亿股AMD认股权证。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“考虑到他们对下一代产品如此兴奋，这（协议）真是富有想象力，而且独一无二，令人吃惊。我很惊讶，他们竟然在产品还没开发出来之前就放弃了10%的公司股份。无论如何，我想这很巧妙。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AMD股价自宣布该协议以来大幅上涨，本周累计涨幅达35%。该交易挑战了英伟达在AI芯片行业的主导地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说，英伟达对OpenAI的投资同OpenAI与AMD 的交易“截然不同”，因为它允许英伟达直接向OpenAI出售产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">被问到OpenAI如何为与英伟达的交易筹集资金时，黄仁勋表示，OpenAI“现在还没钱”，“首先要通过他们正在成倍增长的收入、股权或债务来筹资。他们给了我们机会，让我们在时机成熟时与其他投资者一起投资。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋同时表达了对英伟达投资OpenAI不足的遗憾。他说：“我们之前投资OpenAI后，唯一的遗憾就是没有投更多。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋表示，他认为云服务商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a> 是英伟达近期几项“非常出色的投资”之一。“他们是真正特别的公司，他们正在构建，他们是我们生态系统的一部分，正在为世界构建 AI 基础设施。”</p><h2 id=\"ai\">AI竞争：中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在谈及AI竞争格局时，黄仁勋表示美国目前“领先不多”。他指出，中国在建设支持AI所需电力方面的速度远超美国。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说：“中国在能源方面遥遥领先。” 他认为AI行业需要在电网之外建设新的发电能力，以快速满足需求并保护消费者免受电价上涨影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋建议数据中心应配备天然气发电设备，未来可能使用核电。他表示：“我们应该投资几乎所有可能的发电方式。数据中心自发电比接入电网移动更快，我们必须这样做。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">按照与英伟达达成的协议，OpenAI计划建设10GW的数据中心。这一容量相当于800万美国家庭全年的耗电量，或者等于2024年夏季纽约市的峰值基准电力需求量，凸显了AI行业对能源的巨大需求。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1700700604709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄仁勋：近半年AI需求大增，英伟达参投马斯克的xAI，可惜没投更多，对OpenAI也这样遗憾</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄仁勋：近半年AI需求大增，英伟达参投马斯克的xAI，可惜没投更多，对OpenAI也这样遗憾\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-09 07:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756804><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>黄仁勋说，Blackwell的需求“非常非常高”，我们正处于新工业革命的开端；几乎所有马斯克参与的事都想参与其中；对英伟达投资OpenAI的唯一遗憾是没投更多；对AMD协议给OpenAI多达10%股份感到吃惊。谈到中美AI竞争，他认为中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先。周三媒体称，xAI寻求融资200亿美元，英伟达将投20亿。英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次力挺人工智能（AI）需求强劲的观点，并确认了英伟达参投...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756804\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6954d1dc2b34c5f605b752cf346a1934","relate_stocks":{"IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4605":"半导体精选","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","BK4608":"AI应用概念股","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU1035775433.USD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU2931357623.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS 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US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756804","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108099210","content_text":"黄仁勋说，Blackwell的需求“非常非常高”，我们正处于新工业革命的开端；几乎所有马斯克参与的事都想参与其中；对英伟达投资OpenAI的唯一遗憾是没投更多；对AMD协议给OpenAI多达10%股份感到吃惊。谈到中美AI竞争，他认为中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先。周三媒体称，xAI寻求融资200亿美元，英伟达将投20亿。英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次力挺人工智能（AI）需求强劲的观点，并确认了英伟达参投马斯克旗下初创xAI的消息。美东时间10月8日周三的媒体采访中，黄仁勋表示，过去六个月AI计算需求大幅上升，英伟达新一代架构Blackwell的芯片需求“非常非常高”。他认为这标志着“新一轮工业革命”开始。对于英伟达投资xAI，黄仁勋表示，唯一的遗憾是没给马斯克更多投资。黄仁勋提到AI需求激增后，英伟达股价周三扭转三连跌的势头，收涨超2%。对于英伟达的竞争对手AMD本周宣布与OpenAI达成大规模的芯片供应协议，黄仁勋称该交易“巧妙”但令人吃惊，因为AMD向OpenAI提供了相当于10%AMD股权的认股权证。对于两周前公布的英伟达千亿美元投资OpenAI计划，黄仁勋认为只是遗憾没投更多。业内分析师预计，到2026年，全球的AI基础设施合计支出可能达到2万亿美元。AI模型正在从提供简单问答向拥有复杂的推理能力演进，这推动了计算需求呈指数级增长。AI计算需求激增 Blackwell芯片供不应求本周三，被问到投资者最常问什么问题时，黄仁勋强调：“今年、特别是过去六个月，计算需求大幅增长。”黄仁勋解释称，AI推理模型正使用指数级的计算能力，但同时也看到指数级的需求增长，因为其结果非常出色。他说：“AI已经足够智能，人人都想用它。我们现在同时看到两个指数级增长。”英伟达最先进的Blackwell图形处理器（GPU）需求尤其旺盛。该芯片拥有2080亿个晶体管和全新AI加速技术，已成为从OpenAI的ChatGPT到其他AI模型数据中心的核心支撑。黄仁勋说，“对Blackwell的需求非常非常高”，还说\"我认为我们正处于新一轮建设的开端，新工业革命的开端。\"英伟达上月宣布，计划未来十年向OpenAI共计投资1000亿美元，支持OpenAI部署需要10千兆瓦电力的英伟达系统，相当于400万至500万个GPU。英伟达据称20亿美元参与xAI融资轮本周三有媒体报道，xAI正寻求筹集约200亿美元资金，英伟达将投资20亿美元。该融资包括股权和债务，通过特殊目的工具购买英伟达处理器并租给xAI用于其Colossus 2项目。该媒体获悉，xAI的融资将分为约75亿美元股权和高达125亿美元债务。xAI今年早些时候已通过股权和债务融资约100亿美元，但鉴于今年6月有报道援引财务数据称，xAI每月大概烧钱10亿美元，该公司仍需追加数十亿美元资金投入。黄仁勋周三对另一媒体确认了英伟达投资xAI，称：“我对他们（xAI）提供的融资机会感到非常兴奋。我们已经是xAI的投资者，我对xAI的唯一遗憾是没有给他（马斯克）更多资金。\"黄仁勋高度评价马斯克的创业经历，称这位特斯拉和SpaceX的创始人擅长打造变革性的公司。他表示：“几乎所有埃隆（·马斯克）参与的事，你都真的想参与其中。”对AMD协议给OpenAI股份感到吃惊 遗憾投资OpenAI不够多对于AMD本周一宣布的与OpenAI多年合作协议，黄仁勋表示吃惊。根据协议，OpenAI承诺购买6千兆瓦（GW）芯片，包括AMD即将推出的MI450系列，作为交换，OpenAI将获得最多1.6亿股AMD认股权证。黄仁勋说：“考虑到他们对下一代产品如此兴奋，这（协议）真是富有想象力，而且独一无二，令人吃惊。我很惊讶，他们竟然在产品还没开发出来之前就放弃了10%的公司股份。无论如何，我想这很巧妙。”AMD股价自宣布该协议以来大幅上涨，本周累计涨幅达35%。该交易挑战了英伟达在AI芯片行业的主导地位。黄仁勋说，英伟达对OpenAI的投资同OpenAI与AMD 的交易“截然不同”，因为它允许英伟达直接向OpenAI出售产品。被问到OpenAI如何为与英伟达的交易筹集资金时，黄仁勋表示，OpenAI“现在还没钱”，“首先要通过他们正在成倍增长的收入、股权或债务来筹资。他们给了我们机会，让我们在时机成熟时与其他投资者一起投资。”黄仁勋同时表达了对英伟达投资OpenAI不足的遗憾。他说：“我们之前投资OpenAI后，唯一的遗憾就是没有投更多。”黄仁勋表示，他认为云服务商CoreWeave 是英伟达近期几项“非常出色的投资”之一。“他们是真正特别的公司，他们正在构建，他们是我们生态系统的一部分，正在为世界构建 AI 基础设施。”AI竞争：中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先在谈及AI竞争格局时，黄仁勋表示美国目前“领先不多”。他指出，中国在建设支持AI所需电力方面的速度远超美国。黄仁勋说：“中国在能源方面遥遥领先。” 他认为AI行业需要在电网之外建设新的发电能力，以快速满足需求并保护消费者免受电价上涨影响。黄仁勋建议数据中心应配备天然气发电设备，未来可能使用核电。他表示：“我们应该投资几乎所有可能的发电方式。数据中心自发电比接入电网移动更快，我们必须这样做。”按照与英伟达达成的协议，OpenAI计划建设10GW的数据中心。这一容量相当于800万美国家庭全年的耗电量，或者等于2024年夏季纽约市的峰值基准电力需求量，凸显了AI行业对能源的巨大需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":486318699307304,"gmtCreate":1759759012419,"gmtModify":1759759014575,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"确实是这样，就看什么时候破","listText":"确实是这样，就看什么时候破","text":"确实是这样，就看什么时候破","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/486318699307304","repostId":"2573712622","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2573712622","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1759735646,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2573712622?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-06 15:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI泡沫越吹越大？英伟达式“投资循环”被质疑加剧市场风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2573712622","media":"头部科技","summary":"文丨星空英伟达承诺向OpenAI投资1000亿美元，让投资者们普遍感到担忧。主流观点认为，英伟达投资客户是“循环”交易。在整个AI泡沫形成、膨胀的过程中，英伟达资金到底起了多大的作用？Coreweave还曾与英伟达签署一项价值63亿美元的协议。Coreweave迄今已从英伟达手中购买25万块GPU，当中大部分是H100 Hopper型号，单块售价高达3万美元。Lambda正是英伟达所说的“新云企业”。不难猜测，英伟达虽然慷慨投资英国，但当中的大部分资金仍会回流英伟达。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153110672v163v9p46tlnnak\"/><p>文丨星空</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>承诺向OpenAI投资1000亿美元，让投资者们普遍感到担忧。</p><p>他们认为，目前AI金融泡沫越吹越大，无论是AI上市公司还是非上市公司，对比估值、收入和盈利，美国AI的发展模式根本站不住脚。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153114081v1639h1zbv8zyhf\"/><p>主流观点认为，英伟达投资客户是“循环”交易。在许多行业，供应商融资有一定的合理性，但这种“循环”交易可能会导致投资者误判，对AI的实际需求过度乐观。</p><p>在过往的科技泡沫中，收入“循环返程”以及科技公司为自己的客户融资，在行业高速发展时起到助推作用，但当泡沫破裂时，损害也会加重。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153116732v163fchtixt9dr7\"/><p><strong>破解AI背后的资金循环网络</strong></p><p>就目前来看，在英伟达营收中，由融资驱动带来的营收占比很低，但英伟达毕竟是全球市值最高的上市公司，由于它的市场地位超然，即使是最小的失误，也可能影响估值，进而动摇整个金融市场乃至整个经济。</p><p>在整个AI泡沫形成、膨胀的过程中，英伟达资金到底起了多大的作用？目前无法准确评估。英伟达已经达成多项融资交易，当中许多交易看起来规模很小，不足以被公司视为“重大事项”，所以无须在财报中披露，但将这些交易加起来，影响力可能极大。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153117997v1632yivhwosxmg\"/><p>英伟达投资OpenAI，OpenAI采购云服务商提供的服务，服务商又向英伟达采购GPU，交易如此复杂，要理清资金流向绝非易事，当中可能埋下巨大隐患。</p><p>在英伟达的“循环”网络中，最引人注目的不只有OpenAI，还有Coreweave，英伟达目前持有该公司7%的股份，按当前估值计算，这部分股权的价值约为30亿美元，Coreweave既是英伟达客户，也为OpenAI提供数据中心算力支持。</p><p>当企业获得英伟达投资，除了资金本身外，还因为英伟达持有这些公司的股份，获得背书，从而能用更低的<span>利率</span>融资。Seaport Global Securities分析师杰伊・戈德堡（Jay Goldberg）认为，此类交易就如同个人让父母成为抵押贷款的共同担保人，能让贷款方更有信心收回资金。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153124573v163ubzcxbghjdo\"/><p>以前，对于以数据中心项目进行融资的初创企业而言，贷款利率往往高达15%；如果是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>这类规模庞大、根基稳固的大型企业，利率往往只有6%-9%。有了英伟达的背书，OpenAI与Coreweave得以降低借贷利率，使之接近微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>的水平。</p><p>Coreweave还曾与英伟达签署一项价值63亿美元的协议。按照协议规定，对于Coreweave无法出售给其他客户的云算力，英伟达有义务全部收购。此外，英伟达还曾承诺在四年内，向Coreweave支付13亿美元，用于购买云计算服务。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153127786v1635f79oyxm1xo\"/><p>Coreweave迄今已从英伟达手中购买25万块GPU，当中大部分是H100 Hopper型号，单块售价高达3万美元。也就是说，仅在购买这些芯片时，Coreweave便向英伟达支付了75亿美元。</p><p>从本质上讲，英伟达对Coreweave的投资，最终会以营收的形式回流到英伟达自身。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/5ztLIayvaW37uAdHgjogvx9ZPibaZO7edzSeqVtKslrcepgJ3eIb5zQ6WslB58LbPWQxttIZFggrdciamWry5r9w/640?wx_fmt=other&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1&amp;randomid=ij04wmzx&amp;tp=webp#imgIndex=6\"/><p><strong>英伟达的投资秘密</strong></p><p>不只如此，英伟达还打造所谓的“新云企业”（neo-cloud companies），与它们签署协议。“新云”服务商既不完全是云，也不完全是数据中心，而是介于二者之间。</p><p>今年夏天，英伟达同意向Lambda租赁算力，四年耗资约13亿美元，合作模式与Coreweave类似，算力由1万块英伟达AI芯片支撑。双方还有另一项协议，价值2亿美元，英伟达承诺未来再向Lambda租赁8000块芯片。Lambda正是英伟达所说的“新云企业”。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153139216v163uz9a9uxhibr\"/><p>要知道，Lambda出售给英伟达使用的芯片是借款购买的，这笔资金又是Lambda用自己的GPU作为抵押借得的，这样的交易被许多人认为是“泡沫”的证据。</p><p>除了OpenAI和Coreweave，英伟达还持有许多其它上市公司的股份，这些公司或者采购英伟达GPU，或者从事芯片技术研发，当中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a>、高性能计算企业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APLD\">Applied Digital</a>、云服务公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">Nebius</a> Group、生物科技公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RXRX\">Recursion</a> Pharmaceuticals。</p><p>就在前不久，英伟达还以50亿美元购得<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>5%股份。月初时，英伟达承诺将向英国AI初创企业投资20亿英镑（约27亿美元），当中5亿英镑用于建设Nscale数据中心，该中心预计将采用英伟达芯片。</p><p>不难猜测，英伟达虽然慷慨投资英国，但当中的大部分资金仍会回流英伟达。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153145647v163iqujqhe4cpf\"/><p>英伟达旗下的投资分支名叫NVentures。2024年，NVentures向全球AI初创企业投入约10亿美元，较2022年大幅增长。</p><p>根据华尔街咨询公司NewStreet Research的估算，英伟达每向OpenAI投资10亿美元，就能通过GPU销售或者租赁获得35亿美元营收。</p><p>需要注意的是，OpenAI只是租用英伟达芯片，并非直接购买，如此一来，OpenAI就可以避免芯片折旧带来的巨额费用，有助于OpenAI减轻财务压力。为什么英伟达愿意承担折旧成本？很简单，如果AI需求低迷，英伟达GPU将会陷入无人问津的处境。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153146303v163k4koh39608y\"/><p><strong>泡沫担忧与OpenAI的自信</strong></p><p>从更长的时间尺度看，当前的AI热潮与互联网泡沫相似。想当年，北电、朗讯、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>等电信设备商也曾向初创企业、电信公司提供贷款，帮助它们采购自家设备。2001年泡沫破裂前，思科、北电向客户提供的融资金额已经占到公司年度营收的10%，五大电信设备商提供的融资总额，超过<span>净利润</span>总和的123%。</p><p>当泡沫破灭，电信设备商出现大量坏账，由于贷款过多，泡沫破灭后的损失远超预估。在之后的10年里，网络设备企业的市值蒸发90%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153152312v1638n17ohi8qko\"/><p>更值得参考的案例是Global Crossing，它曾是赫赫有名的光纤巨头，直接参与“营收循环造假”。为了达成营收预期，类似Global Crossing这样的公司先向另一家企业支付费用，让它们购买服务，拿到资金之后，这些企业再向Global Crossing购买设备。最终游戏无法进行下去，Global Crossing宣告破产。</p><p>可能正是因为历史记忆如此深刻，分析师对英伟达和OpenAI的交易保持警惕。Seaport Global分析师戈德堡（Goldberg）指出，两家公司的交易带有“循环融资”的味道，是“泡沫式行为”。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153153070v163sqdufhwett3\"/><p>作为AI的领军企业，OpenAI当然依旧乐观。</p><p>OpenAI CFO 莎拉・弗里尔(Sarah Friar)表示，今年公司的营收预计将达130亿美元。她说：“当互联网刚刚起步时，人们一直觉得我们建设得太多太多。但看看现在，还有人说多吗？”</p><p>8月份，OpenAI联合创始人奥特曼曾说，公司宁可承受亏损，也要将增长和投资放在优先位置。</p><p>无论OpenAI怎么鼓吹，怀疑者仍然越来越多。Bespoke投资集团在报告中表示：“对于AI技术的前景，即使是不那么怀疑的人也存在隐忧，整个AI产业似乎成了自我循环。提供资金并让资金转化为营收，如果英伟达靠这样的方式才能增长，那整个生态是否能持续便存在疑虑。”</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251006153209373v16301xle86051u\"/><p>One Point BFG Wealth Partners公司首席投资官彼得・布克瓦尔（Peter Boockvar）表示，当英伟达与OpenAI的交易公布之后，20世纪90年代互联网泡沫时期的企业名字便在他脑海回荡，而且当前的AI投资比当年大得多。</p><p>布克瓦尔指出：“要让规模庞大的试验顺利推进，且不能造成巨额损失，OpenAI和同行必须创造巨额营收与利润，既要支付它们签下的所有债务，同时还要为投资者带来回报。”</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI泡沫越吹越大？英伟达式“投资循环”被质疑加剧市场风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI泡沫越吹越大？英伟达式“投资循环”被质疑加剧市场风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-06 15:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251006153246a6ae905e&s=b><strong>头部科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨星空英伟达承诺向OpenAI投资1000亿美元，让投资者们普遍感到担忧。他们认为，目前AI金融泡沫越吹越大，无论是AI上市公司还是非上市公司，对比估值、收入和盈利，美国AI的发展模式根本站不住脚。主流观点认为，英伟达投资客户是“循环”交易。在许多行业，供应商融资有一定的合理性，但这种“循环”交易可能会导致投资者误判，对AI的实际需求过度乐观。在过往的科技泡沫中，收入“循环返程”以及科技公司为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251006153246a6ae905e&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","NVDD":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","NVDY":"YIELDMAX NVDA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) 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11:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"张忆东：7月以来港股利空已接近尾声，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2564349768","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"兴证证券张忆东认为，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声，包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看，中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>兴证证券张忆东认为，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声，包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看，中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1741814835\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心观点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一、回顾：2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映，2025年7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声。</strong>从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。2025年6月底到8月底，A股持续上涨，在全球表现优异；同期港股表现相对乏力，主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股资金面：2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境，将有望改善。</strong>当前，港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间，金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%，处于正常的历史区间范围，后续，香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股基本面：2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修，但中报业绩期之后将迎转机。</strong>恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到8月31日的2.35%，外卖市场竞争加剧、互联网的利润预期下调是主因。截至2025年8月29日，港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调，更关键是，阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后，即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>二、中长期展望：走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛。</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化</strong>，<strong>长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路，中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈，顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。</strong>有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”，强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序，从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演，实现震荡向上的长牛。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾，这是中期行情的关键变量。</strong>政策大力引导中长期资金入市，社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市，存款搬家初见端倪。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中国<strong>AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心。</strong>AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续，全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大：1）</strong>历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预，特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大，有利于外资回流港股和A股。<strong>2）</strong>2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息，四季度美元将走弱，当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面：“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展，对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响。</strong>中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届四中全会，此次会议定调“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三、9月份行情展望：港股补涨动力已积蓄，震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。1）港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨。</strong>从历史维度来看，截至8月29日，恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍，处于2020年7月以来29.9%分位数。<strong>2）港股补涨的动力，中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。</strong>全球股市来看，港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍，仍是全球洼地，明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍；风险溢价角度，恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%，远高于美股-0.64%、日股3.38%、欧股3.35%的风险溢价水平。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>行情节奏上，港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险，但大方向是向上。</strong>1）9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡，但是，牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。警惕美股9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整，或者，美联储超预期没有降息。2）9月初之后，A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力，或导致9月A股行情震荡蓄势。3）历史上看，A股牛市阶段的震荡调整，港股不一定跟随，反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段，港股跟随调整的仅有4次，但在震荡调整阶段，恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。4）卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。美联储四季度大概率要降息，为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困，特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始，降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值，港股性价比强于美股。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1874793998\" style=\"text-align: left;\">报告正文</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>标题引用</strong>：<strong>自古逢秋悲寂寥，我言秋日胜春朝。晴空一鹤排云上，便引诗情到碧霄<em>——刘禹锡《秋词二首·其一》</em></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一、回顾：2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（一）2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股各自精彩、交相辉映</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>回顾去年至今的行情节奏，2024年1季度港股行情相对A股是率先见底反转。</strong>当时港股的卖空金额占比高达30%的历史极端水平，我们基于对中国经济新旧动能切换和宏观政策调控的深刻理解，明确指出海外投资者对中国房地产风险及中国经济过度悲观，发布报告《港股的春天》、战略性看多港股。“9.24行情”之前，A股的表现明显落后于港股；“9.24”行情期间，A股和港股携手向上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>经过2024年四季度的震荡巩固，今年1月份开始港股率先走强，前5个月，港股表现明显强于A股。</strong>不论是一季度的互联网代表的科技行情，还是二季度新消费和创新药行情都很精彩，同时，港股绩优股、价值股也较A股相对强势，AH股溢价指数持续收窄截止到6月底达到120左右，创近年的新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2025年6月底至今，A股持续上涨，在全球表现优异。同期港股表现相对乏力，主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76a135107c2ba799203066194045a5\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（二）2025年7月以来，制约港股的不利因素影响接近尾声</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. 港股资金面：2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境，将有望改善</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年4月份特朗普政府实施所谓“对等关税”政策后，美国遭遇“股债汇”三杀，港币兑美元汇率触及7.75的强方保证。在联系汇率制度的约束下，香港金管局被动注入大量港币流动性，香港银行体系的结余资金从2025年4月底440亿港元上升到2025年5月8日的1740亿港元，流动性的骤然宽裕导致HIBOR利率下降至接近0的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于港币和美元之间的利差扩大至4个百分点左右的水平，卖出港币和买入美元的套息交易蜂拥而至，叠加美元反弹，进而，导致港币持续贬值，终于在2025年6月24日触及弱方保证7.85。于是，与2025年5月初的操作相反，金管局从2025年6月27日开始回收过剩流动性，由于回笼速度较慢，前期流动性依然维持过剩状态，HIBOR继续处于低位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年8月以来，银行系统的结余已经降至比2025年4月底略高的水平，这推动了HIBOR利率从0附近快速上行；叠加2025年8月22日Jackson Hole会议之后，美联储9月降息预期抬升，进一步触发了套息交易的集中平仓，增加了市场对港币的资金需求，HIBOR利率飙升至4%附近。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>当前，港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间，金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%，处于正常的历史区间范围。后续，香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3bc939255d02ac516b3002503da7cb3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2. 港股基本面：2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修，但中报业绩期之后将迎转机</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期（根据彭博数据），从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到2025年8月31日的2.35%。外卖市场的竞争加剧、港股第一大权重板块互联网的利润预期下调，是恒生指数EPS下调的主要原因。</strong>范围更广的港股通成分股盈利预期变化不大，截至2025年8月29日，港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伴随反内卷的政策导向的深入，监管当局对互联网巨头们进行约谈、2025年10月15日起施行新修订《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》对平台内卷进行限制，即时零售的内卷有望改善。更关键是，阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后，即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。我们预判，四季度开始，互联网基本面的叙事逻辑将从“外卖内卷”转向“AI赋能”，业绩预期有望改善。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dbd0d2b75118b77b3f375d05cde8d8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">二、中长期展望：走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（一）中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化，长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈，顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。</strong>有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”，强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序，从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演，实现震荡向上的长牛。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2023年中央金融工作会议，首次系统阐述“坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路”。“中国特色金融发展之路，与西方金融模式有本质区别”。“坚持以人民为中心的价值取向，坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2024年9月26日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出“努力提振资本市场”，2024年12月9日以及2025年2月28日召开的中共中央政治局会议均强调“稳住股市”。2025年4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议强调“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前A股走强，进一步强化了中国股市长牛的逻辑，包括，科技创新的发展、中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化所带来的战略机遇期、中国社会财富从避险资产向权益资产再配置的逻辑。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">南向资金大幅流入港股，表面原因是港股行情的赚钱效应提升，港股市场生态环境发生改变，优质企业赴港上市，为港股市场注入新鲜血液，提升了市场活力，吸引了南向资金的流入。<strong>更深层的原因是中央金融工作会议之后，国家积极赋能香港、巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位，香港由治及兴。</strong></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/210e2923a4a1a5bffb085ce9a2ca9f68\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"658\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（二）中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾，这是中期行情的关键变量</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2024年以来政策大力引导中长期资金入市，社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市，存款搬家初见端倪。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中央汇金等机构持续增持ETF。根据兴证策略团队统计，汇金重点持仓的ETF自2023年7月以来至2025年7月累计流入资金超过1万亿元。同期，货币当局对其他金融性公司债权从1363亿元提升至2025年6月末的9810亿元。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">政策上调保险资金配置权益类资产比例的上限，险资加速增配权益资产，股票持仓占比升至近年来新高。截至今年H1，保险资金持有的股票+基金占比升至13.5%，处于近年来的较高水平。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在存款、银行理财、债券等各类利率趋势下行的“资产荒”背景下，居民存款配置权益资产的概率较高。7月，非银存款单月新增2.14万亿元，创2015年有数据记录以来的第二高水平，仅次于今年2月的2.83万亿元。历史上看，新增非银存款与全A走势相关性较强，反映居民资金的入市行为。截至2025年7月“居民存款与股票总市值之比”这一指标仍在1.7的历史高位。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3127afc8776763b9114c6df900ee833b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"649\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0efc6cef79d36c44ad467dc9d2f240d2\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"820\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（三）中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心，AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3 </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心，并催生了诸多行业性的机会。1）随着DeepSeek带动AI平权推进，叠加国 家政策层面高度支持，国内AI商业化进程有望持续提速，带动行情从上游扩散至 中下游。2）去年末我国六代机亮相、3月我国军舰绕澳大利亚环行展示，到二季 度的台海联合演练、歼10CE在印巴冲突中大放光彩，中国武器持续展现全球竞 争力。地缘冲突背景下国家安全牵引长期军贸需求，中国在国际军贸中的市场空间有望进一步打开。3）中国创新药已经实现从量变到质变的转化，逐渐从“跟跑 者”到“引领者”。中国创新药具备高效率、低成本的开发优势，在热门技术赛道 如ADC、双抗、细胞治疗等具备竞争优势，有望持续展现行业竞争力。4）2025 年人形机器人产业浪潮已至，中国供应链完整，高水平技工和工程师规模占优，大规模量产能力强。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9122cc97a6a3cba9074c0adfcc6c1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"755\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球AI模型厂商进入集中发力期，以ChatGPT为代表的AI应用以前所未有的速度侵占用户时长，ChatGPT截至2025年7月26日已达3.39亿日活跃用户，接近谷歌搜索的1/5。<strong>海外龙头二季报业绩印证AI应用商业化加速潜力，</strong>美股AI龙头公司二季报中AI的贡献正在加大。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>国内AI在国内大模型迎来更多突破，以及芯片瓶颈松动的环境下，AI商业化进程有望提速。</strong>DeepSeek-V3.1正式发布继续推进下一代高性能硬件和软件优化，尤其是，未来基于DeepSeek模型有望更多应用国产算力芯片，这将进一步推动国内AI产业链发展。腾讯、腾讯音乐和快手等互联网公司的中报业绩预期，AI赋能互联网已经拉开序幕。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b4629d686ce3ef58459cc0633f9a1e3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"504\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（四）随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续，全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预，特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大，有利于外资回流港股和A股。</strong>为了配合美国的高财政赤字、高政府债务杠杆率，特朗普不惜频频干预美联储独立性、呼吁降息和弱美元。美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议发言，已经暗示降息以呵护经济下行的必要性：就业市场反映出下行风险，基准情况下关税对价格的影响是一次性的，工资上涨和长期通胀预期上行的风险较小，货币政策处于限制性区域，基准前景和风险平衡的变动可能需要调整政策立场。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654060d9bc2dbbcf0db375bae74853f0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息，四季度美元将走弱，当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。</strong>从国际中介持股占比来反映港股市场的外资动向，从4年前的50%以上，持续下降到当前的43%左右，开始出现企稳迹象。中国股市赚钱效应的持续性有望提升，从而增强外资回流的信心。此前，外资对中国经济过度悲观，错把美国式大放水作为刺激经济的标准答案，而低估了“中国固本培元式”高质量发展。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8ce6f8292011b7a88d24da1f529520\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（五）中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面：“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展，对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。按照先前经验来看，今年9 月的政治局会议可能将讨论党中央关于制定“十五五”规划建议的初稿，并提请10月份召开的二十届四中全会审议。此次会议定调“十五五”时期是“夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期”，在“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>党中央部署综合整治“内卷式”竞争。</strong>这是解决当前经济发展矛盾的关键举措，是深化经济体制改革的重要保障，也是推动企业实现创新发展、向价值链中高端攀升、不断增强发展韧性的有效路径。不同时代的“供给侧”改革，股市赋能的侧重点不同。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1998年国企改革的侧重点是去产能、解决债务问题、建立现代企业制度，释放企业活力，为新一轮经济增长奠定基础。资本市场赋能体现在，通过IPO及国有股配售、并购重组，帮助国企建立现代企业制度改革，调整国有资产布局，盘活了国有资产，国企改革成为行情重要主线。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本轮“反内卷”聚焦释放创新活力，助力高质量发展。资本市场赋能将更多体现在引导资源向有利于推动创新、提高效率的方向配置。2024年9月26日中共中央政治局会议“支持上市公司并购重组”。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三、9月份行情展望：港股补涨动力已积蓄，震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（一）港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. 港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨，而不是A、H股同时上市的股票。</strong>从历史维度来看，截至2025年8月29日，港股恒生指数预测市盈率目前11.7倍，处于2015年以来59.40%分位数；恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍，仅处于2020年7月以来的29.9%分位数水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a61cdbf8d7682557ccd8b72d91d02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"405\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. </strong>港股补涨的动力，中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球股市来看，港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍，明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍、日本日经225指数20倍、欧元区斯托克50指数16.2倍；风险溢价角度，恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%，相对10年期美债利率的风险溢价在3.8%左右，远高于美股的-0.64%的风险溢价水平，也高于日股3.38%以及欧股3.35%的风险溢价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6c86432ba700decf3eae1aba41bb0d3\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"573\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（二）行情节奏上，港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险，但大方向是向上</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡，但是，牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。</strong>美股当前估值高、VIX过低，警惕美股2025年9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整，或者，美联储超预期没有降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>不过，美联储四季度大概率要降息，卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。</strong>为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困，特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始，降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值，港股性价比强于美股。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60580ba290b8531b73ff5c7e3a83b29\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"382\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>9月初之后，A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。</strong>有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股2025年7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力，或导致2025年9月A股行情震荡蓄势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上看，A股牛市阶段的震荡调整，港股不一定跟随，反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。</strong>从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段，港股跟随调整的仅有4次，但在震荡调整阶段，恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5ca139aa6eda747d9b13df414dcbed1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"882\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>张忆东：7月以来港股利空已接近尾声，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n张忆东：7月以来港股利空已接近尾声，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-04 11:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754903><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>兴证证券张忆东认为，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声，包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看，中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。核心观点一、回顾：2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映，2025年7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声。从2024年中国权益资产启动...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754903\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15c88658aa2ff55014f3e675fdee2a3d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754903","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2564349768","content_text":"兴证证券张忆东认为，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声，包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看，中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。核心观点一、回顾：2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映，2025年7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声。从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。2025年6月底到8月底，A股持续上涨，在全球表现优异；同期港股表现相对乏力，主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。港股资金面：2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境，将有望改善。当前，港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间，金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%，处于正常的历史区间范围，后续，香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。港股基本面：2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修，但中报业绩期之后将迎转机。恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到8月31日的2.35%，外卖市场竞争加剧、互联网的利润预期下调是主因。截至2025年8月29日，港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调，更关键是，阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后，即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。二、中长期展望：走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛。中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化，长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路，中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈，顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”，强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序，从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演，实现震荡向上的长牛。中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾，这是中期行情的关键变量。政策大力引导中长期资金入市，社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市，存款搬家初见端倪。中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心。AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续，全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大：1）历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预，特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大，有利于外资回流港股和A股。2）2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息，四季度美元将走弱，当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面：“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展，对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响。中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届四中全会，此次会议定调“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。三、9月份行情展望：港股补涨动力已积蓄，震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。1）港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨。从历史维度来看，截至8月29日，恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍，处于2020年7月以来29.9%分位数。2）港股补涨的动力，中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。全球股市来看，港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍，仍是全球洼地，明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍；风险溢价角度，恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%，远高于美股-0.64%、日股3.38%、欧股3.35%的风险溢价水平。行情节奏上，港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险，但大方向是向上。1）9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡，但是，牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。警惕美股9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整，或者，美联储超预期没有降息。2）9月初之后，A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力，或导致9月A股行情震荡蓄势。3）历史上看，A股牛市阶段的震荡调整，港股不一定跟随，反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段，港股跟随调整的仅有4次，但在震荡调整阶段，恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。4）卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。美联储四季度大概率要降息，为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困，特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始，降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值，港股性价比强于美股。报告正文标题引用：自古逢秋悲寂寥，我言秋日胜春朝。晴空一鹤排云上，便引诗情到碧霄——刘禹锡《秋词二首·其一》一、回顾：2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声（一）2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股各自精彩、交相辉映从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。回顾去年至今的行情节奏，2024年1季度港股行情相对A股是率先见底反转。当时港股的卖空金额占比高达30%的历史极端水平，我们基于对中国经济新旧动能切换和宏观政策调控的深刻理解，明确指出海外投资者对中国房地产风险及中国经济过度悲观，发布报告《港股的春天》、战略性看多港股。“9.24行情”之前，A股的表现明显落后于港股；“9.24”行情期间，A股和港股携手向上。经过2024年四季度的震荡巩固，今年1月份开始港股率先走强，前5个月，港股表现明显强于A股。不论是一季度的互联网代表的科技行情，还是二季度新消费和创新药行情都很精彩，同时，港股绩优股、价值股也较A股相对强势，AH股溢价指数持续收窄截止到6月底达到120左右，创近年的新低。2025年6月底至今，A股持续上涨，在全球表现优异。同期港股表现相对乏力，主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。（二）2025年7月以来，制约港股的不利因素影响接近尾声1. 港股资金面：2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境，将有望改善2025年4月份特朗普政府实施所谓“对等关税”政策后，美国遭遇“股债汇”三杀，港币兑美元汇率触及7.75的强方保证。在联系汇率制度的约束下，香港金管局被动注入大量港币流动性，香港银行体系的结余资金从2025年4月底440亿港元上升到2025年5月8日的1740亿港元，流动性的骤然宽裕导致HIBOR利率下降至接近0的水平。由于港币和美元之间的利差扩大至4个百分点左右的水平，卖出港币和买入美元的套息交易蜂拥而至，叠加美元反弹，进而，导致港币持续贬值，终于在2025年6月24日触及弱方保证7.85。于是，与2025年5月初的操作相反，金管局从2025年6月27日开始回收过剩流动性，由于回笼速度较慢，前期流动性依然维持过剩状态，HIBOR继续处于低位。2025年8月以来，银行系统的结余已经降至比2025年4月底略高的水平，这推动了HIBOR利率从0附近快速上行；叠加2025年8月22日Jackson Hole会议之后，美联储9月降息预期抬升，进一步触发了套息交易的集中平仓，增加了市场对港币的资金需求，HIBOR利率飙升至4%附近。当前，港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间，金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%，处于正常的历史区间范围。后续，香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。2. 港股基本面：2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修，但中报业绩期之后将迎转机恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期（根据彭博数据），从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到2025年8月31日的2.35%。外卖市场的竞争加剧、港股第一大权重板块互联网的利润预期下调，是恒生指数EPS下调的主要原因。范围更广的港股通成分股盈利预期变化不大，截至2025年8月29日，港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调。伴随反内卷的政策导向的深入，监管当局对互联网巨头们进行约谈、2025年10月15日起施行新修订《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》对平台内卷进行限制，即时零售的内卷有望改善。更关键是，阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后，即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。我们预判，四季度开始，互联网基本面的叙事逻辑将从“外卖内卷”转向“AI赋能”，业绩预期有望改善。二、中长期展望：走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛（一）中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化，长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈，顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”，强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序，从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演，实现震荡向上的长牛。2023年中央金融工作会议，首次系统阐述“坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路”。“中国特色金融发展之路，与西方金融模式有本质区别”。“坚持以人民为中心的价值取向，坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨”。2024年9月26日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出“努力提振资本市场”，2024年12月9日以及2025年2月28日召开的中共中央政治局会议均强调“稳住股市”。2025年4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议强调“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”。当前A股走强，进一步强化了中国股市长牛的逻辑，包括，科技创新的发展、中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化所带来的战略机遇期、中国社会财富从避险资产向权益资产再配置的逻辑。南向资金大幅流入港股，表面原因是港股行情的赚钱效应提升，港股市场生态环境发生改变，优质企业赴港上市，为港股市场注入新鲜血液，提升了市场活力，吸引了南向资金的流入。更深层的原因是中央金融工作会议之后，国家积极赋能香港、巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位，香港由治及兴。（二）中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾，这是中期行情的关键变量2024年以来政策大力引导中长期资金入市，社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市，存款搬家初见端倪。中央汇金等机构持续增持ETF。根据兴证策略团队统计，汇金重点持仓的ETF自2023年7月以来至2025年7月累计流入资金超过1万亿元。同期，货币当局对其他金融性公司债权从1363亿元提升至2025年6月末的9810亿元。政策上调保险资金配置权益类资产比例的上限，险资加速增配权益资产，股票持仓占比升至近年来新高。截至今年H1，保险资金持有的股票+基金占比升至13.5%，处于近年来的较高水平。在存款、银行理财、债券等各类利率趋势下行的“资产荒”背景下，居民存款配置权益资产的概率较高。7月，非银存款单月新增2.14万亿元，创2015年有数据记录以来的第二高水平，仅次于今年2月的2.83万亿元。历史上看，新增非银存款与全A走势相关性较强，反映居民资金的入市行为。截至2025年7月“居民存款与股票总市值之比”这一指标仍在1.7的历史高位。（三）中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心，AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3 中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心，并催生了诸多行业性的机会。1）随着DeepSeek带动AI平权推进，叠加国 家政策层面高度支持，国内AI商业化进程有望持续提速，带动行情从上游扩散至 中下游。2）去年末我国六代机亮相、3月我国军舰绕澳大利亚环行展示，到二季 度的台海联合演练、歼10CE在印巴冲突中大放光彩，中国武器持续展现全球竞 争力。地缘冲突背景下国家安全牵引长期军贸需求，中国在国际军贸中的市场空间有望进一步打开。3）中国创新药已经实现从量变到质变的转化，逐渐从“跟跑 者”到“引领者”。中国创新药具备高效率、低成本的开发优势，在热门技术赛道 如ADC、双抗、细胞治疗等具备竞争优势，有望持续展现行业竞争力。4）2025 年人形机器人产业浪潮已至，中国供应链完整，高水平技工和工程师规模占优，大规模量产能力强。AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。全球AI模型厂商进入集中发力期，以ChatGPT为代表的AI应用以前所未有的速度侵占用户时长，ChatGPT截至2025年7月26日已达3.39亿日活跃用户，接近谷歌搜索的1/5。海外龙头二季报业绩印证AI应用商业化加速潜力，美股AI龙头公司二季报中AI的贡献正在加大。国内AI在国内大模型迎来更多突破，以及芯片瓶颈松动的环境下，AI商业化进程有望提速。DeepSeek-V3.1正式发布继续推进下一代高性能硬件和软件优化，尤其是，未来基于DeepSeek模型有望更多应用国产算力芯片，这将进一步推动国内AI产业链发展。腾讯、腾讯音乐和快手等互联网公司的中报业绩预期，AI赋能互联网已经拉开序幕。（四）随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续，全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预，特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大，有利于外资回流港股和A股。为了配合美国的高财政赤字、高政府债务杠杆率，特朗普不惜频频干预美联储独立性、呼吁降息和弱美元。美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议发言，已经暗示降息以呵护经济下行的必要性：就业市场反映出下行风险，基准情况下关税对价格的影响是一次性的，工资上涨和长期通胀预期上行的风险较小，货币政策处于限制性区域，基准前景和风险平衡的变动可能需要调整政策立场。2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息，四季度美元将走弱，当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。从国际中介持股占比来反映港股市场的外资动向，从4年前的50%以上，持续下降到当前的43%左右，开始出现企稳迹象。中国股市赚钱效应的持续性有望提升，从而增强外资回流的信心。此前，外资对中国经济过度悲观，错把美国式大放水作为刺激经济的标准答案，而低估了“中国固本培元式”高质量发展。（五）中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面：“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展，对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。按照先前经验来看，今年9 月的政治局会议可能将讨论党中央关于制定“十五五”规划建议的初稿，并提请10月份召开的二十届四中全会审议。此次会议定调“十五五”时期是“夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期”，在“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。党中央部署综合整治“内卷式”竞争。这是解决当前经济发展矛盾的关键举措，是深化经济体制改革的重要保障，也是推动企业实现创新发展、向价值链中高端攀升、不断增强发展韧性的有效路径。不同时代的“供给侧”改革，股市赋能的侧重点不同。1998年国企改革的侧重点是去产能、解决债务问题、建立现代企业制度，释放企业活力，为新一轮经济增长奠定基础。资本市场赋能体现在，通过IPO及国有股配售、并购重组，帮助国企建立现代企业制度改革，调整国有资产布局，盘活了国有资产，国企改革成为行情重要主线。本轮“反内卷”聚焦释放创新活力，助力高质量发展。资本市场赋能将更多体现在引导资源向有利于推动创新、提高效率的方向配置。2024年9月26日中共中央政治局会议“支持上市公司并购重组”。三、9月份行情展望：港股补涨动力已积蓄，震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开（一）港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。1. 港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨，而不是A、H股同时上市的股票。从历史维度来看，截至2025年8月29日，港股恒生指数预测市盈率目前11.7倍，处于2015年以来59.40%分位数；恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍，仅处于2020年7月以来的29.9%分位数水平。2. 港股补涨的动力，中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。全球股市来看，港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍，明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍、日本日经225指数20倍、欧元区斯托克50指数16.2倍；风险溢价角度，恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%，相对10年期美债利率的风险溢价在3.8%左右，远高于美股的-0.64%的风险溢价水平，也高于日股3.38%以及欧股3.35%的风险溢价。（二）行情节奏上，港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险，但大方向是向上9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡，但是，牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。美股当前估值高、VIX过低，警惕美股2025年9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整，或者，美联储超预期没有降息。不过，美联储四季度大概率要降息，卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困，特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始，降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值，港股性价比强于美股。9月初之后，A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股2025年7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力，或导致2025年9月A股行情震荡蓄势。历史上看，A股牛市阶段的震荡调整，港股不一定跟随，反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段，港股跟随调整的仅有4次，但在震荡调整阶段，恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399006":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1,"HSCEI":1.1,"HSI":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":474424827723864,"gmtCreate":1756858316500,"gmtModify":1756858318167,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"集中公示专利？","listText":"集中公示专利？","text":"集中公示专利？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474424827723864","repostId":"2564383778","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2564383778","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1756798851,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2564383778?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-02 15:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"长城汽车取得储氢瓶及车辆相关专利，能防止内胆屈曲变形和凹陷","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2564383778","media":"市场资讯","summary":"国家知识产权局信息显示，长城汽车股份有限公司取得一项名为“储氢瓶及车辆”的专利，授权公告号 CN 223282887 U，申请日期为 2024 年 11 月。专利摘要显示，本实用新型提供了一种储氢瓶及车辆，本实用新型的储氢瓶，涉及储氢装置技术领域，该储氢瓶包括瓶体内胆和内胆支撑件，其中，瓶体内胆包括第一内胆和第二内胆，第一内胆和第二内胆连接于一起，并能够将内胆支撑件固定于第一内胆和第二内胆围构形成的内胆腔体内。","content":"<html><body><article><p>国家知识产权局信息显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>股份有限公司取得一项名为“储氢瓶及车辆”的专利，授权公告号 CN 223282887 U，申请日期为 2024 年 11 月。</p><p>专利摘要显示，本实用新型提供了一种储氢瓶及车辆，本实用新型的储氢瓶，涉及储氢装置技术领域，该储氢瓶包括瓶体内胆和内胆支撑件，其中，瓶体内胆包括第一内胆和第二内胆，第一内胆和第二内胆连接于一起，并能够将内胆支撑件固定于第一内胆和第二内胆围构形成的内胆腔体内。本实用新型所述的储氢瓶，通过限定瓶体内胆由第一内胆和第二内胆组成，便于内胆支撑件的安装与固定，通过内胆支撑件的设置，能在内胆内部为内胆提供额外的支撑，其能够防止内胆屈曲变形和凹陷，较好的保证储氢瓶在使用过程中保持稳定的形状，从而利于提升车辆的安全性。</p><p>天眼查资料显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">长城汽车</a>股份有限公司，成立于2001年，位于保定市，是一家以从事汽车制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本855894.5933万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，长城汽车股份有限公司共对外投资了74家企业，参与招投标项目2605次，财产线索方面有商标信息5000条，专利信息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可640个。</p><p>声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>长城汽车取得储氢瓶及车辆相关专利，能防止内胆屈曲变形和凹陷</title>\n<style 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月。专利摘要显示，本实用新型提供了一种储氢瓶及车辆，本实用新型的储氢瓶，涉及储氢装置技术领域，该储氢瓶包括瓶体内胆和内胆支撑件，其中，瓶体内胆包括第一内胆和第二内胆，第一内胆和第二内胆连接于一起，并能够将内胆支撑件固定于第一内胆和第二内胆围构形成...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250902155351950e0776&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"82333":"长城汽车-R","601633":"长城汽车","BK1539":"汽车股","02333":"长城汽车","GWLLY":"长城汽车ADR","LU1064130708.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","BK1119":"汽车制造商","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250902155351950e0776&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2564383778","content_text":"国家知识产权局信息显示，长城汽车股份有限公司取得一项名为“储氢瓶及车辆”的专利，授权公告号 CN 223282887 U，申请日期为 2024 年 11 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特么有病啊，大早上一上来就猛砸？这是哪家机构？？？？？！！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/935046345","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3466482702580118","authorId":"3466482702580118","name":"scherzo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/b48571da0323af2b3443672f7bc17a52","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3466482702580118","authorIdStr":"3466482702580118"},"content":"推迟一周公布业绩","text":"推迟一周公布业绩","html":"推迟一周公布业绩"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937880787,"gmtCreate":1574866435949,"gmtModify":1704728712535,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我的小可爱珍宝，感谢2年前你的出现，让我找到了美团点评的工作，然后他就上市了，然后我就赚钱了，我的昵称是GLA，记得吗，这是你喜欢的车，我注册老虎起这个名字，就是要以收益可以买给你一辆GLA哈哈！","listText":"我的小可爱珍宝，感谢2年前你的出现，让我找到了美团点评的工作，然后他就上市了，然后我就赚钱了，我的昵称是GLA，记得吗，这是你喜欢的车，我注册老虎起这个名字，就是要以收益可以买给你一辆GLA哈哈！","text":"我的小可爱珍宝，感谢2年前你的出现，让我找到了美团点评的工作，然后他就上市了，然后我就赚钱了，我的昵称是GLA，记得吗，这是你喜欢的车，我注册老虎起这个名字，就是要以收益可以买给你一辆GLA哈哈！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d96dbd66e925504305ee019ac2f3b95","width":"1125","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937880787","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937696545,"gmtCreate":1574910778287,"gmtModify":1704728806412,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>&nbsp;真有意思，前天一直188，今天一直200，这是怎么做到的？牛人能帮分析下吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>&nbsp;真有意思，前天一直188，今天一直200，这是怎么做到的？牛人能帮分析下吗","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 真有意思，前天一直188，今天一直200，这是怎么做到的？牛人能帮分析下吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937696545","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535030212375204","authorId":"3535030212375204","name":"资本L","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535030212375204","authorIdStr":"3535030212375204"},"content":"菜鸟吗，主力部队在美股，这边直接参考美股价格就可以","text":"菜鸟吗，主力部队在美股，这边直接参考美股价格就可以","html":"菜鸟吗，主力部队在美股，这边直接参考美股价格就可以"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":916746927,"gmtCreate":1579746800069,"gmtModify":1704340351094,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01740\">$新石文化(01740)$</a>&nbsp;割不割？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01740\">$新石文化(01740)$</a>&nbsp;割不割？","text":"$新石文化(01740)$ 割不割？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad4c52dea02c27ac60904223c020354","width":"1080","height":"1515"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916746927","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3523182639820893","authorId":"3523182639820893","name":"4779552b","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3523182639820893","authorIdStr":"3523182639820893"},"content":"这类股票早割早超生。你要学会数学，你现在相对高价留守，跌10%，将来就要从低处涨20%或更多，才能回到你留守的原价。况且这种股票没有潜力。","text":"这类股票早割早超生。你要学会数学，你现在相对高价留守，跌10%，将来就要从低处涨20%或更多，才能回到你留守的原价。况且这种股票没有潜力。","html":"这类股票早割早超生。你要学会数学，你现在相对高价留守，跌10%，将来就要从低处涨20%或更多，才能回到你留守的原价。况且这种股票没有潜力。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487297457000736,"gmtCreate":1759997568494,"gmtModify":1759997570747,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"黄教主的发言真的很有水平","listText":"黄教主的发言真的很有水平","text":"黄教主的发言真的很有水平","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487297457000736","repostId":"1108099210","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108099210","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1759964825,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108099210?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-09 07:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋：近半年AI需求大增，英伟达参投马斯克的xAI，可惜没投更多，对OpenAI也这样遗憾","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108099210","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周三媒体称，xAI寻求融资200亿美元，英伟达将投20亿。英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次力挺人工智能需求强劲的观点，并确认了英伟达参投马斯克旗下初创xAI的消息。黄仁勋提到AI需求激增后，英伟达股价周三扭转三连跌的势头，收涨超2%。对于两周前公布的英伟达千亿美元投资OpenAI计划，黄仁勋认为只是遗憾没投更多。\"英伟达上月宣布，计划未来十年向OpenAI共计投资1000亿美元，支持OpenAI部署需要10千兆瓦电力的英伟达系统，相当于400万至500万个GPU。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>黄仁勋说，Blackwell的需求“非常非常高”，我们正处于新工业革命的开端；几乎所有马斯克参与的事都想参与其中；对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>投资OpenAI的唯一遗憾是没投更多；对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>协议给OpenAI多达10%股份感到吃惊。谈到中美AI竞争，他认为中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先。周三媒体称，xAI寻求融资200亿美元，英伟达将投20亿。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次力挺人工智能（AI）需求强劲的观点，并确认了英伟达参投马斯克旗下初创xAI的消息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间10月8日周三的媒体采访中，黄仁勋表示，过去六个月AI计算需求大幅上升，英伟达新一代架构Blackwell的芯片需求“非常非常高”。他认为这标志着“新一轮工业革命”开始。对于英伟达投资xAI，黄仁勋表示，唯一的遗憾是没给马斯克更多投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋提到AI需求激增后，英伟达股价周三扭转三连跌的势头，收涨超2%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7049f7a2b91ac4f840207b7f6788350a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于英伟达的竞争对手AMD本周宣布与OpenAI达成大规模的芯片供应协议，黄仁勋称该交易“巧妙”但令人吃惊，因为AMD向OpenAI提供了相当于10%AMD股权的认股权证。对于两周前公布的英伟达千亿美元投资OpenAI计划，黄仁勋认为只是遗憾没投更多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业内分析师预计，到2026年，全球的AI基础设施合计支出可能达到2万亿美元。AI模型正在从提供简单问答向拥有复杂的推理能力演进，这推动了计算需求呈指数级增长。</p><h2 id=\"ai-blackwell\">AI计算需求激增 Blackwell芯片供不应求</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周三，被问到投资者最常问什么问题时，黄仁勋强调：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“今年、特别是过去六个月，计算需求大幅增长。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋解释称，AI推理模型正使用指数级的计算能力，但同时也看到指数级的需求增长，因为其结果非常出色。他说：“AI已经足够智能，人人都想用它。我们现在同时看到两个指数级增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达最先进的Blackwell图形处理器（GPU）需求尤其旺盛。该芯片拥有2080亿个晶体管和全新AI加速技术，已成为从OpenAI的ChatGPT到其他AI模型数据中心的核心支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说，“对Blackwell的需求非常非常高”，还说&#34;我认为我们正处于新一轮建设的开端，新工业革命的开端。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达上月宣布，计划未来十年向OpenAI共计投资1000亿美元，支持OpenAI部署需要10千兆瓦电力的英伟达系统，相当于400万至500万个GPU。</p><h2 id=\"20-x-ai\">英伟达据称20亿美元参与xAI融资轮</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周三有媒体报道，xAI正寻求筹集约200亿美元资金，英伟达将投资20亿美元。该融资包括股权和债务，通过特殊目的工具购买英伟达处理器并租给xAI用于其Colossus 2项目。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该媒体获悉，xAI的融资将分为约75亿美元股权和高达125亿美元债务。xAI今年早些时候已通过股权和债务融资约100亿美元，但鉴于今年6月有报道援引财务数据称，xAI每月大概烧钱10亿美元，该公司仍需追加数十亿美元资金投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋周三对另一媒体确认了英伟达投资xAI，称：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我对他们（xAI）提供的融资机会感到非常兴奋。我们已经是xAI的投资者，我对xAI的唯一遗憾是没有给他（马斯克）更多资金。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋高度评价马斯克的创业经历，称这位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和SpaceX的创始人擅长打造变革性的公司。他表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“几乎所有埃隆（·马斯克）参与的事，你都真的想参与其中。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"amd-open-ai\">对AMD协议给OpenAI股份感到吃惊 遗憾投资OpenAI不够多</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于AMD本周一宣布的与OpenAI多年合作协议，黄仁勋表示吃惊。根据协议，OpenAI承诺购买6千兆瓦（GW）芯片，包括AMD即将推出的MI450系列，作为交换，OpenAI将获得最多1.6亿股AMD认股权证。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“考虑到他们对下一代产品如此兴奋，这（协议）真是富有想象力，而且独一无二，令人吃惊。我很惊讶，他们竟然在产品还没开发出来之前就放弃了10%的公司股份。无论如何，我想这很巧妙。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AMD股价自宣布该协议以来大幅上涨，本周累计涨幅达35%。该交易挑战了英伟达在AI芯片行业的主导地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说，英伟达对OpenAI的投资同OpenAI与AMD 的交易“截然不同”，因为它允许英伟达直接向OpenAI出售产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">被问到OpenAI如何为与英伟达的交易筹集资金时，黄仁勋表示，OpenAI“现在还没钱”，“首先要通过他们正在成倍增长的收入、股权或债务来筹资。他们给了我们机会，让我们在时机成熟时与其他投资者一起投资。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋同时表达了对英伟达投资OpenAI不足的遗憾。他说：“我们之前投资OpenAI后，唯一的遗憾就是没有投更多。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋表示，他认为云服务商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a> 是英伟达近期几项“非常出色的投资”之一。“他们是真正特别的公司，他们正在构建，他们是我们生态系统的一部分，正在为世界构建 AI 基础设施。”</p><h2 id=\"ai\">AI竞争：中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在谈及AI竞争格局时，黄仁勋表示美国目前“领先不多”。他指出，中国在建设支持AI所需电力方面的速度远超美国。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说：“中国在能源方面遥遥领先。” 他认为AI行业需要在电网之外建设新的发电能力，以快速满足需求并保护消费者免受电价上涨影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋建议数据中心应配备天然气发电设备，未来可能使用核电。他表示：“我们应该投资几乎所有可能的发电方式。数据中心自发电比接入电网移动更快，我们必须这样做。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">按照与英伟达达成的协议，OpenAI计划建设10GW的数据中心。这一容量相当于800万美国家庭全年的耗电量，或者等于2024年夏季纽约市的峰值基准电力需求量，凸显了AI行业对能源的巨大需求。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1700700604709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄仁勋：近半年AI需求大增，英伟达参投马斯克的xAI，可惜没投更多，对OpenAI也这样遗憾</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄仁勋：近半年AI需求大增，英伟达参投马斯克的xAI，可惜没投更多，对OpenAI也这样遗憾\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-09 07:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756804><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>黄仁勋说，Blackwell的需求“非常非常高”，我们正处于新工业革命的开端；几乎所有马斯克参与的事都想参与其中；对英伟达投资OpenAI的唯一遗憾是没投更多；对AMD协议给OpenAI多达10%股份感到吃惊。谈到中美AI竞争，他认为中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先。周三媒体称，xAI寻求融资200亿美元，英伟达将投20亿。英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次力挺人工智能（AI）需求强劲的观点，并确认了英伟达参投...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756804\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6954d1dc2b34c5f605b752cf346a1934","relate_stocks":{"IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4605":"半导体精选","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","BK4608":"AI应用概念股","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU1035775433.USD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU2931357623.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS 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Blackwell芯片供不应求本周三，被问到投资者最常问什么问题时，黄仁勋强调：“今年、特别是过去六个月，计算需求大幅增长。”黄仁勋解释称，AI推理模型正使用指数级的计算能力，但同时也看到指数级的需求增长，因为其结果非常出色。他说：“AI已经足够智能，人人都想用它。我们现在同时看到两个指数级增长。”英伟达最先进的Blackwell图形处理器（GPU）需求尤其旺盛。该芯片拥有2080亿个晶体管和全新AI加速技术，已成为从OpenAI的ChatGPT到其他AI模型数据中心的核心支撑。黄仁勋说，“对Blackwell的需求非常非常高”，还说\"我认为我们正处于新一轮建设的开端，新工业革命的开端。\"英伟达上月宣布，计划未来十年向OpenAI共计投资1000亿美元，支持OpenAI部署需要10千兆瓦电力的英伟达系统，相当于400万至500万个GPU。英伟达据称20亿美元参与xAI融资轮本周三有媒体报道，xAI正寻求筹集约200亿美元资金，英伟达将投资20亿美元。该融资包括股权和债务，通过特殊目的工具购买英伟达处理器并租给xAI用于其Colossus 2项目。该媒体获悉，xAI的融资将分为约75亿美元股权和高达125亿美元债务。xAI今年早些时候已通过股权和债务融资约100亿美元，但鉴于今年6月有报道援引财务数据称，xAI每月大概烧钱10亿美元，该公司仍需追加数十亿美元资金投入。黄仁勋周三对另一媒体确认了英伟达投资xAI，称：“我对他们（xAI）提供的融资机会感到非常兴奋。我们已经是xAI的投资者，我对xAI的唯一遗憾是没有给他（马斯克）更多资金。\"黄仁勋高度评价马斯克的创业经历，称这位特斯拉和SpaceX的创始人擅长打造变革性的公司。他表示：“几乎所有埃隆（·马斯克）参与的事，你都真的想参与其中。”对AMD协议给OpenAI股份感到吃惊 遗憾投资OpenAI不够多对于AMD本周一宣布的与OpenAI多年合作协议，黄仁勋表示吃惊。根据协议，OpenAI承诺购买6千兆瓦（GW）芯片，包括AMD即将推出的MI450系列，作为交换，OpenAI将获得最多1.6亿股AMD认股权证。黄仁勋说：“考虑到他们对下一代产品如此兴奋，这（协议）真是富有想象力，而且独一无二，令人吃惊。我很惊讶，他们竟然在产品还没开发出来之前就放弃了10%的公司股份。无论如何，我想这很巧妙。”AMD股价自宣布该协议以来大幅上涨，本周累计涨幅达35%。该交易挑战了英伟达在AI芯片行业的主导地位。黄仁勋说，英伟达对OpenAI的投资同OpenAI与AMD 的交易“截然不同”，因为它允许英伟达直接向OpenAI出售产品。被问到OpenAI如何为与英伟达的交易筹集资金时，黄仁勋表示，OpenAI“现在还没钱”，“首先要通过他们正在成倍增长的收入、股权或债务来筹资。他们给了我们机会，让我们在时机成熟时与其他投资者一起投资。”黄仁勋同时表达了对英伟达投资OpenAI不足的遗憾。他说：“我们之前投资OpenAI后，唯一的遗憾就是没有投更多。”黄仁勋表示，他认为云服务商CoreWeave 是英伟达近期几项“非常出色的投资”之一。“他们是真正特别的公司，他们正在构建，他们是我们生态系统的一部分，正在为世界构建 AI 基础设施。”AI竞争：中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先在谈及AI竞争格局时，黄仁勋表示美国目前“领先不多”。他指出，中国在建设支持AI所需电力方面的速度远超美国。黄仁勋说：“中国在能源方面遥遥领先。” 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