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IP属地:天津
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GLA
09-30
$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$
现在交易的这个是已经按1:120比例稀释过的新股吗,有大佬解读一下吗
GLA
10-11
$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$
这个是什么,我的持仓显示的这个,不是说10号老股可以交易吗,是老虎问题吗
GLA
10-16
$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$
兄弟们之前的旧股又可以卖出了的吗,想知道都不能卖还是只有老虎不行,老虎客服说只能等着公司换股
GLA
2019-12-11
$小米集团-W(01810)$
又不是之前没上过10,小米还不懂吗,过几天再给你们跌回8.8,到时候见
GLA
2024-01-03
$乐华娱乐(02306)$
这都没人?什么情况啊今天
GLA
2020-01-17
$新石文化(01740)$
没中签,追进去,**了,还行么,不靠谱,等等看
GLA
09-09
$云知声(09678)$
干的漂亮,这只破股票凭什么能涨这么多?早该跌了
GLA
2019-12-27
$小米集团-W(01810)$
大佬能不能讲一下,为什么在10.86和10.88徘徊,不上也不下吗
GLA
2019-11-08
$美团点评-W(03690)$
特么有病啊,大早上一上来就猛砸?这是哪家机构?????!!!!
GLA
2019-11-27
我的小可爱珍宝,感谢2年前你的出现,让我找到了美团点评的工作,然后他就上市了,然后我就赚钱了,我的昵称是GLA,记得吗,这是你喜欢的车,我注册老虎起这个名字,就是要以收益可以买给你一辆GLA哈哈!
GLA
2019-11-28
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
真有意思,前天一直188,今天一直200,这是怎么做到的?牛人能帮分析下吗
GLA
2020-01-23
$新石文化(01740)$
割不割?
GLA
2019-12-30
$小米集团-W(01810)$
是北水来了???!
GLA
09-30
$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$
amazing
GLA
2019-12-18
不玩小米和美团了,换换口味[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
$美团点评-W(03690)$
$小米集团-W(01810)$
$保利物业(06049)$
GLA
2019-11-28
$小米集团-W(01810)$
日了鬼,恨没有9.14的时候平仓!!!!
GLA
2024-01-16
$乐华娱乐(02306)$
奇怪了,为啥都快跌没了,市场上什么消息都没有?这妥妥的黑幕吧
GLA
2024-12-27
$金山软件(03888)$
为啥金山云涨那么多啊,这两个股票不是一家的吗
GLA
2019-12-30
$保利物业(06049)$
为啥突然拉高,隔壁小米也是这个时间点
GLA
2019-12-27
$保利物业(06049)$
太疯狂了,幸亏坚持持有。反而隔壁的小米才涨几毛钱。[笑哭] [捂脸] [难过]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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兄弟们之前的旧股又可以卖出了的吗,想知道都不能卖还是只有老虎不行,老虎客服说只能等着公司换股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489691233562960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3578393187488970","authorId":"3578393187488970","name":"小狼快跑","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578393187488970","idStr":"3578393187488970"},"content":"想啥呢。老股都换成新股了呀。。。","text":"想啥呢。老股都换成新股了呀。。。","html":"想啥呢。老股都换成新股了呀。。。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487773982408800,"gmtCreate":1760112997161,"gmtModify":1760113009108,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493359761462174","idStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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这个是什么,我的持仓显示的这个,不是说10号老股可以交易吗,是老虎问题吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff91b3e9661babae81725c4ed9059dd1","width":"1200","height":"2652"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487773982408800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557786368522303","authorId":"3557786368522303","name":"RamonZH","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557786368522303","idStr":"3557786368522303"},"content":"看看今天可以么?求更新","text":"看看今天可以么?求更新","html":"看看今天可以么?求更新"},{"author":{"id":"3560755129387034","authorId":"3560755129387034","name":"hoolly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1432366105b581aaf47f1ea0c629cc36","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560755129387034","idStr":"3560755129387034"},"content":"交易了吗?我的还是0呀","text":"交易了吗?我的还是0呀","html":"交易了吗?我的还是0呀"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487548704395304,"gmtCreate":1760059673512,"gmtModify":1760062199983,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493359761462174","idStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08549\">$金叶国际集团(08549)$ </a> 没人?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08549\">$金叶国际集团(08549)$ </a> 没人?","text":"$金叶国际集团(08549)$ 没人?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487548704395304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487394692760368,"gmtCreate":1760021737836,"gmtModify":1760021739416,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493359761462174","idStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLBX\">$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ </a> ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLBX\">$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ </a> ?","text":"$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487394692760368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":487394222596424,"gmtCreate":1760021722881,"gmtModify":1760021724561,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493359761462174","idStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLBX\">$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ </a> 这是啥公司","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLBX\">$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ </a> 这是啥公司","text":"$Blackboxstocks Inc.(BLBX)$ 这是啥公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487394222596424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487297457000736,"gmtCreate":1759997568494,"gmtModify":1759997570747,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493359761462174","idStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"黄教主的发言真的很有水平","listText":"黄教主的发言真的很有水平","text":"黄教主的发言真的很有水平","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487297457000736","repostId":"1108099210","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108099210","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1759964825,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108099210?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-09 07:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋:近半年AI需求大增,英伟达参投马斯克的xAI,可惜没投更多,对OpenAI也这样遗憾","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108099210","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周三媒体称,xAI寻求融资200亿美元,英伟达将投20亿。英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次力挺人工智能需求强劲的观点,并确认了英伟达参投马斯克旗下初创xAI的消息。黄仁勋提到AI需求激增后,英伟达股价周三扭转三连跌的势头,收涨超2%。对于两周前公布的英伟达千亿美元投资OpenAI计划,黄仁勋认为只是遗憾没投更多。\"英伟达上月宣布,计划未来十年向OpenAI共计投资1000亿美元,支持OpenAI部署需要10千兆瓦电力的英伟达系统,相当于400万至500万个GPU。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>黄仁勋说,Blackwell的需求“非常非常高”,我们正处于新工业革命的开端;几乎所有马斯克参与的事都想参与其中;对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>投资OpenAI的唯一遗憾是没投更多;对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>协议给OpenAI多达10%股份感到吃惊。谈到中美AI竞争,他认为中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先。周三媒体称,xAI寻求融资200亿美元,英伟达将投20亿。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次力挺人工智能(AI)需求强劲的观点,并确认了英伟达参投马斯克旗下初创xAI的消息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间10月8日周三的媒体采访中,黄仁勋表示,过去六个月AI计算需求大幅上升,英伟达新一代架构Blackwell的芯片需求“非常非常高”。他认为这标志着“新一轮工业革命”开始。对于英伟达投资xAI,黄仁勋表示,唯一的遗憾是没给马斯克更多投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋提到AI需求激增后,英伟达股价周三扭转三连跌的势头,收涨超2%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7049f7a2b91ac4f840207b7f6788350a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于英伟达的竞争对手AMD本周宣布与OpenAI达成大规模的芯片供应协议,黄仁勋称该交易“巧妙”但令人吃惊,因为AMD向OpenAI提供了相当于10%AMD股权的认股权证。对于两周前公布的英伟达千亿美元投资OpenAI计划,黄仁勋认为只是遗憾没投更多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业内分析师预计,到2026年,全球的AI基础设施合计支出可能达到2万亿美元。AI模型正在从提供简单问答向拥有复杂的推理能力演进,这推动了计算需求呈指数级增长。</p><h2 id=\"ai-blackwell\">AI计算需求激增 Blackwell芯片供不应求</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周三,被问到投资者最常问什么问题时,黄仁勋强调:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“今年、特别是过去六个月,计算需求大幅增长。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋解释称,AI推理模型正使用指数级的计算能力,但同时也看到指数级的需求增长,因为其结果非常出色。他说:“AI已经足够智能,人人都想用它。我们现在同时看到两个指数级增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达最先进的Blackwell图形处理器(GPU)需求尤其旺盛。该芯片拥有2080亿个晶体管和全新AI加速技术,已成为从OpenAI的ChatGPT到其他AI模型数据中心的核心支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说,“对Blackwell的需求非常非常高”,还说"我认为我们正处于新一轮建设的开端,新工业革命的开端。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达上月宣布,计划未来十年向OpenAI共计投资1000亿美元,支持OpenAI部署需要10千兆瓦电力的英伟达系统,相当于400万至500万个GPU。</p><h2 id=\"20-x-ai\">英伟达据称20亿美元参与xAI融资轮</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周三有媒体报道,xAI正寻求筹集约200亿美元资金,英伟达将投资20亿美元。该融资包括股权和债务,通过特殊目的工具购买英伟达处理器并租给xAI用于其Colossus 2项目。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该媒体获悉,xAI的融资将分为约75亿美元股权和高达125亿美元债务。xAI今年早些时候已通过股权和债务融资约100亿美元,但鉴于今年6月有报道援引财务数据称,xAI每月大概烧钱10亿美元,该公司仍需追加数十亿美元资金投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋周三对另一媒体确认了英伟达投资xAI,称:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我对他们(xAI)提供的融资机会感到非常兴奋。我们已经是xAI的投资者,我对xAI的唯一遗憾是没有给他(马斯克)更多资金。"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋高度评价马斯克的创业经历,称这位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和SpaceX的创始人擅长打造变革性的公司。他表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“几乎所有埃隆(·马斯克)参与的事,你都真的想参与其中。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"amd-open-ai\">对AMD协议给OpenAI股份感到吃惊 遗憾投资OpenAI不够多</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于AMD本周一宣布的与OpenAI多年合作协议,黄仁勋表示吃惊。根据协议,OpenAI承诺购买6千兆瓦(GW)芯片,包括AMD即将推出的MI450系列,作为交换,OpenAI将获得最多1.6亿股AMD认股权证。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“考虑到他们对下一代产品如此兴奋,这(协议)真是富有想象力,而且独一无二,令人吃惊。我很惊讶,他们竟然在产品还没开发出来之前就放弃了10%的公司股份。无论如何,我想这很巧妙。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AMD股价自宣布该协议以来大幅上涨,本周累计涨幅达35%。该交易挑战了英伟达在AI芯片行业的主导地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说,英伟达对OpenAI的投资同OpenAI与AMD 的交易“截然不同”,因为它允许英伟达直接向OpenAI出售产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">被问到OpenAI如何为与英伟达的交易筹集资金时,黄仁勋表示,OpenAI“现在还没钱”,“首先要通过他们正在成倍增长的收入、股权或债务来筹资。他们给了我们机会,让我们在时机成熟时与其他投资者一起投资。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋同时表达了对英伟达投资OpenAI不足的遗憾。他说:“我们之前投资OpenAI后,唯一的遗憾就是没有投更多。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋表示,他认为云服务商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a> 是英伟达近期几项“非常出色的投资”之一。“他们是真正特别的公司,他们正在构建,他们是我们生态系统的一部分,正在为世界构建 AI 基础设施。”</p><h2 id=\"ai\">AI竞争:中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在谈及AI竞争格局时,黄仁勋表示美国目前“领先不多”。他指出,中国在建设支持AI所需电力方面的速度远超美国。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋说:“中国在能源方面遥遥领先。” 他认为AI行业需要在电网之外建设新的发电能力,以快速满足需求并保护消费者免受电价上涨影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋建议数据中心应配备天然气发电设备,未来可能使用核电。他表示:“我们应该投资几乎所有可能的发电方式。数据中心自发电比接入电网移动更快,我们必须这样做。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">按照与英伟达达成的协议,OpenAI计划建设10GW的数据中心。这一容量相当于800万美国家庭全年的耗电量,或者等于2024年夏季纽约市的峰值基准电力需求量,凸显了AI行业对能源的巨大需求。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1700700604709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄仁勋:近半年AI需求大增,英伟达参投马斯克的xAI,可惜没投更多,对OpenAI也这样遗憾</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄仁勋:近半年AI需求大增,英伟达参投马斯克的xAI,可惜没投更多,对OpenAI也这样遗憾\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-09 07:07 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756804><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>黄仁勋说,Blackwell的需求“非常非常高”,我们正处于新工业革命的开端;几乎所有马斯克参与的事都想参与其中;对英伟达投资OpenAI的唯一遗憾是没投更多;对AMD协议给OpenAI多达10%股份感到吃惊。谈到中美AI竞争,他认为中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先。周三媒体称,xAI寻求融资200亿美元,英伟达将投20亿。英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次力挺人工智能(AI)需求强劲的观点,并确认了英伟达参投...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756804\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6954d1dc2b34c5f605b752cf346a1934","relate_stocks":{"LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","LU2125909593.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A SGD","BK4614":"Manus概念股","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE 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Blackwell芯片供不应求本周三,被问到投资者最常问什么问题时,黄仁勋强调:“今年、特别是过去六个月,计算需求大幅增长。”黄仁勋解释称,AI推理模型正使用指数级的计算能力,但同时也看到指数级的需求增长,因为其结果非常出色。他说:“AI已经足够智能,人人都想用它。我们现在同时看到两个指数级增长。”英伟达最先进的Blackwell图形处理器(GPU)需求尤其旺盛。该芯片拥有2080亿个晶体管和全新AI加速技术,已成为从OpenAI的ChatGPT到其他AI模型数据中心的核心支撑。黄仁勋说,“对Blackwell的需求非常非常高”,还说\"我认为我们正处于新一轮建设的开端,新工业革命的开端。\"英伟达上月宣布,计划未来十年向OpenAI共计投资1000亿美元,支持OpenAI部署需要10千兆瓦电力的英伟达系统,相当于400万至500万个GPU。英伟达据称20亿美元参与xAI融资轮本周三有媒体报道,xAI正寻求筹集约200亿美元资金,英伟达将投资20亿美元。该融资包括股权和债务,通过特殊目的工具购买英伟达处理器并租给xAI用于其Colossus 2项目。该媒体获悉,xAI的融资将分为约75亿美元股权和高达125亿美元债务。xAI今年早些时候已通过股权和债务融资约100亿美元,但鉴于今年6月有报道援引财务数据称,xAI每月大概烧钱10亿美元,该公司仍需追加数十亿美元资金投入。黄仁勋周三对另一媒体确认了英伟达投资xAI,称:“我对他们(xAI)提供的融资机会感到非常兴奋。我们已经是xAI的投资者,我对xAI的唯一遗憾是没有给他(马斯克)更多资金。\"黄仁勋高度评价马斯克的创业经历,称这位特斯拉和SpaceX的创始人擅长打造变革性的公司。他表示:“几乎所有埃隆(·马斯克)参与的事,你都真的想参与其中。”对AMD协议给OpenAI股份感到吃惊 遗憾投资OpenAI不够多对于AMD本周一宣布的与OpenAI多年合作协议,黄仁勋表示吃惊。根据协议,OpenAI承诺购买6千兆瓦(GW)芯片,包括AMD即将推出的MI450系列,作为交换,OpenAI将获得最多1.6亿股AMD认股权证。黄仁勋说:“考虑到他们对下一代产品如此兴奋,这(协议)真是富有想象力,而且独一无二,令人吃惊。我很惊讶,他们竟然在产品还没开发出来之前就放弃了10%的公司股份。无论如何,我想这很巧妙。”AMD股价自宣布该协议以来大幅上涨,本周累计涨幅达35%。该交易挑战了英伟达在AI芯片行业的主导地位。黄仁勋说,英伟达对OpenAI的投资同OpenAI与AMD 的交易“截然不同”,因为它允许英伟达直接向OpenAI出售产品。被问到OpenAI如何为与英伟达的交易筹集资金时,黄仁勋表示,OpenAI“现在还没钱”,“首先要通过他们正在成倍增长的收入、股权或债务来筹资。他们给了我们机会,让我们在时机成熟时与其他投资者一起投资。”黄仁勋同时表达了对英伟达投资OpenAI不足的遗憾。他说:“我们之前投资OpenAI后,唯一的遗憾就是没有投更多。”黄仁勋表示,他认为云服务商CoreWeave 是英伟达近期几项“非常出色的投资”之一。“他们是真正特别的公司,他们正在构建,他们是我们生态系统的一部分,正在为世界构建 AI 基础设施。”AI竞争:中国在能源建设方面遥遥领先在谈及AI竞争格局时,黄仁勋表示美国目前“领先不多”。他指出,中国在建设支持AI所需电力方面的速度远超美国。黄仁勋说:“中国在能源方面遥遥领先。” 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11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"张忆东:7月以来港股利空已接近尾声,A股和港股都将走出超级长牛","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2564349768","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"兴证证券张忆东认为,7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声,包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看,中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路,A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>兴证证券张忆东认为,7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声,包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看,中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路,A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1741814835\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心观点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一、回顾:2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映,2025年7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声。</strong>从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今,港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。2025年6月底到8月底,A股持续上涨,在全球表现优异;同期港股表现相对乏力,主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股资金面:2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境,将有望改善。</strong>当前,港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间,金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%,处于正常的历史区间范围,后续,香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股基本面:2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修,但中报业绩期之后将迎转机。</strong>恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到8月31日的2.35%,外卖市场竞争加剧、互联网的利润预期下调是主因。截至2025年8月29日,港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调,更关键是,阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后,即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>二、中长期展望:走中国特色金融发展之路,A股和港股都将走出超级长牛。</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化</strong>,<strong>长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路,中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈,顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。</strong>有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”,强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系,形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序,从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演,实现震荡向上的长牛。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾,这是中期行情的关键变量。</strong>政策大力引导中长期资金入市,社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市,存款搬家初见端倪。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中国<strong>AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破,全面提振了股市信心。</strong>AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体,赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续,全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大:1)</strong>历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预,特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大,有利于外资回流港股和A股。<strong>2)</strong>2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息,四季度美元将走弱,当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面:“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展,对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响。</strong>中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议,决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届四中全会,此次会议定调“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三、9月份行情展望:港股补涨动力已积蓄,震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。1)港股补涨的动力,年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨。</strong>从历史维度来看,截至8月29日,恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍,处于2020年7月以来29.9%分位数。<strong>2)港股补涨的动力,中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。</strong>全球股市来看,港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍,仍是全球洼地,明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍;风险溢价角度,恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%,远高于美股-0.64%、日股3.38%、欧股3.35%的风险溢价水平。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>行情节奏上,港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险,但大方向是向上。</strong>1)9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡,但是,牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。警惕美股9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整,或者,美联储超预期没有降息。2)9月初之后,A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力,或导致9月A股行情震荡蓄势。3)历史上看,A股牛市阶段的震荡调整,港股不一定跟随,反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段,港股跟随调整的仅有4次,但在震荡调整阶段,恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。4)卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。美联储四季度大概率要降息,为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困,特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始,降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值,港股性价比强于美股。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1874793998\" style=\"text-align: left;\">报告正文</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>标题引用</strong>:<strong>自古逢秋悲寂寥,我言秋日胜春朝。晴空一鹤排云上,便引诗情到碧霄<em>——刘禹锡《秋词二首·其一》</em></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一、回顾:2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映,7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(一)2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今,港股和A股各自精彩、交相辉映</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今,港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>回顾去年至今的行情节奏,2024年1季度港股行情相对A股是率先见底反转。</strong>当时港股的卖空金额占比高达30%的历史极端水平,我们基于对中国经济新旧动能切换和宏观政策调控的深刻理解,明确指出海外投资者对中国房地产风险及中国经济过度悲观,发布报告《港股的春天》、战略性看多港股。“9.24行情”之前,A股的表现明显落后于港股;“9.24”行情期间,A股和港股携手向上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>经过2024年四季度的震荡巩固,今年1月份开始港股率先走强,前5个月,港股表现明显强于A股。</strong>不论是一季度的互联网代表的科技行情,还是二季度新消费和创新药行情都很精彩,同时,港股绩优股、价值股也较A股相对强势,AH股溢价指数持续收窄截止到6月底达到120左右,创近年的新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2025年6月底至今,A股持续上涨,在全球表现优异。同期港股表现相对乏力,主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76a135107c2ba799203066194045a5\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(二)2025年7月以来,制约港股的不利因素影响接近尾声</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. 港股资金面:2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境,将有望改善</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年4月份特朗普政府实施所谓“对等关税”政策后,美国遭遇“股债汇”三杀,港币兑美元汇率触及7.75的强方保证。在联系汇率制度的约束下,香港金管局被动注入大量港币流动性,香港银行体系的结余资金从2025年4月底440亿港元上升到2025年5月8日的1740亿港元,流动性的骤然宽裕导致HIBOR利率下降至接近0的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于港币和美元之间的利差扩大至4个百分点左右的水平,卖出港币和买入美元的套息交易蜂拥而至,叠加美元反弹,进而,导致港币持续贬值,终于在2025年6月24日触及弱方保证7.85。于是,与2025年5月初的操作相反,金管局从2025年6月27日开始回收过剩流动性,由于回笼速度较慢,前期流动性依然维持过剩状态,HIBOR继续处于低位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年8月以来,银行系统的结余已经降至比2025年4月底略高的水平,这推动了HIBOR利率从0附近快速上行;叠加2025年8月22日Jackson Hole会议之后,美联储9月降息预期抬升,进一步触发了套息交易的集中平仓,增加了市场对港币的资金需求,HIBOR利率飙升至4%附近。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>当前,港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间,金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%,处于正常的历史区间范围。后续,香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3bc939255d02ac516b3002503da7cb3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2. 港股基本面:2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修,但中报业绩期之后将迎转机</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期(根据彭博数据),从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到2025年8月31日的2.35%。外卖市场的竞争加剧、港股第一大权重板块互联网的利润预期下调,是恒生指数EPS下调的主要原因。</strong>范围更广的港股通成分股盈利预期变化不大,截至2025年8月29日,港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伴随反内卷的政策导向的深入,监管当局对互联网巨头们进行约谈、2025年10月15日起施行新修订《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》对平台内卷进行限制,即时零售的内卷有望改善。更关键是,阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后,即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。我们预判,四季度开始,互联网基本面的叙事逻辑将从“外卖内卷”转向“AI赋能”,业绩预期有望改善。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dbd0d2b75118b77b3f375d05cde8d8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">二、中长期展望:走中国特色金融发展之路,A股和港股都将走出超级长牛</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(一)中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化,长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈,顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。</strong>有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”,强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系,形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序,从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演,实现震荡向上的长牛。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2023年中央金融工作会议,首次系统阐述“坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路”。“中国特色金融发展之路,与西方金融模式有本质区别”。“坚持以人民为中心的价值取向,坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2024年9月26日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出“努力提振资本市场”,2024年12月9日以及2025年2月28日召开的中共中央政治局会议均强调“稳住股市”。2025年4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议强调“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前A股走强,进一步强化了中国股市长牛的逻辑,包括,科技创新的发展、中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化所带来的战略机遇期、中国社会财富从避险资产向权益资产再配置的逻辑。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">南向资金大幅流入港股,表面原因是港股行情的赚钱效应提升,港股市场生态环境发生改变,优质企业赴港上市,为港股市场注入新鲜血液,提升了市场活力,吸引了南向资金的流入。<strong>更深层的原因是中央金融工作会议之后,国家积极赋能香港、巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位,香港由治及兴。</strong></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/210e2923a4a1a5bffb085ce9a2ca9f68\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"658\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(二)中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾,这是中期行情的关键变量</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2024年以来政策大力引导中长期资金入市,社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市,存款搬家初见端倪。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中央汇金等机构持续增持ETF。根据兴证策略团队统计,汇金重点持仓的ETF自2023年7月以来至2025年7月累计流入资金超过1万亿元。同期,货币当局对其他金融性公司债权从1363亿元提升至2025年6月末的9810亿元。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">政策上调保险资金配置权益类资产比例的上限,险资加速增配权益资产,股票持仓占比升至近年来新高。截至今年H1,保险资金持有的股票+基金占比升至13.5%,处于近年来的较高水平。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在存款、银行理财、债券等各类利率趋势下行的“资产荒”背景下,居民存款配置权益资产的概率较高。7月,非银存款单月新增2.14万亿元,创2015年有数据记录以来的第二高水平,仅次于今年2月的2.83万亿元。历史上看,新增非银存款与全A走势相关性较强,反映居民资金的入市行为。截至2025年7月“居民存款与股票总市值之比”这一指标仍在1.7的历史高位。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3127afc8776763b9114c6df900ee833b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"649\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0efc6cef79d36c44ad467dc9d2f240d2\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"820\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(三)中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破,全面提振了股市信心,AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体,赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3 </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破,全面提振了股市信心,并催生了诸多行业性的机会。1)随着DeepSeek带动AI平权推进,叠加国 家政策层面高度支持,国内AI商业化进程有望持续提速,带动行情从上游扩散至 中下游。2)去年末我国六代机亮相、3月我国军舰绕澳大利亚环行展示,到二季 度的台海联合演练、歼10CE在印巴冲突中大放光彩,中国武器持续展现全球竞 争力。地缘冲突背景下国家安全牵引长期军贸需求,中国在国际军贸中的市场空间有望进一步打开。3)中国创新药已经实现从量变到质变的转化,逐渐从“跟跑 者”到“引领者”。中国创新药具备高效率、低成本的开发优势,在热门技术赛道 如ADC、双抗、细胞治疗等具备竞争优势,有望持续展现行业竞争力。4)2025 年人形机器人产业浪潮已至,中国供应链完整,高水平技工和工程师规模占优,大规模量产能力强。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9122cc97a6a3cba9074c0adfcc6c1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"755\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体,赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球AI模型厂商进入集中发力期,以ChatGPT为代表的AI应用以前所未有的速度侵占用户时长,ChatGPT截至2025年7月26日已达3.39亿日活跃用户,接近谷歌搜索的1/5。<strong>海外龙头二季报业绩印证AI应用商业化加速潜力,</strong>美股AI龙头公司二季报中AI的贡献正在加大。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>国内AI在国内大模型迎来更多突破,以及芯片瓶颈松动的环境下,AI商业化进程有望提速。</strong>DeepSeek-V3.1正式发布继续推进下一代高性能硬件和软件优化,尤其是,未来基于DeepSeek模型有望更多应用国产算力芯片,这将进一步推动国内AI产业链发展。腾讯、腾讯音乐和快手等互联网公司的中报业绩预期,AI赋能互联网已经拉开序幕。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b4629d686ce3ef58459cc0633f9a1e3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"504\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(四)随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续,全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预,特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大,有利于外资回流港股和A股。</strong>为了配合美国的高财政赤字、高政府债务杠杆率,特朗普不惜频频干预美联储独立性、呼吁降息和弱美元。美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议发言,已经暗示降息以呵护经济下行的必要性:就业市场反映出下行风险,基准情况下关税对价格的影响是一次性的,工资上涨和长期通胀预期上行的风险较小,货币政策处于限制性区域,基准前景和风险平衡的变动可能需要调整政策立场。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654060d9bc2dbbcf0db375bae74853f0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息,四季度美元将走弱,当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。</strong>从国际中介持股占比来反映港股市场的外资动向,从4年前的50%以上,持续下降到当前的43%左右,开始出现企稳迹象。中国股市赚钱效应的持续性有望提升,从而增强外资回流的信心。此前,外资对中国经济过度悲观,错把美国式大放水作为刺激经济的标准答案,而低估了“中国固本培元式”高质量发展。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8ce6f8292011b7a88d24da1f529520\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(五)中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面:“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展,对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议,决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议,主要议程是,中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作,研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。按照先前经验来看,今年9 月的政治局会议可能将讨论党中央关于制定“十五五”规划建议的初稿,并提请10月份召开的二十届四中全会审议。此次会议定调“十五五”时期是“夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期”,在“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>党中央部署综合整治“内卷式”竞争。</strong>这是解决当前经济发展矛盾的关键举措,是深化经济体制改革的重要保障,也是推动企业实现创新发展、向价值链中高端攀升、不断增强发展韧性的有效路径。不同时代的“供给侧”改革,股市赋能的侧重点不同。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1998年国企改革的侧重点是去产能、解决债务问题、建立现代企业制度,释放企业活力,为新一轮经济增长奠定基础。资本市场赋能体现在,通过IPO及国有股配售、并购重组,帮助国企建立现代企业制度改革,调整国有资产布局,盘活了国有资产,国企改革成为行情重要主线。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本轮“反内卷”聚焦释放创新活力,助力高质量发展。资本市场赋能将更多体现在引导资源向有利于推动创新、提高效率的方向配置。2024年9月26日中共中央政治局会议“支持上市公司并购重组”。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三、9月份行情展望:港股补涨动力已积蓄,震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(一)港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. 港股补涨的动力,年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股补涨的动力,年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨,而不是A、H股同时上市的股票。</strong>从历史维度来看,截至2025年8月29日,港股恒生指数预测市盈率目前11.7倍,处于2015年以来59.40%分位数;恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍,仅处于2020年7月以来的29.9%分位数水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a61cdbf8d7682557ccd8b72d91d02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"405\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. </strong>港股补涨的动力,中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球股市来看,港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍,明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍、日本日经225指数20倍、欧元区斯托克50指数16.2倍;风险溢价角度,恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%,相对10年期美债利率的风险溢价在3.8%左右,远高于美股的-0.64%的风险溢价水平,也高于日股3.38%以及欧股3.35%的风险溢价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6c86432ba700decf3eae1aba41bb0d3\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"573\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(二)行情节奏上,港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险,但大方向是向上</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡,但是,牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。</strong>美股当前估值高、VIX过低,警惕美股2025年9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整,或者,美联储超预期没有降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>不过,美联储四季度大概率要降息,卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。</strong>为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困,特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始,降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值,港股性价比强于美股。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60580ba290b8531b73ff5c7e3a83b29\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"382\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>9月初之后,A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。</strong>有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股2025年7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力,或导致2025年9月A股行情震荡蓄势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上看,A股牛市阶段的震荡调整,港股不一定跟随,反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。</strong>从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段,港股跟随调整的仅有4次,但在震荡调整阶段,恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5ca139aa6eda747d9b13df414dcbed1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"882\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n张忆东:7月以来港股利空已接近尾声,A股和港股都将走出超级长牛\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-04 11:22 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754903><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>兴证证券张忆东认为,7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声,包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看,中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路,A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。核心观点一、回顾:2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映,2025年7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声。从2024年中国权益资产启动...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754903\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15c88658aa2ff55014f3e675fdee2a3d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754903","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2564349768","content_text":"兴证证券张忆东认为,7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声,包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看,中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路,A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。核心观点一、回顾:2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映,2025年7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声。从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今,港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。2025年6月底到8月底,A股持续上涨,在全球表现优异;同期港股表现相对乏力,主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。港股资金面:2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境,将有望改善。当前,港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间,金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%,处于正常的历史区间范围,后续,香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。港股基本面:2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修,但中报业绩期之后将迎转机。恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到8月31日的2.35%,外卖市场竞争加剧、互联网的利润预期下调是主因。截至2025年8月29日,港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调,更关键是,阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后,即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。二、中长期展望:走中国特色金融发展之路,A股和港股都将走出超级长牛。中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化,长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路,中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈,顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”,强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系,形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序,从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演,实现震荡向上的长牛。中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾,这是中期行情的关键变量。政策大力引导中长期资金入市,社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市,存款搬家初见端倪。中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破,全面提振了股市信心。AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体,赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续,全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大:1)历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预,特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大,有利于外资回流港股和A股。2)2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息,四季度美元将走弱,当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面:“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展,对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响。中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议,决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届四中全会,此次会议定调“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。三、9月份行情展望:港股补涨动力已积蓄,震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。1)港股补涨的动力,年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨。从历史维度来看,截至8月29日,恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍,处于2020年7月以来29.9%分位数。2)港股补涨的动力,中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。全球股市来看,港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍,仍是全球洼地,明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍;风险溢价角度,恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%,远高于美股-0.64%、日股3.38%、欧股3.35%的风险溢价水平。行情节奏上,港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险,但大方向是向上。1)9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡,但是,牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。警惕美股9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整,或者,美联储超预期没有降息。2)9月初之后,A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力,或导致9月A股行情震荡蓄势。3)历史上看,A股牛市阶段的震荡调整,港股不一定跟随,反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段,港股跟随调整的仅有4次,但在震荡调整阶段,恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。4)卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。美联储四季度大概率要降息,为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困,特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始,降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值,港股性价比强于美股。报告正文标题引用:自古逢秋悲寂寥,我言秋日胜春朝。晴空一鹤排云上,便引诗情到碧霄——刘禹锡《秋词二首·其一》一、回顾:2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映,7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声(一)2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今,港股和A股各自精彩、交相辉映从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今,港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。回顾去年至今的行情节奏,2024年1季度港股行情相对A股是率先见底反转。当时港股的卖空金额占比高达30%的历史极端水平,我们基于对中国经济新旧动能切换和宏观政策调控的深刻理解,明确指出海外投资者对中国房地产风险及中国经济过度悲观,发布报告《港股的春天》、战略性看多港股。“9.24行情”之前,A股的表现明显落后于港股;“9.24”行情期间,A股和港股携手向上。经过2024年四季度的震荡巩固,今年1月份开始港股率先走强,前5个月,港股表现明显强于A股。不论是一季度的互联网代表的科技行情,还是二季度新消费和创新药行情都很精彩,同时,港股绩优股、价值股也较A股相对强势,AH股溢价指数持续收窄截止到6月底达到120左右,创近年的新低。2025年6月底至今,A股持续上涨,在全球表现优异。同期港股表现相对乏力,主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。(二)2025年7月以来,制约港股的不利因素影响接近尾声1. 港股资金面:2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境,将有望改善2025年4月份特朗普政府实施所谓“对等关税”政策后,美国遭遇“股债汇”三杀,港币兑美元汇率触及7.75的强方保证。在联系汇率制度的约束下,香港金管局被动注入大量港币流动性,香港银行体系的结余资金从2025年4月底440亿港元上升到2025年5月8日的1740亿港元,流动性的骤然宽裕导致HIBOR利率下降至接近0的水平。由于港币和美元之间的利差扩大至4个百分点左右的水平,卖出港币和买入美元的套息交易蜂拥而至,叠加美元反弹,进而,导致港币持续贬值,终于在2025年6月24日触及弱方保证7.85。于是,与2025年5月初的操作相反,金管局从2025年6月27日开始回收过剩流动性,由于回笼速度较慢,前期流动性依然维持过剩状态,HIBOR继续处于低位。2025年8月以来,银行系统的结余已经降至比2025年4月底略高的水平,这推动了HIBOR利率从0附近快速上行;叠加2025年8月22日Jackson Hole会议之后,美联储9月降息预期抬升,进一步触发了套息交易的集中平仓,增加了市场对港币的资金需求,HIBOR利率飙升至4%附近。当前,港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间,金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%,处于正常的历史区间范围。后续,香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。2. 港股基本面:2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修,但中报业绩期之后将迎转机恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期(根据彭博数据),从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到2025年8月31日的2.35%。外卖市场的竞争加剧、港股第一大权重板块互联网的利润预期下调,是恒生指数EPS下调的主要原因。范围更广的港股通成分股盈利预期变化不大,截至2025年8月29日,港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调。伴随反内卷的政策导向的深入,监管当局对互联网巨头们进行约谈、2025年10月15日起施行新修订《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》对平台内卷进行限制,即时零售的内卷有望改善。更关键是,阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后,即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。我们预判,四季度开始,互联网基本面的叙事逻辑将从“外卖内卷”转向“AI赋能”,业绩预期有望改善。二、中长期展望:走中国特色金融发展之路,A股和港股都将走出超级长牛(一)中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化,长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈,顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”,强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系,形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序,从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演,实现震荡向上的长牛。2023年中央金融工作会议,首次系统阐述“坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路”。“中国特色金融发展之路,与西方金融模式有本质区别”。“坚持以人民为中心的价值取向,坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨”。2024年9月26日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出“努力提振资本市场”,2024年12月9日以及2025年2月28日召开的中共中央政治局会议均强调“稳住股市”。2025年4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议强调“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”。当前A股走强,进一步强化了中国股市长牛的逻辑,包括,科技创新的发展、中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化所带来的战略机遇期、中国社会财富从避险资产向权益资产再配置的逻辑。南向资金大幅流入港股,表面原因是港股行情的赚钱效应提升,港股市场生态环境发生改变,优质企业赴港上市,为港股市场注入新鲜血液,提升了市场活力,吸引了南向资金的流入。更深层的原因是中央金融工作会议之后,国家积极赋能香港、巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位,香港由治及兴。(二)中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾,这是中期行情的关键变量2024年以来政策大力引导中长期资金入市,社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市,存款搬家初见端倪。中央汇金等机构持续增持ETF。根据兴证策略团队统计,汇金重点持仓的ETF自2023年7月以来至2025年7月累计流入资金超过1万亿元。同期,货币当局对其他金融性公司债权从1363亿元提升至2025年6月末的9810亿元。政策上调保险资金配置权益类资产比例的上限,险资加速增配权益资产,股票持仓占比升至近年来新高。截至今年H1,保险资金持有的股票+基金占比升至13.5%,处于近年来的较高水平。在存款、银行理财、债券等各类利率趋势下行的“资产荒”背景下,居民存款配置权益资产的概率较高。7月,非银存款单月新增2.14万亿元,创2015年有数据记录以来的第二高水平,仅次于今年2月的2.83万亿元。历史上看,新增非银存款与全A走势相关性较强,反映居民资金的入市行为。截至2025年7月“居民存款与股票总市值之比”这一指标仍在1.7的历史高位。(三)中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破,全面提振了股市信心,AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体,赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3 中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破,全面提振了股市信心,并催生了诸多行业性的机会。1)随着DeepSeek带动AI平权推进,叠加国 家政策层面高度支持,国内AI商业化进程有望持续提速,带动行情从上游扩散至 中下游。2)去年末我国六代机亮相、3月我国军舰绕澳大利亚环行展示,到二季 度的台海联合演练、歼10CE在印巴冲突中大放光彩,中国武器持续展现全球竞 争力。地缘冲突背景下国家安全牵引长期军贸需求,中国在国际军贸中的市场空间有望进一步打开。3)中国创新药已经实现从量变到质变的转化,逐渐从“跟跑 者”到“引领者”。中国创新药具备高效率、低成本的开发优势,在热门技术赛道 如ADC、双抗、细胞治疗等具备竞争优势,有望持续展现行业竞争力。4)2025 年人形机器人产业浪潮已至,中国供应链完整,高水平技工和工程师规模占优,大规模量产能力强。AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体,赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。全球AI模型厂商进入集中发力期,以ChatGPT为代表的AI应用以前所未有的速度侵占用户时长,ChatGPT截至2025年7月26日已达3.39亿日活跃用户,接近谷歌搜索的1/5。海外龙头二季报业绩印证AI应用商业化加速潜力,美股AI龙头公司二季报中AI的贡献正在加大。国内AI在国内大模型迎来更多突破,以及芯片瓶颈松动的环境下,AI商业化进程有望提速。DeepSeek-V3.1正式发布继续推进下一代高性能硬件和软件优化,尤其是,未来基于DeepSeek模型有望更多应用国产算力芯片,这将进一步推动国内AI产业链发展。腾讯、腾讯音乐和快手等互联网公司的中报业绩预期,AI赋能互联网已经拉开序幕。(四)随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续,全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预,特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大,有利于外资回流港股和A股。为了配合美国的高财政赤字、高政府债务杠杆率,特朗普不惜频频干预美联储独立性、呼吁降息和弱美元。美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议发言,已经暗示降息以呵护经济下行的必要性:就业市场反映出下行风险,基准情况下关税对价格的影响是一次性的,工资上涨和长期通胀预期上行的风险较小,货币政策处于限制性区域,基准前景和风险平衡的变动可能需要调整政策立场。2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息,四季度美元将走弱,当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。从国际中介持股占比来反映港股市场的外资动向,从4年前的50%以上,持续下降到当前的43%左右,开始出现企稳迹象。中国股市赚钱效应的持续性有望提升,从而增强外资回流的信心。此前,外资对中国经济过度悲观,错把美国式大放水作为刺激经济的标准答案,而低估了“中国固本培元式”高质量发展。(五)中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面:“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展,对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议,决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议,主要议程是,中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作,研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。按照先前经验来看,今年9 月的政治局会议可能将讨论党中央关于制定“十五五”规划建议的初稿,并提请10月份召开的二十届四中全会审议。此次会议定调“十五五”时期是“夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期”,在“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。党中央部署综合整治“内卷式”竞争。这是解决当前经济发展矛盾的关键举措,是深化经济体制改革的重要保障,也是推动企业实现创新发展、向价值链中高端攀升、不断增强发展韧性的有效路径。不同时代的“供给侧”改革,股市赋能的侧重点不同。1998年国企改革的侧重点是去产能、解决债务问题、建立现代企业制度,释放企业活力,为新一轮经济增长奠定基础。资本市场赋能体现在,通过IPO及国有股配售、并购重组,帮助国企建立现代企业制度改革,调整国有资产布局,盘活了国有资产,国企改革成为行情重要主线。本轮“反内卷”聚焦释放创新活力,助力高质量发展。资本市场赋能将更多体现在引导资源向有利于推动创新、提高效率的方向配置。2024年9月26日中共中央政治局会议“支持上市公司并购重组”。三、9月份行情展望:港股补涨动力已积蓄,震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开(一)港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。1. 港股补涨的动力,年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨港股补涨的动力,年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨,而不是A、H股同时上市的股票。从历史维度来看,截至2025年8月29日,港股恒生指数预测市盈率目前11.7倍,处于2015年以来59.40%分位数;恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍,仅处于2020年7月以来的29.9%分位数水平。2. 港股补涨的动力,中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。全球股市来看,港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍,明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍、日本日经225指数20倍、欧元区斯托克50指数16.2倍;风险溢价角度,恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%,相对10年期美债利率的风险溢价在3.8%左右,远高于美股的-0.64%的风险溢价水平,也高于日股3.38%以及欧股3.35%的风险溢价。(二)行情节奏上,港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险,但大方向是向上9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡,但是,牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。美股当前估值高、VIX过低,警惕美股2025年9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整,或者,美联储超预期没有降息。不过,美联储四季度大概率要降息,卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困,特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始,降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值,港股性价比强于美股。9月初之后,A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股2025年7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力,或导致2025年9月A股行情震荡蓄势。历史上看,A股牛市阶段的震荡调整,港股不一定跟随,反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段,港股跟随调整的仅有4次,但在震荡调整阶段,恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399006":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1,"HSCEI":1.1,"HSI":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":484188915757128,"gmtCreate":1759239151392,"gmtModify":1759239153180,"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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