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虎咪

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IP属地：贵州

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03-11

确实是好企业，不过第一天就套住了！炒高了让我接盘，你这个坏蛋

港股通为贝壳注入“确定性溢价” 或将吸引百亿级增量资金

01-03

$联想控股(03396)$ 市值管理跟它没关系

2024-12-31

谢谢理解

吴晓波：没有联想、没有柳传志这一代创业者，就不会有今天中国的电脑产业

2024-08-24

国家税收怎么没提，这个不是小数

医保局为人民大胜心脉医疗： 6800 成本到病人消费者 12 万的日子结束了

2024-08-16

$联想控股(03396)$ 股价太悲催了，看不到希望

2024-04-03

$联想控股(03396)$ 刚回来又遭一刀

2024-03-16

$药明生物(02269)$ 已下注

2024-02-07

$联想控股(03396)$ 持有大概七八年了，就因为柳老爷子一句话，“联想控股被低估了忍无可忍割了”今天终于忍不住割了大部分仓位

2024-01-19

$微创医疗(00853)$ 挺不住了，想割

2023-12-23

这行都是民营企业，怎么搞都行

游戏新规带崩股价，但也没想象的那么糟

2023-12-22

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 版署还我钱来[捂脸]

2023-12-22

监管太多，饶了股市吧

2023-08-31

$联想控股(03396)$ 上市九年了，股价一年比一年低，还要等几年？

2022-09-23

骗人吧？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-09-16

$联想控股(03396)$为什么不回购呀！

2022-08-01

$联想控股(03396)$亏损惨啊

2022-05-20

$联想控股(03396)$第一重仓股加油

2022-04-29

NN的，港股通不开

恒生科技指数涨超11%，京东大涨超23%

2022-04-14

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-04-12

$小米集团-W(01810)$我买进卖岀不知道几回了！损失惨重啊

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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"确实是好企业，不过第一天就套住了！炒高了让我接盘，你这个坏蛋","listText":"确实是好企业，不过第一天就套住了！炒高了让我接盘，你这个坏蛋","text":"确实是好企业，不过第一天就套住了！炒高了让我接盘，你这个坏蛋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/412298028859936","repostId":"2518057711","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2518057711","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1741689798,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2518057711?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-03-11 18:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"港股通为贝壳注入“确定性溢价” 或将吸引百亿级增量资金","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2518057711","media":"格隆汇","summary":"价值重估闸门已开","content":"<html><body><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-e0b40cff-0e96-4482-bff9-a43f4c9257eb.jpg?guru_height=44&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></p><p><span>3月10日，新的港股通标的调整正式生效。</span></p><p><span>随着南向资金的闸门正式开启，内地投资者对许多优质港股标的期盼已久的“一键买入”时刻也来了。数据显示，当天，南下资金净买入港股超270亿港元，创历史单日最高净买入纪录。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1ee30-15946da9-670f-49ee-baf8-681cb12034ba.jpg?guru_height=555&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></p><p><span>与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>也正式跻身港股通标的。从机构到散户，这场酝酿数月的“价值重估”正式进入实战——内地投资者的交易终端上，“买入键”已为贝壳亮起。</span></p><p><span>自2022年双重主要上市登陆港交所以来，贝壳持续以稳健的财务表现和积极的股东回报策略赢得市场信任。如今，随着港股通通道的开启，贝壳或将迎来更广泛的国内投资者群体，尤其是在房地产行业从“规模”转向“品质服务”的转型期，作为科技驱动的一站式新居住服务平台，贝壳以“一体三翼”战略构建的家装、租赁等新增长引擎，正与政策引导的居住消费升级、科技赋能产业发展的趋势深度共振。</span></p><p><span><strong>可以说，港股通的纳入，不仅是一张流动性的“通行证”，更是价值锚定的“催化剂”。</strong></span></p><p><span>当更多熟悉本土市场逻辑的资金与贝壳的创新商业模式相遇，这场价值重估的故事才刚刚拉开帷幕。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>价值重估闸门已开</span></font></h3><p><span>作为港股市场与内地资本互联互通的核心纽带，港股通已成为价值发现功能最显著的跨境投资通道。</span></p><p><span>自港股通开通至今，南下资金的累计净流入规模已突破4万亿港元大关，有时单日成交占比甚至能达到港股全部成交的近一半份额，持续为港股通企业注入流动性溢价。</span></p><p><span>对于寻求价值重估的港股企业而言，跻身港股通名单不仅意味着跻身资本市场“战略高地”，更将获得跨境资本的双向赋能。</span></p><p><span>换句话来说，贝壳作为中国居住服务龙头企业，相较于国际投资者，更熟悉国内产业逻辑的南下资金有望加速进场，形成“本土认知差”驱动的估值锚定效应。</span></p><p><span>纳入港股通后，贝壳将吸引更为多元化的投资者群体。一方面，主动资金会因贝壳的行业地位和增长潜力而配置；另一方面，指数基金等被动资金也会因港股通的纳入而自动流入。这将显著提升贝壳港股的流动性和活跃度，增强市场对贝壳的关注度和信心，进而提升其在资本市场的影响力和估值水平，为企业长期价值的提升奠定坚实基础。</span></p><p><span>对此，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>研报指出，贝壳入通后股票的流动性、关注度将得到提升，能够扩大投资者基础，利于更多资金流入。</span></p><p><span>即便是纳入初期阶段，南向资金就可能带来数十亿量级的活水。这种结构性资金对于贝壳而言不仅构成股价安全垫，更能够推动其股价长期增长。</span></p><p><span>参考<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、小米等同类型企业纳入港股通后的市场表现，新纳入标的往往伴随南向资金的持续涌入与流动性跃升。</span></p><p><span>以阿里巴巴为例，去年9月入通后的三个月，公司港股通渠道净买入金额快速攀升至800亿港元，持股占比突破4.6%，目前已达到7.3%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/93002-f614c6ac-4294-4981-93c9-2c37d0e13b1d.jpg?guru_height=691&amp;guru_width=549\"/></p><p><span>更早入通的腾讯、小米等同类公司亦呈现类似规律，目前在港股均实现了9%至21%的交易量增量。按照10%的交易量增量估算，长期来看，贝壳的入通将带来超过200亿的增量资金。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/90f7a-ead5fe84-b393-43e7-9135-6cbe4165b179.jpg?guru_height=517&amp;guru_width=828\"/></p><p><span>若将视角转向股价表现，这种资金与估值的正向循环更为直观。</span></p><p><span>富途牛牛数据显示，腾讯入通三个月内涨幅逼近70%，至今累计涨幅超100%。而小米入通的一年时间里，股价翻涨近3倍，五年周期维度涨幅更突破5倍，印证了稀缺龙头对接本土资金后的价值重估动能。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c9939-5b908760-8019-4f79-aa5a-9146281d0dc1.jpg?guru_height=436&amp;guru_width=829\"/></p><p><span><strong>由此不难判断，贝壳作为居住服务赛道头部企业，或有望复制这一路径。</strong></span></p><p><span>从美股回港双重上市到本土资本定价权接棒，贝壳正在演绎中概股价值重估的进阶版本。</span></p><p><span>短期看，南向资金的配置惯性叠加政策宽松周期，或催生贝壳估值修复的贝塔行情；长期而言，其作为科技驱动的一站式服务平台已覆盖数亿家庭，这种“数据+场景+服务”的优势，将在资本市场的价值坐标系中找到应有的刻度。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>在流动性红利中捕获确定性阿尔法</span></font></h3><p><span>毫无疑问，贝壳纳入港股通，首先将迎接的是一场流动性的红利。但究其本质来看，这更将是一次资金配置效率提升与价值重估的共振。</span></p><p><span>可以看到，入通当日，贝壳港股一度冲高大涨近8%，尽管随后收跌，但自今年2月以来，公司港股累计涨幅已经超过40%，大幅跑赢恒生指数。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a276d-42067ac2-f63e-4f5b-8e30-92b96b5ed765.jpg?guru_height=498&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></p><p><span>由此也就能理解，当日大幅的波动，不排除是前期获利资金借利好消息兑现收益。值得注意的是，隔夜美股大跌，贝壳等一众中概股也遭遇重挫。</span></p><p><span>不过对于真正看好公司的投资者而言，理应穿透短期情绪波动，在“市场明牌”与“暗线预期”中锚定关键信号，以此才能捕获可持续的阿尔法机会。</span></p><p><strong><span>a·市场明牌：业绩韧性与股东回报的确定性</span></strong></p><p><span>从市场明牌来看，来自公司业绩的韧性与股东回报的确定性。</span></p><p><span>毫无疑问，贝壳当下受到多项利好因素带动。</span></p><p><span>其一，从宏观政策层面来看，去年12月，中央会议首提“稳住楼市”，楼市的稳定与否已经上升到宏观全局，而近期两会，相关提法也被写入政府工作报告。报告明确提出：“稳住楼市”“持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳”。</span></p><p><span>对此，多家机构解读，认为此次工作报告从宏观、财政、货币政策到楼市政策等均释放了积极的信号，有助于2025年房地产行业的平稳健康发展。随着核心城市楼市交易及土地市场回暖，叠加政策支持及传统营销季推动，3月房地产市场有望延续回稳态势，核心城市或出现“小阳春”行情。</span></p><p><span>其二，结合市场实际情况来看，楼市的复苏正肉眼可见，主要城市的二手成交量表现抢眼，新房市场也在持续放量。国家从统计数据看，去年四季度，新建商品房销售面积和销售额实现了正增长。</span></p><p><span><strong>很显然，楼市的持续活跃，也将有望带动贝壳总交易额(GTV)，进而推动后续业绩取得超预期表现。</strong></span></p><p><span>对此，近期花旗发布研报称，贝壳纳入港股通后，预期公司总交易额(GTV)带动的上季业绩或小幅超越预期及强劲的首季业绩，维持“买入”评级，目标价由60.72港元上调至72.86港元。</span></p><p><span>从公司既有业务板块来看，存量房业务方面，作为决定业绩的关键基本盘，其有望持续受益于核心城市二手房交易回暖。而新房业务方面，贝壳的渠道价值被更多看到，有着优于市场行业的表现。</span></p><p><span>此外，新业务方面，贝壳第二曲线的爆发逻辑持续得到验证。其中，家装业务方面，贝壳整装业务规模、品质、效率的正循环已经构建。租赁业务方面，也正不断贡献业绩增量，后续随着宏观经济修复带动需求提升，也将进一步释放弹性。</span></p><p><span>接下来再关注到公司的回购与分红动作。</span></p><p><span>作为一家始终高度重视股东回报的公司，贝壳通过积极的股票回购及分红，与投资者共享发展红利。</span></p><p><span>据悉，2024年全年，贝壳共斥资约7.16亿美元回购股票，回购股数约占2023年末已发行总股本的3.89%。而今年以来，公司在1月份回购数超1300万股，涉及资金约7500万美元。贝壳的股票回购采取“注销方式”，实实在在直接增厚投资者收益。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/84517-a85657ae-1749-4a79-a8b2-db4d370e8031.jpg?guru_height=652&amp;guru_width=811\"/></p><p><span>同时还可以看到，在过去两年中，贝壳分别派发了约2亿美元的特别分红和约4亿美元的2023年末期现金分红。</span></p><p><span>大手笔的回购与分红，不仅释放了公司看好其自身未来发展的积极信号，同时也有助于稳定市场预期，提振市场信心，并为当下南下资金的入场提供了安全边际。</span></p><p><span><strong>b·市场暗线：面向更广阔居住服务与技术赋能的长期叙事</strong></span></p><p><span>从市场暗线预期来看，贝壳的居住服务赛道和AI等技术的赋能将是评估其长期价值增长的关键。</span></p><p><span>首先，从交易到居住，贝壳的业务已经形成了从前端帮助开发商的贝好家，到中端经纪服务，再到后端装修、租赁的居住服务链条。这种“一站式”的服务模式，不仅提升了用户体验，也为公司创造了更多元的收入结构，随着整个平台网络效应的持续释放，公司有望持续加固行业护城河，并以此获得更高的市场估值溢价。</span></p><p><span>其次，凭借庞大的用户行为数据叠加AI算法等前沿技术，贝壳能够精准挖掘客户需求，这种数据驱动的业务模式，不仅提升了服务效率，还为未来的数据资产变现与业务生态价值挖掘提供了巨大的潜力。</span></p><p><span>特别是，技术重构服务效率与成本结构也已经在贝壳的业务中得到验证，正不断释放更大的成长空间。</span></p><p><span>以奠定贝壳数字化发展基石的“楼盘字典”为例，截至2024年底，其系统已收录全国2.7亿套房屋的真实数据。在楼盘字典基础上，贝壳开发VR看房4.0、智能估价系统、交易风险预警等20余项核心应用，二手房交易周期缩短40%，虚假房源投诉率下降95%，服务品质与效率得到质的飞跃。</span></p><p><span>此外，在AI方面，贝壳还推出首款AIGC家装设计产品“设牛”，依靠自研的ChatHome大模型和“梦想家”图像大模型，可根据房间图片或户型图一键生成装修效果图，提高设计师和用户的沟通效率，并有效降低了服务成本。</span></p><p><span>同时，不容忽视的是贝壳成立的贝好家事业线，其致力于打造数据驱动型住宅开发服务平台，实现C2M（从消费者到制造者）。基于此，其打造包括精准需求洞察、用户深度参与和数据驱动决策等在内的一系列能力，贝壳将在居住行业推出越来越多的好房子，同时降低开发商和产业链里的参与者在项目层面的风险，并释放更大的价值潜能。相信这也将是未来催化公司价值重估的重要看点所在。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\">03</font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>结语</span></font></h3><p><span>总的来看，港股通的纳入，不是贝壳估值潜力释放的终点，而是流动性红利下价值发现的新起点。</span></p><p><span>对于投资者而言，贝壳的业绩韧性与分红防御性提供了足够的“安全垫”，而其居住服务延伸与技术赋能打开了更具想象的估值空间。</span></p><p><span>当下，伴随科技领域突破性进展不断落地，引发中国资产的价值重估浪潮。作为脱胎于传统房地产领域，不断以数字化能力赋能行业、以科技引领产业创新发展的标杆，贝壳，显然不会缺席这场盛宴。</span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股通为贝壳注入“确定性溢价” 或将吸引百亿级增量资金</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股通为贝壳注入“确定性溢价” 或将吸引百亿级增量资金\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-11 18:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/1881548><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月10日，新的港股通标的调整正式生效。随着南向资金的闸门正式开启，内地投资者对许多优质港股标的期盼已久的“一键买入”时刻也来了。数据显示，当天，南下资金净买入港股超270亿港元，创历史单日最高净买入纪录。与此同时，贝壳也正式跻身港股通标的。从机构到散户，这场酝酿数月的“价值重估”正式进入实战——内地投资者的交易终端上，“买入键”已为贝壳亮起。自2022年双重主要上市登陆港交所以来，贝壳持续以稳健...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/1881548\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/e6f30-189866b5-aa71-4b9d-bcd4-c3758177aee5.jpg?guru_height=852&guru_width=1280","relate_stocks":{"LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0463099449.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","02423":"贝壳-W","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4588":"碎股","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK1097":"房地产服务","LU1688375341.USD":"贝莱德中国灵活股票基金","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","HSCEI":"国企指数","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","YANG":"三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion","LU1051769294.HKD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A6\"(HKDHDG) 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ACC","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","BK4509":"腾讯概念"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/1881548","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2518057711","content_text":"3月10日，新的港股通标的调整正式生效。随着南向资金的闸门正式开启，内地投资者对许多优质港股标的期盼已久的“一键买入”时刻也来了。数据显示，当天，南下资金净买入港股超270亿港元，创历史单日最高净买入纪录。与此同时，贝壳也正式跻身港股通标的。从机构到散户，这场酝酿数月的“价值重估”正式进入实战——内地投资者的交易终端上，“买入键”已为贝壳亮起。自2022年双重主要上市登陆港交所以来，贝壳持续以稳健的财务表现和积极的股东回报策略赢得市场信任。如今，随着港股通通道的开启，贝壳或将迎来更广泛的国内投资者群体，尤其是在房地产行业从“规模”转向“品质服务”的转型期，作为科技驱动的一站式新居住服务平台，贝壳以“一体三翼”战略构建的家装、租赁等新增长引擎，正与政策引导的居住消费升级、科技赋能产业发展的趋势深度共振。可以说，港股通的纳入，不仅是一张流动性的“通行证”，更是价值锚定的“催化剂”。当更多熟悉本土市场逻辑的资金与贝壳的创新商业模式相遇，这场价值重估的故事才刚刚拉开帷幕。01价值重估闸门已开作为港股市场与内地资本互联互通的核心纽带，港股通已成为价值发现功能最显著的跨境投资通道。自港股通开通至今，南下资金的累计净流入规模已突破4万亿港元大关，有时单日成交占比甚至能达到港股全部成交的近一半份额，持续为港股通企业注入流动性溢价。对于寻求价值重估的港股企业而言，跻身港股通名单不仅意味着跻身资本市场“战略高地”，更将获得跨境资本的双向赋能。换句话来说，贝壳作为中国居住服务龙头企业，相较于国际投资者，更熟悉国内产业逻辑的南下资金有望加速进场，形成“本土认知差”驱动的估值锚定效应。纳入港股通后，贝壳将吸引更为多元化的投资者群体。一方面，主动资金会因贝壳的行业地位和增长潜力而配置；另一方面，指数基金等被动资金也会因港股通的纳入而自动流入。这将显著提升贝壳港股的流动性和活跃度，增强市场对贝壳的关注度和信心，进而提升其在资本市场的影响力和估值水平，为企业长期价值的提升奠定坚实基础。对此，国金证券研报指出，贝壳入通后股票的流动性、关注度将得到提升，能够扩大投资者基础，利于更多资金流入。即便是纳入初期阶段，南向资金就可能带来数十亿量级的活水。这种结构性资金对于贝壳而言不仅构成股价安全垫，更能够推动其股价长期增长。参考阿里巴巴、腾讯、小米等同类型企业纳入港股通后的市场表现，新纳入标的往往伴随南向资金的持续涌入与流动性跃升。以阿里巴巴为例，去年9月入通后的三个月，公司港股通渠道净买入金额快速攀升至800亿港元，持股占比突破4.6%，目前已达到7.3%。更早入通的腾讯、小米等同类公司亦呈现类似规律，目前在港股均实现了9%至21%的交易量增量。按照10%的交易量增量估算，长期来看，贝壳的入通将带来超过200亿的增量资金。若将视角转向股价表现，这种资金与估值的正向循环更为直观。富途牛牛数据显示，腾讯入通三个月内涨幅逼近70%，至今累计涨幅超100%。而小米入通的一年时间里，股价翻涨近3倍，五年周期维度涨幅更突破5倍，印证了稀缺龙头对接本土资金后的价值重估动能。由此不难判断，贝壳作为居住服务赛道头部企业，或有望复制这一路径。从美股回港双重上市到本土资本定价权接棒，贝壳正在演绎中概股价值重估的进阶版本。短期看，南向资金的配置惯性叠加政策宽松周期，或催生贝壳估值修复的贝塔行情；长期而言，其作为科技驱动的一站式服务平台已覆盖数亿家庭，这种“数据+场景+服务”的优势，将在资本市场的价值坐标系中找到应有的刻度。02在流动性红利中捕获确定性阿尔法毫无疑问，贝壳纳入港股通，首先将迎接的是一场流动性的红利。但究其本质来看，这更将是一次资金配置效率提升与价值重估的共振。可以看到，入通当日，贝壳港股一度冲高大涨近8%，尽管随后收跌，但自今年2月以来，公司港股累计涨幅已经超过40%，大幅跑赢恒生指数。由此也就能理解，当日大幅的波动，不排除是前期获利资金借利好消息兑现收益。值得注意的是，隔夜美股大跌，贝壳等一众中概股也遭遇重挫。不过对于真正看好公司的投资者而言，理应穿透短期情绪波动，在“市场明牌”与“暗线预期”中锚定关键信号，以此才能捕获可持续的阿尔法机会。a·市场明牌：业绩韧性与股东回报的确定性从市场明牌来看，来自公司业绩的韧性与股东回报的确定性。毫无疑问，贝壳当下受到多项利好因素带动。其一，从宏观政策层面来看，去年12月，中央会议首提“稳住楼市”，楼市的稳定与否已经上升到宏观全局，而近期两会，相关提法也被写入政府工作报告。报告明确提出：“稳住楼市”“持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳”。对此，多家机构解读，认为此次工作报告从宏观、财政、货币政策到楼市政策等均释放了积极的信号，有助于2025年房地产行业的平稳健康发展。随着核心城市楼市交易及土地市场回暖，叠加政策支持及传统营销季推动，3月房地产市场有望延续回稳态势，核心城市或出现“小阳春”行情。其二，结合市场实际情况来看，楼市的复苏正肉眼可见，主要城市的二手成交量表现抢眼，新房市场也在持续放量。国家从统计数据看，去年四季度，新建商品房销售面积和销售额实现了正增长。很显然，楼市的持续活跃，也将有望带动贝壳总交易额(GTV)，进而推动后续业绩取得超预期表现。对此，近期花旗发布研报称，贝壳纳入港股通后，预期公司总交易额(GTV)带动的上季业绩或小幅超越预期及强劲的首季业绩，维持“买入”评级，目标价由60.72港元上调至72.86港元。从公司既有业务板块来看，存量房业务方面，作为决定业绩的关键基本盘，其有望持续受益于核心城市二手房交易回暖。而新房业务方面，贝壳的渠道价值被更多看到，有着优于市场行业的表现。此外，新业务方面，贝壳第二曲线的爆发逻辑持续得到验证。其中，家装业务方面，贝壳整装业务规模、品质、效率的正循环已经构建。租赁业务方面，也正不断贡献业绩增量，后续随着宏观经济修复带动需求提升，也将进一步释放弹性。接下来再关注到公司的回购与分红动作。作为一家始终高度重视股东回报的公司，贝壳通过积极的股票回购及分红，与投资者共享发展红利。据悉，2024年全年，贝壳共斥资约7.16亿美元回购股票，回购股数约占2023年末已发行总股本的3.89%。而今年以来，公司在1月份回购数超1300万股，涉及资金约7500万美元。贝壳的股票回购采取“注销方式”，实实在在直接增厚投资者收益。同时还可以看到，在过去两年中，贝壳分别派发了约2亿美元的特别分红和约4亿美元的2023年末期现金分红。大手笔的回购与分红，不仅释放了公司看好其自身未来发展的积极信号，同时也有助于稳定市场预期，提振市场信心，并为当下南下资金的入场提供了安全边际。b·市场暗线：面向更广阔居住服务与技术赋能的长期叙事从市场暗线预期来看，贝壳的居住服务赛道和AI等技术的赋能将是评估其长期价值增长的关键。首先，从交易到居住，贝壳的业务已经形成了从前端帮助开发商的贝好家，到中端经纪服务，再到后端装修、租赁的居住服务链条。这种“一站式”的服务模式，不仅提升了用户体验，也为公司创造了更多元的收入结构，随着整个平台网络效应的持续释放，公司有望持续加固行业护城河，并以此获得更高的市场估值溢价。其次，凭借庞大的用户行为数据叠加AI算法等前沿技术，贝壳能够精准挖掘客户需求，这种数据驱动的业务模式，不仅提升了服务效率，还为未来的数据资产变现与业务生态价值挖掘提供了巨大的潜力。特别是，技术重构服务效率与成本结构也已经在贝壳的业务中得到验证，正不断释放更大的成长空间。以奠定贝壳数字化发展基石的“楼盘字典”为例，截至2024年底，其系统已收录全国2.7亿套房屋的真实数据。在楼盘字典基础上，贝壳开发VR看房4.0、智能估价系统、交易风险预警等20余项核心应用，二手房交易周期缩短40%，虚假房源投诉率下降95%，服务品质与效率得到质的飞跃。此外，在AI方面，贝壳还推出首款AIGC家装设计产品“设牛”，依靠自研的ChatHome大模型和“梦想家”图像大模型，可根据房间图片或户型图一键生成装修效果图，提高设计师和用户的沟通效率，并有效降低了服务成本。同时，不容忽视的是贝壳成立的贝好家事业线，其致力于打造数据驱动型住宅开发服务平台，实现C2M（从消费者到制造者）。基于此，其打造包括精准需求洞察、用户深度参与和数据驱动决策等在内的一系列能力，贝壳将在居住行业推出越来越多的好房子，同时降低开发商和产业链里的参与者在项目层面的风险，并释放更大的价值潜能。相信这也将是未来催化公司价值重估的重要看点所在。03结语总的来看，港股通的纳入，不是贝壳估值潜力释放的终点，而是流动性红利下价值发现的新起点。对于投资者而言，贝壳的业绩韧性与分红防御性提供了足够的“安全垫”，而其居住服务延伸与技术赋能打开了更具想象的估值空间。当下，伴随科技领域突破性进展不断落地，引发中国资产的价值重估浪潮。作为脱胎于传统房地产领域，不断以数字化能力赋能行业、以科技引领产业创新发展的标杆，贝壳，显然不会缺席这场盛宴。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02423":0.9,"BEKE":1,"HSCEI":1,"HSTECH":1,"YANG":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388481300525488,"gmtCreate":1735886856265,"gmtModify":1735886857631,"author":{"id":"3493463570621632","authorId":"3493463570621632","name":"虎咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b5bbe388ed95780c7fc441067b6c60","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493463570621632","authorIdStr":"3493463570621632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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市值管理跟它没关系","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388481300525488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387431082951120,"gmtCreate":1735629119691,"gmtModify":1735629121308,"author":{"id":"3493463570621632","authorId":"3493463570621632","name":"虎咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b5bbe388ed95780c7fc441067b6c60","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493463570621632","authorIdStr":"3493463570621632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"谢谢理解","listText":"谢谢理解","text":"谢谢理解","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387431082951120","repostId":"2495763296","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2495763296","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1735620480,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2495763296?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-31 12:48","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"吴晓波：没有联想、没有柳传志这一代创业者，就不会有今天中国的电脑产业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2495763296","media":"新浪科技","summary":"新浪科技讯 12月31日午间消息，在近日的“预见2025·吴晓波年终秀”上，财经作家、巴九灵创始人吴晓波在年终秀下半场《预见2025，找到新周期的引擎》环节特别提到联想AI PC。吴晓波认为，联想走过的四十年，凝聚了半部电脑史。他说，“如今，联想一年的营收超过4000亿元，约80%的营收来自中国以外，约80%的生产在中国地区完成。从某种意义上讲，没有联想、没有柳传志这一代创业者，就不会有今天中国的电脑产业。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/116/w550h366/20241231/16e8-48e1359173f5c5a687361b71a2b926c9.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　新浪科技讯 12月31日午间消息，在近日的“预见2025·吴晓波年终秀”上，财经作家、巴九灵创始人吴晓波在年终秀下半场《预见2025，找到新周期的引擎》环节特别提到联想AI PC。他表示，人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>以周的速度重塑世界，初代“AI原住民”正在诞生，一部AI电脑可以让使用者率先成为“AI原住民”。</p>\n<p>　　“AI正在以周的速度发生变化。”吴晓波认为，拥有一部AI电脑，就意味着能先行一步，成为AI时代的原住民，充分享受AI带来的个性化学习和生命体验。在这场技术革新中，联想AI PC走在了前列，其影响力已渗透至多个领域。他进一步解释道，“AI原住民”是率先使用了AI工具的人，他们会充分利用AI享受前所未有的个性化学习和生命体验。</p>\n<p>　　“实际上，当我们拥有了一台AI电脑，一部AI手机以后，我们的生命中就会出现一个‘Agent’——智能体。”他说，“在联想的AI电脑里，就有一个叫做‘联想小天’的Agent，它将成为未来我们每个人实现信息交互的AI第一入口，它的背后还有1500多款AI应用，我相信未来这些应用的数量会越来越多，借由各种各样的平台，与家居、电脑、手机、汽车等进行跨平台连接。”</p>\n<p>　　自世界上第一台计算机诞生至今已近80年，个人电脑的出现也走过了40多年的历程。吴晓波认为，联想走过的四十年，凝聚了半部电脑史。 “我必须利用这次年终秀的机会来致敬联想。这家企业，是过去几年来被污名化最严重的企业。”他说，“如今，联想一年的营收超过4000亿元，约80%的营收来自中国以外，约80%的生产在中国地区完成。从某种意义上讲，没有联想、没有柳传志这一代创业者，就不会有今天中国的电脑产业。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：李昂 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n吴晓波：没有联想、没有柳传志这一代创业者，就不会有今天中国的电脑产业\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-31 12:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2024-12-31/doc-ineciptx0566073.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新浪科技讯 12月31日午间消息，在近日的“预见2025·吴晓波年终秀”上，财经作家、巴九灵创始人吴晓波在年终秀下半场《预见2025，找到新周期的引擎》环节特别提到联想AI PC。他表示，人工智能以周的速度重塑世界，初代“AI原住民”正在诞生，一部AI电脑可以让使用者率先成为“AI原住民”。\n　　“AI正在以周的速度发生变化。”吴晓波认为，拥有一部AI电脑，就意味着能先行一步，成为AI时代的原住民...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2024-12-31/doc-ineciptx0566073.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"80992":"联想集团-R","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation A-ACC-SGD","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 SGD","LU1366334578.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LNVGY":"联想集团ADR","BK1526":"科网股","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","00992":"联想集团","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0791591158.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0791590937.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD)","LU0264606111.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 USD","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0032431581.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1607":"新IT概念","LU1366334651.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","BK1193":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2024-12-31/doc-ineciptx0566073.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2495763296","content_text":"新浪科技讯 12月31日午间消息，在近日的“预见2025·吴晓波年终秀”上，财经作家、巴九灵创始人吴晓波在年终秀下半场《预见2025，找到新周期的引擎》环节特别提到联想AI PC。他表示，人工智能以周的速度重塑世界，初代“AI原住民”正在诞生，一部AI电脑可以让使用者率先成为“AI原住民”。\n　　“AI正在以周的速度发生变化。”吴晓波认为，拥有一部AI电脑，就意味着能先行一步，成为AI时代的原住民，充分享受AI带来的个性化学习和生命体验。在这场技术革新中，联想AI PC走在了前列，其影响力已渗透至多个领域。他进一步解释道，“AI原住民”是率先使用了AI工具的人，他们会充分利用AI享受前所未有的个性化学习和生命体验。\n　　“实际上，当我们拥有了一台AI电脑，一部AI手机以后，我们的生命中就会出现一个‘Agent’——智能体。”他说，“在联想的AI电脑里，就有一个叫做‘联想小天’的Agent，它将成为未来我们每个人实现信息交互的AI第一入口，它的背后还有1500多款AI应用，我相信未来这些应用的数量会越来越多，借由各种各样的平台，与家居、电脑、手机、汽车等进行跨平台连接。”\n　　自世界上第一台计算机诞生至今已近80年，个人电脑的出现也走过了40多年的历程。吴晓波认为，联想走过的四十年，凝聚了半部电脑史。 “我必须利用这次年终秀的机会来致敬联想。这家企业，是过去几年来被污名化最严重的企业。”他说，“如今，联想一年的营收超过4000亿元，约80%的营收来自中国以外，约80%的生产在中国地区完成。从某种意义上讲，没有联想、没有柳传志这一代创业者，就不会有今天中国的电脑产业。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：李昂","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"80992":0.6,"00992":1,"LNVGY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341772507127912,"gmtCreate":1724461182096,"gmtModify":1724461183981,"author":{"id":"3493463570621632","authorId":"3493463570621632","name":"虎咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b5bbe388ed95780c7fc441067b6c60","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493463570621632","authorIdStr":"3493463570621632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"国家税收怎么没提，这个不是小数","listText":"国家税收怎么没提，这个不是小数","text":"国家税收怎么没提，这个不是小数","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341772507127912","repostId":"2461551982","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2461551982","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1724426526,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2461551982?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-23 23:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"医保局为人民大胜心脉医疗： 6800 成本到病人消费者 12 万的日子结束了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461551982","media":"反做空一线","summary":"心脉医疗在公司官网发布了对国家医保局的问询回复。1 、心脉医疗决定将 Castor支架等系列胸主支架产品终端价格调整为7万元左右或以下，降价幅度 40%左右或以上。此前的价格是 12 万。心脉医疗在此事件中或存在信息披露的问题。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240823232250146v201ra9pload1iw\"/><p>来源|国际投行研究报告</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/0N8z6kfCozSiadrRBnkm3JhxtG4KdR3aqvAbcgqtmTJHJAg9fQ6XKmicZmZWj0sLKyjzdj0jsIXo9NtlwGH3hbOg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>在医保局的高压之下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688016\">心脉医疗</a>很快服软了。心脉医疗在公司官网发布了对国家医保局的问询回复。</p><p>1 、心脉医疗决定将 Castor支架等系列胸主支架产品终端价格调整为7万元左右或以下，降价幅度 40%左右或以上。此前的价格是 12 万。</p><p>2 、公司的回复显示，目前公司自己的毛利率为 40%左右，具体来说单位生产成本为最高为 6800 元，利润 20000 左右，而经销商的成本（拿货 5 .0422万），而最终消费者买单价格平均为为 10.6194万元，卖一单位的利润是 3.1386 万元，比公司还多 50%利润。不去说这个里面的毛呢，这个显然是不合理的。</p><p>3 、有意思的是，心脉医疗表示这次是“公司决定在基本不影响出厂价格和利润的情况下,大幅压缩流通环节过高加价,”。这是比较奇怪，除非公司改变经销策略，否则这怎么能做到，本来人家买一单位利润是 3.1386 万元，现在降价 5 万，想不到办法。</p><p>4 、对于股市投资者来说，这次事件的打击很大。心脉医疗在此事件中或存在信息披露的问题。首先，国家医保局早就找公司谈了，公司没有发布公告也没有任何其他信息，一直到医保局公开问询。第二，公司在发布澄清声明中也没有讲清楚。第三，公司回复没通过上市公司公告，而是在网站直接发布。投资者和律师或可以根据证券法起诉公司。</p><p><strong>心脉医疗同意降价</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240823232311808v2018rp50kv50hg\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240823232313039v201i2iz2vaytp7\"/><p>公司决定在基本不影响出厂价格和利润的情况下,大幅压缩流通环节过高加价,将 Castor支架等系列胸主支架产品终端价格调整为7万元左右或以下，降价幅度 40%左右或以上，价格标准与行业内一致，以实际行动来减轻患者和医保的压力，共同构建健康有序、可持续发展的市场环境。</p><p><strong>公司买一单位利润为 2万元左右，单位生产成本为 6800 元</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240823232319889v20159xk92bxe7b\"/><p><strong>经销商卖一单位利润为 3.138 万元</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240823232334325v201u0l7vj5ally\"/><p><strong>股价大跌投资者可以根据证券法起诉</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240823232340974v20176sgji1of1e\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240823232346764v201b7vc4y3jw9d\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>医保局为人民大胜心脉医疗： 6800 成本到病人消费者 12 万的日子结束了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n医保局为人民大胜心脉医疗： 6800 成本到病人消费者 12 万的日子结束了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-23 23:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202408232323499f4ccd8e&s=b><strong>反做空一线</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源|国际投行研究报告在医保局的高压之下，心脉医疗很快服软了。心脉医疗在公司官网发布了对国家医保局的问询回复。1 、心脉医疗决定将 Castor支架等系列胸主支架产品终端价格调整为7万元左右或以下，降价幅度 40%左右或以上。此前的价格是 12 万。2 、公司的回复显示，目前公司自己的毛利率为 40%左右，具体来说单位生产成本为最高为 6800 元，利润 20000 左右，而经销商的成本（拿货 5...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202408232323499f4ccd8e&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"688016":"心脉医疗","BK0251":"专用设备"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202408232323499f4ccd8e&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2461551982","content_text":"来源|国际投行研究报告在医保局的高压之下，心脉医疗很快服软了。心脉医疗在公司官网发布了对国家医保局的问询回复。1 、心脉医疗决定将 Castor支架等系列胸主支架产品终端价格调整为7万元左右或以下，降价幅度 40%左右或以上。此前的价格是 12 万。2 、公司的回复显示，目前公司自己的毛利率为 40%左右，具体来说单位生产成本为最高为 6800 元，利润 20000 左右，而经销商的成本（拿货 5 .0422万），而最终消费者买单价格平均为为 10.6194万元，卖一单位的利润是 3.1386 万元，比公司还多 50%利润。不去说这个里面的毛呢，这个显然是不合理的。3 、有意思的是，心脉医疗表示这次是“公司决定在基本不影响出厂价格和利润的情况下,大幅压缩流通环节过高加价,”。这是比较奇怪，除非公司改变经销策略，否则这怎么能做到，本来人家买一单位利润是 3.1386 万元，现在降价 5 万，想不到办法。4 、对于股市投资者来说，这次事件的打击很大。心脉医疗在此事件中或存在信息披露的问题。首先，国家医保局早就找公司谈了，公司没有发布公告也没有任何其他信息，一直到医保局公开问询。第二，公司在发布澄清声明中也没有讲清楚。第三，公司回复没通过上市公司公告，而是在网站直接发布。投资者和律师或可以根据证券法起诉公司。心脉医疗同意降价公司决定在基本不影响出厂价格和利润的情况下,大幅压缩流通环节过高加价,将 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挺不住了，想割","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/264645853929624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":255097910681880,"gmtCreate":1703290825278,"gmtModify":1703290826783,"author":{"id":"3493463570621632","authorId":"3493463570621632","name":"虎咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b5bbe388ed95780c7fc441067b6c60","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493463570621632","authorIdStr":"3493463570621632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这行都是民营企业，怎么搞都行","listText":"这行都是民营企业，怎么搞都行","text":"这行都是民营企业，怎么搞都行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/255097910681880","repostId":"2393418360","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2393418360","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"新型财经科技信息服务提供商，专注TMT。技术改变商业，商业改变世界，我们纪录这个过程，并聚集这些改变世界的人。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"TMTPost","id":"1065587721","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c"},"pubTimestamp":1703256150,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2393418360?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-22 22:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"游戏新规带崩股价，但也没想象的那么糟","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2393418360","media":"TMTPost","summary":"游戏厂商如何应对？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ac1d91d3612466d92ac262b03c6c57e\" alt=\"\"/>作者｜吴一枭</p><p>12月22日，国家新闻出版署起草《网络游戏管理办法（草案征求意见稿）》（以下简称《办法》），现向社会公开征求意见。</p><p>《办法》中就网络游戏运营提出多项整改指示，涵盖游戏内容、用户消费、游戏币发放交易、虚拟道具抽取等多个领域。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52654c7779924adda3b1744210267f7d\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>图源：国家新闻出版署</p><p>受此影响，A股与港股游戏板块出现大幅下跌。截至收盘，A股方面<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002555\">三七互娱</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002517\">恺英网络</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002605\">姚记科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603258\">电魂网络</a>等集体跌停，港股方面<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>下跌9%，腾讯下跌12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>下跌24.6%。</p><h2 id=\"id_3301782319\">新规如何影响游戏产业？</h2><p>梳理《办法》后，发现它首先影响的腰尾部游戏厂商，其次才是头部大厂。</p><p>具体而言，《办法》第十八条中指出，网络游戏不得设置每日登录、首次充值、连续充值等诱导性奖励。所有网络游戏须设置用户充值限额，并在其服务规则中予以公示。</p><p>前者几乎覆盖国内所有采用GaaS模式的游戏产品，后者则着重针对高ARPU产品，比如以“类传奇”为首的MMO游戏与SLG游戏。</p><p>简而言之，这一条着重针对的是游戏的To C收入。这对于无法做出大DAU，只能把精力与资源放在高ARPU游戏的腰尾部游戏厂商而言会造成明显影响。小厂的游戏，多半采用都是“100个零氪玩家+10个小氪玩家+1个重氪玩家”模式，然后通过增设服务器来完成模式的复制粘贴，以此完成盈利目标。如若限消，这些产品的盈利能力将大打折扣。</p><p>相较于腰尾部厂商，头部大厂IP储备更加丰富，强大的导流能力使其拥有高DAU产品矩阵。在创收方面，他们并不单纯依赖玩家付费，To B收入同样也是重要一环。据项目经手人员透露，腾讯旗下战术竞技类手游《和平精英》的品牌联动报价基本皆在百万级别以上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7efc00bc344ffb2a9d0a72d50eb80\" alt=\"\"/>图源：和平精英官博</p><p>在《办法》中，可能会对头部大厂造成明显影响的是第二十五条，同一企业不得同时经营网络游戏币发放和网络游戏币交易服务。然网易旗下的虚拟道具交易平台“藏宝阁”，正是其游戏营销业务中的重要组成部分。</p><p>“藏宝阁”是网易热门游戏IP《梦幻西游》的衍生产物，自2008年起正式成立。在“藏宝阁”，玩家可以交易游戏中的虚拟道具与游戏账号，并直接以人民币结算。</p><p>在“藏宝阁”的加持下，《梦幻西游》成为部分“平民”玩家的一种谋生手段，而手头富裕的氪金玩家则可借此节省体验游戏的时间成本，平台从每笔交易中抽佣，三方受益，共同为《梦幻西游》打造出稳定的经济生态。</p><p>据数据网站Magic公布的2022年全球手游收入榜单显示，《梦幻西游》手游版全年营收约为6亿美元。作为网易旗下最赚钱的游戏，《梦幻西游》系列每年能为网易带来接近200亿元营收。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9c25e1c73c444f9e2badbec19f89be\" alt=\"\"/>图源：梦幻西游电脑版官博</p><p>发展至今，“藏宝阁”已经从《梦幻西游》的”定海神针“蜕变成网易全平台虚拟道具交易平台，其目前共计覆盖网易旗下18款端游与27款手游。因此”藏宝阁“的运营是否保持顺畅，与网易游戏板块营收存在直接关联。</p><p>对于《办法》第二十五条中所指的“同一企业”是否可以通过注册子公司来进行规避，目前尚不得知，有待进一步观察。</p><p>除上述部分外，《办法》还对游戏测试与小程序游戏作出调整指示。如第二十一条【技术测试规范】指出，网络游戏限额测试用户不得超过2万，测试用户资料做删档处理。</p><p>过去部分游戏公司会在游戏内测后期开启不删档内测，并在公测后对玩家的内测充值提供返利。如此做法一是为了提升用户转化，二是基于版号发放情况去做风险对冲。但随着《办法》出台，这条路从此将被堵死。</p><p>另外，成为今年游戏行业热点的小程序游戏同样也将得到进一步监管。《办法》第六十三条提出，对无故事情节、玩法简单、无充值消费的国产小程序网络游戏的管理，由国家出版主管部门根据《出版管理条例》及本办法的原则另行规定。</p><p>据《2023中国游戏产业报告》显示，2023年国内小程序游戏市场收入200亿元，同比增长300%。营收飞速增长的背后，是买量投放的大肆泛滥，许多用户曾对此感到十分困扰。在小程序游戏这一细分品类的监管力度加强后，这种情况或将出现改善。</p><h2 id=\"id_3538806541\">游戏厂商如何应对？</h2><p>据不完全统计，目前已有包括恺英网络、三七互娱、姚记科技、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002168\">惠程科技</a>等十余家上市游戏概念公司就《办法》作出回应。</p><p>资本市场，A股方面的恺英网络最先对该新规做出相应回应。恺英网络表示，目前对公司经营没有实质性影响。公司将认真学习研究、积极跟进反馈。</p><p>另外，知名游戏宣发平台<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02400\">心动公司</a>表示将积极配合新规落地，旗下自研产品从不依赖首充返利、每日签到等强运营手段。公司将充分落实新规精神和具体措施，共同促进行业健康发展。</p><p>作为全球最大的游戏厂商之一，腾讯游戏方面亦做出表示。</p><p>22日下午，腾讯游戏副总裁张巍称：“自从2021年未保新规发布以来，腾讯一直严格贯彻落实管理要求，目前未成年人的游戏时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00001\">长和</a>消费数据都处于历史最低水平。新的管理办法征求意见稿对于游戏的商业模式，运营节奏等关键要素并无本质改变。监管部门发布新的管理办法征求意见稿向业界、社会充分征求意见，相信更有利于游戏行业的有序，健康发展。腾讯游戏将继续坚持技术创新，文化引领的精品战略，在主管部门的支持下，践行中国游戏产业的高质量发展。”</p><p>今日港股收盘后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>发布公告表示今日已回购约359万股股份，共计耗资约10.01亿港元，价格区间在263.8港元—317港元。</p><p>网易这边，其港股收盘于122.0港元每股后，公司市值今日总计蒸发约1281.56亿港元。对于《办法》，网易目前没有作出回应。</p><p>除了回应资本市场的声音之外，已经有游戏公司迅速在玩法上做出相应调整。</p><p>《办法》目前虽然还只是在征求意见阶段，但它已经开始对即将发行的产品造成影响。据《第一财经》报道，今日发布的一款游戏因“每日签到”和部分其它设定与《办法》要求不符，因此该游戏的制作公司正在加班修改。</p><h2 id=\"id_1160895653\">潜在利好的因素在哪里？</h2><p>事实上，从2021年8月发布的《关于进一步严格管理切实防止未成年人沉迷网络游戏的通知》，到今年10月发布的《未成年人网络保护条例》，再到今天的《网络游戏管理办法（草案征求意见稿）》，可以明显看出，对于游戏行业，监管部门的态度始终保持从紧从严。</p><p>这份态度的背后，代表的是我国游戏行业发展趋势的转变。随着人口红利的降低与玩家付费习惯的培养，“游戏精品化”的呼声变得愈发明显，同质化严重的劣质产品开始逐渐被时代抛弃，且这一淘汰进程正在变得越来越快。</p><p>面对这一趋势，腾讯公司高级副总裁马晓轶在2023年腾讯游戏发布会上就曾表示：“腾讯游戏正在从一家平台型公司向产品型公司转变。”</p><p>在今年TGA上，腾讯公布旗下新作《最后的哨兵》。据负责该项目制作的光子工作室透露，这将会是该工作室的首款3A级开放世界游戏。外加上投资游戏科学所在研发中的《黑神话·悟空》，未来几年腾讯即将迎来两款3A大作。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b6e5a46853429aa403dc186e108b01\" alt=\"\"/>《最后的哨兵》概念图，图源：《最后的哨兵》官方X账号</p><p>从今日《办法》公布的内容上来看，如若日后《办法》正式落实执行，那么它将对游戏产品的留存与转化带来严峻挑战，从而推动游戏厂商在内容与运营上投入更多的精力与资源来获取用户更高的付费频率与更加长远的游戏生命周期。站在长期主义角度上看待此事，这对于游戏行业亦是利好。</p><p>另外，经历过一下午的动荡之后，“鸽派”声音终于传来。据澎湃透露，中国音数协会游戏工委内部人士表示：“既然是征求意见稿，表明目前阶段各界均可畅所欲言，以使其切实可行，更为完善。”由此看来，最终的结果或许并没有外界所想象的那么糟糕。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>游戏新规带崩股价，但也没想象的那么糟</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n游戏新规带崩股价，但也没想象的那么糟\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065587721\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">TMTPost </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-12-22 22:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ac1d91d3612466d92ac262b03c6c57e\" alt=\"\"/>作者｜吴一枭</p><p>12月22日，国家新闻出版署起草《网络游戏管理办法（草案征求意见稿）》（以下简称《办法》），现向社会公开征求意见。</p><p>《办法》中就网络游戏运营提出多项整改指示，涵盖游戏内容、用户消费、游戏币发放交易、虚拟道具抽取等多个领域。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52654c7779924adda3b1744210267f7d\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>图源：国家新闻出版署</p><p>受此影响，A股与港股游戏板块出现大幅下跌。截至收盘，A股方面<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002555\">三七互娱</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002517\">恺英网络</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002605\">姚记科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603258\">电魂网络</a>等集体跌停，港股方面<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>下跌9%，腾讯下跌12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>下跌24.6%。</p><h2 id=\"id_3301782319\">新规如何影响游戏产业？</h2><p>梳理《办法》后，发现它首先影响的腰尾部游戏厂商，其次才是头部大厂。</p><p>具体而言，《办法》第十八条中指出，网络游戏不得设置每日登录、首次充值、连续充值等诱导性奖励。所有网络游戏须设置用户充值限额，并在其服务规则中予以公示。</p><p>前者几乎覆盖国内所有采用GaaS模式的游戏产品，后者则着重针对高ARPU产品，比如以“类传奇”为首的MMO游戏与SLG游戏。</p><p>简而言之，这一条着重针对的是游戏的To C收入。这对于无法做出大DAU，只能把精力与资源放在高ARPU游戏的腰尾部游戏厂商而言会造成明显影响。小厂的游戏，多半采用都是“100个零氪玩家+10个小氪玩家+1个重氪玩家”模式，然后通过增设服务器来完成模式的复制粘贴，以此完成盈利目标。如若限消，这些产品的盈利能力将大打折扣。</p><p>相较于腰尾部厂商，头部大厂IP储备更加丰富，强大的导流能力使其拥有高DAU产品矩阵。在创收方面，他们并不单纯依赖玩家付费，To B收入同样也是重要一环。据项目经手人员透露，腾讯旗下战术竞技类手游《和平精英》的品牌联动报价基本皆在百万级别以上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7efc00bc344ffb2a9d0a72d50eb80\" alt=\"\"/>图源：和平精英官博</p><p>在《办法》中，可能会对头部大厂造成明显影响的是第二十五条，同一企业不得同时经营网络游戏币发放和网络游戏币交易服务。然网易旗下的虚拟道具交易平台“藏宝阁”，正是其游戏营销业务中的重要组成部分。</p><p>“藏宝阁”是网易热门游戏IP《梦幻西游》的衍生产物，自2008年起正式成立。在“藏宝阁”，玩家可以交易游戏中的虚拟道具与游戏账号，并直接以人民币结算。</p><p>在“藏宝阁”的加持下，《梦幻西游》成为部分“平民”玩家的一种谋生手段，而手头富裕的氪金玩家则可借此节省体验游戏的时间成本，平台从每笔交易中抽佣，三方受益，共同为《梦幻西游》打造出稳定的经济生态。</p><p>据数据网站Magic公布的2022年全球手游收入榜单显示，《梦幻西游》手游版全年营收约为6亿美元。作为网易旗下最赚钱的游戏，《梦幻西游》系列每年能为网易带来接近200亿元营收。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9c25e1c73c444f9e2badbec19f89be\" alt=\"\"/>图源：梦幻西游电脑版官博</p><p>发展至今，“藏宝阁”已经从《梦幻西游》的”定海神针“蜕变成网易全平台虚拟道具交易平台，其目前共计覆盖网易旗下18款端游与27款手游。因此”藏宝阁“的运营是否保持顺畅，与网易游戏板块营收存在直接关联。</p><p>对于《办法》第二十五条中所指的“同一企业”是否可以通过注册子公司来进行规避，目前尚不得知，有待进一步观察。</p><p>除上述部分外，《办法》还对游戏测试与小程序游戏作出调整指示。如第二十一条【技术测试规范】指出，网络游戏限额测试用户不得超过2万，测试用户资料做删档处理。</p><p>过去部分游戏公司会在游戏内测后期开启不删档内测，并在公测后对玩家的内测充值提供返利。如此做法一是为了提升用户转化，二是基于版号发放情况去做风险对冲。但随着《办法》出台，这条路从此将被堵死。</p><p>另外，成为今年游戏行业热点的小程序游戏同样也将得到进一步监管。《办法》第六十三条提出，对无故事情节、玩法简单、无充值消费的国产小程序网络游戏的管理，由国家出版主管部门根据《出版管理条例》及本办法的原则另行规定。</p><p>据《2023中国游戏产业报告》显示，2023年国内小程序游戏市场收入200亿元，同比增长300%。营收飞速增长的背后，是买量投放的大肆泛滥，许多用户曾对此感到十分困扰。在小程序游戏这一细分品类的监管力度加强后，这种情况或将出现改善。</p><h2 id=\"id_3538806541\">游戏厂商如何应对？</h2><p>据不完全统计，目前已有包括恺英网络、三七互娱、姚记科技、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002168\">惠程科技</a>等十余家上市游戏概念公司就《办法》作出回应。</p><p>资本市场，A股方面的恺英网络最先对该新规做出相应回应。恺英网络表示，目前对公司经营没有实质性影响。公司将认真学习研究、积极跟进反馈。</p><p>另外，知名游戏宣发平台<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02400\">心动公司</a>表示将积极配合新规落地，旗下自研产品从不依赖首充返利、每日签到等强运营手段。公司将充分落实新规精神和具体措施，共同促进行业健康发展。</p><p>作为全球最大的游戏厂商之一，腾讯游戏方面亦做出表示。</p><p>22日下午，腾讯游戏副总裁张巍称：“自从2021年未保新规发布以来，腾讯一直严格贯彻落实管理要求，目前未成年人的游戏时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00001\">长和</a>消费数据都处于历史最低水平。新的管理办法征求意见稿对于游戏的商业模式，运营节奏等关键要素并无本质改变。监管部门发布新的管理办法征求意见稿向业界、社会充分征求意见，相信更有利于游戏行业的有序，健康发展。腾讯游戏将继续坚持技术创新，文化引领的精品战略，在主管部门的支持下，践行中国游戏产业的高质量发展。”</p><p>今日港股收盘后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>发布公告表示今日已回购约359万股股份，共计耗资约10.01亿港元，价格区间在263.8港元—317港元。</p><p>网易这边，其港股收盘于122.0港元每股后，公司市值今日总计蒸发约1281.56亿港元。对于《办法》，网易目前没有作出回应。</p><p>除了回应资本市场的声音之外，已经有游戏公司迅速在玩法上做出相应调整。</p><p>《办法》目前虽然还只是在征求意见阶段，但它已经开始对即将发行的产品造成影响。据《第一财经》报道，今日发布的一款游戏因“每日签到”和部分其它设定与《办法》要求不符，因此该游戏的制作公司正在加班修改。</p><h2 id=\"id_1160895653\">潜在利好的因素在哪里？</h2><p>事实上，从2021年8月发布的《关于进一步严格管理切实防止未成年人沉迷网络游戏的通知》，到今年10月发布的《未成年人网络保护条例》，再到今天的《网络游戏管理办法（草案征求意见稿）》，可以明显看出，对于游戏行业，监管部门的态度始终保持从紧从严。</p><p>这份态度的背后，代表的是我国游戏行业发展趋势的转变。随着人口红利的降低与玩家付费习惯的培养，“游戏精品化”的呼声变得愈发明显，同质化严重的劣质产品开始逐渐被时代抛弃，且这一淘汰进程正在变得越来越快。</p><p>面对这一趋势，腾讯公司高级副总裁马晓轶在2023年腾讯游戏发布会上就曾表示：“腾讯游戏正在从一家平台型公司向产品型公司转变。”</p><p>在今年TGA上，腾讯公布旗下新作《最后的哨兵》。据负责该项目制作的光子工作室透露，这将会是该工作室的首款3A级开放世界游戏。外加上投资游戏科学所在研发中的《黑神话·悟空》，未来几年腾讯即将迎来两款3A大作。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b6e5a46853429aa403dc186e108b01\" alt=\"\"/>《最后的哨兵》概念图，图源：《最后的哨兵》官方X账号</p><p>从今日《办法》公布的内容上来看，如若日后《办法》正式落实执行，那么它将对游戏产品的留存与转化带来严峻挑战，从而推动游戏厂商在内容与运营上投入更多的精力与资源来获取用户更高的付费频率与更加长远的游戏生命周期。站在长期主义角度上看待此事，这对于游戏行业亦是利好。</p><p>另外，经历过一下午的动荡之后，“鸽派”声音终于传来。据澎湃透露，中国音数协会游戏工委内部人士表示：“既然是征求意见稿，表明目前阶段各界均可畅所欲言，以使其切实可行，更为完善。”由此看来，最终的结果或许并没有外界所想象的那么糟糕。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cbe49ca2c94e8caf47fae8b559f6d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.tmtpost.com/6849233.html?rss=laohu8","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2393418360","content_text":"作者｜吴一枭12月22日，国家新闻出版署起草《网络游戏管理办法（草案征求意见稿）》（以下简称《办法》），现向社会公开征求意见。《办法》中就网络游戏运营提出多项整改指示，涵盖游戏内容、用户消费、游戏币发放交易、虚拟道具抽取等多个领域。图源：国家新闻出版署受此影响，A股与港股游戏板块出现大幅下跌。截至收盘，A股方面三七互娱、恺英网络、姚记科技、电魂网络等集体跌停，港股方面哔哩哔哩下跌9%，腾讯下跌12%，网易下跌24.6%。新规如何影响游戏产业？梳理《办法》后，发现它首先影响的腰尾部游戏厂商，其次才是头部大厂。具体而言，《办法》第十八条中指出，网络游戏不得设置每日登录、首次充值、连续充值等诱导性奖励。所有网络游戏须设置用户充值限额，并在其服务规则中予以公示。前者几乎覆盖国内所有采用GaaS模式的游戏产品，后者则着重针对高ARPU产品，比如以“类传奇”为首的MMO游戏与SLG游戏。简而言之，这一条着重针对的是游戏的To C收入。这对于无法做出大DAU，只能把精力与资源放在高ARPU游戏的腰尾部游戏厂商而言会造成明显影响。小厂的游戏，多半采用都是“100个零氪玩家+10个小氪玩家+1个重氪玩家”模式，然后通过增设服务器来完成模式的复制粘贴，以此完成盈利目标。如若限消，这些产品的盈利能力将大打折扣。相较于腰尾部厂商，头部大厂IP储备更加丰富，强大的导流能力使其拥有高DAU产品矩阵。在创收方面，他们并不单纯依赖玩家付费，To B收入同样也是重要一环。据项目经手人员透露，腾讯旗下战术竞技类手游《和平精英》的品牌联动报价基本皆在百万级别以上。图源：和平精英官博在《办法》中，可能会对头部大厂造成明显影响的是第二十五条，同一企业不得同时经营网络游戏币发放和网络游戏币交易服务。然网易旗下的虚拟道具交易平台“藏宝阁”，正是其游戏营销业务中的重要组成部分。“藏宝阁”是网易热门游戏IP《梦幻西游》的衍生产物，自2008年起正式成立。在“藏宝阁”，玩家可以交易游戏中的虚拟道具与游戏账号，并直接以人民币结算。在“藏宝阁”的加持下，《梦幻西游》成为部分“平民”玩家的一种谋生手段，而手头富裕的氪金玩家则可借此节省体验游戏的时间成本，平台从每笔交易中抽佣，三方受益，共同为《梦幻西游》打造出稳定的经济生态。据数据网站Magic公布的2022年全球手游收入榜单显示，《梦幻西游》手游版全年营收约为6亿美元。作为网易旗下最赚钱的游戏，《梦幻西游》系列每年能为网易带来接近200亿元营收。图源：梦幻西游电脑版官博发展至今，“藏宝阁”已经从《梦幻西游》的”定海神针“蜕变成网易全平台虚拟道具交易平台，其目前共计覆盖网易旗下18款端游与27款手游。因此”藏宝阁“的运营是否保持顺畅，与网易游戏板块营收存在直接关联。对于《办法》第二十五条中所指的“同一企业”是否可以通过注册子公司来进行规避，目前尚不得知，有待进一步观察。除上述部分外，《办法》还对游戏测试与小程序游戏作出调整指示。如第二十一条【技术测试规范】指出，网络游戏限额测试用户不得超过2万，测试用户资料做删档处理。过去部分游戏公司会在游戏内测后期开启不删档内测，并在公测后对玩家的内测充值提供返利。如此做法一是为了提升用户转化，二是基于版号发放情况去做风险对冲。但随着《办法》出台，这条路从此将被堵死。另外，成为今年游戏行业热点的小程序游戏同样也将得到进一步监管。《办法》第六十三条提出，对无故事情节、玩法简单、无充值消费的国产小程序网络游戏的管理，由国家出版主管部门根据《出版管理条例》及本办法的原则另行规定。据《2023中国游戏产业报告》显示，2023年国内小程序游戏市场收入200亿元，同比增长300%。营收飞速增长的背后，是买量投放的大肆泛滥，许多用户曾对此感到十分困扰。在小程序游戏这一细分品类的监管力度加强后，这种情况或将出现改善。游戏厂商如何应对？据不完全统计，目前已有包括恺英网络、三七互娱、姚记科技、惠程科技等十余家上市游戏概念公司就《办法》作出回应。资本市场，A股方面的恺英网络最先对该新规做出相应回应。恺英网络表示，目前对公司经营没有实质性影响。公司将认真学习研究、积极跟进反馈。另外，知名游戏宣发平台心动公司表示将积极配合新规落地，旗下自研产品从不依赖首充返利、每日签到等强运营手段。公司将充分落实新规精神和具体措施，共同促进行业健康发展。作为全球最大的游戏厂商之一，腾讯游戏方面亦做出表示。22日下午，腾讯游戏副总裁张巍称：“自从2021年未保新规发布以来，腾讯一直严格贯彻落实管理要求，目前未成年人的游戏时长和消费数据都处于历史最低水平。新的管理办法征求意见稿对于游戏的商业模式，运营节奏等关键要素并无本质改变。监管部门发布新的管理办法征求意见稿向业界、社会充分征求意见，相信更有利于游戏行业的有序，健康发展。腾讯游戏将继续坚持技术创新，文化引领的精品战略，在主管部门的支持下，践行中国游戏产业的高质量发展。”今日港股收盘后，腾讯控股发布公告表示今日已回购约359万股股份，共计耗资约10.01亿港元，价格区间在263.8港元—317港元。网易这边，其港股收盘于122.0港元每股后，公司市值今日总计蒸发约1281.56亿港元。对于《办法》，网易目前没有作出回应。除了回应资本市场的声音之外，已经有游戏公司迅速在玩法上做出相应调整。《办法》目前虽然还只是在征求意见阶段，但它已经开始对即将发行的产品造成影响。据《第一财经》报道，今日发布的一款游戏因“每日签到”和部分其它设定与《办法》要求不符，因此该游戏的制作公司正在加班修改。潜在利好的因素在哪里？事实上，从2021年8月发布的《关于进一步严格管理切实防止未成年人沉迷网络游戏的通知》，到今年10月发布的《未成年人网络保护条例》，再到今天的《网络游戏管理办法（草案征求意见稿）》，可以明显看出，对于游戏行业，监管部门的态度始终保持从紧从严。这份态度的背后，代表的是我国游戏行业发展趋势的转变。随着人口红利的降低与玩家付费习惯的培养，“游戏精品化”的呼声变得愈发明显，同质化严重的劣质产品开始逐渐被时代抛弃，且这一淘汰进程正在变得越来越快。面对这一趋势，腾讯公司高级副总裁马晓轶在2023年腾讯游戏发布会上就曾表示：“腾讯游戏正在从一家平台型公司向产品型公司转变。”在今年TGA上，腾讯公布旗下新作《最后的哨兵》。据负责该项目制作的光子工作室透露，这将会是该工作室的首款3A级开放世界游戏。外加上投资游戏科学所在研发中的《黑神话·悟空》，未来几年腾讯即将迎来两款3A大作。《最后的哨兵》概念图，图源：《最后的哨兵》官方X账号从今日《办法》公布的内容上来看，如若日后《办法》正式落实执行，那么它将对游戏产品的留存与转化带来严峻挑战，从而推动游戏厂商在内容与运营上投入更多的精力与资源来获取用户更高的付费频率与更加长远的游戏生命周期。站在长期主义角度上看待此事，这对于游戏行业亦是利好。另外，经历过一下午的动荡之后，“鸽派”声音终于传来。据澎湃透露，中国音数协会游戏工委内部人士表示：“既然是征求意见稿，表明目前阶段各界均可畅所欲言，以使其切实可行，更为完善。”由此看来，最终的结果或许并没有外界所想象的那么糟糕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1.1,"BILI":1.1,"NTES":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":254923398979656,"gmtCreate":1703250647843,"gmtModify":1703250648878,"author":{"id":"3493463570621632","authorId":"3493463570621632","name":"虎咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b5bbe388ed95780c7fc441067b6c60","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493463570621632","authorIdStr":"3493463570621632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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13:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恒生科技指数涨超11%，京东大涨超23%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122237042","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五午后，恒生科技指数继续飙升，截至发稿涨幅达11%。$腾讯控股(00700)$涨超12%，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$涨超13%。同时，$京东集团-SW(09618)$涨超23%，$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$、美团涨超15%。北向资金净买额达20亿元。","content":"<p>周五午后，恒生科技指数继续飙升，截至发稿涨幅达11%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>涨超13%。同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>涨超23%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>、美团涨超15%。</p><p>北向资金净买额达20亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a2d49c5437a5b2db304e1977f500c7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1f4fe8fe88a949d7b96c58d117a257\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2786e3493a35526720e2388954969067\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恒生科技指数涨超11%，京东大涨超23%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恒生科技指数涨超11%，京东大涨超23%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-29 13:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周五午后，恒生科技指数继续飙升，截至发稿涨幅达11%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>涨超13%。同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>涨超23%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>、美团涨超15%。</p><p>北向资金净买额达20亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a2d49c5437a5b2db304e1977f500c7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1f4fe8fe88a949d7b96c58d117a257\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2786e3493a35526720e2388954969067\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09caddfc0c2d2ea28b3db992baa72dbf","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122237042","content_text":"周五午后，恒生科技指数继续飙升，截至发稿涨幅达11%。腾讯控股涨超12%，阿里巴巴-SW涨超13%。同时，京东集团-SW涨超23%，哔哩哔哩-SW、美团涨超15%。北向资金净买额达20亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613288724,"gmtCreate":1649910269686,"gmtModify":1649910269686,"author":{"id":"3493463570621632","authorId":"3493463570621632","name":"虎咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b5bbe388ed95780c7fc441067b6c60","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493463570621632","authorIdStr":"3493463570621632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613288724","repostId":"2227253644","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613352901,"gmtCreate":1649732444607,"gmtModify":1649732444607,"author":{"id":"3493463570621632","authorId":"3493463570621632","name":"虎咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b5bbe388ed95780c7fc441067b6c60","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493463570621632","authorIdStr":"3493463570621632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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