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05-16
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@谋定后动:【谋周报】散户为什么会亏钱?(2025/20总第221期)
程序员贺同学
2024-12-14
牛啊 感谢分享
程序员贺同学
2024-09-15
冲冲冲
程序员贺同学
2024-09-15
请教一下大家,谋定后动老师的新书《投资为乐》,国内用户怎么买或者哪里看呢???求助
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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独立研究机构DALBAR有一份每年更新、堪称“散户行为照妖镜”的报告,名字叫《投资者行为定量分析报告》(Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior),至今已经持续发布了三十年。这份报告不评估基金业绩,不分析市场涨跌,它只关注一件事:散户什么时候进场、什么时候出场——以及,他们最终到底赚没赚钱。 结果令人震惊:过去几十年,散户的年均收益率长期落后于标普500指数4~6个百分点,甚至某些年份差距超过10%。不是产品有问题,而是散户的操作太“人性”——买得太早、卖得太晚,或者反过来,错得刚刚好。 有一年标普涨了将近30%,而散户平均只赚了不到一半。不是市场不给机会,而是自己把机会“操作没了”。下图是1985-2021年间散户业绩和大盘的比较,如果是橙色柱状图,就是跑赢大盘,蓝色柱状图就是跑输大盘。从这个图可以看到,自2009年以后,散户的平均业绩就没有跑赢过大盘。 散户业绩和大盘的比较,蓝色为跑输大盘的年份 败因一:情绪驱动的买卖行为 DALBAR将这些行为背后的心理机制总结为九大行为偏误:损失厌恶、狭隘视角、心理账户、表面多样化 、锚定偏差、盲目乐观、媒体反应、后悔厌恶、羊群效应……听起来像心理学术语,细想之下却像照出我们操作习惯的一面镜子。扪心自问,这9个坑,谁又真的能全都躲过?回头看我过去这些年的投资,那些扎心的分析分明说的也是我自己。 理解这些偏误,并不是为了批评谁,而是提醒我们:如果想在投资中活得久、活得好,先要学会战胜那个总想“动一动”的自己。 如果说投资是一场马拉松,那这份报告的意义就是:大多数人跑不过市场,不是因为没穿好鞋,而是在前十公里就把自己绊倒了。 这些看似微不足道的","listText":"很多人以为,投资的成败,取决于你选了什么标的、用了什么策略。但真相往往更朴素——决定收益的,往往不是你账户里买了什么,而是你在什么时候买,什么时候卖。 独立研究机构DALBAR有一份每年更新、堪称“散户行为照妖镜”的报告,名字叫《投资者行为定量分析报告》(Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior),至今已经持续发布了三十年。这份报告不评估基金业绩,不分析市场涨跌,它只关注一件事:散户什么时候进场、什么时候出场——以及,他们最终到底赚没赚钱。 结果令人震惊:过去几十年,散户的年均收益率长期落后于标普500指数4~6个百分点,甚至某些年份差距超过10%。不是产品有问题,而是散户的操作太“人性”——买得太早、卖得太晚,或者反过来,错得刚刚好。 有一年标普涨了将近30%,而散户平均只赚了不到一半。不是市场不给机会,而是自己把机会“操作没了”。下图是1985-2021年间散户业绩和大盘的比较,如果是橙色柱状图,就是跑赢大盘,蓝色柱状图就是跑输大盘。从这个图可以看到,自2009年以后,散户的平均业绩就没有跑赢过大盘。 散户业绩和大盘的比较,蓝色为跑输大盘的年份 败因一:情绪驱动的买卖行为 DALBAR将这些行为背后的心理机制总结为九大行为偏误:损失厌恶、狭隘视角、心理账户、表面多样化 、锚定偏差、盲目乐观、媒体反应、后悔厌恶、羊群效应……听起来像心理学术语,细想之下却像照出我们操作习惯的一面镜子。扪心自问,这9个坑,谁又真的能全都躲过?回头看我过去这些年的投资,那些扎心的分析分明说的也是我自己。 理解这些偏误,并不是为了批评谁,而是提醒我们:如果想在投资中活得久、活得好,先要学会战胜那个总想“动一动”的自己。 如果说投资是一场马拉松,那这份报告的意义就是:大多数人跑不过市场,不是因为没穿好鞋,而是在前十公里就把自己绊倒了。 这些看似微不足道的","text":"很多人以为,投资的成败,取决于你选了什么标的、用了什么策略。但真相往往更朴素——决定收益的,往往不是你账户里买了什么,而是你在什么时候买,什么时候卖。 独立研究机构DALBAR有一份每年更新、堪称“散户行为照妖镜”的报告,名字叫《投资者行为定量分析报告》(Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior),至今已经持续发布了三十年。这份报告不评估基金业绩,不分析市场涨跌,它只关注一件事:散户什么时候进场、什么时候出场——以及,他们最终到底赚没赚钱。 结果令人震惊:过去几十年,散户的年均收益率长期落后于标普500指数4~6个百分点,甚至某些年份差距超过10%。不是产品有问题,而是散户的操作太“人性”——买得太早、卖得太晚,或者反过来,错得刚刚好。 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