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柔软的胖纸

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柔软的胖纸

2025-10-14

$一亩田(YMT)$ 搞什么鬼啊喋喋不休干脆退市算了

柔软的胖纸

2019-10-17

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 谁能告诉我为什么小米股价会这样是谁下的蛊

柔软的胖纸

2020-09-25

$伟能集团(01608)$去TMD亏了我一把noc

柔软的胖纸

2020-01-29

$通用电气(GE)$ 厉害了

柔软的胖纸

2019-10-21

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 你终于要起来了吗

柔软的胖纸

2019-10-29

$蔚来(NIO)$ 还能再低一点吗

柔软的胖纸

2019-09-29

百威亚太两次IPO时机都不好投资者看空预期上市当日获奖破发$百威亚太(01876)$

柔软的胖纸

2020-04-14

$蔚来(NIO)$拿住的都发财了

柔软的胖纸

2019-08-29

$王朝酒业(00828)$ 刚刚出售卖掉就起来了横盘一上午不动

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\n \n  <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>蔚来，小鹏，理想汽车在短短2个月时间，这3家电动车公司最近的股价是疯了似的暴涨。3家电动车2月涨幅至今已经超过了150%，现在的投资者并不关心是什么原因导致股价暴涨，而更多投资者关心我是否还能追高买入吗？这些电动车公司中哪个值得买？在这期视频中，我希望以纯数据的方式比较特斯拉以及电车三宝的估值，看看目前哪家公司最值得投资？<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>【视频转载自油管理财投资Dan Invest】\n \n","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>蔚来，小鹏，理想汽车在短短2个月时间，这3家电动车公司最近的股价是疯了似的暴涨。3家电动车2月涨幅至今已经超过了150%，现在的投资者并不关心是什么原因导致股价暴涨，而更多投资者关心我是否还能追高买入吗？这些电动车公司中哪个值得买？在这期视频中，我希望以纯数据的方式比较特斯拉以及电车三宝的估值，看看目前哪家公司最值得投资？<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>【视频转载自油管理财投资Dan Invest】","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$蔚来，小鹏，理想汽车在短短2个月时间，这3家电动车公司最近的股价是疯了似的暴涨。3家电动车2月涨幅至今已经超过了150%，现在的投资者并不关心是什么原因导致股价暴涨，而更多投资者关心我是否还能追高买入吗？这些电动车公司中哪个值得买？在这期视频中，我希望以纯数据的方式比较特斯拉以及电车三宝的估值，看看目前哪家公司最值得投资？$理想汽车(LI)$$蔚来(NIO)$$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$【视频转载自油管理财投资Dan Invest】","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9afc345aabe5249b8eccb38aa61b0d3","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390617052","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"52a7a452890f49b0b43718a86122f28e","tweetId":"390617052","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/0a39dd2b5285890810116915746/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9afc345aabe5249b8eccb38aa61b0d3"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393268334,"gmtCreate":1606313575528,"gmtModify":1703842526481,"author":{"id":"3494300481931882","authorId":"3494300481931882","name":"柔软的胖纸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494300481931882","idStr":"3494300481931882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393268334","repostId":"393295123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":393295123,"gmtCreate":1606310803562,"gmtModify":1703842472514,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3489725211341675","idStr":"3489725211341675"},"themes":[],"title":"今日财经5件大事：美国失业金人数、GDP来袭，欧银警告资产价格或回调","htmlText":"以下为11月25日（星期三）财经市场需要了解的5件大事：1.美国初请失业金人数、第三季度GDP二读来袭周三，市场将迎来大批经济数据的密集炮轰，其中最重要的是北京时间21:30（美国东部时间上午08:30）公布的初请失业金人数和续请失业金人数。上周，由于新增确诊病例激增，经济活动走弱，初请失业金人数六周来首次增加。投资者需密切关注本次数据是否会继续恶化。美国10月耐用品订单、第三季度GDP年化季率二读也将同时公布。美国密歇根大学11月消费者信心指数和预期指数、美国10月新屋销售、个人支出和收入数据将于北京时间23:00（美国东部时间上午10:00）公布。2.法国重新开始征收数字税；欧盟加强数据保护法国周三表示，即使美国威胁报复，也将从今年12月起恢复对大型互联网企业征收数字服务税。根据相关法案，法国政府将对全球数字业务年营业收入超过7.5亿欧元、同时在法国境内年营业收入超过2500万欧元的高科技企业征收3%的数字服务税。此举将考验拜登(Joe Biden)政府的外交和贸易政策。特朗普政府曾威胁称，如果法国征收数字税，作为报复，将对法国奢侈品加征关税。不过，由于大多数零售商已经为假日季备好了库存，短期内预计不会产生重大影响。与此同时，欧盟委员会出台法律加强欧洲对政府和行业数据的控制。3.美股涨势停歇，股指期货窄幅震荡美国股指期货在周三盘前涨跌互现。前一交易日，因市场寄望疫苗将推动2021年经济反弹，美股大涨，创下历史新高。道琼斯指数和标普500指数周二成交量创下历史新高，散户大举买入多年来备受冷落的价值股。一些人士预计，随着明年实体经济复苏，这些股票的表现将超过其他股票。英为财情Investing.com美股行情显示，截至北京时间20:47(美国东部时间上午07:47)，以蓝筹股为主的道指期货跌53.0点，或0.18%，标普500指数期货跌1.82点，或约0.05%，以科技股为","listText":"以下为11月25日（星期三）财经市场需要了解的5件大事：1.美国初请失业金人数、第三季度GDP二读来袭周三，市场将迎来大批经济数据的密集炮轰，其中最重要的是北京时间21:30（美国东部时间上午08:30）公布的初请失业金人数和续请失业金人数。上周，由于新增确诊病例激增，经济活动走弱，初请失业金人数六周来首次增加。投资者需密切关注本次数据是否会继续恶化。美国10月耐用品订单、第三季度GDP年化季率二读也将同时公布。美国密歇根大学11月消费者信心指数和预期指数、美国10月新屋销售、个人支出和收入数据将于北京时间23:00（美国东部时间上午10:00）公布。2.法国重新开始征收数字税；欧盟加强数据保护法国周三表示，即使美国威胁报复，也将从今年12月起恢复对大型互联网企业征收数字服务税。根据相关法案，法国政府将对全球数字业务年营业收入超过7.5亿欧元、同时在法国境内年营业收入超过2500万欧元的高科技企业征收3%的数字服务税。此举将考验拜登(Joe Biden)政府的外交和贸易政策。特朗普政府曾威胁称，如果法国征收数字税，作为报复，将对法国奢侈品加征关税。不过，由于大多数零售商已经为假日季备好了库存，短期内预计不会产生重大影响。与此同时，欧盟委员会出台法律加强欧洲对政府和行业数据的控制。3.美股涨势停歇，股指期货窄幅震荡美国股指期货在周三盘前涨跌互现。前一交易日，因市场寄望疫苗将推动2021年经济反弹，美股大涨，创下历史新高。道琼斯指数和标普500指数周二成交量创下历史新高，散户大举买入多年来备受冷落的价值股。一些人士预计，随着明年实体经济复苏，这些股票的表现将超过其他股票。英为财情Investing.com美股行情显示，截至北京时间20:47(美国东部时间上午07:47)，以蓝筹股为主的道指期货跌53.0点，或0.18%，标普500指数期货跌1.82点，或约0.05%，以科技股为","text":"以下为11月25日（星期三）财经市场需要了解的5件大事：1.美国初请失业金人数、第三季度GDP二读来袭周三，市场将迎来大批经济数据的密集炮轰，其中最重要的是北京时间21:30（美国东部时间上午08:30）公布的初请失业金人数和续请失业金人数。上周，由于新增确诊病例激增，经济活动走弱，初请失业金人数六周来首次增加。投资者需密切关注本次数据是否会继续恶化。美国10月耐用品订单、第三季度GDP年化季率二读也将同时公布。美国密歇根大学11月消费者信心指数和预期指数、美国10月新屋销售、个人支出和收入数据将于北京时间23:00（美国东部时间上午10:00）公布。2.法国重新开始征收数字税；欧盟加强数据保护法国周三表示，即使美国威胁报复，也将从今年12月起恢复对大型互联网企业征收数字服务税。根据相关法案，法国政府将对全球数字业务年营业收入超过7.5亿欧元、同时在法国境内年营业收入超过2500万欧元的高科技企业征收3%的数字服务税。此举将考验拜登(Joe Biden)政府的外交和贸易政策。特朗普政府曾威胁称，如果法国征收数字税，作为报复，将对法国奢侈品加征关税。不过，由于大多数零售商已经为假日季备好了库存，短期内预计不会产生重大影响。与此同时，欧盟委员会出台法律加强欧洲对政府和行业数据的控制。3.美股涨势停歇，股指期货窄幅震荡美国股指期货在周三盘前涨跌互现。前一交易日，因市场寄望疫苗将推动2021年经济反弹，美股大涨，创下历史新高。道琼斯指数和标普500指数周二成交量创下历史新高，散户大举买入多年来备受冷落的价值股。一些人士预计，随着明年实体经济复苏，这些股票的表现将超过其他股票。英为财情Investing.com美股行情显示，截至北京时间20:47(美国东部时间上午07:47)，以蓝筹股为主的道指期货跌53.0点，或0.18%，标普500指数期货跌1.82点，或约0.05%，以科技股为","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fd817a2a840b84babcff46a5bba88d9","width":"800","height":"525"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393295123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393260992,"gmtCreate":1606313221816,"gmtModify":1703842519934,"author":{"id":"3494300481931882","authorId":"3494300481931882","name":"柔软的胖纸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494300481931882","idStr":"3494300481931882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393260992","repostId":"393079583","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":393079583,"gmtCreate":1606219418737,"gmtModify":1703841740450,"author":{"id":"58341441844653","authorId":"58341441844653","name":"孟浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3af5b59c3e4676ee72cb6e0fea0279b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"58341441844653","idStr":"58341441844653"},"themes":[],"title":"比蔚来还猛，这只股票一年大涨1700%","htmlText":"今年以来，新能源汽车涨势如虹，特斯拉大涨523%，蔚来大涨1277%，今年上市的小鹏与理想在短短的几个月也翻了300%左右。然而他们的涨幅远不及一个做充电桩的公司<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLNK\">$Blink Charging(BLNK)$</a> ，这家公司股价23日暴涨48.3%，11月以来上涨了333.25%，过去一年更是累计上涨约1700%。今天就跟大家聊聊这家做充电桩的公司。 为什么 Blink 充电桩吸引了如此多的投资者关注？ Blink成立于2009年，是美国第二大的电动车充电网络公司，它主营业务是美国制造、拥有和运营充电站网络。目前在美国40个州拥有超过1.5万个充电站，包括二级充电桩和高压快速充电桩。随着消费者对电动汽车需求的增长，电动汽车充电基础设施的市场可能是巨大的。预计2019-2026年全球电动汽车市场年复合年增长率为25.6%，到2026年电动汽车市场将超过5670亿美元。预计到2025年电动汽车的销量将达到占全球汽车销量的30%。 股价走高源于该公司近期对外宣布的一系列消息，首先是推出新的Blink充电站和IQ200充电站升级设备的电缆管理解决方案；其次是今年第三季度公司收购了位于洛杉矶市中心的200个电动汽车充电站；第三是与高纬物业签署协议，向该公司美国客户推广Blink电动汽车充电站。 Blink 营销副总裁Rebecca Gutierrez在回复市场观察员的电子邮件中写道: “关于我们股价最近的上涨，如你所知，目前市场对电动汽车行业有很大的兴趣，随着电动汽车的使用持续增长，投资者也意识到了这一点，Blink 在基础设施方面处于独特的地位。”。 机构看空Blink 与市场的追捧热情不同，做空机构对这家公司的评价不高。2020年8月，该公司股价遭受重创，在截至8月21日的一","listText":"今年以来，新能源汽车涨势如虹，特斯拉大涨523%，蔚来大涨1277%，今年上市的小鹏与理想在短短的几个月也翻了300%左右。然而他们的涨幅远不及一个做充电桩的公司<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLNK\">$Blink Charging(BLNK)$</a> ，这家公司股价23日暴涨48.3%，11月以来上涨了333.25%，过去一年更是累计上涨约1700%。今天就跟大家聊聊这家做充电桩的公司。 为什么 Blink 充电桩吸引了如此多的投资者关注？ Blink成立于2009年，是美国第二大的电动车充电网络公司，它主营业务是美国制造、拥有和运营充电站网络。目前在美国40个州拥有超过1.5万个充电站，包括二级充电桩和高压快速充电桩。随着消费者对电动汽车需求的增长，电动汽车充电基础设施的市场可能是巨大的。预计2019-2026年全球电动汽车市场年复合年增长率为25.6%，到2026年电动汽车市场将超过5670亿美元。预计到2025年电动汽车的销量将达到占全球汽车销量的30%。 股价走高源于该公司近期对外宣布的一系列消息，首先是推出新的Blink充电站和IQ200充电站升级设备的电缆管理解决方案；其次是今年第三季度公司收购了位于洛杉矶市中心的200个电动汽车充电站；第三是与高纬物业签署协议，向该公司美国客户推广Blink电动汽车充电站。 Blink 营销副总裁Rebecca Gutierrez在回复市场观察员的电子邮件中写道: “关于我们股价最近的上涨，如你所知，目前市场对电动汽车行业有很大的兴趣，随着电动汽车的使用持续增长，投资者也意识到了这一点，Blink 在基础设施方面处于独特的地位。”。 机构看空Blink 与市场的追捧热情不同，做空机构对这家公司的评价不高。2020年8月，该公司股价遭受重创，在截至8月21日的一","text":"今年以来，新能源汽车涨势如虹，特斯拉大涨523%，蔚来大涨1277%，今年上市的小鹏与理想在短短的几个月也翻了300%左右。然而他们的涨幅远不及一个做充电桩的公司$Blink Charging(BLNK)$ ，这家公司股价23日暴涨48.3%，11月以来上涨了333.25%，过去一年更是累计上涨约1700%。今天就跟大家聊聊这家做充电桩的公司。 为什么 Blink 充电桩吸引了如此多的投资者关注？ Blink成立于2009年，是美国第二大的电动车充电网络公司，它主营业务是美国制造、拥有和运营充电站网络。目前在美国40个州拥有超过1.5万个充电站，包括二级充电桩和高压快速充电桩。随着消费者对电动汽车需求的增长，电动汽车充电基础设施的市场可能是巨大的。预计2019-2026年全球电动汽车市场年复合年增长率为25.6%，到2026年电动汽车市场将超过5670亿美元。预计到2025年电动汽车的销量将达到占全球汽车销量的30%。 股价走高源于该公司近期对外宣布的一系列消息，首先是推出新的Blink充电站和IQ200充电站升级设备的电缆管理解决方案；其次是今年第三季度公司收购了位于洛杉矶市中心的200个电动汽车充电站；第三是与高纬物业签署协议，向该公司美国客户推广Blink电动汽车充电站。 Blink 营销副总裁Rebecca Gutierrez在回复市场观察员的电子邮件中写道: “关于我们股价最近的上涨，如你所知，目前市场对电动汽车行业有很大的兴趣，随着电动汽车的使用持续增长，投资者也意识到了这一点，Blink 在基础设施方面处于独特的地位。”。 机构看空Blink 与市场的追捧热情不同，做空机构对这家公司的评价不高。2020年8月，该公司股价遭受重创，在截至8月21日的一","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aef829d5f0ca307f56087e599d11bd1b","width":"1382","height":"820"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69b339e052d4d3b62d1faf6f09f6791","width":"541","height":"130"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b28bc116115b04c2264d819789f1ee9e","width":"539","height":"402"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393079583","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308323066,"gmtCreate":1603873686155,"gmtModify":1703831043516,"author":{"id":"3494300481931882","authorId":"3494300481931882","name":"柔软的胖纸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494300481931882","idStr":"3494300481931882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308323066","repostId":"301386651","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":301386651,"gmtCreate":1603369167366,"gmtModify":1703829696528,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440721572920950","idStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"蚂蚁金服4000亿美金的估值从何而来？","htmlText":"今天下午，路透的一条新闻让对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/90016\">$蚂蚁集团(临时)(90016)$</a> 翘首以待的投资者眉目一紧—— 瑞信最新的报告显示，阿里巴巴旗下蚂蚁集团的估值应提升至3800至4610亿美元，2020年全年净利预期将同比增长141%至433亿人民币。 怎么变化这么快呢？从之前的2500亿美元，到最近的2800亿美元（或2万亿RMB），都能明显看到“询价”的痕迹。但是3800亿-4600亿的估值，貌似步子也太大了一些？ 瑞信是这么说的， 阿里、腾讯、京东、美团和拼多多这五家公司的平均PEG（市盈率相对盈利增长比率）为1.2x 全球互联网巨头亚马逊、谷歌和Facebook的平均PEG比率为1.6x 蚂蚁集团应该在1.2x-1.4x的PEG 如果2020-2022年收入的复合增长率为32%（言下之意利润和收入水平至少保持相同），那市盈率就将在38-45之间。 如果蚂蚁集团2020年全年净利润同比增长141%，达到433亿元，未来按照32%的增长，那么2021年为570亿元，2022年为750亿元。2022年按照45倍PE可以达到4600亿美元。 敢突然迈这么大步子，肯定不是空穴来风。 根据蚂蚁聆讯后的招股文件 前三季度的营业收入1181.91亿元，同比增长42.56%，毛利润695.49亿元，同比增长74.28%。按照年末达到1100亿毛利润的话，433亿的 净利润（IFRS）相当于是毛利率的39% 。 可是，2019年的净利润占毛利润比例是30%。 只能说，非要给这么高的目标，蚂蚁要垫垫脚尖的话，还尚且能够着。 PE等倍数估值法有一个比较大的问题是，最终估值对估值倍数的变化比较敏感。一个小的变动可能就引起大范围的调整，同时对不同目标时期点的估值，如果不说清楚的话，也会相差较大。 所以从2800亿-4800亿，只要改","listText":"今天下午，路透的一条新闻让对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/90016\">$蚂蚁集团(临时)(90016)$</a> 翘首以待的投资者眉目一紧—— 瑞信最新的报告显示，阿里巴巴旗下蚂蚁集团的估值应提升至3800至4610亿美元，2020年全年净利预期将同比增长141%至433亿人民币。 怎么变化这么快呢？从之前的2500亿美元，到最近的2800亿美元（或2万亿RMB），都能明显看到“询价”的痕迹。但是3800亿-4600亿的估值，貌似步子也太大了一些？ 瑞信是这么说的， 阿里、腾讯、京东、美团和拼多多这五家公司的平均PEG（市盈率相对盈利增长比率）为1.2x 全球互联网巨头亚马逊、谷歌和Facebook的平均PEG比率为1.6x 蚂蚁集团应该在1.2x-1.4x的PEG 如果2020-2022年收入的复合增长率为32%（言下之意利润和收入水平至少保持相同），那市盈率就将在38-45之间。 如果蚂蚁集团2020年全年净利润同比增长141%，达到433亿元，未来按照32%的增长，那么2021年为570亿元，2022年为750亿元。2022年按照45倍PE可以达到4600亿美元。 敢突然迈这么大步子，肯定不是空穴来风。 根据蚂蚁聆讯后的招股文件 前三季度的营业收入1181.91亿元，同比增长42.56%，毛利润695.49亿元，同比增长74.28%。按照年末达到1100亿毛利润的话，433亿的 净利润（IFRS）相当于是毛利率的39% 。 可是，2019年的净利润占毛利润比例是30%。 只能说，非要给这么高的目标，蚂蚁要垫垫脚尖的话，还尚且能够着。 PE等倍数估值法有一个比较大的问题是，最终估值对估值倍数的变化比较敏感。一个小的变动可能就引起大范围的调整，同时对不同目标时期点的估值，如果不说清楚的话，也会相差较大。 所以从2800亿-4800亿，只要改","text":"今天下午，路透的一条新闻让对$蚂蚁集团(临时)(90016)$ 翘首以待的投资者眉目一紧—— 瑞信最新的报告显示，阿里巴巴旗下蚂蚁集团的估值应提升至3800至4610亿美元，2020年全年净利预期将同比增长141%至433亿人民币。 怎么变化这么快呢？从之前的2500亿美元，到最近的2800亿美元（或2万亿RMB），都能明显看到“询价”的痕迹。但是3800亿-4600亿的估值，貌似步子也太大了一些？ 瑞信是这么说的， 阿里、腾讯、京东、美团和拼多多这五家公司的平均PEG（市盈率相对盈利增长比率）为1.2x 全球互联网巨头亚马逊、谷歌和Facebook的平均PEG比率为1.6x 蚂蚁集团应该在1.2x-1.4x的PEG 如果2020-2022年收入的复合增长率为32%（言下之意利润和收入水平至少保持相同），那市盈率就将在38-45之间。 如果蚂蚁集团2020年全年净利润同比增长141%，达到433亿元，未来按照32%的增长，那么2021年为570亿元，2022年为750亿元。2022年按照45倍PE可以达到4600亿美元。 敢突然迈这么大步子，肯定不是空穴来风。 根据蚂蚁聆讯后的招股文件 前三季度的营业收入1181.91亿元，同比增长42.56%，毛利润695.49亿元，同比增长74.28%。按照年末达到1100亿毛利润的话，433亿的 净利润（IFRS）相当于是毛利率的39% 。 可是，2019年的净利润占毛利润比例是30%。 只能说，非要给这么高的目标，蚂蚁要垫垫脚尖的话，还尚且能够着。 PE等倍数估值法有一个比较大的问题是，最终估值对估值倍数的变化比较敏感。一个小的变动可能就引起大范围的调整，同时对不同目标时期点的估值，如果不说清楚的话，也会相差较大。 所以从2800亿-4800亿，只要改","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe8718f8125130c4579274811936ec0","width":"1467","height":"245"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301386651","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308329733,"gmtCreate":1603873675122,"gmtModify":1703831043858,"author":{"id":"3494300481931882","authorId":"3494300481931882","name":"柔软的胖纸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494300481931882","idStr":"3494300481931882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308329733","repostId":"303240882","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":303240882,"gmtCreate":1603180189440,"gmtModify":1703828944199,"author":{"id":"35433028694349","authorId":"35433028694349","name":"老虎专刊","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/e0b93d50cf0df54ce7b1b746f78db36c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"35433028694349","idStr":"35433028694349"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎专刊】蔚来还能买入吗？看看虎友们怎么说","htmlText":"2020年10月15日，摩根大通发布了一篇评级报告，将蔚来汽车由“中性”调为“增持”评级，目标价40美元。当日，蔚来汽车大涨23.03%。截至上周五，蔚来汽车今年以来涨幅达609%，近1年最大涨幅超22倍，总市值超过384亿美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>在美股市场，蔚来市值已经超过福特汽车、法拉利等，A股市场上超越上汽集团市值2370亿元，近乎相当于两个广汽集团市值。相信大家都很好奇现在还能买入吗？一起来看看虎友们怎么说。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3494295154959832\">@FinMelon</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/309000612\" target=\"_blank\">我对蔚来许下的十倍承诺（圆梦篇）</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/309124295\" target=\"_blank\">十倍后的蔚来，还有多少未来？</a> 我认为中国市场是一个前景和潜力都无法预估和衡量的市场。特斯拉在中国建设超级工厂之前股票市值也不到300亿美元，自Model 3国产化之后，特斯拉股价一路飙升，截止今日总市值达4121亿美元。再看我们的蔚来汽车，目前市值295亿美元，这与特拉斯大爆发前的估值水平相当... <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3532514747665209\">@相信过程</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/309317997\" target=\"_blank\">蔚来车主关于蔚来的思考</a>","listText":"2020年10月15日，摩根大通发布了一篇评级报告，将蔚来汽车由“中性”调为“增持”评级，目标价40美元。当日，蔚来汽车大涨23.03%。截至上周五，蔚来汽车今年以来涨幅达609%，近1年最大涨幅超22倍，总市值超过384亿美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>在美股市场，蔚来市值已经超过福特汽车、法拉利等，A股市场上超越上汽集团市值2370亿元，近乎相当于两个广汽集团市值。相信大家都很好奇现在还能买入吗？一起来看看虎友们怎么说。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3494295154959832\">@FinMelon</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/309000612\" target=\"_blank\">我对蔚来许下的十倍承诺（圆梦篇）</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/309124295\" target=\"_blank\">十倍后的蔚来，还有多少未来？</a> 我认为中国市场是一个前景和潜力都无法预估和衡量的市场。特斯拉在中国建设超级工厂之前股票市值也不到300亿美元，自Model 3国产化之后，特斯拉股价一路飙升，截止今日总市值达4121亿美元。再看我们的蔚来汽车，目前市值295亿美元，这与特拉斯大爆发前的估值水平相当... <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3532514747665209\">@相信过程</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/309317997\" target=\"_blank\">蔚来车主关于蔚来的思考</a>","text":"2020年10月15日，摩根大通发布了一篇评级报告，将蔚来汽车由“中性”调为“增持”评级，目标价40美元。当日，蔚来汽车大涨23.03%。截至上周五，蔚来汽车今年以来涨幅达609%，近1年最大涨幅超22倍，总市值超过384亿美元。$蔚来(NIO)$在美股市场，蔚来市值已经超过福特汽车、法拉利等，A股市场上超越上汽集团市值2370亿元，近乎相当于两个广汽集团市值。相信大家都很好奇现在还能买入吗？一起来看看虎友们怎么说。 @FinMelon 我对蔚来许下的十倍承诺（圆梦篇） 十倍后的蔚来，还有多少未来？ 我认为中国市场是一个前景和潜力都无法预估和衡量的市场。特斯拉在中国建设超级工厂之前股票市值也不到300亿美元，自Model 3国产化之后，特斯拉股价一路飙升，截止今日总市值达4121亿美元。再看我们的蔚来汽车，目前市值295亿美元，这与特拉斯大爆发前的估值水平相当... @相信过程 蔚来车主关于蔚来的思考","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25623c90f63ca783878682f024817c9a","width":"1080","height":"1920"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f5e73e0d53505a5ff6de3973bf6a95","width":"2160","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e626ea5bc01c43fb799f2a224e1ea66e","width":"2292","height":"1118"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303240882","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308329566,"gmtCreate":1603873660955,"gmtModify":1703831043175,"author":{"id":"3494300481931882","authorId":"3494300481931882","name":"柔软的胖纸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494300481931882","idStr":"3494300481931882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308329566","repostId":"303764793","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":303764793,"gmtCreate":1603275436305,"gmtModify":1744960571650,"author":{"id":"37002306153600","authorId":"37002306153600","name":"小虎访谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0f6fba0673df1de1c5c31bb2b4f6d4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"37002306153600","idStr":"37002306153600"},"themes":[],"title":"【虎友访谈】FinMelon：十倍牛股有特征，港股ipo终会趋于冷静","htmlText":" “目标达到，不留恋；风险到了，不幻想！估值过高的股票可以等到上市后择时买入并长线持有，十倍股的特征可以用7个问题的形式去做初步判断。” 来吧，欢迎虎妞今天请到的嘉宾@FinMelon 分享她的投资技巧与观点~ &nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TP/649\" target=\"_blank\">#老虎步行街#</a> @FinMelon 25岁，香港科技大学经济学研究生毕业，目前在深圳从事金融工作。港美A投资者。8年的A股投资经验，5年的美股投资经验，港股算是比较晚，研究生时代才开始慢慢接触港股短短2年左右的时间。爱好：唱歌，旅行，美食，汽车，数码。 T：什么契机下接触到炒股的？ 本科读的金融学专业，当时整个专业都洋溢着炒股的气息，于是在同学的“勾引”（说挣生活费不要太容易），专业课老师的推动下，打个车就去申银万国（目前已合并为申万宏源）开了A股账户，入市本金1W人民币。 T：看您对申购新股有做研究，怎么判定是否可打新呢？ 因为目前工作属性和个人爱好的原因，每天都会关注港美A三大市场的股票。而且因为本身做的是投资者关系这一块的工作，所以需要对各个行业和不同公司都要进行了解和尽调。并且手持Wind账户，做数据上的分析和研究也比较全面和方便。 针对港美股的打新，因为本身美股起初是不存在散户打新认购这个概念的，所以我在美股打新这一块没有更深入的研究。 港股的话，我个人习惯根据公司所在的行业选取几家同类型公司进行横向比较。 至于如何判定是否可打新，我一般都是参考该公司的行业地位和市场占有量，以及他的估值是否合理化。 T：最近的几只新港股估值过高，有虎友觉得打新似乎不是那么划算了，您怎么看待未来的港股打新市场？ 确实是这样的！最近几年，生物医药和物业股都是港股市场的香饽饽。公开配售认购倍数基本上都是100倍起步，各家券商认购的杠杆也越放越大，","listText":" “目标达到，不留恋；风险到了，不幻想！估值过高的股票可以等到上市后择时买入并长线持有，十倍股的特征可以用7个问题的形式去做初步判断。” 来吧，欢迎虎妞今天请到的嘉宾@FinMelon 分享她的投资技巧与观点~ &nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TP/649\" target=\"_blank\">#老虎步行街#</a> @FinMelon 25岁，香港科技大学经济学研究生毕业，目前在深圳从事金融工作。港美A投资者。8年的A股投资经验，5年的美股投资经验，港股算是比较晚，研究生时代才开始慢慢接触港股短短2年左右的时间。爱好：唱歌，旅行，美食，汽车，数码。 T：什么契机下接触到炒股的？ 本科读的金融学专业，当时整个专业都洋溢着炒股的气息，于是在同学的“勾引”（说挣生活费不要太容易），专业课老师的推动下，打个车就去申银万国（目前已合并为申万宏源）开了A股账户，入市本金1W人民币。 T：看您对申购新股有做研究，怎么判定是否可打新呢？ 因为目前工作属性和个人爱好的原因，每天都会关注港美A三大市场的股票。而且因为本身做的是投资者关系这一块的工作，所以需要对各个行业和不同公司都要进行了解和尽调。并且手持Wind账户，做数据上的分析和研究也比较全面和方便。 针对港美股的打新，因为本身美股起初是不存在散户打新认购这个概念的，所以我在美股打新这一块没有更深入的研究。 港股的话，我个人习惯根据公司所在的行业选取几家同类型公司进行横向比较。 至于如何判定是否可打新，我一般都是参考该公司的行业地位和市场占有量，以及他的估值是否合理化。 T：最近的几只新港股估值过高，有虎友觉得打新似乎不是那么划算了，您怎么看待未来的港股打新市场？ 确实是这样的！最近几年，生物医药和物业股都是港股市场的香饽饽。公开配售认购倍数基本上都是100倍起步，各家券商认购的杠杆也越放越大，","text":"“目标达到，不留恋；风险到了，不幻想！估值过高的股票可以等到上市后择时买入并长线持有，十倍股的特征可以用7个问题的形式去做初步判断。” 来吧，欢迎虎妞今天请到的嘉宾@FinMelon 分享她的投资技巧与观点~ #老虎步行街# @FinMelon 25岁，香港科技大学经济学研究生毕业，目前在深圳从事金融工作。港美A投资者。8年的A股投资经验，5年的美股投资经验，港股算是比较晚，研究生时代才开始慢慢接触港股短短2年左右的时间。爱好：唱歌，旅行，美食，汽车，数码。 T：什么契机下接触到炒股的？ 本科读的金融学专业，当时整个专业都洋溢着炒股的气息，于是在同学的“勾引”（说挣生活费不要太容易），专业课老师的推动下，打个车就去申银万国（目前已合并为申万宏源）开了A股账户，入市本金1W人民币。 T：看您对申购新股有做研究，怎么判定是否可打新呢？ 因为目前工作属性和个人爱好的原因，每天都会关注港美A三大市场的股票。而且因为本身做的是投资者关系这一块的工作，所以需要对各个行业和不同公司都要进行了解和尽调。并且手持Wind账户，做数据上的分析和研究也比较全面和方便。 针对港美股的打新，因为本身美股起初是不存在散户打新认购这个概念的，所以我在美股打新这一块没有更深入的研究。 港股的话，我个人习惯根据公司所在的行业选取几家同类型公司进行横向比较。 至于如何判定是否可打新，我一般都是参考该公司的行业地位和市场占有量，以及他的估值是否合理化。 T：最近的几只新港股估值过高，有虎友觉得打新似乎不是那么划算了，您怎么看待未来的港股打新市场？ 确实是这样的！最近几年，生物医药和物业股都是港股市场的香饽饽。公开配售认购倍数基本上都是100倍起步，各家券商认购的杠杆也越放越大，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84f037bde0e9b54c08d5a676d8ff5a3","width":"736","height":"434"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2176677f0044232fbb1b2206b4110345","width":"768","height":"414"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7a85c1ca5547e6fcf109d10018b3a44","width":"717","height":"443"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303764793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308367212,"gmtCreate":1603873373636,"gmtModify":1703831040090,"author":{"id":"3494300481931882","authorId":"3494300481931882","name":"柔软的胖纸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494300481931882","idStr":"3494300481931882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最大规模IPO重在参与","listText":"最大规模IPO重在参与","text":"最大规模IPO重在参与","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487527cf80e83749205a4fc3b39dfe84","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308367212","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974840233,"gmtCreate":1601015478922,"gmtModify":1703823342907,"author":{"id":"3494300481931882","authorId":"3494300481931882","name":"柔软的胖纸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494300481931882","idStr":"3494300481931882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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