招财猫JK的个人主页 - 老虎社区

招财猫JK

招财猫JK

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0勋章

2021-02-02

$游戏驿站(GME)$$AMC院线(AMC)$历史总是惊人的相似

2020-03-29

$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$与2019年下半年的美国大流感，2000多万人感染，50多万人去世相比，这次新冠感染人数还不算很多

2021-01-15

$切萨皮克能源(CHKAQ)$如果重组成功后，预估市值为51亿美元，按照1月14日市值0.32亿美元算的话，回归主板的话，估计会翻159倍，希望可以守得云开见月明

2021-01-08

$切萨皮克能源(CHKAQ)$只有我一个人还在这里坚守吗？

2022-10-07

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$今晚纳斯达克V起来，明天大A继续崩

2021-01-27

$AMC院线(AMC)$$游戏驿站(GME)$现在美股是不是流行，打爆空头[开心]

2022-04-25

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 如果今天晚上纳指收涨，会把软体动物属的A股的脸狠狠的打肿

2020-03-29

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$与2019年下半年的美国大流感，2000多万人感染，50多万人去世相比，这次新冠感染人数还不算很多。

2022-02-10

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$感觉今晚还是可以V回来的，不像癌股没有脊梁，早就碎成渣渣了

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2206(NQmain)$ 如果今天晚上纳指收涨，会把软体动物属的A股的脸狠狠的打肿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/618329541","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"减少回撤","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3451008041626229","idStr":"3451008041626229"},"content":"怎么可能收涨啊，中国的对纳指科技产品的预期消费减少，这个是新的利空啊","text":"怎么可能收涨啊，中国的对纳指科技产品的预期消费减少，这个是新的利空啊","html":"怎么可能收涨啊，中国的对纳指科技产品的预期消费减少，这个是新的利空啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632441262,"gmtCreate":1646666343767,"gmtModify":1646666343767,"author":{"id":"3494322756552438","authorId":"3494322756552438","name":"招财猫JK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ef2191447e72ff1da4358e06057d4a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494322756552438","idStr":"3494322756552438"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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22:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"战争与美股：以史为鉴，流血之日正是抄底之时？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127618714","media":"第一财经","summary":"美股有句话说：“当华尔街流血时，就是入手的好时机，哪怕流血的是你本人。”历史的统计数据显示，这一股市名言似乎同样适用于战争时期。“1939年至1945年二战期间，道指累计上涨约50%，年均涨幅超7%。","content":"<div>\n<p>美股有句话说：“当华尔街流血时，就是入手的好时机，哪怕流血的是你本人。”历史的统计数据显示，这一股市名言似乎同样适用于战争时期。“1939年至1945年二战期间，道指累计上涨约50%，年均涨幅超7%。”里霍尔茨财富管理公司（Ritholtz Wealth Management）的机构资产管理总监本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）说，“事实上，在现代历史上最严重的两场战争中，美国股市总共上涨了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101327938.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>战争与美股：以史为鉴，流血之日正是抄底之时？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n战争与美股：以史为鉴，流血之日正是抄底之时？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-24 22:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.yicai.com/news/101327938.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股有句话说：“当华尔街流血时，就是入手的好时机，哪怕流血的是你本人。”历史的统计数据显示，这一股市名言似乎同样适用于战争时期。“1939年至1945年二战期间，道指累计上涨约50%，年均涨幅超7%。”里霍尔茨财富管理公司（Ritholtz Wealth Management）的机构资产管理总监本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）说，“事实上，在现代历史上最严重的两场战争中，美国股市总共上涨了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101327938.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101327938.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127618714","content_text":"美股有句话说：“当华尔街流血时，就是入手的好时机，哪怕流血的是你本人。”历史的统计数据显示，这一股市名言似乎同样适用于战争时期。“1939年至1945年二战期间，道指累计上涨约50%，年均涨幅超7%。”里霍尔茨财富管理公司（Ritholtz Wealth Management）的机构资产管理总监本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）说，“事实上，在现代历史上最严重的两场战争中，美国股市总共上涨了115%。”研究咨询机构美国财务研究与分析中心（CFRA）统计了自1941年日本偷袭珍珠港以来的20次主要地缘政治冲突。数据显示，标普500指数的平均最大跌幅为5%，股指触底平均用时为22天，反弹平均用时47天。地缘冲突期间，美股历史表现（来源：LPL金融）美股受地缘冲突的影响越来越小事实上，自上世纪90年代以来，美股受地缘政治冲突的影响越来越小。券商LPL金融（LPL Financial）统计了包括海湾战争、伊拉克战争和 “9·11事件”等16次重大地缘政治事件，道数平均跌幅仅为2%。在此后的3个月和6个月中，道指收涨概率超88%，平均涨幅分别为5%和7.9%。数据显示，在突袭式的战争或冲突爆发时，股指反应更为强烈。例如，珍珠港偷袭、海湾战争和“9·11事件”发生时，标普500指数分别下跌19.8%、16.9%和11.6%。而一旦冲突爆发前，投资者有所察觉或准备的情况下，股指往往会“预演”下跌，并更有可能在冲突正式爆发时开启反弹。LPL金融高级市场策略师瑞安·德特里克（Ryan Detrick）解释道：“股市或在一段时间内波动，但历史上地缘政治事件对股票的影响往往是短暂的。”Armbruster资本管理公司总裁马克·阿姆布鲁斯特 （Mark Armbruster）统计了1926年至2013年期间的数据，发现除海湾战争期间，地缘冲突时期美股波动性大致符合历史平均水平。阿姆布鲁斯特认为，海湾战争的特殊性在于其持续时间不足一年，期间恰逢油价飙升，导致经济陷入短暂衰退。数据显示，在1926-2013年爆发战争期间，大盘股和小盘股均表现出色，且波动性较小。唯一例外是越南战争时期，股票回报率低于平均水平，但依然实现正回报。战争期间，美国各类资产表现（图源：CFA Institute）恐导致通胀进一步加剧过往经验表明，在短期的膝跳反射后，美股对地缘冲突整体反应冷淡，有时甚至被视作趁低买入的好时机。这看似冷血的逻辑背后之原因在于——尽管有时冲突非常严重，但不会对美国经济基本面和企业利润产生重大影响。目前，华尔街普遍认为，美股大盘走势最终受美联储货币政策及其对通胀和整体利率的变化所引导。富国银行经济学家尼克·本南布鲁克（Nick Bennenbroek）认为，迄今为止西方国家对俄罗斯实施的制裁对俄经济的影响有限，对全球经济增长的影响更小。事实上，即使军事冲突或制裁将俄罗斯和乌克兰推入更长期的经济衰退，对全球经济的影响也是有限的。本南布鲁克在研报中警告，乌克兰危机导致的通胀加剧，或在更大程度上对全球经济产生间接影响。“随着油价上涨，通胀恐进一步加剧，家庭购买力可能会下降，从而影响部分国家和地区的经济活动，特别是欧盟的增长前景。”富国银行研报中写道。事实上，俄乌冲突或已成为美联储正常化货币政策道路上的“新问题”。地缘政治冲突推动能源和谷物等一系列大宗商品价格飙升，布伦特原油期货价格自2014年以来首次突破100美元/桶。本周五，美国商务部将公布1月份的个人收入和支出报告，其中包括美联储首选的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出价格（PCE）指数。市场预计，1月核心PCE指数同比上涨5.1%，环比增幅0.5%。诚然，截至目前，多数华尔街投资人认为，地缘冲突对美联储的货币决策影响有限，加息将“如约而至”。不过，芝商所的美联储观察工具显示，投资者对于3月15-16日美联储货币政策会议上一次性加息50个基点的概率预测已降至17.2%，较一日前回落16.5个百分点。50基点加息概率骤降 （图源：芝商所）上周，摩根大通首席经济学家布鲁斯·卡斯曼（Bruce Kasman）预计，美联储将在接下来的九次会议中连续实施加息。将迎来史诗级反弹？截至周三收盘，标普500指数较1月3日创下的历史高位跌幅已达约12%，为2020年3月以来首次盘整回调。这是自1980年以来，标普500指数经历的第33次回调。LPL金融的统计数据显示，股指回调中位数幅度在16.5%。在此前的32次盘整回调中，1年及2年后标普500指数收涨的概率分别高达90.3%和86.7%，平均涨幅分别达24.8%和37.4%。美国著名股评家吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）预计：“一旦通胀或乌克兰危机中任一问题获得缓解，美股将迎来史诗级反弹。”1980年至今，美股回调后表现（图源：LPL 金融）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636180932,"gmtCreate":1645704239145,"gmtModify":1645704239145,"author":{"id":"3494322756552438","authorId":"3494322756552438","name":"招财猫JK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ef2191447e72ff1da4358e06057d4a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494322756552438","idStr":"3494322756552438"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>今天会熔断还是大奇迹日，2020年见证了连续熔断，2022年会见证大奇迹日吗？[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>感觉还会V回来，神奇的存在","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$感觉还会V回来，神奇的存在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636924804","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631347700,"gmtCreate":1644503544579,"gmtModify":1644503544579,"author":{"id":"3494322756552438","authorId":"3494322756552438","name":"招财猫JK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ef2191447e72ff1da4358e06057d4a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494322756552438","idStr":"3494322756552438"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>感觉今晚还是可以V回来的，不像癌股没有脊梁，早就碎成渣渣了","listText":"<a 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