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09-04
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中金:维持蔚来-SW(09866)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价51%至68港元
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09:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中金:维持蔚来-SW(09866)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价51%至68港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2564346448","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,当前蔚来-SW美股及港股对应2026年0.7x P/S,维持2025扣非盈利预测,考虑到公司产品周期强劲,26年Non-GAAP净利润上调至54.3亿元,维持跑赢行业评级。综合毛利率环比+2.3ppt至10%,汽车毛利率环比+0.1ppt至10.3%,其他毛利率转正至8.2%。公司维持指引后续车型给定价稳定、结合平台化能力提升、芯片等采购降本,实现部分车型毛利率超过20%。综合来看,2Q公司毛利率表现稳健,费用有效控制,业绩符合市场和该行预期。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,当前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">蔚来-SW</a>(09866)美股及港股对应2026年0.7x P/S,维持2025扣非盈利预测,考虑到公司产品周期强劲,26年Non-GAAP净利润上调至54.3亿元,维持跑赢行业评级。考虑到公司强劲产品周期及2026年有望实现全年盈利转正,分别上调港美股目标价51%/52%至68港币/8.8美元,均对应2026年1.0x P/S,港股和美股分别较当前股价存33%/ 38%上行空间。</p><p><strong>中金主要观点如下:</strong></p><p><strong>2Q25业绩符合市场和该行预期</strong></p><p>公司公布2Q25业绩:营收为190亿元公司毛利率表现稳健,费用有效控制,业绩符合市场和该行预期。</p><p><strong>业绩符合市场预期,毛利稳健、费用有效控制</strong></p><p>公司2Q25交付72,056辆,环比+71.2%,带动实现营收190亿元。综合毛利率环比+2.3ppt至10%,汽车毛利率环比+0.1ppt至10.3%,其他毛利率转正至8.2%(主因技术服务收入稳定增加,充换电运营持续减亏)。公司维持指引后续车型给定价稳定、结合平台化能力提升、芯片等采购降本,实现部分车型毛利率超过20%。2Q研发和销管费用分别为30.1/39.7亿元,环比继续保持下滑,带动整体费用率环比-26.3ppt。综合来看,2Q公司毛利率表现稳健,费用有效控制,业绩符合市场和该行预期。</p><p><strong>强产品周期持续,4Q月销有望破5万辆</strong></p><p>3Q25公司计划交付87,000-91,000辆,创下公司季度销量新高。本次业绩会中,公司指引在强劲的产品周期带动下,乐道L90及全新ES8两款车型有望在4Q起逐步实现单月突破1.5万辆的产销水平,并努力实现超过20%的毛利率水平,带动公司整体实现在4Q持续突破月销5万辆的交付,合计4Q销量有望突破15万辆,并实现整体16-17%的毛利率水平,并实现Non-GAAP盈利转正。展望2026年,公司现有的5566车型有望通过近期的100度电标配的调整,支持销量回升,该行认为公司2026年销量延续增长动力强。该行认为,公司正式启动内部CBU改革后(Cell Business Unit),经营和组织效率、车型的市场竞争力持续提升,后续该行也有望看到费用端效率实现逐步优化。</p><p><strong>目标全年正向自由现金流,推出世界模型</strong></p><p>公司认为在迭代及全新产品交付后,有望自2Q起销量和现金流逐步进入正轨,在强劲产品周期带动下,公司指引运营现金流持续提升,全年自由现金流有望实现正向流入。5月30日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>世界模型NWM首个版本正式开启推送,公司坚持以安全为先,在主动安全、高速领航、城区领航、智能泊车四大场景实现技术能力与用户体验的全面升级,充分展示了模型的地基稳、上限高的技术特点。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金:维持蔚来-SW(09866)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价51%至68港元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金:维持蔚来-SW(09866)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价51%至68港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-04 09:16 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1341308.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,当前蔚来-SW(09866)美股及港股对应2026年0.7x P/S,维持2025扣非盈利预测,考虑到公司产品周期强劲,26年Non-GAAP净利润上调至54.3亿元,维持跑赢行业评级。考虑到公司强劲产品周期及2026年有望实现全年盈利转正,分别上调港美股目标价51%/52%至68港币/8.8美元,均对应2026年1.0x P/S,港股和美股分别较当前股价存...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1341308.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SW":"Smurfit WestRock PLC","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1341308.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2564346448","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,当前蔚来-SW(09866)美股及港股对应2026年0.7x P/S,维持2025扣非盈利预测,考虑到公司产品周期强劲,26年Non-GAAP净利润上调至54.3亿元,维持跑赢行业评级。考虑到公司强劲产品周期及2026年有望实现全年盈利转正,分别上调港美股目标价51%/52%至68港币/8.8美元,均对应2026年1.0x P/S,港股和美股分别较当前股价存33%/ 38%上行空间。中金主要观点如下:2Q25业绩符合市场和该行预期公司公布2Q25业绩:营收为190亿元公司毛利率表现稳健,费用有效控制,业绩符合市场和该行预期。业绩符合市场预期,毛利稳健、费用有效控制公司2Q25交付72,056辆,环比+71.2%,带动实现营收190亿元。综合毛利率环比+2.3ppt至10%,汽车毛利率环比+0.1ppt至10.3%,其他毛利率转正至8.2%(主因技术服务收入稳定增加,充换电运营持续减亏)。公司维持指引后续车型给定价稳定、结合平台化能力提升、芯片等采购降本,实现部分车型毛利率超过20%。2Q研发和销管费用分别为30.1/39.7亿元,环比继续保持下滑,带动整体费用率环比-26.3ppt。综合来看,2Q公司毛利率表现稳健,费用有效控制,业绩符合市场和该行预期。强产品周期持续,4Q月销有望破5万辆3Q25公司计划交付87,000-91,000辆,创下公司季度销量新高。本次业绩会中,公司指引在强劲的产品周期带动下,乐道L90及全新ES8两款车型有望在4Q起逐步实现单月突破1.5万辆的产销水平,并努力实现超过20%的毛利率水平,带动公司整体实现在4Q持续突破月销5万辆的交付,合计4Q销量有望突破15万辆,并实现整体16-17%的毛利率水平,并实现Non-GAAP盈利转正。展望2026年,公司现有的5566车型有望通过近期的100度电标配的调整,支持销量回升,该行认为公司2026年销量延续增长动力强。该行认为,公司正式启动内部CBU改革后(Cell Business Unit),经营和组织效率、车型的市场竞争力持续提升,后续该行也有望看到费用端效率实现逐步优化。目标全年正向自由现金流,推出世界模型公司认为在迭代及全新产品交付后,有望自2Q起销量和现金流逐步进入正轨,在强劲产品周期带动下,公司指引运营现金流持续提升,全年自由现金流有望实现正向流入。5月30日,蔚来世界模型NWM首个版本正式开启推送,公司坚持以安全为先,在主动安全、高速领航、城区领航、智能泊车四大场景实现技术能力与用户体验的全面升级,充分展示了模型的地基稳、上限高的技术特点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":1,"NIO":1,"SW":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":474880488100392,"gmtCreate":1756958499259,"gmtModify":1756960868684,"author":{"id":"3494555516146171","authorId":"3494555516146171","name":"石龙y","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0c973aa69cb914b35b4bf0b356c0e8","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494555516146171","authorIdStr":"3494555516146171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474880488100392","repostId":"2564346448","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2564346448","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1756948608,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2564346448?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-04 09:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中金:维持蔚来-SW(09866)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价51%至68港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2564346448","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,当前蔚来-SW美股及港股对应2026年0.7x P/S,维持2025扣非盈利预测,考虑到公司产品周期强劲,26年Non-GAAP净利润上调至54.3亿元,维持跑赢行业评级。综合毛利率环比+2.3ppt至10%,汽车毛利率环比+0.1ppt至10.3%,其他毛利率转正至8.2%。公司维持指引后续车型给定价稳定、结合平台化能力提升、芯片等采购降本,实现部分车型毛利率超过20%。综合来看,2Q公司毛利率表现稳健,费用有效控制,业绩符合市场和该行预期。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,当前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">蔚来-SW</a>(09866)美股及港股对应2026年0.7x P/S,维持2025扣非盈利预测,考虑到公司产品周期强劲,26年Non-GAAP净利润上调至54.3亿元,维持跑赢行业评级。考虑到公司强劲产品周期及2026年有望实现全年盈利转正,分别上调港美股目标价51%/52%至68港币/8.8美元,均对应2026年1.0x P/S,港股和美股分别较当前股价存33%/ 38%上行空间。</p><p><strong>中金主要观点如下:</strong></p><p><strong>2Q25业绩符合市场和该行预期</strong></p><p>公司公布2Q25业绩:营收为190亿元公司毛利率表现稳健,费用有效控制,业绩符合市场和该行预期。</p><p><strong>业绩符合市场预期,毛利稳健、费用有效控制</strong></p><p>公司2Q25交付72,056辆,环比+71.2%,带动实现营收190亿元。综合毛利率环比+2.3ppt至10%,汽车毛利率环比+0.1ppt至10.3%,其他毛利率转正至8.2%(主因技术服务收入稳定增加,充换电运营持续减亏)。公司维持指引后续车型给定价稳定、结合平台化能力提升、芯片等采购降本,实现部分车型毛利率超过20%。2Q研发和销管费用分别为30.1/39.7亿元,环比继续保持下滑,带动整体费用率环比-26.3ppt。综合来看,2Q公司毛利率表现稳健,费用有效控制,业绩符合市场和该行预期。</p><p><strong>强产品周期持续,4Q月销有望破5万辆</strong></p><p>3Q25公司计划交付87,000-91,000辆,创下公司季度销量新高。本次业绩会中,公司指引在强劲的产品周期带动下,乐道L90及全新ES8两款车型有望在4Q起逐步实现单月突破1.5万辆的产销水平,并努力实现超过20%的毛利率水平,带动公司整体实现在4Q持续突破月销5万辆的交付,合计4Q销量有望突破15万辆,并实现整体16-17%的毛利率水平,并实现Non-GAAP盈利转正。展望2026年,公司现有的5566车型有望通过近期的100度电标配的调整,支持销量回升,该行认为公司2026年销量延续增长动力强。该行认为,公司正式启动内部CBU改革后(Cell Business Unit),经营和组织效率、车型的市场竞争力持续提升,后续该行也有望看到费用端效率实现逐步优化。</p><p><strong>目标全年正向自由现金流,推出世界模型</strong></p><p>公司认为在迭代及全新产品交付后,有望自2Q起销量和现金流逐步进入正轨,在强劲产品周期带动下,公司指引运营现金流持续提升,全年自由现金流有望实现正向流入。5月30日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>世界模型NWM首个版本正式开启推送,公司坚持以安全为先,在主动安全、高速领航、城区领航、智能泊车四大场景实现技术能力与用户体验的全面升级,充分展示了模型的地基稳、上限高的技术特点。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金:维持蔚来-SW(09866)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价51%至68港元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金:维持蔚来-SW(09866)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价51%至68港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-04 09:16 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1341308.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,当前蔚来-SW(09866)美股及港股对应2026年0.7x P/S,维持2025扣非盈利预测,考虑到公司产品周期强劲,26年Non-GAAP净利润上调至54.3亿元,维持跑赢行业评级。考虑到公司强劲产品周期及2026年有望实现全年盈利转正,分别上调港美股目标价51%/52%至68港币/8.8美元,均对应2026年1.0x P/S,港股和美股分别较当前股价存...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1341308.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SW":"Smurfit WestRock PLC","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1341308.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2564346448","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,当前蔚来-SW(09866)美股及港股对应2026年0.7x P/S,维持2025扣非盈利预测,考虑到公司产品周期强劲,26年Non-GAAP净利润上调至54.3亿元,维持跑赢行业评级。考虑到公司强劲产品周期及2026年有望实现全年盈利转正,分别上调港美股目标价51%/52%至68港币/8.8美元,均对应2026年1.0x P/S,港股和美股分别较当前股价存33%/ 38%上行空间。中金主要观点如下:2Q25业绩符合市场和该行预期公司公布2Q25业绩:营收为190亿元公司毛利率表现稳健,费用有效控制,业绩符合市场和该行预期。业绩符合市场预期,毛利稳健、费用有效控制公司2Q25交付72,056辆,环比+71.2%,带动实现营收190亿元。综合毛利率环比+2.3ppt至10%,汽车毛利率环比+0.1ppt至10.3%,其他毛利率转正至8.2%(主因技术服务收入稳定增加,充换电运营持续减亏)。公司维持指引后续车型给定价稳定、结合平台化能力提升、芯片等采购降本,实现部分车型毛利率超过20%。2Q研发和销管费用分别为30.1/39.7亿元,环比继续保持下滑,带动整体费用率环比-26.3ppt。综合来看,2Q公司毛利率表现稳健,费用有效控制,业绩符合市场和该行预期。强产品周期持续,4Q月销有望破5万辆3Q25公司计划交付87,000-91,000辆,创下公司季度销量新高。本次业绩会中,公司指引在强劲的产品周期带动下,乐道L90及全新ES8两款车型有望在4Q起逐步实现单月突破1.5万辆的产销水平,并努力实现超过20%的毛利率水平,带动公司整体实现在4Q持续突破月销5万辆的交付,合计4Q销量有望突破15万辆,并实现整体16-17%的毛利率水平,并实现Non-GAAP盈利转正。展望2026年,公司现有的5566车型有望通过近期的100度电标配的调整,支持销量回升,该行认为公司2026年销量延续增长动力强。该行认为,公司正式启动内部CBU改革后(Cell Business Unit),经营和组织效率、车型的市场竞争力持续提升,后续该行也有望看到费用端效率实现逐步优化。目标全年正向自由现金流,推出世界模型公司认为在迭代及全新产品交付后,有望自2Q起销量和现金流逐步进入正轨,在强劲产品周期带动下,公司指引运营现金流持续提升,全年自由现金流有望实现正向流入。5月30日,蔚来世界模型NWM首个版本正式开启推送,公司坚持以安全为先,在主动安全、高速领航、城区领航、智能泊车四大场景实现技术能力与用户体验的全面升级,充分展示了模型的地基稳、上限高的技术特点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":1,"NIO":1,"SW":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}