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天域之外
2020-05-09
感觉下一步是不是开始大规模通货膨胀了
抱歉,原内容已删除
天域之外
2020-04-29
$吉利德科学(GILD)$
这是疫苗吗?只是治疗有效的话,对人体的损伤还是不可逆的啊啊。
天域之外
2020-03-26
美国这疫情发展有点看不懂了。都快到全球第一了
抱歉,原内容已删除
天域之外
2020-03-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
天天暴涨暴跌
天域之外
2020-03-10
$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$
看不懂这玩的
天域之外
2020-02-18
反正就买些和疫情有关的股,放着。其他不敢碰,怕跌跌不休
港股大跌,A股飘红,谁错了?
天域之外
2019-02-06
$通用汽车(GM)$ 价格要蹦吗,财报有啥问题吗?又知道的吗
天域之外
2019-01-17
$趣头条(QTT)$一直都没空票
天域之外
2018-12-04
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$T 0的次数多久刷新
天域之外
2018-11-29
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$这股票有毒吧
天域之外
2018-11-15
$搜狗(SOGO)$最近是有什么利好吗?
天域之外
2018-10-22
$陌陌(MOMO)$感觉价格是中国人自己玩上去的
天域之外
2018-10-16
$虎牙(HUYA)$资金都在出,咋还是涨的呢
天域之外
2018-10-15
$猎豹移动(CMCM)$这股咋了,一点交易量都没
天域之外
2018-10-13
一元左右股票真恐怖
$Auris Medical Holding AG(EARS)$一元左右的股票看着好恐怖,容易大涨大跌
一元左右股票真恐怖
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>天天暴涨暴跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>天天暴涨暴跌","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$天天暴涨暴跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967272931","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":988014110,"gmtCreate":1583848674030,"gmtModify":1704351244052,"author":{"id":"3497215255019392","authorId":"3497215255019392","name":"天域之外","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497215255019392","authorIdStr":"3497215255019392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$</a>看不懂这玩的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$</a>看不懂这玩的","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$看不懂这玩的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/988014110","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":917483861,"gmtCreate":1582035317053,"gmtModify":1704345546272,"author":{"id":"3497215255019392","authorId":"3497215255019392","name":"天域之外","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497215255019392","authorIdStr":"3497215255019392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"反正就买些和疫情有关的股,放着。其他不敢碰,怕跌跌不休","listText":"反正就买些和疫情有关的股,放着。其他不敢碰,怕跌跌不休","text":"反正就买些和疫情有关的股,放着。其他不敢碰,怕跌跌不休","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917483861","repostId":"1153802934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153802934","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1582031989,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153802934?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-18 21:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股大跌,A股飘红,谁错了?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153802934","media":"格隆汇","summary":"可以说港股是对的,因为港股一直就是如此理性,理性的让人觉得可怕,它不愿意担一丝的不确定性。","content":"<p><span>作者 | 汉阳树</span></p>\n<p><span>最近的行情涨得让人目瞪口呆,无论是A股,还是港股,还是美股,当然,最夸张还是要属我们的创业板,涨得简直让人忘记了疫情这件事。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但今天出现了不和谐的声音,今天港A分道扬镳了。</span></b><span>港股大跌1.54%,结束了2月3日以来的反弹,A股上午虽然跌了,但下午还是飘红了,创业板更是大涨1个点,牛气不减。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66346cb263da8ea512caf3764e5a0336\"></p>\n<p><span>其实今天与A股分道扬镳的,还不只是港股,日股跌了1.4%,韩股跌了1.48%,欧洲这会也是绿的,美股看期指,今晚难逃低开。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们知道,这波行情让人目瞪口呆(由此也可见,市场的学习效率,A股被教育了近30年,港股美股都是百年,市场应对这类事件已经不是小孩子了),不断上扬的收益,固然让人觉得美好,却同时让人觉得惴惴不安:谁都知道美好总是短暂的。</span></p>\n<p><span>那么,</span><span><b>今天的分道扬镳,究竟谁错了呢?</b></span></p>\n<p><span>1</span></p>\n<p><span>要弄清楚这个问题,先要揪出今天海外普跌的罪魁祸首。</span></p>\n<p><span>导致今天海外普跌的原因,是国外疫情失控吗?没看到明显的证据,我觉得像中国这样重要的经济体,市场都扛过了,疫情对市场来说,已经不够刺激了。</span></p>\n<p><span>那当下还有什么?</span></p>\n<p><b><span>从恒指成分股来看,今天跌得最猛的就是舜宇和瑞声,电子板块。</span></b><span>正好,今天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>发了一个指引,它预计公司一季度的收入会低于之前的指引,上个月苹果说一季度销售收入在630亿到670亿美元之间。苹果也是第一家美国公司,称业绩将受疫情影响而低于之前预期。</span><b><span>苹果如此,其他手机厂商也不会好到哪去。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>但是,我觉得苹果的这一指引不应过分夸大,因为这个影响,应该在预料之中。就拿我们的这个春运量来看,一方面断了苹果的需求,一方面影响苹果的供应链。所以,这一指引并不是什么新鲜的东西,只不过就是苹果官方确认了一下。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1f50bc8781e0ee0ddba093dd6e1398\"></p>\n<p><span>注意另外一个东西,</span><span><b>今天除了股市跌外,人民币也跌了,重新跌破了7。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4388dfa1c553cd92b3a90bb9b9a7d36\"></p>\n<p><b><span>跟人民币有关的,自然而然会想到中美。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>梳理一下这周的信息,果然,美国的动作很多。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第一件事,</span></b><span>这件事上周日就有了,特朗普政府正在考虑停止LEAP 1C飞机发动机对中国的销售。LEAP 1C是GE跟法国的SAFRAN合资的一家公司的产品,专门为生产C919中型客机而设计,而且是目前C919唯一发动机供应。也就是说,如果LEAP 1C发动机停售,C919的生产可能无限期停摆。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第二件事</span></b><span>,昨天早上我就看到了,但似乎今天才传起来,就是美国取消了25个经济体的WTO发展中国家优惠待遇,其中包括中国和中国香港,这标志着往后在与中国的贸易中,可能就不再适用“特殊和差别待遇”,而按照发达国家标准进行。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第三件事,</span></b><span>昨天晚上的事,据相关报道,美国商务部正在起草对所谓外国直接产品规定进行调整的计划,这一规定限制外国企业将美国技术用于军事或国家安全产品。根据知情人士,如果这一调整通过,世界各地的芯片企业要在获得美国商务部的允许下,才能使用美国设备生产供应给华为的芯片。很明显,非常直观的,如果这一调整通过,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>向华为提供芯片将受限。可以看出,这一新举措目标明确,就是试图通过这些措施,切断中国在关键半导体技术的渠道。</span></p>\n<p><span>所以,我觉得今天,苹果的情绪因素有,但中美关系的微妙同样不容低估。</span></p>\n<p><span>2</span></p>\n<p><span>面对这一不确定性,港股与A股的表现完全不同。</span></p>\n<p><span>港股比较老实,如果美国趁火打劫,影响还是有的,所以先跌再说。</span></p>\n<p><span>热门的股票里,舜宇跌得比较多,瑞声跌得比较多,另外引人注意的就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>,今天一度扑街了10个点。说起来也有意思,看最近的投行报告,几乎所有的外资行都看空中芯国际,几乎所有的内资行都看好中芯,这种分歧,宛如当年的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>另外,港股的基本仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>跌了2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>跌了2.78%。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>A股就完全不同了,比如昨天传可能停售发动机,大飞机板块几乎涨停。</span><b><span>这就是大A的逻辑,你停售,我国产替代。</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23240a0357ad89a12b8ebb95f0c01fe\"></p>\n<p><span>至于今天,一个中芯倒下了,下午几乎是千万个A股中芯站起来了,你限制,我国产替代。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5972199c47787e13c05a9ce91308d1f1\"></p>\n<p><span>还比如,稀土,基本每次中美关系起微妙变化时,稀土都要涨波,言下之意,来而不往非礼也。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a412993c90f28569b50451bc43e3e6\"></p>\n<p><span>相比港股的老实,A股的逻辑洋溢着可爱的乐观,这也并非坏事,因为早晚,主动或被迫,我们都要走向国产替代这条路,最终一定是有大鱼走出来,即使会死掉无数的小鱼。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>只是乐观归乐观,可爱归可爱,一个阶段只能支撑一个阶段的估值,太过了,清算就会来临。A股的乐观取决于央妈的水,以及事态发展的程度。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>3</span></p>\n<p><b><span>央妈的水应该是不用太担心的,后天是LPR报价形成日,从之前的MLF执行利率看,LPR下降是大概率事件。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>而从2月15日,央妈在应对疫情联防机制新闻发布会上的表态看,央妈承认有通胀压力,但表示中国绝对不会出现大规模通胀,这表明央妈对通胀的容忍度会提高,宽松的货币政策不会马上转向。</span></p>\n<p><span>那中美关系呢?</span></p>\n<p><span>疫情期间,美国仍然在搞事,大有趁火打劫的意思。这也再次表明,中美的关系再无可能回到从前,这不是一个短期的结论,而是未来很长一段时间的结论。</span></p>\n<p><span>其实认识到这点后,一切也不会是那么糟糕。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>需知美国并不是铁板一块,在高呼整体的国家利益背后,其实是各个分裂的利益。</span></b><span>切断中国关键技术的接触,是政客满足选民的需求,实现的是政客的利益,而非整个美国人的利益。</span></p>\n<p><span>就好比美国政府想停售发动机,GE就提出抗议了,因为这损害了它的经济利益,而发动机另一主人SAFRAN背后的法国政府也不大可能答应。所以,我们要做的,就是把朋友搞得多多的。</span></p>\n<p><span>另外一点,打铁最终是需要自身硬。疫情本是内忧,如果美国借机生事,可以说是又增了一道外患。内忧外患之下,只有内部深化改革,释放出新的红利。这点上,央妈放水是远远不够的。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>所以,可以说港股是对的,因为港股一直就是如此理性,理性的让人觉得可怕,它不愿意担一丝的不确定性。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>但也可以说A股是对的,因为A股相信,相信央妈会进一步放水,相信主动或被迫下的政策利好会发生,相信国运下的国产替代一定会发生。当然,最主要还是第一个相信,第二个相信里的政策释放至少会延续到两会。</span></p>\n<p><span>只有当这一相信开始逆转,或者估值已经高到这些信仰都无法覆盖的时候,A股才会由乐观转向恐慌,目前还没看到这一迹象。</span></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股大跌,A股飘红,谁错了?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股大跌,A股飘红,谁错了?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-02-18 21:19 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/348361><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | 汉阳树\n最近的行情涨得让人目瞪口呆,无论是A股,还是港股,还是美股,当然,最夸张还是要属我们的创业板,涨得简直让人忘记了疫情这件事。\n但今天出现了不和谐的声音,今天港A分道扬镳了。港股大跌1.54%,结束了2月3日以来的反弹,A股上午虽然跌了,但下午还是飘红了,创业板更是大涨1个点,牛气不减。\n\n其实今天与A股分道扬镳的,还不只是港股,日股跌了1.4%,韩股跌了1.48%,欧洲这会也是绿...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/348361\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06098b48e39bd8440d2f72717a1ba5a0","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/348361","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1153802934","content_text":"作者 | 汉阳树\n最近的行情涨得让人目瞪口呆,无论是A股,还是港股,还是美股,当然,最夸张还是要属我们的创业板,涨得简直让人忘记了疫情这件事。\n但今天出现了不和谐的声音,今天港A分道扬镳了。港股大跌1.54%,结束了2月3日以来的反弹,A股上午虽然跌了,但下午还是飘红了,创业板更是大涨1个点,牛气不减。\n\n其实今天与A股分道扬镳的,还不只是港股,日股跌了1.4%,韩股跌了1.48%,欧洲这会也是绿的,美股看期指,今晚难逃低开。\n我们知道,这波行情让人目瞪口呆(由此也可见,市场的学习效率,A股被教育了近30年,港股美股都是百年,市场应对这类事件已经不是小孩子了),不断上扬的收益,固然让人觉得美好,却同时让人觉得惴惴不安:谁都知道美好总是短暂的。\n那么,今天的分道扬镳,究竟谁错了呢?\n1\n要弄清楚这个问题,先要揪出今天海外普跌的罪魁祸首。\n导致今天海外普跌的原因,是国外疫情失控吗?没看到明显的证据,我觉得像中国这样重要的经济体,市场都扛过了,疫情对市场来说,已经不够刺激了。\n那当下还有什么?\n从恒指成分股来看,今天跌得最猛的就是舜宇和瑞声,电子板块。正好,今天苹果发了一个指引,它预计公司一季度的收入会低于之前的指引,上个月苹果说一季度销售收入在630亿到670亿美元之间。苹果也是第一家美国公司,称业绩将受疫情影响而低于之前预期。苹果如此,其他手机厂商也不会好到哪去。\n但是,我觉得苹果的这一指引不应过分夸大,因为这个影响,应该在预料之中。就拿我们的这个春运量来看,一方面断了苹果的需求,一方面影响苹果的供应链。所以,这一指引并不是什么新鲜的东西,只不过就是苹果官方确认了一下。\n\n注意另外一个东西,今天除了股市跌外,人民币也跌了,重新跌破了7。\n\n跟人民币有关的,自然而然会想到中美。\n梳理一下这周的信息,果然,美国的动作很多。\n第一件事,这件事上周日就有了,特朗普政府正在考虑停止LEAP 1C飞机发动机对中国的销售。LEAP 1C是GE跟法国的SAFRAN合资的一家公司的产品,专门为生产C919中型客机而设计,而且是目前C919唯一发动机供应。也就是说,如果LEAP 1C发动机停售,C919的生产可能无限期停摆。\n第二件事,昨天早上我就看到了,但似乎今天才传起来,就是美国取消了25个经济体的WTO发展中国家优惠待遇,其中包括中国和中国香港,这标志着往后在与中国的贸易中,可能就不再适用“特殊和差别待遇”,而按照发达国家标准进行。\n第三件事,昨天晚上的事,据相关报道,美国商务部正在起草对所谓外国直接产品规定进行调整的计划,这一规定限制外国企业将美国技术用于军事或国家安全产品。根据知情人士,如果这一调整通过,世界各地的芯片企业要在获得美国商务部的允许下,才能使用美国设备生产供应给华为的芯片。很明显,非常直观的,如果这一调整通过,台积电向华为提供芯片将受限。可以看出,这一新举措目标明确,就是试图通过这些措施,切断中国在关键半导体技术的渠道。\n所以,我觉得今天,苹果的情绪因素有,但中美关系的微妙同样不容低估。\n2\n面对这一不确定性,港股与A股的表现完全不同。\n港股比较老实,如果美国趁火打劫,影响还是有的,所以先跌再说。\n热门的股票里,舜宇跌得比较多,瑞声跌得比较多,另外引人注意的就是中芯国际,今天一度扑街了10个点。说起来也有意思,看最近的投行报告,几乎所有的外资行都看空中芯国际,几乎所有的内资行都看好中芯,这种分歧,宛如当年的长城汽车。\n另外,港股的基本仓腾讯跌了2%,汇丰跌了2.78%。\nA股就完全不同了,比如昨天传可能停售发动机,大飞机板块几乎涨停。这就是大A的逻辑,你停售,我国产替代。\n\n至于今天,一个中芯倒下了,下午几乎是千万个A股中芯站起来了,你限制,我国产替代。\n\n还比如,稀土,基本每次中美关系起微妙变化时,稀土都要涨波,言下之意,来而不往非礼也。\n\n相比港股的老实,A股的逻辑洋溢着可爱的乐观,这也并非坏事,因为早晚,主动或被迫,我们都要走向国产替代这条路,最终一定是有大鱼走出来,即使会死掉无数的小鱼。\n只是乐观归乐观,可爱归可爱,一个阶段只能支撑一个阶段的估值,太过了,清算就会来临。A股的乐观取决于央妈的水,以及事态发展的程度。\n3\n央妈的水应该是不用太担心的,后天是LPR报价形成日,从之前的MLF执行利率看,LPR下降是大概率事件。\n而从2月15日,央妈在应对疫情联防机制新闻发布会上的表态看,央妈承认有通胀压力,但表示中国绝对不会出现大规模通胀,这表明央妈对通胀的容忍度会提高,宽松的货币政策不会马上转向。\n那中美关系呢?\n疫情期间,美国仍然在搞事,大有趁火打劫的意思。这也再次表明,中美的关系再无可能回到从前,这不是一个短期的结论,而是未来很长一段时间的结论。\n其实认识到这点后,一切也不会是那么糟糕。\n需知美国并不是铁板一块,在高呼整体的国家利益背后,其实是各个分裂的利益。切断中国关键技术的接触,是政客满足选民的需求,实现的是政客的利益,而非整个美国人的利益。\n就好比美国政府想停售发动机,GE就提出抗议了,因为这损害了它的经济利益,而发动机另一主人SAFRAN背后的法国政府也不大可能答应。所以,我们要做的,就是把朋友搞得多多的。\n另外一点,打铁最终是需要自身硬。疫情本是内忧,如果美国借机生事,可以说是又增了一道外患。内忧外患之下,只有内部深化改革,释放出新的红利。这点上,央妈放水是远远不够的。\n所以,可以说港股是对的,因为港股一直就是如此理性,理性的让人觉得可怕,它不愿意担一丝的不确定性。\n但也可以说A股是对的,因为A股相信,相信央妈会进一步放水,相信主动或被迫下的政策利好会发生,相信国运下的国产替代一定会发生。当然,最主要还是第一个相信,第二个相信里的政策释放至少会延续到两会。\n只有当这一相信开始逆转,或者估值已经高到这些信仰都无法覆盖的时候,A股才会由乐观转向恐慌,目前还没看到这一迹象。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.6,"HSI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396129,"gmtCreate":1549464235465,"gmtModify":1704788978197,"author":{"id":"3497215255019392","authorId":"3497215255019392","name":"天域之外","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497215255019392","authorIdStr":"3497215255019392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$通用汽车(GM)$ 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21:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股大跌,A股飘红,谁错了?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153802934","media":"格隆汇","summary":"可以说港股是对的,因为港股一直就是如此理性,理性的让人觉得可怕,它不愿意担一丝的不确定性。","content":"<p><span>作者 | 汉阳树</span></p>\n<p><span>最近的行情涨得让人目瞪口呆,无论是A股,还是港股,还是美股,当然,最夸张还是要属我们的创业板,涨得简直让人忘记了疫情这件事。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但今天出现了不和谐的声音,今天港A分道扬镳了。</span></b><span>港股大跌1.54%,结束了2月3日以来的反弹,A股上午虽然跌了,但下午还是飘红了,创业板更是大涨1个点,牛气不减。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66346cb263da8ea512caf3764e5a0336\"></p>\n<p><span>其实今天与A股分道扬镳的,还不只是港股,日股跌了1.4%,韩股跌了1.48%,欧洲这会也是绿的,美股看期指,今晚难逃低开。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们知道,这波行情让人目瞪口呆(由此也可见,市场的学习效率,A股被教育了近30年,港股美股都是百年,市场应对这类事件已经不是小孩子了),不断上扬的收益,固然让人觉得美好,却同时让人觉得惴惴不安:谁都知道美好总是短暂的。</span></p>\n<p><span>那么,</span><span><b>今天的分道扬镳,究竟谁错了呢?</b></span></p>\n<p><span>1</span></p>\n<p><span>要弄清楚这个问题,先要揪出今天海外普跌的罪魁祸首。</span></p>\n<p><span>导致今天海外普跌的原因,是国外疫情失控吗?没看到明显的证据,我觉得像中国这样重要的经济体,市场都扛过了,疫情对市场来说,已经不够刺激了。</span></p>\n<p><span>那当下还有什么?</span></p>\n<p><b><span>从恒指成分股来看,今天跌得最猛的就是舜宇和瑞声,电子板块。</span></b><span>正好,今天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>发了一个指引,它预计公司一季度的收入会低于之前的指引,上个月苹果说一季度销售收入在630亿到670亿美元之间。苹果也是第一家美国公司,称业绩将受疫情影响而低于之前预期。</span><b><span>苹果如此,其他手机厂商也不会好到哪去。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>但是,我觉得苹果的这一指引不应过分夸大,因为这个影响,应该在预料之中。就拿我们的这个春运量来看,一方面断了苹果的需求,一方面影响苹果的供应链。所以,这一指引并不是什么新鲜的东西,只不过就是苹果官方确认了一下。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1f50bc8781e0ee0ddba093dd6e1398\"></p>\n<p><span>注意另外一个东西,</span><span><b>今天除了股市跌外,人民币也跌了,重新跌破了7。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4388dfa1c553cd92b3a90bb9b9a7d36\"></p>\n<p><b><span>跟人民币有关的,自然而然会想到中美。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>梳理一下这周的信息,果然,美国的动作很多。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第一件事,</span></b><span>这件事上周日就有了,特朗普政府正在考虑停止LEAP 1C飞机发动机对中国的销售。LEAP 1C是GE跟法国的SAFRAN合资的一家公司的产品,专门为生产C919中型客机而设计,而且是目前C919唯一发动机供应。也就是说,如果LEAP 1C发动机停售,C919的生产可能无限期停摆。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第二件事</span></b><span>,昨天早上我就看到了,但似乎今天才传起来,就是美国取消了25个经济体的WTO发展中国家优惠待遇,其中包括中国和中国香港,这标志着往后在与中国的贸易中,可能就不再适用“特殊和差别待遇”,而按照发达国家标准进行。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第三件事,</span></b><span>昨天晚上的事,据相关报道,美国商务部正在起草对所谓外国直接产品规定进行调整的计划,这一规定限制外国企业将美国技术用于军事或国家安全产品。根据知情人士,如果这一调整通过,世界各地的芯片企业要在获得美国商务部的允许下,才能使用美国设备生产供应给华为的芯片。很明显,非常直观的,如果这一调整通过,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>向华为提供芯片将受限。可以看出,这一新举措目标明确,就是试图通过这些措施,切断中国在关键半导体技术的渠道。</span></p>\n<p><span>所以,我觉得今天,苹果的情绪因素有,但中美关系的微妙同样不容低估。</span></p>\n<p><span>2</span></p>\n<p><span>面对这一不确定性,港股与A股的表现完全不同。</span></p>\n<p><span>港股比较老实,如果美国趁火打劫,影响还是有的,所以先跌再说。</span></p>\n<p><span>热门的股票里,舜宇跌得比较多,瑞声跌得比较多,另外引人注意的就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>,今天一度扑街了10个点。说起来也有意思,看最近的投行报告,几乎所有的外资行都看空中芯国际,几乎所有的内资行都看好中芯,这种分歧,宛如当年的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>另外,港股的基本仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>跌了2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>跌了2.78%。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>A股就完全不同了,比如昨天传可能停售发动机,大飞机板块几乎涨停。</span><b><span>这就是大A的逻辑,你停售,我国产替代。</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23240a0357ad89a12b8ebb95f0c01fe\"></p>\n<p><span>至于今天,一个中芯倒下了,下午几乎是千万个A股中芯站起来了,你限制,我国产替代。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5972199c47787e13c05a9ce91308d1f1\"></p>\n<p><span>还比如,稀土,基本每次中美关系起微妙变化时,稀土都要涨波,言下之意,来而不往非礼也。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a412993c90f28569b50451bc43e3e6\"></p>\n<p><span>相比港股的老实,A股的逻辑洋溢着可爱的乐观,这也并非坏事,因为早晚,主动或被迫,我们都要走向国产替代这条路,最终一定是有大鱼走出来,即使会死掉无数的小鱼。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>只是乐观归乐观,可爱归可爱,一个阶段只能支撑一个阶段的估值,太过了,清算就会来临。A股的乐观取决于央妈的水,以及事态发展的程度。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>3</span></p>\n<p><b><span>央妈的水应该是不用太担心的,后天是LPR报价形成日,从之前的MLF执行利率看,LPR下降是大概率事件。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>而从2月15日,央妈在应对疫情联防机制新闻发布会上的表态看,央妈承认有通胀压力,但表示中国绝对不会出现大规模通胀,这表明央妈对通胀的容忍度会提高,宽松的货币政策不会马上转向。</span></p>\n<p><span>那中美关系呢?</span></p>\n<p><span>疫情期间,美国仍然在搞事,大有趁火打劫的意思。这也再次表明,中美的关系再无可能回到从前,这不是一个短期的结论,而是未来很长一段时间的结论。</span></p>\n<p><span>其实认识到这点后,一切也不会是那么糟糕。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>需知美国并不是铁板一块,在高呼整体的国家利益背后,其实是各个分裂的利益。</span></b><span>切断中国关键技术的接触,是政客满足选民的需求,实现的是政客的利益,而非整个美国人的利益。</span></p>\n<p><span>就好比美国政府想停售发动机,GE就提出抗议了,因为这损害了它的经济利益,而发动机另一主人SAFRAN背后的法国政府也不大可能答应。所以,我们要做的,就是把朋友搞得多多的。</span></p>\n<p><span>另外一点,打铁最终是需要自身硬。疫情本是内忧,如果美国借机生事,可以说是又增了一道外患。内忧外患之下,只有内部深化改革,释放出新的红利。这点上,央妈放水是远远不够的。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>所以,可以说港股是对的,因为港股一直就是如此理性,理性的让人觉得可怕,它不愿意担一丝的不确定性。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>但也可以说A股是对的,因为A股相信,相信央妈会进一步放水,相信主动或被迫下的政策利好会发生,相信国运下的国产替代一定会发生。当然,最主要还是第一个相信,第二个相信里的政策释放至少会延续到两会。</span></p>\n<p><span>只有当这一相信开始逆转,或者估值已经高到这些信仰都无法覆盖的时候,A股才会由乐观转向恐慌,目前还没看到这一迹象。</span></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股大跌,A股飘红,谁错了?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股大跌,A股飘红,谁错了?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-02-18 21:19 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/348361><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | 汉阳树\n最近的行情涨得让人目瞪口呆,无论是A股,还是港股,还是美股,当然,最夸张还是要属我们的创业板,涨得简直让人忘记了疫情这件事。\n但今天出现了不和谐的声音,今天港A分道扬镳了。港股大跌1.54%,结束了2月3日以来的反弹,A股上午虽然跌了,但下午还是飘红了,创业板更是大涨1个点,牛气不减。\n\n其实今天与A股分道扬镳的,还不只是港股,日股跌了1.4%,韩股跌了1.48%,欧洲这会也是绿...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/348361\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06098b48e39bd8440d2f72717a1ba5a0","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/348361","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1153802934","content_text":"作者 | 汉阳树\n最近的行情涨得让人目瞪口呆,无论是A股,还是港股,还是美股,当然,最夸张还是要属我们的创业板,涨得简直让人忘记了疫情这件事。\n但今天出现了不和谐的声音,今天港A分道扬镳了。港股大跌1.54%,结束了2月3日以来的反弹,A股上午虽然跌了,但下午还是飘红了,创业板更是大涨1个点,牛气不减。\n\n其实今天与A股分道扬镳的,还不只是港股,日股跌了1.4%,韩股跌了1.48%,欧洲这会也是绿的,美股看期指,今晚难逃低开。\n我们知道,这波行情让人目瞪口呆(由此也可见,市场的学习效率,A股被教育了近30年,港股美股都是百年,市场应对这类事件已经不是小孩子了),不断上扬的收益,固然让人觉得美好,却同时让人觉得惴惴不安:谁都知道美好总是短暂的。\n那么,今天的分道扬镳,究竟谁错了呢?\n1\n要弄清楚这个问题,先要揪出今天海外普跌的罪魁祸首。\n导致今天海外普跌的原因,是国外疫情失控吗?没看到明显的证据,我觉得像中国这样重要的经济体,市场都扛过了,疫情对市场来说,已经不够刺激了。\n那当下还有什么?\n从恒指成分股来看,今天跌得最猛的就是舜宇和瑞声,电子板块。正好,今天苹果发了一个指引,它预计公司一季度的收入会低于之前的指引,上个月苹果说一季度销售收入在630亿到670亿美元之间。苹果也是第一家美国公司,称业绩将受疫情影响而低于之前预期。苹果如此,其他手机厂商也不会好到哪去。\n但是,我觉得苹果的这一指引不应过分夸大,因为这个影响,应该在预料之中。就拿我们的这个春运量来看,一方面断了苹果的需求,一方面影响苹果的供应链。所以,这一指引并不是什么新鲜的东西,只不过就是苹果官方确认了一下。\n\n注意另外一个东西,今天除了股市跌外,人民币也跌了,重新跌破了7。\n\n跟人民币有关的,自然而然会想到中美。\n梳理一下这周的信息,果然,美国的动作很多。\n第一件事,这件事上周日就有了,特朗普政府正在考虑停止LEAP 1C飞机发动机对中国的销售。LEAP 1C是GE跟法国的SAFRAN合资的一家公司的产品,专门为生产C919中型客机而设计,而且是目前C919唯一发动机供应。也就是说,如果LEAP 1C发动机停售,C919的生产可能无限期停摆。\n第二件事,昨天早上我就看到了,但似乎今天才传起来,就是美国取消了25个经济体的WTO发展中国家优惠待遇,其中包括中国和中国香港,这标志着往后在与中国的贸易中,可能就不再适用“特殊和差别待遇”,而按照发达国家标准进行。\n第三件事,昨天晚上的事,据相关报道,美国商务部正在起草对所谓外国直接产品规定进行调整的计划,这一规定限制外国企业将美国技术用于军事或国家安全产品。根据知情人士,如果这一调整通过,世界各地的芯片企业要在获得美国商务部的允许下,才能使用美国设备生产供应给华为的芯片。很明显,非常直观的,如果这一调整通过,台积电向华为提供芯片将受限。可以看出,这一新举措目标明确,就是试图通过这些措施,切断中国在关键半导体技术的渠道。\n所以,我觉得今天,苹果的情绪因素有,但中美关系的微妙同样不容低估。\n2\n面对这一不确定性,港股与A股的表现完全不同。\n港股比较老实,如果美国趁火打劫,影响还是有的,所以先跌再说。\n热门的股票里,舜宇跌得比较多,瑞声跌得比较多,另外引人注意的就是中芯国际,今天一度扑街了10个点。说起来也有意思,看最近的投行报告,几乎所有的外资行都看空中芯国际,几乎所有的内资行都看好中芯,这种分歧,宛如当年的长城汽车。\n另外,港股的基本仓腾讯跌了2%,汇丰跌了2.78%。\nA股就完全不同了,比如昨天传可能停售发动机,大飞机板块几乎涨停。这就是大A的逻辑,你停售,我国产替代。\n\n至于今天,一个中芯倒下了,下午几乎是千万个A股中芯站起来了,你限制,我国产替代。\n\n还比如,稀土,基本每次中美关系起微妙变化时,稀土都要涨波,言下之意,来而不往非礼也。\n\n相比港股的老实,A股的逻辑洋溢着可爱的乐观,这也并非坏事,因为早晚,主动或被迫,我们都要走向国产替代这条路,最终一定是有大鱼走出来,即使会死掉无数的小鱼。\n只是乐观归乐观,可爱归可爱,一个阶段只能支撑一个阶段的估值,太过了,清算就会来临。A股的乐观取决于央妈的水,以及事态发展的程度。\n3\n央妈的水应该是不用太担心的,后天是LPR报价形成日,从之前的MLF执行利率看,LPR下降是大概率事件。\n而从2月15日,央妈在应对疫情联防机制新闻发布会上的表态看,央妈承认有通胀压力,但表示中国绝对不会出现大规模通胀,这表明央妈对通胀的容忍度会提高,宽松的货币政策不会马上转向。\n那中美关系呢?\n疫情期间,美国仍然在搞事,大有趁火打劫的意思。这也再次表明,中美的关系再无可能回到从前,这不是一个短期的结论,而是未来很长一段时间的结论。\n其实认识到这点后,一切也不会是那么糟糕。\n需知美国并不是铁板一块,在高呼整体的国家利益背后,其实是各个分裂的利益。切断中国关键技术的接触,是政客满足选民的需求,实现的是政客的利益,而非整个美国人的利益。\n就好比美国政府想停售发动机,GE就提出抗议了,因为这损害了它的经济利益,而发动机另一主人SAFRAN背后的法国政府也不大可能答应。所以,我们要做的,就是把朋友搞得多多的。\n另外一点,打铁最终是需要自身硬。疫情本是内忧,如果美国借机生事,可以说是又增了一道外患。内忧外患之下,只有内部深化改革,释放出新的红利。这点上,央妈放水是远远不够的。\n所以,可以说港股是对的,因为港股一直就是如此理性,理性的让人觉得可怕,它不愿意担一丝的不确定性。\n但也可以说A股是对的,因为A股相信,相信央妈会进一步放水,相信主动或被迫下的政策利好会发生,相信国运下的国产替代一定会发生。当然,最主要还是第一个相信,第二个相信里的政策释放至少会延续到两会。\n只有当这一相信开始逆转,或者估值已经高到这些信仰都无法覆盖的时候,A股才会由乐观转向恐慌,目前还没看到这一迹象。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.6,"HSI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381549,"gmtCreate":1547736364987,"gmtModify":1704787133895,"author":{"id":"3497215255019392","authorId":"3497215255019392","name":"天域之外","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497215255019392","authorIdStr":"3497215255019392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$趣头条(QTT)$一直都没空票","listText":"$趣头条(QTT)$一直都没空票","text":"$趣头条(QTT)$一直都没空票","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381549","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306913,"gmtCreate":1539702085749,"gmtModify":1704777754116,"author":{"id":"3497215255019392","authorId":"3497215255019392","name":"天域之外","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497215255019392","authorIdStr":"3497215255019392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$虎牙(HUYA)$资金都在出,咋还是涨的呢","listText":"$虎牙(HUYA)$资金都在出,咋还是涨的呢","text":"$虎牙(HUYA)$资金都在出,咋还是涨的呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306913","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305230,"gmtCreate":1539434501036,"gmtModify":1704777541551,"author":{"id":"3497215255019392","authorId":"3497215255019392","name":"天域之外","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497215255019392","authorIdStr":"3497215255019392"},"themes":[],"title":"一元左右股票真恐怖","htmlText":"$Auris 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