yue28的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2020-09-23

$8i Enterprises Acquisition Corp.(JFK)$不是预计9月23日完成合并？

2021-04-07

$应用材料(AMAT)$出什么状况？跳水

2021-09-08

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$还真是27块像魔咒，过不去

2021-07-14

$AMC院线(AMC)$今天不会破30吧

2021-06-16

$AMC院线(AMC)$心脏脆弱的慎入[龇牙]

2021-05-28

$AMC院线(AMC)$跳水前的倔强僵持

2021-02-16

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$玩不玩自己决定，扯什么托？就是有托，谁也没拦着你自己做决定。

2021-04-08

说真的，您先把基本概念搞清楚，别误导别人哈

全球芯片短缺，制造商密集涨价，将产生哪些影响?

2021-02-23

$Yalla Group(YALA)$为啥没有财报呢？

2021-02-15

主办承销券商是谁？这样的公司券商、审计和律所三家如何出的报告。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-10-01

$EQOS(EQOS)$今天合并，看表现喽

2021-09-15

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$突破27？不敢相信

2021-07-06

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@圣地麦加:$AMC院线(AMC)$我刚才又买了点，基本满仓了。[笑哭]

2021-06-17

$Cellect Biotechnology Ltd.(APOP)$盘子太小

2021-06-10

$AMC院线(AMC)$gme和clov都跌了，那位大神给说说amc为啥这么胶着

2021-05-28

$AMC院线(AMC)$已经没有空单了？

2021-05-25

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@华尔街地摊:$AMD(AMD)$这你也要跌。。。淘宝

2021-05-13

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$为什么我买不了这个etf？

2021-05-12

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$选入MSCI指数[思考]

2021-05-05

$联合租赁(URI)$有人关注这股吗？啥情况？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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19:01","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"全球芯片短缺，制造商密集涨价，将产生哪些影响?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144774507","media":"JIC投资观察","summary":"作为全球最大晶圆代工厂的台积电近期连续三次涨价：3月29日，12英寸晶圆价格上调25%;3月30日提高驱动芯片的代工报价;4月1日确认从年底取消对客户的优惠。\n此外，中芯国际、联华电子、力积电等多家芯","content":"<p>作为全球最大晶圆代工厂的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>近期连续三次涨价：3月29日，12英寸晶圆价格上调25%;3月30日提高驱动芯片的代工报价;4月1日确认从年底取消对客户的优惠。</p>\n<p>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>、联华电子、力积电等多家芯片制造商也纷纷涨价。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>已经通知客户，4月1日起将全线涨价，已下单未上线的订单则将按新价格计价，其涨价幅度大约在15%-30%之间。</p>\n<p>同时，4月1日市场流传出台积电总裁魏哲家的一封内部信件，提到台积电拟在未来3年计划投资1000亿美元来扩充产能。</p>\n<p>其他半导体巨头也不甘人后：2021年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>资本开支计划300亿美元，同比增加20%，并耗资170亿美元资美国设立新的芯片工厂;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>(INTC.US)将投资200亿美元在美国亚利桑那州兴建2座晶圆代工厂，重返芯片代工环节。</p>\n<p>但业界也有声音认为，目前全球晶圆制造产能紧缺可能是因为下游在恐慌性备货，导致下单力度超过真实需求。<b>台积电董事长刘德音更直言，新冠疫情或贸易纷争导致了供给吃紧，目前半导体真实产能仍大于真实需求，主要经济体竞相在国内建立芯片产能是低效率的。</b></p>\n<p>本轮芯片短缺危机，始于去年新冠大流行时的一个“误判”。当新冠疫情在世界各地蔓延时，许多企业预计人们会削减开支。</p>\n<p>然而，被禁足的人们，开始不停地在家网购高科技产品。他们购买更好的电脑和更大的显示器，以便远程工作;他们给孩子们购买新的Pad用于远程学习。</p>\n<p>为了让居家隔离变得更有意思，他们还购买4K电视、游戏机、牛奶起泡器、空气炸锅和浸入式搅拌机，<b>新冠大流行俨然变成了延长版的“黑色星期五”。</b></p>\n<p>新冠疫情导致<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>终端的需求飙升，以至于半导体产业链无法为所有的电脑、电视和游戏机显示屏制造足够多的显示驱动芯片。另外，还有很多公司正在给新产品添加屏幕，例如冰箱、智能温度计和汽车娱乐系统，进一步加剧供需失衡。</p>\n<p>汽车系统驱动芯片的供应特别受到挤压，是因为它们通常是在8nm硅片上制造的，而不是在更高级的12nm硅片上制造的。世界第二大硅晶圆制造商的Sumco Corp.报告称，到2020年，8nm设备生产线的平均月产能约为5000片晶圆，比2017年要少。</p>\n<p>从去年第四季度开始爆发的汽车芯片问题一直持续至今，3月以来，沃尔沃、通用(GM.US)、福特(F.US)、丰田(TM.US)、本田(HMC.US)、日产、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>(NIO.US)等车企陆续表示，因半导体的供应紧张暂停部分工厂的生产计划。</p>\n<p>01全球缺“芯”冲击了哪些行业?</p>\n<p><b>消费电子和汽车首当其冲。</b></p>\n<p>消费电子：以手机、无线耳机、游戏机为代表的产品都受到了不同程度的影响。3月31日富士康表示，芯片短缺将使其今年出货量减少10%，可作为全球消费电子行业缺芯程度的参考。小米CEO雷军近日接受采访时更谨慎，表示手机行业的缺芯可能要延续2年时间，终端价格将难免上涨。</p>\n<p>汽车：汽车芯片交付周期(至少6个月以上)比消费电子更长，疫情对汽车的需求冲击又比消费电子更大，导致疫情后汽车芯片的供需错配更加严重。目前全球包括大众、福特、通用、丰田、本田、沃尔沃、蔚来在内的多个知名厂商都有或长或短的停工举动。</p>\n<p>市场调研机构Bernstein Research认为，2021年缺芯可能导致全球汽车减产至少450万辆(2019年全球汽车产量不到9200万辆，相当于产量下滑5%)。</p>\n<p>02 全球缺“芯”的根源在哪里?</p>\n<p><b>有需求短期暴增，也有供需错配矛盾。</b></p>\n<p>疫情催生局部需求井喷。<b>虽然疫情对汽车等行业造成了严重打击，但对PC、平板、游戏机等宅经济行业却产生了前所未有的拉动。</b>以PC为例，2020年全球PC销量同比增长了5%，终结了连续多年的负增长，也创下2010年以来增速之最。</p>\n<p>除了像PC这种传统行业因为疫情“老树换新芽”，诸如智能汽车、人工智能、5G产业链等新兴下游这两年也在急剧扩张，整体需求芯片呈现爆发增长的态势。</p>\n<p>供需错配进一步加剧了矛盾。<b>这次全球缺芯背后有两个明显的供需错配特征：一是8寸成熟制程缺货更甚12寸先进制程。过去几年，上游晶圆厂的扩产主要集中在更“先进”的12寸上</b>。</p>\n<p>根据IC Insight统计，预计10nm以下先进制程市占率将从2019年的4%大幅提升至2024的30%，而10nm -20nm和20nm-40nm制程的比例将从52%萎缩至33%。</p>\n<p>但问题是，这一轮需求的井喷很多集中在相对“落后”而又有成本优势的的8寸产能上，比如PC中相对传统的电源、天线、显示控制等环节。二是黑天鹅事件频发养成了下游的恐慌性备货习惯。</p>\n<p>正如台积电董事长刘德音所言，<b>这两年新冠疫情等黑天鹅事件接连冲击全球半导体市场，导致大量应用端企业大幅囤芯以应对潜在的供应链威胁，存在“超额下单”的现象，进一步加剧了短期供给紧张。</b></p>\n<p>03 全球缺“芯”带来哪些投资机会?</p>\n<p><b>上游晶圆厂商，8寸产能多的有额外弹性</b>。全球晶圆代工龙头台积电、三星、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">联电</a>、格芯、中芯都会受益于这一波晶圆短缺和提价浪潮。紧缺程度更高的8寸制程龙头华虹还能享受额外弹性。</p>\n<p><b>备货充足的汽车或消费电子厂商。</b>比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、小米。在大众、福特因缺芯纷纷下调今年销量目标时，特斯拉一季度电动车交付量大超市场预期，印证了其强大的供应链能力。而小米此前表示已经提前锁定了今年2亿片手机主芯片，也属于先发制人备货充足。</p>\n<p><b>受益晶圆厂扩展的“铲子类”公司。</b>全球晶圆厂扩产新闻屡屡刷屏，比如3月25日英特尔计划200亿美元新建代工厂，4月1日台积电表示未来3年投资1000亿美元扩产(此前已公布2021年资本开支同比+47%至280亿美元)。</p>\n<p>这些扩产计划能否全部落地存疑，但至少对上游“卖铲子”的公司是个重大利好，比如全球封装设备龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00522\">ASM Pacific</a>，客户包括了台积电、英特尔、长电。再比如从中国走向全球的半导体清洗设备龙头盛美，客户包括了中芯、SK Hynix等。</p>","source":"lsy1617793214709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/444118.html><strong>JIC投资观察</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作为全球最大晶圆代工厂的台积电近期连续三次涨价：3月29日，12英寸晶圆价格上调25%;3月30日提高驱动芯片的代工报价;4月1日确认从年底取消对客户的优惠。\n此外，中芯国际、联华电子、力积电等多家芯片制造商也纷纷涨价。中芯国际已经通知客户，4月1日起将全线涨价，已下单未上线的订单则将按新价格计价，其涨价幅度大约在15%-30%之间。\n同时，4月1日市场流传出台积电总裁魏哲家的一封内部信件，提到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/444118.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"00981":"中芯国际","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/444118.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144774507","content_text":"作为全球最大晶圆代工厂的台积电近期连续三次涨价：3月29日，12英寸晶圆价格上调25%;3月30日提高驱动芯片的代工报价;4月1日确认从年底取消对客户的优惠。\n此外，中芯国际、联华电子、力积电等多家芯片制造商也纷纷涨价。中芯国际已经通知客户，4月1日起将全线涨价，已下单未上线的订单则将按新价格计价，其涨价幅度大约在15%-30%之间。\n同时，4月1日市场流传出台积电总裁魏哲家的一封内部信件，提到台积电拟在未来3年计划投资1000亿美元来扩充产能。\n其他半导体巨头也不甘人后：2021年三星资本开支计划300亿美元，同比增加20%，并耗资170亿美元资美国设立新的芯片工厂;英特尔(INTC.US)将投资200亿美元在美国亚利桑那州兴建2座晶圆代工厂，重返芯片代工环节。\n但业界也有声音认为，目前全球晶圆制造产能紧缺可能是因为下游在恐慌性备货，导致下单力度超过真实需求。台积电董事长刘德音更直言，新冠疫情或贸易纷争导致了供给吃紧，目前半导体真实产能仍大于真实需求，主要经济体竞相在国内建立芯片产能是低效率的。\n本轮芯片短缺危机，始于去年新冠大流行时的一个“误判”。当新冠疫情在世界各地蔓延时，许多企业预计人们会削减开支。\n然而，被禁足的人们，开始不停地在家网购高科技产品。他们购买更好的电脑和更大的显示器，以便远程工作;他们给孩子们购买新的Pad用于远程学习。\n为了让居家隔离变得更有意思，他们还购买4K电视、游戏机、牛奶起泡器、空气炸锅和浸入式搅拌机，新冠大流行俨然变成了延长版的“黑色星期五”。\n新冠疫情导致智能终端的需求飙升，以至于半导体产业链无法为所有的电脑、电视和游戏机显示屏制造足够多的显示驱动芯片。另外，还有很多公司正在给新产品添加屏幕，例如冰箱、智能温度计和汽车娱乐系统，进一步加剧供需失衡。\n汽车系统驱动芯片的供应特别受到挤压，是因为它们通常是在8nm硅片上制造的，而不是在更高级的12nm硅片上制造的。世界第二大硅晶圆制造商的Sumco Corp.报告称，到2020年，8nm设备生产线的平均月产能约为5000片晶圆，比2017年要少。\n从去年第四季度开始爆发的汽车芯片问题一直持续至今，3月以来，沃尔沃、通用(GM.US)、福特(F.US)、丰田(TM.US)、本田(HMC.US)、日产、蔚来(NIO.US)等车企陆续表示，因半导体的供应紧张暂停部分工厂的生产计划。\n01全球缺“芯”冲击了哪些行业?\n消费电子和汽车首当其冲。\n消费电子：以手机、无线耳机、游戏机为代表的产品都受到了不同程度的影响。3月31日富士康表示，芯片短缺将使其今年出货量减少10%，可作为全球消费电子行业缺芯程度的参考。小米CEO雷军近日接受采访时更谨慎，表示手机行业的缺芯可能要延续2年时间，终端价格将难免上涨。\n汽车：汽车芯片交付周期(至少6个月以上)比消费电子更长，疫情对汽车的需求冲击又比消费电子更大，导致疫情后汽车芯片的供需错配更加严重。目前全球包括大众、福特、通用、丰田、本田、沃尔沃、蔚来在内的多个知名厂商都有或长或短的停工举动。\n市场调研机构Bernstein Research认为，2021年缺芯可能导致全球汽车减产至少450万辆(2019年全球汽车产量不到9200万辆，相当于产量下滑5%)。\n02 全球缺“芯”的根源在哪里?\n有需求短期暴增，也有供需错配矛盾。\n疫情催生局部需求井喷。虽然疫情对汽车等行业造成了严重打击，但对PC、平板、游戏机等宅经济行业却产生了前所未有的拉动。以PC为例，2020年全球PC销量同比增长了5%，终结了连续多年的负增长，也创下2010年以来增速之最。\n除了像PC这种传统行业因为疫情“老树换新芽”，诸如智能汽车、人工智能、5G产业链等新兴下游这两年也在急剧扩张，整体需求芯片呈现爆发增长的态势。\n供需错配进一步加剧了矛盾。这次全球缺芯背后有两个明显的供需错配特征：一是8寸成熟制程缺货更甚12寸先进制程。过去几年，上游晶圆厂的扩产主要集中在更“先进”的12寸上。\n根据IC Insight统计，预计10nm以下先进制程市占率将从2019年的4%大幅提升至2024的30%，而10nm 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