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智乾未来
老韭菜一个,喜欢炒股,喜欢研究金融经济。谢谢关注
IP属地:湖北
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智乾未来
08-19
$Bullish(BLSH)$
之前搞EOS的韭菜收割机开的,别碰,建议拉进黑名单。
智乾未来
07-25
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
300是守不住了,如果大盘调整,看跌200-230
智乾未来
07-04
$CRWV 20251017 180.0 CALL$
智乾未来
07-04
$CRWV 20251017 180.0 CALL$
智乾未来
06-30
$TSLA 20250718 310.0 PUT$
智乾未来
06-26
涨了500%多了,跌个7%就说跌的幅度大[笑哭][笑哭][笑哭]
智乾未来
06-24
$曹操出行(02643)$
垃圾,开盘就砸,再打新股我是🐶
智乾未来
2024-11-20
波动会大,大概率财报公布后高开低走,最后小幅收跌,双杀期权
智乾未来
2024-10-30
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
都看好,我感觉才爆出来后要大跌,因为都看好。
智乾未来
2024-10-30
$理想汽车(LI)$
从三傻估值来看,估值较高 ,不仅问界,25年好几个竞品都要上增程,压力更大,明年纯电车型我是不看好,因为太迟了,理想做纯电,拿什么跟老纯电选手比优势??现有的增程用户群,基本没有太大必要换纯电。不管是空间需求还是里程需求,都没有要换的理由。财报即便好,也大概率大跌 跟
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
智乾未来
2024-06-19
$英伟达(NVDA)$
我做ai相关开发,自己也有两张4090,也清楚国内和欧美做大模型的大厂对卡的需求已经没有去年那么大了,多模态虽然对算力要求增加,但增幅不算几何级那种。有没有泡沫算是知道点。反正好自为之吧。曾经我也在新能源车股上几十倍过,后来,呵呵,经历过才会明白。
智乾未来
2024-06-13
$英伟达(NVDA)$
当一只股票晒收益的人越来越多,甚至到了疯狂晒的时候,一般就是这只股票的高位了。
智乾未来
2024-06-03
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
这货只值200。
智乾未来
2024-04-19
除了炒股以外,我送外卖不超时,没有差评,也让我实现了财富增长。
智乾未来
2024-04-05
踏青的在田里拍的,很喜欢站在田间地头听虫鸣鸟叫,那一刻感觉内心很安静,没有压力!最惨的是我拍完没几分钟就下大雨全身都淋湿了!
智乾未来
2024-03-07
$台积电(TSM)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
台积电的炒作逻辑是,第一梯队炒的中后期,开始炒第二梯队,在第二梯队去找还没有炒过的标的,最好是梯队龙头,那么作为代工厂的台积电就符合上述几点。
智乾未来
2024-03-07
$台积电(TSM)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
今年毫无疑问,台积电会进入万亿市值俱乐部。
智乾未来
2024-02-29
$Snowflake(SNOW)$
小抄底试试水
智乾未来
2024-02-29
外行叫宕机,老韭菜都叫插针
智乾未来
2023-08-29
英伟达,特斯拉call持有中[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
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300是守不住了,如果大盘调整,看跌200-230","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460561993846816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"22006910441208","authorId":"22006910441208","name":"Leon86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"22006910441208","authorIdStr":"22006910441208"},"content":"既然这样,请你3倍做空吧!下单吧!","text":"既然这样,请你3倍做空吧!下单吧!","html":"既然这样,请你3倍做空吧!下单吧!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":453086609617272,"gmtCreate":1751638974987,"gmtModify":1751638977236,"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499573028018910","authorIdStr":"3499573028018910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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国际2个点,1是俄乌冲突导致能源价格进一步上涨,间接助推通胀持续走高,。第2点,美联储这一次货币紧缩(关水龙头)速度之快,超出了市场预期,我在最近一期的小虎访谈里(https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/637636914?invite=9UENE&lang=zh_CN)也提过,和08年比,这一次停止QE到加息节奏非常之快。而且美联储上一次会议也明确表示,2季度(5月)继续加息之外还将推出缩表计划。如果加息50个基点基础之上, 缩表力度也超预期,那么可预见的是股市会有一波恐慌情绪的下跌,可以预判它是二次探底。 国内和欧美一样,我们也面临着高通胀压力,油价在内的各种生活物资都在涨,今年疫情防控形势也比去年严峻,疫情对家庭收入会造成影响,中小企业日子也不如去年好过,去年欧美停工停产下很多订单都转向国内,今年欧美对疫情已经是彻底躺平,复工复产恢复正常,降低了对国内生产订单需求。国内今年暂时还是维持着货币宽松的政策,适当放松地产业,还有减税降费,税费改革等各种好的政策。大A今年也是一波回调,在美联储的紧缩货币政策下,也属正常,今年应该还会持续低位震荡,幻想走牛暂不具备条件。 最后说最惨的中概股 中概股,实际上中概股从去年就开始慢慢回调,今年一季度来了一波大跌探底,中概持续下跌的内因,政策风险,国内和美双方政策不确定性。国内政策的案例有滴滴,电子烟,课外教育。滴滴还在运营,课外教育嘛,俞敏洪直接把公司桌椅板凳书都捐了。还有去年各大巨头参与的社区团购买菜,好在刚冒头就控制住了。国内这些政策都是利好民生的角度出台的,比如打击课外教育,补习班,因为课外教育影响很深很广,具体不是一两句说的清,对这些政策我都是举双手支持的。但是国际资本只看你有没有新的业务增长点,没有就抛弃,也是BAT的持续回调","listText":"粗略的对国际,国内,疫情,股市这几个点,做个简单的复盘小结 国际2个点,1是俄乌冲突导致能源价格进一步上涨,间接助推通胀持续走高,。第2点,美联储这一次货币紧缩(关水龙头)速度之快,超出了市场预期,我在最近一期的小虎访谈里(https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/637636914?invite=9UENE&lang=zh_CN)也提过,和08年比,这一次停止QE到加息节奏非常之快。而且美联储上一次会议也明确表示,2季度(5月)继续加息之外还将推出缩表计划。如果加息50个基点基础之上, 缩表力度也超预期,那么可预见的是股市会有一波恐慌情绪的下跌,可以预判它是二次探底。 国内和欧美一样,我们也面临着高通胀压力,油价在内的各种生活物资都在涨,今年疫情防控形势也比去年严峻,疫情对家庭收入会造成影响,中小企业日子也不如去年好过,去年欧美停工停产下很多订单都转向国内,今年欧美对疫情已经是彻底躺平,复工复产恢复正常,降低了对国内生产订单需求。国内今年暂时还是维持着货币宽松的政策,适当放松地产业,还有减税降费,税费改革等各种好的政策。大A今年也是一波回调,在美联储的紧缩货币政策下,也属正常,今年应该还会持续低位震荡,幻想走牛暂不具备条件。 最后说最惨的中概股 中概股,实际上中概股从去年就开始慢慢回调,今年一季度来了一波大跌探底,中概持续下跌的内因,政策风险,国内和美双方政策不确定性。国内政策的案例有滴滴,电子烟,课外教育。滴滴还在运营,课外教育嘛,俞敏洪直接把公司桌椅板凳书都捐了。还有去年各大巨头参与的社区团购买菜,好在刚冒头就控制住了。国内这些政策都是利好民生的角度出台的,比如打击课外教育,补习班,因为课外教育影响很深很广,具体不是一两句说的清,对这些政策我都是举双手支持的。但是国际资本只看你有没有新的业务增长点,没有就抛弃,也是BAT的持续回调","text":"粗略的对国际,国内,疫情,股市这几个点,做个简单的复盘小结 国际2个点,1是俄乌冲突导致能源价格进一步上涨,间接助推通胀持续走高,。第2点,美联储这一次货币紧缩(关水龙头)速度之快,超出了市场预期,我在最近一期的小虎访谈里(https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/637636914?invite=9UENE&lang=zh_CN)也提过,和08年比,这一次停止QE到加息节奏非常之快。而且美联储上一次会议也明确表示,2季度(5月)继续加息之外还将推出缩表计划。如果加息50个基点基础之上, 缩表力度也超预期,那么可预见的是股市会有一波恐慌情绪的下跌,可以预判它是二次探底。 国内和欧美一样,我们也面临着高通胀压力,油价在内的各种生活物资都在涨,今年疫情防控形势也比去年严峻,疫情对家庭收入会造成影响,中小企业日子也不如去年好过,去年欧美停工停产下很多订单都转向国内,今年欧美对疫情已经是彻底躺平,复工复产恢复正常,降低了对国内生产订单需求。国内今年暂时还是维持着货币宽松的政策,适当放松地产业,还有减税降费,税费改革等各种好的政策。大A今年也是一波回调,在美联储的紧缩货币政策下,也属正常,今年应该还会持续低位震荡,幻想走牛暂不具备条件。 最后说最惨的中概股 中概股,实际上中概股从去年就开始慢慢回调,今年一季度来了一波大跌探底,中概持续下跌的内因,政策风险,国内和美双方政策不确定性。国内政策的案例有滴滴,电子烟,课外教育。滴滴还在运营,课外教育嘛,俞敏洪直接把公司桌椅板凳书都捐了。还有去年各大巨头参与的社区团购买菜,好在刚冒头就控制住了。国内这些政策都是利好民生的角度出台的,比如打击课外教育,补习班,因为课外教育影响很深很广,具体不是一两句说的清,对这些政策我都是举双手支持的。但是国际资本只看你有没有新的业务增长点,没有就抛弃,也是BAT的持续回调","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610755216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000314","authorId":"9000000000000314","name":"刀哥拉丝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e51a63f0a1a13425ecd08fb8583607a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000314","idStr":"9000000000000314"},"content":"2季度(5月)继续加息之外还将推出缩表计划,这个杀伤力比较大","text":"2季度(5月)继续加息之外还将推出缩表计划,这个杀伤力比较大","html":"2季度(5月)继续加息之外还将推出缩表计划,这个杀伤力比较大"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979602529,"gmtCreate":1598160711361,"gmtModify":1704217932418,"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>前两天第一次体验了一次拼多多,下单了一箱鲜花饼,发的丹鸟快递,我第一次听说这快递,用时5天,价格和淘宝其实没啥区别。诱导我充了一个拼多多会员送的5元无门槛券,但是我发现这个5元券不能全场通用抵扣。我倒不是在乎这几元钱,只是一种受骗的感觉。还有拼多多弹窗和流氓软件有的一拼,每天弹通知你有现金可以提现,诱导你分享群,邀请好友,套路你帮着恶意分享,我昨天卸载了拼多多。从这一次体验来说,拼多多想转型吸引中高端客单价用户真的很难,作为一些不那么在意几块钱的差价用户群,他们其实比较反感这种弹窗,诱导分享,诱导各种套路券的行为的。你来多两次他们可能就真的觉得这很low,甚至像我一样卸载软件。我还是习惯京东和淘宝。说到新人券我觉得美团很有诚意,前两天我打开美团直接给我弹出个10元话费券,绑卡还减6元,我就充了30话费,结果真的只付了14元钱。拼多多要从京东天猫里夺客流,不是那么容易。拼多多目前我没有看到它有什么健康的盈利模式,所以我仍然坚持:拼多多目前的估值是有泡沫的。京东的优势是自建物流和各地省会都有分仓,速度快,家电类售后比较好。淘宝天猫优势是老牌,根基深。拼多多的印象就是百亿补贴+便宜,裂变的社交推广,基本上我微信里一些经常推广分享拼多多的,都被踢出群了,分享给我砍价的也被我拉黑了。拼多多我看空是因为目前估值存在泡沫,但是不建议做空。以上仅个人想法,不做投资意见。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a><a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUGCU\">$TradeUP Global Corp.(TUGCU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>开盘能赚吗???[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUGCU\">$TradeUP Global Corp.(TUGCU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>开盘能赚吗???[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","text":"$TradeUP Global Corp.(TUGCU)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$开盘能赚吗???[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c4a3ff9580fbd5d017190a877a43ed2","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":31,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109217210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3471182401467947","authorId":"3471182401467947","name":"斐洛王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1be45c00d8c67437542b6417af99d49","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3471182401467947","idStr":"3471182401467947"},"content":"230,卧槽[捂脸]","text":"230,卧槽[捂脸]","html":"230,卧槽[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955755568,"gmtCreate":1592565374354,"gmtModify":1704199755196,"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>这个月冲8元附近,下个月冲击10元附近震荡,等8月份2季度财报出来就在13-15块的位置了,财报符合预期或者超预期,股价在新高(站上13.8元)位置是合理的。贴几张我的生活图[得意] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>这个月冲8元附近,下个月冲击10元附近震荡,等8月份2季度财报出来就在13-15块的位置了,财报符合预期或者超预期,股价在新高(站上13.8元)位置是合理的。贴几张我的生活图[得意] ","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$这个月冲8元附近,下个月冲击10元附近震荡,等8月份2季度财报出来就在13-15块的位置了,财报符合预期或者超预期,股价在新高(站上13.8元)位置是合理的。贴几张我的生活图[得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8798e97ddf1f119ea57580ae63f1ce","width":"2000","height":"1500"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f545a04b204072cfd9c48b2b41e21a2","width":"2000","height":"1500"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58f8d96b58e2c9eb42a5df252388653","width":"1500","height":"2000"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":24,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955755568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3525842772451901","authorId":"3525842772451901","name":"司徒南","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ae89df6139fe49b7124179cde9d96e0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3525842772451901","idStr":"3525842772451901"},"content":"蔚来的长期看涨期权怎么买","text":"蔚来的长期看涨期权怎么买","html":"蔚来的长期看涨期权怎么买"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978261977,"gmtCreate":1599232187599,"gmtModify":1703818181976,"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[可爱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":35,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978261977","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548833144199437","authorId":"3548833144199437","name":"华尔街小街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21c453aa154a0385dea9bd3e2202b604","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3548833144199437","idStr":"3548833144199437"},"content":"股价涨不涨不,涨多少不知道,但明年盈利……就靠出租车、公务车、换电池?买出租车的钱谁掏?而公务车玩的是权术,你当吉利、比亚迪都看着?你到底是咋算出来能盈利?就靠换电池技术?电车最终玩的是生态,华为能配合多少还得看国家咋玩,凭nio自己,没戏。老虎社区水太深……","text":"股价涨不涨不,涨多少不知道,但明年盈利……就靠出租车、公务车、换电池?买出租车的钱谁掏?而公务车玩的是权术,你当吉利、比亚迪都看着?你到底是咋算出来能盈利?就靠换电池技术?电车最终玩的是生态,华为能配合多少还得看国家咋玩,凭nio自己,没戏。老虎社区水太深……","html":"股价涨不涨不,涨多少不知道,但明年盈利……就靠出租车、公务车、换电池?买出租车的钱谁掏?而公务车玩的是权术,你当吉利、比亚迪都看着?你到底是咋算出来能盈利?就靠换电池技术?电车最终玩的是生态,华为能配合多少还得看国家咋玩,凭nio自己,没戏。老虎社区水太深……"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613387932,"gmtCreate":1649724124688,"gmtModify":1649808093480,"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英伟达的“四面楚歌”今年显卡的大幅回落背后的原因,说重点,主因:以太坊原计划6月转pos已经是众人皆知,一是分片式将大幅提升处理能力,二是环保压力,根据最近v神视频访问和Timbeiko公布的会议纪要来看,目前还有不少的细节问题没有解决,6月完成pos的转移,有些困难,肯定要推迟。以太坊即便不能按计划在6月完成pos 转移。我推测最迟也会在今年年底圣诞节前完成,转pos后,将彻底告别pow显卡算力挖矿,包括v神在内和社区都认为pow挖矿是浪费电力能源,国内包括一部分国家已经把挖矿列为非法也是这个原因,国内今年发现挖矿无论大小矿场还是个人,一律没收设备。显卡售价虽然因为以太坊转poS机制即将到来的原因,提前暴跌了一波,但是部分型号至今现在还比上市原价高,毕竟距离转pos 还有几个月的时间,矿老板手里的卡还能坚持挖几个月,虽然不挖以太也还可以挖其它的币,但作为流量王的以太坊,占据了公链交易的主要份额。需求:大量20.30系矿卡还未被市场消耗,势必会影响消费者对年底上市的40系列尝新升级需求,40系列不再可能出现20.30系列加价几倍一卡难求的现象,因为矿老板要少了一大半,pc端暂时也没有类似吃鸡游戏刺激中高端显卡需求,可以推断40上市不久会有优惠。C端需求的断崖式减少,代表着未来至少1年内不再会有高溢价,高加价利润。竞争:除了A卡,现在英特尔也推出了3款显卡,加入了显卡市场的竞争,在本就即将萎缩的市场需求背景下,又多了一个抢食的对手,而且这个对手也还不弱,英特尔自家cpu搭配自家显卡发挥性能和兼容性甚至有可能超过英伟达一部分中低端同级别卡。另外,还有来自国产GPU替代的潜在影响,比如景嘉微9系最近也获得国内政府部门的大订单,国产gpu 替代,降低进口依赖已经是趋势,对A,N,I三家的影响会越来越大。由此可以推断,4季度后财报同比增速会大幅降低,利润同比肯定是负增涨,如果快的话,","listText":"英伟达的“四面楚歌”今年显卡的大幅回落背后的原因,说重点,主因:以太坊原计划6月转pos已经是众人皆知,一是分片式将大幅提升处理能力,二是环保压力,根据最近v神视频访问和Timbeiko公布的会议纪要来看,目前还有不少的细节问题没有解决,6月完成pos的转移,有些困难,肯定要推迟。以太坊即便不能按计划在6月完成pos 转移。我推测最迟也会在今年年底圣诞节前完成,转pos后,将彻底告别pow显卡算力挖矿,包括v神在内和社区都认为pow挖矿是浪费电力能源,国内包括一部分国家已经把挖矿列为非法也是这个原因,国内今年发现挖矿无论大小矿场还是个人,一律没收设备。显卡售价虽然因为以太坊转poS机制即将到来的原因,提前暴跌了一波,但是部分型号至今现在还比上市原价高,毕竟距离转pos 还有几个月的时间,矿老板手里的卡还能坚持挖几个月,虽然不挖以太也还可以挖其它的币,但作为流量王的以太坊,占据了公链交易的主要份额。需求:大量20.30系矿卡还未被市场消耗,势必会影响消费者对年底上市的40系列尝新升级需求,40系列不再可能出现20.30系列加价几倍一卡难求的现象,因为矿老板要少了一大半,pc端暂时也没有类似吃鸡游戏刺激中高端显卡需求,可以推断40上市不久会有优惠。C端需求的断崖式减少,代表着未来至少1年内不再会有高溢价,高加价利润。竞争:除了A卡,现在英特尔也推出了3款显卡,加入了显卡市场的竞争,在本就即将萎缩的市场需求背景下,又多了一个抢食的对手,而且这个对手也还不弱,英特尔自家cpu搭配自家显卡发挥性能和兼容性甚至有可能超过英伟达一部分中低端同级别卡。另外,还有来自国产GPU替代的潜在影响,比如景嘉微9系最近也获得国内政府部门的大订单,国产gpu 替代,降低进口依赖已经是趋势,对A,N,I三家的影响会越来越大。由此可以推断,4季度后财报同比增速会大幅降低,利润同比肯定是负增涨,如果快的话,","text":"英伟达的“四面楚歌”今年显卡的大幅回落背后的原因,说重点,主因:以太坊原计划6月转pos已经是众人皆知,一是分片式将大幅提升处理能力,二是环保压力,根据最近v神视频访问和Timbeiko公布的会议纪要来看,目前还有不少的细节问题没有解决,6月完成pos的转移,有些困难,肯定要推迟。以太坊即便不能按计划在6月完成pos 转移。我推测最迟也会在今年年底圣诞节前完成,转pos后,将彻底告别pow显卡算力挖矿,包括v神在内和社区都认为pow挖矿是浪费电力能源,国内包括一部分国家已经把挖矿列为非法也是这个原因,国内今年发现挖矿无论大小矿场还是个人,一律没收设备。显卡售价虽然因为以太坊转poS机制即将到来的原因,提前暴跌了一波,但是部分型号至今现在还比上市原价高,毕竟距离转pos 还有几个月的时间,矿老板手里的卡还能坚持挖几个月,虽然不挖以太也还可以挖其它的币,但作为流量王的以太坊,占据了公链交易的主要份额。需求:大量20.30系矿卡还未被市场消耗,势必会影响消费者对年底上市的40系列尝新升级需求,40系列不再可能出现20.30系列加价几倍一卡难求的现象,因为矿老板要少了一大半,pc端暂时也没有类似吃鸡游戏刺激中高端显卡需求,可以推断40上市不久会有优惠。C端需求的断崖式减少,代表着未来至少1年内不再会有高溢价,高加价利润。竞争:除了A卡,现在英特尔也推出了3款显卡,加入了显卡市场的竞争,在本就即将萎缩的市场需求背景下,又多了一个抢食的对手,而且这个对手也还不弱,英特尔自家cpu搭配自家显卡发挥性能和兼容性甚至有可能超过英伟达一部分中低端同级别卡。另外,还有来自国产GPU替代的潜在影响,比如景嘉微9系最近也获得国内政府部门的大订单,国产gpu 替代,降低进口依赖已经是趋势,对A,N,I三家的影响会越来越大。由此可以推断,4季度后财报同比增速会大幅降低,利润同比肯定是负增涨,如果快的话,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613387932","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":20864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000481","authorId":"9000000000000481","name":"银河小铁骑00","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631beb8e4e432c5add0866e8379057d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000481","idStr":"9000000000000481"},"content":"6月完成pos的转移,有些困难,肯定要推迟,市场的反应有点过度了","text":"6月完成pos的转移,有些困难,肯定要推迟,市场的反应有点过度了","html":"6月完成pos的转移,有些困难,肯定要推迟,市场的反应有点过度了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371905957,"gmtCreate":1618898293279,"gmtModify":1623072558540,"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"themes":[],"title":"老虎7岁啦,7周年生日祝福!","htmlText":"\n \n \n 虎友们大家好,我是青城软件,我用了老虎证券3年多了,我也属虎,祝老虎证券7周岁生日快乐!祝老虎证券健康成长,越办越好!!祝老虎证券能成为一家百年券商!!!<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@爱发红包的虎妞</a> \n \n","listText":"虎友们大家好,我是青城软件,我用了老虎证券3年多了,我也属虎,祝老虎证券7周岁生日快乐!祝老虎证券健康成长,越办越好!!祝老虎证券能成为一家百年券商!!!<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@爱发红包的虎妞</a> ","text":"虎友们大家好,我是青城软件,我用了老虎证券3年多了,我也属虎,祝老虎证券7周岁生日快乐!祝老虎证券健康成长,越办越好!!祝老虎证券能成为一家百年券商!!!$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $老虎证券(TIGR)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$$标普500(.SPX)$ @爱发红包的虎妞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371905957","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"1784090b87474b14aacedabb0e9650a1","tweetId":"371905957","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/295a566c5285890817195173017/7JInjkADQbwA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8894a85e530d03f1cb242f5e6833e90"},"viewCount":10536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20722186463466","authorId":"20722186463466","name":"爱发红包的虎妞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf27be178fbc21279d1959ce5bec4e7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"20722186463466","idStr":"20722186463466"},"content":"羡慕你有大虎[贱笑]","text":"羡慕你有大虎[贱笑]","html":"羡慕你有大虎[贱笑]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325314981,"gmtCreate":1615864280543,"gmtModify":1703494165800,"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">$亿邦国际(EBON)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$嘉楠科技(CAN)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBAI\">$500彩票网(WBAI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>一年前比特币去年和美股一起暴跌,最低3800,一年后如今6w附近。。无论是头条抖音自媒体,还是社区,还会看到坚定看多的一些贴,热度也未见降低。。这个位置,我个人是建议不要再碰比特币和相关股,有仓位的也尽快清仓。原因有几点:从比特币历史走势,牛市过后,熊市到底部的过程,一般都在2年以上。我不去猜测比特币牛市是否结束,至少,6w牛市行情已经走过一半以上。越往后,风险越来越大。有的人说比特币会涨到10w,我觉得没有争论意义,因为我想表达的点是收益和风险比。矿机股的股价,也是和比特币行情高度关联的,当比特币大跌,随之而来的是挖矿收益下降,购买矿机的意愿较低,包括显卡价格也会一样回归。记得上一次牛市结束后,华强北的矿机商从加价卖矿机到最后打折亏本处理矿机,倒卖矿机的档口凉了8成。牛市的时候,大多数人往往很容易忽视风险,也不愿意看到有人泼冷水,这个时候你说要崩盘,很多人第一反应你就是踏空🐶,庄托。。正如熊市比特币四五千的时候,以往热闹的群里都没人说话了,若突然在群里说比特币明年涨到10w,大多数人都觉得你肯定被套太久,套疯了。。交易其实就是买入机会,卖出风险。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">$亿邦国际(EBON)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$嘉楠科技(CAN)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBAI\">$500彩票网(WBAI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>一年前比特币去年和美股一起暴跌,最低3800,一年后如今6w附近。。无论是头条抖音自媒体,还是社区,还会看到坚定看多的一些贴,热度也未见降低。。这个位置,我个人是建议不要再碰比特币和相关股,有仓位的也尽快清仓。原因有几点:从比特币历史走势,牛市过后,熊市到底部的过程,一般都在2年以上。我不去猜测比特币牛市是否结束,至少,6w牛市行情已经走过一半以上。越往后,风险越来越大。有的人说比特币会涨到10w,我觉得没有争论意义,因为我想表达的点是收益和风险比。矿机股的股价,也是和比特币行情高度关联的,当比特币大跌,随之而来的是挖矿收益下降,购买矿机的意愿较低,包括显卡价格也会一样回归。记得上一次牛市结束后,华强北的矿机商从加价卖矿机到最后打折亏本处理矿机,倒卖矿机的档口凉了8成。牛市的时候,大多数人往往很容易忽视风险,也不愿意看到有人泼冷水,这个时候你说要崩盘,很多人第一反应你就是踏空🐶,庄托。。正如熊市比特币四五千的时候,以往热闹的群里都没人说话了,若突然在群里说比特币明年涨到10w,大多数人都觉得你肯定被套太久,套疯了。。交易其实就是买入机会,卖出风险。。","text":"$亿邦国际(EBON)$$嘉楠科技(CAN)$$500彩票网(WBAI)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$一年前比特币去年和美股一起暴跌,最低3800,一年后如今6w附近。。无论是头条抖音自媒体,还是社区,还会看到坚定看多的一些贴,热度也未见降低。。这个位置,我个人是建议不要再碰比特币和相关股,有仓位的也尽快清仓。原因有几点:从比特币历史走势,牛市过后,熊市到底部的过程,一般都在2年以上。我不去猜测比特币牛市是否结束,至少,6w牛市行情已经走过一半以上。越往后,风险越来越大。有的人说比特币会涨到10w,我觉得没有争论意义,因为我想表达的点是收益和风险比。矿机股的股价,也是和比特币行情高度关联的,当比特币大跌,随之而来的是挖矿收益下降,购买矿机的意愿较低,包括显卡价格也会一样回归。记得上一次牛市结束后,华强北的矿机商从加价卖矿机到最后打折亏本处理矿机,倒卖矿机的档口凉了8成。牛市的时候,大多数人往往很容易忽视风险,也不愿意看到有人泼冷水,这个时候你说要崩盘,很多人第一反应你就是踏空🐶,庄托。。正如熊市比特币四五千的时候,以往热闹的群里都没人说话了,若突然在群里说比特币明年涨到10w,大多数人都觉得你肯定被套太久,套疯了。。交易其实就是买入机会,卖出风险。。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b76bbe3914e77aaa31931d903bf6ba2","width":"1500","height":"2000"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325314981","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575617761593951","authorId":"3575617761593951","name":"杨优秀财神附体","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55433c1050a2021ef293ebce1aeccf22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575617761593951","idStr":"3575617761593951"},"content":"可以逐步重仓疫情复苏股,比特币这样风险类型的可以少点仓位,搏一下倍数","text":"可以逐步重仓疫情复苏股,比特币这样风险类型的可以少点仓位,搏一下倍数","html":"可以逐步重仓疫情复苏股,比特币这样风险类型的可以少点仓位,搏一下倍数"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318326044885144,"gmtCreate":1718754861332,"gmtModify":1718760841596,"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 我做ai相关开发,自己也有两张4090,也清楚国内和欧美做大模型的大厂对卡的需求已经没有去年那么大了,多模态虽然对算力要求增加,但增幅不算几何级那种。有没有泡沫算是知道点。反正好自为之吧。曾经我也在新能源车股上几十倍过,后来,呵呵,经历过才会明白。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 我做ai相关开发,自己也有两张4090,也清楚国内和欧美做大模型的大厂对卡的需求已经没有去年那么大了,多模态虽然对算力要求增加,但增幅不算几何级那种。有没有泡沫算是知道点。反正好自为之吧。曾经我也在新能源车股上几十倍过,后来,呵呵,经历过才会明白。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 我做ai相关开发,自己也有两张4090,也清楚国内和欧美做大模型的大厂对卡的需求已经没有去年那么大了,多模态虽然对算力要求增加,但增幅不算几何级那种。有没有泡沫算是知道点。反正好自为之吧。曾经我也在新能源车股上几十倍过,后来,呵呵,经历过才会明白。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318326044885144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574720750802706","authorId":"3574720750802706","name":"Xzhouz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8056d36a8d17266379632873b136f02c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574720750802706","idStr":"3574720750802706"},"content":"大佬,英伟达盈利这种高增速预计啥时候到头呢,明年吗?","text":"大佬,英伟达盈利这种高增速预计啥时候到头呢,明年吗?","html":"大佬,英伟达盈利这种高增速预计啥时候到头呢,明年吗?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397644335,"gmtCreate":1608262403927,"gmtModify":1703852093591,"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>网上查了一些资料,包括在jmia做卖家的口碑,大概就是这个平台对于卖家管理和罚款比较严格,有很多国内卖家在上面开店,存在很多刷单行为,感觉和初期淘宝差不多,另外卖家普遍反映平台的人工客服服务处理效率很低,跟国内完全没法比。这也正常,想我去年申请一个插件测试资格,发邮件等回复,不行又重申请,折腾下来10天才审核通过,同样的事换在国内最多2天就审核完了。订单量有增涨,但是有刷单行为不好说实际真实单量。它自己的jmia pay支付(和国内支付宝一样)用户增长率很快。有较大想象空间,但是短期来说,盈利的可能性比较低,这只股100亿以下市值以内,我觉得泡沫不大可以炒一下,超过100亿的时候就要谨慎了。这个号称非洲亚马逊的最大问题就是快递效率会影响增长,快递效率是基于非洲各小国基建道路条件,我也专门看了关于穿越非洲各国的纪录片,从纪录片和抖音上来看,非洲的基建现在还有很多城市市区都没有实现道路硬化。这个股只能往5-10年以后去想象。如果以后一直保持成为非洲最大的电商平台,随着时间推移,基建慢慢完善,居民收入慢慢提升,还是有很大的想象空间的。非州大多数人穷,非洲人大多没有储蓄习惯,人口多,所以购买力其实很强。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>网上查了一些资料,包括在jmia做卖家的口碑,大概就是这个平台对于卖家管理和罚款比较严格,有很多国内卖家在上面开店,存在很多刷单行为,感觉和初期淘宝差不多,另外卖家普遍反映平台的人工客服服务处理效率很低,跟国内完全没法比。这也正常,想我去年申请一个插件测试资格,发邮件等回复,不行又重申请,折腾下来10天才审核通过,同样的事换在国内最多2天就审核完了。订单量有增涨,但是有刷单行为不好说实际真实单量。它自己的jmia pay支付(和国内支付宝一样)用户增长率很快。有较大想象空间,但是短期来说,盈利的可能性比较低,这只股100亿以下市值以内,我觉得泡沫不大可以炒一下,超过100亿的时候就要谨慎了。这个号称非洲亚马逊的最大问题就是快递效率会影响增长,快递效率是基于非洲各小国基建道路条件,我也专门看了关于穿越非洲各国的纪录片,从纪录片和抖音上来看,非洲的基建现在还有很多城市市区都没有实现道路硬化。这个股只能往5-10年以后去想象。如果以后一直保持成为非洲最大的电商平台,随着时间推移,基建慢慢完善,居民收入慢慢提升,还是有很大的想象空间的。非州大多数人穷,非洲人大多没有储蓄习惯,人口多,所以购买力其实很强。","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$网上查了一些资料,包括在jmia做卖家的口碑,大概就是这个平台对于卖家管理和罚款比较严格,有很多国内卖家在上面开店,存在很多刷单行为,感觉和初期淘宝差不多,另外卖家普遍反映平台的人工客服服务处理效率很低,跟国内完全没法比。这也正常,想我去年申请一个插件测试资格,发邮件等回复,不行又重申请,折腾下来10天才审核通过,同样的事换在国内最多2天就审核完了。订单量有增涨,但是有刷单行为不好说实际真实单量。它自己的jmia 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