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股市菜鸟007
08-19
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$
就算这些巨头准备自建算力,那这个是一天两天能建好的吗?而且巨头云服务器要自建算力,也要有足够多的GPU,那英伟达会优先供给自己的亲儿子还是供给这些巨头?
股市菜鸟007
08-14
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$
跌就是有人恶意做空,还什么亏损超预期?
股市菜鸟007
08-06
这个分析师的水平太烂了
汽车卖不动,何来AI梦? 特斯拉靠信仰撑起的估值来到“清算时刻”?
股市菜鸟007
07-30
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
Qorvo第一财季盈利与营收超预期
股市菜鸟007
07-07
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特朗普估计很快又要和马斯克和解了
股市菜鸟007
07-03
ujnm0 606956046093363an qnbhjh.hnqqZ
伯克希尔6月30日成交额为3.05亿美元
股市菜鸟007
05-27
$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$
坚决做空,等它能够商业化,估计我都不在了
股市菜鸟007
05-24
$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$
股东逢高减持,量子科技短期看来没戏
股市菜鸟007
05-23
$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$
如果这么看好,为什么股东要减持呢?
股市菜鸟007
05-23
$D-Wave Quantum Inc.(QBTS)$
没看到股东都在减持吗?还涨个毛线
股市菜鸟007
05-07
为什么回购价格可以这么便宜?
阿里巴巴回购62万股 金额999万美元
股市菜鸟007
05-06
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
巴菲特都感到恐惧了,这个跌下来就是这两天的事
股市菜鸟007
04-28
再便宜能便宜过比亚迪?
特斯拉平价车型设计方向曝光,或命名“Model 2”
股市菜鸟007
04-26
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
坐等美帝崩盘,坚持看空
股市菜鸟007
04-25
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
自动驾驶+人形机器人,连实施还有好远
股市菜鸟007
04-25
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
都是华尔街资本家的游戏,等大多数都做空就狂拉,等大多数做多就狂跌。
股市菜鸟007
04-23
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
美帝国主义亡我中华民族之心不死,关税战不可能就这么简单收场的,会有大跌的时候
股市菜鸟007
04-21
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
汽车只是一小部分,还有脑机接口,人形机器人,自动驾驶,人工智能,火星移民,任何一项成功了都足以改变世界
股市菜鸟007
04-12
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
索罗斯在做空特斯拉
股市菜鸟007
04-04
$英伟达(NVDA)$
英伟达有可能是受加税影响最小的,别的国家可以反击不买美国的特斯拉,不买美国的手机,但要发展人工智能,他得需要英伟达的芯片
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a> 就算这些巨头准备自建算力,那这个是一天两天能建好的吗?而且巨头云服务器要自建算力,也要有足够多的GPU,那英伟达会优先供给自己的亲儿子还是供给这些巨头?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a> 就算这些巨头准备自建算力,那这个是一天两天能建好的吗?而且巨头云服务器要自建算力,也要有足够多的GPU,那英伟达会优先供给自己的亲儿子还是供给这些巨头?","text":"$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 就算这些巨头准备自建算力,那这个是一天两天能建好的吗?而且巨头云服务器要自建算力,也要有足够多的GPU,那英伟达会优先供给自己的亲儿子还是供给这些巨头?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/469349701345392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":467382774210600,"gmtCreate":1755124385167,"gmtModify":1755124386624,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a> 跌就是有人恶意做空,还什么亏损超预期?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a> 跌就是有人恶意做空,还什么亏损超预期?","text":"$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 跌就是有人恶意做空,还什么亏损超预期?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467382774210600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464689997852824,"gmtCreate":1754474924239,"gmtModify":1754474926115,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个分析师的水平太烂了","listText":"这个分析师的水平太烂了","text":"这个分析师的水平太烂了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464689997852824","repostId":"1177727156","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177727156","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1754473501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177727156?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-06 17:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"汽车卖不动,何来AI梦? 特斯拉靠信仰撑起的估值来到“清算时刻”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177727156","media":"智通财经网","summary":"仍然是一家单纯的电动汽车制造商。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>来自SeekingAlpha的资深分析师Gytis Zizys近日发布研究报告称,即使马斯克将 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 的Dojo 人工智能超算系统、完全自动驾驶以及Robotaxi和人形机器人应用与市场规模前景吹得天花乱坠,当前的特斯拉本质上仍是一家电动汽车制造商,汽车销售贡献了高达75%的营收,并且AI超算驱动的FSD、Robotaxi等一系列“未来式业务”所带来的业绩贡献非常渺小且创收前景极度模糊。Zizys估值测算显示,哪怕以最乐观的FSD、Robotaxi等预期路径较清晰业务的DCF假设来进行估值,特斯拉股价预期也远远低于当前约310美元交易价格。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f35502b98ddd8ea18cc096ec48c74c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该分析师在研究中强调,特斯拉的汽车业务创造的价值将为未来由特斯拉无比强大的AI超算系统驱动的FSD,以及特斯拉Robotaxi、新型超大规模储能等项目提供无比庞大的资金支持。从美国云计算领军者们的AI支出来看,强大的AI超算系统需要的资金流巨大,这也意味着如果汽车业务持续疲软,以“特斯拉信徒”为主的特斯拉投资者们对于特斯拉未来以及马斯克本人的“未来信仰价值流折现”也将大打折扣。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的分析师预期显示,华尔街分析师们普遍预计谷歌、微软、Facebook母公司Meta以及亚马逊这四大科技巨头今年将在以AI算力基础设施为核心的数据中心扩建或新建上整体支出超3500亿美元——意味着有望在2024年强劲增长基础上同比增长仅50%,预计2026年将超过4500亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在Zizys看来,特斯拉信徒们似乎无视过去,将马斯克的宏伟目标视作真正的未来,即便人工智能超算驱动的FSD与Robotaxi等业务至今所创造的价值占特斯拉营收比重甚至不到10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉未来增长希望同时也是预期路径较清晰的业务——FSD、Robotaxi和超大规模储能,之所以不纳入“擎天柱人形机器人”是因为 Zizys认为该项未来式业务的可见度太模糊且成本高昂。此外,马斯克本人长期以来善于凭空打造出过于夸张的承诺、交付不足的历史使得所有的看涨预测都在一定程度上缺乏可靠性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SeekingAlpha的资深分析师 Zizys表示,即使FSD等创收非常有限的业务采用最乐观的DCF假设以及马斯克给出的乐观指引,特斯拉的内在价值仅为233美元/股,在当前价位下该股对于华尔街投资者而言依旧过于昂贵。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所谓“特斯拉式信徒”——主要在于他们对该科技公司宏大叙事逻辑的执念,即特斯拉信徒们对于特斯拉的储能系统、人形机器人以及FSD完全自动驾驶、Robotaxi前景的长期认可与看涨执念,远大于对传统估值指标的理性关注与判断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期特斯拉业绩表现可谓极度疲弱:2025财年第二季度销售额同比下降12%,销售额与利润均低于华尔街预期,利润率连续多个季度被压缩;汽车业务作为核心板块,营收从去年同期的199亿美元缩减至167亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,特斯拉第二季度交付量不仅在最大市场美国出现同比下滑近10%,在对于特斯拉业绩增长至关重要的欧洲市场,由于欧洲电动汽车市场竞争加剧以及马斯克因干涉欧洲政治导致个人影响力受损,特斯拉在欧洲的市场份额正在被大幅侵蚀,自今年以来销量持续大幅下滑,比如在英国市场份额骤降至仅不到1%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bfe38f85c32afbb0bbc02cb008333f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"381\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>特斯拉——当期以及中期内仍然是一家单纯的电动汽车制造商</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉的业绩继续依赖其汽车销售。该公司十分努力想摆脱“只是车企”的单一定位,却难以逃脱这一笼统归类,因为各项“多头叙事”项目的实际进展较预期屡屡延期。忠实投资者——即特斯拉信徒们,将马斯克的承诺与宏大目标视作既定事实,却忽视其一贯的过度承诺和屡屡未达。即便在相当乐观的DCF估值体系下,该公司估值仍过高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025财年第二季度销售额同比下降 12%,其中欧洲销售表现最差,对公司平淡的营收表现影响最大。欧洲市场份额全年持续下滑,尚未出现任何基本面扭转迹象;其他电动车制造商正在分食特斯拉蛋糕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毛利率大幅降至17.2%,同比下挫71个基点,原因在于销量下降和降价。第二季度的车辆交付量同比意外减少13%,其中 Model 3/Y 交付减少12%,其他奢侈车型下降52%。平均售价下降、折扣增加、激励上升进一步侵蚀了利润率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">柏林超级工厂产能仅仅被低度利用,固定成本摊薄受限,对利润率施压。特朗普政府对于清洁能源的支持力度大幅降温,一定程度上推动监管积分类的销售额同比暴跌逾 50%,加剧了营收疲软。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">整体运营表现持续乏力,欧洲疲软或带来更多下行风险;来自中国的新晋对手们正持续夺取市场份额。随着大众、雷诺甚至法拉利等欧洲老牌汽车制造商们等更多竞争者推出纯EV,监管积分最终将趋于枯竭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此在SeekingAlpha资深分析师Zizys看来,没有汽车,就没有特斯拉存在。任何人都不愿相信的现实:特斯拉首先也是最重要的仍然是汽车制造商。若汽车业务(上一季度占总营收约75%)继续不振,公司就无力为特斯拉AI超算体系、自动驾驶、擎天柱人形机器人和储能等未来项目提供所需最核心现金流以及资本支持。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因马斯克自从助推特朗普再一次登上总统宝座后政治形象受损,销量下滑在欧洲市场尤为明显。很多特斯拉车主不愿再与马斯克的价值观绑定。尽管股价仍享巨额溢价,但是这种溢价并非基于清晰可见的创收预期以及业务增长规划图表,而是主要源于狂热追随者们以及所谓特斯拉信徒们非常相信特斯拉终将成为远超“单纯车企”的存在。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其他业务与其说是重大机遇,不如说存在重大挑战</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zizys在研报中表示,特斯拉式信徒们经常就这些有前景的企业业务创收潜力给出最乐观的预期情况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">FSD订阅:特斯拉顽固的多头们称若仅10%–20%新车主订阅99美元/月套餐,年即增 5.5–15 亿美元。公司未披露明细,难以精准核算,但是年增5.5–15 亿美元,相对于特斯拉汽车业务来说显得微不足道。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Robotaxi:奥斯汀试点进行中,ARK Invest和其他乐观主义者预测到2029年推动特斯拉的企业价值增值逾1万亿美元,并且预计2027年全美投放。但迄今为止Robotax仍在最早期阶段,处于现金流消耗时期。更重要的是,对于Robotaxi而言至关重要的特斯拉FSD无人监督版本仍仅在美国有限的地区进行早期测试。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">超大规模储能系统:2024年是这一细分市场的一个巨大增长年,2024年同比增长67%至100亿美元,2022年曾规划2030年部署 1,500GWh(意味着90%年复合增长率)。根据当前仅仅40GWh半年进度,若保持50%–70%增速,到2030年只能达340–630GWh,仍远远低于马斯克目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>详细盘点“画饼大王”马斯克的“过度承诺”记录</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cybertruck量产原定时间表2021年,现状与延迟:2023 末初产,多次召回,部分功能取消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">FSD 全自动大规模订阅式推广的原定时间表2018-2020年,现状与延迟:2025 仍需驾驶员监督,仅测试区域。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Robotaxi 通过联邦监管且实现全美运营的原定时间表从最早的2020年推迟到2024年,如今全美运营方面更是没了精准的预期时间表。Robotaxi的现状与延迟:仅奥斯汀试点,最新宣称年底覆盖半数美国人口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SeekingAlpha的资深分析师 Zizys强调,许多预测特斯拉Robotaxi、人工智能、FSD、人形机器人或者储能业务强劲未来爆炸式利润增长的忠实投资者们都依赖于至少在过去7年里马斯克抛出的最佳预期,而不是特斯拉的历史执行情况。考虑到马斯克一贯执行表现不佳,从表面上看他对业绩增长潜力的评论并不理想。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae1f985c6b89e2fa5760f46da57283c\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b618ad4a161f97bfd9feb130755d95\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"203\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zizys表示,即便特斯拉所有的业务以及包括FSD与拉Robotaxi等“未来式业务”均用马斯克或者Ark等特斯拉多头们所给出“最乐观情形”,特斯拉股价仍被明显高估。折现率使用 WACC 10.8%以及2.5%的终端增长率,Zizys推导出的特斯拉基于DCF模型实际价值仅仅233 美元/股。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>汽车卖不动,何来AI梦? 特斯拉靠信仰撑起的估值来到“清算时刻”?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n汽车卖不动,何来AI梦? 特斯拉靠信仰撑起的估值来到“清算时刻”?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-06 17:45 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1326256.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来自SeekingAlpha的资深分析师Gytis Zizys近日发布研究报告称,即使马斯克将 特斯拉 的Dojo 人工智能超算系统、完全自动驾驶以及Robotaxi和人形机器人应用与市场规模前景吹得天花乱坠,当前的特斯拉本质上仍是一家电动汽车制造商,汽车销售贡献了高达75%的营收,并且AI超算驱动的FSD、Robotaxi等一系列“未来式业务”所带来的业绩贡献非常渺小且创收前景极度模糊。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1326256.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a882b4797947d103c6b7f3b27d6fd868","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1326256.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1177727156","content_text":"来自SeekingAlpha的资深分析师Gytis Zizys近日发布研究报告称,即使马斯克将 特斯拉 的Dojo 人工智能超算系统、完全自动驾驶以及Robotaxi和人形机器人应用与市场规模前景吹得天花乱坠,当前的特斯拉本质上仍是一家电动汽车制造商,汽车销售贡献了高达75%的营收,并且AI超算驱动的FSD、Robotaxi等一系列“未来式业务”所带来的业绩贡献非常渺小且创收前景极度模糊。Zizys估值测算显示,哪怕以最乐观的FSD、Robotaxi等预期路径较清晰业务的DCF假设来进行估值,特斯拉股价预期也远远低于当前约310美元交易价格。该分析师在研究中强调,特斯拉的汽车业务创造的价值将为未来由特斯拉无比强大的AI超算系统驱动的FSD,以及特斯拉Robotaxi、新型超大规模储能等项目提供无比庞大的资金支持。从美国云计算领军者们的AI支出来看,强大的AI超算系统需要的资金流巨大,这也意味着如果汽车业务持续疲软,以“特斯拉信徒”为主的特斯拉投资者们对于特斯拉未来以及马斯克本人的“未来信仰价值流折现”也将大打折扣。Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的分析师预期显示,华尔街分析师们普遍预计谷歌、微软、Facebook母公司Meta以及亚马逊这四大科技巨头今年将在以AI算力基础设施为核心的数据中心扩建或新建上整体支出超3500亿美元——意味着有望在2024年强劲增长基础上同比增长仅50%,预计2026年将超过4500亿美元。在Zizys看来,特斯拉信徒们似乎无视过去,将马斯克的宏伟目标视作真正的未来,即便人工智能超算驱动的FSD与Robotaxi等业务至今所创造的价值占特斯拉营收比重甚至不到10%。特斯拉未来增长希望同时也是预期路径较清晰的业务——FSD、Robotaxi和超大规模储能,之所以不纳入“擎天柱人形机器人”是因为 Zizys认为该项未来式业务的可见度太模糊且成本高昂。此外,马斯克本人长期以来善于凭空打造出过于夸张的承诺、交付不足的历史使得所有的看涨预测都在一定程度上缺乏可靠性。SeekingAlpha的资深分析师 Zizys表示,即使FSD等创收非常有限的业务采用最乐观的DCF假设以及马斯克给出的乐观指引,特斯拉的内在价值仅为233美元/股,在当前价位下该股对于华尔街投资者而言依旧过于昂贵。所谓“特斯拉式信徒”——主要在于他们对该科技公司宏大叙事逻辑的执念,即特斯拉信徒们对于特斯拉的储能系统、人形机器人以及FSD完全自动驾驶、Robotaxi前景的长期认可与看涨执念,远大于对传统估值指标的理性关注与判断。近期特斯拉业绩表现可谓极度疲弱:2025财年第二季度销售额同比下降12%,销售额与利润均低于华尔街预期,利润率连续多个季度被压缩;汽车业务作为核心板块,营收从去年同期的199亿美元缩减至167亿美元。此外,特斯拉第二季度交付量不仅在最大市场美国出现同比下滑近10%,在对于特斯拉业绩增长至关重要的欧洲市场,由于欧洲电动汽车市场竞争加剧以及马斯克因干涉欧洲政治导致个人影响力受损,特斯拉在欧洲的市场份额正在被大幅侵蚀,自今年以来销量持续大幅下滑,比如在英国市场份额骤降至仅不到1%。特斯拉——当期以及中期内仍然是一家单纯的电动汽车制造商特斯拉的业绩继续依赖其汽车销售。该公司十分努力想摆脱“只是车企”的单一定位,却难以逃脱这一笼统归类,因为各项“多头叙事”项目的实际进展较预期屡屡延期。忠实投资者——即特斯拉信徒们,将马斯克的承诺与宏大目标视作既定事实,却忽视其一贯的过度承诺和屡屡未达。即便在相当乐观的DCF估值体系下,该公司估值仍过高。2025财年第二季度销售额同比下降 12%,其中欧洲销售表现最差,对公司平淡的营收表现影响最大。欧洲市场份额全年持续下滑,尚未出现任何基本面扭转迹象;其他电动车制造商正在分食特斯拉蛋糕。毛利率大幅降至17.2%,同比下挫71个基点,原因在于销量下降和降价。第二季度的车辆交付量同比意外减少13%,其中 Model 3/Y 交付减少12%,其他奢侈车型下降52%。平均售价下降、折扣增加、激励上升进一步侵蚀了利润率。柏林超级工厂产能仅仅被低度利用,固定成本摊薄受限,对利润率施压。特朗普政府对于清洁能源的支持力度大幅降温,一定程度上推动监管积分类的销售额同比暴跌逾 50%,加剧了营收疲软。整体运营表现持续乏力,欧洲疲软或带来更多下行风险;来自中国的新晋对手们正持续夺取市场份额。随着大众、雷诺甚至法拉利等欧洲老牌汽车制造商们等更多竞争者推出纯EV,监管积分最终将趋于枯竭。因此在SeekingAlpha资深分析师Zizys看来,没有汽车,就没有特斯拉存在。任何人都不愿相信的现实:特斯拉首先也是最重要的仍然是汽车制造商。若汽车业务(上一季度占总营收约75%)继续不振,公司就无力为特斯拉AI超算体系、自动驾驶、擎天柱人形机器人和储能等未来项目提供所需最核心现金流以及资本支持。因马斯克自从助推特朗普再一次登上总统宝座后政治形象受损,销量下滑在欧洲市场尤为明显。很多特斯拉车主不愿再与马斯克的价值观绑定。尽管股价仍享巨额溢价,但是这种溢价并非基于清晰可见的创收预期以及业务增长规划图表,而是主要源于狂热追随者们以及所谓特斯拉信徒们非常相信特斯拉终将成为远超“单纯车企”的存在。其他业务与其说是重大机遇,不如说存在重大挑战Zizys在研报中表示,特斯拉式信徒们经常就这些有前景的企业业务创收潜力给出最乐观的预期情况。FSD订阅:特斯拉顽固的多头们称若仅10%–20%新车主订阅99美元/月套餐,年即增 5.5–15 亿美元。公司未披露明细,难以精准核算,但是年增5.5–15 亿美元,相对于特斯拉汽车业务来说显得微不足道。Robotaxi:奥斯汀试点进行中,ARK Invest和其他乐观主义者预测到2029年推动特斯拉的企业价值增值逾1万亿美元,并且预计2027年全美投放。但迄今为止Robotax仍在最早期阶段,处于现金流消耗时期。更重要的是,对于Robotaxi而言至关重要的特斯拉FSD无人监督版本仍仅在美国有限的地区进行早期测试。超大规模储能系统:2024年是这一细分市场的一个巨大增长年,2024年同比增长67%至100亿美元,2022年曾规划2030年部署 1,500GWh(意味着90%年复合增长率)。根据当前仅仅40GWh半年进度,若保持50%–70%增速,到2030年只能达340–630GWh,仍远远低于马斯克目标。详细盘点“画饼大王”马斯克的“过度承诺”记录Cybertruck量产原定时间表2021年,现状与延迟:2023 末初产,多次召回,部分功能取消。FSD 全自动大规模订阅式推广的原定时间表2018-2020年,现状与延迟:2025 仍需驾驶员监督,仅测试区域。Robotaxi 通过联邦监管且实现全美运营的原定时间表从最早的2020年推迟到2024年,如今全美运营方面更是没了精准的预期时间表。Robotaxi的现状与延迟:仅奥斯汀试点,最新宣称年底覆盖半数美国人口。SeekingAlpha的资深分析师 Zizys强调,许多预测特斯拉Robotaxi、人工智能、FSD、人形机器人或者储能业务强劲未来爆炸式利润增长的忠实投资者们都依赖于至少在过去7年里马斯克抛出的最佳预期,而不是特斯拉的历史执行情况。考虑到马斯克一贯执行表现不佳,从表面上看他对业绩增长潜力的评论并不理想。Zizys表示,即便特斯拉所有的业务以及包括FSD与拉Robotaxi等“未来式业务”均用马斯克或者Ark等特斯拉多头们所给出“最乐观情形”,特斯拉股价仍被明显高估。折现率使用 WACC 10.8%以及2.5%的终端增长率,Zizys推导出的特斯拉基于DCF模型实际价值仅仅233 美元/股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":462162543251664,"gmtCreate":1753851135298,"gmtModify":1753851137002,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/462162543251664","repostId":"1121920487","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121920487","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1753832399,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121920487?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-30 07:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Qorvo第一财季盈利与营收超预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121920487","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"$Qorvo, Inc.$ 盘后飙10%,此前该公司报告的2026财年第一季度盈利显著超出分析师预期,这得益于广泛的需求和提高的盈利能力。营收为8.188亿美元,同样超过了7.763亿美元的共识预期,尽管同比下降7.7%。Qorvo总裁兼首席执行官Bob Bruggeworth表示:\"Qorvo团队在2026财年第一季度表现强劲。\"对于第二季度,Qorvo预计营收约为10.25亿美元,调整后每股收益为2.00美元。公司还预计非通用会计准则毛利率将提高至48%至50%之间,这将比去年同期提高200个基点。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QRVO\">Qorvo, Inc.</a> (QRVO) 盘后飙10%,此前该公司报告的2026财年第一季度盈利显著超出分析师预期,这得益于广泛的需求和提高的盈利能力。</p><p>该公司报告截至2025年6月28日的季度调整后每股收益为0.92美元,超过分析师共识的0.63美元。营收为8.188亿美元,同样超过了7.763亿美元的共识预期,尽管同比下降7.7%(去年同期为8.867亿美元)。</p><p>Qorvo总裁兼首席执行官Bob Bruggeworth表示:"Qorvo团队在2026财年第一季度表现强劲。我们正在实施一系列广泛的举措,以从结构上提高盈利能力,我们已经看到这些战略行动的积极效果。"</p><p>对于第二季度,Qorvo预计营收约为10.25亿美元(上下浮动5000万美元),调整后每股收益为2.00美元(上下浮动0.25美元)。公司还预计非通用会计准则毛利率将提高至48%至50%之间,这将比去年同期提高200个基点。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qorvo第一财季盈利与营收超预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQorvo第一财季盈利与营收超预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-30 07:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QRVO\">Qorvo, Inc.</a> (QRVO) 盘后飙10%,此前该公司报告的2026财年第一季度盈利显著超出分析师预期,这得益于广泛的需求和提高的盈利能力。</p><p>该公司报告截至2025年6月28日的季度调整后每股收益为0.92美元,超过分析师共识的0.63美元。营收为8.188亿美元,同样超过了7.763亿美元的共识预期,尽管同比下降7.7%(去年同期为8.867亿美元)。</p><p>Qorvo总裁兼首席执行官Bob Bruggeworth表示:"Qorvo团队在2026财年第一季度表现强劲。我们正在实施一系列广泛的举措,以从结构上提高盈利能力,我们已经看到这些战略行动的积极效果。"</p><p>对于第二季度,Qorvo预计营收约为10.25亿美元(上下浮动5000万美元),调整后每股收益为2.00美元(上下浮动0.25美元)。公司还预计非通用会计准则毛利率将提高至48%至50%之间,这将比去年同期提高200个基点。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/641859891c7b8b8ca2fc9af0993447e8","relate_stocks":{"QRVO":"Qorvo, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121920487","content_text":"Qorvo, Inc. (QRVO) 盘后飙10%,此前该公司报告的2026财年第一季度盈利显著超出分析师预期,这得益于广泛的需求和提高的盈利能力。该公司报告截至2025年6月28日的季度调整后每股收益为0.92美元,超过分析师共识的0.63美元。营收为8.188亿美元,同样超过了7.763亿美元的共识预期,尽管同比下降7.7%(去年同期为8.867亿美元)。Qorvo总裁兼首席执行官Bob Bruggeworth表示:\"Qorvo团队在2026财年第一季度表现强劲。我们正在实施一系列广泛的举措,以从结构上提高盈利能力,我们已经看到这些战略行动的积极效果。\"对于第二季度,Qorvo预计营收约为10.25亿美元(上下浮动5000万美元),调整后每股收益为2.00美元(上下浮动0.25美元)。公司还预计非通用会计准则毛利率将提高至48%至50%之间,这将比去年同期提高200个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QRVO":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":454121639539600,"gmtCreate":1751900655486,"gmtModify":1751901803519,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 特朗普估计很快又要和马斯克和解了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 特朗普估计很快又要和马斯克和解了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特朗普估计很快又要和马斯克和解了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/454121639539600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":452570984432200,"gmtCreate":1751514734875,"gmtModify":1751514736531,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ujnm0 606956046093363an qnbhjh.hnqqZ","listText":"ujnm0 606956046093363an qnbhjh.hnqqZ","text":"ujnm0 606956046093363an qnbhjh.hnqqZ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/452570984432200","repostId":"2548040526","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2548040526","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1751332959,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2548040526?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-01 09:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伯克希尔6月30日成交额为3.05亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2548040526","media":"市场透视","summary":"美东时间2025年6月30日,伯克希尔成交额为3.05亿美元,成交额较昨日增加1.84%,当日成交量为419.00股。伯克希尔于2025年6月30日跌0.29%,报728800.0美元,该股过去5个交易日跌0.5%,年初至今涨7.03%,过去60日跌9.65%。|近5个交易日成交情况||||#|日期|成交额(美元)|成交额较昨日变化|成交量(股)|#|2025-06-30|3.05亿|1.84%|419.00|#|2025-06-27|3.00亿|17.07%|410.00|#|2025-06-26|2.56亿|-19.35%|351.00|#|2025-06-25|3.18亿|1.21%|433.00|#|2025-06-24|3.14亿|-9.42%|424.00|伯克希尔·哈撒韦是一家控股公司,旗下拥有广泛的子公司,从事多种不同业务。","content":"<html><body><article><p>美东时间2025年6月30日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>(BRK.A.US)成交额为3.05亿美元,成交额较昨日增加1.84%,当日成交量为419.00股。</p><p>伯克希尔(BRK.A.US)于2025年6月30日跌0.29%,报728800.0美元,该股过去5个交易日跌0.5%,年初至今涨7.03%,过去60日跌9.65%。</p><p>|近5个交易日成交情况||||#|日期|成交额(美元)|成交额较昨日变化|成交量(股)|#|2025-06-30|3.05亿|1.84%|419.00|#|2025-06-27|3.00亿|17.07%|410.00|#|2025-06-26|2.56亿|-19.35%|351.00|#|2025-06-25|3.18亿|1.21%|433.00|#|2025-06-24|3.14亿|-9.42%|424.00|</p><p>伯克希尔·哈撒韦是一家控股公司,旗下拥有广泛的子公司,从事多种不同业务。公司的核心业务是保险,主要通过Geico、伯克希尔哈撒韦再保险集团和伯克希尔哈撒韦主保险集团运营。多年来,伯克希尔利用这些业务以及其他业务产生的超额现金收购了位于圣达菲的北伯灵顿铁路、伯克希尔哈撒韦能源(公用事业和能源分销商)以及构成其制造、服务和零售业务的公司(其中包括伯克希尔最大的五个非保险税前盈利创造者:Precision Castparts、路博润、Clayton Homes、Marmon和IMC/ISCAR)。这家企业集团的独特之处在于它完全以分权的方式运营。</p><p>(以上内容为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>自选股基于公开消息,由程序或算法智能生成,仅作为用户看盘参考,不作为投资建议或交易依据。股市有风险,请谨慎决策。)</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250701092249a4c7b13e&s=b><strong>市场透视</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美东时间2025年6月30日,伯克希尔(BRK.A.US)成交额为3.05亿美元,成交额较昨日增加1.84%,当日成交量为419.00股。伯克希尔(BRK.A.US)于2025年6月30日跌0.29%,报728800.0美元,该股过去5个交易日跌0.5%,年初至今涨7.03%,过去60日跌9.65%。|近5个交易日成交情况||||#|日期|成交额(美元)|成交额较昨日变化|成交量(股)|#|...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250701092249a4c7b13e&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4176":"多领域控股","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250701092249a4c7b13e&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2548040526","content_text":"美东时间2025年6月30日,伯克希尔(BRK.A.US)成交额为3.05亿美元,成交额较昨日增加1.84%,当日成交量为419.00股。伯克希尔(BRK.A.US)于2025年6月30日跌0.29%,报728800.0美元,该股过去5个交易日跌0.5%,年初至今涨7.03%,过去60日跌9.65%。|近5个交易日成交情况||||#|日期|成交额(美元)|成交额较昨日变化|成交量(股)|#|2025-06-30|3.05亿|1.84%|419.00|#|2025-06-27|3.00亿|17.07%|410.00|#|2025-06-26|2.56亿|-19.35%|351.00|#|2025-06-25|3.18亿|1.21%|433.00|#|2025-06-24|3.14亿|-9.42%|424.00|伯克希尔·哈撒韦是一家控股公司,旗下拥有广泛的子公司,从事多种不同业务。公司的核心业务是保险,主要通过Geico、伯克希尔哈撒韦再保险集团和伯克希尔哈撒韦主保险集团运营。多年来,伯克希尔利用这些业务以及其他业务产生的超额现金收购了位于圣达菲的北伯灵顿铁路、伯克希尔哈撒韦能源(公用事业和能源分销商)以及构成其制造、服务和零售业务的公司(其中包括伯克希尔最大的五个非保险税前盈利创造者:Precision Castparts、路博润、Clayton Homes、Marmon和IMC/ISCAR)。这家企业集团的独特之处在于它完全以分权的方式运营。(以上内容为腾讯自选股基于公开消息,由程序或算法智能生成,仅作为用户看盘参考,不作为投资建议或交易依据。股市有风险,请谨慎决策。)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":1,"BRK.B":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":439584995754608,"gmtCreate":1748349290250,"gmtModify":1748349291511,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> 坚决做空,等它能够商业化,估计我都不在了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> 坚决做空,等它能够商业化,估计我都不在了","text":"$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ 坚决做空,等它能够商业化,估计我都不在了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/439584995754608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":438293879668816,"gmtCreate":1748040303632,"gmtModify":1748040305142,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> 股东逢高减持,量子科技短期看来没戏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> 股东逢高减持,量子科技短期看来没戏","text":"$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ 股东逢高减持,量子科技短期看来没戏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/438293879668816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":438160604107064,"gmtCreate":1748008049144,"gmtModify":1748008050440,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> 如果这么看好,为什么股东要减持呢?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> 如果这么看好,为什么股东要减持呢?","text":"$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ 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没看到股东都在减持吗?还涨个毛线","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/438106364658496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":432479018779296,"gmtCreate":1746619126044,"gmtModify":1746619127950,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么回购价格可以这么便宜?","listText":"为什么回购价格可以这么便宜?","text":"为什么回购价格可以这么便宜?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/432479018779296","repostId":"2533863919","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2533863919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1746616223,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2533863919?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-07 19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴回购62万股 金额999万美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2533863919","media":"财中社","summary":"5月7日,阿里巴巴(09988/89988/BABA)发布公告,公司于2025年5月6日在纽约证券交易所回购股份62万股,回购价格在15.94美元至16.21美元之间,合计付出金额999万美元。根据回购授权的决议,公司可回购的股份总数为18.74亿股,已回购股份3.17亿股,占回购授权决议通过时已发行股份的1.69%。","content":"<html><body><article><p>5月7日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>(09988/89988/BABA)发布公告,公司于2025年5月6日在纽约证券交易所<span>回购</span>股份62万股,回购价格在15.94美元至16.21美元之间,合计付出金额999万美元。</p><p>根据回购授权的决议,公司可回购的股份总数为18.74亿股,已回购股份3.17亿股,占回购授权决议通过时已发行股份的1.69%。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴回购62万股 金额999万美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ 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.h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里巴巴回购62万股 金额999万美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-07 19:10 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202505071911159751df56&s=b><strong>财中社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月7日,阿里巴巴(09988/89988/BABA)发布公告,公司于2025年5月6日在纽约证券交易所回购股份62万股,回购价格在15.94美元至16.21美元之间,合计付出金额999万美元。根据回购授权的决议,公司可回购的股份总数为18.74亿股,已回购股份3.17亿股,占回购授权决议通过时已发行股份的1.69%。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202505071911159751df56&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU1051769294.HKD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A6\"(HKDHDG) INC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT4\" (HKD) ACC","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU1008478684.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (HKD) ACC","LU0072462343.USD":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU0797268264.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - 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href=\"https://www.donews.com/news/detail/8/5099530.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cb77442e86f4f35d5f2ed394e8d234","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.donews.com/news/detail/8/5099530.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2530466414","content_text":"在特斯拉2025年第一季度财报电话会议上,汽车工程副总裁拉尔斯·莫拉维透露了即将推出的平价车型的设计理念。新车型将延续特斯拉现有产品线的风格,但价格更加亲民,预计于2025年上半年开始生产。近期,一段来自特斯拉弗里蒙特工厂的无人机航拍视频引发了广泛关注。视频中出现的一辆未完工车辆,可能正是这款平价车型。从画面来看,该车车顶比Model Y略窄,整体造型类似跨界车。另有消息称,这款车型可能命名为“Model 2”或“Model 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根据界面新闻记者从一位与新华三有合作的GPU模组渠道商处了解到,今年开年因为DeepSeek带动了国内算力需求短期内飙升,腾讯、阿里在内的几家头部互联网大厂客户年后追加了H20服务器的大单,将市场需求直接“拉爆了”。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/418286480401024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396135463178728,"gmtCreate":1737735481508,"gmtModify":1737735483144,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> 坚定做空,我就不信量子计算10年内会有任何实质性的商业应用,也不相信机构可以提前10年去布局一支没有商业回报的股票。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> 坚定做空,我就不信量子计算10年内会有任何实质性的商业应用,也不相信机构可以提前10年去布局一支没有商业回报的股票。","text":"$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ 坚定做空,我就不信量子计算10年内会有任何实质性的商业应用,也不相信机构可以提前10年去布局一支没有商业回报的股票。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396135463178728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566290818801808","authorId":"3566290818801808","name":"亿千","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8074aa8994a90800980e41658344389","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566290818801808","authorIdStr":"3566290818801808"},"content":"炒股不是证明自己是对的,是证明自己尊重市场资金选择. 否则你菜得没法说","text":"炒股不是证明自己是对的,是证明自己尊重市场资金选择. 否则你菜得没法说","html":"炒股不是证明自己是对的,是证明自己尊重市场资金选择. 否则你菜得没法说"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":414604817117528,"gmtCreate":1742259287834,"gmtModify":1742268200293,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QUBT\">$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ </a> QUBT这家公司名为quantum computing(量子计算),但实际上与量子计算毫无关系😂。它的营收仅为30万美金,市值却高达10亿😂。 访问公司网站后发现,它提供的产品是一种新型的光学计算机,没有量子纠缠和纠错功能,因此无法达到量子计算的级别。更糟糕的是,这家公司根本没有产品,所有机器都还在实验阶段。大学实验室可能会买来玩玩,但实际用途有限。 仔细观察公司人员,发现没有行业大牛。要知道,从事量子计算至少需要物理博士学历。如果你真的对量子计算感兴趣,建议关注IBM和Google这两家公司。个人更倾向于IBM,因为它早在几年前就提供了客户使用的量子计算平台,可以在云端使用量子计算机。 QUBT今天的成功只能说是因为名字起得好,最终难免破产。购买这只股票的人除了知道名字,估计连量子计算的基本概念都不了解😂。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QUBT\">$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ </a> QUBT这家公司名为quantum computing(量子计算),但实际上与量子计算毫无关系😂。它的营收仅为30万美金,市值却高达10亿😂。 访问公司网站后发现,它提供的产品是一种新型的光学计算机,没有量子纠缠和纠错功能,因此无法达到量子计算的级别。更糟糕的是,这家公司根本没有产品,所有机器都还在实验阶段。大学实验室可能会买来玩玩,但实际用途有限。 仔细观察公司人员,发现没有行业大牛。要知道,从事量子计算至少需要物理博士学历。如果你真的对量子计算感兴趣,建议关注IBM和Google这两家公司。个人更倾向于IBM,因为它早在几年前就提供了客户使用的量子计算平台,可以在云端使用量子计算机。 QUBT今天的成功只能说是因为名字起得好,最终难免破产。购买这只股票的人除了知道名字,估计连量子计算的基本概念都不了解😂。","text":"$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ QUBT这家公司名为quantum computing(量子计算),但实际上与量子计算毫无关系😂。它的营收仅为30万美金,市值却高达10亿😂。 访问公司网站后发现,它提供的产品是一种新型的光学计算机,没有量子纠缠和纠错功能,因此无法达到量子计算的级别。更糟糕的是,这家公司根本没有产品,所有机器都还在实验阶段。大学实验室可能会买来玩玩,但实际用途有限。 仔细观察公司人员,发现没有行业大牛。要知道,从事量子计算至少需要物理博士学历。如果你真的对量子计算感兴趣,建议关注IBM和Google这两家公司。个人更倾向于IBM,因为它早在几年前就提供了客户使用的量子计算平台,可以在云端使用量子计算机。 QUBT今天的成功只能说是因为名字起得好,最终难免破产。购买这只股票的人除了知道名字,估计连量子计算的基本概念都不了解😂。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/414604817117528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4197449915529802","authorId":"4197449915529802","name":"WWAANNGG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7728f525348a810ac8dcbb10ad9032a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4197449915529802","authorIdStr":"4197449915529802"},"content":"牛逼,我觉得你比这个公司的人更了解量子纠缠[开心]","text":"牛逼,我觉得你比这个公司的人更了解量子纠缠[开心]","html":"牛逼,我觉得你比这个公司的人更了解量子纠缠[开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":427139571396824,"gmtCreate":1745249617414,"gmtModify":1745249618986,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 汽车只是一小部分,还有脑机接口,人形机器人,自动驾驶,人工智能,火星移民,任何一项成功了都足以改变世界","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 汽车只是一小部分,还有脑机接口,人形机器人,自动驾驶,人工智能,火星移民,任何一项成功了都足以改变世界","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 汽车只是一小部分,还有脑机接口,人形机器人,自动驾驶,人工智能,火星移民,任何一项成功了都足以改变世界","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/427139571396824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3505994139431061","authorId":"3505994139431061","name":"LinYuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb5f9abc5bd08f8be2e2d5f4d1a7998","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3505994139431061","authorIdStr":"3505994139431061"},"content":"这些画饼是事哪有这么快兑现,经济衰退,当然先避风头","text":"这些画饼是事哪有这么快兑现,经济衰退,当然先避风头","html":"这些画饼是事哪有这么快兑现,经济衰退,当然先避风头"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":420602877346208,"gmtCreate":1743717134296,"gmtModify":1743717135875,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 英伟达有可能是受加税影响最小的,别的国家可以反击不买美国的特斯拉,不买美国的手机,但要发展人工智能,他得需要英伟达的芯片","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 英伟达有可能是受加税影响最小的,别的国家可以反击不买美国的特斯拉,不买美国的手机,但要发展人工智能,他得需要英伟达的芯片","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达有可能是受加税影响最小的,别的国家可以反击不买美国的特斯拉,不买美国的手机,但要发展人工智能,他得需要英伟达的芯片","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/420602877346208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4197616409858172","authorId":"4197616409858172","name":"一杯拿铁1993","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a396b0080bf62fa8dda6940f46600a17","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4197616409858172","authorIdStr":"4197616409858172"},"content":"还可以和CoreWeave, NEBIUS租算力[可爱]","text":"还可以和CoreWeave, NEBIUS租算力[可爱]","html":"还可以和CoreWeave, NEBIUS租算力[可爱]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":469349701345392,"gmtCreate":1755618150270,"gmtModify":1755618151655,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a> 就算这些巨头准备自建算力,那这个是一天两天能建好的吗?而且巨头云服务器要自建算力,也要有足够多的GPU,那英伟达会优先供给自己的亲儿子还是供给这些巨头?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a> 就算这些巨头准备自建算力,那这个是一天两天能建好的吗?而且巨头云服务器要自建算力,也要有足够多的GPU,那英伟达会优先供给自己的亲儿子还是供给这些巨头?","text":"$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 就算这些巨头准备自建算力,那这个是一天两天能建好的吗?而且巨头云服务器要自建算力,也要有足够多的GPU,那英伟达会优先供给自己的亲儿子还是供给这些巨头?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/469349701345392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":414477286634160,"gmtCreate":1742201831270,"gmtModify":1742202327576,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QUBT\">$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ </a> 一个年收入几百万美金的公司估值几个亿,市销率400%多,还涉及虚假宣传,这种公司还能疯涨?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QUBT\">$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ </a> 一个年收入几百万美金的公司估值几个亿,市销率400%多,还涉及虚假宣传,这种公司还能疯涨?","text":"$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ 一个年收入几百万美金的公司估值几个亿,市销率400%多,还涉及虚假宣传,这种公司还能疯涨?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/414477286634160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4108698826195200","authorId":"4108698826195200","name":"Geilbert","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4639bc7588e8988401e175560cd7c145","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4108698826195200","authorIdStr":"4108698826195200"},"content":"美国的财务至少相对真实,不像国内为了造假而造假,他们是没有酒桌,没有熟人文化的科技成果营收","text":"美国的财务至少相对真实,不像国内为了造假而造假,他们是没有酒桌,没有熟人文化的科技成果营收","html":"美国的财务至少相对真实,不像国内为了造假而造假,他们是没有酒桌,没有熟人文化的科技成果营收"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":400147792699776,"gmtCreate":1738714769547,"gmtModify":1738715811983,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCEA\">$Ocean Biomedical(OCEA)$ </a> 未满足的需求和科学突破Ocean专注于促进布朗大学等顶级医疗保健研究机构定期出现的科学突破的临床发展。该公司目前正在推进专利发现,以解决三个未满足医疗需求的关键领域:肿瘤学、肺纤维化和传染病。Ocean团队发现了通过控制CHI3L1(一种主要检查点抑制剂)抑制肿瘤生长的能力,这将改变更广泛的肿瘤学领域。各种纤维化疾病可能容易受到OCF-203途径抑制剂几丁质酶1(Chit1)的影响。最后,Ocean的专有传染病平台开发了新型疟疾疫苗和治疗候选药物。未来,这一平台有可能用于防治结核病和大流行型病毒等传染病。 Ocean Biomedical,Inc.拥有创新的商业模式,可以加速研发大学和医疗中心具有科学吸引力的资产的开发和商业化。利用资金和专业知识,将新的治疗候选从实验室高效地转移到临床,再到世界各地。目前正在开发五项发现,这些发现有可能在肺癌、脑癌症、肺纤维化以及疟疾的预防和治疗方面实现改变生命的结果。 资产包括:•肿瘤学:正在开发几种癌症药物,其基础是发现了调节多种癌症诱导途径的靶点,包括最近发现的抗肿瘤免疫反应主调节器。用于靶向非小细胞肺癌和多形性胶质母细胞瘤,这是一种破坏性的脑癌症。•纤维化:正在开发一种小分子,该小分子在动物模型中显示出有效性和良好的安全性信号。用于治疗多种纤维化疾病,包括特发性肺纤维化(IPF)和Hermansky Pudlak综合征,这是一种罕见的“孤儿病”,没有已知的治疗方法。•传染病:正在加速开发一种独特强大的疟疾疫苗和几种针对新发现途径的疟疾疗法。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCEA\">$Ocean Biomedical(OCEA)$ </a> 未满足的需求和科学突破Ocean专注于促进布朗大学等顶级医疗保健研究机构定期出现的科学突破的临床发展。该公司目前正在推进专利发现,以解决三个未满足医疗需求的关键领域:肿瘤学、肺纤维化和传染病。Ocean团队发现了通过控制CHI3L1(一种主要检查点抑制剂)抑制肿瘤生长的能力,这将改变更广泛的肿瘤学领域。各种纤维化疾病可能容易受到OCF-203途径抑制剂几丁质酶1(Chit1)的影响。最后,Ocean的专有传染病平台开发了新型疟疾疫苗和治疗候选药物。未来,这一平台有可能用于防治结核病和大流行型病毒等传染病。 Ocean Biomedical,Inc.拥有创新的商业模式,可以加速研发大学和医疗中心具有科学吸引力的资产的开发和商业化。利用资金和专业知识,将新的治疗候选从实验室高效地转移到临床,再到世界各地。目前正在开发五项发现,这些发现有可能在肺癌、脑癌症、肺纤维化以及疟疾的预防和治疗方面实现改变生命的结果。 资产包括:•肿瘤学:正在开发几种癌症药物,其基础是发现了调节多种癌症诱导途径的靶点,包括最近发现的抗肿瘤免疫反应主调节器。用于靶向非小细胞肺癌和多形性胶质母细胞瘤,这是一种破坏性的脑癌症。•纤维化:正在开发一种小分子,该小分子在动物模型中显示出有效性和良好的安全性信号。用于治疗多种纤维化疾病,包括特发性肺纤维化(IPF)和Hermansky Pudlak综合征,这是一种罕见的“孤儿病”,没有已知的治疗方法。•传染病:正在加速开发一种独特强大的疟疾疫苗和几种针对新发现途径的疟疾疗法。","text":"$Ocean Biomedical(OCEA)$ 未满足的需求和科学突破Ocean专注于促进布朗大学等顶级医疗保健研究机构定期出现的科学突破的临床发展。该公司目前正在推进专利发现,以解决三个未满足医疗需求的关键领域:肿瘤学、肺纤维化和传染病。Ocean团队发现了通过控制CHI3L1(一种主要检查点抑制剂)抑制肿瘤生长的能力,这将改变更广泛的肿瘤学领域。各种纤维化疾病可能容易受到OCF-203途径抑制剂几丁质酶1(Chit1)的影响。最后,Ocean的专有传染病平台开发了新型疟疾疫苗和治疗候选药物。未来,这一平台有可能用于防治结核病和大流行型病毒等传染病。 Ocean Biomedical,Inc.拥有创新的商业模式,可以加速研发大学和医疗中心具有科学吸引力的资产的开发和商业化。利用资金和专业知识,将新的治疗候选从实验室高效地转移到临床,再到世界各地。目前正在开发五项发现,这些发现有可能在肺癌、脑癌症、肺纤维化以及疟疾的预防和治疗方面实现改变生命的结果。 资产包括:•肿瘤学:正在开发几种癌症药物,其基础是发现了调节多种癌症诱导途径的靶点,包括最近发现的抗肿瘤免疫反应主调节器。用于靶向非小细胞肺癌和多形性胶质母细胞瘤,这是一种破坏性的脑癌症。•纤维化:正在开发一种小分子,该小分子在动物模型中显示出有效性和良好的安全性信号。用于治疗多种纤维化疾病,包括特发性肺纤维化(IPF)和Hermansky Pudlak综合征,这是一种罕见的“孤儿病”,没有已知的治疗方法。•传染病:正在加速开发一种独特强大的疟疾疫苗和几种针对新发现途径的疟疾疗法。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/400147792699776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":432067131257160,"gmtCreate":1746460922004,"gmtModify":1746460923775,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a> 巴菲特都感到恐惧了,这个跌下来就是这两天的事","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a> 巴菲特都感到恐惧了,这个跌下来就是这两天的事","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 巴菲特都感到恐惧了,这个跌下来就是这两天的事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/432067131257160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":428332615598976,"gmtCreate":1745604096702,"gmtModify":1745604098222,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 坐等美帝崩盘,坚持看空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 坐等美帝崩盘,坚持看空","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 坐等美帝崩盘,坚持看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/428332615598976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4135341184423600","authorId":"4135341184423600","name":"kasea","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ad72ac8f825be1aa2282fb4a810bf9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4135341184423600","authorIdStr":"4135341184423600"},"content":"美弟不会崩,这次直接超过前高","text":"美弟不会崩,这次直接超过前高","html":"美弟不会崩,这次直接超过前高"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":428285678772496,"gmtCreate":1745592372109,"gmtModify":1745592373805,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 都是华尔街资本家的游戏,等大多数都做空就狂拉,等大多数做多就狂跌。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 都是华尔街资本家的游戏,等大多数都做空就狂拉,等大多数做多就狂跌。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 都是华尔街资本家的游戏,等大多数都做空就狂拉,等大多数做多就狂跌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/428285678772496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464689997852824,"gmtCreate":1754474924239,"gmtModify":1754474926115,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个分析师的水平太烂了","listText":"这个分析师的水平太烂了","text":"这个分析师的水平太烂了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464689997852824","repostId":"1177727156","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177727156","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1754473501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177727156?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-06 17:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"汽车卖不动,何来AI梦? 特斯拉靠信仰撑起的估值来到“清算时刻”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177727156","media":"智通财经网","summary":"仍然是一家单纯的电动汽车制造商。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>来自SeekingAlpha的资深分析师Gytis Zizys近日发布研究报告称,即使马斯克将 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 的Dojo 人工智能超算系统、完全自动驾驶以及Robotaxi和人形机器人应用与市场规模前景吹得天花乱坠,当前的特斯拉本质上仍是一家电动汽车制造商,汽车销售贡献了高达75%的营收,并且AI超算驱动的FSD、Robotaxi等一系列“未来式业务”所带来的业绩贡献非常渺小且创收前景极度模糊。Zizys估值测算显示,哪怕以最乐观的FSD、Robotaxi等预期路径较清晰业务的DCF假设来进行估值,特斯拉股价预期也远远低于当前约310美元交易价格。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f35502b98ddd8ea18cc096ec48c74c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该分析师在研究中强调,特斯拉的汽车业务创造的价值将为未来由特斯拉无比强大的AI超算系统驱动的FSD,以及特斯拉Robotaxi、新型超大规模储能等项目提供无比庞大的资金支持。从美国云计算领军者们的AI支出来看,强大的AI超算系统需要的资金流巨大,这也意味着如果汽车业务持续疲软,以“特斯拉信徒”为主的特斯拉投资者们对于特斯拉未来以及马斯克本人的“未来信仰价值流折现”也将大打折扣。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的分析师预期显示,华尔街分析师们普遍预计谷歌、微软、Facebook母公司Meta以及亚马逊这四大科技巨头今年将在以AI算力基础设施为核心的数据中心扩建或新建上整体支出超3500亿美元——意味着有望在2024年强劲增长基础上同比增长仅50%,预计2026年将超过4500亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在Zizys看来,特斯拉信徒们似乎无视过去,将马斯克的宏伟目标视作真正的未来,即便人工智能超算驱动的FSD与Robotaxi等业务至今所创造的价值占特斯拉营收比重甚至不到10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉未来增长希望同时也是预期路径较清晰的业务——FSD、Robotaxi和超大规模储能,之所以不纳入“擎天柱人形机器人”是因为 Zizys认为该项未来式业务的可见度太模糊且成本高昂。此外,马斯克本人长期以来善于凭空打造出过于夸张的承诺、交付不足的历史使得所有的看涨预测都在一定程度上缺乏可靠性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SeekingAlpha的资深分析师 Zizys表示,即使FSD等创收非常有限的业务采用最乐观的DCF假设以及马斯克给出的乐观指引,特斯拉的内在价值仅为233美元/股,在当前价位下该股对于华尔街投资者而言依旧过于昂贵。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所谓“特斯拉式信徒”——主要在于他们对该科技公司宏大叙事逻辑的执念,即特斯拉信徒们对于特斯拉的储能系统、人形机器人以及FSD完全自动驾驶、Robotaxi前景的长期认可与看涨执念,远大于对传统估值指标的理性关注与判断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期特斯拉业绩表现可谓极度疲弱:2025财年第二季度销售额同比下降12%,销售额与利润均低于华尔街预期,利润率连续多个季度被压缩;汽车业务作为核心板块,营收从去年同期的199亿美元缩减至167亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,特斯拉第二季度交付量不仅在最大市场美国出现同比下滑近10%,在对于特斯拉业绩增长至关重要的欧洲市场,由于欧洲电动汽车市场竞争加剧以及马斯克因干涉欧洲政治导致个人影响力受损,特斯拉在欧洲的市场份额正在被大幅侵蚀,自今年以来销量持续大幅下滑,比如在英国市场份额骤降至仅不到1%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bfe38f85c32afbb0bbc02cb008333f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"381\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>特斯拉——当期以及中期内仍然是一家单纯的电动汽车制造商</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉的业绩继续依赖其汽车销售。该公司十分努力想摆脱“只是车企”的单一定位,却难以逃脱这一笼统归类,因为各项“多头叙事”项目的实际进展较预期屡屡延期。忠实投资者——即特斯拉信徒们,将马斯克的承诺与宏大目标视作既定事实,却忽视其一贯的过度承诺和屡屡未达。即便在相当乐观的DCF估值体系下,该公司估值仍过高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025财年第二季度销售额同比下降 12%,其中欧洲销售表现最差,对公司平淡的营收表现影响最大。欧洲市场份额全年持续下滑,尚未出现任何基本面扭转迹象;其他电动车制造商正在分食特斯拉蛋糕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毛利率大幅降至17.2%,同比下挫71个基点,原因在于销量下降和降价。第二季度的车辆交付量同比意外减少13%,其中 Model 3/Y 交付减少12%,其他奢侈车型下降52%。平均售价下降、折扣增加、激励上升进一步侵蚀了利润率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">柏林超级工厂产能仅仅被低度利用,固定成本摊薄受限,对利润率施压。特朗普政府对于清洁能源的支持力度大幅降温,一定程度上推动监管积分类的销售额同比暴跌逾 50%,加剧了营收疲软。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">整体运营表现持续乏力,欧洲疲软或带来更多下行风险;来自中国的新晋对手们正持续夺取市场份额。随着大众、雷诺甚至法拉利等欧洲老牌汽车制造商们等更多竞争者推出纯EV,监管积分最终将趋于枯竭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此在SeekingAlpha资深分析师Zizys看来,没有汽车,就没有特斯拉存在。任何人都不愿相信的现实:特斯拉首先也是最重要的仍然是汽车制造商。若汽车业务(上一季度占总营收约75%)继续不振,公司就无力为特斯拉AI超算体系、自动驾驶、擎天柱人形机器人和储能等未来项目提供所需最核心现金流以及资本支持。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因马斯克自从助推特朗普再一次登上总统宝座后政治形象受损,销量下滑在欧洲市场尤为明显。很多特斯拉车主不愿再与马斯克的价值观绑定。尽管股价仍享巨额溢价,但是这种溢价并非基于清晰可见的创收预期以及业务增长规划图表,而是主要源于狂热追随者们以及所谓特斯拉信徒们非常相信特斯拉终将成为远超“单纯车企”的存在。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其他业务与其说是重大机遇,不如说存在重大挑战</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zizys在研报中表示,特斯拉式信徒们经常就这些有前景的企业业务创收潜力给出最乐观的预期情况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">FSD订阅:特斯拉顽固的多头们称若仅10%–20%新车主订阅99美元/月套餐,年即增 5.5–15 亿美元。公司未披露明细,难以精准核算,但是年增5.5–15 亿美元,相对于特斯拉汽车业务来说显得微不足道。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Robotaxi:奥斯汀试点进行中,ARK Invest和其他乐观主义者预测到2029年推动特斯拉的企业价值增值逾1万亿美元,并且预计2027年全美投放。但迄今为止Robotax仍在最早期阶段,处于现金流消耗时期。更重要的是,对于Robotaxi而言至关重要的特斯拉FSD无人监督版本仍仅在美国有限的地区进行早期测试。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">超大规模储能系统:2024年是这一细分市场的一个巨大增长年,2024年同比增长67%至100亿美元,2022年曾规划2030年部署 1,500GWh(意味着90%年复合增长率)。根据当前仅仅40GWh半年进度,若保持50%–70%增速,到2030年只能达340–630GWh,仍远远低于马斯克目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>详细盘点“画饼大王”马斯克的“过度承诺”记录</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cybertruck量产原定时间表2021年,现状与延迟:2023 末初产,多次召回,部分功能取消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">FSD 全自动大规模订阅式推广的原定时间表2018-2020年,现状与延迟:2025 仍需驾驶员监督,仅测试区域。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Robotaxi 通过联邦监管且实现全美运营的原定时间表从最早的2020年推迟到2024年,如今全美运营方面更是没了精准的预期时间表。Robotaxi的现状与延迟:仅奥斯汀试点,最新宣称年底覆盖半数美国人口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SeekingAlpha的资深分析师 Zizys强调,许多预测特斯拉Robotaxi、人工智能、FSD、人形机器人或者储能业务强劲未来爆炸式利润增长的忠实投资者们都依赖于至少在过去7年里马斯克抛出的最佳预期,而不是特斯拉的历史执行情况。考虑到马斯克一贯执行表现不佳,从表面上看他对业绩增长潜力的评论并不理想。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae1f985c6b89e2fa5760f46da57283c\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b618ad4a161f97bfd9feb130755d95\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"203\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zizys表示,即便特斯拉所有的业务以及包括FSD与拉Robotaxi等“未来式业务”均用马斯克或者Ark等特斯拉多头们所给出“最乐观情形”,特斯拉股价仍被明显高估。折现率使用 WACC 10.8%以及2.5%的终端增长率,Zizys推导出的特斯拉基于DCF模型实际价值仅仅233 美元/股。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>汽车卖不动,何来AI梦? 特斯拉靠信仰撑起的估值来到“清算时刻”?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n汽车卖不动,何来AI梦? 特斯拉靠信仰撑起的估值来到“清算时刻”?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-06 17:45 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1326256.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来自SeekingAlpha的资深分析师Gytis Zizys近日发布研究报告称,即使马斯克将 特斯拉 的Dojo 人工智能超算系统、完全自动驾驶以及Robotaxi和人形机器人应用与市场规模前景吹得天花乱坠,当前的特斯拉本质上仍是一家电动汽车制造商,汽车销售贡献了高达75%的营收,并且AI超算驱动的FSD、Robotaxi等一系列“未来式业务”所带来的业绩贡献非常渺小且创收前景极度模糊。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1326256.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a882b4797947d103c6b7f3b27d6fd868","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1326256.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1177727156","content_text":"来自SeekingAlpha的资深分析师Gytis Zizys近日发布研究报告称,即使马斯克将 特斯拉 的Dojo 人工智能超算系统、完全自动驾驶以及Robotaxi和人形机器人应用与市场规模前景吹得天花乱坠,当前的特斯拉本质上仍是一家电动汽车制造商,汽车销售贡献了高达75%的营收,并且AI超算驱动的FSD、Robotaxi等一系列“未来式业务”所带来的业绩贡献非常渺小且创收前景极度模糊。Zizys估值测算显示,哪怕以最乐观的FSD、Robotaxi等预期路径较清晰业务的DCF假设来进行估值,特斯拉股价预期也远远低于当前约310美元交易价格。该分析师在研究中强调,特斯拉的汽车业务创造的价值将为未来由特斯拉无比强大的AI超算系统驱动的FSD,以及特斯拉Robotaxi、新型超大规模储能等项目提供无比庞大的资金支持。从美国云计算领军者们的AI支出来看,强大的AI超算系统需要的资金流巨大,这也意味着如果汽车业务持续疲软,以“特斯拉信徒”为主的特斯拉投资者们对于特斯拉未来以及马斯克本人的“未来信仰价值流折现”也将大打折扣。Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的分析师预期显示,华尔街分析师们普遍预计谷歌、微软、Facebook母公司Meta以及亚马逊这四大科技巨头今年将在以AI算力基础设施为核心的数据中心扩建或新建上整体支出超3500亿美元——意味着有望在2024年强劲增长基础上同比增长仅50%,预计2026年将超过4500亿美元。在Zizys看来,特斯拉信徒们似乎无视过去,将马斯克的宏伟目标视作真正的未来,即便人工智能超算驱动的FSD与Robotaxi等业务至今所创造的价值占特斯拉营收比重甚至不到10%。特斯拉未来增长希望同时也是预期路径较清晰的业务——FSD、Robotaxi和超大规模储能,之所以不纳入“擎天柱人形机器人”是因为 Zizys认为该项未来式业务的可见度太模糊且成本高昂。此外,马斯克本人长期以来善于凭空打造出过于夸张的承诺、交付不足的历史使得所有的看涨预测都在一定程度上缺乏可靠性。SeekingAlpha的资深分析师 Zizys表示,即使FSD等创收非常有限的业务采用最乐观的DCF假设以及马斯克给出的乐观指引,特斯拉的内在价值仅为233美元/股,在当前价位下该股对于华尔街投资者而言依旧过于昂贵。所谓“特斯拉式信徒”——主要在于他们对该科技公司宏大叙事逻辑的执念,即特斯拉信徒们对于特斯拉的储能系统、人形机器人以及FSD完全自动驾驶、Robotaxi前景的长期认可与看涨执念,远大于对传统估值指标的理性关注与判断。近期特斯拉业绩表现可谓极度疲弱:2025财年第二季度销售额同比下降12%,销售额与利润均低于华尔街预期,利润率连续多个季度被压缩;汽车业务作为核心板块,营收从去年同期的199亿美元缩减至167亿美元。此外,特斯拉第二季度交付量不仅在最大市场美国出现同比下滑近10%,在对于特斯拉业绩增长至关重要的欧洲市场,由于欧洲电动汽车市场竞争加剧以及马斯克因干涉欧洲政治导致个人影响力受损,特斯拉在欧洲的市场份额正在被大幅侵蚀,自今年以来销量持续大幅下滑,比如在英国市场份额骤降至仅不到1%。特斯拉——当期以及中期内仍然是一家单纯的电动汽车制造商特斯拉的业绩继续依赖其汽车销售。该公司十分努力想摆脱“只是车企”的单一定位,却难以逃脱这一笼统归类,因为各项“多头叙事”项目的实际进展较预期屡屡延期。忠实投资者——即特斯拉信徒们,将马斯克的承诺与宏大目标视作既定事实,却忽视其一贯的过度承诺和屡屡未达。即便在相当乐观的DCF估值体系下,该公司估值仍过高。2025财年第二季度销售额同比下降 12%,其中欧洲销售表现最差,对公司平淡的营收表现影响最大。欧洲市场份额全年持续下滑,尚未出现任何基本面扭转迹象;其他电动车制造商正在分食特斯拉蛋糕。毛利率大幅降至17.2%,同比下挫71个基点,原因在于销量下降和降价。第二季度的车辆交付量同比意外减少13%,其中 Model 3/Y 交付减少12%,其他奢侈车型下降52%。平均售价下降、折扣增加、激励上升进一步侵蚀了利润率。柏林超级工厂产能仅仅被低度利用,固定成本摊薄受限,对利润率施压。特朗普政府对于清洁能源的支持力度大幅降温,一定程度上推动监管积分类的销售额同比暴跌逾 50%,加剧了营收疲软。整体运营表现持续乏力,欧洲疲软或带来更多下行风险;来自中国的新晋对手们正持续夺取市场份额。随着大众、雷诺甚至法拉利等欧洲老牌汽车制造商们等更多竞争者推出纯EV,监管积分最终将趋于枯竭。因此在SeekingAlpha资深分析师Zizys看来,没有汽车,就没有特斯拉存在。任何人都不愿相信的现实:特斯拉首先也是最重要的仍然是汽车制造商。若汽车业务(上一季度占总营收约75%)继续不振,公司就无力为特斯拉AI超算体系、自动驾驶、擎天柱人形机器人和储能等未来项目提供所需最核心现金流以及资本支持。因马斯克自从助推特朗普再一次登上总统宝座后政治形象受损,销量下滑在欧洲市场尤为明显。很多特斯拉车主不愿再与马斯克的价值观绑定。尽管股价仍享巨额溢价,但是这种溢价并非基于清晰可见的创收预期以及业务增长规划图表,而是主要源于狂热追随者们以及所谓特斯拉信徒们非常相信特斯拉终将成为远超“单纯车企”的存在。其他业务与其说是重大机遇,不如说存在重大挑战Zizys在研报中表示,特斯拉式信徒们经常就这些有前景的企业业务创收潜力给出最乐观的预期情况。FSD订阅:特斯拉顽固的多头们称若仅10%–20%新车主订阅99美元/月套餐,年即增 5.5–15 亿美元。公司未披露明细,难以精准核算,但是年增5.5–15 亿美元,相对于特斯拉汽车业务来说显得微不足道。Robotaxi:奥斯汀试点进行中,ARK Invest和其他乐观主义者预测到2029年推动特斯拉的企业价值增值逾1万亿美元,并且预计2027年全美投放。但迄今为止Robotax仍在最早期阶段,处于现金流消耗时期。更重要的是,对于Robotaxi而言至关重要的特斯拉FSD无人监督版本仍仅在美国有限的地区进行早期测试。超大规模储能系统:2024年是这一细分市场的一个巨大增长年,2024年同比增长67%至100亿美元,2022年曾规划2030年部署 1,500GWh(意味着90%年复合增长率)。根据当前仅仅40GWh半年进度,若保持50%–70%增速,到2030年只能达340–630GWh,仍远远低于马斯克目标。详细盘点“画饼大王”马斯克的“过度承诺”记录Cybertruck量产原定时间表2021年,现状与延迟:2023 末初产,多次召回,部分功能取消。FSD 全自动大规模订阅式推广的原定时间表2018-2020年,现状与延迟:2025 仍需驾驶员监督,仅测试区域。Robotaxi 通过联邦监管且实现全美运营的原定时间表从最早的2020年推迟到2024年,如今全美运营方面更是没了精准的预期时间表。Robotaxi的现状与延迟:仅奥斯汀试点,最新宣称年底覆盖半数美国人口。SeekingAlpha的资深分析师 Zizys强调,许多预测特斯拉Robotaxi、人工智能、FSD、人形机器人或者储能业务强劲未来爆炸式利润增长的忠实投资者们都依赖于至少在过去7年里马斯克抛出的最佳预期,而不是特斯拉的历史执行情况。考虑到马斯克一贯执行表现不佳,从表面上看他对业绩增长潜力的评论并不理想。Zizys表示,即便特斯拉所有的业务以及包括FSD与拉Robotaxi等“未来式业务”均用马斯克或者Ark等特斯拉多头们所给出“最乐观情形”,特斯拉股价仍被明显高估。折现率使用 WACC 10.8%以及2.5%的终端增长率,Zizys推导出的特斯拉基于DCF模型实际价值仅仅233 美元/股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":415689854485064,"gmtCreate":1742515947735,"gmtModify":1742515949337,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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坑爹啊,连续下跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391215326429224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"content":"割肉了,留下的发财","text":"割肉了,留下的发财","html":"割肉了,留下的发财"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":439584995754608,"gmtCreate":1748349290250,"gmtModify":1748349291511,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> 唉,被套了","text":"$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ 唉,被套了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/402619943956920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198415421252922","authorId":"4198415421252922","name":"小冉在奔跑96","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4198415421252922","authorIdStr":"4198415421252922"},"content":"是的,你多少的成本价呀","text":"是的,你多少的成本价呀","html":"是的,你多少的成本价呀"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395377714196984,"gmtCreate":1737555404026,"gmtModify":1737555435409,"author":{"id":"3499886846926949","authorId":"3499886846926949","name":"股市菜鸟007","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499886846926949","authorIdStr":"3499886846926949"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> IQM联合创始人兼首席执行官Jan Goetz曾在采访中提到:“在过去几年中,量子计算行业取得了长足的进步,然而,与许多其他新兴技术一样,这个行业需要更多投资来推动技术突破,确保为量子计算行业提供足够的资金仍将是一项关键挑战。”客观来讲,这些炒作现象在一定程度上能够提升社会对于量子技术的关注度,拉动投资增长、促进行业发展,但是缺乏或夸大实际成果的盲目炒作依然非常危险。 这种反思并非是泼冷水。为了整个行业的健康发展,应该保持定力,必须重新审视。 在那之前,保持冷静“如果你说距离非常实用的量子计算机问世大概还需要15年时间,那可能估计得偏早了些。如果你说需要30年,那或许又偏晚了。但要是你选择20年的话,我觉得我们很多人都会认可这个说法。” 正如黄仁勋所言,量子技术距离实用化还有相当一段距离,在那之前依然存在很多变数,我们不能盲目乐观。量子领域的探索充满前景,但很多应用还停留在想象的阶段,在技术真正落地之前,投资者和市场参与者都需要保持冷静,不要被一时的股价波动和概念炒作冲昏头脑。 (二)谷歌的突破不代表从根本上解决了目前难题震撼全球的谷歌Willow虽突破了量子纠错阈值,在特定问题上展现出超越传统超算的强大算力,但这并不代表从根本上解决了量子计算目前面临的诸多难题——量子纠错道阻且长首先,量子纠错还有很长的一段路要走。谷歌团队仅演示了使用单个逻辑量子比特的纠错功能,在多个逻辑量子比特之间增加交互将带来新的实验挑战。此外,研究人员需要进一步改进他们的物理量子比特,以便扩展到更大的规模。量子计算的稳定性和准确性是其走向实用化的关键,目前这方面的技术还不够成熟,这是整个行业都需要面对的挑战。 工程集成十分困难即便解决了纠错问题,量子计算依然面临着集成","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ </a> IQM联合创始人兼首席执行官Jan Goetz曾在采访中提到:“在过去几年中,量子计算行业取得了长足的进步,然而,与许多其他新兴技术一样,这个行业需要更多投资来推动技术突破,确保为量子计算行业提供足够的资金仍将是一项关键挑战。”客观来讲,这些炒作现象在一定程度上能够提升社会对于量子技术的关注度,拉动投资增长、促进行业发展,但是缺乏或夸大实际成果的盲目炒作依然非常危险。 这种反思并非是泼冷水。为了整个行业的健康发展,应该保持定力,必须重新审视。 在那之前,保持冷静“如果你说距离非常实用的量子计算机问世大概还需要15年时间,那可能估计得偏早了些。如果你说需要30年,那或许又偏晚了。但要是你选择20年的话,我觉得我们很多人都会认可这个说法。” 正如黄仁勋所言,量子技术距离实用化还有相当一段距离,在那之前依然存在很多变数,我们不能盲目乐观。量子领域的探索充满前景,但很多应用还停留在想象的阶段,在技术真正落地之前,投资者和市场参与者都需要保持冷静,不要被一时的股价波动和概念炒作冲昏头脑。 (二)谷歌的突破不代表从根本上解决了目前难题震撼全球的谷歌Willow虽突破了量子纠错阈值,在特定问题上展现出超越传统超算的强大算力,但这并不代表从根本上解决了量子计算目前面临的诸多难题——量子纠错道阻且长首先,量子纠错还有很长的一段路要走。谷歌团队仅演示了使用单个逻辑量子比特的纠错功能,在多个逻辑量子比特之间增加交互将带来新的实验挑战。此外,研究人员需要进一步改进他们的物理量子比特,以便扩展到更大的规模。量子计算的稳定性和准确性是其走向实用化的关键,目前这方面的技术还不够成熟,这是整个行业都需要面对的挑战。 工程集成十分困难即便解决了纠错问题,量子计算依然面临着集成","text":"$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ IQM联合创始人兼首席执行官Jan Goetz曾在采访中提到:“在过去几年中,量子计算行业取得了长足的进步,然而,与许多其他新兴技术一样,这个行业需要更多投资来推动技术突破,确保为量子计算行业提供足够的资金仍将是一项关键挑战。”客观来讲,这些炒作现象在一定程度上能够提升社会对于量子技术的关注度,拉动投资增长、促进行业发展,但是缺乏或夸大实际成果的盲目炒作依然非常危险。 这种反思并非是泼冷水。为了整个行业的健康发展,应该保持定力,必须重新审视。 在那之前,保持冷静“如果你说距离非常实用的量子计算机问世大概还需要15年时间,那可能估计得偏早了些。如果你说需要30年,那或许又偏晚了。但要是你选择20年的话,我觉得我们很多人都会认可这个说法。” 正如黄仁勋所言,量子技术距离实用化还有相当一段距离,在那之前依然存在很多变数,我们不能盲目乐观。量子领域的探索充满前景,但很多应用还停留在想象的阶段,在技术真正落地之前,投资者和市场参与者都需要保持冷静,不要被一时的股价波动和概念炒作冲昏头脑。 (二)谷歌的突破不代表从根本上解决了目前难题震撼全球的谷歌Willow虽突破了量子纠错阈值,在特定问题上展现出超越传统超算的强大算力,但这并不代表从根本上解决了量子计算目前面临的诸多难题——量子纠错道阻且长首先,量子纠错还有很长的一段路要走。谷歌团队仅演示了使用单个逻辑量子比特的纠错功能,在多个逻辑量子比特之间增加交互将带来新的实验挑战。此外,研究人员需要进一步改进他们的物理量子比特,以便扩展到更大的规模。量子计算的稳定性和准确性是其走向实用化的关键,目前这方面的技术还不够成熟,这是整个行业都需要面对的挑战。 工程集成十分困难即便解决了纠错问题,量子计算依然面临着集成","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395377714196984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3565053758179673","authorId":"3565053758179673","name":"薄冰夜行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74e9005a028350a3e2fe42916e3cbaeb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565053758179673","authorIdStr":"3565053758179673"},"content":"理解较深,很客观的评价,这个领域确实还有很长的路要走,就三休中的量子技术,跟人类科技还不是一个时代。","text":"理解较深,很客观的评价,这个领域确实还有很长的路要走,就三休中的量子技术,跟人类科技还不是一个时代。","html":"理解较深,很客观的评价,这个领域确实还有很长的路要走,就三休中的量子技术,跟人类科技还不是一个时代。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}