宝宝呢的个人主页 - 老虎社区

宝宝呢

宝宝呢

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IP属地：广东

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4主题

0勋章

2019-08-15

$BABA 20190816 175.0 CALL(BABA)$财报怎么看，各位大哥大姐[喷血]

2019-08-09

$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$又要溜了吗

2019-07-20

$MU 20190726 43.0 PUT(MU)$ 不慌，26才到期。[得意]

2019-08-12

$JD 20190816 30.0 CALL(JD)$明天会不会掉坑

2019-01-27

开盘做空反弹结束

开盘做空

开盘做空反弹结束

2019-09-19

$Chewy(CHWY)$ 加仓加到肝疼[喷血]

2019-08-09

$MU 20190816 45.0 CALL(MU)$这个期权有没有搞头@翾懋赟没有就撤了

2019-07-30

$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$可以走没@翾懋赟

2019-07-19

$AAPL 20190726 190.0 PUT(AAPL)$ [得意] [得意]

2019-07-18

$AMD 20190726 32.0 PUT(AMD)$ 一点都不怂

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者&nbsp;|&nbsp;赵伟团队 来 源&nbsp;|&nbsp;赵伟宏观探索 报告要点 全球“大放水”之后，会否迎来全球大通胀时代，是明显讨论不足的风险点之一。本文梳理了三条低估的逻辑链，可供参考。 逻辑一：劳动力成本飙升，从源头上推升核心通胀 发达经济体在疫情爆发后的大规模“发钱”，使企业不得不大幅提高工资水平。疫情爆发后，为支持居民部门，以美国为首的发达经济体实施了大规模“发钱”。财政“发钱”提振了居民收入，但同时带来了明显副作用，降低了部分居民的就业意愿。为吸引更多居民就业、缓解用工荒问题，企业不得不大幅提高工资水平。 居民更高的工资水平，意味着经济回归常态过程中，将面临更大的通胀压力。以美国为例，历史数据显示，企业劳动力成本增速领先核心CPI同比变化。随着大幅提高工资水平，美国企业劳动力成本增速目前已升至历史高位的4.1%，远超疫情前的1.5%。趋势走高的核心CPI，将显著推升经济修复过程中的通胀风险。 逻辑二：疫情导致商品供需关系失衡，放大经济修复过程中的涨价压力 发达经济体受益于更充足的疫苗供应等，商品消费需求快速扩张；而新兴经济体疫情频频反弹，商品生产持续受限。疫苗在全球的分配严重不均，发达经济体供应充足、而新兴经济体严重短缺。伴随疫苗大规模推广，发达经济体的商品消费需求快速扩张。相反，新兴经济体因疫苗不足等，疫情反复，商品生产持续受限。 疫情导致的商品供需关系失衡，将放大经济修复过程中的涨价压力。随着需求大幅扩张及供应增长缓慢，铜价已刷新历史新高，玉米、大豆等农产品价格也较前期低点大幅反弹。商品价格的大涨，已经反映在PPI中，如美国3月PPI同比刷新了近10年新高。伴随经济回归常态，上游涨价压力或将向全社会大面积扩散。 逻辑三：拜登力图重塑美国、从追求效率转向追求公平，容易推升长期通胀 党内高度支持及国会大开绿灯下，拜登的基建新政有望落地，后者将直","listText":"作 者&nbsp;|&nbsp;赵伟团队 来 源&nbsp;|&nbsp;赵伟宏观探索 报告要点 全球“大放水”之后，会否迎来全球大通胀时代，是明显讨论不足的风险点之一。本文梳理了三条低估的逻辑链，可供参考。 逻辑一：劳动力成本飙升，从源头上推升核心通胀 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居民更高的工资水平，意味着经济回归常态过程中，将面临更大的通胀压力。以美国为例，历史数据显示，企业劳动力成本增速领先核心CPI同比变化。随着大幅提高工资水平，美国企业劳动力成本增速目前已升至历史高位的4.1%，远超疫情前的1.5%。趋势走高的核心CPI，将显著推升经济修复过程中的通胀风险。 逻辑二：疫情导致商品供需关系失衡，放大经济修复过程中的涨价压力 发达经济体受益于更充足的疫苗供应等，商品消费需求快速扩张；而新兴经济体疫情频频反弹，商品生产持续受限。疫苗在全球的分配严重不均，发达经济体供应充足、而新兴经济体严重短缺。伴随疫苗大规模推广，发达经济体的商品消费需求快速扩张。相反，新兴经济体因疫苗不足等，疫情反复，商品生产持续受限。 疫情导致的商品供需关系失衡，将放大经济修复过程中的涨价压力。随着需求大幅扩张及供应增长缓慢，铜价已刷新历史新高，玉米、大豆等农产品价格也较前期低点大幅反弹。商品价格的大涨，已经反映在PPI中，如美国3月PPI同比刷新了近10年新高。伴随经济回归常态，上游涨价压力或将向全社会大面积扩散。 逻辑三：拜登力图重塑美国、从追求效率转向追求公平，容易推升长期通胀 党内高度支持及国会大开绿灯下，拜登的基建新政有望落地，后者将直","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4459a23dcb074c25be6e2e8e407ad07a","width":"1010","height":"736"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfee8ef0dd064f708cea0b2d656020f4","width":"83","height":"83"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2539499ee05d4d14a4328a5b54929eee","width":"1080","height":"756"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190716648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":36,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348880263,"gmtCreate":1617909303152,"gmtModify":1617909303152,"author":{"id":"3500083784099024","authorId":"3500083784099024","name":"宝宝呢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b8174555a32ce1e1e184b68c3aa23","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500083784099024","idStr":"3500083784099024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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