巴巴特的个人主页 - 老虎社区

巴巴特

想炒中概股短线，就得想庄家所想，想炒美股就得顺大盘而走

IP属地：广东

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2019-01-02

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 庄家又开始了，又要打下来吸筹了

2018-12-28

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 大家小心，庄家在出货了，还不知道是要打下来吸筹还是直接出货，小心一点

2018-12-26

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 今天就精彩了，能判断做庄是吸筹还是打算再拉高出货，今天估计会跳开，拉到14.15附近震荡，能突破的话，到均线也有可能，能到均线那明天就应该高开涨一波了，星期五如果震仓那下礼拜就稳当，如果星期五还拉涨，那就可能是拉高出货了

2019-04-26

$Twitter(TWTR)$ 哇塞，谁这么强势，要拉爆空头吗？$Twitter(TWTR)$

2019-01-03

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 今天的这么一跌，把B站的情绪完全跌成恐慌，庄家也要糟了吧，今晚如果不拉上14.2估计短时间内就拉不上了，庄家多轮筑底都直接被打穿

2020-07-02

$高频电子(FEIM)$60万空票，才500万流通市值，这又可能是逼空的庄股，小心做空

2018-12-21

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 庄家这么辛苦洗的盘，那我大B站估计还真能彪到19块哦

2018-12-20

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ $哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 盘前说了要小心成为第二个趣店，还真灵验了，这波庄洗的厉害，不过BILI的股票还是适合长拿的，现在价钱就合适了，庄也改变不了长期趋势

2018-12-26

$京东(JD)$ 京东频频爆出利好，估计是想借利好出货

2018-12-20

$Pacific Drilling Ltd(PACD)$ 这股还有人买进？厉害啊，有胆量

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Berezin警告，投资者需要为美国经济衰退做准备，随着经济状况恶化，美联储不太可能挽救局面。以下为全文内容。</p><p>如果把一杯温水放在冰箱里，它的温度会逐渐下降。最终水会结冰，从液体变成固体。除了让冰箱里的温度保持在零摄氏度以下，不需要发生任何新的事情就能产生这种“相变”。</p><p>同理的是美联储的紧缩货币政策对经济的影响。随着美联储收紧货币政策，美国经济正在降温，通胀下降和工资增长就是明证。如果美联储放任经济温度持续下降，它就会结冰。</p><p>2022年初，每个失业工人都有两个职位空缺。任何当时失业的人轻而易举就能找到新工作。这阻止了失业率上升。</p><p>如今事情不再那么简单了。职位空缺率已回落至新冠疫情前的水平。那些失去工作的人发现越来越难找到新工作。虽然过去12个月劳动力市场的大量涌入导致失业率上升，但近一半的增长还是是由于失业人数增加。</p><p><strong>劳动力市场疲软将削弱消费者支出。</strong>7月份的个人储蓄率为2.9%，不到2019年的一半。疫情期间的超额储蓄已经耗尽。按通胀调整后计算，收入最低的20%的人的银行存款低于2019年的水平。消费者贷款拖欠率已上升至2010年的水平，那一年的失业率是现在的两倍。</p><p><strong>房地产市场再次出现压力迹象。</strong>住宅建筑商信心在8月份降至今年迄今为止的最低水平。房屋销售疲软。新屋开工和许可已经延期。自今年年初以来，在建住房数量下降了8%以上。</p><p>与过去不同，建筑业的就业人数还没有下降，也许建筑商正在囤积劳动力，但如果住房建设继续疲软，该行业的裁员浪潮将随之而来。</p><p>商业房地产仍然处于低迷状态。写字楼空置率处于历史最高水平，并且仍呈上升趋势。办公楼、公寓、零售和酒店领域的违约率正在攀升。占商业地产贷款大部分的区域性银行将遭受更多损失。</p><p><strong>制造业活动再次放缓。</strong>ISM制造业指数的新订单分项在8月份降至2023年5月以来的最低水平。按实际价值计算，核心资本货物订单在过去两年中一直呈下降趋势。建筑支出得到了《芯片法案》和《通胀削减法案》提供的刺激措施的补贴。虽然绝对值仍然很高，但这一支出已经见顶，并将在未来几个季度下降。</p><p><strong>美联储不太可能挽救局面。</strong>其在2001年1月和2007年9月开始降息仅几个月后，经济就曾陷入衰退。</p><p>市场目前预计美联储将在未来12个月内降息2个百分点以上。只有美联储提供的宽松程度超过市场已经定价的水平，长期债券收益率才会从当前水平大幅下降。这不太可能发生，除非出现经济衰退。</p><p><strong>即使美联储的宽松政策确实超过市场预期，其影响也具有滞后性。</strong>事实上，随着低利率抵押贷款债务的减少，房主支付的平均抵押贷款利率明年几乎肯定会上升，并被高利率抵押贷款所取代。</p><p>在经济衰退的情况下，我们预计<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数（SPX）的远期市盈率将从21倍降至16倍，盈利预期将从当前水平下降10%。</p><p><strong>这将使标普500指数跌至3800点，较当前水平下跌近三分之一。</strong>相比之下，债券可能会表现良好。我们预计<strong>10年期美国国债收益率将在2025年降至3%。</strong>过去两年，投资者看好股票而不是债券是正确的。但现在，是时候翻转剧本了。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>策略师：为经济衰退做好准备，美联储恐无力回天</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=147638&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5596b0c7a5731bf931d7cb480f7ea7fb","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=147638&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2465537656","content_text":"加拿大投资研究公司策略师警告，在经济衰退的情况下，标普500指数将下跌三成。加拿大投资研究公司BCA Research的首席全球策略师Peter Berezin警告，投资者需要为美国经济衰退做准备，随着经济状况恶化，美联储不太可能挽救局面。以下为全文内容。如果把一杯温水放在冰箱里，它的温度会逐渐下降。最终水会结冰，从液体变成固体。除了让冰箱里的温度保持在零摄氏度以下，不需要发生任何新的事情就能产生这种“相变”。同理的是美联储的紧缩货币政策对经济的影响。随着美联储收紧货币政策，美国经济正在降温，通胀下降和工资增长就是明证。如果美联储放任经济温度持续下降，它就会结冰。2022年初，每个失业工人都有两个职位空缺。任何当时失业的人轻而易举就能找到新工作。这阻止了失业率上升。如今事情不再那么简单了。职位空缺率已回落至新冠疫情前的水平。那些失去工作的人发现越来越难找到新工作。虽然过去12个月劳动力市场的大量涌入导致失业率上升，但近一半的增长还是是由于失业人数增加。劳动力市场疲软将削弱消费者支出。7月份的个人储蓄率为2.9%，不到2019年的一半。疫情期间的超额储蓄已经耗尽。按通胀调整后计算，收入最低的20%的人的银行存款低于2019年的水平。消费者贷款拖欠率已上升至2010年的水平，那一年的失业率是现在的两倍。房地产市场再次出现压力迹象。住宅建筑商信心在8月份降至今年迄今为止的最低水平。房屋销售疲软。新屋开工和许可已经延期。自今年年初以来，在建住房数量下降了8%以上。与过去不同，建筑业的就业人数还没有下降，也许建筑商正在囤积劳动力，但如果住房建设继续疲软，该行业的裁员浪潮将随之而来。商业房地产仍然处于低迷状态。写字楼空置率处于历史最高水平，并且仍呈上升趋势。办公楼、公寓、零售和酒店领域的违约率正在攀升。占商业地产贷款大部分的区域性银行将遭受更多损失。制造业活动再次放缓。ISM制造业指数的新订单分项在8月份降至2023年5月以来的最低水平。按实际价值计算，核心资本货物订单在过去两年中一直呈下降趋势。建筑支出得到了《芯片法案》和《通胀削减法案》提供的刺激措施的补贴。虽然绝对值仍然很高，但这一支出已经见顶，并将在未来几个季度下降。美联储不太可能挽救局面。其在2001年1月和2007年9月开始降息仅几个月后，经济就曾陷入衰退。市场目前预计美联储将在未来12个月内降息2个百分点以上。只有美联储提供的宽松程度超过市场已经定价的水平，长期债券收益率才会从当前水平大幅下降。这不太可能发生，除非出现经济衰退。即使美联储的宽松政策确实超过市场预期，其影响也具有滞后性。事实上，随着低利率抵押贷款债务的减少，房主支付的平均抵押贷款利率明年几乎肯定会上升，并被高利率抵押贷款所取代。在经济衰退的情况下，我们预计标普500指数（SPX）的远期市盈率将从21倍降至16倍，盈利预期将从当前水平下降10%。这将使标普500指数跌至3800点，较当前水平下跌近三分之一。相比之下，债券可能会表现良好。我们预计10年期美国国债收益率将在2025年降至3%。过去两年，投资者看好股票而不是债券是正确的。但现在，是时候翻转剧本了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UPRO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326857855697096,"gmtCreate":1720830887354,"gmtModify":1720830889355,"author":{"id":"3506086340129599","authorId":"3506086340129599","name":"巴巴特","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506086340129599","authorIdStr":"3506086340129599"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加到8%？历史上接近7%的最后都破产了","listText":"加到8%？历史上接近7%的最后都破产了","text":"加到8%？历史上接近7%的最后都破产了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326857855697096","repostId":"2451598808","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2451598808","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1720831830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2451598808?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-13 08:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"无视通胀降温！摩根大通CEO戴蒙再度警告通胀和利率可能处于高位","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2451598808","media":"智通财经网","summary":"戴蒙最新表示，美国通胀降温取得了一些进展，但我们面前仍存在多重推动通胀的力量。因此，美国的通胀和利率可能继续高于市场预期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>尽管近期美国通胀出现缓解迹象，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>CEO戴蒙仍坚持其此前观点，周五再次就通胀和利率发出警告。</p><p>周五，摩根大通发布了第二季度财报，戴蒙同时发布声明表示：美国通胀降温取得了一些进展，但我们面前仍存在多重推动通胀的力量：巨额财政赤字、基础设施建设需求、贸易重组和全球再军事化。因此，美国的通胀和利率可能继续高于市场预期。</p><p>戴蒙与许多经济学家一起，对美国债务和赤字的激增发出警告。美国联邦政府在2024财年至今的支出比收入多8550亿美元。2023财年，美国政府的赤字支出为1.7万亿美元。</p><p>这不是戴蒙第一次警告敲打美国未来通胀形势。今年4月时他表示，美国的通胀和利率可能持续高于市场预期，已为美联储最高将利率上调至8%做好了准备。5月底时他表示，美国通胀和利率都会更高，当前价位不会回购公司股票。</p><p>周五美国几家大型银行公布财报，摩根大通是其中表现最好的，股价创下新高，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>、花旗银行股价则下挫。</p><p>本周，美国公布了CPI和PPI两大通胀数据。美国6月CPI环比四年来首次转负，核心CPI同比增速创逾三年新低，但PPI超预期反弹，同比增2.6%，核心PPI同比增3%，均为去年3月来最高，上月PPI数据大幅上修。</p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔本周早些时候表示担心，长期维持过高利率可能会危及经济增长，并暗示只要通胀继续取得进展，降息就可能即将到来。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>无视通胀降温！摩根大通CEO戴蒙再度警告通胀和利率可能处于高位</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1150497.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) 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