魔王K的个人主页 - 老虎社区

魔王K

魔王K

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IP属地：浙江

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2主题

0勋章

2025-07-14

$蔚来-SW(09866)$ 这一波蔚来看涨到多少呀兄弟们

2021-02-10

$AMC院线(AMC)$这个可信度有多高

2019-10-03

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$想说爱你有点难

2025-02-13

$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ 这个软件有办法个单个股票每天的分时图吗比如我想看最近一周每天的分时情况

2022-07-21

‌$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDIY)$‌老虎的环球账户不能交易吗，有谁知道要怎么处理，转综合很麻烦呀

2021-05-26

$AMC院线(AMC)$今晚破20？

2021-03-17

$AMC院线(AMC)$12？15

2021-05-19

$AMC院线(AMC)$今晚跌多少呢

2021-01-28

$游戏驿站(GME)$200给个机会？

2019-06-01

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 17入的

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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比如我想看最近一周每天的分时情况","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/403102016602552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3561852945116914","authorId":"3561852945116914","name":"gagiel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54291f282e185d9f32dca73cc2e0d359","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3561852945116914","idStr":"3561852945116914"},"content":"有的 你回到日k那里 然后长按每一日 会弹出当日分时","text":"有的 你回到日k那里 然后长按每一日 会弹出当日分时","html":"有的 你回到日k那里 然后长按每一日 会弹出当日分时"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338708996534304,"gmtCreate":1723733378647,"gmtModify":1723733486103,"author":{"id":"3510999202679154","authorId":"3510999202679154","name":"魔王K","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ade1b38da306f5a6bcbb862dd60bd06d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3510999202679154","idStr":"3510999202679154"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美帝这网线拔得太及时了，达子我不该空你的","listText":"美帝这网线拔得太及时了，达子我不该空你的","text":"美帝这网线拔得太及时了，达子我不该空你的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0da03f1864422876f4951bf298581f3c","width":"1179","height":"2556"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632e5be9ae0c206d2922bd7163c323fe","width":"1179","height":"2556"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/535f945372b559379ab0eb48560b61c9","width":"1179","height":"2556"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338708996534304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":287945819615336,"gmtCreate":1711328190833,"gmtModify":1711328192444,"author":{"id":"3510999202679154","authorId":"3510999202679154","name":"魔王K","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ade1b38da306f5a6bcbb862dd60bd06d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3510999202679154","idStr":"3510999202679154"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/287945819615336","repostId":"287089553055976","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":287089553055976,"gmtCreate":1711119143251,"gmtModify":1744961064154,"author":{"id":"3479715832819091","authorId":"3479715832819091","name":"NoSpoon没勺儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dc835a024b85f0db1a6841f5ae9c83","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479715832819091","idStr":"3479715832819091"},"themes":[],"title":"复盘与展望：拼多多的股价昨晚发生了什么？","htmlText":"昨晚Q4财报发布，拼多多交出了相当炸裂的成绩单。营收888.81亿同比增长123%，净利润为232.8亿元，同比增长146%；这数据看着真的是赚麻了。 “中概之光”全方位大超华尔街预期，股价在盘前也随之爆拉至最高18%突破了150美元，随后一路回落收盘至3.52%（132.17美元），多空双杀。 在此之前，我对拼多多全年业绩做了预测，预计公司全年营收340亿美元，将非常亮眼；而在研究过程中也更笃定了拼多多的卓越。像以往一样，额外的利润我偶尔会做一些备兑（covered call）在高位对冲、short put低位拿票策略、或者一些做多iv的策略。也拿了部分仓位做了远端和近期的long OTM call释放自己的赌性，关于这个话题以后我们也可以展开说说。最终公司披露2023年全年营收2476.39亿元，跟预测只差个位数。（客观来说，不鼓励任何非专业投资人进行期权等衍生品的交易，这类产品多是零和博弈，没有明显比较优势的玩家大概率会出局。） 回到正题：伴随业绩发布会，一切似乎都按剧本进行着，盘前最高到18个点。随后的事情大家都看见了，3分钟内巨量的持续不断的抛售甚至一直到转灯。也算是经历了不少事儿，亲历这样的巨幅震荡，内心没有波澜是假的。人都是厌恶损失的，尤其是得到了再失去。 结局就是：在高位获利了结了部分仓位。整体持仓仍然伴随当日涨幅赚钱，但是裸多期权亏的底裤没有。 这一天的市场波动以及带给我的情绪波动让我再一次很好审视了自己以及投资这回事儿： 任何事情要考虑extreme case，风险的边际是投资的底线，而不是利润。保住利润，让自己活得久一点。 这次的墓碑事件确实是比较罕见，但是你活的足够久就一定会常常经历。活得久就要考虑怎么样玩一个无限游戏；那就要尽量离零和博弈远一些。这个世界上没有确定性的事，如果不能经历遍历性，事情发生的概率就没有意义。 德州扑克输钱最大的是什么时候？","listText":"昨晚Q4财报发布，拼多多交出了相当炸裂的成绩单。营收888.81亿同比增长123%，净利润为232.8亿元，同比增长146%；这数据看着真的是赚麻了。 “中概之光”全方位大超华尔街预期，股价在盘前也随之爆拉至最高18%突破了150美元，随后一路回落收盘至3.52%（132.17美元），多空双杀。 在此之前，我对拼多多全年业绩做了预测，预计公司全年营收340亿美元，将非常亮眼；而在研究过程中也更笃定了拼多多的卓越。像以往一样，额外的利润我偶尔会做一些备兑（covered call）在高位对冲、short put低位拿票策略、或者一些做多iv的策略。也拿了部分仓位做了远端和近期的long OTM call释放自己的赌性，关于这个话题以后我们也可以展开说说。最终公司披露2023年全年营收2476.39亿元，跟预测只差个位数。（客观来说，不鼓励任何非专业投资人进行期权等衍生品的交易，这类产品多是零和博弈，没有明显比较优势的玩家大概率会出局。） 回到正题：伴随业绩发布会，一切似乎都按剧本进行着，盘前最高到18个点。随后的事情大家都看见了，3分钟内巨量的持续不断的抛售甚至一直到转灯。也算是经历了不少事儿，亲历这样的巨幅震荡，内心没有波澜是假的。人都是厌恶损失的，尤其是得到了再失去。 结局就是：在高位获利了结了部分仓位。整体持仓仍然伴随当日涨幅赚钱，但是裸多期权亏的底裤没有。 这一天的市场波动以及带给我的情绪波动让我再一次很好审视了自己以及投资这回事儿： 任何事情要考虑extreme case，风险的边际是投资的底线，而不是利润。保住利润，让自己活得久一点。 这次的墓碑事件确实是比较罕见，但是你活的足够久就一定会常常经历。活得久就要考虑怎么样玩一个无限游戏；那就要尽量离零和博弈远一些。这个世界上没有确定性的事，如果不能经历遍历性，事情发生的概率就没有意义。 德州扑克输钱最大的是什么时候？","text":"昨晚Q4财报发布，拼多多交出了相当炸裂的成绩单。营收888.81亿同比增长123%，净利润为232.8亿元，同比增长146%；这数据看着真的是赚麻了。 “中概之光”全方位大超华尔街预期，股价在盘前也随之爆拉至最高18%突破了150美元，随后一路回落收盘至3.52%（132.17美元），多空双杀。 在此之前，我对拼多多全年业绩做了预测，预计公司全年营收340亿美元，将非常亮眼；而在研究过程中也更笃定了拼多多的卓越。像以往一样，额外的利润我偶尔会做一些备兑（covered call）在高位对冲、short put低位拿票策略、或者一些做多iv的策略。也拿了部分仓位做了远端和近期的long OTM call释放自己的赌性，关于这个话题以后我们也可以展开说说。最终公司披露2023年全年营收2476.39亿元，跟预测只差个位数。（客观来说，不鼓励任何非专业投资人进行期权等衍生品的交易，这类产品多是零和博弈，没有明显比较优势的玩家大概率会出局。） 回到正题：伴随业绩发布会，一切似乎都按剧本进行着，盘前最高到18个点。随后的事情大家都看见了，3分钟内巨量的持续不断的抛售甚至一直到转灯。也算是经历了不少事儿，亲历这样的巨幅震荡，内心没有波澜是假的。人都是厌恶损失的，尤其是得到了再失去。 结局就是：在高位获利了结了部分仓位。整体持仓仍然伴随当日涨幅赚钱，但是裸多期权亏的底裤没有。 这一天的市场波动以及带给我的情绪波动让我再一次很好审视了自己以及投资这回事儿： 任何事情要考虑extreme case，风险的边际是投资的底线，而不是利润。保住利润，让自己活得久一点。 这次的墓碑事件确实是比较罕见，但是你活的足够久就一定会常常经历。活得久就要考虑怎么样玩一个无限游戏；那就要尽量离零和博弈远一些。这个世界上没有确定性的事，如果不能经历遍历性，事情发生的概率就没有意义。 德州扑克输钱最大的是什么时候？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d1f1a65b2db58a7a168e8c10ca61c5","width":"1708","height":"462"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1715fe99a0caf7eecf0e6fa37821d7f9","width":"1179","height":"440"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62304194be6efdd84cbf3511c600e55b","width":"1892","height":"674"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/287089553055976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":240729482137648,"gmtCreate":1699790369944,"gmtModify":1699790372074,"author":{"id":"3510999202679154","authorId":"3510999202679154","name":"魔王K","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ade1b38da306f5a6bcbb862dd60bd06d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3510999202679154","idStr":"3510999202679154"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/240729482137648","repostId":"1151545767","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1151545767","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1699788958,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151545767?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-12 19:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"看跌33%！汇丰为何看空特斯拉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151545767","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于需求走向疲软，近日以来，看跌情绪逐渐蔓延全球电动汽车市场，特斯拉作为龙头企业首当其冲。具体来看，汇丰下调特斯拉评级的报告主要包含以下内容。交付目标难以实现交付时间是汇丰最关心的问题，汇丰认为特斯拉无法实现其2030年交付2000万辆汽车和储能1TWh的目标。汇丰预测，到2030年，特斯拉的单位销量将增长到约600万辆，远低于其每年2000万辆的目标。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>2023年2000万交付目标恐难实现，非汽车业务有潜在风险，马斯克既是资产也是风险。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于需求走向疲软，近日以来，看跌情绪逐渐蔓延全球电动汽车市场，特斯拉作为龙头企业首当其冲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在11月9日发布的报告中，<strong>汇丰银行首次覆盖特斯拉即给出“卖出”评级，设定目标价146美元</strong>，约为当前股价下跌32%。特斯拉股价应声回落，当天收盘跌近5.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰在报告中解释下调评级的原因为：“我们认为交付时间表可能比市场和估值反映的时间更长，因此降低该评级。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰其给出的“卖出”评级是在特斯拉分析师中看涨者多于看跌者的情况下作出的。在接受FactSet调查的46位分析师中，20位给予特斯拉股票买进或同等评级，19位给予持有或同等评级。只有七位给予卖出或同等评级。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具体来看，汇丰下调特斯拉评级的报告主要包含以下内容。</p><h2 id=\"id_2463474411\">交付目标难以实现</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">交付时间是汇丰最关心的问题，汇丰认为<strong>特斯拉无法实现其2030年交付2000万辆汽车和储能1TWh的目标</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">10月最新发布的第三季度财报显示，特斯拉三季度全球电动车交付量超43.5万辆，同比增长约27%；前三季度全球累计交付超132.4万辆，超过2022年交付量的总和。特斯拉还表示，2023年的交付量目标为约180万辆。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据特斯拉此前表示，它将在2030年实现2000万辆的交付量。汇丰认为其可信度有待考量，并<strong>将交付时间可能不及目标作为“减持”特斯拉的主要理由</strong>：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们的谨慎源于<strong>其各种想法的时机和商业化的不确定性</strong>。我们认为特斯拉的前景和想法具有相当大的潜力，但我们认为时间可能比市场和估值所反映的要长。因此给予 &#34;减持 &#34;评级。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰预测，到2030年，特斯拉的单位销量将增长到约600万辆，远低于其每年2000万辆的目标。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60284288a14abe380fb5c742d246d4e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，在电力储备和投资计划上，特斯拉也可能无法实现目标。据推测，特斯拉的目标是到2030年实现1TWh的储能量，如果实现这一目标，根据BNEF的市场预测，特斯拉的存储量将占2030年存储市场总量的71%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰表示，这一目标几乎无法完成：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然总体规划没有严格的时间表，但显然所有各方（不仅仅是特斯拉）所需的投资水平都很高，例如，<strong>即使将整个特斯拉汽车矩阵都纳入存储资源</strong>，目前（考虑到当前的电池尺寸）到2030年最多也只能增加2TWh的存储量。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/014320a269c8148e635a2d25e72e467e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"109\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3383887826\">非汽车业务带来潜在风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前，特斯拉当前估值的很大一部分与FSD、Dojo、Optimus等项目的潜力有关，马斯克也曾经表示：特斯拉的主要增长支柱将超越汽车业务。因此，这些业务的重大延误或发展表明其商业化缺乏技术、监管方面的可行性，会给特斯拉带来重大风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，<strong>特斯拉的估值在很大程度上是由FSD（自动驾驶）的发展前景决定的</strong>，但汇丰对特斯拉FSD的前景不报乐观态度。主要有四点原因：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>FSD真正完全落地（如达到L5-1级别）还需要多长时间未可知；</p></li><li><p>完全FSD软件包定价可能提升至10-20万的价格是否合理；</p></li><li><p>FSD汽车对市场规模的侵蚀；</p></li><li><p>由于事故责任在理论上由生产厂家承担，FSD意味着给特斯拉带来更高的资本风险。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次，<strong>长期来看，Dojo超级计算机业务也将在特斯拉的营收来源中占主要比重</strong>。汇丰指出，如果人工智能计算是推动全球下一代颠覆性技术应用和服务的核心技术，那么 &#34;Dojo服务 &#34;就可能成为特斯拉未来的主要收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个影响因素是量子计算的潜在威胁。报告预测道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果量子计算与 Dojo 的发展处于同一时期，到 Dojo 即服务成为第三方产品时，量子计算有可能成为像 Dojo 这样的人工智能计算服务的潜在颠覆者。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，还处于原型阶段的Optimus机器人业务，马斯克也将其视作<strong>特斯拉长期估值的“主要驱动力”</strong>。但汇丰认为其“商业化仍需时日”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前，在工业领域，仿人机器人商业化的主要障碍是<strong>在功能和智能方面无法满足客户的期望</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管特斯拉Optimus机器人具有成本优势和自动驾驶技术训练的基础优势，但汇丰认为：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">仿人机器人需要在执行任务方面达到成熟替代品的水平，如工业机械臂、AGV和家庭清洁机器人，市场才能起飞。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基于DCF和倍数的混合估值法对贴现现金流估算后，汇丰给出的结果较为悲观：在对特斯拉的 &#34;贴现现金流 &#34;估值中，<strong>几乎有一半来自2028e之前不会产生收入和利润的业务</strong>，也就是包括FSD、Dojo、Optimus在内的非汽车业务。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/969472d8022da3428804d6efb75ad6e5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"540\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3005887951\">马斯克既是“资产”也是“风险”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰将马斯克本人也视作影响特斯拉估值的因素之一，汇丰认为：<strong>马斯克本人既是一种“资产”，同样也是一种“风险”</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正因为马斯克的全球声誉为该集团带来的影响力、知名度远远超过了企业在营销和广告上所花费的资金，所以，也可以将其视作损益表上的一个“实实在在的收益”，同样也可以视为企业的一个“独立”（single man）风险。</p><h2 id=\"id_2272340475\">特斯拉估值的溢价有合理性</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，汇丰承认特斯拉业内的“领先地位”：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉不仅仅是一家昂贵的汽车公司，它的目标是成为创新者，这也是其估值的基础。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为相较于传统的汽车制造商，特斯拉在成本方面处于领先地位，并且汇丰认为传统汽车制造商不再是增长型企业，其用户已经趋于饱和。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，汇丰认为目前对特斯拉的估值溢价有一定合理性：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>特斯拉汽车面临的挑战比现有汽车制造商要少，因此理应获得溢价。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从历史股价走向来看，基本上每次股价跳涨都来自特斯拉创新举措的推升，因此，汇丰认为<strong>市场对“下一个大事件”的期待将持续支撑特斯拉目前的股价水平</strong>，前提是汽车业务向好，能够支持特斯拉将创意落地，成功转化为产品。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们认为，只要“基础”业务表现良好，这种希望就不会破灭。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0266c68381aff4b3428549c6d4c5cff4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>看跌33%！汇丰为何看空特斯拉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n看跌33%！汇丰为何看空特斯拉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-12 19:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701835><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2023年2000万交付目标恐难实现，非汽车业务有潜在风险，马斯克既是资产也是风险。由于需求走向疲软，近日以来，看跌情绪逐渐蔓延全球电动汽车市场，特斯拉作为龙头企业首当其冲。在11月9日发布的报告中，汇丰银行首次覆盖特斯拉即给出“卖出”评级，设定目标价146美元，约为当前股价下跌32%。特斯拉股价应声回落，当天收盘跌近5.5%。汇丰在报告中解释下调评级的原因为：“我们认为交付时间表可能比市场和估值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701835\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701835","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151545767","content_text":"2023年2000万交付目标恐难实现，非汽车业务有潜在风险，马斯克既是资产也是风险。由于需求走向疲软，近日以来，看跌情绪逐渐蔓延全球电动汽车市场，特斯拉作为龙头企业首当其冲。在11月9日发布的报告中，汇丰银行首次覆盖特斯拉即给出“卖出”评级，设定目标价146美元，约为当前股价下跌32%。特斯拉股价应声回落，当天收盘跌近5.5%。汇丰在报告中解释下调评级的原因为：“我们认为交付时间表可能比市场和估值反映的时间更长，因此降低该评级。”值得注意的是，汇丰其给出的“卖出”评级是在特斯拉分析师中看涨者多于看跌者的情况下作出的。在接受FactSet调查的46位分析师中，20位给予特斯拉股票买进或同等评级，19位给予持有或同等评级。只有七位给予卖出或同等评级。具体来看，汇丰下调特斯拉评级的报告主要包含以下内容。交付目标难以实现交付时间是汇丰最关心的问题，汇丰认为特斯拉无法实现其2030年交付2000万辆汽车和储能1TWh的目标。10月最新发布的第三季度财报显示，特斯拉三季度全球电动车交付量超43.5万辆，同比增长约27%；前三季度全球累计交付超132.4万辆，超过2022年交付量的总和。特斯拉还表示，2023年的交付量目标为约180万辆。根据特斯拉此前表示，它将在2030年实现2000万辆的交付量。汇丰认为其可信度有待考量，并将交付时间可能不及目标作为“减持”特斯拉的主要理由：我们的谨慎源于其各种想法的时机和商业化的不确定性。我们认为特斯拉的前景和想法具有相当大的潜力，但我们认为时间可能比市场和估值所反映的要长。因此给予 \"减持 \"评级。汇丰预测，到2030年，特斯拉的单位销量将增长到约600万辆，远低于其每年2000万辆的目标。另一方面，在电力储备和投资计划上，特斯拉也可能无法实现目标。据推测，特斯拉的目标是到2030年实现1TWh的储能量，如果实现这一目标，根据BNEF的市场预测，特斯拉的存储量将占2030年存储市场总量的71%。汇丰表示，这一目标几乎无法完成：虽然总体规划没有严格的时间表，但显然所有各方（不仅仅是特斯拉）所需的投资水平都很高，例如，即使将整个特斯拉汽车矩阵都纳入存储资源，目前（考虑到当前的电池尺寸）到2030年最多也只能增加2TWh的存储量。非汽车业务带来潜在风险目前，特斯拉当前估值的很大一部分与FSD、Dojo、Optimus等项目的潜力有关，马斯克也曾经表示：特斯拉的主要增长支柱将超越汽车业务。因此，这些业务的重大延误或发展表明其商业化缺乏技术、监管方面的可行性，会给特斯拉带来重大风险。首先，特斯拉的估值在很大程度上是由FSD（自动驾驶）的发展前景决定的，但汇丰对特斯拉FSD的前景不报乐观态度。主要有四点原因：FSD真正完全落地（如达到L5-1级别）还需要多长时间未可知；完全FSD软件包定价可能提升至10-20万的价格是否合理；FSD汽车对市场规模的侵蚀；由于事故责任在理论上由生产厂家承担，FSD意味着给特斯拉带来更高的资本风险。其次，长期来看，Dojo超级计算机业务也将在特斯拉的营收来源中占主要比重。汇丰指出，如果人工智能计算是推动全球下一代颠覆性技术应用和服务的核心技术，那么 \"Dojo服务 \"就可能成为特斯拉未来的主要收入来源。一个影响因素是量子计算的潜在威胁。报告预测道：如果量子计算与 Dojo 的发展处于同一时期，到 Dojo 即服务成为第三方产品时，量子计算有可能成为像 Dojo 这样的人工智能计算服务的潜在颠覆者。最后，还处于原型阶段的Optimus机器人业务，马斯克也将其视作特斯拉长期估值的“主要驱动力”。但汇丰认为其“商业化仍需时日”。目前，在工业领域，仿人机器人商业化的主要障碍是在功能和智能方面无法满足客户的期望。尽管特斯拉Optimus机器人具有成本优势和自动驾驶技术训练的基础优势，但汇丰认为：仿人机器人需要在执行任务方面达到成熟替代品的水平，如工业机械臂、AGV和家庭清洁机器人，市场才能起飞。基于DCF和倍数的混合估值法对贴现现金流估算后，汇丰给出的结果较为悲观：在对特斯拉的 \"贴现现金流 \"估值中，几乎有一半来自2028e之前不会产生收入和利润的业务，也就是包括FSD、Dojo、Optimus在内的非汽车业务。马斯克既是“资产”也是“风险”值得注意的是，汇丰将马斯克本人也视作影响特斯拉估值的因素之一，汇丰认为：马斯克本人既是一种“资产”，同样也是一种“风险”。正因为马斯克的全球声誉为该集团带来的影响力、知名度远远超过了企业在营销和广告上所花费的资金，所以，也可以将其视作损益表上的一个“实实在在的收益”，同样也可以视为企业的一个“独立”（single man）风险。特斯拉估值的溢价有合理性不过，汇丰承认特斯拉业内的“领先地位”：特斯拉不仅仅是一家昂贵的汽车公司，它的目标是成为创新者，这也是其估值的基础。因为相较于传统的汽车制造商，特斯拉在成本方面处于领先地位，并且汇丰认为传统汽车制造商不再是增长型企业，其用户已经趋于饱和。因此，汇丰认为目前对特斯拉的估值溢价有一定合理性：特斯拉汽车面临的挑战比现有汽车制造商要少，因此理应获得溢价。从历史股价走向来看，基本上每次股价跳涨都来自特斯拉创新举措的推升，因此，汇丰认为市场对“下一个大事件”的期待将持续支撑特斯拉目前的股价水平，前提是汽车业务向好，能够支持特斯拉将创意落地，成功转化为产品。我们认为，只要“基础”业务表现良好，这种希望就不会破灭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628087390,"gmtCreate":1672758128810,"gmtModify":1672758262197,"author":{"id":"3510999202679154","authorId":"3510999202679154","name":"魔王K","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ade1b38da306f5a6bcbb862dd60bd06d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3510999202679154","idStr":"3510999202679154"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ &nbsp;</a>‌小破站牛逼！！！！","listText":"‌<a 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转综合很麻烦呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686406830","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680311009,"gmtCreate":1654772593306,"gmtModify":1704860398148,"author":{"id":"3510999202679154","authorId":"3510999202679154","name":"魔王K","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ade1b38da306f5a6bcbb862dd60bd06d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3510999202679154","idStr":"3510999202679154"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>高位接盘！","listText":"<a 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交易有啥不一样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614967792","repostId":"614916202","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614916202,"gmtCreate":1653320996235,"gmtModify":1653357079875,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440721572920950","idStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"如何理解滴滴确定从纽交所退市？投资者有何选择？","htmlText":"5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a> 公布临时股东大会结果，表决结果为781,060,684票赞成，30,374,766票反对，毫无疑问地通过。同时，滴滴也发出通知，将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所摘牌。<a href=\"https://ir.didiglobal.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2022/DiDi-Provides-Notification-to-Delist-its-ADSs-from-NYSE/default.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">点击查看原文</a> 由于此次属于“自愿退市”，美国证券法的规定，在美国上市的公司，董事会可决议批准自愿退市，随后书面通知交易所并在10日内向SEC提交Form-25，从而完成退市。滴滴则是在6月2日之后的10日内完成退市。 值得注意的是，按照上述程序自愿退市的公司的股份可继续以场外方式(OTC)交易，也就是说，投资者手中的滴滴股票可以继续在OTC市场交易，和当时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a> 一样。虽然一般OTC市场的交易相对清淡，但参考瑞幸，像滴滴这样股东众多的公司在OTC市场的交易很有可能相对活跃。 友情提醒，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 支持OTC市场的交易。 此外，投资者也可以参考滴滴5月11日发布的公告，具体说明了此次申请自愿退市的原因（","listText":"5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a> 公布临时股东大会结果，表决结果为781,060,684票赞成，30,374,766票反对，毫无疑问地通过。同时，滴滴也发出通知，将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所摘牌。<a href=\"https://ir.didiglobal.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2022/DiDi-Provides-Notification-to-Delist-its-ADSs-from-NYSE/default.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">点击查看原文</a> 由于此次属于“自愿退市”，美国证券法的规定，在美国上市的公司，董事会可决议批准自愿退市，随后书面通知交易所并在10日内向SEC提交Form-25，从而完成退市。滴滴则是在6月2日之后的10日内完成退市。 值得注意的是，按照上述程序自愿退市的公司的股份可继续以场外方式(OTC)交易，也就是说，投资者手中的滴滴股票可以继续在OTC市场交易，和当时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a> 一样。虽然一般OTC市场的交易相对清淡，但参考瑞幸，像滴滴这样股东众多的公司在OTC市场的交易很有可能相对活跃。 友情提醒，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 支持OTC市场的交易。 此外，投资者也可以参考滴滴5月11日发布的公告，具体说明了此次申请自愿退市的原因（","text":"5月23日，$滴滴(DIDI)$ 公布临时股东大会结果，表决结果为781,060,684票赞成，30,374,766票反对，毫无疑问地通过。同时，滴滴也发出通知，将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所摘牌。点击查看原文 由于此次属于“自愿退市”，美国证券法的规定，在美国上市的公司，董事会可决议批准自愿退市，随后书面通知交易所并在10日内向SEC提交Form-25，从而完成退市。滴滴则是在6月2日之后的10日内完成退市。 值得注意的是，按照上述程序自愿退市的公司的股份可继续以场外方式(OTC)交易，也就是说，投资者手中的滴滴股票可以继续在OTC市场交易，和当时$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ 一样。虽然一般OTC市场的交易相对清淡，但参考瑞幸，像滴滴这样股东众多的公司在OTC市场的交易很有可能相对活跃。 友情提醒，$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 支持OTC市场的交易。 此外，投资者也可以参考滴滴5月11日发布的公告，具体说明了此次申请自愿退市的原因（","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23beb71c5cbd6cc17a473eba25bfe40a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614916202","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612108015,"gmtCreate":1652197182637,"gmtModify":1652197182637,"author":{"id":"3510999202679154","authorId":"3510999202679154","name":"魔王K","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ade1b38da306f5a6bcbb862dd60bd06d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3510999202679154","idStr":"3510999202679154"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Mark","listText":"Mark","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612108015","repostId":"2234521126","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2234521126","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1652169201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2234521126?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-10 15:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"涂鸦智能股权曝光：王学集持股19.9% 有49.3%投票权","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234521126","media":"雷递网","summary":"涂鸦智能日前递交20-F文件，文件显示，截至2022年4月12日，涂鸦智能创始人兼CEO王学集持股为19.9%，有49.3%的投票权；","content":"<html><body><p><img img_=\"\" inline=\"0\" src=\"https://p6.toutiaoimg.com/origin/tos-cn-i-qvj2lq49k0/ad4393157f7c46359c7f030b29214789?from=pc\"/></p><p><span><span>雷递网 雷建平 5月10日报道</span></span></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">涂鸦智能</a>日前递交20-F文件，文件显示，截至2022年4月12日，涂鸦智能创始人兼CEO王学集持股为19.9%，有49.3%的投票权；</span></p><p><img img_=\"\" inline=\"0\" src=\"https://p6.toutiaoimg.com/origin/tos-cn-i-qvj2lq49k0/d7380e0f91da4c83861dc5b289ff43ed?from=pc\"/></p><p>截至2022年4月12日，涂鸦智能股权结构</p><p><span>涂鸦智能创始人兼总裁陈燎罕持股5%，有25.9%的投票权；联合创始人兼CTO周瑞鑫持股为3.8%，有1.3%的投票权；</span></p><p><span>Jing Hong持股为2.1%，有0.7%的投票权；Scott Sandell持股为21.6%，有7.4%的投票权；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>持股为10.2%，有3.5%的投票权。</span></p><p><img img_=\"\" inline=\"0\" src=\"https://p6.toutiaoimg.com/origin/tos-cn-i-qvj2lq49k0/4c19540ed7e34aaea42e64bafb86d0a8?from=pc\"/></p><p><span>涂鸦智能是2021年3月19日在美国纽交所上市，发行价为21美元，募资9.15亿美元。以当天收盘价计算，涂鸦智能市值约140亿美元。</span></p><p><span>财报显示，涂鸦智能2021年营收为3.02亿美元，上年同期的营收为1.8亿美元；毛利为1.28亿美元，上年同期的毛利为6194万美元。</span></p><p><span>涂鸦智能2021年运营亏损为1.84亿美元，上年同期的运营亏损为6984.6万美元；净亏损为1.75亿美元，上年同期的净亏损为6691万美元。</span></p><p><span>截至2021年12月31日，涂鸦智能持有的现金、现金等价物及短期投资总额为10.7亿美元。</span></p><p><span>过去一年，股市资本市场动荡，截至目前，涂鸦智能股价为2.02美元，较上市时的发行价下跌95%。</span></p><p><span>截至目前，公司市值为11.3亿美元，较上年跌去了近130亿美元。</span></p><p><span>———————————————</span></p><p><span><span>雷递由资深媒体人雷建平创办，若转载请写明来源。</span></span></p></body></html>","source":"leinews_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n涂鸦智能股权曝光：王学集持股19.9% 有49.3%投票权\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-10 15:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.leinews.com/Common/YiAPP.ashx?YiAPP_Method=uNews.PC_GetNewsInfo&YiAPP_Action=YiAPP.APP.SHOP&YiAPP_SIKW=true><strong>雷递网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>雷递网 雷建平 5月10日报道涂鸦智能日前递交20-F文件，文件显示，截至2022年4月12日，涂鸦智能创始人兼CEO王学集持股为19.9%，有49.3%的投票权；截至2022年4月12日，涂鸦智能股权结构涂鸦智能创始人兼总裁陈燎罕持股5%，有25.9%的投票权；联合创始人兼CTO周瑞鑫持股为3.8%，有1.3%的投票权；Jing Hong持股为2.1%，有0.7%的投票权；Scott ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.leinews.com/Common/YiAPP.ashx?YiAPP_Method=uNews.PC_GetNewsInfo&YiAPP_Action=YiAPP.APP.SHOP&YiAPP_SIKW=true\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://leidinews-1256465536.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/u_News/20220510/6378779479799361143681760.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","02391":"涂鸦智能-W","TUYA":"涂鸦智能","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.leinews.com/Common/YiAPP.ashx?YiAPP_Method=uNews.PC_GetNewsInfo&YiAPP_Action=YiAPP.APP.SHOP&YiAPP_SIKW=true","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2234521126","content_text":"雷递网 雷建平 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