方济的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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09-25

2025雷军年度演讲：改变 - 老虎社区

查看详情： 2025雷军年度演讲：改变 - 老虎社区此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

2025雷军年度演讲：改变 - 老虎社区

08-15

‌$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ ‌速速破100好吗，我等着接货呢。

09-11

‌$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ ‌搞什么啊，为什么openai的大单给了甲骨文，这不是割肉嘛。

08-06

不能看k线炒股啊，会锚定的。别说100了，33万我都不考虑，这家公司上市的时候就成熟了，没有故事讲了。

07-18

$小米集团ADR(XIACY)$ 我很个人的认为，小米会新高的，但是不会很快，起码得等提了yu7的人开一段时间，如果没有大问题就顺势起飞！如果有大佬能提出不同的看法，欢迎指正！

08-02

这是交易仙人！

11-03

$TCH.HK 20260629 400.00 CALL$ 加油！

10-27

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 加油！

10-21

$INTC 20251024 33.5 PUT$ ⛽️

10-13

$TCH.HK 20260629 400.00 CALL$ 加油⛽️！

10-06

$ALB.HK 20251010 195.00 CALL$ 加油！

09-29

$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ 阿里巴巴！

09-26

1

直播：期权策略复盘&答疑

09-22

$英特尔(INTC)$ ⛽️！

09-21

英伟达！开启AI时代的钥匙🔑。

09-19

汽车股我为什么不买特斯拉和小米呢？至少能幻想一下啊。

09-11

‌$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ ‌哥们，甲骨文都要回调，你凭什么啊。

09-11

梭哈就好，理性什么的不需要，在牛市这只会拦住你赚钱。

对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？

09-10

‌$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ ‌我以为和AI相关，但没想到是这类业务。

09-08

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 腾讯！

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亏麻了！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1a6e4c3cd6ca7a2a1b2ec38c049fdd","width":"1086","height":"1713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/478724136194184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477903790497904,"gmtCreate":1757685876366,"gmtModify":1757685879347,"author":{"id":"3512876966890600","authorId":"3512876966890600","name":"方济","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147e5a97ff182bad6e2bad6a2e5ce314","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512876966890600","authorIdStr":"3512876966890600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ &nbsp;</a>‌哎，难啊。","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ &nbsp;</a>‌哎，难啊。","text":"‌$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ ‌哎，难啊。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477903790497904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477899953722184,"gmtCreate":1757684314088,"gmtModify":1757685072480,"author":{"id":"3512876966890600","authorId":"3512876966890600","name":"方济","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147e5a97ff182bad6e2bad6a2e5ce314","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512876966890600","authorIdStr":"3512876966890600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ &nbsp;</a>如果我是英伟达，那把东西卖给你一下就能赚很多。如果你租我的，那岂不是很久才能收回成本？风险转嫁给别人更好。 gpu这种东西发展如果变快，很多老产品就成了电子垃圾啊。","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ &nbsp;</a>如果我是英伟达，那把东西卖给你一下就能赚很多。如果你租我的，那岂不是很久才能收回成本？风险转嫁给别人更好。 gpu这种东西发展如果变快，很多老产品就成了电子垃圾啊。","text":"‌$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 如果我是英伟达，那把东西卖给你一下就能赚很多。如果你租我的，那岂不是很久才能收回成本？风险转嫁给别人更好。 gpu这种东西发展如果变快，很多老产品就成了电子垃圾啊。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477899953722184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477544610657040,"gmtCreate":1757597799733,"gmtModify":1757597801059,"author":{"id":"3512876966890600","authorId":"3512876966890600","name":"方济","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147e5a97ff182bad6e2bad6a2e5ce314","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512876966890600","authorIdStr":"3512876966890600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ &nbsp;</a>‌哥们，甲骨文都要回调，你凭什么啊。","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ &nbsp;</a>‌哥们，甲骨文都要回调，你凭什么啊。","text":"‌$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ ‌哥们，甲骨文都要回调，你凭什么啊。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477544610657040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477520703787880,"gmtCreate":1757591725774,"gmtModify":1757591727627,"author":{"id":"3512876966890600","authorId":"3512876966890600","name":"方济","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147e5a97ff182bad6e2bad6a2e5ce314","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512876966890600","authorIdStr":"3512876966890600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"梭哈就好，理性什么的不需要，在牛市这只会拦住你赚钱。","listText":"梭哈就好，理性什么的不需要，在牛市这只会拦住你赚钱。","text":"梭哈就好，理性什么的不需要，在牛市这只会拦住你赚钱。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477520703787880","repostId":"2566932964","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2566932964","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1757587988,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2566932964?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-11 18:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2566932964","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"爆发式RPO增长：全部押注AI及OpenAI。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>最新发布的财报让市场陷入一种矛盾的狂热。</p><p>一方面，公司当期收入和短期指引双双不及预期；另一方面，其剩余履约价值（RPO，即积压订单）一夜之间暴增至“令人瞠目结舌”的4550亿美元。如此大幅的增长，几乎全部由四份多亿美元合同推动，其中国内外分析普遍认为最大份额与OpenAI的长期云服务合同直接相关。</p><p>与此同时，最新消息让这笔神秘的巨额RPO浮出水面：9月10日，据报道，OpenAI已签署合同，<strong>在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的计算能力，这意味着OpenAI每年平均需要向甲骨文支付约600亿美元。</strong></p><p>对于投资者而言，看懂这组数据背后的真正含义至关重要。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在10日的研报中表示，市场可能忽略了几个核心问题：这份史诗级订单的客户是否过于集中（尤其是对OpenAI的依赖）？绝大部分收入是否遥遥无期？这些AI订单的利润率究竟如何？以及，为了支撑这些订单，甲骨文是否有足够的资金进行天文数字般的基础设施建设？这些问题直接关系到甲骨文未来的盈利能力和现金流健康，是投资者在狂热中必须冷静思考的关键。</p><h2 id=\"id_2196333389\">爆发式RPO增长：全部押注AI及OpenAI</h2><p>甲骨文第一财季最引人注目的无疑是其RPO的惊人增长。4550亿美元的数字意味着单季增加了约3170亿美元的未来业务，同比增幅高达359%。公司首席执行官Safra Catz向分析师表示，该季度公司与三位不同的客户签署了合同。她强调：</p><blockquote><p>我们已经与人工智能领域的巨头们签署了重要的云合同，包括OpenAI、xAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>以及许多其他公司。</p></blockquote><p>而最新报道披露了这笔让市场疯狂的履约：9月10日， OpenAI已签署合同，<strong>在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的算力</strong>。该协议将从2027年开始执行，所需的4.5GW电力容量相当于两座胡佛水坝的发电量，足以供应约400万户家庭用电。</p><p>需要注意的是，OpenAI是一家仍在亏损的初创公司，其在6月披露的年化收入约为100亿美元，<strong>这远低于其为该协议每年平均需要支付的600亿美元。</strong>因此，这笔交易的成功，完全建立在ChatGPT能够持续其爆炸性增长，并被全球数十亿用户以及主要企业和政府广泛采用的假设之上。</p><p>摩根大通分析师表示，新增RPO中大部分属于长期履约义务，<strong>而大约只有10%属于短期RPO（即未来一年内将确认的收入），这意味着短期履约合同额环比几乎没有增长，大部分收入将在遥远的未来才能得到确认。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的股票研究团队在10日的研报中也预计，在这笔高达4550亿美元的RPO中，只有约10%会在未来12个月内确认为收入。</p><p>虽然OpenAI的增长非同寻常，但它也正面临日益增长的压力，包括昂贵的人才争夺战、与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>紧张的合作关系谈判，以及一项正在接受两个州监管机构审查的营利性重组。对OpenAI而言，这是一次对其未来增长的激进赌博；而对甲骨文来说，这意味着将未来收入的很大一部分集中于单一客户，这对双方的执行力和市场前景都提出了严峻考验。</p><h2 id=\"id_599282658\">短期财务承压，指引不及预期</h2><p>与积压订单的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">辉煌</a>形成鲜明对比的是甲骨文疲软的即期业绩和短期展望。第一财季总收入按固定汇率计算增长11%，低于市场普遍预期的13%。其中，云服务和许可支持收入增长14%（固定汇率），也低于16%的共识预期。</p><p>更令市场担忧的是，公司对第二财季的总收入增长指引为12-14%，低于市场预期的15%；总云收入增长指引为32-36%，同样低于预期的37%。分析师在报告中认为，<strong>这反映出新增的大部分RPO属于长期合同，对近期的财务贡献有限。</strong></p><p><strong>与此同时，甲骨文的自由现金流也因巨大的资本支出而承压。</strong>第一财季自由现金流为负3.62亿美元，远低于市场预期的12.71亿美元。为支持云基础设施（OCI）的建设，公司将2026财年的资本支出指引上调100亿美元至350亿美元，这预示着其自由现金流在未来一段时间内将继续面临压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_175938248\">利润与增长的权衡</h2><p>甲骨文正在进行一场典型的“以利润换增长”的豪赌。摩根大通认为，新增的大部分订单与AI模型训练有关，这类业务的利润率相对较低，可能会在长期内拖累营业利润的增长速度，使其慢于收入增长。</p><p>基于这一判断，该行预计，在甲骨文发布财报后，<strong>市场对其未来数年收入的普遍预期将会上调，但每股收益（EPS）的预期变动将微乎其微，而自由现金流（FCF）的预期则会下调。</strong></p><p>甲骨文将2026财年的营业利润增长指引设定为“中双位数”，略高于市场目前约12%的增长预期。摩根大通认为，这可能更多反映了近期裁员所带来的成本节约效应，而非来自业务本身的高利润增长。</p><h2 id=\"id_630311960\">摩根大通维持中性评级，上调目标价</h2><p>尽管存在诸多疑问和短期压力，摩根大通承认甲骨文在获取OCI业务方面取得了“令人印象深刻的成就”，并认可其在AI领域的长期潜力。该行将甲骨文的目标价从210美元上调至270美元，主要理由是提升了对OCI业务的多年增长轨迹预期。</p><p>然而，该行维持对甲骨文的“中性”评级，认为当前的风险与回报“趋于平衡”。虽然AI相关的积极数据点可能会在短期内主导市场讨论，但投资者最终需要关注利润率和现金流等基本面问题。甲骨文的成功取决于其能否高效地建设数据中心容量、维持OCI订单的增长势头，并成功消化此前收购的Cerner业务。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-11 18:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>甲骨文最新发布的财报让市场陷入一种矛盾的狂热。一方面，公司当期收入和短期指引双双不及预期；另一方面，其剩余履约价值（RPO，即积压订单）一夜之间暴增至“令人瞠目结舌”的4550亿美元。如此大幅的增长，几乎全部由四份多亿美元合同推动，其中国内外分析普遍认为最大份额与OpenAI的长期云服务合同直接相关。与此同时，最新消息让这笔神秘的巨额RPO浮出水面：9月10日，据报道，OpenAI已签署合同，在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a763433a3b9770e33abe759e6bf88d9","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2566932964","content_text":"甲骨文最新发布的财报让市场陷入一种矛盾的狂热。一方面，公司当期收入和短期指引双双不及预期；另一方面，其剩余履约价值（RPO，即积压订单）一夜之间暴增至“令人瞠目结舌”的4550亿美元。如此大幅的增长，几乎全部由四份多亿美元合同推动，其中国内外分析普遍认为最大份额与OpenAI的长期云服务合同直接相关。与此同时，最新消息让这笔神秘的巨额RPO浮出水面：9月10日，据报道，OpenAI已签署合同，在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的计算能力，这意味着OpenAI每年平均需要向甲骨文支付约600亿美元。对于投资者而言，看懂这组数据背后的真正含义至关重要。摩根大通在10日的研报中表示，市场可能忽略了几个核心问题：这份史诗级订单的客户是否过于集中（尤其是对OpenAI的依赖）？绝大部分收入是否遥遥无期？这些AI订单的利润率究竟如何？以及，为了支撑这些订单，甲骨文是否有足够的资金进行天文数字般的基础设施建设？这些问题直接关系到甲骨文未来的盈利能力和现金流健康，是投资者在狂热中必须冷静思考的关键。爆发式RPO增长：全部押注AI及OpenAI甲骨文第一财季最引人注目的无疑是其RPO的惊人增长。4550亿美元的数字意味着单季增加了约3170亿美元的未来业务，同比增幅高达359%。公司首席执行官Safra Catz向分析师表示，该季度公司与三位不同的客户签署了合同。她强调：我们已经与人工智能领域的巨头们签署了重要的云合同，包括OpenAI、xAI、Meta、英伟达、AMD以及许多其他公司。而最新报道披露了这笔让市场疯狂的履约：9月10日， OpenAI已签署合同，在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的算力。该协议将从2027年开始执行，所需的4.5GW电力容量相当于两座胡佛水坝的发电量，足以供应约400万户家庭用电。需要注意的是，OpenAI是一家仍在亏损的初创公司，其在6月披露的年化收入约为100亿美元，这远低于其为该协议每年平均需要支付的600亿美元。因此，这笔交易的成功，完全建立在ChatGPT能够持续其爆炸性增长，并被全球数十亿用户以及主要企业和政府广泛采用的假设之上。摩根大通分析师表示，新增RPO中大部分属于长期履约义务，而大约只有10%属于短期RPO（即未来一年内将确认的收入），这意味着短期履约合同额环比几乎没有增长，大部分收入将在遥远的未来才能得到确认。摩根士丹利的股票研究团队在10日的研报中也预计，在这笔高达4550亿美元的RPO中，只有约10%会在未来12个月内确认为收入。虽然OpenAI的增长非同寻常，但它也正面临日益增长的压力，包括昂贵的人才争夺战、与微软紧张的合作关系谈判，以及一项正在接受两个州监管机构审查的营利性重组。对OpenAI而言，这是一次对其未来增长的激进赌博；而对甲骨文来说，这意味着将未来收入的很大一部分集中于单一客户，这对双方的执行力和市场前景都提出了严峻考验。短期财务承压，指引不及预期与积压订单的辉煌形成鲜明对比的是甲骨文疲软的即期业绩和短期展望。第一财季总收入按固定汇率计算增长11%，低于市场普遍预期的13%。其中，云服务和许可支持收入增长14%（固定汇率），也低于16%的共识预期。更令市场担忧的是，公司对第二财季的总收入增长指引为12-14%，低于市场预期的15%；总云收入增长指引为32-36%，同样低于预期的37%。分析师在报告中认为，这反映出新增的大部分RPO属于长期合同，对近期的财务贡献有限。与此同时，甲骨文的自由现金流也因巨大的资本支出而承压。第一财季自由现金流为负3.62亿美元，远低于市场预期的12.71亿美元。为支持云基础设施（OCI）的建设，公司将2026财年的资本支出指引上调100亿美元至350亿美元，这预示着其自由现金流在未来一段时间内将继续面临压力。利润与增长的权衡甲骨文正在进行一场典型的“以利润换增长”的豪赌。摩根大通认为，新增的大部分订单与AI模型训练有关，这类业务的利润率相对较低，可能会在长期内拖累营业利润的增长速度，使其慢于收入增长。基于这一判断，该行预计，在甲骨文发布财报后，市场对其未来数年收入的普遍预期将会上调，但每股收益（EPS）的预期变动将微乎其微，而自由现金流（FCF）的预期则会下调。甲骨文将2026财年的营业利润增长指引设定为“中双位数”，略高于市场目前约12%的增长预期。摩根大通认为，这可能更多反映了近期裁员所带来的成本节约效应，而非来自业务本身的高利润增长。摩根大通维持中性评级，上调目标价尽管存在诸多疑问和短期压力，摩根大通承认甲骨文在获取OCI业务方面取得了“令人印象深刻的成就”，并认可其在AI领域的长期潜力。该行将甲骨文的目标价从210美元上调至270美元，主要理由是提升了对OCI业务的多年增长轨迹预期。然而，该行维持对甲骨文的“中性”评级，认为当前的风险与回报“趋于平衡”。虽然AI相关的积极数据点可能会在短期内主导市场讨论，但投资者最终需要关注利润率和现金流等基本面问题。甲骨文的成功取决于其能否高效地建设数据中心容量、维持OCI订单的增长势头，并成功消化此前收购的Cerner业务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477212120310576,"gmtCreate":1757529356109,"gmtModify":1757529357308,"author":{"id":"3512876966890600","authorId":"3512876966890600","name":"方济","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147e5a97ff182bad6e2bad6a2e5ce314","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512876966890600","authorIdStr":"3512876966890600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a 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Catz向分析师表示，该季度公司与三位不同的客户签署了合同。她强调：</p><blockquote><p>我们已经与人工智能领域的巨头们签署了重要的云合同，包括OpenAI、xAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>以及许多其他公司。</p></blockquote><p>而最新报道披露了这笔让市场疯狂的履约：9月10日， OpenAI已签署合同，<strong>在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的算力</strong>。该协议将从2027年开始执行，所需的4.5GW电力容量相当于两座胡佛水坝的发电量，足以供应约400万户家庭用电。</p><p>需要注意的是，OpenAI是一家仍在亏损的初创公司，其在6月披露的年化收入约为100亿美元，<strong>这远低于其为该协议每年平均需要支付的600亿美元。</strong>因此，这笔交易的成功，完全建立在ChatGPT能够持续其爆炸性增长，并被全球数十亿用户以及主要企业和政府广泛采用的假设之上。</p><p>摩根大通分析师表示，新增RPO中大部分属于长期履约义务，<strong>而大约只有10%属于短期RPO（即未来一年内将确认的收入），这意味着短期履约合同额环比几乎没有增长，大部分收入将在遥远的未来才能得到确认。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的股票研究团队在10日的研报中也预计，在这笔高达4550亿美元的RPO中，只有约10%会在未来12个月内确认为收入。</p><p>虽然OpenAI的增长非同寻常，但它也正面临日益增长的压力，包括昂贵的人才争夺战、与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>紧张的合作关系谈判，以及一项正在接受两个州监管机构审查的营利性重组。对OpenAI而言，这是一次对其未来增长的激进赌博；而对甲骨文来说，这意味着将未来收入的很大一部分集中于单一客户，这对双方的执行力和市场前景都提出了严峻考验。</p><h2 id=\"id_599282658\">短期财务承压，指引不及预期</h2><p>与积压订单的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">辉煌</a>形成鲜明对比的是甲骨文疲软的即期业绩和短期展望。第一财季总收入按固定汇率计算增长11%，低于市场普遍预期的13%。其中，云服务和许可支持收入增长14%（固定汇率），也低于16%的共识预期。</p><p>更令市场担忧的是，公司对第二财季的总收入增长指引为12-14%，低于市场预期的15%；总云收入增长指引为32-36%，同样低于预期的37%。分析师在报告中认为，<strong>这反映出新增的大部分RPO属于长期合同，对近期的财务贡献有限。</strong></p><p><strong>与此同时，甲骨文的自由现金流也因巨大的资本支出而承压。</strong>第一财季自由现金流为负3.62亿美元，远低于市场预期的12.71亿美元。为支持云基础设施（OCI）的建设，公司将2026财年的资本支出指引上调100亿美元至350亿美元，这预示着其自由现金流在未来一段时间内将继续面临压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_175938248\">利润与增长的权衡</h2><p>甲骨文正在进行一场典型的“以利润换增长”的豪赌。摩根大通认为，新增的大部分订单与AI模型训练有关，这类业务的利润率相对较低，可能会在长期内拖累营业利润的增长速度，使其慢于收入增长。</p><p>基于这一判断，该行预计，在甲骨文发布财报后，<strong>市场对其未来数年收入的普遍预期将会上调，但每股收益（EPS）的预期变动将微乎其微，而自由现金流（FCF）的预期则会下调。</strong></p><p>甲骨文将2026财年的营业利润增长指引设定为“中双位数”，略高于市场目前约12%的增长预期。摩根大通认为，这可能更多反映了近期裁员所带来的成本节约效应，而非来自业务本身的高利润增长。</p><h2 id=\"id_630311960\">摩根大通维持中性评级，上调目标价</h2><p>尽管存在诸多疑问和短期压力，摩根大通承认甲骨文在获取OCI业务方面取得了“令人印象深刻的成就”，并认可其在AI领域的长期潜力。该行将甲骨文的目标价从210美元上调至270美元，主要理由是提升了对OCI业务的多年增长轨迹预期。</p><p>然而，该行维持对甲骨文的“中性”评级，认为当前的风险与回报“趋于平衡”。虽然AI相关的积极数据点可能会在短期内主导市场讨论，但投资者最终需要关注利润率和现金流等基本面问题。甲骨文的成功取决于其能否高效地建设数据中心容量、维持OCI订单的增长势头，并成功消化此前收购的Cerner业务。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-11 18:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>甲骨文最新发布的财报让市场陷入一种矛盾的狂热。一方面，公司当期收入和短期指引双双不及预期；另一方面，其剩余履约价值（RPO，即积压订单）一夜之间暴增至“令人瞠目结舌”的4550亿美元。如此大幅的增长，几乎全部由四份多亿美元合同推动，其中国内外分析普遍认为最大份额与OpenAI的长期云服务合同直接相关。与此同时，最新消息让这笔神秘的巨额RPO浮出水面：9月10日，据报道，OpenAI已签署合同，在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a763433a3b9770e33abe759e6bf88d9","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2566932964","content_text":"甲骨文最新发布的财报让市场陷入一种矛盾的狂热。一方面，公司当期收入和短期指引双双不及预期；另一方面，其剩余履约价值（RPO，即积压订单）一夜之间暴增至“令人瞠目结舌”的4550亿美元。如此大幅的增长，几乎全部由四份多亿美元合同推动，其中国内外分析普遍认为最大份额与OpenAI的长期云服务合同直接相关。与此同时，最新消息让这笔神秘的巨额RPO浮出水面：9月10日，据报道，OpenAI已签署合同，在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的计算能力，这意味着OpenAI每年平均需要向甲骨文支付约600亿美元。对于投资者而言，看懂这组数据背后的真正含义至关重要。摩根大通在10日的研报中表示，市场可能忽略了几个核心问题：这份史诗级订单的客户是否过于集中（尤其是对OpenAI的依赖）？绝大部分收入是否遥遥无期？这些AI订单的利润率究竟如何？以及，为了支撑这些订单，甲骨文是否有足够的资金进行天文数字般的基础设施建设？这些问题直接关系到甲骨文未来的盈利能力和现金流健康，是投资者在狂热中必须冷静思考的关键。爆发式RPO增长：全部押注AI及OpenAI甲骨文第一财季最引人注目的无疑是其RPO的惊人增长。4550亿美元的数字意味着单季增加了约3170亿美元的未来业务，同比增幅高达359%。公司首席执行官Safra Catz向分析师表示，该季度公司与三位不同的客户签署了合同。她强调：我们已经与人工智能领域的巨头们签署了重要的云合同，包括OpenAI、xAI、Meta、英伟达、AMD以及许多其他公司。而最新报道披露了这笔让市场疯狂的履约：9月10日， OpenAI已签署合同，在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的算力。该协议将从2027年开始执行，所需的4.5GW电力容量相当于两座胡佛水坝的发电量，足以供应约400万户家庭用电。需要注意的是，OpenAI是一家仍在亏损的初创公司，其在6月披露的年化收入约为100亿美元，这远低于其为该协议每年平均需要支付的600亿美元。因此，这笔交易的成功，完全建立在ChatGPT能够持续其爆炸性增长，并被全球数十亿用户以及主要企业和政府广泛采用的假设之上。摩根大通分析师表示，新增RPO中大部分属于长期履约义务，而大约只有10%属于短期RPO（即未来一年内将确认的收入），这意味着短期履约合同额环比几乎没有增长，大部分收入将在遥远的未来才能得到确认。摩根士丹利的股票研究团队在10日的研报中也预计，在这笔高达4550亿美元的RPO中，只有约10%会在未来12个月内确认为收入。虽然OpenAI的增长非同寻常，但它也正面临日益增长的压力，包括昂贵的人才争夺战、与微软紧张的合作关系谈判，以及一项正在接受两个州监管机构审查的营利性重组。对OpenAI而言，这是一次对其未来增长的激进赌博；而对甲骨文来说，这意味着将未来收入的很大一部分集中于单一客户，这对双方的执行力和市场前景都提出了严峻考验。短期财务承压，指引不及预期与积压订单的辉煌形成鲜明对比的是甲骨文疲软的即期业绩和短期展望。第一财季总收入按固定汇率计算增长11%，低于市场普遍预期的13%。其中，云服务和许可支持收入增长14%（固定汇率），也低于16%的共识预期。更令市场担忧的是，公司对第二财季的总收入增长指引为12-14%，低于市场预期的15%；总云收入增长指引为32-36%，同样低于预期的37%。分析师在报告中认为，这反映出新增的大部分RPO属于长期合同，对近期的财务贡献有限。与此同时，甲骨文的自由现金流也因巨大的资本支出而承压。第一财季自由现金流为负3.62亿美元，远低于市场预期的12.71亿美元。为支持云基础设施（OCI）的建设，公司将2026财年的资本支出指引上调100亿美元至350亿美元，这预示着其自由现金流在未来一段时间内将继续面临压力。利润与增长的权衡甲骨文正在进行一场典型的“以利润换增长”的豪赌。摩根大通认为，新增的大部分订单与AI模型训练有关，这类业务的利润率相对较低，可能会在长期内拖累营业利润的增长速度，使其慢于收入增长。基于这一判断，该行预计，在甲骨文发布财报后，市场对其未来数年收入的普遍预期将会上调，但每股收益（EPS）的预期变动将微乎其微，而自由现金流（FCF）的预期则会下调。甲骨文将2026财年的营业利润增长指引设定为“中双位数”，略高于市场目前约12%的增长预期。摩根大通认为，这可能更多反映了近期裁员所带来的成本节约效应，而非来自业务本身的高利润增长。摩根大通维持中性评级，上调目标价尽管存在诸多疑问和短期压力，摩根大通承认甲骨文在获取OCI业务方面取得了“令人印象深刻的成就”，并认可其在AI领域的长期潜力。该行将甲骨文的目标价从210美元上调至270美元，主要理由是提升了对OCI业务的多年增长轨迹预期。然而，该行维持对甲骨文的“中性”评级，认为当前的风险与回报“趋于平衡”。虽然AI相关的积极数据点可能会在短期内主导市场讨论，但投资者最终需要关注利润率和现金流等基本面问题。甲骨文的成功取决于其能否高效地建设数据中心容量、维持OCI订单的增长势头，并成功消化此前收购的Cerner业务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":476967686488608,"gmtCreate":1757469231103,"gmtModify":1757469232326,"author":{"id":"3512876966890600","authorId":"3512876966890600","name":"方济","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147e5a97ff182bad6e2bad6a2e5ce314","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512876966890600","authorIdStr":"3512876966890600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a 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