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George）表示，本周四公布的9月美国CPI数据提醒美联储，对遏制通胀还要做更多的工作。美联储将继续推行货币紧缩，直到通胀转向。</p><p>同时乔治指出，鉴于通胀顽固居高不下，美联储可能必须提高终端利率，并将那个水平的利率保持得更久，相比这点，她更警惕的是行动的速度以及激进的程度。联储料将必须持续加息，但加息过快可能扰乱金融市场。</p><p>乔治认为，联储的货币政策需要转入限制性区间，而限制的程度仍然有待观察，因为政策行动的影响有滞后性。鉴于最近的金融市场波动，以及加息需要时间影响经济，美联储应该留神加息，行动不能太过匆忙，否则可能“干扰金融市场和经济，最终可能适得其反”。</p><p>乔治说，</p><blockquote>“我是属于倾向更稳健、更慢（行动）这个阵营的，这样做可以开始观察（货币政策行动）滞后会怎样发挥效果。现在（行动）还没有在实体经济体内全面发挥影响。”</blockquote><blockquote>“大幅调整政策利率可能增加未来行动的不确定性。”“我认为，在市场波动加剧的时候，尽量减少政策的不确定性是特别重要的。”</blockquote><p>鸽派戴利：利率达到4.5%至5%“是最有可能的结果”</p><p>同在周五，鸽派倾向的美联储官员、2024年拥有FOMC会议投票权的旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary Daly）表示，虽然有了一些经济降温的迹象，但她“非常支持”继续加息，让利率处于限制经济的水平。</p><p>戴利评价，最近公布的CPI通胀数据“非常令人失望”，她预计，未来几个月美联储会继续加息，并在利率升高后保持在那个水平</p><p>戴利称，如果经济有需要，美联储也不会一条道走到黑、不是不能转向，然而，通过加息让政策利率达到4.5%至5%“是最有可能的结果”，然后联储会计划让利率“在那个水平保持一段时间”。</p><p>也是在周五，任内永久拥有FOMC投票权的美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook）说，可能需要继续加息，美联储将继续行动，直到遏制通胀大功告成。</p><p>华尔街见闻注意到，本周四公布CPI后，市场对美联储今年末保持激进加息的预期明显升温。周五美股盘中，芝加哥商业交易所（CME）的“美联储观察工具”显示，目前美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场预计，11月美联储加息75基点的几率接近100%，同时，12月美联储政策利率升至4.5%到4.75%的几率达到75%。</p><p>这意味着，市场预计，在今年11月连续第四次加息75个基点后，12月美联储也决定加息75基点的可能性超过七成，一周前这一预测的几率只有23.4%，一天前将近62%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd519fccae17dad967852071a10a902f\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>不满CPI，美联储官员预计利率峰值更高！但警惕市场，认为加息不必再提速</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672411\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b9aaa21c9013558eb3d4bc196db771","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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George）表示，本周四公布的9月美国CPI数据提醒美联储，对遏制通胀还要做更多的工作。美联储将继续推行货币紧缩，直到通胀转向。同时乔治指出，鉴于通胀顽固居高不下，美联储可能必须提高终端利率，并将那个水平的利率保持得更久，相比这点，她更警惕的是行动的速度以及激进的程度。联储料将必须持续加息，但加息过快可能扰乱金融市场。乔治认为，联储的货币政策需要转入限制性区间，而限制的程度仍然有待观察，因为政策行动的影响有滞后性。鉴于最近的金融市场波动，以及加息需要时间影响经济，美联储应该留神加息，行动不能太过匆忙，否则可能“干扰金融市场和经济，最终可能适得其反”。乔治说，“我是属于倾向更稳健、更慢（行动）这个阵营的，这样做可以开始观察（货币政策行动）滞后会怎样发挥效果。现在（行动）还没有在实体经济体内全面发挥影响。”“大幅调整政策利率可能增加未来行动的不确定性。”“我认为，在市场波动加剧的时候，尽量减少政策的不确定性是特别重要的。”鸽派戴利：利率达到4.5%至5%“是最有可能的结果”同在周五，鸽派倾向的美联储官员、2024年拥有FOMC会议投票权的旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary Daly）表示，虽然有了一些经济降温的迹象，但她“非常支持”继续加息，让利率处于限制经济的水平。戴利评价，最近公布的CPI通胀数据“非常令人失望”，她预计，未来几个月美联储会继续加息，并在利率升高后保持在那个水平戴利称，如果经济有需要，美联储也不会一条道走到黑、不是不能转向，然而，通过加息让政策利率达到4.5%至5%“是最有可能的结果”，然后联储会计划让利率“在那个水平保持一段时间”。也是在周五，任内永久拥有FOMC投票权的美联储理事库克（Lisa 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