ZhiyingHu的个人主页 - 老虎社区

ZhiyingHu

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IP属地：北京

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2025-04-03

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 是支最烂的股，大失所望

2025-07-25

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 怎么长不起来？

2025-03-13

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 每天都和特斯拉比肩

2025-10-30

$微软(MSFT)$ 业绩高于预期，怎么下跌这么多？

2025-08-01

$苹果(AAPL)$ 苹果是科技股比较弱的

2025-05-29

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 散户炒面不好的股

2025-11-21

$微软(MSFT)$ 这谷出了什么大错，下行的这样多？

2025-05-22

$苹果(AAPL)$ 苹果失去主导地位了吗？

2025-04-03

别乱发了，笑话，跌烂了

财报前瞻 | 宏观扰动加剧！头部银行一季度财报能否振奋人心

2025-02-14

$微软(MSFT)$ 近一年没有向样的涨价，每天都在画饼，是科技公司比较差的

2025-08-08

$微软(MSFT)$ 微软这二天一直向下

2025-12-09

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 谷歌就是这样，打不完官司，罚不完的款。

2025-06-12

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 涨3天不够一天跌的

2025-12-10

$微软(MSFT)$ 股民对微软不理解，不赞成

2025-11-28

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 谷歌这几天就这个剧本，是配合机构作多

2025-09-18

$微软(MSFT)$ 这几天应坚定看多谷歌

2025-09-18

$微软(MSFT)$ 这段表现一般

2025-06-02

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 这股没好3天，天天有利空

2025-03-31

$微软(MSFT)$ 微软一直是抗跌.近一年是领跌。

2025-03-27

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 表现很差

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一有集资就不看好","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$ 一有集资就不看好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511825478737968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511430540325824,"gmtCreate":1765888011783,"gmtModify":1765888014464,"author":{"id":"3518227187146437","authorId":"3518227187146437","name":"ZhiyingHu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518227187146437","idStr":"3518227187146437"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"看股票涨跌，财报后一直向下走。","listText":"看股票涨跌，财报后一直向下走。","text":"看股票涨跌，财报后一直向下走。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511430540325824","repostId":"2591606600","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2591606600","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765868400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2591606600?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-16 15:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"微软已摆脱OpenAI依赖，Copilot才是华尔街看好走向5万亿市值的“王牌”！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2591606600","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP注意到，微软与OpenAI或许仍然深度交织，但华尔街认为，真正的故事在于前者已开始独自在蓬勃发展的AI世界中起舞。尽管微软驶向5万亿美元的列车正稳步前行，但其最关键乘客仍是OpenAI。OpenAI的弗里尔指出，该公司\"确实在很大程度上是由微软资助的\"。分析师们对于OpenAI在微软当前投资论点中的重要性看法不一。财务数据表明，独立的Azure AI业务，而非OpenAI的股权，才是价值的关键驱动力。微软于11月宣布向Anthropic承诺投资50亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月16日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>与OpenAI或许仍然深度交织，但华尔街认为，真正的故事在于前者已开始独自在蓬勃发展的AI世界中起舞。</p><p>而这可能使这家拥有50年历史的科技巨头——以其Windows操作系统、Azure云服务以及近期推出的Copilot聊天机器人而闻名——在未来十年内为其市值增添数万亿美元，占据有利地位。</p><p>&#34;随着人工智能革命进入下一个增长阶段，微软的市值将在2026年达到5万亿美元，&#34;Wedbush科技分析师丹·艾夫斯表示。微软目前的市值：3.59万亿美元。</p><p>尽管微软驶向5万亿美元的列车正稳步前行，但其最关键乘客仍是OpenAI。</p><p>&#34;我们看到……整个生态系统真正开始向我们靠拢，帮助我们创造这个未来，&#34;OpenAI首席财务官莎拉·弗里尔表示。</p><p>她补充说，为了满足高计算需求——她称此为驱动下一个AI时代的&#34;基石&#34;，公司很可能会继续与第三方公司合作——暗示微软。</p><p>&#34;我为微软进行这些投资感到激动，&#34;联合创始人比尔·盖茨此前告诉媒体，他指出虽然AI正以&#34;飞速&#34;增长，但那里仍然存在&#34;巨大的不确定性&#34;。</p><p>盖茨预计这项新兴技术将在未来三到五年内变得&#34;极其强大&#34;，并补充说在AI军备竞赛中，微软显然是一个&#34;竞争者&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"id_1181708123\">微软与OpenAI的关系起始</h2><p>这段深厚的关系始于2019年，当时微软向山姆·奥特曼领导的OpenAI进行了10亿美元的初始投资——这是对可能彻底改变计算和云服务未来的下一代人工智能的一次豪赌。</p><p>这项投资让微软优先获得了尖端AI模型，这是相对于竞争对手科技巨头的一个关键优势。作为回报，OpenAI获得了训练和部署AI工具所需的计算能力、基础设施和分发渠道，以及长期资金和稳定性。</p><p>对微软而言，这笔交易从来不只是财务投资——它是一场赌博，赌AI将成为下一个主要的平台变革，一个可能重新定义行业的变革，就像Windows曾经对个人计算机所做的那样。自那时起，微软已向OpenAI投资了约130亿美元——CEO纳德拉最近确认了这一数字。</p><p>自那次初始投资以来，微软就一直与OpenAI相提并论。</p><p>OpenAI的弗里尔指出，该公司&#34;确实在很大程度上是由微软资助的&#34;。</p><p>即使OpenAI现在估值5000亿美元，且在10月下旬修订合作关系后微软持有约27% 的股份，专家们表示，微软的未来并不由其在这家奥特曼称为&#34;史上最大非营利组织&#34;的公司中的股份所定义。</p><p>这笔股份可能为微软买到了一张进入AI盛宴的门票——但该公司真正的策略是拥有所有其他科技巨头在其上起舞的舞台。</p><h2 id=\"id_3163863853\">超越OpenAI的微软</h2><p>微软的AI优势源于其如何将AI技术贯穿于其技术的每一层——从Azure和Office，到开发者工具、企业软件，再到Bing和Edge等消费产品。</p><p>这种深度融合最明显的体现是Copilot，微软的一套生成式人工智能助手，应用于Microsoft 365等生产力应用、Windows等操作系统以及GitHub Copilot等工作流程中。</p><p>软件开发平台Sexton.AI的创始人洛根·布朗表示，微软能够像Copilot这样的AI工具整合到其整个产品套件中，这使其在AI领域占据了独特的地位。</p><p>&#34;微软在其产品套件中拥有如此主导的地位，他们将能够整合，并在那种意义上成为一个‘Copilot’。&#34;她指出，&#34;大多数人都在租用&#34;微软的基础设施。</p><p>微软一位发言人表示，随着公司旨在分得AI市场的一大块蛋糕，它正在关注2026年的七大关键趋势，包括增强人类能力、为智能体配备更完善的保障措施，以及缩小健康差距。</p><p>微软内部的AI创新速度及其庞大的规模对投资者至关重要，他们越来越多地认为微软对OpenAI的依赖正在减轻而非增加，即使双方的合作关系在财务和技术上仍然重要。</p><p>&#34;从商业战略的角度来看，感觉像是微软正在继续依赖一个非常非常重要的合作伙伴，但同时也在内部开发自己的AI来对冲风险，&#34;纽约大学斯特恩商学院教授罗伯特·西曼斯表示。</p><p>他补充说，这种&#34;对冲&#34;使微软能够利用内部和外部的资源，为其&#34;庞大的客户群&#34;提供量身定制的AI解决方案。</p><p>分析师们对于OpenAI在微软当前投资论点中的重要性看法不一。</p><p>RBC分析师里希·贾卢里亚认为，微软因其早期对OpenAI的押注，在AI领域仍享有&#34;多年的领先优势&#34;，这使其获得了知识产权(IP)权利、优先定价和研究访问权限，帮助其在AI竞赛中早早地占领了阵地。</p><p>OpenAI带来的财务收益也比一些投资者假设的更为有限。</p><p>尽管持有27%的股份，微软在其利润表中并不确认OpenAI的盈利——仅确认其亏损份额。唯一有意义的收益是股份价值的上升，但只有等到OpenAI上市或大幅<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">盈利时</a>这才会体现。这两者都还是未知数。</p><p>DA Davidson分析师吉尔·卢里亚估计，在微软Azure的总收入中，只有17% 来自AI工作负载。更重要的是，他估计直接与转售OpenAI模型相关的收入仅占这部分的6%，而大约75% 来自Azure AI，即微软自有的基础设施和服务，&#34;考虑到OpenAI正在帮助微软在其他地方创造收入，&#34;据卢里亚所说。</p><p>财务数据表明，独立的Azure AI业务，而非OpenAI的股权，才是价值的关键驱动力。</p><h2 id=\"id_1048820331\">合作松绑</h2><p>双方修订后的合作关系旨在最终松绑——对双方都有利。微软失去了&#34;优先购买权&#34;，但保留了到2032年的长期知识产权，包括通用人工智能(AGI)权利，并获得了有利的应用程序编程接口(API)经济条款。这至关重要，因为每次企业应用调用OpenAI的API时，微软都会获得收入。</p><p>OpenAI最终的IPO可能会改变双方之间的力量平衡，但分析师们并不认为这会实质性削弱微软。</p><p>与此同时，新协议允许双方进行多元化发展。OpenAI可以寻求与其他云提供商达成交易——它已经这样做了，通过与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>(ORCL.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>(AMD.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)等公司的一系列合作。</p><p>与此同时，微软可以自由地深化与其他模型提供商的合作，最引人注目的是Anthropic。微软于11月宣布向Anthropic承诺投资50亿美元。至关重要的是，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元的Azure计算容量，为微软锁定了巨大的未来收入。最近，微软表示将在未来四年内向印度投资175亿美元，以加快其AI路线图。</p><p>KeyBanc分析师杰克逊·阿德尔表示，他认为这种转变是微软方面&#34;寻求独立&#34;之举，而非对冲。&#34;向外寻求合作没问题，这是一个很好的多元化策略，&#34;他说。&#34;我只是不认为这有太大影响，因为他们仍在与最好的伙伴(OpenAI)合作。&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/278ac409cce430bf3141f9b73b8ceb8f\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"567\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1754960609\">未来布局</h2><p>专家表示，微软未来十年的终极优势在于其AI布局的广度。</p><p>RBC的贾卢里亚指出了Azure的训练和推理工作负载，如面向开发者的GitHub Copilot以及通过Office融入AI的企业应用。即使是微软的LinkedIn及其动视暴雪游戏部门，也蕴含着AI驱动的盈利潜力。</p><p>&#34;没有其他公司拥有这样的产品组合，&#34;他说。目前，贾卢里亚给予微软买入评级，目标价为640美元。数据显示华尔街普遍看好微软。</p><p>分析师认为，微软下一个主要的增长点可能是智能体AI——能够执行多步工作流程的AI智能体。他们预计微软将与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>并驾齐驱，成为顶级参与者。</p><p>虽然Copilot的采用仍处于早期阶段，但贾卢里亚表示，随着AI功能更深入地融入日常工作流程，采用率可能会&#34;缓慢而稳定地&#34;增长。&#34;Office将成为入口，&#34;他表示。</p><h2 id=\"id_3396692018\">AI泡沫论未消</h2><p>这种乐观情绪并未消除微软在AI方面面临的风险。第一大风险是过度建设。</p><p>微软此前曾表示，到2025财年，它在AI基础设施上的支出有望达到800亿美元。与此同时，据报道，一项与OpenAI合作的名为&#34;星际之门&#34;的单独大型项目，初始投资1000亿美元，正处于早期规划阶段。后续报道称，该项目现在是一个多方合资企业，涉及微软、OpenAI以及软银、甲骨文(ORCL.US)、Metagenomi(MGX.US)等其他参与者，计划到2029年最终投资高达5000亿美元。</p><p>尽管如此，投资者对微软的投资速度持谨慎态度。</p><p>如果AI需求放缓，或者竞争模型在性能上显著超越GPT，阿德尔警告说，微软可能会看起来像是在&#34;只需要普锐斯时却买了一辆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">法拉利</a>&#34;。</p><p>第二个主要风险是市场情绪。&#34;如果AI未能兑现承诺，&#34;阿德尔表示，&#34;微软将陷入负面的AI交易情绪中，&#34;即使其基本面仍然强劲。</p><p>然而，大多数分析师都同意，该公司仍然是这十年中最强的AI概念股之一。OpenAI给了微软一个领先优势，但其不断扩大的AI合作伙伴网络赋予了该公司不依赖于任何单一模型的持久力。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n微软已摆脱OpenAI依赖，Copilot才是华尔街看好走向5万亿市值的“王牌”！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-16 15:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382018.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月16日，微软与OpenAI或许仍然深度交织，但华尔街认为，真正的故事在于前者已开始独自在蓬勃发展的AI世界中起舞。而这可能使这家拥有50年历史的科技巨头——以其Windows操作系统、Azure云服务以及近期推出的Copilot聊天机器人而闻名——在未来十年内为其市值增添数万亿美元，占据有利地位。\"随着人工智能革命进入下一个增长阶段，微软的市值将在2026年达到5万亿美元，\"Wedbush...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382018.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{"LU1037948897.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2360108059.USD":"BGF CIRCULAR ECONOMY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0210533765.USD":"JPM 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382018.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2591606600","content_text":"12月16日，微软与OpenAI或许仍然深度交织，但华尔街认为，真正的故事在于前者已开始独自在蓬勃发展的AI世界中起舞。而这可能使这家拥有50年历史的科技巨头——以其Windows操作系统、Azure云服务以及近期推出的Copilot聊天机器人而闻名——在未来十年内为其市值增添数万亿美元，占据有利地位。\"随着人工智能革命进入下一个增长阶段，微软的市值将在2026年达到5万亿美元，\"Wedbush科技分析师丹·艾夫斯表示。微软目前的市值：3.59万亿美元。尽管微软驶向5万亿美元的列车正稳步前行，但其最关键乘客仍是OpenAI。\"我们看到……整个生态系统真正开始向我们靠拢，帮助我们创造这个未来，\"OpenAI首席财务官莎拉·弗里尔表示。她补充说，为了满足高计算需求——她称此为驱动下一个AI时代的\"基石\"，公司很可能会继续与第三方公司合作——暗示微软。\"我为微软进行这些投资感到激动，\"联合创始人比尔·盖茨此前告诉媒体，他指出虽然AI正以\"飞速\"增长，但那里仍然存在\"巨大的不确定性\"。盖茨预计这项新兴技术将在未来三到五年内变得\"极其强大\"，并补充说在AI军备竞赛中，微软显然是一个\"竞争者\"。微软与OpenAI的关系起始这段深厚的关系始于2019年，当时微软向山姆·奥特曼领导的OpenAI进行了10亿美元的初始投资——这是对可能彻底改变计算和云服务未来的下一代人工智能的一次豪赌。这项投资让微软优先获得了尖端AI模型，这是相对于竞争对手科技巨头的一个关键优势。作为回报，OpenAI获得了训练和部署AI工具所需的计算能力、基础设施和分发渠道，以及长期资金和稳定性。对微软而言，这笔交易从来不只是财务投资——它是一场赌博，赌AI将成为下一个主要的平台变革，一个可能重新定义行业的变革，就像Windows曾经对个人计算机所做的那样。自那时起，微软已向OpenAI投资了约130亿美元——CEO纳德拉最近确认了这一数字。自那次初始投资以来，微软就一直与OpenAI相提并论。OpenAI的弗里尔指出，该公司\"确实在很大程度上是由微软资助的\"。即使OpenAI现在估值5000亿美元，且在10月下旬修订合作关系后微软持有约27% 的股份，专家们表示，微软的未来并不由其在这家奥特曼称为\"史上最大非营利组织\"的公司中的股份所定义。这笔股份可能为微软买到了一张进入AI盛宴的门票——但该公司真正的策略是拥有所有其他科技巨头在其上起舞的舞台。超越OpenAI的微软微软的AI优势源于其如何将AI技术贯穿于其技术的每一层——从Azure和Office，到开发者工具、企业软件，再到Bing和Edge等消费产品。这种深度融合最明显的体现是Copilot，微软的一套生成式人工智能助手，应用于Microsoft 365等生产力应用、Windows等操作系统以及GitHub Copilot等工作流程中。软件开发平台Sexton.AI的创始人洛根·布朗表示，微软能够像Copilot这样的AI工具整合到其整个产品套件中，这使其在AI领域占据了独特的地位。\"微软在其产品套件中拥有如此主导的地位，他们将能够整合，并在那种意义上成为一个‘Copilot’。\"她指出，\"大多数人都在租用\"微软的基础设施。微软一位发言人表示，随着公司旨在分得AI市场的一大块蛋糕，它正在关注2026年的七大关键趋势，包括增强人类能力、为智能体配备更完善的保障措施，以及缩小健康差距。微软内部的AI创新速度及其庞大的规模对投资者至关重要，他们越来越多地认为微软对OpenAI的依赖正在减轻而非增加，即使双方的合作关系在财务和技术上仍然重要。\"从商业战略的角度来看，感觉像是微软正在继续依赖一个非常非常重要的合作伙伴，但同时也在内部开发自己的AI来对冲风险，\"纽约大学斯特恩商学院教授罗伯特·西曼斯表示。他补充说，这种\"对冲\"使微软能够利用内部和外部的资源，为其\"庞大的客户群\"提供量身定制的AI解决方案。分析师们对于OpenAI在微软当前投资论点中的重要性看法不一。RBC分析师里希·贾卢里亚认为，微软因其早期对OpenAI的押注，在AI领域仍享有\"多年的领先优势\"，这使其获得了知识产权(IP)权利、优先定价和研究访问权限，帮助其在AI竞赛中早早地占领了阵地。OpenAI带来的财务收益也比一些投资者假设的更为有限。尽管持有27%的股份，微软在其利润表中并不确认OpenAI的盈利——仅确认其亏损份额。唯一有意义的收益是股份价值的上升，但只有等到OpenAI上市或大幅盈利时这才会体现。这两者都还是未知数。DA Davidson分析师吉尔·卢里亚估计，在微软Azure的总收入中，只有17% 来自AI工作负载。更重要的是，他估计直接与转售OpenAI模型相关的收入仅占这部分的6%，而大约75% 来自Azure AI，即微软自有的基础设施和服务，\"考虑到OpenAI正在帮助微软在其他地方创造收入，\"据卢里亚所说。财务数据表明，独立的Azure AI业务，而非OpenAI的股权，才是价值的关键驱动力。合作松绑双方修订后的合作关系旨在最终松绑——对双方都有利。微软失去了\"优先购买权\"，但保留了到2032年的长期知识产权，包括通用人工智能(AGI)权利，并获得了有利的应用程序编程接口(API)经济条款。这至关重要，因为每次企业应用调用OpenAI的API时，微软都会获得收入。OpenAI最终的IPO可能会改变双方之间的力量平衡，但分析师们并不认为这会实质性削弱微软。与此同时，新协议允许双方进行多元化发展。OpenAI可以寻求与其他云提供商达成交易——它已经这样做了，通过与甲骨文(ORCL.US)、AMD(AMD.US)、三星和英伟达(NVDA.US)等公司的一系列合作。与此同时，微软可以自由地深化与其他模型提供商的合作，最引人注目的是Anthropic。微软于11月宣布向Anthropic承诺投资50亿美元。至关重要的是，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元的Azure计算容量，为微软锁定了巨大的未来收入。最近，微软表示将在未来四年内向印度投资175亿美元，以加快其AI路线图。KeyBanc分析师杰克逊·阿德尔表示，他认为这种转变是微软方面\"寻求独立\"之举，而非对冲。\"向外寻求合作没问题，这是一个很好的多元化策略，\"他说。\"我只是不认为这有太大影响，因为他们仍在与最好的伙伴(OpenAI)合作。\"未来布局专家表示，微软未来十年的终极优势在于其AI布局的广度。RBC的贾卢里亚指出了Azure的训练和推理工作负载，如面向开发者的GitHub Copilot以及通过Office融入AI的企业应用。即使是微软的LinkedIn及其动视暴雪游戏部门，也蕴含着AI驱动的盈利潜力。\"没有其他公司拥有这样的产品组合，\"他说。目前，贾卢里亚给予微软买入评级，目标价为640美元。数据显示华尔街普遍看好微软。分析师认为，微软下一个主要的增长点可能是智能体AI——能够执行多步工作流程的AI智能体。他们预计微软将与ServiceNow和Salesforce并驾齐驱，成为顶级参与者。虽然Copilot的采用仍处于早期阶段，但贾卢里亚表示，随着AI功能更深入地融入日常工作流程，采用率可能会\"缓慢而稳定地\"增长。\"Office将成为入口，\"他表示。AI泡沫论未消这种乐观情绪并未消除微软在AI方面面临的风险。第一大风险是过度建设。微软此前曾表示，到2025财年，它在AI基础设施上的支出有望达到800亿美元。与此同时，据报道，一项与OpenAI合作的名为\"星际之门\"的单独大型项目，初始投资1000亿美元，正处于早期规划阶段。后续报道称，该项目现在是一个多方合资企业，涉及微软、OpenAI以及软银、甲骨文(ORCL.US)、Metagenomi(MGX.US)等其他参与者，计划到2029年最终投资高达5000亿美元。尽管如此，投资者对微软的投资速度持谨慎态度。如果AI需求放缓，或者竞争模型在性能上显著超越GPT，阿德尔警告说，微软可能会看起来像是在\"只需要普锐斯时却买了一辆法拉利\"。第二个主要风险是市场情绪。\"如果AI未能兑现承诺，\"阿德尔表示，\"微软将陷入负面的AI交易情绪中，\"即使其基本面仍然强劲。然而，大多数分析师都同意，该公司仍然是这十年中最强的AI概念股之一。OpenAI给了微软一个领先优势，但其不断扩大的AI合作伙伴网络赋予了该公司不依赖于任何单一模型的持久力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509307341648600,"gmtCreate":1765380647824,"gmtModify":1765380649934,"author":{"id":"3518227187146437","authorId":"3518227187146437","name":"ZhiyingHu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518227187146437","idStr":"3518227187146437"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$&nbsp;</a> 全涨只有微软大跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$&nbsp;</a> 全涨只有微软大跌","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ 全涨只有微软大跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509307341648600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509257806230256,"gmtCreate":1765368556194,"gmtModify":1765368558654,"author":{"id":"3518227187146437","authorId":"3518227187146437","name":"ZhiyingHu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518227187146437","idStr":"3518227187146437"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不看好投资","listText":"不看好投资","text":"不看好投资","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509257806230256","repostId":"2590321452","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2590321452","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1765313714,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2590321452?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-10 04:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"微软宣布230亿美元AI投资：175亿美元押注印度，加拿大投资同步扩张","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2590321452","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"175亿美元成为微软在亚洲规模最大的一笔投资，用于建设印度的AI基础设施。微软还计划未来两年向加拿大新增投资超过75亿加元，在加AI总投资规模升至190亿加元，投资带来的新增产能将明年下半年开始上线。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>周二公布了约230亿美元的新增人工智能（AI）投资计划，其中175亿美元资金将投向印度，用于建设当地的人工智能基础设施。分析称，随着微软进一步加码这一全球增长最快的数字市场之一，该公司对印度的战略押注明显加深，这也是微软在亚洲规模最大的一笔投资。</p><p>同日，微软也宣布未来两年将在加拿大投资超过75亿加元（约合54.2亿美元），让该公司2023至2027年在加拿大的AI总投资规模达到190亿加元（约137亿美元）。</p><p>微软股价周二尾盘上涨约0.05%，报491.26美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e059f8cfb97b1171f7cb3e89339c1eec\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"586\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2632306483\">加码押注印度</h2><p>微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉在新德里会见印度总理莫迪后，通过X平台发布了这一投资消息。纳德拉表示，微软将通过这笔投资，帮助印度建设面向AI未来所需的“基础设施、技能体系和主权能力”。</p><p>纳德拉此次对印度进行为期三天的访问，行程包括与政策制定者会面，并参加在印度科技中心班加罗尔和金融中心孟买举行的多场AI相关活动。</p><p>微软在声明中表示：</p><blockquote><p>“微软与印度正站在共同设立新标杆的起点上，未来十年将推动印度从数字公共基础设施迈向AI公共基础设施的跨越式发展。”</p></blockquote><p>印度已制定雄心勃勃的目标，希望成为全球领先的AI和半导体制造中心。印度政府推出了一系列财政激励措施，旨在吸引全球芯片制造商和大型科技公司。分析认为，这一宣布凸显出全球主要科技公司在印度加速布局的竞争正在升温。印度已成为全球增长最快的数字市场之一。</p><p>今年10月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>表示，未来五年将在印度投资150亿美元，在当地设立该公司首个AI枢纽。该中心位于印度南部城市维沙卡帕特南，将成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>全球规模最大的AI枢纽之一。</p><p>这项投资是在微软今年早些时候宣布的30亿美元投资基础上的进一步加码，当时微软表示，将在未来两年内投入30亿美元，用于建设云计算和AI基础设施、新数据中心，并提升劳动力技能。该计划将使微软在印度拥有其全球最大的云计算布局之一，首座新数据中心预计将在2026年年中投入使用。</p><p>微软在印度已有30多年的运营历史，目前在当地雇佣了超过22000名员工，并持续扩大云计算和数据中心容量，以支持更高端的计算需求。</p><h2 id=\"id_2871113080\">加拿大新增产能明年下半年开始上线</h2><p>微软周二早些时候还表示，未来两年将在加拿大投资超过75亿加元。微软称，上述投资带来的新增产能将从2026年下半年开始逐步上线。公司补充称，2023年至2027年期间，其在加拿大的总投资规模预计将达到190亿加元。</p><p>微软还表示，将在加拿大扩展其Azure Local云服务，并与加拿大AI初创公司Cohere合作，在Azure平台上提供该公司的先进AI模型。</p><p>此外，微软还将在加拿大设立一个专门的“威胁情报中心”，重点聚焦网络安全防护和AI安全研究，并与加拿大政府及立法机构合作，追踪威胁行为者和有组织犯罪活动。</p><p>目前，微软在加拿大11个城市共雇佣了5300多名员工。</p><p>上个月，微软宣布计划在葡萄牙投资100亿美元建设AI基础设施，同时还将在阿联酋投资150亿美元。</p><p>随着公司估值快速攀升以及一系列交叉投资不断加深，投资者对AI是否存在泡沫的担忧升温，大型科技公司正面临越来越大的压力，需要证明其在AI领域的大规模投入正在带来实际回报。</p><p>微软在10月公布的财年第一季度资本支出创下近350亿美元的历史新高，并警告称，今年支出仍将继续上升。公司预计，至少在当前财年结束、即2026年6月之前，算力供应仍将处于受限状态。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n微软宣布230亿美元AI投资：175亿美元押注印度，加拿大投资同步扩张\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-10 04:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761049><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>微软周二公布了约230亿美元的新增人工智能（AI）投资计划，其中175亿美元资金将投向印度，用于建设当地的人工智能基础设施。分析称，随着微软进一步加码这一全球增长最快的数字市场之一，该公司对印度的战略押注明显加深，这也是微软在亚洲规模最大的一笔投资。同日，微软也宣布未来两年将在加拿大投资超过75亿加元（约合54.2亿美元），让该公司2023至2027年在加拿大的AI总投资规模达到190亿加元（约...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761049\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{"LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> 苹果失去主导地位了吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> 苹果失去主导地位了吗？","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 苹果失去主导地位了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437808561295488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":420497526063344,"gmtCreate":1743691741092,"gmtModify":1743691742218,"author":{"id":"3518227187146437","authorId":"3518227187146437","name":"ZhiyingHu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518227187146437","idStr":"3518227187146437"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别乱发了，笑话，跌烂了","listText":"别乱发了，笑话，跌烂了","text":"别乱发了，笑话，跌烂了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/420497526063344","repostId":"1165298285","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165298285","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1743775201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165298285?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-04-04 22:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 宏观扰动加剧！头部银行一季度财报能否振奋人心","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165298285","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，大小摩、富国银行率先于4月11日放出一季度财报，高盛将于4月14日（预计）公布，而花旗集团和美国银行预计于4月15日公布。财报预测交易收入可能创新高，投行业务受益于债券发行回暖。富国银行作为全美最大住房抵押贷款银行，对短期利率敏感度较高。主要风险来自商业地产贷款不良率上升和存款成本增加，财报显示财富管理业务连续7个季度增长，抵消了传统信贷放缓的影响。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，大小摩、富国银行率先于4月11日放出一季度财报，高盛将于4月14日（预计）公布，而花旗集团和美国银行预计于4月15日公布。市场对于六大银行的看法出现分化，其中摩根大通和高盛最有可能超越预期。</p><p>有投行分析表示：尽管市场目前对银行净利息收入(NII)增长、交易收入及投行业务复苏和资本回报仍存疑虑。但仍看好美国银行、花旗和富国银行，这些银行具备稳健的基本面，同时在贷款增长、费用收入和资本回报方面具有较大潜在上行空间。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f13f4f2fb44f55e4d83407600cbfff2f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1657\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_2591218437\">摩根士丹利</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，摩根士丹利第一季度营收预计167.6亿美元，增长10.7%；调整后净利润预计36.7亿美元，增长12%；调整后EPS预计2.29美元，增长13%。</p><p>作为顶级投行，摩根士丹利优势在并购咨询和财富管理（管理资产超1.5万亿美元）。科技投行受益于AI芯片需求（如台积电），亚洲市场受中国经济复苏带动。但美国关税政策可能抑制跨境交易，半导体周期波动影响短期投行业务。机构预测其收入将受科技企业资本开支支撑，但需关注关税实际冲击。</p><h3 id=\"id_2338155781\">摩根大通</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，摩根大通第一季度营收预计为444.5亿美元，调整后净利润预计为128.5亿美元，同比下降5.79%，调整后EPS预计为4.58美元，同比下降1%。</p><p>摩根大通凭借全球最大的资产规模和全牌照优势，在交易业务、跨境投融资领域领先。目前利率波动将刺激部分客户的对冲需求，并且东南亚市场增长显著。但需警惕美联储降息推迟对于利息收入的冲击，以及关税政策对跨国企业融资的影响。财报预测交易收入可能创新高，投行业务受益于债券发行回暖。</p><h3 id=\"id_869819034\">富国银行</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，富国银行第一季度营收预计208亿美元，同比下降0.3%；调整后净利润41.4亿美元，同比下降3.93%，调整后EPS 1.24美元，同比下降1.9%。</p><p>富国银行作为全美最大住房抵押贷款银行，对短期利率敏感度较高。受贷款增长乏力制约，商业地产敞口较高，但资本效率优于同业，有机构预测其一季度可能是业绩低点。</p><h3 id=\"id_1810692354\">高盛</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，高盛第一季度营收预计为149.7亿美元，增长5%；调整后净利润预计为41亿美元，增长4%；调整后EPS预计为12.48美元，增长8%。</p><p>高盛作为全球并购和复杂交易专家，大宗商品与利率衍生品业务回暖驱动增长。资本回购计划可能提升股东回报，但受制于美联储降息节奏和关税抑制跨境交易且亚洲业务受中国增速预测下调影响存在一定分歧。</p><h3 id=\"id_1175739257\">花旗</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，花旗第一季度营收预计213.4亿美元，增长1%；调整后净利润预计35.5亿美元，增长5%；调整后EPS预计1.9美元，增长9%。</p><p>花旗的优势在于全球跨境金融服务领先，但投行市场份额落后头部对手。增长依赖手续费收入提升和成本削减，目前监管的放松可能将释放部分资本用于回购。但目前风险集中在商业地产贷款质量和投行业务复苏缓慢，财报显示固收交易收入下降但证券服务创新高。</p><h3 id=\"id_1879731340\">美国银行</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，美银第一季度营收预计为270.7亿美元，增长4%；调整后净利润预计为64.5亿美元，增长5%；调整后EPS预计为0.8美元，增长8%。</p><p>美国银行面临利率波动与消费信贷增长的分化局面，高利率环境虽利好其利息收入，但未来降息可能压缩利润空间。作为全美最大银行，其零售业务、投行和财富管理均处于行业前三，固定利率贷款占比高使得降息时具备重定价优势。主要风险来自商业地产贷款不良率上升和存款成本增加，财报显示财富管理业务连续7个季度增长，抵消了传统信贷放缓的影响。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 宏观扰动加剧！头部银行一季度财报能否振奋人心</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 宏观扰动加剧！头部银行一季度财报能否振奋人心\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-04-04 22:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，大小摩、富国银行率先于4月11日放出一季度财报，高盛将于4月14日（预计）公布，而花旗集团和美国银行预计于4月15日公布。市场对于六大银行的看法出现分化，其中摩根大通和高盛最有可能超越预期。</p><p>有投行分析表示：尽管市场目前对银行净利息收入(NII)增长、交易收入及投行业务复苏和资本回报仍存疑虑。但仍看好美国银行、花旗和富国银行，这些银行具备稳健的基本面，同时在贷款增长、费用收入和资本回报方面具有较大潜在上行空间。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f13f4f2fb44f55e4d83407600cbfff2f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1657\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_2591218437\">摩根士丹利</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，摩根士丹利第一季度营收预计167.6亿美元，增长10.7%；调整后净利润预计36.7亿美元，增长12%；调整后EPS预计2.29美元，增长13%。</p><p>作为顶级投行，摩根士丹利优势在并购咨询和财富管理（管理资产超1.5万亿美元）。科技投行受益于AI芯片需求（如台积电），亚洲市场受中国经济复苏带动。但美国关税政策可能抑制跨境交易，半导体周期波动影响短期投行业务。机构预测其收入将受科技企业资本开支支撑，但需关注关税实际冲击。</p><h3 id=\"id_2338155781\">摩根大通</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，摩根大通第一季度营收预计为444.5亿美元，调整后净利润预计为128.5亿美元，同比下降5.79%，调整后EPS预计为4.58美元，同比下降1%。</p><p>摩根大通凭借全球最大的资产规模和全牌照优势，在交易业务、跨境投融资领域领先。目前利率波动将刺激部分客户的对冲需求，并且东南亚市场增长显著。但需警惕美联储降息推迟对于利息收入的冲击，以及关税政策对跨国企业融资的影响。财报预测交易收入可能创新高，投行业务受益于债券发行回暖。</p><h3 id=\"id_869819034\">富国银行</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，富国银行第一季度营收预计208亿美元，同比下降0.3%；调整后净利润41.4亿美元，同比下降3.93%，调整后EPS 1.24美元，同比下降1.9%。</p><p>富国银行作为全美最大住房抵押贷款银行，对短期利率敏感度较高。受贷款增长乏力制约，商业地产敞口较高，但资本效率优于同业，有机构预测其一季度可能是业绩低点。</p><h3 id=\"id_1810692354\">高盛</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，高盛第一季度营收预计为149.7亿美元，增长5%；调整后净利润预计为41亿美元，增长4%；调整后EPS预计为12.48美元，增长8%。</p><p>高盛作为全球并购和复杂交易专家，大宗商品与利率衍生品业务回暖驱动增长。资本回购计划可能提升股东回报，但受制于美联储降息节奏和关税抑制跨境交易且亚洲业务受中国增速预测下调影响存在一定分歧。</p><h3 id=\"id_1175739257\">花旗</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，花旗第一季度营收预计213.4亿美元，增长1%；调整后净利润预计35.5亿美元，增长5%；调整后EPS预计1.9美元，增长9%。</p><p>花旗的优势在于全球跨境金融服务领先，但投行市场份额落后头部对手。增长依赖手续费收入提升和成本削减，目前监管的放松可能将释放部分资本用于回购。但目前风险集中在商业地产贷款质量和投行业务复苏缓慢，财报显示固收交易收入下降但证券服务创新高。</p><h3 id=\"id_1879731340\">美国银行</h3><p>按照彭博一致预期，美银第一季度营收预计为270.7亿美元，增长4%；调整后净利润预计为64.5亿美元，增长5%；调整后EPS预计为0.8美元，增长8%。</p><p>美国银行面临利率波动与消费信贷增长的分化局面，高利率环境虽利好其利息收入，但未来降息可能压缩利润空间。作为全美最大银行，其零售业务、投行和财富管理均处于行业前三，固定利率贷款占比高使得降息时具备重定价优势。主要风险来自商业地产贷款不良率上升和存款成本增加，财报显示财富管理业务连续7个季度增长，抵消了传统信贷放缓的影响。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e209abe6d262c8cd7d31d49ae85e519","relate_stocks":{"C":"花旗","JPM":"摩根大通","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165298285","content_text":"在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，大小摩、富国银行率先于4月11日放出一季度财报，高盛将于4月14日（预计）公布，而花旗集团和美国银行预计于4月15日公布。市场对于六大银行的看法出现分化，其中摩根大通和高盛最有可能超越预期。有投行分析表示：尽管市场目前对银行净利息收入(NII)增长、交易收入及投行业务复苏和资本回报仍存疑虑。但仍看好美国银行、花旗和富国银行，这些银行具备稳健的基本面，同时在贷款增长、费用收入和资本回报方面具有较大潜在上行空间。摩根士丹利按照彭博一致预期，摩根士丹利第一季度营收预计167.6亿美元，增长10.7%；调整后净利润预计36.7亿美元，增长12%；调整后EPS预计2.29美元，增长13%。作为顶级投行，摩根士丹利优势在并购咨询和财富管理（管理资产超1.5万亿美元）。科技投行受益于AI芯片需求（如台积电），亚洲市场受中国经济复苏带动。但美国关税政策可能抑制跨境交易，半导体周期波动影响短期投行业务。机构预测其收入将受科技企业资本开支支撑，但需关注关税实际冲击。摩根大通按照彭博一致预期，摩根大通第一季度营收预计为444.5亿美元，调整后净利润预计为128.5亿美元，同比下降5.79%，调整后EPS预计为4.58美元，同比下降1%。摩根大通凭借全球最大的资产规模和全牌照优势，在交易业务、跨境投融资领域领先。目前利率波动将刺激部分客户的对冲需求，并且东南亚市场增长显著。但需警惕美联储降息推迟对于利息收入的冲击，以及关税政策对跨国企业融资的影响。财报预测交易收入可能创新高，投行业务受益于债券发行回暖。富国银行按照彭博一致预期，富国银行第一季度营收预计208亿美元，同比下降0.3%；调整后净利润41.4亿美元，同比下降3.93%，调整后EPS 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