一路富甲爽到爆的个人主页 - 老虎社区

一路富甲爽到爆

一路富甲爽到爆

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一路富甲爽到爆

07-27

$长鑫科技(688825)$ 坚决不接盘，好不好过几天会像SpaceX一样下跌

一路富甲爽到爆

07-20

跟业绩已经没有关系了吧

港股异动 | 中信证券(06030)涨近4% 预期中期归母净利润同比增加70.15%

一路富甲爽到爆

07-20

别逗了，这叫涨吗？

港股异动 | 暑期档总票房突破35亿大麦娱乐(01060)涨超7% 猫眼娱乐(01896)涨超5%

一路富甲爽到爆

07-15

$大麦娱乐(01060)$ 真拉垮

一路富甲爽到爆

06-22

$中信证券(600030)$ 别看今天长得凶，明天搞不好跌得更惨

一路富甲爽到爆

06-09

$中信证券(600030)$ 股价与业绩严重倒挂的走势，真的很让人怀疑你公司业绩的真实性。

一路富甲爽到爆

06-09

$中信证券(600030)$ 垃圾中的垃圾🚮

一路富甲爽到爆

06-02

$大麦娱乐(01060)$ 希望大麦娱乐，今年能上到3元。[抱拳]

一路富甲爽到爆

05-29

$中信证券(600030)$ 天天拉高，再回落，真垃圾

一路富甲爽到爆

05-21

$中信证券(600030)$ 垃圾，又下套

一路富甲爽到爆

05-14

$大麦娱乐(01060)$ 你能上3元吗？

一路富甲爽到爆

05-04

$大麦娱乐(01060)$ 真垃圾

一路富甲爽到爆

04-27

$中信证券(600030)$ 今天走的真垃圾

一路富甲爽到爆

04-13

自己推荐自己，你也是中国股票市场第一家

中信证券：证券行业估值性价比凸显推荐头部证券公司以及中型券商

一路富甲爽到爆

04-09

还33.97元[捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴]

4月8日中信证券发生1笔大宗交易成交金额247万元

一路富甲爽到爆

02-23

$大麦娱乐(01060)$ 真垃圾

一路富甲爽到爆

02-20

垃圾的阿里影业

2026春节档总票房破30亿

一路富甲爽到爆

02-10

$大麦娱乐(01060)$ 真垃圾

一路富甲爽到爆

02-04

$中信证券(600030)$ 中信证券，你是快压不住盘了吗？马上要起爆了吗？

一路富甲爽到爆

02-02

$中信证券(600030)$ 又开始拉证券了，赶紧跑

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688825\">$长鑫科技(688825)$</a> 坚决不接盘，好不好过几天会像SpaceX一样下跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688825\">$长鑫科技(688825)$</a> 坚决不接盘，好不好过几天会像SpaceX一样下跌","text":"$长鑫科技(688825)$ 坚决不接盘，好不好过几天会像SpaceX一样下跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590502932832504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3498680662745699","authorIdStr":"3498680662745699"},"content":"他還不如SpaceX","text":"他還不如SpaceX","html":"他還不如SpaceX"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":587890079711680,"gmtCreate":1784559280934,"gmtModify":1784559282656,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"跟业绩已经没有关系了吧","listText":"跟业绩已经没有关系了吧","text":"跟业绩已经没有关系了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587890079711680","repostId":"2652269935","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2652269935","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1784515531,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2652269935?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-20 10:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"港股异动 | 中信证券(06030)涨近4% 预期中期归母净利润同比增加70.15%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2652269935","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券涨近4%，截至发稿，涨2.47%，报27.36港元，报9687.58万港元。消息面上，近日，中信证券发布公告，经财务部门初步测算，预计2026年半年度公司实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润人民币233.43亿元，与上年同期相比，将增加人民币96.24亿元，同比增加70.15%；与重述注后上年同期相比，将增加人民币95.79亿元，同比增加69.59%。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>(06030)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨2.47%，报27.36港元，报9687.58万港元。</p><p>消息面上，近日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>发布公告，经财务部门初步测算，预计2026年半年度公司实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润人民币233.43亿元，与上年同期(人民币137.19亿元)相比，将增加人民币96.24亿元，同比增加70.15%；与重述注后上年同期(人民币137.64亿元)相比，将增加人民币95.79亿元，同比增加69.59%。</p><p>预计2026年半年度公司实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润人民币236.10亿元，与上年同期(人民币135.71亿元)相比，将增加人民币100.39亿元，同比增加73.97%；与重述后上年同期(人民币136.16亿元)相比，将增加人民币99.94亿元，同比增加73.40%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股异动 | 中信证券(06030)涨近4% 预期中期归母净利润同比增加70.15%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-20 10:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1469579.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券(06030)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨2.47%，报27.36港元，报9687.58万港元。消息面上，近日，中信证券发布公告，经财务部门初步测算，预计2026年半年度公司实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润人民币233.43亿元，与上年同期(人民币137.19亿元)相比，将增加人民币96.24亿元，同比增加70.15%；与重述注后上年同期(人民币137.64亿元)相比，将增加...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1469579.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","VXUS":"国际股票ETF-Vanguard","06030":"中信证券","KCAI":"KraneShares China Alpha Index ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1469579.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2652269935","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券(06030)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨2.47%，报27.36港元，报9687.58万港元。消息面上，近日，中信证券发布公告，经财务部门初步测算，预计2026年半年度公司实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润人民币233.43亿元，与上年同期(人民币137.19亿元)相比，将增加人民币96.24亿元，同比增加70.15%；与重述注后上年同期(人民币137.64亿元)相比，将增加人民币95.79亿元，同比增加69.59%。预计2026年半年度公司实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润人民币236.10亿元，与上年同期(人民币135.71亿元)相比，将增加人民币100.39亿元，同比增加73.97%；与重述后上年同期(人民币136.16亿元)相比，将增加人民币99.94亿元，同比增加73.40%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1.5,"VXUS":1.5,"KCAI":1.5,"06030":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":587889430306920,"gmtCreate":1784559225269,"gmtModify":1784559227168,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"别逗了，这叫涨吗？","listText":"别逗了，这叫涨吗？","text":"别逗了，这叫涨吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587889430306920","repostId":"2651782411","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2651782411","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1784186344,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2651782411?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-16 15:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股异动 | 暑期档总票房突破35亿 大麦娱乐(01060)涨超7% 猫眼娱乐(01896)涨超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2651782411","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，电影概念股涨幅扩大，截至发稿，大麦娱乐涨7.22%，报0.52港元；猫眼娱乐涨5.06%，报5.61港元。消息面上，截至7月16日，2026年暑期档档期总票房（含预售）突破35亿。值得一提的是，继《功夫女足》之后，暑期档又一部爆款电影即将公映。截至7月15日22时37分，动画喜剧电影《八仙！》点映及预售总票房突破5000万元。此外，截至发稿，《功夫女足》总票房接近9亿。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，电影概念股涨幅扩大，截至发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01060\">大麦娱乐</a>(01060)涨7.22%，报0.52港元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01896\">猫眼娱乐</a>(01896)涨5.06%，报5.61港元。</p><p>消息面上，截至7月16日，2026年暑期档档期总票房（含预售）突破35亿。值得一提的是，继《功夫女足》之后，暑期档又一部爆款电影即将公映。截至7月15日22时37分，动画喜剧电影《八仙！》点映及预售总票房突破5000万元。此外，截至发稿，《功夫女足》总票房接近9亿。</p><p>万联证券指出，周星驰执导的《功夫女足》作为上周核心拉动影片，充分发挥头部大片救市作用，依托国民级导演IP、功夫+体育喜剧差异化题材精准击中全年龄观众需求，上映后排片、上座率、单日票房持续领跑档期，拉动大盘实现环比高增，后续7月下旬至8月暑期档后半程供给依旧密集，有多部重点影片值得持续跟踪。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1468381.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，电影概念股涨幅扩大，截至发稿，大麦娱乐(01060)涨7.22%，报0.52港元；猫眼娱乐(01896)涨5.06%，报5.61港元。消息面上，截至7月16日，2026年暑期档档期总票房（含预售）突破35亿。值得一提的是，继《功夫女足》之后，暑期档又一部爆款电影即将公映。截至7月15日22时37分，动画喜剧电影《八仙！》点映及预售总票房突破5000万元。此外，截至发稿，《功夫...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1468381.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","01896":"猫眼娱乐","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1128":"电影和娱乐","BK1581":"电影概念","BK1591":"就地过年概念","01060":"大麦娱乐","VXUS":"国际股票ETF-Vanguard","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK1516":"腾讯概念","BK1501":"阿里概念股","KCAI":"KraneShares China Alpha Index ETF","PEJ":"INVESCO LEISURE AND ENTERTAINMENT 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今天走的真垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557979501164384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":553070270798032,"gmtCreate":1776061561954,"gmtModify":1776061564322,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"自己推荐自己，你也是中国股票市场第一家","listText":"自己推荐自己，你也是中国股票市场第一家","text":"自己推荐自己，你也是中国股票市场第一家","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/553070270798032","repostId":"2627710273","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2627710273","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776041227,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2627710273?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-13 08:47","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"中信证券：证券行业估值性价比凸显 推荐头部证券公司以及中型券商","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2627710273","media":"智通财经","summary":"推荐头部证券公司以及中型券商。根据Wind，2026年1季度，资本市场股票日均成交额达2.58万亿，环比增长30.8%，同比增长69.7%，显著高于1.73万亿的2025年日均水平。在此助力下证券行业2026年一季度行业利润同比增速有望达30%以上。但在当前资本市场回归至4000点左右，券商板块PB、PE估值均位于近十年20%分位数以下的情况下，市值进一步承压以及行业再融资可能性有所下降。","content":"<html><body><p><span><span></span></span>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>发布研报称，市场成交的高活跃度以及投行衍生品领域的监管放松是年内证券行业业绩改善的核心主线。当前券商板块PB、PE估值均位于近十年20%分位数以下，具备较高的配置安全边际，后续基本面、政策面、题材面的持续活跃有望成为助力估值回暖的核心驱动因素。建议围绕业绩增长高确定性与长线行业竞争格局改善进行布局，依托并购重组带来协同效应以及杠杆扩容提升的资本利用效率，行业中大型机构有望持续改善股东回报实现市场份额提升。推荐头部证券公司以及中型券商。</p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>主要观点如下：</span></p><p><strong>活跃市场稳定业绩增长基础，监管变革带来长期边际改善。</strong></p><p>根据Wind，2026年1季度，资本市场股票日均成交额达2.58万亿，环比增长30.8%，同比增长69.7%，显著高于1.73万亿的2025年日均水平。高度活跃的市场交易将持续提振经纪业务收入稳定行业业绩增长基础。</p><p>在十五五定调“积极发展股权、债券直接融资，稳步发展期货、衍生品、资产证券化业务”的宏观指引下，投行业务及衍生品业务的监管变革将为行业业绩带来进一步边际改善。根据Wind，2026年1季度，A股市场股权融资规模达2538亿元，环比提升36.2%，同比提升64.0%。在两会确认消费类IPO与科技类企业再融资提速的宏观环境下，2026年内投行发展保持持续乐观。衍生品业务层面，2026年1月《衍生品交易监督管理办法(试行)(征求意见稿)》提出“保持衍生品市场合理的杠杆水平和市场规模”，有望突破2023年11月以来对于场外衍生品规模的刚性限制，打开以客需业务驱动杠杆提升和投资收益增长的空间。在此助力下证券行业2026年一季度行业利润同比增速有望达30%以上。</p><p><strong>投资压力点持续化解，板块底部逐步夯实。</strong></p><p>截至2026年4月10日，2026年以来非银板块回撤明显，年内下跌11.69ppts，居所有版块末位。头部股东减持、再融资摊薄风险及监管风险成为板块收益显著下滑的核心的原因。但在当前资本市场回归至4000点左右，券商板块PB、PE估值均位于近十年20%分位数以下的情况下，市值进一步承压以及行业再融资可能性有所下降。从监管层面观察，区别与以往的大开大合周期，此轮资本市场改革持续围绕逆周期、精细化改革进行推进，预计后续对于违法行为的监管将持续落实，但在衍生品、投行、买方投顾等业务层面有望给予积极支持。</p><p><strong>展望年中，券商板块有望迎来较好基本面、政策面及题材面的共振时段。</strong></p><p>在资本市场持续企稳向好的宏观背景下，市场活跃度仍有望保持高位，为证券行业中报确定良好预期，我们预计证券行业2026上半年利润依然有望保持30%以上同比增速。政策层面，根据证监会2026年立法工作方案，再融资、衍生品等领域政策已纳入“力争年内出台的重点项目”，有望在年中附近逐步迎来落实。同时，行业并购重组作为持续驱动板块投资情绪的重要的题材，中央汇金系并购重组短期将进一步落地，国资委及地方国资系并购年内有望迎来推进契机。</p><p><strong>风险因素：</strong></p><p>市场成交额下行，股权融资收紧，投资业务出现亏损，信用业务风险暴露。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信证券：证券行业估值性价比凸显 推荐头部证券公司以及中型券商\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-13 08:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427517.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，市场成交的高活跃度以及投行衍生品领域的监管放松是年内证券行业业绩改善的核心主线。当前券商板块PB、PE估值均位于近十年20%分位数以下，具备较高的配置安全边际，后续基本面、政策面、题材面的持续活跃有望成为助力估值回暖的核心驱动因素。建议围绕业绩增长高确定性与长线行业竞争格局改善进行布局，依托并购重组带来协同效应以及杠杆扩容提升的资本利用效率，行业中大型机构...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427517.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159848":"证券公司","161027":"证券","399975":"证券公司","600030":"中信证券","LU1997244956.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC A","BK0012":"证金概念","LU0405327494.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK1564":"中资券商股","BK0028":"国家队","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","BK0276":"资本市场","LU1655091616.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A-Share Opportunities A (acc) 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ACC","BK0188":"融资融券"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427517.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2627710273","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，市场成交的高活跃度以及投行衍生品领域的监管放松是年内证券行业业绩改善的核心主线。当前券商板块PB、PE估值均位于近十年20%分位数以下，具备较高的配置安全边际，后续基本面、政策面、题材面的持续活跃有望成为助力估值回暖的核心驱动因素。建议围绕业绩增长高确定性与长线行业竞争格局改善进行布局，依托并购重组带来协同效应以及杠杆扩容提升的资本利用效率，行业中大型机构有望持续改善股东回报实现市场份额提升。推荐头部证券公司以及中型券商。中信证券主要观点如下：活跃市场稳定业绩增长基础，监管变革带来长期边际改善。根据Wind，2026年1季度，资本市场股票日均成交额达2.58万亿，环比增长30.8%，同比增长69.7%，显著高于1.73万亿的2025年日均水平。高度活跃的市场交易将持续提振经纪业务收入稳定行业业绩增长基础。在十五五定调“积极发展股权、债券直接融资，稳步发展期货、衍生品、资产证券化业务”的宏观指引下，投行业务及衍生品业务的监管变革将为行业业绩带来进一步边际改善。根据Wind，2026年1季度，A股市场股权融资规模达2538亿元，环比提升36.2%，同比提升64.0%。在两会确认消费类IPO与科技类企业再融资提速的宏观环境下，2026年内投行发展保持持续乐观。衍生品业务层面，2026年1月《衍生品交易监督管理办法(试行)(征求意见稿)》提出“保持衍生品市场合理的杠杆水平和市场规模”，有望突破2023年11月以来对于场外衍生品规模的刚性限制，打开以客需业务驱动杠杆提升和投资收益增长的空间。在此助力下证券行业2026年一季度行业利润同比增速有望达30%以上。投资压力点持续化解，板块底部逐步夯实。截至2026年4月10日，2026年以来非银板块回撤明显，年内下跌11.69ppts，居所有版块末位。头部股东减持、再融资摊薄风险及监管风险成为板块收益显著下滑的核心的原因。但在当前资本市场回归至4000点左右，券商板块PB、PE估值均位于近十年20%分位数以下的情况下，市值进一步承压以及行业再融资可能性有所下降。从监管层面观察，区别与以往的大开大合周期，此轮资本市场改革持续围绕逆周期、精细化改革进行推进，预计后续对于违法行为的监管将持续落实，但在衍生品、投行、买方投顾等业务层面有望给予积极支持。展望年中，券商板块有望迎来较好基本面、政策面及题材面的共振时段。在资本市场持续企稳向好的宏观背景下，市场活跃度仍有望保持高位，为证券行业中报确定良好预期，我们预计证券行业2026上半年利润依然有望保持30%以上同比增速。政策层面，根据证监会2026年立法工作方案，再融资、衍生品等领域政策已纳入“力争年内出台的重点项目”，有望在年中附近逐步迎来落实。同时，行业并购重组作为持续驱动板块投资情绪的重要的题材，中央汇金系并购重组短期将进一步落地，国资委及地方国资系并购年内有望迎来推进契机。风险因素：市场成交额下行，股权融资收紧，投资业务出现亏损，信用业务风险暴露。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159848":1.5,"161027":1.5,"399975":1.5,"600030":1.5,"06030":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551637746390272,"gmtCreate":1775699022668,"gmtModify":1775699025206,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"还33.97元[捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"还33.97元[捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp; [捂嘴]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"还33.97元[捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴] [捂嘴]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551637746390272","repostId":"2625416917","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625416917","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"证券之星始创于1996年，是国内领先的金融信息及综合服务平台。关注证券之星，即时获取有价值的财经资讯。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"证券之星","id":"1082532455","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f"},"pubTimestamp":1775642021,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2625416917?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-08 17:53","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"4月8日中信证券发生1笔大宗交易 成交金额247万元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625416917","media":"证券之星","summary":"证券之星消息，4月8日中信证券发生大宗交易，交易数据如下：大宗交易成交价格24.7元，成交10万股，成交金额247万元，买方营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部，卖方营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司北京方庄路证券营业部。近三个月该股共发生3笔大宗交易，合计成交6868.0手，折价成交1笔。该股近期无解禁股上市。截至2026年4月8日收盘，中信证券报收于24.7元，上涨3.26%，换手率1.25%，成交量152.75万手，成交额37.49亿元。","content":"<html><body><p>证券之星消息，4月8日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>发生大宗交易，交易数据如下：</p><p>大宗交易成交价格24.7元，成交10万股，成交金额247万元，买方营业部为国泰<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">海通证券</a>股份有限公司总部，卖方营业部为国泰<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">海通证券</a>股份有限公司北京方庄路证券营业部。</p><p>近三个月该股共发生3笔大宗交易，合计成交6868.0手，折价成交1笔。该股近期无解禁股上市。</p><p>截至2026年4月8日收盘，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>(600030)报收于24.7元，上涨3.26%，换手率1.25%，成交量152.75万手，成交额37.49亿元。</p><p>该股最近90天内共有22家机构给出评级，买入评级17家，增持评级5家；过去90天内机构目标均价为33.97。</p><p>以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。</p></body></html>","source":"stockstar","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4月8日中信证券发生1笔大宗交易 成交金额247万元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1082532455\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">证券之星 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-08 17:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>证券之星消息，4月8日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>发生大宗交易，交易数据如下：</p><p>大宗交易成交价格24.7元，成交10万股，成交金额247万元，买方营业部为国泰<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">海通证券</a>股份有限公司总部，卖方营业部为国泰<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">海通证券</a>股份有限公司北京方庄路证券营业部。</p><p>近三个月该股共发生3笔大宗交易，合计成交6868.0手，折价成交1笔。该股近期无解禁股上市。</p><p>截至2026年4月8日收盘，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>(600030)报收于24.7元，上涨3.26%，换手率1.25%，成交量152.75万手，成交额37.49亿元。</p><p>该股最近90天内共有22家机构给出评级，买入评级17家，增持评级5家；过去90天内机构目标均价为33.97。</p><p>以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0405327148.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","LU1255011170.USD":"JPM CHINA A-SHARE OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0012":"证金概念","06030":"中信证券","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1997245094.SGD":"安联神州A股基金AT Acc SGD","BK1564":"中资券商股","BK0028":"国家队","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0276":"资本市场","LU2495084118.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"ATH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1997244956.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"AT\" (HKD) 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ACC","LU1997245177.USD":"安联神洲A股基金","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓"},"source_url":"https://stock.stockstar.com/RB2026040800028196.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625416917","content_text":"证券之星消息，4月8日中信证券发生大宗交易，交易数据如下：大宗交易成交价格24.7元，成交10万股，成交金额247万元，买方营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部，卖方营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司北京方庄路证券营业部。近三个月该股共发生3笔大宗交易，合计成交6868.0手，折价成交1笔。该股近期无解禁股上市。截至2026年4月8日收盘，中信证券(600030)报收于24.7元，上涨3.26%，换手率1.25%，成交量152.75万手，成交额37.49亿元。该股最近90天内共有22家机构给出评级，买入评级17家，增持评级5家；过去90天内机构目标均价为33.97。以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1.5,"06030":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":535900190568688,"gmtCreate":1771811949366,"gmtModify":1771812597964,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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真垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535900190568688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534655278224888,"gmtCreate":1771552021534,"gmtModify":1771552595981,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"垃圾的阿里影业","listText":"垃圾的阿里影业","text":"垃圾的阿里影业","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534655278224888","repostId":"2612401231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612401231","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771500660,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2612401231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-19 19:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2026春节档总票房破30亿","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612401231","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，据灯塔专业版，截至2月19日19时27分，2026春节档（2月15日-2月23日）档期总票房（含预售）达30亿。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，据灯塔专业版，截至2月19日19时27分，2026春节档（2月15日-2月23日）档期总票房（含预售）达30亿。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260219/1771500749723516.jpg?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,q_80\" title=\"1771500749723516.jpg\"/></p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2026春节档总票房破30亿</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2026春节档总票房破30亿\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-19 19:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405911.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，据灯塔专业版，截至2月19日19时27分，2026春节档（2月15日-2月23日）档期总票房（含预售）达30亿。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405911.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","01060":"大麦娱乐","BK4608":"AI应用概念股","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","BK1128":"电影和娱乐","BK4539":"次新股","00136":"中国儒意","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4023":"应用软件","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) 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ETF-Tradr"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405911.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2612401231","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，据灯塔专业版，截至2月19日19时27分，2026春节档（2月15日-2月23日）档期总票房（含预售）达30亿。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00136":0.9,"01060":0.9,"APPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":531270548738176,"gmtCreate":1770690127164,"gmtModify":1770690681643,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01060\">$大麦娱乐(01060)$</a> 真垃圾","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01060\">$大麦娱乐(01060)$</a> 真垃圾","text":"$大麦娱乐(01060)$ 真垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/531270548738176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529033949032736,"gmtCreate":1770189911768,"gmtModify":1770191032591,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">$中信证券(600030)$</a> 中信证券，你是快压不住盘了吗？马上要起爆了吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">$中信证券(600030)$</a> 中信证券，你是快压不住盘了吗？马上要起爆了吗？","text":"$中信证券(600030)$ 中信证券，你是快压不住盘了吗？马上要起爆了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529033949032736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":528290937218264,"gmtCreate":1769998184875,"gmtModify":1769998187108,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">$中信证券(600030)$</a> 又开始拉证券了，赶紧跑","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">$中信证券(600030)$</a> 又开始拉证券了，赶紧跑","text":"$中信证券(600030)$ 又开始拉证券了，赶紧跑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528290937218264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":202435721511176,"gmtCreate":1690439540840,"gmtModify":1690439542240,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我就问问阿里影业，咋啥时候能上到5块钱？","listText":"我就问问阿里影业，咋啥时候能上到5块钱？","text":"我就问问阿里影业，咋啥时候能上到5块钱？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/202435721511176","repostId":"2354393103","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2354393103","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1690275558,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2354393103?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-25 16:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"刷新记录！7月票房逼近70亿 阿里影业(01060)等成背后赢家","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2354393103","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，据灯塔专业版最新数据，截至7月25日16时31分，2023年7月总票房(含预售)突破69.90亿，超2018年7月总票房69.66亿成绩，刷新中国影史7月票房纪录。值得一提的是，出品方淘票票和北京阿里巴巴影业文化有限公司，均系阿里影业旗下公司。值得注意的是，有报道称，《封神》三部曲的总投资额约30亿元，平均每部达10亿元。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，据灯塔专业版最新数据，截至7月25日16时31分，2023年7月总票房(含预售)突破69.90亿，超2018年7月总票房69.66亿成绩，刷新中国影史7月票房纪录。7月票房TOP5分别为《消失的她》、《八角笼中》、《长安三万里》、《封神第一部》、《碟中谍7：致命清算(上)》。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230725/1690273989656102.jpg?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1690273989656102.jpg\"/></p><p>据了解，《消失的她》主要出品方为<strong>北京壹同传奇影视文化有限公司、淘票票。</strong>此外，该影片还有15个联合出品方，<strong>抖音文化、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601595\">上海电影</a>(601595.SH)、猫眼微影、珠江影业等</strong>公司均有参与。值得一提的是，出品方淘票票和北京<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>影业文化有限公司，均系<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01060\">阿里影业</a>(01060)</strong>旗下公司。灯塔专业版映前媒体票房预测为7.50亿元-9.80亿元，截至发稿，该电影累计票房达34.75亿元，大超预期。</p><p>《八角笼中》电影出品方包括<strong>北京乐开花影业有限公司、图木舒克<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300111\">向日葵</a>影业有限公司、无锡宝唐影业有限公司、天津猫眼微影文化传媒有限公司。</strong>天眼查App显示，除<strong>猫眼电影</strong>关联公司外，《八角笼中》电影的其他出品方均为王宝强关联公司。该电影的联合出品方包括<strong>北京壹同传奇影视文化有限公司、峨眉电影集团、北京微梦创科网络技术有限公司(微博)等。</strong>灯塔专业版映前媒体票房预测为7.15亿元-10.00亿元，截至发稿，该电影实际累计票房达18.97亿元，大超预期。</p><p>《长安三万里》由<strong>上海追光影业有限公司、北京阿里巴巴影业文化有限公司、天津猫眼微影文化传媒有限公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600977\">中国电影</a>(600977.SH)出品，北京微梦创科网络技术有限公司</strong>联合出品。灯塔专业版映前媒体票房预测为4.00亿元-5.50亿元，截至发稿，该电影累计票房达12.69亿元，大超预期。</p><p>《封神第一部》出品方为<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000802\">北京文化</a>(000802.SZ)、东阳长生天、世纪长生天等。</strong>灯塔专业版映前媒体票房预测为13.00亿元-25.00亿元，截至发稿，该电影累计票房达5.00亿元。值得注意的是，有报道称，《封神》三部曲的总投资额约30亿元，平均每部达10亿元。有业内人士分析指出，<strong>依照此前披露的制作成本，加上宣发投入，要想盈利《封神》每部的票房至少要在20亿元以上。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>刷新记录！7月票房逼近70亿 阿里影业(01060)等成背后赢家</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-25 16:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/965589.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，据灯塔专业版最新数据，截至7月25日16时31分，2023年7月总票房(含预售)突破69.90亿，超2018年7月总票房69.66亿成绩，刷新中国影史7月票房纪录。7月票房TOP5分别为《消失的她》、《八角笼中》、《长安三万里》、《封神第一部》、《碟中谍7：致命清算(上)》。据了解，《消失的她》主要出品方为北京壹同传奇影视文化有限公司、淘票票。此外，该影片还有15个联合出品方，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/965589.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK1517":"云办公","LU0348784397.USD":"ALLIANZ ORIENTAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","01896":"猫眼娱乐","BK1588":"回港中概股","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","01060":"大麦娱乐","BK1516":"腾讯概念","LU0128522744.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" ACC","IE00B5MMRT66.SGD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) 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Acc"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/965589.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2354393103","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，据灯塔专业版最新数据，截至7月25日16时31分，2023年7月总票房(含预售)突破69.90亿，超2018年7月总票房69.66亿成绩，刷新中国影史7月票房纪录。7月票房TOP5分别为《消失的她》、《八角笼中》、《长安三万里》、《封神第一部》、《碟中谍7：致命清算(上)》。据了解，《消失的她》主要出品方为北京壹同传奇影视文化有限公司、淘票票。此外，该影片还有15个联合出品方，抖音文化、上海电影(601595.SH)、猫眼微影、珠江影业等公司均有参与。值得一提的是，出品方淘票票和北京阿里巴巴影业文化有限公司，均系阿里影业(01060)旗下公司。灯塔专业版映前媒体票房预测为7.50亿元-9.80亿元，截至发稿，该电影累计票房达34.75亿元，大超预期。《八角笼中》电影出品方包括北京乐开花影业有限公司、图木舒克向日葵影业有限公司、无锡宝唐影业有限公司、天津猫眼微影文化传媒有限公司。天眼查App显示，除猫眼电影关联公司外，《八角笼中》电影的其他出品方均为王宝强关联公司。该电影的联合出品方包括北京壹同传奇影视文化有限公司、峨眉电影集团、北京微梦创科网络技术有限公司(微博)等。灯塔专业版映前媒体票房预测为7.15亿元-10.00亿元，截至发稿，该电影实际累计票房达18.97亿元，大超预期。《长安三万里》由上海追光影业有限公司、北京阿里巴巴影业文化有限公司、天津猫眼微影文化传媒有限公司、中国电影(600977.SH)出品，北京微梦创科网络技术有限公司联合出品。灯塔专业版映前媒体票房预测为4.00亿元-5.50亿元，截至发稿，该电影累计票房达12.69亿元，大超预期。《封神第一部》出品方为北京文化(000802.SZ)、东阳长生天、世纪长生天等。灯塔专业版映前媒体票房预测为13.00亿元-25.00亿元，截至发稿，该电影累计票房达5.00亿元。值得注意的是，有报道称，《封神》三部曲的总投资额约30亿元，平均每部达10亿元。有业内人士分析指出，依照此前披露的制作成本，加上宣发投入，要想盈利《封神》每部的票房至少要在20亿元以上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01896":0.9,"01060":1,"09988":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":446938312037120,"gmtCreate":1750136965764,"gmtModify":1750139852639,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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真是垃圾票","text":"$中信证券(600030)$ 真是垃圾票","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487684378165632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":408378045784584,"gmtCreate":1740723166590,"gmtModify":1740725899627,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">$中信证券(600030)$</a> &nbsp;中信证券真是个垃圾票，除了会砸盘什么都不会","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">$中信证券(600030)$</a> &nbsp;中信证券真是个垃圾票，除了会砸盘什么都不会","text":"$中信证券(600030)$ 中信证券真是个垃圾票，除了会砸盘什么都不会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/408378045784584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305215904,"gmtCreate":1604989212508,"gmtModify":1703835602959,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>我大A的走势就像开玩笑似的，垃圾！就会给美国接盘。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>我大A的走势就像开玩笑似的，垃圾！就会给美国接盘。","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$我大A的走势就像开玩笑似的，垃圾！就会给美国接盘。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305215904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868292817,"gmtCreate":1632648579639,"gmtModify":1632648579639,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"希望下半年，金融能来一波大行情，个股都能涨个5块6块的。","listText":"希望下半年，金融能来一波大行情，个股都能涨个5块6块的。","text":"希望下半年，金融能来一波大行情，个股都能涨个5块6块的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868292817","repostId":"1180257725","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180257725","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632644550,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180257725?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 16:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"第三股“赚钱风”来临！这两大行业将成“香馍馍”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180257725","media":"海通证券","summary":"风起于青萍之末：稳增长政策有望进一步加码，地产政策或有望改善。","content":"<p><b>今年的第三股风</b></p>\n<p>今年前9个月即将过去，期间行情有两次明显的变化。春节前市场保持去年龙头行情的惯性，春节后至3月底市场调整，行情主线发生变化，3月底至7月新能源汽车板块涨幅居前，7月市场再次调整，7月底至今资源股涨幅领先，这是今年的前两股风。<b>展望未来，我们认为年内第三股风正来临，市场风格将更加均衡。</b></p>\n<p><b>1.回顾：今年前两股风</b></p>\n<p><b>第一股风：3月底-7月底新能源产业链。</b>回顾今年以来市场表现，春节前市场保持去年龙头行情的惯性，今年春节前茅指数涨幅到20.0%，而创业板指为15.1%，沪深300为11.4%。但是，春节后市场开始调整，一直持续到3月底，此后市场节奏也开始发生变化，主线开始从茅指数切换到新能源产业链。3月底-7月底期间新能源汽车指数上涨44.1%，其中上游新能源汽车相关原材料涨幅更惊人，锂矿指数上涨115.4%，氟化工上涨75.7%，钴矿指数上涨59.5%，磷化工指数上涨48.1%，而同期创业板指上涨24.7%，沪深300跌-3.4%。</p>\n<p>新能车相关公司表现强势的根本原因在于新能车销量持续超预期。去年底市场对2021年新能车的销量预期保持在180~200万辆之间，此后随着每月新能车销量持续超预期，市场对全年新能车销量预期也逐步抬升。根据汽车工业协会数据，今年1-8月新能源汽车销量达149万辆，同比增长220%，市场预计今年新能车销量将达到280万辆。</p>\n<p><b>第二股风：7月底至今资源股。</b>7月市场再次调整，上证指数再次探底，盘中最低达3312.7点，创今年以来新低，市场在经历调整后主线开始从新能车产业链向资源股切换。具体而言，7月底至今磷化工指数上涨65.9%，锂矿指数上涨64.3%，煤炭上涨40.3%，氟化工上涨35.3%，钢铁上涨24.0%，钴矿指数上涨17.8%，镍矿指数上涨17.0%，而沪深300上涨1.9%，创业板指下跌-2.3%。资源股表现靓丽主要是因为相关原材料价格上涨，具体而言：</p>\n<p>第一类是供给受限导致价格上涨。虽然7月底政治局会议中提及“做好大宗商品保供稳价工作”，但是大宗商品价格依旧持续上涨，这是源于双碳政策下，煤炭、钢铁等行业迎来限产。8月份发改委发布了《2021年上半年各地区能耗双控目标完成情况晴雨表》，对一级预警的省区提出新要求：对能耗强度不降反升的地区（地级市、州、盟），2021年暂停“两高”项目节能审查（国家规划布局的重大项目除外）。在这样背景下，今年以来焦煤期货价格上涨75%，动力煤上涨78%，其中7月底以来焦煤期货价格上涨29%，动力煤上涨31%，价格开始加速上涨驱动资源股股价攀升。</p>\n<p>第二类需求大幅扩张导致价格上涨，主要包磷化工、锂矿、氟化工、钴矿等与新能源有关的上游原材料。在《借鉴智能手机看新能源车产业演变-20210906》中，提到产业渗透率突破15%后进入加速渗透初期，这时投资机会主要集中在上游原材料。前文我们提到今年新能源汽车销量持续超预期，这直接刺激了对上游原材料的需求，今年以来黄磷上涨了311%，无水氢氟酸上涨了15%，氢氧化锂上涨了264%，LME3个月钴期货价格上涨了66%，其中7月底以来黄磷上涨了170%，氢氧化锂上涨了73%，价格开始加速上涨驱动资源股股价攀升。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dacd66a902eb3041c032c4990c4a804f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa5f6b0e0dac746af1d2c0b7096df8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a053a266be290c99041b2b669db5cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>2.第三股风正在来临</b></p>\n<p><b>风起于青萍之末：稳增长政策有望进一步加码，地产政策或有望改善。</b>8月宏观经济增长下行压力加大，拉动经济的“三驾马车”中消费、投资均偏弱。8月社会消费品零售总额两年年化同比1.5%，为2020年9月以来的最低值；固定资产投资两年年化同比略回升至4.7%，仍然处于低位，其中房地产投资增速已经连续4个月回落。</p>\n<p>9月22日国务院总理李克强主持召开国务院常务会议，会议指出要保持宏观政策连续性稳定性、增强有效性，做好预调微调和跨周期调节，加强财政、金融、就业政策联动，稳定市场合理预期；研究出台进一步促进消费的措施，更好发挥社会投资作用扩大有效投资，保持外贸外资稳定增长，确保经济运行在合理区间。</p>\n<p>除了“老基建”，国常会还针对“新基建”提出要求，包括：（1）加强信息基础设施建设。推动国家骨干网和城域网协同扩容，开展千兆光网提速改造。推进新一代移动通信网络商业化规模化应用。完善卫星通信、导航、遥感等空间信息基础设施。发展泛在协同的物联网；（2）稳步发展融合基础设施。打造多层次工业互联网平台，促进融通创新。结合推进新型城镇化，推动交通、物流、能源、市政等基础设施智慧化改造。提升农业数字化水平。建设远程医疗、在线教育等民生基础设施。</p>\n<p>稳增长政策逐步落地，后续有望进一步加码。我们认为财政和货币政策将延续730政治局会议的宽松基调。货币政策方面，7月15日央行已经全面降准，近两周央行加大公开市场操作的力度，合计净投放4600亿元，未来不排除进一步降准的可能性；财政政策方面，近两个月国债和地方债发行明显加速，接下来工作重心是在合理把握预算内投资和地方政府债券发行进度，推动今年底明年初形成实物工作量。</p>\n<p>投资政策方面，9月16日发改委在例行新闻发布会上表示要加快全年3.65万亿元地方政府专项债券发行和使用进度，推进重大工程、基本民生项目尽快形成实物工作量；同时新基建也是对冲经济下行的重要抓手，8月31日发改委副主任林念修称“十四五”的新型基础设施建设规划即将发布，将布局一系列重大工程，把5G建设推向全面深度覆盖新阶段。</p>\n<p>消费政策方面，9月16日商务部发布《进一步做好当前商务领域促消费重点工作的通知》，其中促进汽车消费、提振餐饮消费、发展新业态新模式新场景是亮点；9月24日北京市发布《北京培育建设国际消费中心城市实施方案（2021—2025年）》，覆盖数字、文旅、体育、教育医疗等多个领域。预计未来国家有望通过发放消费券和消费补贴等政策来进一步刺激大众消费。</p>\n<p>此外，近期部分房企债务风波引发市场担忧，我们观察发现地产政策或有改善。9月15日中国人民银行发布《关于开展内地与香港债券市场互联互通南向合作的通知》，一定程度补充市场流动性，对于蓝筹企业融资具备实际意义，有利于保障合规企业经营稳定，防范系统性风险。9月16和17日中山和珠海下调二手房转让个人所得税、土地增值税的税率向社会征求意见；<b>我们认为未来如果地产基本面加速恶化，政策维稳力度将进一步加强。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fcc053949a256738590503393c4bcfd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798775bd870ad51dd88117b39435ba85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dc8a85102155a9b74169fb6313b30a5\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风正吹向低估的大金融和基建相关制造。</b>大金融和基建相关制造行业受益于上述政策，随着经济下行压力被对冲以及房地产债务风波有所缓和，大金融行业有望迎来修复，而稳增长政策发力将直接带动新旧基建投资的增长，从而相关制造行业的需求有望扩张。<b>大金融和基建相关制造由于估值低、前期涨幅相对较小，性价比较好。</b>具体而言：</p>\n<p>从估值来看，大金融和基建板块整体偏低。从当前（20021/9/24，下同）PE（TTM，整体法）来看，银行为5.5倍（处17.1%分位）、房地产为10.1倍（处23.0%分位）、证券为19.4倍（处20.9%分位）、建筑为9.5倍（处13/06以来从低到高25.8%分位）、建材为14.1倍（处19.8%分位）、工程机械为12.6倍（处5.2%分位），而万得全A为19.4倍（处55.1%分位）；从当前PB（LF，整体法）来看，银行为0.6倍（处0.05%分位）、房地产为1.0倍（处2.2%分位）、证券为1.7倍（处37.9%分位）、建筑为1.1倍（处13/06以来从低到高27.6%分位）、建材为2.4倍（处46.8%分位）、工程机械为2.1倍（处78.5%分位），而万得全A为2.0倍（处66.4%分位）。</p>\n<p><b>今年以来大金融和基建相关制造涨幅落后，同时公募基金均处于低配状态。</b>从股价涨幅来看，今年以来（截至20021/9/24）银行涨跌幅为-0.5%、房地产为-9.6%、证券为-7.9、建筑为23.6%（8月以来上涨17.2%）、建材为6.0%、工程机械为-16.4%，大部分行业涨幅低于万得全A的6.1%。从基金仓位来看，21Q2公募基金对银行的超配比例（持仓市值占比-沪深300自由流通市值占比）为-9.5个百分点、房地产为-1.3个百分点、证券为-5.5个百分点、建筑为-0.7个百分点、建材为-0.1个百分点、工程机械为-0.7个百分点，均处于低配状态。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6355fb4361096b0e300fa9dfbcb746d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d5a3fa61af0233482f31aafe24075d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/126c99b0dac82eb4662213437436cf5d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c25254a399c1e85c432f7b815ae7adcb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>3.应对策略：均衡以待</b></p>\n<p><b>新一轮上涨蓄势待发中。</b>在《牛市有三个阶段-20190303》中我们提出牛市有三个阶段，第一是孕育期，资金面驱动，第二是爆发期，资金面和基本面双轮驱动，第三是泡沫期，基本面和情绪面驱动。现在正在处于牛市的第三阶段，创业板指21/3见底上涨已经创新高，新一轮上涨的背景是宏观政策宽松，驱动力是基本面+情绪面。如上文所述，稳增长政策有望进一步加码以对冲经济下行的压力，这也将支撑微观企业盈利继续上行。根据历史规律，牛市的高点对应ROE高点和市场情绪高点。</p>\n<p>以史为鉴，A股ROE上行周期持续7个季度，未来宏观政策宽松有望支撑企业盈利继续回升，预计21Q1达高点。情绪指标显示，PE/PB、风险溢价率和股债收益比等衡量的市场温度目前只有60度左右（历史牛市高点100度）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dbd91c533b19412761c1016fa0708cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3338e86965349edc8ba37cb138fd8c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>牛市高点特征是众乐乐。</b>可能有投资者担心基建和大金融上涨可能导致其他板块下跌，但是我们在《以史为鉴：牛市高点特征是众乐乐-20210824》中分析过，历史上牛市基本呈现“先分化，后均衡”的特征，且指数达到顶点时行业离散度均为阶段性低点。</p>\n<p>牛市见顶时多数行业估值处于偏高位置，以05-07年牛市为例，从07/03开始，随着指数开始最后一阶段的冲顶，行业估值过热从局部开始扩散，到了07/10时PE和PB（TTM，整体法）自02年1月以来分位数超过80%的行业个数占比分别为90%和70%。以12-15年牛市为例，随着15年上半年牛市来到最后一轮的泡沫阶段，市场热度在半年不到的时间内迅速扩散，直至15/06 PE和PB（TTM，整体法）自08年10月以来历史分位达到80%以上的行业占比均接近90%，即大盘指数开始见顶回落时，几乎所有行业的估值都处于当时的历史高位。</p>\n<p>目前各行业还没有出现这种现象，以前一轮牛熊周期的低点（13年6月）为起点，当前仅有9%（18%）的申万二级行业PE（PB）（TTM，整体法）超过了80%的历史分位，因此基建和大金融涨并不意味着其他行业跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d123d4480925a219acbf126a9e7fd38b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>均衡配置硬科技、大金融、基建相关制造。</b>我们认为接下来市场风格机会更加均衡，看好三个方向：</p>\n<p>一是高景气的硬科技。今年3月下旬开始我们撰写了《中国智造系列报告1-5》，一直坚定看好科技赋能的智能制造，也就是硬科技行业。目前硬科技的智能制造景气度高已经成为市场共识，新基建相关政策发力也对硬科技有催化作用，主要的焦点是如何看待高估值。而在《借鉴智能手机看新能源车产业演变-20210906》中我们指出，今年新能源车产业链类似2010年苹果手机产业链，高景气支撑高估值，后半场市场齐涨时继续上涨。</p>\n<p>二是低估的大金融。我们认为大金融中最值得重视的是券商，今年上半年券商净利润累计同比为27%，在当前市场活跃度提升、成交量持续放大背景下券商有望迎来上涨。此外，密切关注地产政策面的变化，关注房企债务风波能否妥善解决，如政策面出现积极变化，低估的地产行业望出现修复机会，并带动银行板块。历史上，四季度银行地产出现修复的概率较大。</p>\n<p>三是基建相关的制造业。正如上文分析未来稳增长政策进一步加码有望带动基建投资的增长，工程机械、建筑建材估值和盈利匹配度不错，截至21/09/24工程机械PE（TTM，整体法，下同）为12.6倍、21Q2归母净利累计同比为25.6%、对应PEG为0.49，建筑为9.5倍、32.5%、0.29，建材为14.1倍、31.3%、0.45。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbd29ff150de51b07b9c18a78917727\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/910ff21c4bcf7270ee79a446b2643ff0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>通胀继续大幅上行，投资时钟提前进入滞胀期。</p>","source":"lsy1582614894625","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>第三股“赚钱风”来临！这两大行业将成“香馍馍”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\n第三股“赚钱风”来临！这两大行业将成“香馍馍”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 16:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641165><strong>海通证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年的第三股风\n今年前9个月即将过去，期间行情有两次明显的变化。春节前市场保持去年龙头行情的惯性，春节后至3月底市场调整，行情主线发生变化，3月底至7月新能源汽车板块涨幅居前，7月市场再次调整，7月底至今资源股涨幅领先，这是今年的前两股风。展望未来，我们认为年内第三股风正来临，市场风格将更加均衡。\n1.回顾：今年前两股风\n第一股风：3月底-7月底新能源产业链。回顾今年以来市场表现，春节前市场保持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641165\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31045d119b018e3614a2750c00674d4c","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641165","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180257725","content_text":"今年的第三股风\n今年前9个月即将过去，期间行情有两次明显的变化。春节前市场保持去年龙头行情的惯性，春节后至3月底市场调整，行情主线发生变化，3月底至7月新能源汽车板块涨幅居前，7月市场再次调整，7月底至今资源股涨幅领先，这是今年的前两股风。展望未来，我们认为年内第三股风正来临，市场风格将更加均衡。\n1.回顾：今年前两股风\n第一股风：3月底-7月底新能源产业链。回顾今年以来市场表现，春节前市场保持去年龙头行情的惯性，今年春节前茅指数涨幅到20.0%，而创业板指为15.1%，沪深300为11.4%。但是，春节后市场开始调整，一直持续到3月底，此后市场节奏也开始发生变化，主线开始从茅指数切换到新能源产业链。3月底-7月底期间新能源汽车指数上涨44.1%，其中上游新能源汽车相关原材料涨幅更惊人，锂矿指数上涨115.4%，氟化工上涨75.7%，钴矿指数上涨59.5%，磷化工指数上涨48.1%，而同期创业板指上涨24.7%，沪深300跌-3.4%。\n新能车相关公司表现强势的根本原因在于新能车销量持续超预期。去年底市场对2021年新能车的销量预期保持在180~200万辆之间，此后随着每月新能车销量持续超预期，市场对全年新能车销量预期也逐步抬升。根据汽车工业协会数据，今年1-8月新能源汽车销量达149万辆，同比增长220%，市场预计今年新能车销量将达到280万辆。\n第二股风：7月底至今资源股。7月市场再次调整，上证指数再次探底，盘中最低达3312.7点，创今年以来新低，市场在经历调整后主线开始从新能车产业链向资源股切换。具体而言，7月底至今磷化工指数上涨65.9%，锂矿指数上涨64.3%，煤炭上涨40.3%，氟化工上涨35.3%，钢铁上涨24.0%，钴矿指数上涨17.8%，镍矿指数上涨17.0%，而沪深300上涨1.9%，创业板指下跌-2.3%。资源股表现靓丽主要是因为相关原材料价格上涨，具体而言：\n第一类是供给受限导致价格上涨。虽然7月底政治局会议中提及“做好大宗商品保供稳价工作”，但是大宗商品价格依旧持续上涨，这是源于双碳政策下，煤炭、钢铁等行业迎来限产。8月份发改委发布了《2021年上半年各地区能耗双控目标完成情况晴雨表》，对一级预警的省区提出新要求：对能耗强度不降反升的地区（地级市、州、盟），2021年暂停“两高”项目节能审查（国家规划布局的重大项目除外）。在这样背景下，今年以来焦煤期货价格上涨75%，动力煤上涨78%，其中7月底以来焦煤期货价格上涨29%，动力煤上涨31%，价格开始加速上涨驱动资源股股价攀升。\n第二类需求大幅扩张导致价格上涨，主要包磷化工、锂矿、氟化工、钴矿等与新能源有关的上游原材料。在《借鉴智能手机看新能源车产业演变-20210906》中，提到产业渗透率突破15%后进入加速渗透初期，这时投资机会主要集中在上游原材料。前文我们提到今年新能源汽车销量持续超预期，这直接刺激了对上游原材料的需求，今年以来黄磷上涨了311%，无水氢氟酸上涨了15%，氢氧化锂上涨了264%，LME3个月钴期货价格上涨了66%，其中7月底以来黄磷上涨了170%，氢氧化锂上涨了73%，价格开始加速上涨驱动资源股股价攀升。\n\n\n\n2.第三股风正在来临\n风起于青萍之末：稳增长政策有望进一步加码，地产政策或有望改善。8月宏观经济增长下行压力加大，拉动经济的“三驾马车”中消费、投资均偏弱。8月社会消费品零售总额两年年化同比1.5%，为2020年9月以来的最低值；固定资产投资两年年化同比略回升至4.7%，仍然处于低位，其中房地产投资增速已经连续4个月回落。\n9月22日国务院总理李克强主持召开国务院常务会议，会议指出要保持宏观政策连续性稳定性、增强有效性，做好预调微调和跨周期调节，加强财政、金融、就业政策联动，稳定市场合理预期；研究出台进一步促进消费的措施，更好发挥社会投资作用扩大有效投资，保持外贸外资稳定增长，确保经济运行在合理区间。\n除了“老基建”，国常会还针对“新基建”提出要求，包括：（1）加强信息基础设施建设。推动国家骨干网和城域网协同扩容，开展千兆光网提速改造。推进新一代移动通信网络商业化规模化应用。完善卫星通信、导航、遥感等空间信息基础设施。发展泛在协同的物联网；（2）稳步发展融合基础设施。打造多层次工业互联网平台，促进融通创新。结合推进新型城镇化，推动交通、物流、能源、市政等基础设施智慧化改造。提升农业数字化水平。建设远程医疗、在线教育等民生基础设施。\n稳增长政策逐步落地，后续有望进一步加码。我们认为财政和货币政策将延续730政治局会议的宽松基调。货币政策方面，7月15日央行已经全面降准，近两周央行加大公开市场操作的力度，合计净投放4600亿元，未来不排除进一步降准的可能性；财政政策方面，近两个月国债和地方债发行明显加速，接下来工作重心是在合理把握预算内投资和地方政府债券发行进度，推动今年底明年初形成实物工作量。\n投资政策方面，9月16日发改委在例行新闻发布会上表示要加快全年3.65万亿元地方政府专项债券发行和使用进度，推进重大工程、基本民生项目尽快形成实物工作量；同时新基建也是对冲经济下行的重要抓手，8月31日发改委副主任林念修称“十四五”的新型基础设施建设规划即将发布，将布局一系列重大工程，把5G建设推向全面深度覆盖新阶段。\n消费政策方面，9月16日商务部发布《进一步做好当前商务领域促消费重点工作的通知》，其中促进汽车消费、提振餐饮消费、发展新业态新模式新场景是亮点；9月24日北京市发布《北京培育建设国际消费中心城市实施方案（2021—2025年）》，覆盖数字、文旅、体育、教育医疗等多个领域。预计未来国家有望通过发放消费券和消费补贴等政策来进一步刺激大众消费。\n此外，近期部分房企债务风波引发市场担忧，我们观察发现地产政策或有改善。9月15日中国人民银行发布《关于开展内地与香港债券市场互联互通南向合作的通知》，一定程度补充市场流动性，对于蓝筹企业融资具备实际意义，有利于保障合规企业经营稳定，防范系统性风险。9月16和17日中山和珠海下调二手房转让个人所得税、土地增值税的税率向社会征求意见；我们认为未来如果地产基本面加速恶化，政策维稳力度将进一步加强。\n\n\n\n风正吹向低估的大金融和基建相关制造。大金融和基建相关制造行业受益于上述政策，随着经济下行压力被对冲以及房地产债务风波有所缓和，大金融行业有望迎来修复，而稳增长政策发力将直接带动新旧基建投资的增长，从而相关制造行业的需求有望扩张。大金融和基建相关制造由于估值低、前期涨幅相对较小，性价比较好。具体而言：\n从估值来看，大金融和基建板块整体偏低。从当前（20021/9/24，下同）PE（TTM，整体法）来看，银行为5.5倍（处17.1%分位）、房地产为10.1倍（处23.0%分位）、证券为19.4倍（处20.9%分位）、建筑为9.5倍（处13/06以来从低到高25.8%分位）、建材为14.1倍（处19.8%分位）、工程机械为12.6倍（处5.2%分位），而万得全A为19.4倍（处55.1%分位）；从当前PB（LF，整体法）来看，银行为0.6倍（处0.05%分位）、房地产为1.0倍（处2.2%分位）、证券为1.7倍（处37.9%分位）、建筑为1.1倍（处13/06以来从低到高27.6%分位）、建材为2.4倍（处46.8%分位）、工程机械为2.1倍（处78.5%分位），而万得全A为2.0倍（处66.4%分位）。\n今年以来大金融和基建相关制造涨幅落后，同时公募基金均处于低配状态。从股价涨幅来看，今年以来（截至20021/9/24）银行涨跌幅为-0.5%、房地产为-9.6%、证券为-7.9、建筑为23.6%（8月以来上涨17.2%）、建材为6.0%、工程机械为-16.4%，大部分行业涨幅低于万得全A的6.1%。从基金仓位来看，21Q2公募基金对银行的超配比例（持仓市值占比-沪深300自由流通市值占比）为-9.5个百分点、房地产为-1.3个百分点、证券为-5.5个百分点、建筑为-0.7个百分点、建材为-0.1个百分点、工程机械为-0.7个百分点，均处于低配状态。\n\n\n\n\n3.应对策略：均衡以待\n新一轮上涨蓄势待发中。在《牛市有三个阶段-20190303》中我们提出牛市有三个阶段，第一是孕育期，资金面驱动，第二是爆发期，资金面和基本面双轮驱动，第三是泡沫期，基本面和情绪面驱动。现在正在处于牛市的第三阶段，创业板指21/3见底上涨已经创新高，新一轮上涨的背景是宏观政策宽松，驱动力是基本面+情绪面。如上文所述，稳增长政策有望进一步加码以对冲经济下行的压力，这也将支撑微观企业盈利继续上行。根据历史规律，牛市的高点对应ROE高点和市场情绪高点。\n以史为鉴，A股ROE上行周期持续7个季度，未来宏观政策宽松有望支撑企业盈利继续回升，预计21Q1达高点。情绪指标显示，PE/PB、风险溢价率和股债收益比等衡量的市场温度目前只有60度左右（历史牛市高点100度）。\n\n\n牛市高点特征是众乐乐。可能有投资者担心基建和大金融上涨可能导致其他板块下跌，但是我们在《以史为鉴：牛市高点特征是众乐乐-20210824》中分析过，历史上牛市基本呈现“先分化，后均衡”的特征，且指数达到顶点时行业离散度均为阶段性低点。\n牛市见顶时多数行业估值处于偏高位置，以05-07年牛市为例，从07/03开始，随着指数开始最后一阶段的冲顶，行业估值过热从局部开始扩散，到了07/10时PE和PB（TTM，整体法）自02年1月以来分位数超过80%的行业个数占比分别为90%和70%。以12-15年牛市为例，随着15年上半年牛市来到最后一轮的泡沫阶段，市场热度在半年不到的时间内迅速扩散，直至15/06 PE和PB（TTM，整体法）自08年10月以来历史分位达到80%以上的行业占比均接近90%，即大盘指数开始见顶回落时，几乎所有行业的估值都处于当时的历史高位。\n目前各行业还没有出现这种现象，以前一轮牛熊周期的低点（13年6月）为起点，当前仅有9%（18%）的申万二级行业PE（PB）（TTM，整体法）超过了80%的历史分位，因此基建和大金融涨并不意味着其他行业跌。\n\n均衡配置硬科技、大金融、基建相关制造。我们认为接下来市场风格机会更加均衡，看好三个方向：\n一是高景气的硬科技。今年3月下旬开始我们撰写了《中国智造系列报告1-5》，一直坚定看好科技赋能的智能制造，也就是硬科技行业。目前硬科技的智能制造景气度高已经成为市场共识，新基建相关政策发力也对硬科技有催化作用，主要的焦点是如何看待高估值。而在《借鉴智能手机看新能源车产业演变-20210906》中我们指出，今年新能源车产业链类似2010年苹果手机产业链，高景气支撑高估值，后半场市场齐涨时继续上涨。\n二是低估的大金融。我们认为大金融中最值得重视的是券商，今年上半年券商净利润累计同比为27%，在当前市场活跃度提升、成交量持续放大背景下券商有望迎来上涨。此外，密切关注地产政策面的变化，关注房企债务风波能否妥善解决，如政策面出现积极变化，低估的地产行业望出现修复机会，并带动银行板块。历史上，四季度银行地产出现修复的概率较大。\n三是基建相关的制造业。正如上文分析未来稳增长政策进一步加码有望带动基建投资的增长，工程机械、建筑建材估值和盈利匹配度不错，截至21/09/24工程机械PE（TTM，整体法，下同）为12.6倍、21Q2归母净利累计同比为25.6%、对应PEG为0.49，建筑为9.5倍、32.5%、0.29，建材为14.1倍、31.3%、0.45。\n\n\n风险提示：通胀继续大幅上行，投资时钟提前进入滞胀期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613720792,"gmtCreate":1650087229520,"gmtModify":1650087229520,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他说的话有几句是真的？你们都敢信吗？","listText":"他说的话有几句是真的？你们都敢信吗？","text":"他说的话有几句是真的？你们都敢信吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613720792","repostId":"2227839859","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":141342602,"gmtCreate":1625840266706,"gmtModify":1625840266706,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"能说说25款app都是啥吗？","listText":"能说说25款app都是啥吗？","text":"能说说25款app都是啥吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141342602","repostId":"1199935751","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"森焱鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/357b7a5fb495989a98ac3bdd933533b7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3443259955812259","authorIdStr":"3443259955812259"},"content":"这里","text":"这里","html":"这里"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590502932832504,"gmtCreate":1785133480521,"gmtModify":1785133482464,"author":{"id":"3528421909346964","authorId":"3528421909346964","name":"一路富甲爽到爆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fc658cb767a17873a867d9a8270bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528421909346964","authorIdStr":"3528421909346964"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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