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一刀客
2020-04-07
?为毛涨,理由?
盘前:全球市场高歌猛进,投资者信心倍增
一刀客
2020-02-25
高级……黑?
抱歉,原内容已删除
一刀客
2020-04-08
留底
抱歉,原内容已删除
一刀客
2020-03-30
这个不错
@许哲:不对称责任下的疯狂套利
一刀客
2020-03-26
记录一下。
@小虎通知:【重要通知】原油ETN-UWT和DWT即将进入清算
一刀客
2020-03-26
没法关注?
抱歉,原内容已删除
一刀客
2020-03-07
一点干货都没的泛泛而谈型文章
中美ETF疯狂 华尔街传奇大空头:泡沫破裂声传来 08年终将重现
一刀客
2019-09-21
$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$
今天见识到了散户的疯狂~
一刀客
2019-09-18
$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$
多空博弈中
一刀客
2019-09-16
开盘跳空高开后瞬间一泻千里是什么操作…
一刀客
2019-09-11
入金第一天,模拟第一周~
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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20:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前:全球市场高歌猛进,投资者信心倍增","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122756933","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月7日,美国股指期货集体走高。截至发稿时间,道指期货涨3.34%,纳指期货涨2.68%,标普500指数期货涨2.89%。航空股大涨,捷蓝航空涨近20%,美国联合航空涨超13%,美国航空集团涨超11%","content":"<p>4月7日,美国股指期货集体走高。截至发稿时间,道指期货涨<span>3.34%</span>,纳指期货涨2.68%,标普500指数期货涨2.89%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca1429f87ff9f417106b3998e7c3d55\" /></p><p>航空股大涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JBLU\">捷蓝航空</a>涨近20%,美国联合航空涨超13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>集团涨超11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>涨超10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>涨9.61%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>涨8.22%。</p><p><span>邮轮股大涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>涨17.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>涨16.48%,嘉年华涨17.73%。</span></p><p>菲亚特克莱斯特盘前涨8%,正寻求增加现金储备。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">梅西百货</a>盘前涨超10%,公司宣布首席财务官将离职。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>盘前暂涨5.51%,CEO Woods承诺保留股息。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前涨超10%,3月完成1533台交付,环比上涨116.8%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>盘前涨6.15%,昨日收跌近20%。</p><p><b>其他市场</b></p><p>欧股集体走高,截止发稿时间,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨3.49%,法国CAC40指数涨2.70%,德国DAX指数涨3.64%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a160a0d1a8835f3d42f9dd301cc2abe\" /></p><p>美、布两油集体上涨,截止发稿时间,布伦特原油涨2.63%,报33.89美元/桶,WTI原油涨2.39%,报26.88元/桶。</p><p>现货黄金跌0.81%,报1651.668美元/盎司。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前:全球市场高歌猛进,投资者信心倍增</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前:全球市场高歌猛进,投资者信心倍增\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-04-07 20:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>4月7日,美国股指期货集体走高。截至发稿时间,道指期货涨<span>3.34%</span>,纳指期货涨2.68%,标普500指数期货涨2.89%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca1429f87ff9f417106b3998e7c3d55\" /></p><p>航空股大涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JBLU\">捷蓝航空</a>涨近20%,美国联合航空涨超13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>集团涨超11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>涨超10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>涨9.61%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>涨8.22%。</p><p><span>邮轮股大涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>涨17.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>涨16.48%,嘉年华涨17.73%。</span></p><p>菲亚特克莱斯特盘前涨8%,正寻求增加现金储备。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">梅西百货</a>盘前涨超10%,公司宣布首席财务官将离职。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>盘前暂涨5.51%,CEO Woods承诺保留股息。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前涨超10%,3月完成1533台交付,环比上涨116.8%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>盘前涨6.15%,昨日收跌近20%。</p><p><b>其他市场</b></p><p>欧股集体走高,截止发稿时间,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨3.49%,法国CAC40指数涨2.70%,德国DAX指数涨3.64%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a160a0d1a8835f3d42f9dd301cc2abe\" /></p><p>美、布两油集体上涨,截止发稿时间,布伦特原油涨2.63%,报33.89美元/桶,WTI原油涨2.39%,报26.88元/桶。</p><p>现货黄金跌0.81%,报1651.668美元/盎司。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122756933","content_text":"4月7日,美国股指期货集体走高。截至发稿时间,道指期货涨3.34%,纳指期货涨2.68%,标普500指数期货涨2.89%。航空股大涨,捷蓝航空涨近20%,美国联合航空涨超13%,美国航空集团涨超11%,达美航空涨超10%,西南航空涨9.61%,波音涨8.22%。邮轮股大涨,皇家加勒比邮轮涨17.19%,挪威邮轮涨16.48%,嘉年华涨17.73%。菲亚特克莱斯特盘前涨8%,正寻求增加现金储备。梅西百货盘前涨超10%,公司宣布首席财务官将离职。埃克森美孚盘前暂涨5.51%,CEO Woods承诺保留股息。蔚来盘前涨超10%,3月完成1533台交付,环比上涨116.8%。瑞幸咖啡盘前涨6.15%,昨日收跌近20%。其他市场欧股集体走高,截止发稿时间,英国富时100指数涨3.49%,法国CAC40指数涨2.70%,德国DAX指数涨3.64%。美、布两油集体上涨,截止发稿时间,布伦特原油涨2.63%,报33.89美元/桶,WTI原油涨2.39%,报26.88元/桶。现货黄金跌0.81%,报1651.668美元/盎司。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929533024,"gmtCreate":1585504186368,"gmtModify":1704358118611,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个不错","listText":"这个不错","text":"这个不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929533024","repostId":"929501335","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":929501335,"gmtCreate":1585472162602,"gmtModify":1740212262551,"author":{"id":"3453943051225490","authorId":"3453943051225490","name":"许哲","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c46141457152637805577175903002ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3453943051225490","authorIdStr":"3453943051225490"},"themes":[],"title":"不对称责任下的疯狂套利","htmlText":"作者:许哲 链接:https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/114540200 来源:知乎 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近我在一个投资者朋友群里分享的一些看法,莫名其妙的被很多很多群到处转发,非常意外。你们大部分人应该见过了 其实里面的内容大部分我在下面这个回答里说过: 美股近四天暴跌超过10%对美国和全球经济有什么影响?(zhihu.com/question/375237651/answer/1049530175) 服务“打死不点击外部链接星人”,大概的意思重复一下,因为还在市场激战,没空收集数据+整理图标,凑合看吧。 前面的知乎问答里的论点:所有的股灾的根本原因是估值过高,而不是其他。有人说新冠病毒是原因,我认为只是诱因,新冠病毒前的股市估值已经很离谱了,突发的黑天鹅事件是刺穿泡沫的一个导火索。当然,这个事情本身的体量也是大得惊人。本来盈利水平已经对不起这个估值了,更何况全世界的经济活动要停摆半年,会让本来已经过高的估值的基准——上市公司盈利水平,更加雪上加霜。从而使得股灾,更加火上浇油。 上面那个问答里用几个指标衡量了股市高估的程度,但没有具体展开讲为什么估值会被一路推高,仅仅列举了美联储资产负债表的扩张和利率不断走低的事实,没有展开讲路径。被四处传的微信聊天记录里简单描述了一下,也不是很全面。大致来讲和次贷危机的处理方式有关: 当初次贷危机是一次大规模的“甩锅”行为。 银行本来给买房者放贷,然后收取买房者每个月缴纳的本息,获得利润。这个过程很漫长,鉴于提高资金周转率的目的。银行会把这笔“债权”打包成证券,转让给其他愿意等待,而自己缺乏资产的金融机构。 注意,这里的资产的定义是:“能够持续产生现金流的东西”。 房贷的债权包装的债券,就是符合这种定义的。只要你持有房贷打包债券,就可以每个月收入到按揭买房者支付的","listText":"作者:许哲 链接:https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/114540200 来源:知乎 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近我在一个投资者朋友群里分享的一些看法,莫名其妙的被很多很多群到处转发,非常意外。你们大部分人应该见过了 其实里面的内容大部分我在下面这个回答里说过: 美股近四天暴跌超过10%对美国和全球经济有什么影响?(zhihu.com/question/375237651/answer/1049530175) 服务“打死不点击外部链接星人”,大概的意思重复一下,因为还在市场激战,没空收集数据+整理图标,凑合看吧。 前面的知乎问答里的论点:所有的股灾的根本原因是估值过高,而不是其他。有人说新冠病毒是原因,我认为只是诱因,新冠病毒前的股市估值已经很离谱了,突发的黑天鹅事件是刺穿泡沫的一个导火索。当然,这个事情本身的体量也是大得惊人。本来盈利水平已经对不起这个估值了,更何况全世界的经济活动要停摆半年,会让本来已经过高的估值的基准——上市公司盈利水平,更加雪上加霜。从而使得股灾,更加火上浇油。 上面那个问答里用几个指标衡量了股市高估的程度,但没有具体展开讲为什么估值会被一路推高,仅仅列举了美联储资产负债表的扩张和利率不断走低的事实,没有展开讲路径。被四处传的微信聊天记录里简单描述了一下,也不是很全面。大致来讲和次贷危机的处理方式有关: 当初次贷危机是一次大规模的“甩锅”行为。 银行本来给买房者放贷,然后收取买房者每个月缴纳的本息,获得利润。这个过程很漫长,鉴于提高资金周转率的目的。银行会把这笔“债权”打包成证券,转让给其他愿意等待,而自己缺乏资产的金融机构。 注意,这里的资产的定义是:“能够持续产生现金流的东西”。 房贷的债权包装的债券,就是符合这种定义的。只要你持有房贷打包债券,就可以每个月收入到按揭买房者支付的","text":"作者:许哲 链接:https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/114540200 来源:知乎 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近我在一个投资者朋友群里分享的一些看法,莫名其妙的被很多很多群到处转发,非常意外。你们大部分人应该见过了 其实里面的内容大部分我在下面这个回答里说过: 美股近四天暴跌超过10%对美国和全球经济有什么影响?(zhihu.com/question/375237651/answer/1049530175) 服务“打死不点击外部链接星人”,大概的意思重复一下,因为还在市场激战,没空收集数据+整理图标,凑合看吧。 前面的知乎问答里的论点:所有的股灾的根本原因是估值过高,而不是其他。有人说新冠病毒是原因,我认为只是诱因,新冠病毒前的股市估值已经很离谱了,突发的黑天鹅事件是刺穿泡沫的一个导火索。当然,这个事情本身的体量也是大得惊人。本来盈利水平已经对不起这个估值了,更何况全世界的经济活动要停摆半年,会让本来已经过高的估值的基准——上市公司盈利水平,更加雪上加霜。从而使得股灾,更加火上浇油。 上面那个问答里用几个指标衡量了股市高估的程度,但没有具体展开讲为什么估值会被一路推高,仅仅列举了美联储资产负债表的扩张和利率不断走低的事实,没有展开讲路径。被四处传的微信聊天记录里简单描述了一下,也不是很全面。大致来讲和次贷危机的处理方式有关: 当初次贷危机是一次大规模的“甩锅”行为。 银行本来给买房者放贷,然后收取买房者每个月缴纳的本息,获得利润。这个过程很漫长,鉴于提高资金周转率的目的。银行会把这笔“债权”打包成证券,转让给其他愿意等待,而自己缺乏资产的金融机构。 注意,这里的资产的定义是:“能够持续产生现金流的东西”。 房贷的债权包装的债券,就是符合这种定义的。只要你持有房贷打包债券,就可以每个月收入到按揭买房者支付的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c9fcd516e5437c8f1158ecc63141ad"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1770f2d16d684be9975db77f678ddd04"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed356f33df24243b9b3d4c24509e1d8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929501335","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929900166,"gmtCreate":1585184578555,"gmtModify":1704357280584,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"记录一下。","listText":"记录一下。","text":"记录一下。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929900166","repostId":"967449830","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":967449830,"gmtCreate":1584687174819,"gmtModify":1744855614305,"author":{"id":"37000856390400","authorId":"37000856390400","name":"小虎通知","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/40ff9573326cbdce8ed2a4976ed63455","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"37000856390400","authorIdStr":"37000856390400"},"themes":[],"title":"【重要通知】原油ETN-UWT和DWT即将进入清算","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWT\">$三倍做空原油ETN(DWT)$</a> 花旗环球金融控股(CGMHI)今天宣布,将加速处理(Optional Acceleration Redemption Amount)其发行的两只原油相关ETNs:意思就是要清算这两只ETN。 持有这两只ETN的投资者,将按最后估值日的的价值结算成等额现金。预计于2020年4月2日关闭交易。 具体文档查询: <a href=\"https://r.tigerbbs.com/lrag\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/200245/000095010320005510/dp124148_424b3-uwtdwta10.htm</a>","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWT\">$三倍做空原油ETN(DWT)$</a> 花旗环球金融控股(CGMHI)今天宣布,将加速处理(Optional Acceleration Redemption Amount)其发行的两只原油相关ETNs:意思就是要清算这两只ETN。 持有这两只ETN的投资者,将按最后估值日的的价值结算成等额现金。预计于2020年4月2日关闭交易。 具体文档查询: <a href=\"https://r.tigerbbs.com/lrag\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/200245/000095010320005510/dp124148_424b3-uwtdwta10.htm</a>","text":"$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$ $三倍做空原油ETN(DWT)$ 花旗环球金融控股(CGMHI)今天宣布,将加速处理(Optional Acceleration Redemption Amount)其发行的两只原油相关ETNs:意思就是要清算这两只ETN。 持有这两只ETN的投资者,将按最后估值日的的价值结算成等额现金。预计于2020年4月2日关闭交易。 具体文档查询: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/200245/000095010320005510/dp124148_424b3-uwtdwta10.htm","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af948bdb17ba058d21017a9b983a317a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967449830","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929029302,"gmtCreate":1585156949106,"gmtModify":1704357226015,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没法关注?","listText":"没法关注?","text":"没法关注?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929029302","repostId":"1138582340","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":981111238,"gmtCreate":1583547723024,"gmtModify":1704350269880,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一点干货都没的泛泛而谈型文章","listText":"一点干货都没的泛泛而谈型文章","text":"一点干货都没的泛泛而谈型文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981111238","repostId":"2017582965","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2017582965","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1583493690,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2017582965?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-06 19:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中美ETF疯狂 华尔街传奇大空头:泡沫破裂声传来 08年终将重现","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2017582965","media":"金融界","summary":"看空美股的声音越来越浓了…最近一周时间内,暴涨暴跌千点的道指,让“船上”的每个人都神经紧绷。而在上一次金融危机中一战成名的大空头Michael Burry,似乎早已为这一次美股巨震写下了剧本。1这次崩","content":"<html><body><p>看空美股的声音越来越浓了…</p><p>最近一周时间内,暴涨暴跌千点的道指,让“船上”的每个人都神经紧绷。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_10/BDA9F8CDA742F7429A854F65C8280175D4A5C5CE_w541_h324.png\"/></p><p>而在上一次金融危机中一战成名的大空头Michael Burry,似乎早已为这一次美股巨震写下了剧本。</p><p>1</p><p>这次崩掉的将是美股ETF</p><p>2019年9月,Michael Burry接受采访时罕见说出了自己的担忧,他认为,大量的资金涌入指数基金和交易所交易基金等被动投资资产,这与2008年前的CDO泡沫有相似之处,毫无疑问,这种复杂的证券在十年前几乎摧毁了全球金融体系。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_10/4A1D8D1BFF408AE05E57A30EE2656699892F51C7_w621_h382.jpg\"/></p><p>Michael Burry预警,如今指数基金也是同样的危险。</p><p>这次美股的暴跌不自觉让人们重新审视这位大空头的预言。</p><p>在过去的十年时间里,美股稳如巨轮,画出十年牛市,背后与ETF份额的涌入不无关系。美银美林统计,随着越来越多的投资者避开股票,涌向指数基金,被动投资目前已占据了股市近一半的份额。在不到10年的时间里,股票型被动基金就膨胀至逾3万亿美元的规模。</p><p>在Burry看来,ETF导致大量资金没有经过价格发现的过程,就配置了股票。巨资正在扭曲股票和债券的价格。资金流动一旦在某个时候逆转,“情况将变得非常糟糕”。</p><p><strong>2</strong></p><p><strong>“战胜”欧美的A股半导体</strong></p><p>如果你对美股疯狂的ETF没有感觉,举个A股“迷你版”的例子。</p><p>今年以来A股科技股持续火爆,科技类ETF炙手可热。在巨大的关注和流量下,史上首支首募规模超100亿元的科技类ETF横空出世,同时不少类似产品上市后规模爆炸式增长。</p><p>截至2月末,华夏5GETF的规模超过200亿元,华宝科技ETF超130亿元,华夏芯片ETF、国泰半导体50ETF均超过120亿元。多只份额翻倍,成交额领跑股票型ETF。</p><p>于是A股出现恐怖一幕。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600703\">三安光电</a>市值可以买下全世界所有的GaAs代工与全部LED厂商,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603160\">汇顶科技</a>市值可以买下联发科,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603501\">韦尔股份</a>市值超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">赛灵思</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">意法半导体</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300782\">卓胜微</a>市值比肩Qorvo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600745\">闻泰科技</a>赶上了NXP...</strong></p><p><strong>A股半导体就这样了“赶超”了日欧美,而利润只有美股巨头们零头的零头。</strong></p><p><strong>3</strong></p><p><strong>传奇的大空头</strong></p><p><strong>舞池音乐终究会走向休止...</strong></p><p>没有人可以忽视大空头Michael Burry的预警,因为上次金融危机的押注就证明了。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_10/0BADF2EF6753510ACD91574BD87002B204DFA546_w410_h444.png\"/></p><p>Michael Burry本人从2005年开始做空抵押贷款证券,但结果直到2008年才危机爆发。因此,在2005年和2006年,Burry的市场表现并不突出。</p><p>但2007下半年危机爆发,华尔街哀鸿遍野一片狼藉,Burry证明了自己,这一次耐心和预言让他一战成名。</p><p>Burry成立的管理规模仅6亿美元的Scion在2007年为投资者赚了7.5亿美元。</p><p>Burry曾经说过,</p><p>“Investors who have never really experienced a bubble will usually relax their investment standards after having a string of homeruns. This almost always leads to disaster, which we saw it in the most recent crisis. ”</p><p>没有经历过泡沫的投资者,狂赚后自然会放松标准,最后一定栽到坑里。</p><p>美国的ETF基金就像极了下一个Burry口中华丽的泡沫,不过,这个泡沫究竟何时会破裂?以何种方式破裂?拭目以待。</p><p><strong>4</strong></p><p><strong>特朗普的“KPI”悬了</strong></p><p>可以肯定的是,ETF已然是非常庞大了。</p><p>这种规模的加速背后也有老牌传奇投资人的持续“背书”。无论是林奇还是巴菲特,都一直在向大众灌输一种逻辑,那就是ETF基金最安全,收益能跑赢大部分主动基金,费率还更低。</p><p>投资ETF基金绝对不会错的这种假设导致越来越多人无脑买入,而不问其资金来源、收益目标、风险承受力如何。</p><p>这种ETF的投资思路,最终导致的将会是僵化的投资机制,使其本身缺少价值发现功能,资金流动与溢价机会全被集中在规模最大、被纳入指数的那些大公司里面。</p><p>牛市时,大家买指数,一起狂欢;熊市来时,投资人扎堆抛售指数基金,就算基本面良好的公司也将遭遇成倍猛烈的跌势。</p><p>目前能看到一个现象是,由于ETF基金过于庞大,导致维稳这一指数成了不少政治家的“KPI”,无论是特朗普还是鲍威尔,如今都对于指数战战兢兢。</p><p>有人说,现在美股的ETF,像极了庞氏发展的过程,但如果涌入一个策略的资金过量,最终造成的无疑是策略的失效,最后无论是特朗普还是鲍威尔,估计都无法控制这样的天量资金出逃。</p><p>没有什么会永远坚挺,泰坦尼克号终究驶向了沉没。载着万亿美金的ETF巨轮会否有朝一日也将难逃泰坦尼克号的命运,驶向崩塌…</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_10/A4A4FFEE1EB457AA7926B94C56EABFA8C694072E_w565_h304.jpg\"/></p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中美ETF疯狂 华尔街传奇大空头:泡沫破裂声传来 08年终将重现\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-06 19:21 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.ifeng.com/c/7ucqHBWOBiC><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>看空美股的声音越来越浓了…最近一周时间内,暴涨暴跌千点的道指,让“船上”的每个人都神经紧绷。而在上一次金融危机中一战成名的大空头Michael Burry,似乎早已为这一次美股巨震写下了剧本。1这次崩掉的将是美股ETF2019年9月,Michael Burry接受采访时罕见说出了自己的担忧,他认为,大量的资金涌入指数基金和交易所交易基金等被动投资资产,这与2008年前的CDO泡沫有相似之处,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/7ucqHBWOBiC\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://d.ifengimg.com/w144_h80_q70/x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_10/A4A4FFEE1EB457AA7926B94C56EABFA8C694072E_w565_h304.jpg","relate_stocks":{"PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/7ucqHBWOBiC","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2017582965","content_text":"看空美股的声音越来越浓了…最近一周时间内,暴涨暴跌千点的道指,让“船上”的每个人都神经紧绷。而在上一次金融危机中一战成名的大空头Michael Burry,似乎早已为这一次美股巨震写下了剧本。1这次崩掉的将是美股ETF2019年9月,Michael Burry接受采访时罕见说出了自己的担忧,他认为,大量的资金涌入指数基金和交易所交易基金等被动投资资产,这与2008年前的CDO泡沫有相似之处,毫无疑问,这种复杂的证券在十年前几乎摧毁了全球金融体系。Michael Burry预警,如今指数基金也是同样的危险。这次美股的暴跌不自觉让人们重新审视这位大空头的预言。在过去的十年时间里,美股稳如巨轮,画出十年牛市,背后与ETF份额的涌入不无关系。美银美林统计,随着越来越多的投资者避开股票,涌向指数基金,被动投资目前已占据了股市近一半的份额。在不到10年的时间里,股票型被动基金就膨胀至逾3万亿美元的规模。在Burry看来,ETF导致大量资金没有经过价格发现的过程,就配置了股票。巨资正在扭曲股票和债券的价格。资金流动一旦在某个时候逆转,“情况将变得非常糟糕”。2“战胜”欧美的A股半导体如果你对美股疯狂的ETF没有感觉,举个A股“迷你版”的例子。今年以来A股科技股持续火爆,科技类ETF炙手可热。在巨大的关注和流量下,史上首支首募规模超100亿元的科技类ETF横空出世,同时不少类似产品上市后规模爆炸式增长。截至2月末,华夏5GETF的规模超过200亿元,华宝科技ETF超130亿元,华夏芯片ETF、国泰半导体50ETF均超过120亿元。多只份额翻倍,成交额领跑股票型ETF。于是A股出现恐怖一幕。三安光电市值可以买下全世界所有的GaAs代工与全部LED厂商,汇顶科技市值可以买下联发科,韦尔股份市值超过了赛灵思和意法半导体,卓胜微市值比肩Qorvo,闻泰科技赶上了NXP...A股半导体就这样了“赶超”了日欧美,而利润只有美股巨头们零头的零头。3传奇的大空头舞池音乐终究会走向休止...没有人可以忽视大空头Michael Burry的预警,因为上次金融危机的押注就证明了。Michael Burry本人从2005年开始做空抵押贷款证券,但结果直到2008年才危机爆发。因此,在2005年和2006年,Burry的市场表现并不突出。但2007下半年危机爆发,华尔街哀鸿遍野一片狼藉,Burry证明了自己,这一次耐心和预言让他一战成名。Burry成立的管理规模仅6亿美元的Scion在2007年为投资者赚了7.5亿美元。Burry曾经说过,“Investors who have never really experienced a bubble will usually relax their investment standards after having a string of homeruns. This almost always leads to disaster, which we saw it in the most recent crisis. ”没有经历过泡沫的投资者,狂赚后自然会放松标准,最后一定栽到坑里。美国的ETF基金就像极了下一个Burry口中华丽的泡沫,不过,这个泡沫究竟何时会破裂?以何种方式破裂?拭目以待。4特朗普的“KPI”悬了可以肯定的是,ETF已然是非常庞大了。这种规模的加速背后也有老牌传奇投资人的持续“背书”。无论是林奇还是巴菲特,都一直在向大众灌输一种逻辑,那就是ETF基金最安全,收益能跑赢大部分主动基金,费率还更低。投资ETF基金绝对不会错的这种假设导致越来越多人无脑买入,而不问其资金来源、收益目标、风险承受力如何。这种ETF的投资思路,最终导致的将会是僵化的投资机制,使其本身缺少价值发现功能,资金流动与溢价机会全被集中在规模最大、被纳入指数的那些大公司里面。牛市时,大家买指数,一起狂欢;熊市来时,投资人扎堆抛售指数基金,就算基本面良好的公司也将遭遇成倍猛烈的跌势。目前能看到一个现象是,由于ETF基金过于庞大,导致维稳这一指数成了不少政治家的“KPI”,无论是特朗普还是鲍威尔,如今都对于指数战战兢兢。有人说,现在美股的ETF,像极了庞氏发展的过程,但如果涌入一个策略的资金过量,最终造成的无疑是策略的失效,最后无论是特朗普还是鲍威尔,估计都无法控制这样的天量资金出逃。没有什么会永远坚挺,泰坦尼克号终究驶向了沉没。载着万亿美金的ETF巨轮会否有朝一日也将难逃泰坦尼克号的命运,驶向崩塌…","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989032433,"gmtCreate":1582643479222,"gmtModify":1704347138086,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高级……黑?","listText":"高级……黑?","text":"高级……黑?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/989032433","repostId":"1112647132","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":939291559,"gmtCreate":1569024217671,"gmtModify":1704718810478,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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多空博弈中","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/939925389","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930766045,"gmtCreate":1568615786587,"gmtModify":1704718000590,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"开盘跳空高开后瞬间一泻千里是什么操作…","listText":"开盘跳空高开后瞬间一泻千里是什么操作…","text":"开盘跳空高开后瞬间一泻千里是什么操作…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930766045","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930867717,"gmtCreate":1568186944439,"gmtModify":1704717399888,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"入金第一天,模拟第一周~","listText":"入金第一天,模拟第一周~","text":"入金第一天,模拟第一周~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930867717","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":921611680,"gmtCreate":1586264242740,"gmtModify":1704360579120,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?为毛涨,理由?","listText":"?为毛涨,理由?","text":"?为毛涨,理由?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921611680","repostId":"1122756933","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122756933","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1586262414,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122756933?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-07 20:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前:全球市场高歌猛进,投资者信心倍增","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122756933","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月7日,美国股指期货集体走高。截至发稿时间,道指期货涨3.34%,纳指期货涨2.68%,标普500指数期货涨2.89%。航空股大涨,捷蓝航空涨近20%,美国联合航空涨超13%,美国航空集团涨超11%","content":"<p>4月7日,美国股指期货集体走高。截至发稿时间,道指期货涨<span>3.34%</span>,纳指期货涨2.68%,标普500指数期货涨2.89%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca1429f87ff9f417106b3998e7c3d55\" /></p><p>航空股大涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JBLU\">捷蓝航空</a>涨近20%,美国联合航空涨超13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>集团涨超11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>涨超10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>涨9.61%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>涨8.22%。</p><p><span>邮轮股大涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>涨17.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>涨16.48%,嘉年华涨17.73%。</span></p><p>菲亚特克莱斯特盘前涨8%,正寻求增加现金储备。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">梅西百货</a>盘前涨超10%,公司宣布首席财务官将离职。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>盘前暂涨5.51%,CEO Woods承诺保留股息。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前涨超10%,3月完成1533台交付,环比上涨116.8%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>盘前涨6.15%,昨日收跌近20%。</p><p><b>其他市场</b></p><p>欧股集体走高,截止发稿时间,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨3.49%,法国CAC40指数涨2.70%,德国DAX指数涨3.64%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a160a0d1a8835f3d42f9dd301cc2abe\" /></p><p>美、布两油集体上涨,截止发稿时间,布伦特原油涨2.63%,报33.89美元/桶,WTI原油涨2.39%,报26.88元/桶。</p><p>现货黄金跌0.81%,报1651.668美元/盎司。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前:全球市场高歌猛进,投资者信心倍增</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前:全球市场高歌猛进,投资者信心倍增\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-04-07 20:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>4月7日,美国股指期货集体走高。截至发稿时间,道指期货涨<span>3.34%</span>,纳指期货涨2.68%,标普500指数期货涨2.89%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca1429f87ff9f417106b3998e7c3d55\" /></p><p>航空股大涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JBLU\">捷蓝航空</a>涨近20%,美国联合航空涨超13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>集团涨超11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>涨超10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>涨9.61%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>涨8.22%。</p><p><span>邮轮股大涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>涨17.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>涨16.48%,嘉年华涨17.73%。</span></p><p>菲亚特克莱斯特盘前涨8%,正寻求增加现金储备。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">梅西百货</a>盘前涨超10%,公司宣布首席财务官将离职。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>盘前暂涨5.51%,CEO Woods承诺保留股息。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前涨超10%,3月完成1533台交付,环比上涨116.8%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>盘前涨6.15%,昨日收跌近20%。</p><p><b>其他市场</b></p><p>欧股集体走高,截止发稿时间,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨3.49%,法国CAC40指数涨2.70%,德国DAX指数涨3.64%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a160a0d1a8835f3d42f9dd301cc2abe\" /></p><p>美、布两油集体上涨,截止发稿时间,布伦特原油涨2.63%,报33.89美元/桶,WTI原油涨2.39%,报26.88元/桶。</p><p>现货黄金跌0.81%,报1651.668美元/盎司。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122756933","content_text":"4月7日,美国股指期货集体走高。截至发稿时间,道指期货涨3.34%,纳指期货涨2.68%,标普500指数期货涨2.89%。航空股大涨,捷蓝航空涨近20%,美国联合航空涨超13%,美国航空集团涨超11%,达美航空涨超10%,西南航空涨9.61%,波音涨8.22%。邮轮股大涨,皇家加勒比邮轮涨17.19%,挪威邮轮涨16.48%,嘉年华涨17.73%。菲亚特克莱斯特盘前涨8%,正寻求增加现金储备。梅西百货盘前涨超10%,公司宣布首席财务官将离职。埃克森美孚盘前暂涨5.51%,CEO Woods承诺保留股息。蔚来盘前涨超10%,3月完成1533台交付,环比上涨116.8%。瑞幸咖啡盘前涨6.15%,昨日收跌近20%。其他市场欧股集体走高,截止发稿时间,英国富时100指数涨3.49%,法国CAC40指数涨2.70%,德国DAX指数涨3.64%。美、布两油集体上涨,截止发稿时间,布伦特原油涨2.63%,报33.89美元/桶,WTI原油涨2.39%,报26.88元/桶。现货黄金跌0.81%,报1651.668美元/盎司。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989032433,"gmtCreate":1582643479222,"gmtModify":1704347138086,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高级……黑?","listText":"高级……黑?","text":"高级……黑?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/989032433","repostId":"1112647132","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921597686,"gmtCreate":1586313607945,"gmtModify":1704360828809,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"留底","listText":"留底","text":"留底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921597686","repostId":"1194095152","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929533024,"gmtCreate":1585504186368,"gmtModify":1704358118611,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个不错","listText":"这个不错","text":"这个不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929533024","repostId":"929501335","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":929501335,"gmtCreate":1585472162602,"gmtModify":1740212262551,"author":{"id":"3453943051225490","authorId":"3453943051225490","name":"许哲","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c46141457152637805577175903002ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3453943051225490","authorIdStr":"3453943051225490"},"themes":[],"title":"不对称责任下的疯狂套利","htmlText":"作者:许哲 链接:https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/114540200 来源:知乎 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近我在一个投资者朋友群里分享的一些看法,莫名其妙的被很多很多群到处转发,非常意外。你们大部分人应该见过了 其实里面的内容大部分我在下面这个回答里说过: 美股近四天暴跌超过10%对美国和全球经济有什么影响?(zhihu.com/question/375237651/answer/1049530175) 服务“打死不点击外部链接星人”,大概的意思重复一下,因为还在市场激战,没空收集数据+整理图标,凑合看吧。 前面的知乎问答里的论点:所有的股灾的根本原因是估值过高,而不是其他。有人说新冠病毒是原因,我认为只是诱因,新冠病毒前的股市估值已经很离谱了,突发的黑天鹅事件是刺穿泡沫的一个导火索。当然,这个事情本身的体量也是大得惊人。本来盈利水平已经对不起这个估值了,更何况全世界的经济活动要停摆半年,会让本来已经过高的估值的基准——上市公司盈利水平,更加雪上加霜。从而使得股灾,更加火上浇油。 上面那个问答里用几个指标衡量了股市高估的程度,但没有具体展开讲为什么估值会被一路推高,仅仅列举了美联储资产负债表的扩张和利率不断走低的事实,没有展开讲路径。被四处传的微信聊天记录里简单描述了一下,也不是很全面。大致来讲和次贷危机的处理方式有关: 当初次贷危机是一次大规模的“甩锅”行为。 银行本来给买房者放贷,然后收取买房者每个月缴纳的本息,获得利润。这个过程很漫长,鉴于提高资金周转率的目的。银行会把这笔“债权”打包成证券,转让给其他愿意等待,而自己缺乏资产的金融机构。 注意,这里的资产的定义是:“能够持续产生现金流的东西”。 房贷的债权包装的债券,就是符合这种定义的。只要你持有房贷打包债券,就可以每个月收入到按揭买房者支付的","listText":"作者:许哲 链接:https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/114540200 来源:知乎 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近我在一个投资者朋友群里分享的一些看法,莫名其妙的被很多很多群到处转发,非常意外。你们大部分人应该见过了 其实里面的内容大部分我在下面这个回答里说过: 美股近四天暴跌超过10%对美国和全球经济有什么影响?(zhihu.com/question/375237651/answer/1049530175) 服务“打死不点击外部链接星人”,大概的意思重复一下,因为还在市场激战,没空收集数据+整理图标,凑合看吧。 前面的知乎问答里的论点:所有的股灾的根本原因是估值过高,而不是其他。有人说新冠病毒是原因,我认为只是诱因,新冠病毒前的股市估值已经很离谱了,突发的黑天鹅事件是刺穿泡沫的一个导火索。当然,这个事情本身的体量也是大得惊人。本来盈利水平已经对不起这个估值了,更何况全世界的经济活动要停摆半年,会让本来已经过高的估值的基准——上市公司盈利水平,更加雪上加霜。从而使得股灾,更加火上浇油。 上面那个问答里用几个指标衡量了股市高估的程度,但没有具体展开讲为什么估值会被一路推高,仅仅列举了美联储资产负债表的扩张和利率不断走低的事实,没有展开讲路径。被四处传的微信聊天记录里简单描述了一下,也不是很全面。大致来讲和次贷危机的处理方式有关: 当初次贷危机是一次大规模的“甩锅”行为。 银行本来给买房者放贷,然后收取买房者每个月缴纳的本息,获得利润。这个过程很漫长,鉴于提高资金周转率的目的。银行会把这笔“债权”打包成证券,转让给其他愿意等待,而自己缺乏资产的金融机构。 注意,这里的资产的定义是:“能够持续产生现金流的东西”。 房贷的债权包装的债券,就是符合这种定义的。只要你持有房贷打包债券,就可以每个月收入到按揭买房者支付的","text":"作者:许哲 链接:https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/114540200 来源:知乎 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近我在一个投资者朋友群里分享的一些看法,莫名其妙的被很多很多群到处转发,非常意外。你们大部分人应该见过了 其实里面的内容大部分我在下面这个回答里说过: 美股近四天暴跌超过10%对美国和全球经济有什么影响?(zhihu.com/question/375237651/answer/1049530175) 服务“打死不点击外部链接星人”,大概的意思重复一下,因为还在市场激战,没空收集数据+整理图标,凑合看吧。 前面的知乎问答里的论点:所有的股灾的根本原因是估值过高,而不是其他。有人说新冠病毒是原因,我认为只是诱因,新冠病毒前的股市估值已经很离谱了,突发的黑天鹅事件是刺穿泡沫的一个导火索。当然,这个事情本身的体量也是大得惊人。本来盈利水平已经对不起这个估值了,更何况全世界的经济活动要停摆半年,会让本来已经过高的估值的基准——上市公司盈利水平,更加雪上加霜。从而使得股灾,更加火上浇油。 上面那个问答里用几个指标衡量了股市高估的程度,但没有具体展开讲为什么估值会被一路推高,仅仅列举了美联储资产负债表的扩张和利率不断走低的事实,没有展开讲路径。被四处传的微信聊天记录里简单描述了一下,也不是很全面。大致来讲和次贷危机的处理方式有关: 当初次贷危机是一次大规模的“甩锅”行为。 银行本来给买房者放贷,然后收取买房者每个月缴纳的本息,获得利润。这个过程很漫长,鉴于提高资金周转率的目的。银行会把这笔“债权”打包成证券,转让给其他愿意等待,而自己缺乏资产的金融机构。 注意,这里的资产的定义是:“能够持续产生现金流的东西”。 房贷的债权包装的债券,就是符合这种定义的。只要你持有房贷打包债券,就可以每个月收入到按揭买房者支付的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c9fcd516e5437c8f1158ecc63141ad"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1770f2d16d684be9975db77f678ddd04"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed356f33df24243b9b3d4c24509e1d8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929501335","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929900166,"gmtCreate":1585184578555,"gmtModify":1704357280584,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"记录一下。","listText":"记录一下。","text":"记录一下。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929900166","repostId":"967449830","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":967449830,"gmtCreate":1584687174819,"gmtModify":1744855614305,"author":{"id":"37000856390400","authorId":"37000856390400","name":"小虎通知","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/40ff9573326cbdce8ed2a4976ed63455","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"37000856390400","authorIdStr":"37000856390400"},"themes":[],"title":"【重要通知】原油ETN-UWT和DWT即将进入清算","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWT\">$三倍做空原油ETN(DWT)$</a> 花旗环球金融控股(CGMHI)今天宣布,将加速处理(Optional Acceleration Redemption Amount)其发行的两只原油相关ETNs:意思就是要清算这两只ETN。 持有这两只ETN的投资者,将按最后估值日的的价值结算成等额现金。预计于2020年4月2日关闭交易。 具体文档查询: <a href=\"https://r.tigerbbs.com/lrag\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/200245/000095010320005510/dp124148_424b3-uwtdwta10.htm</a>","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWT\">$三倍做空原油ETN(DWT)$</a> 花旗环球金融控股(CGMHI)今天宣布,将加速处理(Optional Acceleration Redemption Amount)其发行的两只原油相关ETNs:意思就是要清算这两只ETN。 持有这两只ETN的投资者,将按最后估值日的的价值结算成等额现金。预计于2020年4月2日关闭交易。 具体文档查询: <a href=\"https://r.tigerbbs.com/lrag\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/200245/000095010320005510/dp124148_424b3-uwtdwta10.htm</a>","text":"$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$ $三倍做空原油ETN(DWT)$ 花旗环球金融控股(CGMHI)今天宣布,将加速处理(Optional Acceleration Redemption Amount)其发行的两只原油相关ETNs:意思就是要清算这两只ETN。 持有这两只ETN的投资者,将按最后估值日的的价值结算成等额现金。预计于2020年4月2日关闭交易。 具体文档查询: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/200245/000095010320005510/dp124148_424b3-uwtdwta10.htm","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af948bdb17ba058d21017a9b983a317a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967449830","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929029302,"gmtCreate":1585156949106,"gmtModify":1704357226015,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没法关注?","listText":"没法关注?","text":"没法关注?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929029302","repostId":"1138582340","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":981111238,"gmtCreate":1583547723024,"gmtModify":1704350269880,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一点干货都没的泛泛而谈型文章","listText":"一点干货都没的泛泛而谈型文章","text":"一点干货都没的泛泛而谈型文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981111238","repostId":"2017582965","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2017582965","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1583493690,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2017582965?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-06 19:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中美ETF疯狂 华尔街传奇大空头:泡沫破裂声传来 08年终将重现","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2017582965","media":"金融界","summary":"看空美股的声音越来越浓了…最近一周时间内,暴涨暴跌千点的道指,让“船上”的每个人都神经紧绷。而在上一次金融危机中一战成名的大空头Michael Burry,似乎早已为这一次美股巨震写下了剧本。1这次崩","content":"<html><body><p>看空美股的声音越来越浓了…</p><p>最近一周时间内,暴涨暴跌千点的道指,让“船上”的每个人都神经紧绷。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_10/BDA9F8CDA742F7429A854F65C8280175D4A5C5CE_w541_h324.png\"/></p><p>而在上一次金融危机中一战成名的大空头Michael Burry,似乎早已为这一次美股巨震写下了剧本。</p><p>1</p><p>这次崩掉的将是美股ETF</p><p>2019年9月,Michael Burry接受采访时罕见说出了自己的担忧,他认为,大量的资金涌入指数基金和交易所交易基金等被动投资资产,这与2008年前的CDO泡沫有相似之处,毫无疑问,这种复杂的证券在十年前几乎摧毁了全球金融体系。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_10/4A1D8D1BFF408AE05E57A30EE2656699892F51C7_w621_h382.jpg\"/></p><p>Michael Burry预警,如今指数基金也是同样的危险。</p><p>这次美股的暴跌不自觉让人们重新审视这位大空头的预言。</p><p>在过去的十年时间里,美股稳如巨轮,画出十年牛市,背后与ETF份额的涌入不无关系。美银美林统计,随着越来越多的投资者避开股票,涌向指数基金,被动投资目前已占据了股市近一半的份额。在不到10年的时间里,股票型被动基金就膨胀至逾3万亿美元的规模。</p><p>在Burry看来,ETF导致大量资金没有经过价格发现的过程,就配置了股票。巨资正在扭曲股票和债券的价格。资金流动一旦在某个时候逆转,“情况将变得非常糟糕”。</p><p><strong>2</strong></p><p><strong>“战胜”欧美的A股半导体</strong></p><p>如果你对美股疯狂的ETF没有感觉,举个A股“迷你版”的例子。</p><p>今年以来A股科技股持续火爆,科技类ETF炙手可热。在巨大的关注和流量下,史上首支首募规模超100亿元的科技类ETF横空出世,同时不少类似产品上市后规模爆炸式增长。</p><p>截至2月末,华夏5GETF的规模超过200亿元,华宝科技ETF超130亿元,华夏芯片ETF、国泰半导体50ETF均超过120亿元。多只份额翻倍,成交额领跑股票型ETF。</p><p>于是A股出现恐怖一幕。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600703\">三安光电</a>市值可以买下全世界所有的GaAs代工与全部LED厂商,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603160\">汇顶科技</a>市值可以买下联发科,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603501\">韦尔股份</a>市值超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">赛灵思</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">意法半导体</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300782\">卓胜微</a>市值比肩Qorvo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600745\">闻泰科技</a>赶上了NXP...</strong></p><p><strong>A股半导体就这样了“赶超”了日欧美,而利润只有美股巨头们零头的零头。</strong></p><p><strong>3</strong></p><p><strong>传奇的大空头</strong></p><p><strong>舞池音乐终究会走向休止...</strong></p><p>没有人可以忽视大空头Michael Burry的预警,因为上次金融危机的押注就证明了。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_10/0BADF2EF6753510ACD91574BD87002B204DFA546_w410_h444.png\"/></p><p>Michael Burry本人从2005年开始做空抵押贷款证券,但结果直到2008年才危机爆发。因此,在2005年和2006年,Burry的市场表现并不突出。</p><p>但2007下半年危机爆发,华尔街哀鸿遍野一片狼藉,Burry证明了自己,这一次耐心和预言让他一战成名。</p><p>Burry成立的管理规模仅6亿美元的Scion在2007年为投资者赚了7.5亿美元。</p><p>Burry曾经说过,</p><p>“Investors who have never really experienced a bubble will usually relax their investment standards after having a string of homeruns. This almost always leads to disaster, which we saw it in the most recent crisis. ”</p><p>没有经历过泡沫的投资者,狂赚后自然会放松标准,最后一定栽到坑里。</p><p>美国的ETF基金就像极了下一个Burry口中华丽的泡沫,不过,这个泡沫究竟何时会破裂?以何种方式破裂?拭目以待。</p><p><strong>4</strong></p><p><strong>特朗普的“KPI”悬了</strong></p><p>可以肯定的是,ETF已然是非常庞大了。</p><p>这种规模的加速背后也有老牌传奇投资人的持续“背书”。无论是林奇还是巴菲特,都一直在向大众灌输一种逻辑,那就是ETF基金最安全,收益能跑赢大部分主动基金,费率还更低。</p><p>投资ETF基金绝对不会错的这种假设导致越来越多人无脑买入,而不问其资金来源、收益目标、风险承受力如何。</p><p>这种ETF的投资思路,最终导致的将会是僵化的投资机制,使其本身缺少价值发现功能,资金流动与溢价机会全被集中在规模最大、被纳入指数的那些大公司里面。</p><p>牛市时,大家买指数,一起狂欢;熊市来时,投资人扎堆抛售指数基金,就算基本面良好的公司也将遭遇成倍猛烈的跌势。</p><p>目前能看到一个现象是,由于ETF基金过于庞大,导致维稳这一指数成了不少政治家的“KPI”,无论是特朗普还是鲍威尔,如今都对于指数战战兢兢。</p><p>有人说,现在美股的ETF,像极了庞氏发展的过程,但如果涌入一个策略的资金过量,最终造成的无疑是策略的失效,最后无论是特朗普还是鲍威尔,估计都无法控制这样的天量资金出逃。</p><p>没有什么会永远坚挺,泰坦尼克号终究驶向了沉没。载着万亿美金的ETF巨轮会否有朝一日也将难逃泰坦尼克号的命运,驶向崩塌…</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_10/A4A4FFEE1EB457AA7926B94C56EABFA8C694072E_w565_h304.jpg\"/></p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中美ETF疯狂 华尔街传奇大空头:泡沫破裂声传来 08年终将重现</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中美ETF疯狂 华尔街传奇大空头:泡沫破裂声传来 08年终将重现\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-06 19:21 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.ifeng.com/c/7ucqHBWOBiC><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>看空美股的声音越来越浓了…最近一周时间内,暴涨暴跌千点的道指,让“船上”的每个人都神经紧绷。而在上一次金融危机中一战成名的大空头Michael Burry,似乎早已为这一次美股巨震写下了剧本。1这次崩掉的将是美股ETF2019年9月,Michael Burry接受采访时罕见说出了自己的担忧,他认为,大量的资金涌入指数基金和交易所交易基金等被动投资资产,这与2008年前的CDO泡沫有相似之处,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/7ucqHBWOBiC\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://d.ifengimg.com/w144_h80_q70/x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_10/A4A4FFEE1EB457AA7926B94C56EABFA8C694072E_w565_h304.jpg","relate_stocks":{"PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/7ucqHBWOBiC","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2017582965","content_text":"看空美股的声音越来越浓了…最近一周时间内,暴涨暴跌千点的道指,让“船上”的每个人都神经紧绷。而在上一次金融危机中一战成名的大空头Michael Burry,似乎早已为这一次美股巨震写下了剧本。1这次崩掉的将是美股ETF2019年9月,Michael Burry接受采访时罕见说出了自己的担忧,他认为,大量的资金涌入指数基金和交易所交易基金等被动投资资产,这与2008年前的CDO泡沫有相似之处,毫无疑问,这种复杂的证券在十年前几乎摧毁了全球金融体系。Michael Burry预警,如今指数基金也是同样的危险。这次美股的暴跌不自觉让人们重新审视这位大空头的预言。在过去的十年时间里,美股稳如巨轮,画出十年牛市,背后与ETF份额的涌入不无关系。美银美林统计,随着越来越多的投资者避开股票,涌向指数基金,被动投资目前已占据了股市近一半的份额。在不到10年的时间里,股票型被动基金就膨胀至逾3万亿美元的规模。在Burry看来,ETF导致大量资金没有经过价格发现的过程,就配置了股票。巨资正在扭曲股票和债券的价格。资金流动一旦在某个时候逆转,“情况将变得非常糟糕”。2“战胜”欧美的A股半导体如果你对美股疯狂的ETF没有感觉,举个A股“迷你版”的例子。今年以来A股科技股持续火爆,科技类ETF炙手可热。在巨大的关注和流量下,史上首支首募规模超100亿元的科技类ETF横空出世,同时不少类似产品上市后规模爆炸式增长。截至2月末,华夏5GETF的规模超过200亿元,华宝科技ETF超130亿元,华夏芯片ETF、国泰半导体50ETF均超过120亿元。多只份额翻倍,成交额领跑股票型ETF。于是A股出现恐怖一幕。三安光电市值可以买下全世界所有的GaAs代工与全部LED厂商,汇顶科技市值可以买下联发科,韦尔股份市值超过了赛灵思和意法半导体,卓胜微市值比肩Qorvo,闻泰科技赶上了NXP...A股半导体就这样了“赶超”了日欧美,而利润只有美股巨头们零头的零头。3传奇的大空头舞池音乐终究会走向休止...没有人可以忽视大空头Michael Burry的预警,因为上次金融危机的押注就证明了。Michael Burry本人从2005年开始做空抵押贷款证券,但结果直到2008年才危机爆发。因此,在2005年和2006年,Burry的市场表现并不突出。但2007下半年危机爆发,华尔街哀鸿遍野一片狼藉,Burry证明了自己,这一次耐心和预言让他一战成名。Burry成立的管理规模仅6亿美元的Scion在2007年为投资者赚了7.5亿美元。Burry曾经说过,“Investors who have never really experienced a bubble will usually relax their investment standards after having a string of homeruns. This almost always leads to disaster, which we saw it in the most recent crisis. ”没有经历过泡沫的投资者,狂赚后自然会放松标准,最后一定栽到坑里。美国的ETF基金就像极了下一个Burry口中华丽的泡沫,不过,这个泡沫究竟何时会破裂?以何种方式破裂?拭目以待。4特朗普的“KPI”悬了可以肯定的是,ETF已然是非常庞大了。这种规模的加速背后也有老牌传奇投资人的持续“背书”。无论是林奇还是巴菲特,都一直在向大众灌输一种逻辑,那就是ETF基金最安全,收益能跑赢大部分主动基金,费率还更低。投资ETF基金绝对不会错的这种假设导致越来越多人无脑买入,而不问其资金来源、收益目标、风险承受力如何。这种ETF的投资思路,最终导致的将会是僵化的投资机制,使其本身缺少价值发现功能,资金流动与溢价机会全被集中在规模最大、被纳入指数的那些大公司里面。牛市时,大家买指数,一起狂欢;熊市来时,投资人扎堆抛售指数基金,就算基本面良好的公司也将遭遇成倍猛烈的跌势。目前能看到一个现象是,由于ETF基金过于庞大,导致维稳这一指数成了不少政治家的“KPI”,无论是特朗普还是鲍威尔,如今都对于指数战战兢兢。有人说,现在美股的ETF,像极了庞氏发展的过程,但如果涌入一个策略的资金过量,最终造成的无疑是策略的失效,最后无论是特朗普还是鲍威尔,估计都无法控制这样的天量资金出逃。没有什么会永远坚挺,泰坦尼克号终究驶向了沉没。载着万亿美金的ETF巨轮会否有朝一日也将难逃泰坦尼克号的命运,驶向崩塌…","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":939291559,"gmtCreate":1569024217671,"gmtModify":1704718810478,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUGT\">$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$</a> 今天见识到了散户的疯狂~","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUGT\">$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$</a> 今天见识到了散户的疯狂~","text":"$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$ 今天见识到了散户的疯狂~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/939291559","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":939925389,"gmtCreate":1568742083441,"gmtModify":1704718263898,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUGT\">$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$</a> 多空博弈中","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUGT\">$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$</a> 多空博弈中","text":"$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$ 多空博弈中","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/939925389","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930766045,"gmtCreate":1568615786587,"gmtModify":1704718000590,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"开盘跳空高开后瞬间一泻千里是什么操作…","listText":"开盘跳空高开后瞬间一泻千里是什么操作…","text":"开盘跳空高开后瞬间一泻千里是什么操作…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930766045","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930867717,"gmtCreate":1568186944439,"gmtModify":1704717399888,"author":{"id":"3530240513207604","authorId":"3530240513207604","name":"一刀客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b65815822d405a6beb5b75b6ef3600","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530240513207604","authorIdStr":"3530240513207604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"入金第一天,模拟第一周~","listText":"入金第一天,模拟第一周~","text":"入金第一天,模拟第一周~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930867717","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}