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疯狂止损再追高

疯狂止损再追高

2020-7-20

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疯狂止损再追高

2021-01-12

账户上还有5000刀，买什么期权最好，大佬请指点，我必跟随您的步伐[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] $优步(UBER)$$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$$Snap Inc(SNAP)$EA PLTR SWKS TAL

疯狂止损再追高

2020-08-05

$蘑菇街(MOGU)$ 成本5.51，玩尼🐎

疯狂止损再追高

2020-07-29

$理想汽车(LI)$[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] 妈呀全份确认，我这是该高兴，还是该担心呢

疯狂止损再追高

2020-07-28

$蔚来(NIO)$ 我开12.33卖。。。

疯狂止损再追高

2020-10-19

$优信(UXIN)$ 提前布局，这只股今天不妖，过两天要妖起来

疯狂止损再追高

2020-12-01

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$能进吗？大家看到多少

疯狂止损再追高

2020-10-21

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$我不玩了，还钱

疯狂止损再追高

2020-12-14

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$开始做空

疯狂止损再追高

2020-10-21

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$美国这些沙币领导，争来争去，民事都给你们耽误了，能不能做点速度的决策，现在就像个娘们国，不是美国

疯狂止损再追高

2020-08-07

$蘑菇街(MOGU)$凉

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26抄底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399585942","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399397813,"gmtCreate":1605927151632,"gmtModify":1703840514559,"author":{"id":"3533099874173748","authorId":"3533099874173748","name":"疯狂止损再追高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8cedf165af4154e336dd6881b3ee80","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3533099874173748","idStr":"3533099874173748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈我也看到了懵了，3流媒体","listText":"哈哈我也看到了懵了，3流媒体","text":"哈哈我也看到了懵了，3流媒体","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399397813","repostId":"1159204067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159204067","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605860073,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159204067?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-20 16:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来，小鹏，理想哪家好？收好这份最全对比","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159204067","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着三季度理想和小鹏相继上市，中国的三家造车新势力股价一路高涨，10月以来蔚来、理想和小鹏三只股票涨幅均超100%。\n如果把时间轴拉长，三家造车新势力表现令人瞩目。理想自7月30日上市以来，股价累计上","content":"<p>随着三季度理想和小鹏相继上市，中国的三家造车新势力股价一路高涨，10月以来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、理想和小鹏三只股票涨幅均超100%。</p>\n<p>如果把时间轴拉长，三家造车新势力表现令人瞩目。理想自7月30日上市以来，股价累计上涨219%；小鹏8月27日上市以来，股价累计上涨220%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>今年以来股价的涨幅达到了惊人的1100%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd16f56fe0356c73ec97471164f9ac28\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>股价上涨的背后，是市场需求的大幅增长。</p>\n<p>中国汽车工业协会报告显示，10月新能源市场表现尤为突出，本年度第4次刷新当月历史记录。10月新能源汽车销售16万辆，同比增长达104.5%，环比增速13.9%。其中，新能源乘用车销售达到14.8万辆，同比增速达113.3%——这其中，纯电动车增速更为迅猛，同比增速达到128.8%，销售量达到12.2万辆。</p>\n<p>销量大增也带动新能源汽车企业业绩大幅提升。国家统计局公布的最新数据显示，10月汽车产量增长11.1%，其中新能源汽车大增94.1%。</p>\n<p><b>造车新势力黎明已至</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">方正证券</a>在最新研报中从三季度收入、盈利、现金流、产品定位、产能、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>驾驶技术等方方面面横向和纵向对比了三家造车新势力的发展，认为造车新势力的黎明已经到来。</p>\n<p>这份题为《造车新势力三季报总结：黎明已至，预计全年收入高速增长》的报告表示，受益于整车销量高增长，以及补贴大幅退坡加速行业低端产能退出，竞争力更强、服务更好的造车新势力持续发力。</p>\n<p><b>20Q3三个造车新势力单季总收入90.3亿元，环比增长达44.3%；</b>预计Q4营收将持续增长，蔚来、小鹏、理想四季度预期营收分别为63.5、22.0、32.5 亿元。</p>\n<p><b>交付数据也持续高增，方正预计造车新势力交付量全年合计占总新能车销量比例超10%。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n 蔚来10月交付量为5055辆，环比增长7.4%，M1-M10交付量为31430 辆；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 小鹏10月交付量为3040辆，环比下降12.6%，M1-M10交付量为17117 辆；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 理想10月交付量为 3692，M1-M10交付量为21852辆，环比增长5.4%。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>虽然各公司离整体盈利仍有差距，但随着规模效应的优势凸显，毛利提升势头强劲。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n 其中小鹏Q3毛利率4.6%，首次转正；理想Q3毛利率19.8%，连续三季度提升；蔚来Q3毛利率12.9%，环比提升4.5个pct。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>除了收入和盈利两个指标外，三家造车新势力的经营性现金流均大幅改善。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n 蔚来20H1 经营性现金流净流出收窄至5.2亿元；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 小鹏20H1经营性现金流净流出为12.1亿元；\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 理想经营性现金流于20Q2转正，Q3持续扩大。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>从产品上来看，三家造车新势力侧重不同的细分市场，但是不约而同的都在由代工厂向自建工厂转型，提升产品质量的管控能力。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n 蔚来：走高端路线，产品为纯电动，SUV类型车，百公里加速时间最短；蔚来由江淮工厂合作建厂生产，目前在规划上海第二工厂，预计2022年产能达25万辆。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 理想：价格次之，为增程式驱动，SUV类型车，百公里加速排在第二；理想自建常州工厂预计 2022年扩产至20万辆。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 小鹏：价格最亲民，产品为纯电动，有一款三厢轿车，百公里加速排第三；小鹏自建肇庆工厂年产能达10万辆，代工厂郑州海马年产能达15万辆，自建广州工厂已经开工预计2022年建成，建成后完全由自建厂房生产。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>驾驶技术上看，三家都在从依赖供应商转向自主研发。</b>方正预计，未来三年新势力将会逐步加大自主研发的力度，建立全栈软件开发能力。</p>\n<p><i>以下是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">方正证券</a>对三家造车新势力的具体分析：</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>蔚来：指引营收超150亿，第四款车型发布在即收入提升较快，成本控制效果显著。</b>20Q3 蔚来营业收入45.3亿元，同比增加146.4%，环比增长21.7%，汽车交付量提升较快，Q3交付量达1.2万辆，同比增长154.3%，环比增加18.2%；Q3毛利润显著增加，亏损较Q2收窄44.4％，主要由于公司Q3运营优化和费用控制及疫情期间加强成本控制措施效果显著。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c0e99b7ea8b065a1bc33dbb1549242b\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"482\">\n <b>交付量增长迅速，再创历史新高。</b>蔚来10月交付量达 5,055 辆，同比增长100.12%。蔚来 Q3 共交付12,206 辆，同比增长154.34%，Q3交付量创历史新高。江淮工厂月产量约5000 辆，蔚来品牌的第4款车型也将于江淮工厂投产，预计Q4交付量有望达10,000 辆。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a770ec6f9fdbaa0be3bad8c8d8de2d23\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"380\">\n <b>定位高端市场，差异化确立竞争优势。</b>蔚来车型走高端路线，以马力足、续航持久、空间充足为特点。各车型百公里加速均在5秒以内，最大功率达400kW，售价在40万元及以上。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d9a0114bd5fe3de5b7c01743f270cf\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"445\">\n <b>智能软件支持多功能，自动驾驶居行业领先水平。</b>蔚来汽车智软件NIO OS具有自动辅助驾驶系统NIO Pilo，智能助手NOMI，音频版的蔚来社区-NIO Radio等功能；NIO Pilot达到了L2 自动驾驶级别，与特斯科拉的Autopilot自动驾驶系统类似。NIO Pilot由12个超声波传感器、5个毫米波雷达、1个前向三目摄像头、4个环视摄像头、以及一个驾驶状态监测摄像头组成；NOMI的语音技术得到了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">科大讯飞</a>的支持；NIO Radio为蔚来和用户沟通的重要平辆；同时还接入了QQ音乐、喜马拉雅FM、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>地图等常用的应用，并进行专门的应用级优化。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>毛利率改善，费用率下行，净利率稳步上升。</b>公司毛利率有较大提升， 20Q2毛利率首次转正，20Q3毛利率达12.9%，环比增长4.5pct，主要由于交付量稳步提升和成本控制能力增强； Q3 费用率控制好，研发费率及销售费率分别降至13.1%和 20.8%，环比分别下降1.6pct和 4.4pct，总体呈下降态势；Q3净利率为-23.13%，环比增长8.5pct，未来仍有继续向上空间。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27a2b1774724e5df2fa8e40ca1fe0140\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"328\">\n <b>研发投入持续增加，设计开发费用占比高。</b>公司研发投入逐年增加，19年总投入达44.3亿元，同比增长10.8%，其中设计开发费和员工薪酬占比较高，19年分别为46.1%和45.3%；设计开发费用维持高增速，19年同比增速达11.7%； 公司维持高研发投入，注重技术创新。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af22f8a30df588692c5d2154a1a879d\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"339\">\n <b>资产结构大幅改善，资产流动性增强。</b>20Q3流动性资产达263.3亿元，同比增长275.5%，环比增长74.5%，流动性资产总量大幅提升；Q3货币资金占比、短期投资占比分别为73.4%、10.3%。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e48a04c0b4c697c30d5081709ea7158\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"333\">\n <b>负债稳定，长期借款为主。</b>20Q3总负债为202.2亿元，环比减少10.6%，债务主要来源于长期借款；长期借贷、应付账款及票据占比分别为33.5%、24.4%。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57bd5ae0669ac815d93f024c6638b6c1\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"327\">\n <b>产能持续扩张，自建工厂已开始规划。</b>公司由合作工厂向自建工厂转型，公司目前主要依托江淮工厂生产，年产能为15万辆；目前蔚来正在规划上海第二工厂，预计2022年满产年产能达25万辆。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88142a1eafb2d2b354410d4dedc5c3a\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"223\">\n <b>小鹏：毛利首次转正，加大投入自建工厂营收创历史新高，公司首次扭亏为盈。</b>公司Q3营业收入19.9亿元，同比增长342.5%，环比增长236.9%，20 Q1-Q3营业收入约29.9亿元，同比增长78.0%，主要由于汽车交付量持续增长；Q3交付量达8578辆，同比增长71.6%；毛利润达0.9亿元，公司首次扭亏为盈；广州制造基地开始动工，预计2022年建成，年产能10万辆。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1302cb1832970f71f2fadc5cbd86d924\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"425\">\n <b>交付量小幅减少，预计Q4恢复增长。</b>10月交付量达3040 辆，较上月小幅下降，环比减少 12.6%，20M1-M10总销量达17117辆，预计未来交付量将维持高位。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadb4efa9e2fa16a619549ec6af9d6f1\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"437\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>型号分为P7和G3，标准版（P7 智行版、G3智享46i）售价分别为16.98、25.49万元，G3较P7性能更为优越，续航 706km、百公里加速6.7秒、最大功率196kW。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd230942664c3def63d6be521df95368\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"700\">\n <b>智能系统支持多场景应用，手机APP实现智能化联动。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>智能软件系统Xmart OS具有语音助手“小P”、OTA平辆、APP远程操控、智能导航功能。语音助手“小P”使用触控+语音的方式对用户使用习惯进行引导过度，致力于用自然的语音交互完全替代传统的车机操作；整车OTA通过“全语音车载系统”以及整个软硬件和底层架构打通，将这种“开放可能性”延伸到了未来更多元、更个性的用车场景中。手机下载小鹏汽车APP连接，即可实现远程操控车辆，可使用手机控制空调、车窗的开闭、寻车和查找充电桩，遥控摄像头查看车周边环境等。智能导航配备的是高德定制地图，数据储备丰富定位精准，并且能显示小鹏汽车超级充电桩的位置，此外，这块中控屏幕还能与液晶仪表实现智能化联动，同步显示行车、导航即娱乐等方面的信息。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>毛利率首次转正，费用率管控良好，净利率亏损收窄。</b>Q3毛利率为4.6%，环比增长7.4pct，首次由负转正；研发费用率和销售、行政及一般费率分别为13.3%、13.6%，环比分别减少 50.0pct，66.0pct，费用率自20年来维持下降趋势；净利率为-57.5%，相比H1亏损大幅收窄。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eee5e1f1072d86b7a11712903076155\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"665\">\n <b>流动性资产显著增加，流动资金近80%。</b>Q3 流动资金大幅增加，主要由于交付量增加迅速而获得流动性资金；货币资金、短期投资占比分别为52%、25%。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31a6baff9c08ea1c4b53b8608bccaaa\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"286\">\n <b>负债稳定，应付账款占比较高。</b>Q3负债总额达80.7亿元，公司订单量增加导致负债同比大幅增长；公司应付账款及长期借款占比较大，分别为43.3%、20.7%。公司20H1资本支出为5.2亿元，较去年同期明显减少，近期公司与广州政府签署合作协议，年产10万辆汽车的广州智造基地已经开工，预计未来公司资本性支出将回归高位。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8165317602988a6e1e209272eed2f4e5\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"364\">\n <b>产能加速扩张，广州基地已开始建设。</b>公司现有两处生产基地，分别为海马汽车代工厂和自建肇庆工厂； 2017年与海马代工厂签署合作协议，主要代工生产小鹏G3；肇庆工厂一期项目产能规划为10万辆/年，并在2020年3月底进入批量生产；广州制造基地已经破土动工，预计2022年建成，年产能达10万辆。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>市场高度景气，渗透率有望加速提升。</b>10月小鹏汽车渗透率达2.3%，市场需求持续扩大，随着公司未来产能进一步扩张，未来仍有较大向上渗透空间。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27c667d18cbf70658757f296dc5a6822\" tg-width=\"844\" tg-height=\"405\">\n <b>理想：短期仍坚持增程式，召回未影响新订单收入提升较快，交付量新高。</b>20Q3理想营业收入25.11亿元，环比增长28.94%，汽车交付量提升较快，Q3理想ONE 交付量达8660辆，环比增长31.13%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>20Q1产生收入，目前仍处于亏损阶段，其中20Q3营业利润-1.8亿元，主要由于公司仍处于产能建设周期和线下渠道扩张期。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01751509090aa97f96b1ecd16f8e13f\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"779\">\n <b>理想ONE定位中高端SUV，</b>标准版（增程6座）售价为32.8万元，续航180km、百公里加速6.5秒、最大功率240kW。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>智能系统持续升级，软件功能齐全。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>智能操作系统Li OS具有包括整车控制、自动驾驶等功能，目前正在研发推进中。研发系统的思路也参照了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>：第一代产品完成了终端，第二代产品实现了自己的硬件集成和实时操作系统，第三代产品做到了自己的芯片。理想汽车计划在研发第二代产品的路线上，自主掌握实时操作系统。目前理想ONE软件系统配备了大量的智能应用，具备在线听歌、追剧及导航一应俱全，目前已经上线了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>视频、喜马拉雅有声读物、理想音乐、FM (电辆)、高德地图、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>地图、声控游戏等功能。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>毛利率改善，费用率稳定。</b>公司毛利率有较好提升，20Q3环比增加6.4%，主要由于上游材料降价和规模化效应带来成本下降，未来仍有继续向上空间；费用率20Q1以来控制较好，三季度略有提升，主要由于公司对员工股权激励和授予股票期权，导致20Q3净利率小幅下降。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1adb637475e8ea67db4f320641c7b3a4\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"622\">\n <b>研发投入中设计开发费超50%，</b>公司19年研发费用达 6.0亿元，同比增长42.4%，其中设计开发费用和员工薪酬占研发费用比重最高，分别达51.6%和39.5%。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd22ccb79360b936ab1d4e7541da3ce7\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"379\">\n <b>公司资产流动性大幅改善。</b>相比2019下半年及2020上半年，2020年Q3流动性资产总量增幅明显，为205.77亿元，同比增幅292.70%，主要由于公司IPO的完成和定向增发的进行。在20Q3 财报中显示，定期存款及其他短期投资、货币资金、存货、受限制现金占比分别为 58.83%、31.45%、4.20%、1.65%。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/441d5e7587bb44ddb862901f1d065216\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"306\">\n <b>负债稳定，主要为应付账款。</b>2020 年Q3 负债总量为50.52亿元，环比下降2.6亿元，2020 年以来订单量增加，公司加进投入和生产，负债较2019年有所增加，其中应付账款及票据是主要债务来源，应付账款及票据、长期借贷占比分别为41.0%、10.0%。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ada838a8224c0c7411ada0796878196\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"314\">\n <b>投资力度大幅提升。</b>20Q3公司投资活动现金流支出大增98.8亿元，未公布具体项目额度，相比前面多个报告期增长较大，业务扩张将加速。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e2c1ec70c002f11c29f084b254a4\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"373\">\n <b>代工厂向自建工厂转型，带来更低的成本和更有效的产品质量控制。</b>公司现有一处自建工厂，江苏常州制造工厂。与其他新势力采用OEM代工的方式不同，工厂于2019年完工，此时理想汽车已成立4年。该工厂具备了冲压、焊装、涂装和总装四大车间，一条路测场地。一期年产能达10万辆，预计未来年产能可达20万辆。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f229774bddb5457ffdc23c19a86c51f1\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"151\">\n <b>订单增速未受召回影响，</b>理想汽车占新能源车销量稳定3%，车辆召回占总销量比率达46%。11月7日起，公司宣布大规模召回生产日期在2019年11月14日至2020年6月1日的理想ONE电动汽车，共计10469辆。截止2020年10月，公司总交付量不到 2.3万辆，召回占比接近公司总交付量的一半。从宣布召回至今，公司订单量并未受到明显影响，新增订单增速与召回前保持一致。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34654ae7ad1f2bf46ba9d59e3a07690d\" tg-width=\"557\" tg-height=\"370\">\n <b>理想占比稳定，未来仍有向上渗透空间。</b>7月全<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>乘用车回暖以来，理想的销量占全国销量的比例稳定维持在3%左右，公司的服务和驾乘体验更好，向上渗透空间大。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f766e7257d6964989c11181d57b86b\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"409\">\n</blockquote>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来，小鹏，理想哪家好？收好这份最全对比</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来，小鹏，理想哪家好？收好这份最全对比\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-20 16:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3611055><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着三季度理想和小鹏相继上市，中国的三家造车新势力股价一路高涨，10月以来蔚来、理想和小鹏三只股票涨幅均超100%。\n如果把时间轴拉长，三家造车新势力表现令人瞩目。理想自7月30日上市以来，股价累计上涨219%；小鹏8月27日上市以来，股价累计上涨220%；蔚来今年以来股价的涨幅达到了惊人的1100%。\n\n股价上涨的背后，是市场需求的大幅增长。\n中国汽车工业协会报告显示，10月新能源市场表现尤为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3611055\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd3f944cb946cded615557bb29da37d8","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3611055","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1159204067","content_text":"随着三季度理想和小鹏相继上市，中国的三家造车新势力股价一路高涨，10月以来蔚来、理想和小鹏三只股票涨幅均超100%。\n如果把时间轴拉长，三家造车新势力表现令人瞩目。理想自7月30日上市以来，股价累计上涨219%；小鹏8月27日上市以来，股价累计上涨220%；蔚来今年以来股价的涨幅达到了惊人的1100%。\n\n股价上涨的背后，是市场需求的大幅增长。\n中国汽车工业协会报告显示，10月新能源市场表现尤为突出，本年度第4次刷新当月历史记录。10月新能源汽车销售16万辆，同比增长达104.5%，环比增速13.9%。其中，新能源乘用车销售达到14.8万辆，同比增速达113.3%——这其中，纯电动车增速更为迅猛，同比增速达到128.8%，销售量达到12.2万辆。\n销量大增也带动新能源汽车企业业绩大幅提升。国家统计局公布的最新数据显示，10月汽车产量增长11.1%，其中新能源汽车大增94.1%。\n造车新势力黎明已至\n方正证券在最新研报中从三季度收入、盈利、现金流、产品定位、产能、智能驾驶技术等方方面面横向和纵向对比了三家造车新势力的发展，认为造车新势力的黎明已经到来。\n这份题为《造车新势力三季报总结：黎明已至，预计全年收入高速增长》的报告表示，受益于整车销量高增长，以及补贴大幅退坡加速行业低端产能退出，竞争力更强、服务更好的造车新势力持续发力。\n20Q3三个造车新势力单季总收入90.3亿元，环比增长达44.3%；预计Q4营收将持续增长，蔚来、小鹏、理想四季度预期营收分别为63.5、22.0、32.5 亿元。\n交付数据也持续高增，方正预计造车新势力交付量全年合计占总新能车销量比例超10%。\n\n 蔚来10月交付量为5055辆，环比增长7.4%，M1-M10交付量为31430 辆；\n\n\n 小鹏10月交付量为3040辆，环比下降12.6%，M1-M10交付量为17117 辆；\n\n\n 理想10月交付量为 3692，M1-M10交付量为21852辆，环比增长5.4%。\n\n虽然各公司离整体盈利仍有差距，但随着规模效应的优势凸显，毛利提升势头强劲。\n\n 其中小鹏Q3毛利率4.6%，首次转正；理想Q3毛利率19.8%，连续三季度提升；蔚来Q3毛利率12.9%，环比提升4.5个pct。\n\n除了收入和盈利两个指标外，三家造车新势力的经营性现金流均大幅改善。\n\n 蔚来20H1 经营性现金流净流出收窄至5.2亿元；\n\n\n 小鹏20H1经营性现金流净流出为12.1亿元；\n\n\n 理想经营性现金流于20Q2转正，Q3持续扩大。\n\n从产品上来看，三家造车新势力侧重不同的细分市场，但是不约而同的都在由代工厂向自建工厂转型，提升产品质量的管控能力。\n\n 蔚来：走高端路线，产品为纯电动，SUV类型车，百公里加速时间最短；蔚来由江淮工厂合作建厂生产，目前在规划上海第二工厂，预计2022年产能达25万辆。\n\n\n 理想：价格次之，为增程式驱动，SUV类型车，百公里加速排在第二；理想自建常州工厂预计 2022年扩产至20万辆。\n\n\n 小鹏：价格最亲民，产品为纯电动，有一款三厢轿车，百公里加速排第三；小鹏自建肇庆工厂年产能达10万辆，代工厂郑州海马年产能达15万辆，自建广州工厂已经开工预计2022年建成，建成后完全由自建厂房生产。\n\n从智能驾驶技术上看，三家都在从依赖供应商转向自主研发。方正预计，未来三年新势力将会逐步加大自主研发的力度，建立全栈软件开发能力。\n以下是方正证券对三家造车新势力的具体分析：\n\n蔚来：指引营收超150亿，第四款车型发布在即收入提升较快，成本控制效果显著。20Q3 蔚来营业收入45.3亿元，同比增加146.4%，环比增长21.7%，汽车交付量提升较快，Q3交付量达1.2万辆，同比增长154.3%，环比增加18.2%；Q3毛利润显著增加，亏损较Q2收窄44.4％，主要由于公司Q3运营优化和费用控制及疫情期间加强成本控制措施效果显著。\n \n交付量增长迅速，再创历史新高。蔚来10月交付量达 5,055 辆，同比增长100.12%。蔚来 Q3 共交付12,206 辆，同比增长154.34%，Q3交付量创历史新高。江淮工厂月产量约5000 辆，蔚来品牌的第4款车型也将于江淮工厂投产，预计Q4交付量有望达10,000 辆。\n \n定位高端市场，差异化确立竞争优势。蔚来车型走高端路线，以马力足、续航持久、空间充足为特点。各车型百公里加速均在5秒以内，最大功率达400kW，售价在40万元及以上。\n \n智能软件支持多功能，自动驾驶居行业领先水平。蔚来汽车智软件NIO OS具有自动辅助驾驶系统NIO Pilo，智能助手NOMI，音频版的蔚来社区-NIO Radio等功能；NIO Pilot达到了L2 自动驾驶级别，与特斯科拉的Autopilot自动驾驶系统类似。NIO Pilot由12个超声波传感器、5个毫米波雷达、1个前向三目摄像头、4个环视摄像头、以及一个驾驶状态监测摄像头组成；NOMI的语音技术得到了科大讯飞的支持；NIO Radio为蔚来和用户沟通的重要平辆；同时还接入了QQ音乐、喜马拉雅FM、百度地图等常用的应用，并进行专门的应用级优化。\n\n\n毛利率改善，费用率下行，净利率稳步上升。公司毛利率有较大提升， 20Q2毛利率首次转正，20Q3毛利率达12.9%，环比增长4.5pct，主要由于交付量稳步提升和成本控制能力增强； Q3 费用率控制好，研发费率及销售费率分别降至13.1%和 20.8%，环比分别下降1.6pct和 4.4pct，总体呈下降态势；Q3净利率为-23.13%，环比增长8.5pct，未来仍有继续向上空间。\n \n研发投入持续增加，设计开发费用占比高。公司研发投入逐年增加，19年总投入达44.3亿元，同比增长10.8%，其中设计开发费和员工薪酬占比较高，19年分别为46.1%和45.3%；设计开发费用维持高增速，19年同比增速达11.7%； 公司维持高研发投入，注重技术创新。\n \n资产结构大幅改善，资产流动性增强。20Q3流动性资产达263.3亿元，同比增长275.5%，环比增长74.5%，流动性资产总量大幅提升；Q3货币资金占比、短期投资占比分别为73.4%、10.3%。\n \n负债稳定，长期借款为主。20Q3总负债为202.2亿元，环比减少10.6%，债务主要来源于长期借款；长期借贷、应付账款及票据占比分别为33.5%、24.4%。\n \n产能持续扩张，自建工厂已开始规划。公司由合作工厂向自建工厂转型，公司目前主要依托江淮工厂生产，年产能为15万辆；目前蔚来正在规划上海第二工厂，预计2022年满产年产能达25万辆。\n \n小鹏：毛利首次转正，加大投入自建工厂营收创历史新高，公司首次扭亏为盈。公司Q3营业收入19.9亿元，同比增长342.5%，环比增长236.9%，20 Q1-Q3营业收入约29.9亿元，同比增长78.0%，主要由于汽车交付量持续增长；Q3交付量达8578辆，同比增长71.6%；毛利润达0.9亿元，公司首次扭亏为盈；广州制造基地开始动工，预计2022年建成，年产能10万辆。\n \n交付量小幅减少，预计Q4恢复增长。10月交付量达3040 辆，较上月小幅下降，环比减少 12.6%，20M1-M10总销量达17117辆，预计未来交付量将维持高位。\n 小鹏汽车型号分为P7和G3，标准版（P7 智行版、G3智享46i）售价分别为16.98、25.49万元，G3较P7性能更为优越，续航 706km、百公里加速6.7秒、最大功率196kW。\n \n智能系统支持多场景应用，手机APP实现智能化联动。小鹏汽车智能软件系统Xmart OS具有语音助手“小P”、OTA平辆、APP远程操控、智能导航功能。语音助手“小P”使用触控+语音的方式对用户使用习惯进行引导过度，致力于用自然的语音交互完全替代传统的车机操作；整车OTA通过“全语音车载系统”以及整个软硬件和底层架构打通，将这种“开放可能性”延伸到了未来更多元、更个性的用车场景中。手机下载小鹏汽车APP连接，即可实现远程操控车辆，可使用手机控制空调、车窗的开闭、寻车和查找充电桩，遥控摄像头查看车周边环境等。智能导航配备的是高德定制地图，数据储备丰富定位精准，并且能显示小鹏汽车超级充电桩的位置，此外，这块中控屏幕还能与液晶仪表实现智能化联动，同步显示行车、导航即娱乐等方面的信息。\n\n\n毛利率首次转正，费用率管控良好，净利率亏损收窄。Q3毛利率为4.6%，环比增长7.4pct，首次由负转正；研发费用率和销售、行政及一般费率分别为13.3%、13.6%，环比分别减少 50.0pct，66.0pct，费用率自20年来维持下降趋势；净利率为-57.5%，相比H1亏损大幅收窄。\n \n流动性资产显著增加，流动资金近80%。Q3 流动资金大幅增加，主要由于交付量增加迅速而获得流动性资金；货币资金、短期投资占比分别为52%、25%。\n \n负债稳定，应付账款占比较高。Q3负债总额达80.7亿元，公司订单量增加导致负债同比大幅增长；公司应付账款及长期借款占比较大，分别为43.3%、20.7%。公司20H1资本支出为5.2亿元，较去年同期明显减少，近期公司与广州政府签署合作协议，年产10万辆汽车的广州智造基地已经开工，预计未来公司资本性支出将回归高位。\n \n产能加速扩张，广州基地已开始建设。公司现有两处生产基地，分别为海马汽车代工厂和自建肇庆工厂； 2017年与海马代工厂签署合作协议，主要代工生产小鹏G3；肇庆工厂一期项目产能规划为10万辆/年，并在2020年3月底进入批量生产；广州制造基地已经破土动工，预计2022年建成，年产能达10万辆。\n\n\n市场高度景气，渗透率有望加速提升。10月小鹏汽车渗透率达2.3%，市场需求持续扩大，随着公司未来产能进一步扩张，未来仍有较大向上渗透空间。\n \n理想：短期仍坚持增程式，召回未影响新订单收入提升较快，交付量新高。20Q3理想营业收入25.11亿元，环比增长28.94%，汽车交付量提升较快，Q3理想ONE 交付量达8660辆，环比增长31.13%；理想汽车20Q1产生收入，目前仍处于亏损阶段，其中20Q3营业利润-1.8亿元，主要由于公司仍处于产能建设周期和线下渠道扩张期。\n \n理想ONE定位中高端SUV，标准版（增程6座）售价为32.8万元，续航180km、百公里加速6.5秒、最大功率240kW。\n\n\n智能系统持续升级，软件功能齐全。理想汽车智能操作系统Li OS具有包括整车控制、自动驾驶等功能，目前正在研发推进中。研发系统的思路也参照了特斯拉：第一代产品完成了终端，第二代产品实现了自己的硬件集成和实时操作系统，第三代产品做到了自己的芯片。理想汽车计划在研发第二代产品的路线上，自主掌握实时操作系统。目前理想ONE软件系统配备了大量的智能应用，具备在线听歌、追剧及导航一应俱全，目前已经上线了爱奇艺视频、喜马拉雅有声读物、理想音乐、FM (电辆)、高德地图、腾讯地图、声控游戏等功能。\n\n\n毛利率改善，费用率稳定。公司毛利率有较好提升，20Q3环比增加6.4%，主要由于上游材料降价和规模化效应带来成本下降，未来仍有继续向上空间；费用率20Q1以来控制较好，三季度略有提升，主要由于公司对员工股权激励和授予股票期权，导致20Q3净利率小幅下降。\n \n研发投入中设计开发费超50%，公司19年研发费用达 6.0亿元，同比增长42.4%，其中设计开发费用和员工薪酬占研发费用比重最高，分别达51.6%和39.5%。\n \n公司资产流动性大幅改善。相比2019下半年及2020上半年，2020年Q3流动性资产总量增幅明显，为205.77亿元，同比增幅292.70%，主要由于公司IPO的完成和定向增发的进行。在20Q3 财报中显示，定期存款及其他短期投资、货币资金、存货、受限制现金占比分别为 58.83%、31.45%、4.20%、1.65%。\n \n负债稳定，主要为应付账款。2020 年Q3 负债总量为50.52亿元，环比下降2.6亿元，2020 年以来订单量增加，公司加进投入和生产，负债较2019年有所增加，其中应付账款及票据是主要债务来源，应付账款及票据、长期借贷占比分别为41.0%、10.0%。\n \n投资力度大幅提升。20Q3公司投资活动现金流支出大增98.8亿元，未公布具体项目额度，相比前面多个报告期增长较大，业务扩张将加速。\n 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