本期获奖幸运观众的个人主页 - 老虎社区

本期获奖幸运观众

本期获奖幸运观众

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IP属地：广东

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本期获奖幸运观众

2020-02-14

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 余总，我X你X……是不是你做空了！哈哈哈

本期获奖幸运观众

2020-02-14

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 大队长在吗？带我走一波

本期获奖幸运观众

2020-02-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 请问做空是需要t2吗？

本期获奖幸运观众

2020-02-19

$卓越教育集团(03978)$ 总裁自愿降薪50%，总监30%，削减各样经费，卓越正积极应对疫情对企业的影响。[强]

本期获奖幸运观众

2020-02-05

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 给个机会平仓就行了

本期获奖幸运观众

2020-03-30

$波音(BA)$马尼拉机场的什么型号?

本期获奖幸运观众

2020-03-09

$三倍做多标普500ETF(UPRO)$为什么挂单卖不出

本期获奖幸运观众

2020-02-20

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 空了两天，肾都掏空了

本期获奖幸运观众

2020-02-14

$小米集团-W(01810)$ are you OK？

本期获奖幸运观众

2020-03-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$信仰起飞🛫起飞🛫

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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大队长在吗？带我走一波","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917867945","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"138550929904126","authorId":"138550929904126","name":"Yalda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f1703592180d0cc11f713e222d88ac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"138550929904126","idStr":"138550929904126"},"content":"队长只能送你，不能带你。队长的车，连队长都不带。","text":"队长只能送你，不能带你。队长的车，连队长都不带。","html":"队长只能送你，不能带你。队长的车，连队长都不带。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":917165753,"gmtCreate":1581648515972,"gmtModify":1704344882254,"author":{"id":"3542677164433879","authorId":"3542677164433879","name":"本期获奖幸运观众","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d66a4d398c4132484f1d27af810cf0a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3542677164433879","idStr":"3542677164433879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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余总，我X你X……是不是你做空了！哈哈哈","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738c7d9c03817f437a6471627b5cf9e2","width":"615","height":"506"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917165753","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494281781797251","authorId":"3494281781797251","name":"Clumsypig","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b15f83d2e489f283f51b78126066b4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3494281781797251","idStr":"3494281781797251"},"content":"这应该是俩人心里话[捂嘴]","text":"这应该是俩人心里话[捂嘴]","html":"这应该是俩人心里话[捂嘴]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":917163565,"gmtCreate":1581646600157,"gmtModify":1704344875007,"author":{"id":"3542677164433879","authorId":"3542677164433879","name":"本期获奖幸运观众","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d66a4d398c4132484f1d27af810cf0a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3542677164433879","idStr":"3542677164433879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;are you OK？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;are you OK？","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ are you OK？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917163565","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3492768730540148","authorId":"3492768730540148","name":"爱飞飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/750ad6e9ab4fc084d60dde9a22fb40b8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3492768730540148","idStr":"3492768730540148"},"content":"hello。thank you ！thank you very much！","text":"hello。thank you ！thank you very much！","html":"hello。thank you ！thank you very much！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":914578322,"gmtCreate":1581426553266,"gmtModify":1704344118098,"author":{"id":"3542677164433879","authorId":"3542677164433879","name":"本期获奖幸运观众","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d66a4d398c4132484f1d27af810cf0a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3542677164433879","idStr":"3542677164433879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/914578322","repostId":"1178014820","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178014820","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1581342679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178014820?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-10 21:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"疫情对经济影响概述：迎接不平静但充满希望的新时代","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178014820","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"提前看清疫情对经济的影响，把握即将到来的“报复性”反弹，是目前的重要工作。","content":"<p><span>2020年伊始，一场突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情又把我们拉回到曾经的“非典”时期，但今天，中国经济与资本市场的发展阶段、体量、结构已完全不同，市场的参与者也已经是全新的一代人。所以，纵然故事情节似曾相识，结局与影响，却注定不同。</span></p><p><span>回顾2003，“非典”疫情对市场形成短期冲击，二季度社会消费品零售增速呈“V型”走势，股市中商业贸易板块跌幅居前。但疫情平息后消费迅速反弹并在 2004 年创下了新高。今天，新冠肺炎疫情对经济的负面影响肯定要大于非典，一季度经济增速可能因此下降2个点以上。</span> 用<span>任泽平团队的研究数据来看：仅春节七天，电影票房损失70亿，餐饮零售损失5000亿，旅游市场损失5000亿，这三个行业的直接经济损失就超过一万亿，占到了2019年第一季度GDP的4.6%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b9575db1d21983f329066b354e6dd2d\" /></p><p><span>有人说，“非典”疫情催生了后来的互联网电商巨头淘宝和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>；还有人说，“非典”疫情吹响了互联网社会化大普及的总攻集结号……危机危机，危与机永远是相伴而生的。灾难不必歌颂，恐慌与痛苦也无需掩饰，但我们相信，春天绝对不会缺席。因此，提前看清疫情对经济的影响，把握即将到来的“报复性”反弹，就是投资者目前最需要做的工作。</span></p><p>一，<b>股市方面</b></p><p><span>春节前后，新冠肺炎疫情的爆发打断了A股持续上攻的趋势，疫情后的股市将会如何发展？我们认为，因为疫情本身注定是阶段性的，因此它带来的冲击，无论大小，都应该是阶段性的、一次性的，不会改变中国经济长期向好的基本面，其负面影响会随着病毒的消退而很快逆转。从历史经验来看，非典时期股票市场的调整仅持续了八个交易日，这个从二月初市场的表现已经得到验证。</span></p><p><b>底部已现，重点配置复苏主线</b></p><p><span>预计本轮疫情拐点后，前期涨幅较高的行业中，纯事件驱动或避险类板块迎来补跌，但蕴含中期商业逻辑的板块即使阶段性回吐部分涨幅，在产业逻辑支撑下仍具备重新向上动力。此外，疫情前表现较为强势，受疫情影响较小、产业逻辑依然稳固的板块也将逐步回归。</span></p><p><span>A股在经历大跌之后的赔率已较为吸引，冲击底部已现。若复工后疫情拐点改善进一步清晰，A股行业轮动将沿受疫情影响由小到大的顺序向中期主线回归。当前涨幅较高的受益板块中，纯事件驱动类强势股补跌，具有中期产业逻辑的板块即便面临一定调整也仍具备重新上行动力，而事件影响有限、中期产业逻辑稳固的板块亦将逐步回归。配置把握两条主线：</span></p><p><span>（1）短期事件受益、中期逻辑支撑；</span></p><p><span>（2）事件影响有限，中期向上逻辑稳固。</span> <b><span>建议配置：互联网医疗、游戏、新能源车、消费电子。</span></b></p><p>【详细了解】</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010229771\" target=\"_blank\">面对疫情冲击，市场受到的影响会有多大？</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1181487505\" target=\"_blank\">2020年2月策略月报：疫情过后的几大投资方向</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1166471274\" target=\"_blank\">若疫情迎来拐点，配置什么？</a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/097c9eb39c9e382c813f1c868a260204\" /></p><p>二，<b>行业经济方面</b></p><p>1 楼市能抄底吗？</p><p>十七年前的“非典”<span>，让2003年北京4月和5月的商品房预售平均减少了3296套，降幅高达36%。同样也让全国楼市的开发速度和销售量都出现了大幅度的降低。但疫情结束后的8月31日，《国务院关于促进房地产市场持续健康发展的通知》出台，让非典的影响彻底消失，也让中国楼市驶入了一个新的快车道，开启了十几年的长期上涨。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cc5d886444e0b88638e370928f7b069\" /></p><p>但是今天的情况显然不同，<span>高层大概率不会采取突然大幅放水的措施，而是会多频次、小步快跑地进行降息降准，输血经济，维稳楼市。不要以为开发商会断臂求生，更大的可能是短暂优惠力度火力全开之后，开发商就会顺着刺激政策的利好，再现价涨行情。二手房也会随之夯实底部，价量齐起。想薅羊毛，一定要抓住极短的窗口期，该买大胆买。一旦他们活过来，价格上调，就啥也没有了。疫情过后1-2个月是最好的买入时机。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010770229\" target=\"_blank\">疫情之下，对于2020年楼市的5个关键判断</a></p><p>2 生鲜电商的大机会来了？</p><p><span>“你抢着菜了吗？”已经成为新冠肺炎疫情下，除“你抢着口罩了吗？”外另一句流行的打招呼方式。而居家隔离、不敢出门的人们纷纷涌向了买菜App，生鲜电商“压力山大”，货物短缺、人员匮乏、运力不足、系统崩溃等等问题随之而来。这种火热的状况，对于在2019年“九死一生”的生鲜电商来说，是一次机会吗？</span></p><p>本次<span>肺炎疫情对生鲜电商来说确实是机遇：一方面是培养用户的消费习惯；另一方面，在过去，供应链是制约生鲜电商最大因素，这次疫情是考验和做强供应链的机会，有利于吸引资本进入。但同时，如果能力不足，则有可能在此期间被逐渐淘汰。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010243226\" target=\"_blank\">三问疫情下的&quot;抢菜大战&quot;：要持续多久？是多大机会？</a></p><p>3 互联网行业迎来又一春？《王者荣耀》的爆发未必是好事</p><p>前面提到，有观点认为当年的“非典”疫情成就了淘宝、京东等互联网电商，但在今天，<span>互联网与传统经济的结合已经非常非常深了，所以在传统经济受到打击以后，互联网受到的传导性是非常明显的，再也无法像17年前一样，坐收增长的红利。例如中小企业死掉没有人去百度做广告，小微企业餐馆死掉，没有去美团做推广，一些供应链电商背后的厂商破产，就没有人去提供<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、聚划算的货源。</span></p><p><span>有人说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>王者荣耀一天20亿的收入，对腾讯来讲赚得很开心。但事实上这反映了危机：大家都闲下来，闲到一个游戏可以一天赚20亿。中国这样一个已经增速放缓的经济体，出现大家都闲下来的情况，并不是什么好事。</span></p><p>从机会角度看，<span>谁能从本次疫情中找到最大的新需求增量，谁的未来就最光明。现在，我们对疫情的了解、围堵、跟踪、分析，基本上都有ai+big data+cloud的影子，这是对产业互联网能够提升政府治理能力、企业竞争能力最好的宣传，如果产业互联网可以持续发挥比较重要的作用的话，可能给中国整个toB/G端的互联网发展，带来真正的起飞的机会。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1164564036\" target=\"_blank\">疫情下的互联网行业投资指南</a></p><p>4 各行各业</p><p><span>正常情况下，经济遭遇疫情、股灾等冲击，市场的自愈能力会促进经济复苏。如非典过后，经济强劲复苏，很快烫平了波动。又比如，春节七天，旅游市场损失5000亿，主要是需求被强行抑制。疫情之后，旅游需求增加，市场逐渐复苏，财富损失会得到弥补。</span></p><p><span>但是，有些损失是难以弥补、无法挽回的，比如因为疫情，冬季和春节的服装存货积压，田地里的蔬果腐烂。又比如，生命的消失，企业的消失，工人下岗，经济循环断裂。</span></p><p><span>每个行业的抗风险能力不同，每个行业、每个企业的负债率、现金流状况不同，每个企业所处的产业位置，所遭遇疫情的打击程度也不同，因而有必要区分对待。这次疫情跟非典类似，对产业的影响，存在一个规律路径：</span><span><b>冲击波从下游逐渐向中上游传递。</b></span><span>首当其冲的是第三产业，尤其是零售及服务业。电影、餐饮、旅游文娱、服装零售、交通运输、教育培训、金融服务、制造业，它们的命运会各有不同。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516bdf731ae0a8b5239ee2a9741b49\" /></p><p><b>电影业：</b><span>正常情况下，影视公司、经纪人公司以及电影工作者能够承担几个月甚至半年的空档，但是问题在于，中国电影本在寒冬期。去年下半年，电影拍摄、投资、产能都拦腰斩半，资本纷纷逃离，部分电影工作者失业、转业。如今疫情来袭，可谓雪上加霜。疫情过后影视会复苏，但我认为电影产业依然萧条。</span></p><p><b>餐饮业：</b><span>疫情过后，餐饮业会有什么改变？首先，不会有大改变，餐饮是刚需，需求稳定，而且饮食习惯很难改变。其次，酒店类餐厅恢复速度更慢，快餐类更快。这次疫情，多数传染案例来自聚集、聚餐。这给中国人喜欢的聚餐共食习惯以警醒，段时间内聚餐会减少。最后，人们会更注重餐饮卫生，培养分餐习惯，网上订餐、生鲜外卖有机会。</span></p><p><b>旅游业：</b><span>疫情后，景区尤其是大型观光景区的经济恢复会比较慢。大型景区，人流密集，短期内游客会选择回避，同时大型景区依赖黄金周。相反，短程自驾游、家庭游以及体验性旅游会成为趋势。</span></p><p><b>交通运输业：</b><span>最需要关注的群体是大规模的运输个体户，如出租车司机、网约车司机、大货车司机。他们中，不少有贷款买车的情况，大规模停运、长时间歇业，会降低他们的收入，增加负债率和贷款违约率。</span></p><p><b>在线教育业：</b><span>少儿的在线教育规模会持续扩大，如学而思的教学课程培训、VIPKID的外教培训、恺叔讲故事以及众多兴趣培训。但是，从长期来看，少儿的培训，尤其是辅导培训、兴趣培训，也不会因线上教育受到冲击。更可能是，线上和线下会有更好的结合。成人在线培训这块，主要指知识付费，会有一些专业人士，如大学教授加入。注意知识付费不等于信息付费，信息在网络时代是免费的，采用广告模式。人们只会给专业的、系统的知识付费。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010409229\" target=\"_blank\">疫情后的各行各业，都会变成什么样？</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1181745557\" target=\"_blank\">疫情之后，好公司的新时代</a></p><p>三，<b>总结</b></p><p><span>相信经过这次疫情，每个人都会更重视健康，更敬畏生命；更珍视家庭的温暖，更珍惜自己的工作；也更理解困难以及正在经历困难的其他人。</span></p><p><span>也相信经过这次疫情，会有越来越多的产业与企业会加速并深化数字化进程，这将带来极大的效率提升，也将在疫情复苏后给各行业在全世界范围内带来更多的竞争机会。</span></p><p><span>此刻，拐点仍未到来，全国上下仍在全力以赴，让我们一起，勇敢面对！</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>疫情对经济影响概述：迎接不平静但充满希望的新时代</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n疫情对经济影响概述：迎接不平静但充满希望的新时代\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-02-10 21:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>2020年伊始，一场突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情又把我们拉回到曾经的“非典”时期，但今天，中国经济与资本市场的发展阶段、体量、结构已完全不同，市场的参与者也已经是全新的一代人。所以，纵然故事情节似曾相识，结局与影响，却注定不同。</span></p><p><span>回顾2003，“非典”疫情对市场形成短期冲击，二季度社会消费品零售增速呈“V型”走势，股市中商业贸易板块跌幅居前。但疫情平息后消费迅速反弹并在 2004 年创下了新高。今天，新冠肺炎疫情对经济的负面影响肯定要大于非典，一季度经济增速可能因此下降2个点以上。</span> 用<span>任泽平团队的研究数据来看：仅春节七天，电影票房损失70亿，餐饮零售损失5000亿，旅游市场损失5000亿，这三个行业的直接经济损失就超过一万亿，占到了2019年第一季度GDP的4.6%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b9575db1d21983f329066b354e6dd2d\" /></p><p><span>有人说，“非典”疫情催生了后来的互联网电商巨头淘宝和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>；还有人说，“非典”疫情吹响了互联网社会化大普及的总攻集结号……危机危机，危与机永远是相伴而生的。灾难不必歌颂，恐慌与痛苦也无需掩饰，但我们相信，春天绝对不会缺席。因此，提前看清疫情对经济的影响，把握即将到来的“报复性”反弹，就是投资者目前最需要做的工作。</span></p><p>一，<b>股市方面</b></p><p><span>春节前后，新冠肺炎疫情的爆发打断了A股持续上攻的趋势，疫情后的股市将会如何发展？我们认为，因为疫情本身注定是阶段性的，因此它带来的冲击，无论大小，都应该是阶段性的、一次性的，不会改变中国经济长期向好的基本面，其负面影响会随着病毒的消退而很快逆转。从历史经验来看，非典时期股票市场的调整仅持续了八个交易日，这个从二月初市场的表现已经得到验证。</span></p><p><b>底部已现，重点配置复苏主线</b></p><p><span>预计本轮疫情拐点后，前期涨幅较高的行业中，纯事件驱动或避险类板块迎来补跌，但蕴含中期商业逻辑的板块即使阶段性回吐部分涨幅，在产业逻辑支撑下仍具备重新向上动力。此外，疫情前表现较为强势，受疫情影响较小、产业逻辑依然稳固的板块也将逐步回归。</span></p><p><span>A股在经历大跌之后的赔率已较为吸引，冲击底部已现。若复工后疫情拐点改善进一步清晰，A股行业轮动将沿受疫情影响由小到大的顺序向中期主线回归。当前涨幅较高的受益板块中，纯事件驱动类强势股补跌，具有中期产业逻辑的板块即便面临一定调整也仍具备重新上行动力，而事件影响有限、中期产业逻辑稳固的板块亦将逐步回归。配置把握两条主线：</span></p><p><span>（1）短期事件受益、中期逻辑支撑；</span></p><p><span>（2）事件影响有限，中期向上逻辑稳固。</span> <b><span>建议配置：互联网医疗、游戏、新能源车、消费电子。</span></b></p><p>【详细了解】</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010229771\" target=\"_blank\">面对疫情冲击，市场受到的影响会有多大？</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1181487505\" target=\"_blank\">2020年2月策略月报：疫情过后的几大投资方向</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1166471274\" target=\"_blank\">若疫情迎来拐点，配置什么？</a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/097c9eb39c9e382c813f1c868a260204\" /></p><p>二，<b>行业经济方面</b></p><p>1 楼市能抄底吗？</p><p>十七年前的“非典”<span>，让2003年北京4月和5月的商品房预售平均减少了3296套，降幅高达36%。同样也让全国楼市的开发速度和销售量都出现了大幅度的降低。但疫情结束后的8月31日，《国务院关于促进房地产市场持续健康发展的通知》出台，让非典的影响彻底消失，也让中国楼市驶入了一个新的快车道，开启了十几年的长期上涨。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cc5d886444e0b88638e370928f7b069\" /></p><p>但是今天的情况显然不同，<span>高层大概率不会采取突然大幅放水的措施，而是会多频次、小步快跑地进行降息降准，输血经济，维稳楼市。不要以为开发商会断臂求生，更大的可能是短暂优惠力度火力全开之后，开发商就会顺着刺激政策的利好，再现价涨行情。二手房也会随之夯实底部，价量齐起。想薅羊毛，一定要抓住极短的窗口期，该买大胆买。一旦他们活过来，价格上调，就啥也没有了。疫情过后1-2个月是最好的买入时机。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010770229\" target=\"_blank\">疫情之下，对于2020年楼市的5个关键判断</a></p><p>2 生鲜电商的大机会来了？</p><p><span>“你抢着菜了吗？”已经成为新冠肺炎疫情下，除“你抢着口罩了吗？”外另一句流行的打招呼方式。而居家隔离、不敢出门的人们纷纷涌向了买菜App，生鲜电商“压力山大”，货物短缺、人员匮乏、运力不足、系统崩溃等等问题随之而来。这种火热的状况，对于在2019年“九死一生”的生鲜电商来说，是一次机会吗？</span></p><p>本次<span>肺炎疫情对生鲜电商来说确实是机遇：一方面是培养用户的消费习惯；另一方面，在过去，供应链是制约生鲜电商最大因素，这次疫情是考验和做强供应链的机会，有利于吸引资本进入。但同时，如果能力不足，则有可能在此期间被逐渐淘汰。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010243226\" target=\"_blank\">三问疫情下的&quot;抢菜大战&quot;：要持续多久？是多大机会？</a></p><p>3 互联网行业迎来又一春？《王者荣耀》的爆发未必是好事</p><p>前面提到，有观点认为当年的“非典”疫情成就了淘宝、京东等互联网电商，但在今天，<span>互联网与传统经济的结合已经非常非常深了，所以在传统经济受到打击以后，互联网受到的传导性是非常明显的，再也无法像17年前一样，坐收增长的红利。例如中小企业死掉没有人去百度做广告，小微企业餐馆死掉，没有去美团做推广，一些供应链电商背后的厂商破产，就没有人去提供<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、聚划算的货源。</span></p><p><span>有人说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>王者荣耀一天20亿的收入，对腾讯来讲赚得很开心。但事实上这反映了危机：大家都闲下来，闲到一个游戏可以一天赚20亿。中国这样一个已经增速放缓的经济体，出现大家都闲下来的情况，并不是什么好事。</span></p><p>从机会角度看，<span>谁能从本次疫情中找到最大的新需求增量，谁的未来就最光明。现在，我们对疫情的了解、围堵、跟踪、分析，基本上都有ai+big data+cloud的影子，这是对产业互联网能够提升政府治理能力、企业竞争能力最好的宣传，如果产业互联网可以持续发挥比较重要的作用的话，可能给中国整个toB/G端的互联网发展，带来真正的起飞的机会。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1164564036\" target=\"_blank\">疫情下的互联网行业投资指南</a></p><p>4 各行各业</p><p><span>正常情况下，经济遭遇疫情、股灾等冲击，市场的自愈能力会促进经济复苏。如非典过后，经济强劲复苏，很快烫平了波动。又比如，春节七天，旅游市场损失5000亿，主要是需求被强行抑制。疫情之后，旅游需求增加，市场逐渐复苏，财富损失会得到弥补。</span></p><p><span>但是，有些损失是难以弥补、无法挽回的，比如因为疫情，冬季和春节的服装存货积压，田地里的蔬果腐烂。又比如，生命的消失，企业的消失，工人下岗，经济循环断裂。</span></p><p><span>每个行业的抗风险能力不同，每个行业、每个企业的负债率、现金流状况不同，每个企业所处的产业位置，所遭遇疫情的打击程度也不同，因而有必要区分对待。这次疫情跟非典类似，对产业的影响，存在一个规律路径：</span><span><b>冲击波从下游逐渐向中上游传递。</b></span><span>首当其冲的是第三产业，尤其是零售及服务业。电影、餐饮、旅游文娱、服装零售、交通运输、教育培训、金融服务、制造业，它们的命运会各有不同。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516bdf731ae0a8b5239ee2a9741b49\" /></p><p><b>电影业：</b><span>正常情况下，影视公司、经纪人公司以及电影工作者能够承担几个月甚至半年的空档，但是问题在于，中国电影本在寒冬期。去年下半年，电影拍摄、投资、产能都拦腰斩半，资本纷纷逃离，部分电影工作者失业、转业。如今疫情来袭，可谓雪上加霜。疫情过后影视会复苏，但我认为电影产业依然萧条。</span></p><p><b>餐饮业：</b><span>疫情过后，餐饮业会有什么改变？首先，不会有大改变，餐饮是刚需，需求稳定，而且饮食习惯很难改变。其次，酒店类餐厅恢复速度更慢，快餐类更快。这次疫情，多数传染案例来自聚集、聚餐。这给中国人喜欢的聚餐共食习惯以警醒，段时间内聚餐会减少。最后，人们会更注重餐饮卫生，培养分餐习惯，网上订餐、生鲜外卖有机会。</span></p><p><b>旅游业：</b><span>疫情后，景区尤其是大型观光景区的经济恢复会比较慢。大型景区，人流密集，短期内游客会选择回避，同时大型景区依赖黄金周。相反，短程自驾游、家庭游以及体验性旅游会成为趋势。</span></p><p><b>交通运输业：</b><span>最需要关注的群体是大规模的运输个体户，如出租车司机、网约车司机、大货车司机。他们中，不少有贷款买车的情况，大规模停运、长时间歇业，会降低他们的收入，增加负债率和贷款违约率。</span></p><p><b>在线教育业：</b><span>少儿的在线教育规模会持续扩大，如学而思的教学课程培训、VIPKID的外教培训、恺叔讲故事以及众多兴趣培训。但是，从长期来看，少儿的培训，尤其是辅导培训、兴趣培训，也不会因线上教育受到冲击。更可能是，线上和线下会有更好的结合。成人在线培训这块，主要指知识付费，会有一些专业人士，如大学教授加入。注意知识付费不等于信息付费，信息在网络时代是免费的，采用广告模式。人们只会给专业的、系统的知识付费。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010409229\" target=\"_blank\">疫情后的各行各业，都会变成什么样？</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1181745557\" target=\"_blank\">疫情之后，好公司的新时代</a></p><p>三，<b>总结</b></p><p><span>相信经过这次疫情，每个人都会更重视健康，更敬畏生命；更珍视家庭的温暖，更珍惜自己的工作；也更理解困难以及正在经历困难的其他人。</span></p><p><span>也相信经过这次疫情，会有越来越多的产业与企业会加速并深化数字化进程，这将带来极大的效率提升，也将在疫情复苏后给各行业在全世界范围内带来更多的竞争机会。</span></p><p><span>此刻，拐点仍未到来，全国上下仍在全力以赴，让我们一起，勇敢面对！</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06cad28c21b49733c43eb45ed4e28c0","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178014820","content_text":"2020年伊始，一场突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情又把我们拉回到曾经的“非典”时期，但今天，中国经济与资本市场的发展阶段、体量、结构已完全不同，市场的参与者也已经是全新的一代人。所以，纵然故事情节似曾相识，结局与影响，却注定不同。回顾2003，“非典”疫情对市场形成短期冲击，二季度社会消费品零售增速呈“V型”走势，股市中商业贸易板块跌幅居前。但疫情平息后消费迅速反弹并在 2004 年创下了新高。今天，新冠肺炎疫情对经济的负面影响肯定要大于非典，一季度经济增速可能因此下降2个点以上。 用任泽平团队的研究数据来看：仅春节七天，电影票房损失70亿，餐饮零售损失5000亿，旅游市场损失5000亿，这三个行业的直接经济损失就超过一万亿，占到了2019年第一季度GDP的4.6%。有人说，“非典”疫情催生了后来的互联网电商巨头淘宝和京东；还有人说，“非典”疫情吹响了互联网社会化大普及的总攻集结号……危机危机，危与机永远是相伴而生的。灾难不必歌颂，恐慌与痛苦也无需掩饰，但我们相信，春天绝对不会缺席。因此，提前看清疫情对经济的影响，把握即将到来的“报复性”反弹，就是投资者目前最需要做的工作。一，股市方面春节前后，新冠肺炎疫情的爆发打断了A股持续上攻的趋势，疫情后的股市将会如何发展？我们认为，因为疫情本身注定是阶段性的，因此它带来的冲击，无论大小，都应该是阶段性的、一次性的，不会改变中国经济长期向好的基本面，其负面影响会随着病毒的消退而很快逆转。从历史经验来看，非典时期股票市场的调整仅持续了八个交易日，这个从二月初市场的表现已经得到验证。底部已现，重点配置复苏主线预计本轮疫情拐点后，前期涨幅较高的行业中，纯事件驱动或避险类板块迎来补跌，但蕴含中期商业逻辑的板块即使阶段性回吐部分涨幅，在产业逻辑支撑下仍具备重新向上动力。此外，疫情前表现较为强势，受疫情影响较小、产业逻辑依然稳固的板块也将逐步回归。A股在经历大跌之后的赔率已较为吸引，冲击底部已现。若复工后疫情拐点改善进一步清晰，A股行业轮动将沿受疫情影响由小到大的顺序向中期主线回归。当前涨幅较高的受益板块中，纯事件驱动类强势股补跌，具有中期产业逻辑的板块即便面临一定调整也仍具备重新上行动力，而事件影响有限、中期产业逻辑稳固的板块亦将逐步回归。配置把握两条主线：（1）短期事件受益、中期逻辑支撑；（2）事件影响有限，中期向上逻辑稳固。 建议配置：互联网医疗、游戏、新能源车、消费电子。【详细了解】面对疫情冲击，市场受到的影响会有多大？2020年2月策略月报：疫情过后的几大投资方向若疫情迎来拐点，配置什么？二，行业经济方面1 楼市能抄底吗？十七年前的“非典”，让2003年北京4月和5月的商品房预售平均减少了3296套，降幅高达36%。同样也让全国楼市的开发速度和销售量都出现了大幅度的降低。但疫情结束后的8月31日，《国务院关于促进房地产市场持续健康发展的通知》出台，让非典的影响彻底消失，也让中国楼市驶入了一个新的快车道，开启了十几年的长期上涨。但是今天的情况显然不同，高层大概率不会采取突然大幅放水的措施，而是会多频次、小步快跑地进行降息降准，输血经济，维稳楼市。不要以为开发商会断臂求生，更大的可能是短暂优惠力度火力全开之后，开发商就会顺着刺激政策的利好，再现价涨行情。二手房也会随之夯实底部，价量齐起。想薅羊毛，一定要抓住极短的窗口期，该买大胆买。一旦他们活过来，价格上调，就啥也没有了。疫情过后1-2个月是最好的买入时机。【详细了解】疫情之下，对于2020年楼市的5个关键判断2 生鲜电商的大机会来了？“你抢着菜了吗？”已经成为新冠肺炎疫情下，除“你抢着口罩了吗？”外另一句流行的打招呼方式。而居家隔离、不敢出门的人们纷纷涌向了买菜App，生鲜电商“压力山大”，货物短缺、人员匮乏、运力不足、系统崩溃等等问题随之而来。这种火热的状况，对于在2019年“九死一生”的生鲜电商来说，是一次机会吗？本次肺炎疫情对生鲜电商来说确实是机遇：一方面是培养用户的消费习惯；另一方面，在过去，供应链是制约生鲜电商最大因素，这次疫情是考验和做强供应链的机会，有利于吸引资本进入。但同时，如果能力不足，则有可能在此期间被逐渐淘汰。【详细了解】三问疫情下的\"抢菜大战\"：要持续多久？是多大机会？3 互联网行业迎来又一春？《王者荣耀》的爆发未必是好事前面提到，有观点认为当年的“非典”疫情成就了淘宝、京东等互联网电商，但在今天，互联网与传统经济的结合已经非常非常深了，所以在传统经济受到打击以后，互联网受到的传导性是非常明显的，再也无法像17年前一样，坐收增长的红利。例如中小企业死掉没有人去百度做广告，小微企业餐馆死掉，没有去美团做推广，一些供应链电商背后的厂商破产，就没有人去提供拼多多、聚划算的货源。有人说腾讯王者荣耀一天20亿的收入，对腾讯来讲赚得很开心。但事实上这反映了危机：大家都闲下来，闲到一个游戏可以一天赚20亿。中国这样一个已经增速放缓的经济体，出现大家都闲下来的情况，并不是什么好事。从机会角度看，谁能从本次疫情中找到最大的新需求增量，谁的未来就最光明。现在，我们对疫情的了解、围堵、跟踪、分析，基本上都有ai+big 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