摸虎校尉的个人主页 - 老虎社区

摸虎校尉

摸虎校尉

向市场学习

IP属地：未知

51关注

5粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2020-08-26

$蔚来(NIO)$2个晚上的功夫

2020-07-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$这一波操作能迎来点赞👍加关注吗？👀

2020-08-27

$蔚来(NIO)$卖了换成美国网存

2020-08-19

$老虎证券(TIGR)$买！

2020-08-18

$老虎证券(TIGR)$什么也不想说~

2020-07-21

$乐信(LX)$分期乐的电销和催收薪资位居同行业领先水平。见闻近期又在组建新的地推团队，拓展新业务。持续看好你，立贴为证！

2020-07-16

$趣头条(QTT)$请继续📉

2020-08-17

$乐信(LX)$调整很充分了，考虑加仓

2020-07-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$校尉又来摸虎啦

2020-09-04

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$吓得只好来对冲，正指都不行，得用期权

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>2个晚上的功夫","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$2个晚上的功夫","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb49bce76d88004465430badc2026f2d","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973363665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513055671840343","authorId":"3513055671840343","name":"波兄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/984a830251fd6bbca1924358c5717a77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3513055671840343","authorIdStr":"3513055671840343"},"content":"腻害，我昨天买的27元的call，简直是天壤之别 [笑哭] [笑哭]","text":"腻害，我昨天买的27元的call，简直是天壤之别 [笑哭] [笑哭]","html":"腻害，我昨天买的27元的call，简直是天壤之别 [笑哭] [笑哭]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979729888,"gmtCreate":1598364351144,"gmtModify":1704218528287,"author":{"id":"3543530109657182","authorId":"3543530109657182","name":"摸虎校尉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8abea8d311df3cb9182abbc13309f22","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3543530109657182","authorIdStr":"3543530109657182"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979729888","repostId":"2060918611","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2060918611","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1597917222,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2060918611?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-20 17:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"恐慌指数VIX将上升，黄金将受益？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2060918611","media":"金十数据","summary":"股市波动性下降就可以高枕无忧了？分析师QuandaryFX指出，当心VIX指数的季节性规律！","content":"<html><body><p>距离3月底全球金融市场暴跌已过去快半年，这段时间市场的波动性已大大降低，恐慌指数VIX目前也较3月份的高位大幅回落。</p><p>分析师QuandaryFX认为，<strong>VIX指数接近完成均值回归，他提醒投资者要打起精神，因为根据VIX指数的季节性规律，从现在开始到第四季度初，恐慌指数VIX将出现反弹。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/07bdbac3-5df7-4d96-8317-d2a8819ebc7f.png\"/></p><p><strong><span>VIX指数已回归</span></strong><span><span><span><strong>至</strong></span></span></span><strong><span>均值附近，有60%的概率将反弹</span></strong></p><p>QuandaryFX做了一个统计，发现恐慌指数VIX目前正接近历史平均水平。但根据VIX指数的历史数据，它即将发生季节性反弹。</p><p>VIX指数目前为21.7，QuandaryFX指出，历史上，该指数70%以上的时间都在该数值以下。因此他认为，从统计角度分析，VIX指数目前仅较长期平均值偏离1/10个标准差，这意味着<strong>VIX指数的均值回归调整已基本结束，下个月VIX指数很可能将小幅回升。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/65a8ad9a-fd0c-4fba-935d-f90279883e11.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/09e2c72d-0123-44c6-b448-0a991a003ab1.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/b9eb9d1a-f629-4f1a-9cc2-52f9a1b613c5.png\"/></p><p>在均值回归已基本完成，不能为交易者提供更多VIX走势方向信号的情况下，QuandaryFX表示，投资者可以转向关注<strong><span>VIX指数的季节性规律。</span></strong></p><p><strong>在过去的几十年中，VIX指数</strong><strong>在</strong><strong>8月-10月波动性会上升</strong><strong>，</strong><strong>有</strong><strong>60％</strong><strong>的概率</strong><strong>上涨</strong><strong>，</strong><strong>平均上涨</strong><strong>32％</strong><strong>；</strong><strong>有40%的概率会下跌，平均下跌10</strong><strong>％</strong><strong>。</strong>QuandaryFX表示，综合来看，VIX指数指数8月-10月之间的平均变动率为上涨14％。他认为，今年很可能也不会例外。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/b168af94-8dcf-42a6-9781-8357afe2eb86.png\"/></p><p>QuandaryFX的理由是，首先，VIX指数并没有出现要背离季节性规律的迹象；更重要的是，标普500指数还在创新高。QuandaryFX指出，<strong>在标普500指数创新高的情况下，</strong><strong>VIX</strong><strong>指数</strong><strong>上涨的可能性约为60％。</strong>此外，VIX指数刚刚触及月度低点，<strong>而在</strong><strong>VIX</strong><strong>指数本身创下</strong><strong>新低的情况下，</strong><strong>接下来</strong><strong>上涨的可能性</strong><strong>也</strong><strong>约为60％。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/a36dad81-482f-446c-bc81-669033a63ec8.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/bdcde396-94a8-4d47-9017-ba728853f3dd.png\"/></p><p>综合这三项数据来看，QuandaryFX得出一个结论：<strong>在接下来的1-2个月中，VIX</strong><strong>指数的</strong><strong>上涨</strong><strong>概率</strong><strong>约为60％</strong><strong>：</strong></p><blockquote><p>VIX指数的季节性规律表明，从现在到10月，VIX指数的上涨概率约为60％；</p><p>标普500指数达到新高表明，VIX指数接下来上涨的概率约为60％；</p><p>VIX指数本身跌至新低表明，VIX指数接下来上涨的概率约为60％；</p></blockquote><p><strong><span>如何对冲波动</span></strong><span><span><span><strong>性</strong></span></span></span><strong><span>上升？</span></strong></p><p>QuandaryFX指出，<strong>投资者若想要对冲</strong><strong>VIX</strong><strong>指数可能的波动，最直接途径是<span>做空</span></strong><span><strong>VIX短期期货ETF（</strong><strong>ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF</strong><strong>，</strong><strong>简称</strong></span><strong><span>VIXY）。</span></strong></p><p>不过需要注意的是，在绝大多数时候，VIXY要比VIX指数期货贵，因为设计VIXY这个ETF的金融机构ProShares会把VIX期货的升水和换仓费也加在里面，并且还会可能有延期损耗和振荡损耗。</p><p>QuandaryFX提醒，VIXY每6个月的损耗达20-30％，这意味着若持有VIXY超过1-2年，投资者很可能白忙活一场，得不到任何收益。因此，QuandaryFX表示，<strong>如果投资者要选用该ETF，一定要及时调整头寸。</strong></p><p>此外，QuandaryFX表示，鉴于VIXY成本效益较低，加上市场波动本就是难测的，<strong><span>VIX</span></strong><span><strong>指数的</strong><strong>相关期权</strong><strong>产品</strong><strong>或许是更好的</strong><strong>对冲</strong></span><strong><span>选择。</span></strong></p><p><strong><u>那么随着VIX指数回升，投资者又该如何对冲美股可能出现的下跌呢？</u></strong></p><p>面对美股背离经济基本面屡创新高的无奈事实，投资者如果还想参与美股市场，丹尼尔·拉博（Daniel Laboe）给出了两种对冲策略。</p><p><strong><span>其一是</span></strong><span><strong>交易Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ </strong><strong>（</strong><strong>QQQ</strong></span><strong><span>），</span></strong>QQQ旨在完全复制纳斯达克100指数（Nasdaq100 Index），优点是费率低，仅为0.2%，且透明度高。此外，拉博表示，<strong>他通常会在</strong><strong>QQQ</strong><strong>到期前</strong><strong>至少一个月内</strong><strong>提前买入相关</strong><strong>期权，</strong><strong>一旦发生</strong><strong>不利</strong><strong>于他的波动，该策略还可以</strong><strong>进行</strong><strong>二次对冲。</strong></p><p>第二种方法比较简单，就是<strong><span>买入纳斯达克100指数的反向ETF，</span>比如 ProShare's S&amp;P 500 short （SH）。</strong>拉博还指出，如果投资者希望在这上面少花费资金，还可以选择3倍杠杆的SQQQ。不过，<strong>使用杠杆的话风险就很大了，</strong><strong>拉博提醒，这只能作为短线操作之用，相关头寸持有时长不应超过几个星期。</strong></p><p>拉博表示，通过这些对冲策略，投资者可以对比较倾向的点位押注，同时也能有效控制风险。一旦市场走势对投资者下注的投资组合不利，交易者还可以行权或者调整期货、ETF的相关头寸，减少风险敞口。</p><p><span>VIX指数和黄金之间的关系</span></p><p>通常而言，市场普遍认同黄金具有避险属性，在股市出现震荡和高度不确定性的情况下，投资者将转向黄金。</p><p>恐慌指数VIX在市场波动时将上升，因此<strong>理论上其数值与金价是同方向变动的，二者呈正相关。</strong>当VIX指数上升时，金价也可能将上涨。</p><p>分析师Man Yin To指出，<strong>当二者呈正相关时，</strong><strong>可以用VIX指数来预测金价。</strong></p><p>2014-2016年VIX指数和黄金基本上呈负相关，相关系数约在-0.6至-0.2之间，这段时间VIX指数对金价没有什么指导意义。但从2017年开始，二者的相关系数转为正值，约为+0.5。</p><p>目前VIX指数和黄金之间的相关系数仍为正。分析师Man Yin To提醒，根据季节性规律，VIX指数即将上升，这对黄金来说可能是一个利好。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/c0aca1d4-848e-445d-8adb-9b7cf02fdfa0.png\"/></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恐慌指数VIX将上升，黄金将受益？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恐慌指数VIX将上升，黄金将受益？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-20 17:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=63768&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>距离3月底全球金融市场暴跌已过去快半年，这段时间市场的波动性已大大降低，恐慌指数VIX目前也较3月份的高位大幅回落。分析师QuandaryFX认为，VIX指数接近完成均值回归，他提醒投资者要打起精神，因为根据VIX指数的季节性规律，从现在开始到第四季度初，恐慌指数VIX将出现反弹。VIX指数已回归至均值附近，有60%的概率将反弹QuandaryFX做了一个统计，发现恐慌指数VIX目前正接近历史...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=63768&type=news\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/9d13ac34-06fa-4da8-b224-39463120d82e.png/lite","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=63768&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2060918611","content_text":"距离3月底全球金融市场暴跌已过去快半年，这段时间市场的波动性已大大降低，恐慌指数VIX目前也较3月份的高位大幅回落。分析师QuandaryFX认为，VIX指数接近完成均值回归，他提醒投资者要打起精神，因为根据VIX指数的季节性规律，从现在开始到第四季度初，恐慌指数VIX将出现反弹。VIX指数已回归至均值附近，有60%的概率将反弹QuandaryFX做了一个统计，发现恐慌指数VIX目前正接近历史平均水平。但根据VIX指数的历史数据，它即将发生季节性反弹。VIX指数目前为21.7，QuandaryFX指出，历史上，该指数70%以上的时间都在该数值以下。因此他认为，从统计角度分析，VIX指数目前仅较长期平均值偏离1/10个标准差，这意味着VIX指数的均值回归调整已基本结束，下个月VIX指数很可能将小幅回升。在均值回归已基本完成，不能为交易者提供更多VIX走势方向信号的情况下，QuandaryFX表示，投资者可以转向关注VIX指数的季节性规律。在过去的几十年中，VIX指数在8月-10月波动性会上升，有60％的概率上涨，平均上涨32％；有40%的概率会下跌，平均下跌10％。QuandaryFX表示，综合来看，VIX指数指数8月-10月之间的平均变动率为上涨14％。他认为，今年很可能也不会例外。QuandaryFX的理由是，首先，VIX指数并没有出现要背离季节性规律的迹象；更重要的是，标普500指数还在创新高。QuandaryFX指出，在标普500指数创新高的情况下，VIX指数上涨的可能性约为60％。此外，VIX指数刚刚触及月度低点，而在VIX指数本身创下新低的情况下，接下来上涨的可能性也约为60％。综合这三项数据来看，QuandaryFX得出一个结论：在接下来的1-2个月中，VIX指数的上涨概率约为60％：VIX指数的季节性规律表明，从现在到10月，VIX指数的上涨概率约为60％；标普500指数达到新高表明，VIX指数接下来上涨的概率约为60％；VIX指数本身跌至新低表明，VIX指数接下来上涨的概率约为60％；如何对冲波动性上升？QuandaryFX指出，投资者若想要对冲VIX指数可能的波动，最直接途径是做空VIX短期期货ETF（ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF，简称VIXY）。不过需要注意的是，在绝大多数时候，VIXY要比VIX指数期货贵，因为设计VIXY这个ETF的金融机构ProShares会把VIX期货的升水和换仓费也加在里面，并且还会可能有延期损耗和振荡损耗。QuandaryFX提醒，VIXY每6个月的损耗达20-30％，这意味着若持有VIXY超过1-2年，投资者很可能白忙活一场，得不到任何收益。因此，QuandaryFX表示，如果投资者要选用该ETF，一定要及时调整头寸。此外，QuandaryFX表示，鉴于VIXY成本效益较低，加上市场波动本就是难测的，VIX指数的相关期权产品或许是更好的对冲选择。那么随着VIX指数回升，投资者又该如何对冲美股可能出现的下跌呢？面对美股背离经济基本面屡创新高的无奈事实，投资者如果还想参与美股市场，丹尼尔·拉博（Daniel Laboe）给出了两种对冲策略。其一是交易Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ （QQQ），QQQ旨在完全复制纳斯达克100指数（Nasdaq100 Index），优点是费率低，仅为0.2%，且透明度高。此外，拉博表示，他通常会在QQQ到期前至少一个月内提前买入相关期权，一旦发生不利于他的波动，该策略还可以进行二次对冲。第二种方法比较简单，就是买入纳斯达克100指数的反向ETF，比如 ProShare's S&P 500 short （SH）。拉博还指出，如果投资者希望在这上面少花费资金，还可以选择3倍杠杆的SQQQ。不过，使用杠杆的话风险就很大了，拉博提醒，这只能作为短线操作之用，相关头寸持有时长不应超过几个星期。拉博表示，通过这些对冲策略，投资者可以对比较倾向的点位押注，同时也能有效控制风险。一旦市场走势对投资者下注的投资组合不利，交易者还可以行权或者调整期货、ETF的相关头寸，减少风险敞口。VIX指数和黄金之间的关系通常而言，市场普遍认同黄金具有避险属性，在股市出现震荡和高度不确定性的情况下，投资者将转向黄金。恐慌指数VIX在市场波动时将上升，因此理论上其数值与金价是同方向变动的，二者呈正相关。当VIX指数上升时，金价也可能将上涨。分析师Man Yin 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