潮落踏雪的个人主页 - 老虎社区

潮落踏雪

潮落踏雪

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IP属地：四川

12关注

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1主题

0勋章

2021-05-24

你咋不喊挑战一万点

国泰君安研究所所长黄燕铭：沪指将挑战4000点！

2021-02-04

$小米集团-W(01810)$14的本，眼看着盈利一天天减少，清仓了，有机会再来

2020-12-29

$小米集团2012(MIU2012)$ $小米集团-W(01810)$感恩小米，祝福小米[龇牙]

2020-08-26

$金山云(KC)$盘整了这么久，该启动了吧

2020-08-11

$瘦肉猪2010(HE2010)$ 😍

2020-04-29

$波音(BA)$；如果今晚再到130以下，果断抄底

2020-04-09

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$本来想做个短线，看来要硬套成了长线[流泪]

2020-04-09

$波音(BA)$150以上就是做空的好机会[开心]

2020-04-07

$道琼斯(.DJI)$没那么简单，已经开始做空了

2020-03-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$听说裁员75%?

2020-03-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$今晚可以开始做空了吧

2020-03-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$第一次发贴，做了一个空单

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gRFEwHDyttNoPQ3wLJrgbQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gRFEwHDyttNoPQ3wLJrgbQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143333751","content_text":"上周，A股横盘震荡，三大股指有所分化。其中，顺周期板块明显降温，领涨板块再次切换回“核心资产”。在春节后的一波快速下跌后，沪指已在3400点上下盘整数月。就在市场预期年内结构性行情持续，而指数层面不会有“大波澜”的时候。昨日，国泰君安研究所所长黄燕铭发声，喊出“横盘不长久，挑战四千点”。横盘不长久  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href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gRFEwHDyttNoPQ3wLJrgbQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gRFEwHDyttNoPQ3wLJrgbQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143333751","content_text":"上周，A股横盘震荡，三大股指有所分化。其中，顺周期板块明显降温，领涨板块再次切换回“核心资产”。在春节后的一波快速下跌后，沪指已在3400点上下盘整数月。就在市场预期年内结构性行情持续，而指数层面不会有“大波澜”的时候。昨日，国泰君安研究所所长黄燕铭发声，喊出“横盘不长久，挑战四千点”。横盘不长久  挑战四千点？国泰君安策略团队认为，往后看，震荡行情还将延续但不会长久，震荡过后将是拉升，蛰伏6年，市场有望挑战沪指4000点。具体来看，拉升行情的核心驱动力来自“风险评价”的下降。第一，进入“后疫情”阶段，通胀、流动性、增长等各类宏观因素由不确定逐步走向确定，疫情防控等外围因素同样走向确定，风险评价的下行利好权益投资的展开。第二，无风险利率没有上行风险，但存在下行可能。当前美债隐含的通胀预期已行至2003年以来84%分位值水平，过高的通胀预期已充分反映了极致的供需关系，通胀预期顶点在望，流动性的负面预期需要正向修正。伴随“刚兑”逐步打破，市场的无风险收益率上行难、下行易。第三，当前风险偏好基本保持稳定。风险偏好仍处中低位置，因此仍利好蓝筹股，不看好高风险特征的小市值公司。海通证券的首席策略分析师荀玉根同样表示，目前各大指数已回到年初水平。参考历史年度振幅，今年指数再创新高概率偏大。海通证券统计了A股各主要股指在2000年至2020年间每一年的振幅（年内最高点相对最低点的涨幅），上证指数2000年以来年振幅基本都在25%以上，在大牛市或熊市的时候指数的振幅会更高，年振幅平均为61%（中位数43%）。今年以来，上证综指的低点是3月9日的3328点，如果前期低点有效，那参考历史股指的波动幅度，今年股市还有进一步向上拓宽的空间。潜在风险点：美联储何时缩表？与此同时，随着以美国为代表的海外发达国家经济持续复苏、需求进一步扩张，以美联储为首的全球央行货币政策收紧预期也再度升温。“美联储何时缩表？”近期，不少卖方策略表达出对这一问题的担忧，认为海外央行的缩表或将压缩国内政策空间。华西证券首席策略分析师李立峰在中期策略中提到，需提防下半年市场出现阶段性的外部环境冲击。李立峰认为，当美国疫苗接种率达到75%时（目前为40%左右），美联储大概率将开始讨论缩减购债规模，这个时间点或许出现在今年7至8月。不过李立峰也表示，“缩表的时间表和力度”还需考虑美国劳动力市场恢复的程度。国盛证券首席策略分析师张启尧认为，当前，流动性“由紧到不紧”的预期修正带来的做多窗口仍在，但三季度需密切关注海外对于国内流动性环境的影响和制约。对通胀压力导致的长端利率上行以及美联储收紧的担忧，或再次带来全球市场的波动，也或对国内市场风险偏好形成冲击。但也有卖方认为美联储为代表的海外央行货币政策将暂时“按兵不动”。中泰证券金融工程首席分析师唐军表示，美国货币政策难以明显收紧。美国面临的通胀压力主要是供给端和短期的，而中长期仍将面临需求不足、就业率恢复慢等问题。欧美等主要经济体面临的根本问题是债务率高和长期需求不足，正因为这样，即使把利率降到接近零，经济自身恢复信用扩张的能力仍不足，才使得美联储需要亲自下场大幅扩表，解决了短期问题，但进一步大幅增加了总的债务率导致长期问题更大。因此，美国货币政策回归常态的进度可能比预想的还要慢。配置思路：业绩确定性持续超预期国泰君安还认为，随着投资者风险评价的下降，选股思路应选择业绩从不确定走向确定的边际变化最大的股票。市场将出现蓝筹股普涨格局，与此前的差异在于中盘蓝筹领跑，大盘蓝筹跟随。行业配置上，鉴于外部经济与货币环境的确定性提升，风险评价的下降将驱动全局性行情。按照风险评价对于行业配置的受益先后程度，首推券商、银行；其次建议投资者关注建材、钢铁等周期领域；科技成长行业中新能源、医药、电子，以及疫后加快复苏的消费品同样值得关注。粤开证券策略团队认为，成交量能否持续放大将带动指数向上突破，配置方向上关注三条主线：一是回调到位、历史表现优异的核心资产。盈利能力强、长期确定性较强、产业逻辑清晰的板块仍是资金配置的重点方向。从近4年二季度各板块北向资金净流入、平均涨幅和胜率等三个方向综合看，大消费板块、大金融板块具备明显优势。其次，半导体、智能制造、新能源等高景气的科技成长仍有机会。此外，短期大宗商品市场将明显降温，但部分具备基本面支撑的大宗商品，受益于下游需求提升，“结构牛”仍将持续。安信证券策略团队表示，当前仍可继续持有核心赛道中盈利增长超预期的品种，以及估值合理且受益于疫后修复的公司。此外，非核心资产中正在孕育新主线，经济修复和转型过程中自下而上的机会值得重点关注，具体包括三条线索：1）新成长赛道：智能汽车、人工智能、军工、预制菜、集成灶、扫地机器人；2）核心赛道中能够继续持续超预期的品种：部分半导体、白酒、医药公司；3）疫后复苏链：旅游、航空、农产品等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":973360485,"gmtCreate":1598450495147,"gmtModify":1704218926278,"author":{"id":"3543886070753146","authorId":"3543886070753146","name":"潮落踏雪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e89a37ebeb0a7f603f9191da59c43e9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3543886070753146","authorIdStr":"3543886070753146"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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