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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-20
别无选择
对冲基金CIO预言:这轮行情见顶后,利率将归零,美联储资产负债表或将再度大幅膨胀
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-18
如果当世界开始意识到即使面对伊朗这样中量级的选手都无能为力的时候那美国的全球信誉将会大打折扣,包括美元信誉,但同时美国的高科技公司信誉不会降低反而会继续升高。
伊朗革命卫队向试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮开火
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-17
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
无法无天了
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-16
$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-16
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
跌了这么多还有362倍市盈率,7代人才能拿回成本[捂脸]
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-14
你是龙头那布鲁姆是什么呢?
异动解读 | 财报亏损收窄叠加债务融资利好,普拉格能源盘中大涨8.30%
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-14
氢能迟早要纳入马斯克版图
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-13
真不明白中美之间为什么就不能合作呢?或许不久的将来会走到这一步
理想很丰满,现实很骨感!美国2026年近半数据中心项目面临取消或延期
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-11
早被花完了
白宫否认同意解冻伊朗海外资产
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-11
伊朗要求美国解冻被冻结资产
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-11
以经被冻结的资产有没有可能在冻结的那一刻起就已经不存在了呢?那么大一块肥肉美国会允许它挂在自己面前而无动于衷吗?眼看着金钱在自己面前丧失了流动性和增值性那应该资本主义文化所认为的最大的恶。
谈判前夜美伊“剑拔弩张”:伊朗提“新条件”,特朗普威胁“加大打击”
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-08
伊朗提出的十条确实很多可能兑现,但先决条件是美伊之见进行了利益捆绑,如果是这样那么美国当然没有必要再次入侵伊朗,浓缩铀也可以适当放松,对伊朗的制裁可以适当放松,但唯独最后两项美国绝无可能同意,不但不会同意甚至还会继续增兵。#伊朗#以色列#霍尔木兹#
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-08
伊朗方面宣称美国将给与赔偿,有没有一种可能:美国确实会给伊朗一笔钱,但不会以赔款方式,而是以入股的方式共同参与管控霍尔木兹海峡呢?
特朗普:就伊朗问题已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-08
#伊朗#霍尔木兹海峡##以色列#伊朗方面宣称美国将给与赔偿,有没有一种可能:美国确实会给伊朗一笔钱,但不会以赔款方式,而是以入股的方式共同参与管控霍尔木兹海峡呢
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
特朗普:就伊朗问题已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-05
欧洲跌落
能源价格飙升,报道:欧盟五个成员国呼吁征收暴利税!
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-03
归根结底还是科技引领和科技跟随的差别,引领者掌握定价权,而跟随着丧失定价权。
这个财报季,财报成了最没用的东西
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
03-27
$Aemetis Inc(AMTX)$
参与起来,占个C位
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
03-26
说和做都是果,聪明人要看因//
@卢律师 索尔古德曼
:不要看说了什么 要看做了什么
@卢律师 索尔古德曼:不要看说了什么 要看做了什么
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
03-25
达利欧既是投资家也是大学者,以忘我的精神为真知赋能,显而易见达利欧是个强者,而拥有达利欧这些人也使美国在衰败的路上要慢的多。
“美国例外主义”坍塌?拉扎德预警美元神话破裂,达利欧预言霍尔木兹决战重塑格局
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
03-24
虚空夺牌
特朗普:伊朗已经同意不发展核武器,霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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23:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"对冲基金CIO预言:这轮行情见顶后,利率将归零,美联储资产负债表或将再度大幅膨胀","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106573537","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"然而,一位对冲基金首席投资官却在这轮狂欢中保持清醒——他认为,当前牛市正在酝酿一场\"代际级别的吹顶行情\",而在那之后,利率将重返零甚至负值,美联储资产负债表将大幅膨胀。他同时警告,一旦市场见顶,将面临婴儿潮一代的持续抛售压力,而AI技术对普通劳动者的冲击,或将成为下一轮熊市的\"致命一击\"。在此期间,市场经历了特朗普政府对伊朗的军事行动、美国国会丑闻、总统与美联储主席的公开摩擦,均未能打断这轮涨势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>在纳指连涨创高之际,部分专业资金正押注一场“代际级吹顶行情”。Eric Peters预计未来3–6个月标普500或再涨35%–40%,由AI基建、能源出口与外资流入驱动,并提前布局黄金与美债,押注利率重回零甚至负值。但其同时警告,婴儿潮一代抛售与AI冲击就业,或在见顶后触发剧烈熊市,当前狂欢背后风险正在积聚。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美股纳斯达克指数连续13个交易日创历史新高,市场似乎对一切利空消息免疫。然而,一位对冲基金首席投资官却在这轮狂欢中保持清醒——他认为,当前牛市正在酝酿一场"代际级别的吹顶行情",而在那之后,利率将重返零甚至负值,美联储资产负债表将大幅膨胀。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">One River Asset Management 首席投资官Eric Peters最新预判,<strong>未来3至6个月内,标普500指数可能录得35%至40%的涨幅,AI基础设施建设、外资持续流入以及美国能源出口优势将共同驱动这一行情</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他同时警告,<strong>一旦市场见顶,将面临婴儿潮一代的持续抛售压力,而AI技术对普通劳动者的冲击,或将成为下一轮熊市的"致命一击"。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_246545879\" style=\"text-align: left;\">纳斯达克连创新高,市场对利空"免疫"</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">纳斯达克指数本周收于历史新高,连涨13个交易日。在此期间,市场经历了特朗普政府对伊朗的军事行动、美国国会丑闻、总统与美联储主席的公开摩擦,均未能打断这轮涨势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Peters此前在市场恐慌期间大量卖出标普500看跌期权,随着这些期权相继到期归零,他表示将转变策略,转而买入看跌期权。他的判断是:市场正处于"吹顶拉升"阶段,行情将呈抛物线式加速,"越来越陡,直到重力接管"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从宏观背景看,美国联邦财政赤字持续扩张提供了重要支撑。2026年赤字预计将达1.9万亿美元,约占GDP的5.8%,部分预测甚至高达7%。与此同时,美国货币市场基金规模已升至7.6万亿美元,较十年前的2.7万亿美元大幅增长;银行存款约为19万亿美元,较2016年的9.5万亿美元近乎翻倍。大量资金停泊于低收益安全资产,构成潜在的入市弹药。</p><h2 id=\"id_3549036120\" style=\"text-align: left;\">"吹顶行情"逻辑:AI、能源与外资三重驱动</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Peters对这轮行情的乐观判断建立在三个相互强化的逻辑之上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">其一,AI基础设施建设的现实性。他认为,AI相关的数据中心建设、基础设施投入是真实存在的需求,并非虚幻叙事,这将持续支撑相关板块的盈利预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">其二,美国能源出口的战略红利。随着霍尔木兹海峡局势变化,全球能源买家被迫转向美国供应,"他们别无选择"。他预计这将显著推升美国GDP数据,"高得离谱"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">其三,外资持续流入。特朗普政府从沙特及其他国家撬动的投资承诺,被Peters视为实质性的资本流入信号,将进一步推高美国资产估值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在此背景下,他认为市场情绪将从当前的普遍悲观和低配状态,逐步转向FOMO(错失恐惧)驱动的追涨。"Bob下个月就要退休了,他为什么还在买英伟达?因为它在涨,而他手里有现金。"这种心理机制,在他看来正是吹顶行情的典型特征。</p><h2 id=\"id_4207996494\" style=\"text-align: left;\">资产配置:重仓股票与黄金,同时布局国债</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在具体操作层面,Peters表示自己目前"极度超配股票,鲁莽地做多黄金和白银",同时也在买入美国国债——逻辑是为下一阶段的利率归零提前布局。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场老兵们的配置序列则更具叙事色彩:先买贵金属,再买枪支,"因为一旦人们持有太多黄金,历史上都会这么做"。这一描述虽带有个人风格,但折射出部分专业投资者对地缘政治风险和货币体系稳定性的深层忧虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Peters认为,美联储的政策工具箱本质上只有两件:降息与印钞。他从不在意谁执掌美联储,因为结果是确定的——"利率将回到零,甚至负值,美联储资产负债表将大幅膨胀"。</p><h2 id=\"id_768759816\" style=\"text-align: left;\">警示:代际吹顶之后,熊市风险不容忽视</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管短期极度乐观,Peters对周期终点的判断同样清醒。他以1989年日本股市泡沫为参照,将当前行情定性为"代际级别的吹顶顶部"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他指出,当AI基础设施的"铲子真正开始挖土"之时,这一交易主题将走向终结,市场将开始寻找下一个叙事。而在牛市的另一侧,婴儿潮一代将成为持续的抛售力量——"他们持有太多股票和大房子,而年轻人根本不够多来接盘,除非价格大幅下跌"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更深层的风险来自AI技术本身。"AI就像分裂原子,是令人难以置信的技术,但对普通人来说可能是灾难性的。"他表示,这或许将成为下一轮熊市的"死亡之击"。他同时强调,熊市的特点恰恰在于,"总有一些你没有预见到的东西"。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对冲基金CIO预言:这轮行情见顶后,利率将归零,美联储资产负债表或将再度大幅膨胀</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对冲基金CIO预言:这轮行情见顶后,利率将归零,美联储资产负债表或将再度大幅膨胀\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-20 23:31 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770421><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在纳指连涨创高之际,部分专业资金正押注一场“代际级吹顶行情”。Eric Peters预计未来3–6个月标普500或再涨35%–40%,由AI基建、能源出口与外资流入驱动,并提前布局黄金与美债,押注利率重回零甚至负值。但其同时警告,婴儿潮一代抛售与AI冲击就业,或在见顶后触发剧烈熊市,当前狂欢背后风险正在积聚。美股纳斯达克指数连续13个交易日创历史新高,市场似乎对一切利空消息免疫。然而,一位对冲基金...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770421\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DIA":"道琼斯ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","SMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER SEP ETF","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income ETF","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770421","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106573537","content_text":"在纳指连涨创高之际,部分专业资金正押注一场“代际级吹顶行情”。Eric Peters预计未来3–6个月标普500或再涨35%–40%,由AI基建、能源出口与外资流入驱动,并提前布局黄金与美债,押注利率重回零甚至负值。但其同时警告,婴儿潮一代抛售与AI冲击就业,或在见顶后触发剧烈熊市,当前狂欢背后风险正在积聚。美股纳斯达克指数连续13个交易日创历史新高,市场似乎对一切利空消息免疫。然而,一位对冲基金首席投资官却在这轮狂欢中保持清醒——他认为,当前牛市正在酝酿一场\"代际级别的吹顶行情\",而在那之后,利率将重返零甚至负值,美联储资产负债表将大幅膨胀。One River Asset Management 首席投资官Eric Peters最新预判,未来3至6个月内,标普500指数可能录得35%至40%的涨幅,AI基础设施建设、外资持续流入以及美国能源出口优势将共同驱动这一行情。他同时警告,一旦市场见顶,将面临婴儿潮一代的持续抛售压力,而AI技术对普通劳动者的冲击,或将成为下一轮熊市的\"致命一击\"。纳斯达克连创新高,市场对利空\"免疫\"纳斯达克指数本周收于历史新高,连涨13个交易日。在此期间,市场经历了特朗普政府对伊朗的军事行动、美国国会丑闻、总统与美联储主席的公开摩擦,均未能打断这轮涨势。Peters此前在市场恐慌期间大量卖出标普500看跌期权,随着这些期权相继到期归零,他表示将转变策略,转而买入看跌期权。他的判断是:市场正处于\"吹顶拉升\"阶段,行情将呈抛物线式加速,\"越来越陡,直到重力接管\"。从宏观背景看,美国联邦财政赤字持续扩张提供了重要支撑。2026年赤字预计将达1.9万亿美元,约占GDP的5.8%,部分预测甚至高达7%。与此同时,美国货币市场基金规模已升至7.6万亿美元,较十年前的2.7万亿美元大幅增长;银行存款约为19万亿美元,较2016年的9.5万亿美元近乎翻倍。大量资金停泊于低收益安全资产,构成潜在的入市弹药。\"吹顶行情\"逻辑:AI、能源与外资三重驱动Peters对这轮行情的乐观判断建立在三个相互强化的逻辑之上。其一,AI基础设施建设的现实性。他认为,AI相关的数据中心建设、基础设施投入是真实存在的需求,并非虚幻叙事,这将持续支撑相关板块的盈利预期。其二,美国能源出口的战略红利。随着霍尔木兹海峡局势变化,全球能源买家被迫转向美国供应,\"他们别无选择\"。他预计这将显著推升美国GDP数据,\"高得离谱\"。其三,外资持续流入。特朗普政府从沙特及其他国家撬动的投资承诺,被Peters视为实质性的资本流入信号,将进一步推高美国资产估值。在此背景下,他认为市场情绪将从当前的普遍悲观和低配状态,逐步转向FOMO(错失恐惧)驱动的追涨。\"Bob下个月就要退休了,他为什么还在买英伟达?因为它在涨,而他手里有现金。\"这种心理机制,在他看来正是吹顶行情的典型特征。资产配置:重仓股票与黄金,同时布局国债在具体操作层面,Peters表示自己目前\"极度超配股票,鲁莽地做多黄金和白银\",同时也在买入美国国债——逻辑是为下一阶段的利率归零提前布局。市场老兵们的配置序列则更具叙事色彩:先买贵金属,再买枪支,\"因为一旦人们持有太多黄金,历史上都会这么做\"。这一描述虽带有个人风格,但折射出部分专业投资者对地缘政治风险和货币体系稳定性的深层忧虑。Peters认为,美联储的政策工具箱本质上只有两件:降息与印钞。他从不在意谁执掌美联储,因为结果是确定的——\"利率将回到零,甚至负值,美联储资产负债表将大幅膨胀\"。警示:代际吹顶之后,熊市风险不容忽视尽管短期极度乐观,Peters对周期终点的判断同样清醒。他以1989年日本股市泡沫为参照,将当前行情定性为\"代际级别的吹顶顶部\"。他指出,当AI基础设施的\"铲子真正开始挖土\"之时,这一交易主题将走向终结,市场将开始寻找下一个叙事。而在牛市的另一侧,婴儿潮一代将成为持续的抛售力量——\"他们持有太多股票和大房子,而年轻人根本不够多来接盘,除非价格大幅下跌\"。更深层的风险来自AI技术本身。\"AI就像分裂原子,是令人难以置信的技术,但对普通人来说可能是灾难性的。\"他表示,这或许将成为下一轮熊市的\"死亡之击\"。他同时强调,熊市的特点恰恰在于,\"总有一些你没有预见到的东西\"。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPUU":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":2,"SPXU":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,".DJI":2,"SPDN":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554930489438312,"gmtCreate":1776515636594,"gmtModify":1776515639428,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"如果当世界开始意识到即使面对伊朗这样中量级的选手都无能为力的时候那美国的全球信誉将会大打折扣,包括美元信誉,但同时美国的高科技公司信誉不会降低反而会继续升高。","listText":"如果当世界开始意识到即使面对伊朗这样中量级的选手都无能为力的时候那美国的全球信誉将会大打折扣,包括美元信誉,但同时美国的高科技公司信誉不会降低反而会继续升高。","text":"如果当世界开始意识到即使面对伊朗这样中量级的选手都无能为力的时候那美国的全球信誉将会大打折扣,包括美元信誉,但同时美国的高科技公司信誉不会降低反而会继续升高。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554930489438312","repostId":"1186584837","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186584837","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1776513822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186584837?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-18 20:03","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"伊朗革命卫队向试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮开火","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186584837","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"伊朗方面尚未就此表态。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。</strong></p><p>海事情报公司“油轮追踪者”网站18日在社交媒体发文说,两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。其中一艘是悬挂印度国旗的超大型油轮。伊朗方面尚未就此表态。(新华社)</p><p>英国海上贸易行动办公室:一艘油轮的船长报告称,遭到两艘伊朗革命卫队炮艇接近。伊朗革命卫队的炮艇向油轮开火,油轮及其船员报告安全。</p><p>航运消息人士:商船收到伊朗海军的无线电消息,霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭,禁止任何船只通行。</p><p>美国中央司令部:美国军队正在对进入或离开伊朗港口和沿海地区的船只实施海上封锁。</p><p><strong>伊朗方面动态</strong></p><p>伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴:伊朗军队正在英勇地捍卫属于它的土地、水域和旗帜。</p><p>伊朗副外长赛义德·哈提布扎德表示,伊朗永远不会接受美国对其港口的封锁或美国发出的任何其他“命令”。“未来永远不会有任何封锁,”他说。“殖民主义的时代必须终结,”他补充道。美国“不能向其他国家发号施令”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗革命卫队向试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮开火</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗革命卫队向试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮开火\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-18 20:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。</strong></p><p>海事情报公司“油轮追踪者”网站18日在社交媒体发文说,两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。其中一艘是悬挂印度国旗的超大型油轮。伊朗方面尚未就此表态。(新华社)</p><p>英国海上贸易行动办公室:一艘油轮的船长报告称,遭到两艘伊朗革命卫队炮艇接近。伊朗革命卫队的炮艇向油轮开火,油轮及其船员报告安全。</p><p>航运消息人士:商船收到伊朗海军的无线电消息,霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭,禁止任何船只通行。</p><p>美国中央司令部:美国军队正在对进入或离开伊朗港口和沿海地区的船只实施海上封锁。</p><p><strong>伊朗方面动态</strong></p><p>伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴:伊朗军队正在英勇地捍卫属于它的土地、水域和旗帜。</p><p>伊朗副外长赛义德·哈提布扎德表示,伊朗永远不会接受美国对其港口的封锁或美国发出的任何其他“命令”。“未来永远不会有任何封锁,”他说。“殖民主义的时代必须终结,”他补充道。美国“不能向其他国家发号施令”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8eb0f1ec1a037b8ad760d2e47cc43998","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186584837","content_text":"两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。海事情报公司“油轮追踪者”网站18日在社交媒体发文说,两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。其中一艘是悬挂印度国旗的超大型油轮。伊朗方面尚未就此表态。(新华社)英国海上贸易行动办公室:一艘油轮的船长报告称,遭到两艘伊朗革命卫队炮艇接近。伊朗革命卫队的炮艇向油轮开火,油轮及其船员报告安全。航运消息人士:商船收到伊朗海军的无线电消息,霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭,禁止任何船只通行。美国中央司令部:美国军队正在对进入或离开伊朗港口和沿海地区的船只实施海上封锁。伊朗方面动态伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴:伊朗军队正在英勇地捍卫属于它的土地、水域和旗帜。伊朗副外长赛义德·哈提布扎德表示,伊朗永远不会接受美国对其港口的封锁或美国发出的任何其他“命令”。“未来永远不会有任何封锁,”他说。“殖民主义的时代必须终结,”他补充道。美国“不能向其他国家发号施令”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554606077203816,"gmtCreate":1776436445577,"gmtModify":1776436447731,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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跌了这么多还有362倍市盈率,7代人才能拿回成本[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554005893744624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4099470509812690","authorId":"4099470509812690","name":"一只没有耳朵一只没有尾巴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4099470509812690","idStr":"4099470509812690"},"content":"评论你的人还没开户呢 [笑哭] [笑哭]","text":"评论你的人还没开户呢 [笑哭] [笑哭]","html":"评论你的人还没开户呢 [笑哭] 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</p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-14 22:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>普拉格能源(PLUG)今日盘中大涨8.30%,引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上,公司此前公布的第四季度财报显示,调整后每股亏损为0.06美元,较上年同期的每股亏损0.29美元大幅收窄,经营状况改善明显。与此同时,公司宣布获得5.25亿美元担保债务融资,并明确表态不再增发股权,有效缓解了市场对股权稀释的担忧。</p><p>上述双重利好叠加,推动股价走强。作为氢燃料电池领域龙头,普拉格能源在亏损持续收窄的背景下,通过债务融资而非股权融资补充资金,向市场释放了积极的财务纪律信号,短期内投资者情绪受到明显提振。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169193303","content_text":"普拉格能源(PLUG)今日盘中大涨8.30%,引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上,公司此前公布的第四季度财报显示,调整后每股亏损为0.06美元,较上年同期的每股亏损0.29美元大幅收窄,经营状况改善明显。与此同时,公司宣布获得5.25亿美元担保债务融资,并明确表态不再增发股权,有效缓解了市场对股权稀释的担忧。上述双重利好叠加,推动股价走强。作为氢燃料电池领域龙头,普拉格能源在亏损持续收窄的背景下,通过债务融资而非股权融资补充资金,向市场释放了积极的财务纪律信号,短期内投资者情绪受到明显提振。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":553541804520464,"gmtCreate":1776176611230,"gmtModify":1776176624134,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"氢能迟早要纳入马斯克版图","listText":"氢能迟早要纳入马斯克版图","text":"氢能迟早要纳入马斯克版图","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298be9db14b1a1484bdd44ed9936087c","width":"1080","height":"1467"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/553541804520464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","name":"无情的交易机器","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","idStr":"4100517425095450"},"content":"我赌他一定不会。","text":"我赌他一定不会。","html":"我赌他一定不会。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":553124572804680,"gmtCreate":1776074756006,"gmtModify":1776074758419,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"真不明白中美之间为什么就不能合作呢?或许不久的将来会走到这一步","listText":"真不明白中美之间为什么就不能合作呢?或许不久的将来会走到这一步","text":"真不明白中美之间为什么就不能合作呢?或许不久的将来会走到这一步","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/553124572804680","repostId":"2627482355","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2627482355","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776062732,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2627482355?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-13 14:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"理想很丰满,现实很骨感!美国2026年近半数据中心项目面临取消或延期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2627482355","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国今年计划新增的16吉瓦数据中心容量,预计30%至50%将延期或取消,实际在建仅约5吉瓦——与科技巨头逾7000亿美元资本开支形成刺眼反差。变压器交货周期最长拖至五年、核电承诺停于口头、社区阻力持续升温,摩根大通估算完整支撑本轮AI周期所需资金不低于5万亿美元","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美国今年计划新增的16吉瓦数据中心容量,预计30%至50%将延期或取消,实际在建仅约5吉瓦——与科技巨头逾7000亿美元资本开支形成刺眼反差。变压器交货周期最长拖至五年、核电承诺停于口头、社区阻力持续升温,摩根大通估算完整支撑本轮AI周期所需资金不低于5万亿美元</p></blockquote><p>美国人工智能基础设施扩张的宏大叙事正遭遇严峻的现实检验。</p><p>据Sightline Climate发布的最新《2026年数据中心展望》报告,<strong>美国今年计划新增的约16吉瓦数据中心容量中,预计有30%至50%将面临延期或取消,而目前真正进入施工阶段的仅约5吉瓦。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc838c218d5285080428b1d68df39892\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"489\"/></p><p>这一数字与超大规模云计算企业逾7000亿美元的年度资本开支预算形成鲜明反差,揭示出AI基础设施建设在电力供应、供应链及社会政治层面的深层困境。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCORF\">Canaccord Genuity</a>分析师George Gianarikas将这一局面概括为"美国数据中心热潮正撞上一堵强大的后勤阻力之墙"。据彭博报道,<strong>变压器、开关设备及电池等电气设备的严重短缺是延误的主要原因之一,美国国内制造产能远不足以满足需求,建设方不得不依赖进口。</strong>与此同时,社区反对、许可审批障碍以及电网整合滞后,正共同压缩项目落地的可行性空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_1394318667\">供需缺口触目惊心,2027年后前景更加黯淡</h2><p>Sightline Climate的报告显示,<strong>2026年全美共有140个数据中心项目计划投入运营,合计容量约16吉瓦,其中53%将接入电网,3%依靠自备电源,另有25%尚未披露供电方案。</strong></p><p>然而,在这16吉瓦的规划容量中,仍有11吉瓦停留在"宣布阶段",毫无施工迹象——而数据中心的典型建设周期为12至18个月,这意味着这部分产能按时落地的可能性极低。</p><p>展望2027年,缺口进一步扩大。已宣布的规划容量达21.5吉瓦,但实际在建规模仅约6.3吉瓦。2028年至2032年间的情况则更为严峻:<strong>绝大多数规划项目尚未破土动工,另有37吉瓦的规划基础设施甚至未获得明确竣工日期,其中仅4.5吉瓦已实际开工。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_757988515\">变压器瓶颈卡住命脉,供应链高度依赖进口</h2><p>电力基础设施的短缺是制约数据中心建设的核心瓶颈。<strong>数据中心规模的快速扩张要求配备更大功率的变压器,以将高压电网的电力安全转换后输送至芯片。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEV\">GE Vernova</a>电气化部门首席执行官Philippe Piron指出,2020年以前,大功率变压器的交货周期通常为24至30个月,在旧有模式下"完全可以接受",但AI企业通常要求在18个月内完成交付。</p><p>需求激增已将变压器交货周期推延至最长五年,价格亦大幅攀升。部分企业不得不采取权宜之计,例如Crusoe已开始翻新废弃电厂的旧变压器以应急。</p><p>变压器等电气设备的需求压力不仅来自数据中心,电动汽车和热泵的普及同样在推高电网扩容需求,而美国国内制造产能根本无力跟上,进口依赖由此加深。这一困境折射出美国数十年来将制造业外包的深层结构性问题——尽管近年来回流制造的政策呼声不断,但实质性产能提升迄今收效甚微。</p><h2 id=\"id_4032766747\">核电承诺落空,资金缺口高达数万亿</h2><p>电力供给侧的困境同样不容乐观。特朗普政府关于核电复兴的承诺目前仍停留于口头,几乎没有新核电站破土动工,小型模块化反应堆虽被视为希望所在,但距离实际规模化应用仍需数年时间。</p><p><strong>少数超大型自备电源项目正试图绕开电网限制,</strong>包括New Era Energy & Digital在新墨西哥州Lea County规划的7吉瓦项目、Homer City在宾夕法尼亚州的4.5吉瓦煤改气项目,以及Crusoe在怀俄明州夏延的1.8吉瓦天然气与可再生能源混合项目。<strong>报告指出,等待电网提供这一量级的供电能力"可能需要十年时间"。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fa1ecc5a52a7159497fb693d7fae202\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"609\"/></p><p>资金层面,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的分析显示,完整支撑本轮AI周期所需资金不低于5万亿美元,即便超大规模云计算企业持续加大资本开支,美国政府仍需填补逾1万亿美元的资金缺口。</p><h2 id=\"id_687594474\">社会阻力升温,公众情绪加速转向</h2><p>基础设施层面的困境之外,社会政治阻力同样在快速积聚。缅因州众议院以82票对62票通过了一项针对大型数据中心的暂停令,禁止相关项目建设至2027年,并同步成立缅因数据中心协调委员会,以评估数据中心对该州资源、环境及财政的影响。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>执行董事Shreeti Kapa在近期一份报告中写道,她在与投资者的晚宴交流中感受到强烈共识:"算力根本不够用,每个参与者都面临严峻的算力约束——从晶圆厂到数据中心许可审批,再到电力、内存和劳动力,瓶颈真实存在,且将持续相当长时间。"</p><p>昆尼皮亚克大学的最新民调则显示,公众对AI深度融入医疗、教育及日常生活的警惕情绪正在快速上升,进一步加大了行业扩张的社会摩擦成本。</p><p>Canaccord总结称:"能源约束在加剧,社会政治约束同样在加剧。某些东西必须做出改变。"在资本充裕却落地受阻的现实面前,美国AI基础设施的扩张之路远比市场预期更为曲折。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>理想很丰满,现实很骨感!美国2026年近半数据中心项目面临取消或延期</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n理想很丰满,现实很骨感!美国2026年近半数据中心项目面临取消或延期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-13 14:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美国今年计划新增的16吉瓦数据中心容量,预计30%至50%将延期或取消,实际在建仅约5吉瓦——与科技巨头逾7000亿美元资本开支形成刺眼反差。变压器交货周期最长拖至五年、核电承诺停于口头、社区阻力持续升温,摩根大通估算完整支撑本轮AI周期所需资金不低于5万亿美元</p></blockquote><p>美国人工智能基础设施扩张的宏大叙事正遭遇严峻的现实检验。</p><p>据Sightline Climate发布的最新《2026年数据中心展望》报告,<strong>美国今年计划新增的约16吉瓦数据中心容量中,预计有30%至50%将面临延期或取消,而目前真正进入施工阶段的仅约5吉瓦。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc838c218d5285080428b1d68df39892\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"489\"/></p><p>这一数字与超大规模云计算企业逾7000亿美元的年度资本开支预算形成鲜明反差,揭示出AI基础设施建设在电力供应、供应链及社会政治层面的深层困境。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCORF\">Canaccord Genuity</a>分析师George Gianarikas将这一局面概括为"美国数据中心热潮正撞上一堵强大的后勤阻力之墙"。据彭博报道,<strong>变压器、开关设备及电池等电气设备的严重短缺是延误的主要原因之一,美国国内制造产能远不足以满足需求,建设方不得不依赖进口。</strong>与此同时,社区反对、许可审批障碍以及电网整合滞后,正共同压缩项目落地的可行性空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_1394318667\">供需缺口触目惊心,2027年后前景更加黯淡</h2><p>Sightline Climate的报告显示,<strong>2026年全美共有140个数据中心项目计划投入运营,合计容量约16吉瓦,其中53%将接入电网,3%依靠自备电源,另有25%尚未披露供电方案。</strong></p><p>然而,在这16吉瓦的规划容量中,仍有11吉瓦停留在"宣布阶段",毫无施工迹象——而数据中心的典型建设周期为12至18个月,这意味着这部分产能按时落地的可能性极低。</p><p>展望2027年,缺口进一步扩大。已宣布的规划容量达21.5吉瓦,但实际在建规模仅约6.3吉瓦。2028年至2032年间的情况则更为严峻:<strong>绝大多数规划项目尚未破土动工,另有37吉瓦的规划基础设施甚至未获得明确竣工日期,其中仅4.5吉瓦已实际开工。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_757988515\">变压器瓶颈卡住命脉,供应链高度依赖进口</h2><p>电力基础设施的短缺是制约数据中心建设的核心瓶颈。<strong>数据中心规模的快速扩张要求配备更大功率的变压器,以将高压电网的电力安全转换后输送至芯片。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEV\">GE Vernova</a>电气化部门首席执行官Philippe Piron指出,2020年以前,大功率变压器的交货周期通常为24至30个月,在旧有模式下"完全可以接受",但AI企业通常要求在18个月内完成交付。</p><p>需求激增已将变压器交货周期推延至最长五年,价格亦大幅攀升。部分企业不得不采取权宜之计,例如Crusoe已开始翻新废弃电厂的旧变压器以应急。</p><p>变压器等电气设备的需求压力不仅来自数据中心,电动汽车和热泵的普及同样在推高电网扩容需求,而美国国内制造产能根本无力跟上,进口依赖由此加深。这一困境折射出美国数十年来将制造业外包的深层结构性问题——尽管近年来回流制造的政策呼声不断,但实质性产能提升迄今收效甚微。</p><h2 id=\"id_4032766747\">核电承诺落空,资金缺口高达数万亿</h2><p>电力供给侧的困境同样不容乐观。特朗普政府关于核电复兴的承诺目前仍停留于口头,几乎没有新核电站破土动工,小型模块化反应堆虽被视为希望所在,但距离实际规模化应用仍需数年时间。</p><p><strong>少数超大型自备电源项目正试图绕开电网限制,</strong>包括New Era Energy & Digital在新墨西哥州Lea County规划的7吉瓦项目、Homer City在宾夕法尼亚州的4.5吉瓦煤改气项目,以及Crusoe在怀俄明州夏延的1.8吉瓦天然气与可再生能源混合项目。<strong>报告指出,等待电网提供这一量级的供电能力"可能需要十年时间"。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fa1ecc5a52a7159497fb693d7fae202\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"609\"/></p><p>资金层面,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的分析显示,完整支撑本轮AI周期所需资金不低于5万亿美元,即便超大规模云计算企业持续加大资本开支,美国政府仍需填补逾1万亿美元的资金缺口。</p><h2 id=\"id_687594474\">社会阻力升温,公众情绪加速转向</h2><p>基础设施层面的困境之外,社会政治阻力同样在快速积聚。缅因州众议院以82票对62票通过了一项针对大型数据中心的暂停令,禁止相关项目建设至2027年,并同步成立缅因数据中心协调委员会,以评估数据中心对该州资源、环境及财政的影响。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>执行董事Shreeti Kapa在近期一份报告中写道,她在与投资者的晚宴交流中感受到强烈共识:"算力根本不够用,每个参与者都面临严峻的算力约束——从晶圆厂到数据中心许可审批,再到电力、内存和劳动力,瓶颈真实存在,且将持续相当长时间。"</p><p>昆尼皮亚克大学的最新民调则显示,公众对AI深度融入医疗、教育及日常生活的警惕情绪正在快速上升,进一步加大了行业扩张的社会摩擦成本。</p><p>Canaccord总结称:"能源约束在加剧,社会政治约束同样在加剧。某些东西必须做出改变。"在资本充裕却落地受阻的现实面前,美国AI基础设施的扩张之路远比市场预期更为曲折。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c87a679ede1e23d7f01b3e330ca38448","relate_stocks":{"BLOK":"Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF","DTCR":"Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769806","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2627482355","content_text":"美国今年计划新增的16吉瓦数据中心容量,预计30%至50%将延期或取消,实际在建仅约5吉瓦——与科技巨头逾7000亿美元资本开支形成刺眼反差。变压器交货周期最长拖至五年、核电承诺停于口头、社区阻力持续升温,摩根大通估算完整支撑本轮AI周期所需资金不低于5万亿美元美国人工智能基础设施扩张的宏大叙事正遭遇严峻的现实检验。据Sightline Climate发布的最新《2026年数据中心展望》报告,美国今年计划新增的约16吉瓦数据中心容量中,预计有30%至50%将面临延期或取消,而目前真正进入施工阶段的仅约5吉瓦。这一数字与超大规模云计算企业逾7000亿美元的年度资本开支预算形成鲜明反差,揭示出AI基础设施建设在电力供应、供应链及社会政治层面的深层困境。Canaccord Genuity分析师George Gianarikas将这一局面概括为\"美国数据中心热潮正撞上一堵强大的后勤阻力之墙\"。据彭博报道,变压器、开关设备及电池等电气设备的严重短缺是延误的主要原因之一,美国国内制造产能远不足以满足需求,建设方不得不依赖进口。与此同时,社区反对、许可审批障碍以及电网整合滞后,正共同压缩项目落地的可行性空间。供需缺口触目惊心,2027年后前景更加黯淡Sightline Climate的报告显示,2026年全美共有140个数据中心项目计划投入运营,合计容量约16吉瓦,其中53%将接入电网,3%依靠自备电源,另有25%尚未披露供电方案。然而,在这16吉瓦的规划容量中,仍有11吉瓦停留在\"宣布阶段\",毫无施工迹象——而数据中心的典型建设周期为12至18个月,这意味着这部分产能按时落地的可能性极低。展望2027年,缺口进一步扩大。已宣布的规划容量达21.5吉瓦,但实际在建规模仅约6.3吉瓦。2028年至2032年间的情况则更为严峻:绝大多数规划项目尚未破土动工,另有37吉瓦的规划基础设施甚至未获得明确竣工日期,其中仅4.5吉瓦已实际开工。变压器瓶颈卡住命脉,供应链高度依赖进口电力基础设施的短缺是制约数据中心建设的核心瓶颈。数据中心规模的快速扩张要求配备更大功率的变压器,以将高压电网的电力安全转换后输送至芯片。GE Vernova电气化部门首席执行官Philippe Piron指出,2020年以前,大功率变压器的交货周期通常为24至30个月,在旧有模式下\"完全可以接受\",但AI企业通常要求在18个月内完成交付。需求激增已将变压器交货周期推延至最长五年,价格亦大幅攀升。部分企业不得不采取权宜之计,例如Crusoe已开始翻新废弃电厂的旧变压器以应急。变压器等电气设备的需求压力不仅来自数据中心,电动汽车和热泵的普及同样在推高电网扩容需求,而美国国内制造产能根本无力跟上,进口依赖由此加深。这一困境折射出美国数十年来将制造业外包的深层结构性问题——尽管近年来回流制造的政策呼声不断,但实质性产能提升迄今收效甚微。核电承诺落空,资金缺口高达数万亿电力供给侧的困境同样不容乐观。特朗普政府关于核电复兴的承诺目前仍停留于口头,几乎没有新核电站破土动工,小型模块化反应堆虽被视为希望所在,但距离实际规模化应用仍需数年时间。少数超大型自备电源项目正试图绕开电网限制,包括New Era Energy & Digital在新墨西哥州Lea County规划的7吉瓦项目、Homer City在宾夕法尼亚州的4.5吉瓦煤改气项目,以及Crusoe在怀俄明州夏延的1.8吉瓦天然气与可再生能源混合项目。报告指出,等待电网提供这一量级的供电能力\"可能需要十年时间\"。资金层面,摩根大通的分析显示,完整支撑本轮AI周期所需资金不低于5万亿美元,即便超大规模云计算企业持续加大资本开支,美国政府仍需填补逾1万亿美元的资金缺口。社会阻力升温,公众情绪加速转向基础设施层面的困境之外,社会政治阻力同样在快速积聚。缅因州众议院以82票对62票通过了一项针对大型数据中心的暂停令,禁止相关项目建设至2027年,并同步成立缅因数据中心协调委员会,以评估数据中心对该州资源、环境及财政的影响。高盛执行董事Shreeti Kapa在近期一份报告中写道,她在与投资者的晚宴交流中感受到强烈共识:\"算力根本不够用,每个参与者都面临严峻的算力约束——从晶圆厂到数据中心许可审批,再到电力、内存和劳动力,瓶颈真实存在,且将持续相当长时间。\"昆尼皮亚克大学的最新民调则显示,公众对AI深度融入医疗、教育及日常生活的警惕情绪正在快速上升,进一步加大了行业扩张的社会摩擦成本。Canaccord总结称:\"能源约束在加剧,社会政治约束同样在加剧。某些东西必须做出改变。\"在资本充裕却落地受阻的现实面前,美国AI基础设施的扩张之路远比市场预期更为曲折。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLOK":1.5,"DTCR":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":552433884731640,"gmtCreate":1775906195316,"gmtModify":1775906197787,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"早被花完了","listText":"早被花完了","text":"早被花完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/552433884731640","repostId":"1176123282","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176123282","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775902579,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176123282?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-11 18:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"白宫否认同意解冻伊朗海外资产","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176123282","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月11日,美国白宫官员否认美国已同意解冻伊朗资产的报道。此前,路透社曾援引伊朗消息人士的话报道称,美国已同意解冻伊朗在卡塔尔及其他外国银行被冻结的资产。(CCTV国际时讯)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月11日,美国白宫官员否认美国已同意解冻伊朗资产的报道。此前,路透社曾援引伊朗消息人士的话报道称,美国已同意解冻伊朗在卡塔尔及其他外国银行被冻结的资产。(CCTV国际时讯)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>白宫否认同意解冻伊朗海外资产</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n白宫否认同意解冻伊朗海外资产\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-11 18:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月11日,美国白宫官员否认美国已同意解冻伊朗资产的报道。此前,路透社曾援引伊朗消息人士的话报道称,美国已同意解冻伊朗在卡塔尔及其他外国银行被冻结的资产。(CCTV国际时讯)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176123282","content_text":"4月11日,美国白宫官员否认美国已同意解冻伊朗资产的报道。此前,路透社曾援引伊朗消息人士的话报道称,美国已同意解冻伊朗在卡塔尔及其他外国银行被冻结的资产。(CCTV国际时讯)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":552304606884624,"gmtCreate":1775874559601,"gmtModify":1775874571842,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"伊朗要求美国解冻被冻结资产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> ","listText":"伊朗要求美国解冻被冻结资产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> ","text":"伊朗要求美国解冻被冻结资产$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e7ac33b3a55f29b0c0c62744968375","width":"1080","height":"1758"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/552304606884624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":552303964735208,"gmtCreate":1775874472119,"gmtModify":1775874474765,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"以经被冻结的资产有没有可能在冻结的那一刻起就已经不存在了呢?那么大一块肥肉美国会允许它挂在自己面前而无动于衷吗?眼看着金钱在自己面前丧失了流动性和增值性那应该资本主义文化所认为的最大的恶。","listText":"以经被冻结的资产有没有可能在冻结的那一刻起就已经不存在了呢?那么大一块肥肉美国会允许它挂在自己面前而无动于衷吗?眼看着金钱在自己面前丧失了流动性和增值性那应该资本主义文化所认为的最大的恶。","text":"以经被冻结的资产有没有可能在冻结的那一刻起就已经不存在了呢?那么大一块肥肉美国会允许它挂在自己面前而无动于衷吗?眼看着金钱在自己面前丧失了流动性和增值性那应该资本主义文化所认为的最大的恶。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/552303964735208","repostId":"1169181107","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169181107","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775870157,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169181107?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"谈判前夜美伊“剑拔弩张”:伊朗提“新条件”,特朗普威胁“加大打击”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169181107","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美伊伊斯兰堡谈判前夜双方剑拔弩张。伊朗临时追加黎巴嫩停火与解冻资产两项先决条件,并以霍尔木兹海峡控制权为筹码;特朗普则强硬回应,威胁若谈判破裂将加大军事打击,美军正向中东增兵。伊朗临时追加谈判前提条件,特朗普则以更大规模军事打击相威胁,两国在走向谈判桌的同时,也在竭力展示各自的强硬姿态。据伊朗媒体披露,若美方接受伊方先决条件,双方将于当天下午在塞雷纳酒店正式启动谈判。伊朗军方的表态同样强硬。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美伊伊斯兰堡谈判前夜双方剑拔弩张。伊朗临时追加黎巴嫩停火与解冻资产两项先决条件,并以霍尔木兹海峡控制权为筹码;特朗普则强硬回应,威胁若谈判破裂将加大军事打击,美军正向中东增兵。尽管分歧严重,双方代表团均已抵达,谈判仍按计划推进。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美伊伊斯兰堡谈判前夜,双方隔空交锋,将紧张态势推至临界点。<strong>伊朗临时追加谈判前提条件,特朗普则以更大规模军事打击相威胁</strong>,两国在走向谈判桌的同时,也在竭力展示各自的强硬姿态。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社,伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫周五在社交媒体公开提出两项前提条件——黎巴嫩停火,以及解冻伊朗被冻结资产——其中解冻资产被外界视为伊方首次公开提出的新条件。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,据央视援引特朗普周五在美媒采访时的讲话称,若谈判破裂,美国将以"更大力度"恢复军事行动,并称美军舰艇已装载"最先进武器",随时准备使用。特朗普的上述表态令美股承压,标普500指数盘中转跌,道指跌幅扩大,两大指数均止步连涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09b01f6e1fd7e6472dc7babc815f919\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管双方剑拔弩张,谈判最终仍得以推进。据新华社,巴基斯坦外交部11日凌晨确认,伊朗代表团已抵达伊斯兰堡,将参加当天举行的美伊会谈。据伊朗媒体披露,若美方接受伊方先决条件,双方将于当天下午在塞雷纳酒店正式启动谈判。</p><h2 id=\"id_2205601968\">伊朗临时追加"新条件",谈判前景蒙上阴影</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伊朗此番亮出的前提条件,令原本已充满变数的谈判更加复杂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">卡利巴夫在社交媒体发文称,黎巴嫩停火与解冻伊朗被冻结资产"这两项事宜必须在谈判启动之前予以兑现"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体报道指出,伊朗官员此前的公开表态主要聚焦于要求以色列停止对黎巴嫩的军事行动,此次公开提及解冻资产,是伊方新增的一项前提条件。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据报道,卡利巴夫所指很可能是约60亿美元的伊朗石油销售收入——该笔资金自2023年秋起存放于卡塔尔,为美伊换囚协议的一部分,但拜登政府在2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以色列后冻结了伊朗对该笔资金的使用权。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据华尔街日报,危机解决组织伊朗项目主任Ali Vaez认为,<strong>卡利巴夫在谈判前夜将前提条件"加码",很可能是为了强化伊朗的核心诉求</strong>——要求以色列停止对真主党的打击。但他同时警告,这一策略存在反噬风险:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"伊朗确实善于强硬谈判,但往往在必须展现灵活性时失去弹性,结果是错失机会多于争取到实质利益。"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是,伊朗的强硬姿态并非没有底气。据华尔街日报,<strong>伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权,是此次谈判中一个高度敏感的变量。</strong>尽管两周停火协议已于本周达成,伊朗仍威胁摧毁未经其许可通行的船只,并持续向部分船只收取"过路费",令海峡通行量维持在极低水平。<strong>这一筹码,是伊朗在谈判桌上最具分量的杠杆之一。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伊朗军方的表态同样强硬。据新华社,伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人周五发表声明称,鉴于美国和以色列屡次违背承诺,伊朗武装力量始终将"指头放在扳机上",随时准备开火,并将继续掌握对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权。</p><h2 id=\"id_3113966957\">特朗普威胁"加大打击",美军持续向中东增兵</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对伊朗的强硬姿态,特朗普选择以更直接的军事威胁予以回应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视援引特朗普周五在美媒采访时的讲话,若无法与伊朗达成和平协议,美国将以更大力度恢复军事行动,美方正在"重新部署",并已为军舰装载"最先进的武器",若谈判失败将"非常有效地使用"。特朗普还表示,与伊朗的会谈结果将在24小时内明朗。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在社交媒体上,特朗普措辞更为强烈,称伊朗"没有底牌","除了利用国际航道对全世界进行短暂的敲诈勒索之外,他们手里根本没有任何筹码",并称伊方"存活至今唯一的理由就是为了谈判"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,美军正持续向中东增兵。据美媒援引飞行追踪数据和美国官员消息,来自美国陆军精锐部队第82空降师的1500至2000名官兵预计将在未来数日内抵达中东,数千名海军官兵和海军陆战队员也正启程前往该地区。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"布什"号航母编队已于3月底从弗吉尼亚州启程,搭载第11海军陆战队远征部队的"拳师"号两栖攻击舰编队则于3月中旬从加州出发,上述舰艇预计需一周以上才能抵达中东。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,在强硬姿态之外,美方也释放出一定的谈判诚意。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社,副总统万斯在启程前表示,美方对此次谈判"充满期待",若伊方愿意本着诚意进行谈判,美方"当然也愿意伸出橄榄枝"。万斯率领的代表团包括总统特使威特科夫及特朗普女婿库什纳,美方还计划在谈判中提出要求伊方释放被关押的美国公民。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据华尔街日报,华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员Michael Singh认为,<strong>此次谈判最可能的结果是一项"最低限度协议"——伊朗承诺不发展核武器并开放海峡,换取部分制裁松绑和停火延续。</strong>这一判断,或许也是当前市场对谈判前景最为务实的预期。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谈判前夜美伊“剑拔弩张”:伊朗提“新条件”,特朗普威胁“加大打击”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谈判前夜美伊“剑拔弩张”:伊朗提“新条件”,特朗普威胁“加大打击”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-11 09:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美伊伊斯兰堡谈判前夜双方剑拔弩张。伊朗临时追加黎巴嫩停火与解冻资产两项先决条件,并以霍尔木兹海峡控制权为筹码;特朗普则强硬回应,威胁若谈判破裂将加大军事打击,美军正向中东增兵。尽管分歧严重,双方代表团均已抵达,谈判仍按计划推进。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美伊伊斯兰堡谈判前夜,双方隔空交锋,将紧张态势推至临界点。<strong>伊朗临时追加谈判前提条件,特朗普则以更大规模军事打击相威胁</strong>,两国在走向谈判桌的同时,也在竭力展示各自的强硬姿态。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社,伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫周五在社交媒体公开提出两项前提条件——黎巴嫩停火,以及解冻伊朗被冻结资产——其中解冻资产被外界视为伊方首次公开提出的新条件。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,据央视援引特朗普周五在美媒采访时的讲话称,若谈判破裂,美国将以"更大力度"恢复军事行动,并称美军舰艇已装载"最先进武器",随时准备使用。特朗普的上述表态令美股承压,标普500指数盘中转跌,道指跌幅扩大,两大指数均止步连涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09b01f6e1fd7e6472dc7babc815f919\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管双方剑拔弩张,谈判最终仍得以推进。据新华社,巴基斯坦外交部11日凌晨确认,伊朗代表团已抵达伊斯兰堡,将参加当天举行的美伊会谈。据伊朗媒体披露,若美方接受伊方先决条件,双方将于当天下午在塞雷纳酒店正式启动谈判。</p><h2 id=\"id_2205601968\">伊朗临时追加"新条件",谈判前景蒙上阴影</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伊朗此番亮出的前提条件,令原本已充满变数的谈判更加复杂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">卡利巴夫在社交媒体发文称,黎巴嫩停火与解冻伊朗被冻结资产"这两项事宜必须在谈判启动之前予以兑现"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体报道指出,伊朗官员此前的公开表态主要聚焦于要求以色列停止对黎巴嫩的军事行动,此次公开提及解冻资产,是伊方新增的一项前提条件。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据报道,卡利巴夫所指很可能是约60亿美元的伊朗石油销售收入——该笔资金自2023年秋起存放于卡塔尔,为美伊换囚协议的一部分,但拜登政府在2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以色列后冻结了伊朗对该笔资金的使用权。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据华尔街日报,危机解决组织伊朗项目主任Ali Vaez认为,<strong>卡利巴夫在谈判前夜将前提条件"加码",很可能是为了强化伊朗的核心诉求</strong>——要求以色列停止对真主党的打击。但他同时警告,这一策略存在反噬风险:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"伊朗确实善于强硬谈判,但往往在必须展现灵活性时失去弹性,结果是错失机会多于争取到实质利益。"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是,伊朗的强硬姿态并非没有底气。据华尔街日报,<strong>伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权,是此次谈判中一个高度敏感的变量。</strong>尽管两周停火协议已于本周达成,伊朗仍威胁摧毁未经其许可通行的船只,并持续向部分船只收取"过路费",令海峡通行量维持在极低水平。<strong>这一筹码,是伊朗在谈判桌上最具分量的杠杆之一。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伊朗军方的表态同样强硬。据新华社,伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人周五发表声明称,鉴于美国和以色列屡次违背承诺,伊朗武装力量始终将"指头放在扳机上",随时准备开火,并将继续掌握对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权。</p><h2 id=\"id_3113966957\">特朗普威胁"加大打击",美军持续向中东增兵</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对伊朗的强硬姿态,特朗普选择以更直接的军事威胁予以回应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视援引特朗普周五在美媒采访时的讲话,若无法与伊朗达成和平协议,美国将以更大力度恢复军事行动,美方正在"重新部署",并已为军舰装载"最先进的武器",若谈判失败将"非常有效地使用"。特朗普还表示,与伊朗的会谈结果将在24小时内明朗。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在社交媒体上,特朗普措辞更为强烈,称伊朗"没有底牌","除了利用国际航道对全世界进行短暂的敲诈勒索之外,他们手里根本没有任何筹码",并称伊方"存活至今唯一的理由就是为了谈判"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,美军正持续向中东增兵。据美媒援引飞行追踪数据和美国官员消息,来自美国陆军精锐部队第82空降师的1500至2000名官兵预计将在未来数日内抵达中东,数千名海军官兵和海军陆战队员也正启程前往该地区。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"布什"号航母编队已于3月底从弗吉尼亚州启程,搭载第11海军陆战队远征部队的"拳师"号两栖攻击舰编队则于3月中旬从加州出发,上述舰艇预计需一周以上才能抵达中东。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,在强硬姿态之外,美方也释放出一定的谈判诚意。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社,副总统万斯在启程前表示,美方对此次谈判"充满期待",若伊方愿意本着诚意进行谈判,美方"当然也愿意伸出橄榄枝"。万斯率领的代表团包括总统特使威特科夫及特朗普女婿库什纳,美方还计划在谈判中提出要求伊方释放被关押的美国公民。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据华尔街日报,华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员Michael Singh认为,<strong>此次谈判最可能的结果是一项"最低限度协议"——伊朗承诺不发展核武器并开放海峡,换取部分制裁松绑和停火延续。</strong>这一判断,或许也是当前市场对谈判前景最为务实的预期。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/27a59de60246d0e609bc6736f85940c5","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169181107","content_text":"美伊伊斯兰堡谈判前夜双方剑拔弩张。伊朗临时追加黎巴嫩停火与解冻资产两项先决条件,并以霍尔木兹海峡控制权为筹码;特朗普则强硬回应,威胁若谈判破裂将加大军事打击,美军正向中东增兵。尽管分歧严重,双方代表团均已抵达,谈判仍按计划推进。美伊伊斯兰堡谈判前夜,双方隔空交锋,将紧张态势推至临界点。伊朗临时追加谈判前提条件,特朗普则以更大规模军事打击相威胁,两国在走向谈判桌的同时,也在竭力展示各自的强硬姿态。据新华社,伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫周五在社交媒体公开提出两项前提条件——黎巴嫩停火,以及解冻伊朗被冻结资产——其中解冻资产被外界视为伊方首次公开提出的新条件。与此同时,据央视援引特朗普周五在美媒采访时的讲话称,若谈判破裂,美国将以\"更大力度\"恢复军事行动,并称美军舰艇已装载\"最先进武器\",随时准备使用。特朗普的上述表态令美股承压,标普500指数盘中转跌,道指跌幅扩大,两大指数均止步连涨。尽管双方剑拔弩张,谈判最终仍得以推进。据新华社,巴基斯坦外交部11日凌晨确认,伊朗代表团已抵达伊斯兰堡,将参加当天举行的美伊会谈。据伊朗媒体披露,若美方接受伊方先决条件,双方将于当天下午在塞雷纳酒店正式启动谈判。伊朗临时追加\"新条件\",谈判前景蒙上阴影伊朗此番亮出的前提条件,令原本已充满变数的谈判更加复杂。卡利巴夫在社交媒体发文称,黎巴嫩停火与解冻伊朗被冻结资产\"这两项事宜必须在谈判启动之前予以兑现\"。媒体报道指出,伊朗官员此前的公开表态主要聚焦于要求以色列停止对黎巴嫩的军事行动,此次公开提及解冻资产,是伊方新增的一项前提条件。据报道,卡利巴夫所指很可能是约60亿美元的伊朗石油销售收入——该笔资金自2023年秋起存放于卡塔尔,为美伊换囚协议的一部分,但拜登政府在2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以色列后冻结了伊朗对该笔资金的使用权。据华尔街日报,危机解决组织伊朗项目主任Ali Vaez认为,卡利巴夫在谈判前夜将前提条件\"加码\",很可能是为了强化伊朗的核心诉求——要求以色列停止对真主党的打击。但他同时警告,这一策略存在反噬风险:\"伊朗确实善于强硬谈判,但往往在必须展现灵活性时失去弹性,结果是错失机会多于争取到实质利益。\"值得注意的是,伊朗的强硬姿态并非没有底气。据华尔街日报,伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权,是此次谈判中一个高度敏感的变量。尽管两周停火协议已于本周达成,伊朗仍威胁摧毁未经其许可通行的船只,并持续向部分船只收取\"过路费\",令海峡通行量维持在极低水平。这一筹码,是伊朗在谈判桌上最具分量的杠杆之一。伊朗军方的表态同样强硬。据新华社,伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人周五发表声明称,鉴于美国和以色列屡次违背承诺,伊朗武装力量始终将\"指头放在扳机上\",随时准备开火,并将继续掌握对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权。特朗普威胁\"加大打击\",美军持续向中东增兵面对伊朗的强硬姿态,特朗普选择以更直接的军事威胁予以回应。据央视援引特朗普周五在美媒采访时的讲话,若无法与伊朗达成和平协议,美国将以更大力度恢复军事行动,美方正在\"重新部署\",并已为军舰装载\"最先进的武器\",若谈判失败将\"非常有效地使用\"。特朗普还表示,与伊朗的会谈结果将在24小时内明朗。在社交媒体上,特朗普措辞更为强烈,称伊朗\"没有底牌\",\"除了利用国际航道对全世界进行短暂的敲诈勒索之外,他们手里根本没有任何筹码\",并称伊方\"存活至今唯一的理由就是为了谈判\"。与此同时,美军正持续向中东增兵。据美媒援引飞行追踪数据和美国官员消息,来自美国陆军精锐部队第82空降师的1500至2000名官兵预计将在未来数日内抵达中东,数千名海军官兵和海军陆战队员也正启程前往该地区。\"布什\"号航母编队已于3月底从弗吉尼亚州启程,搭载第11海军陆战队远征部队的\"拳师\"号两栖攻击舰编队则于3月中旬从加州出发,上述舰艇预计需一周以上才能抵达中东。不过,在强硬姿态之外,美方也释放出一定的谈判诚意。据新华社,副总统万斯在启程前表示,美方对此次谈判\"充满期待\",若伊方愿意本着诚意进行谈判,美方\"当然也愿意伸出橄榄枝\"。万斯率领的代表团包括总统特使威特科夫及特朗普女婿库什纳,美方还计划在谈判中提出要求伊方释放被关押的美国公民。据华尔街日报,华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员Michael Singh认为,此次谈判最可能的结果是一项\"最低限度协议\"——伊朗承诺不发展核武器并开放海峡,换取部分制裁松绑和停火延续。这一判断,或许也是当前市场对谈判前景最为务实的预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":2,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551401459344056,"gmtCreate":1775641328444,"gmtModify":1775641553388,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"伊朗提出的十条确实很多可能兑现,但先决条件是美伊之见进行了利益捆绑,如果是这样那么美国当然没有必要再次入侵伊朗,浓缩铀也可以适当放松,对伊朗的制裁可以适当放松,但唯独最后两项美国绝无可能同意,不但不会同意甚至还会继续增兵。#伊朗#以色列#霍尔木兹#","listText":"伊朗提出的十条确实很多可能兑现,但先决条件是美伊之见进行了利益捆绑,如果是这样那么美国当然没有必要再次入侵伊朗,浓缩铀也可以适当放松,对伊朗的制裁可以适当放松,但唯独最后两项美国绝无可能同意,不但不会同意甚至还会继续增兵。#伊朗#以色列#霍尔木兹#","text":"伊朗提出的十条确实很多可能兑现,但先决条件是美伊之见进行了利益捆绑,如果是这样那么美国当然没有必要再次入侵伊朗,浓缩铀也可以适当放松,对伊朗的制裁可以适当放松,但唯独最后两项美国绝无可能同意,不但不会同意甚至还会继续增兵。#伊朗#以色列#霍尔木兹#","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45e14a154adb3ccf80a6492a68cf771","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551401459344056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551393992997016,"gmtCreate":1775639582312,"gmtModify":1775639585117,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"伊朗方面宣称美国将给与赔偿,有没有一种可能:美国确实会给伊朗一笔钱,但不会以赔款方式,而是以入股的方式共同参与管控霍尔木兹海峡呢?","listText":"伊朗方面宣称美国将给与赔偿,有没有一种可能:美国确实会给伊朗一笔钱,但不会以赔款方式,而是以入股的方式共同参与管控霍尔木兹海峡呢?","text":"伊朗方面宣称美国将给与赔偿,有没有一种可能:美国确实会给伊朗一笔钱,但不会以赔款方式,而是以入股的方式共同参与管控霍尔木兹海峡呢?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551393992997016","repostId":"1129309110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129309110","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775620312,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129309110?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-08 11:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普:就伊朗问题已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129309110","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月8日,据法新社报道,特朗普最新接受采访时表示:“美国取得了‘彻底而完全的胜利’,百分之百,毫无疑问。已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架。我们有一项包含15点的协议,其中大部分内容已经达成一致。任何和平协议都将涵盖核材料问题。让我们拭目以待吧。看看它能否达成。”特朗普拒绝透露如果协议破裂,他是否会恢复最初的威胁,即摧毁伊朗的民用发电厂和桥梁。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月8日,据法新社报道,特朗普最新接受采访时表示:“美国取得了‘彻底而完全的胜利’,百分之百,毫无疑问。已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架。我们有一项包含15点的协议,其中大部分内容已经达成一致。任何和平协议都将涵盖核材料问题。让我们拭目以待吧。看看它能否达成。”特朗普拒绝透露如果协议破裂,他是否会恢复最初的威胁,即摧毁伊朗的民用发电厂和桥梁。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普:就伊朗问题已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架</title>\n<style 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11:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月8日,据法新社报道,特朗普最新接受采访时表示:“美国取得了‘彻底而完全的胜利’,百分之百,毫无疑问。已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架。我们有一项包含15点的协议,其中大部分内容已经达成一致。任何和平协议都将涵盖核材料问题。让我们拭目以待吧。看看它能否达成。”特朗普拒绝透露如果协议破裂,他是否会恢复最初的威胁,即摧毁伊朗的民用发电厂和桥梁。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129309110","content_text":"4月8日,据法新社报道,特朗普最新接受采访时表示:“美国取得了‘彻底而完全的胜利’,百分之百,毫无疑问。已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架。我们有一项包含15点的协议,其中大部分内容已经达成一致。任何和平协议都将涵盖核材料问题。让我们拭目以待吧。看看它能否达成。”特朗普拒绝透露如果协议破裂,他是否会恢复最初的威胁,即摧毁伊朗的民用发电厂和桥梁。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551394247951136,"gmtCreate":1775639570045,"gmtModify":1775639572115,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"#伊朗#霍尔木兹海峡##以色列#伊朗方面宣称美国将给与赔偿,有没有一种可能:美国确实会给伊朗一笔钱,但不会以赔款方式,而是以入股的方式共同参与管控霍尔木兹海峡呢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> ","listText":"#伊朗#霍尔木兹海峡##以色列#伊朗方面宣称美国将给与赔偿,有没有一种可能:美国确实会给伊朗一笔钱,但不会以赔款方式,而是以入股的方式共同参与管控霍尔木兹海峡呢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> ","text":"#伊朗#霍尔木兹海峡##以色列#伊朗方面宣称美国将给与赔偿,有没有一种可能:美国确实会给伊朗一笔钱,但不会以赔款方式,而是以入股的方式共同参与管控霍尔木兹海峡呢$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551394247951136","repostId":"1129309110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129309110","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775620312,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129309110?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-08 11:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普:就伊朗问题已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129309110","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月8日,据法新社报道,特朗普最新接受采访时表示:“美国取得了‘彻底而完全的胜利’,百分之百,毫无疑问。已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架。我们有一项包含15点的协议,其中大部分内容已经达成一致。任何和平协议都将涵盖核材料问题。让我们拭目以待吧。看看它能否达成。”特朗普拒绝透露如果协议破裂,他是否会恢复最初的威胁,即摧毁伊朗的民用发电厂和桥梁。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月8日,据法新社报道,特朗普最新接受采访时表示:“美国取得了‘彻底而完全的胜利’,百分之百,毫无疑问。已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架。我们有一项包含15点的协议,其中大部分内容已经达成一致。任何和平协议都将涵盖核材料问题。让我们拭目以待吧。看看它能否达成。”特朗普拒绝透露如果协议破裂,他是否会恢复最初的威胁,即摧毁伊朗的民用发电厂和桥梁。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普:就伊朗问题已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架</title>\n<style 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11:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月8日,据法新社报道,特朗普最新接受采访时表示:“美国取得了‘彻底而完全的胜利’,百分之百,毫无疑问。已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架。我们有一项包含15点的协议,其中大部分内容已经达成一致。任何和平协议都将涵盖核材料问题。让我们拭目以待吧。看看它能否达成。”特朗普拒绝透露如果协议破裂,他是否会恢复最初的威胁,即摧毁伊朗的民用发电厂和桥梁。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129309110","content_text":"4月8日,据法新社报道,特朗普最新接受采访时表示:“美国取得了‘彻底而完全的胜利’,百分之百,毫无疑问。已经存在一个达成长期协议的坚实框架。我们有一项包含15点的协议,其中大部分内容已经达成一致。任何和平协议都将涵盖核材料问题。让我们拭目以待吧。看看它能否达成。”特朗普拒绝透露如果协议破裂,他是否会恢复最初的威胁,即摧毁伊朗的民用发电厂和桥梁。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":550079708809360,"gmtCreate":1775318711976,"gmtModify":1775318714250,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"欧洲跌落","listText":"欧洲跌落","text":"欧洲跌落","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/550079708809360","repostId":"2624690334","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2624690334","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775304801,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2624690334?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-04 20:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"能源价格飙升,报道:欧盟五个成员国呼吁征收暴利税!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624690334","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利五国财长被曝联名致信欧盟委员会,呼吁对能源企业暴利征税。理由或是伊朗战争推高燃油价格,能源企业从中大幅获益。五国在信中表示,获利者应为减轻公众负担\"尽一份力\"。此前法国已单独要求欧盟管控炼油厂定价。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利五国财长被曝联名致信欧盟委员会,呼吁对能源企业暴利征税。理由或是伊朗战争推高燃油价格,能源企业从中大幅获益。五国在信中表示,获利者应为减轻公众负担"尽一份力"。此前法国已单独要求欧盟管控炼油厂定价。</p></blockquote><p>伊朗战争推高油价,欧盟内部开始向能源企业"算账"。</p><p>据路透社4月4日报道,德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙和奥地利五国财长联名致信欧盟委员会,呼吁对能源企业的暴利征税。</p><p>五国在信中写道,采取此类行动将"向那些从战争后果中获利者传递明确信号,要求其为减轻公众负担尽一份力"。</p><h2 id=\"id_895473178\">五国为何联手施压?</h2><p>逻辑很直接:伊朗战争爆发后,国际油价上涨,能源企业利润随之膨胀。与此同时,普通消费者和企业承受着更高的燃油账单。</p><p>暴利税的核心逻辑,类似于"意外之财要分享"——当企业的盈利并非来自自身经营改善,而是源于外部冲突带来的价格红利,政府便有理由介入征税,将部分收益转移用于公共减负。</p><p>五国联名,意味着这一诉求在欧盟内部已具备相当的政治分量,但最终能否推进,仍取决于欧盟委员会的态度及其他成员国的立场。</p><h2 id=\"id_3900909852\">法国此前已率先表态</h2><p>这并非欧盟内部首次出现类似声音。据彭博此前报道,法国已单独要求欧盟采取行动,确保炼油厂不对燃油过度收费。</p><p>法国的诉求与五国联名信方向一致,均指向能源企业在高油价环境下的定价行为。两者叠加,显示欧盟主要经济体正在形成合力,向欧盟委员会施加压力。</p><p>对市场而言,若欧盟层面的暴利税政策推进,欧洲能源企业的盈利预期将面临直接压力。目前政策尚处于呼吁阶段,欧盟委员会尚未作出正式回应。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>能源价格飙升,报道:欧盟五个成员国呼吁征收暴利税!</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n能源价格飙升,报道:欧盟五个成员国呼吁征收暴利税!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-04 20:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利五国财长被曝联名致信欧盟委员会,呼吁对能源企业暴利征税。理由或是伊朗战争推高燃油价格,能源企业从中大幅获益。五国在信中表示,获利者应为减轻公众负担"尽一份力"。此前法国已单独要求欧盟管控炼油厂定价。</p></blockquote><p>伊朗战争推高油价,欧盟内部开始向能源企业"算账"。</p><p>据路透社4月4日报道,德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙和奥地利五国财长联名致信欧盟委员会,呼吁对能源企业的暴利征税。</p><p>五国在信中写道,采取此类行动将"向那些从战争后果中获利者传递明确信号,要求其为减轻公众负担尽一份力"。</p><h2 id=\"id_895473178\">五国为何联手施压?</h2><p>逻辑很直接:伊朗战争爆发后,国际油价上涨,能源企业利润随之膨胀。与此同时,普通消费者和企业承受着更高的燃油账单。</p><p>暴利税的核心逻辑,类似于"意外之财要分享"——当企业的盈利并非来自自身经营改善,而是源于外部冲突带来的价格红利,政府便有理由介入征税,将部分收益转移用于公共减负。</p><p>五国联名,意味着这一诉求在欧盟内部已具备相当的政治分量,但最终能否推进,仍取决于欧盟委员会的态度及其他成员国的立场。</p><h2 id=\"id_3900909852\">法国此前已率先表态</h2><p>这并非欧盟内部首次出现类似声音。据彭博此前报道,法国已单独要求欧盟采取行动,确保炼油厂不对燃油过度收费。</p><p>法国的诉求与五国联名信方向一致,均指向能源企业在高油价环境下的定价行为。两者叠加,显示欧盟主要经济体正在形成合力,向欧盟委员会施加压力。</p><p>对市场而言,若欧盟层面的暴利税政策推进,欧洲能源企业的盈利预期将面临直接压力。目前政策尚处于呼吁阶段,欧盟委员会尚未作出正式回应。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccaf5a00a23e698b11127b5df489f477","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769264","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2624690334","content_text":"德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利五国财长被曝联名致信欧盟委员会,呼吁对能源企业暴利征税。理由或是伊朗战争推高燃油价格,能源企业从中大幅获益。五国在信中表示,获利者应为减轻公众负担\"尽一份力\"。此前法国已单独要求欧盟管控炼油厂定价。伊朗战争推高油价,欧盟内部开始向能源企业\"算账\"。据路透社4月4日报道,德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙和奥地利五国财长联名致信欧盟委员会,呼吁对能源企业的暴利征税。五国在信中写道,采取此类行动将\"向那些从战争后果中获利者传递明确信号,要求其为减轻公众负担尽一份力\"。五国为何联手施压?逻辑很直接:伊朗战争爆发后,国际油价上涨,能源企业利润随之膨胀。与此同时,普通消费者和企业承受着更高的燃油账单。暴利税的核心逻辑,类似于\"意外之财要分享\"——当企业的盈利并非来自自身经营改善,而是源于外部冲突带来的价格红利,政府便有理由介入征税,将部分收益转移用于公共减负。五国联名,意味着这一诉求在欧盟内部已具备相当的政治分量,但最终能否推进,仍取决于欧盟委员会的态度及其他成员国的立场。法国此前已率先表态这并非欧盟内部首次出现类似声音。据彭博此前报道,法国已单独要求欧盟采取行动,确保炼油厂不对燃油过度收费。法国的诉求与五国联名信方向一致,均指向能源企业在高油价环境下的定价行为。两者叠加,显示欧盟主要经济体正在形成合力,向欧盟委员会施加压力。对市场而言,若欧盟层面的暴利税政策推进,欧洲能源企业的盈利预期将面临直接压力。目前政策尚处于呼吁阶段,欧盟委员会尚未作出正式回应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FESXmain":1.5,"FSXEmain":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":549681057788616,"gmtCreate":1775221308644,"gmtModify":1775221311086,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"归根结底还是科技引领和科技跟随的差别,引领者掌握定价权,而跟随着丧失定价权。","listText":"归根结底还是科技引领和科技跟随的差别,引领者掌握定价权,而跟随着丧失定价权。","text":"归根结底还是科技引领和科技跟随的差别,引领者掌握定价权,而跟随着丧失定价权。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549681057788616","repostId":"2624309606","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2624309606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1775197524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2624309606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-03 14:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"这个财报季,财报成了最没用的东西","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624309606","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"但这个财报季,它反倒制造了更多的困惑。不止这两家公司,在财报发布后,大量大厂的股价走势和业绩完全偏离。但在这个财报季,股东的价值似乎不是靠他的努力能实现的。但在财报发布后,泡泡玛特两个交易日下跌了近30%。在连续两个季度很一般的财报后,终于,在2025年第二季度,拼多多的收入和利润均超出市场预期,交出了一份漂亮的财报。","content":"<html><body><blockquote><p>作者|略大参考 杨知潮</p></blockquote><p>财报和业绩会的作用是与公众沟通,向公众解惑。但这个财报季,它反倒制造了更多的困惑。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>业绩非常优秀,为何股价大跌10%?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>业绩只能算中规中矩,凭什么就能一度大涨10%?</p><p>不止这两家公司,在财报发布后,大量大厂的股价走势和业绩完全偏离。财报季,顾名思义是看财报的,但这个财报季,市场似乎压根不看财报。</p><p>01 腾讯和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手</a>:不搞AI嫌没有前景,搞AI嫌费钱</p><p>腾讯很可能是国内最看重股东利益的大厂,Pony经常强调,希望通过努力、创新,从而为腾讯股东带来价值。</p><p>但在这个财报季,股东的价值似乎不是靠他的努力能实现的。</p><p>毕竟腾讯在财报发布后的大跌,看起来根本不是财报的事:腾讯四季度收入同比增长13%、毛利同比增长19%。国内常青树游戏稳定,国际游戏大增。韧性足,增速快,盈利质量高。</p><p>一个成熟巨头,这样的财报显然已经超出优秀线了。</p><p>但市场似乎压根不看财报。腾讯财报发布后股价大跌超过6%,至今已经持续下跌约10%。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630031331600.png\" width=\"666\"/></p><p>图注:腾讯财报发布后,股价一路走低。</p><p>腾讯的财报有什么瑕疵呢?硬要找也是找得到的。</p><p>其中最大的瑕疵无疑是资本开支:在业绩会上,腾讯宣布将重投AI。管理层透露:今年在AI新产品上,腾讯的投入金额至少翻倍。地主家也没有余粮,腾讯的钱也不是无限的,所以Martin表示:“如果腾讯有足够的资源去支持AI发展的话,资本开销能达到公司预期,可能会适当减少回购。”</p><p>过去三年,市场经常质疑腾讯对AI过于保守,投入不足,创新缓慢。眼下,腾讯加大了投入,却又迎来股价下滑。</p><p>如果腾讯这只股票自己会说话,它一定很无语:不搞AI,市场觉得你保守,搞AI,市场嫌你乱花钱。但投入AI怎么可能不花钱?</p><p>快手也许也有相同的感觉。</p><p>它的财报不算完美,但还是超出了市场的预期,收入增速达到了12.5%,净利润同比增长16.5%,均创下新高。</p><p>AI概念,快手也不缺。程一笑透露:截至今年1月,可灵AI的年化收入运行率(ARR)已超过3亿美元。公司对可灵AI在2026年实现收入同比翻倍以上增长保持较强信心。</p><p>但第二个交易日,快手股价直接暴跌约14%。</p><p>如果一定要找点问题出来,它的直播收入出现下滑,用户数增长见顶,且日后不再公布GMV。但这是2026年,直播行业整体早就衰退了,互联网用户早就见顶了,电商行业早就集体隐藏GMV了。</p><p>这些理由,对14%的大跌来说足够充分吗?</p><p>更大的理由或许不在财报,而在业绩会,管理层透露:2026年计划投入260亿元资本开支用于AI算力建设。</p><p>腾讯和拼多多这样的大厂,因为对AI的投入相对保守,在很长时间里受到质疑。但当大厂真正投入AI后,市场又担心他们的现金流。</p><p>市场似乎在给大厂一道无解题:必须全力搞AI,但又不能大量花钱。</p><p>02 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>:符合预期,暴跌30%</p><p>一个极其正常的财报,却能带来接近30%的暴跌,即便在这个“乱跌”的财报季,也是一种奇观。</p><p>如果一定要为泡泡玛特的暴跌找个理由的话,答案可能不是空头,而是极端的多头。</p><p>从今年年初开始,全世界就有非常多的钱涌入做空泡泡玛特。人们认为这是一个郁金香的存在,会很快过气。</p><p>做空资金最多的时候,占成交的比例接近40%,多个海外机构连续发布做空报告,比如伯恩斯坦分析师认为这家企业全靠LABUBU一个IP,别的IP都是“借光”,消费者看LABUBU没货了,才会退而求其次购买。</p><p>有机构认为,这家公司的业绩高点就在2025年Q3,2026年甚至可能会出现同比下滑。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630029160700.jpg\" width=\"1080\"/></p><p>图注:2026年泡泡玛特,最不缺的就是空头。</p><p>他们的做空成功了吗?很长时间都是失败的。泡泡玛特股价在今年一度超过250港币,很多空头亏的血本无归。</p><p>但空头处心积虑,有时候不如多头太高的预期。</p><p>3月25日发布的财报显示,泡泡玛特的收入为371.2亿人民币,调整后净利润大约为130亿人民币。</p><p>这个业绩非常中规中矩,超过10家券商的预期本来就在这个数字范围内,不算好也不坏。</p><p>但在财报发布后,泡泡玛特两个交易日下跌了近30%。</p><p>真正的杀手,可能不是空头,而是多头:比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>,他们预测泡泡玛特的净利润达到140亿人民币。看似只多了几亿元,但泡泡玛特前三季度业绩都已发布,10亿的偏差其实全“挤”在四季度,是非常大的高估。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的净利润预计倒还好,但目标价给到了惊人的384.5港元。至于普通投资者中,拥有着不切实际的高估者,更是数不胜数。</p><p>低预期没有搞崩泡泡玛特,高预期却做到了,在这些看多的资金眼中,这是一份不合格的财报。</p><p>3月25日当天,摩根大通卖出了173万股泡泡玛特,摩根士丹利卖出了133万股,构成了当日下跌的巨大推手。</p><p>——吹的时候最厉害,跑得最快。这让人想起饭圈所说的:“极端的粉丝是最大的黑子。”</p><p>业绩会上,王宁又为下跌“加了把火”。他对未来业绩指引的回答充满严谨:努力做到不低于20%的增长。</p><p>这是王宁一贯的风格,他对未来的业绩指引向来保守,2024年时,他的指引还是同比增长50%,但第二年,泡泡玛特完成了这个目标两倍的成绩。</p><p>这种对市场预期的管理,也是泡泡玛特屡屡超出预期的关键。</p><p>但讲话要看语境,在这个恐慌的市场背景下,这句话起到了相反的作用:泡泡玛特的跌幅扩大,从10%逼近20%。</p><p>相比于财报发布前的高点,泡泡玛特的市值已经接近腰斩,尽管泡泡玛特没什么变化——几个月前大量机构就已经预计它的利润就是这些,它的护城河、战略方向也都没有变化,但它的市值还是少了快一半。</p><p>03 拼多多和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>:预期管理比财报还重要?</p><p>相比之下,拼多多的“预期管理”能力显得更强一些。</p><p>泡泡玛特的业绩会上,多位管理层穿着西服打着领带,非常正式。而拼多多的业绩会只有音频,并且高管的话筒还“炸麦”了。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630032657200.png\" width=\"805\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630021815800.png\" width=\"1027\"/></p><p>管理层的一大段发言后,听众似乎只能听见电流声,以及隐约的三个字:“拼多多”,似乎在说这个麦克是从拼多多买的。</p><p>但对拼多多股东来说,管理层的麦炸了也许是个“利好”。</p><p>因为过去几个季度,这家公司的管理层的发言一直比较“利空”:拼多多在2024年8月份的二季度业绩会堪称中国互联网财报季的里程碑,高管在业绩会上明确表示拼多多未来几年不会分红。</p><p>这一发言让拼多多股价一度大跌28%。</p><p>此后,拼多多的策略开始调整,牺牲短期利润的同时,将大量真金白银补贴给消费者和商家,营销费用越来越高,货币化率越来越低,最终利润一路走低。</p><p>在连续两个季度很一般的财报后,终于,在2025年第二季度,拼多多的收入和利润均超出市场预期,交出了一份漂亮的财报。股价在盘前一度上涨。</p><p>但管理层在业绩会上再次表示:不认为该季度的利润可以持续。这一句话,让拼多多盘前上涨的股价转跌。</p><p>对拼多多的股东来说,管理层不说话就是利好。但这事也有两面性:最有杀伤力的不是甜言蜜语,而是预期管理。</p><p>一个人如果每天都骂你,有一天不骂,你就会非常感恩。这就是拼多多这份财报的背景:大家的预期都很低。于是,当拼多多净利润只下滑了11%时,市场并不悲观,反倒是为经营利润8%的增长感到欣喜。</p><p>管理层在业绩会的发言也显得十分和蔼,比如在被问道海外风险时,管理层回答道:</p><p>当前的监管整治为我们进入下一个阶段的成长奠定了好的基础,同时也会为我们在这种快速变化的国际政治政策环境下的这种模式迭代指明方向。</p><p>看似套路化,但也许只有当过拼多多的股东,才明白这种发言背后的“温柔”。</p><p>要挑刺,拼多多财报也有很多瑕疵:腾讯和快手对AI大幅度投入,拼多多也有一个超过百亿的重资产项目:新拼姆。看名字就知道,这是一个类似山姆或者Costco的自营零售生意。</p><p>拼多多的确没有AI基础设施的大量建设,但这种自营的零售商非常消耗现金,利润率也不如拼多多APP的平台模式。</p><p>快手存在用户增长的放缓,但拼多多的广告营销收入增速同样放缓。交易型收入大涨背后,是海外业务、买菜等利润率偏低的业务占比提升。</p><p>或许市场对拼多多的期望更少?</p><p>市场期望更少的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>,早在2月13日,美团就发布了盈利预警,盈利数据基本是明牌。既然基本明牌,那就没什么利好和利空。在这个大家集体暴跌的财报季,美团上涨了10%左右,财报发布后股价基本保持稳定——大家都暴跌,不跌就算涨了。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630032374400.png\" width=\"735\"/></p><p>最终,业绩向好的腾讯、快手发布财报后大跌,利润不增长的拼多多和美团却能表现坚挺,实在是不符合常规的逻辑。</p><p>而如果一定要为这个财报季找一个主线逻辑的话,最合适的答案可能是:没有逻辑。毕竟在这个冲突不断,AI的威胁带来人心惶惶的时期,情绪的力量似乎比逻辑更强大。 </p></body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>这个财报季,财报成了最没用的东西</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n这个财报季,财报成了最没用的东西\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-03 14:25 北京时间 <a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1774607330672315522><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者|略大参考 杨知潮财报和业绩会的作用是与公众沟通,向公众解惑。但这个财报季,它反倒制造了更多的困惑。腾讯业绩非常优秀,为何股价大跌10%?拼多多业绩只能算中规中矩,凭什么就能一度大涨10%?不止这两家公司,在财报发布后,大量大厂的股价走势和业绩完全偏离。财报季,顾名思义是看财报的,但这个财报季,市场似乎压根不看财报。01 腾讯和快手:不搞AI嫌没有前景,搞AI嫌费钱腾讯很可能是国内最看重股东...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1774607330672315522\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81024":"快手-WR","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1568876335.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU0823040885.USD":"东方汇理新兴市场焦点股票基金","IE00BGV7N243.SGD":"FSSA Global Emerging Markets Focus I Acc SGD","LU1568876251.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0588545490.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income AS SGD","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU0229945570.USD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1675838814.USD":"AB SICAV I - EMERGING MARKETS LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) 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腾讯和快手:不搞AI嫌没有前景,搞AI嫌费钱腾讯很可能是国内最看重股东利益的大厂,Pony经常强调,希望通过努力、创新,从而为腾讯股东带来价值。但在这个财报季,股东的价值似乎不是靠他的努力能实现的。毕竟腾讯在财报发布后的大跌,看起来根本不是财报的事:腾讯四季度收入同比增长13%、毛利同比增长19%。国内常青树游戏稳定,国际游戏大增。韧性足,增速快,盈利质量高。一个成熟巨头,这样的财报显然已经超出优秀线了。但市场似乎压根不看财报。腾讯财报发布后股价大跌超过6%,至今已经持续下跌约10%。图注:腾讯财报发布后,股价一路走低。腾讯的财报有什么瑕疵呢?硬要找也是找得到的。其中最大的瑕疵无疑是资本开支:在业绩会上,腾讯宣布将重投AI。管理层透露:今年在AI新产品上,腾讯的投入金额至少翻倍。地主家也没有余粮,腾讯的钱也不是无限的,所以Martin表示:“如果腾讯有足够的资源去支持AI发展的话,资本开销能达到公司预期,可能会适当减少回购。”过去三年,市场经常质疑腾讯对AI过于保守,投入不足,创新缓慢。眼下,腾讯加大了投入,却又迎来股价下滑。如果腾讯这只股票自己会说话,它一定很无语:不搞AI,市场觉得你保守,搞AI,市场嫌你乱花钱。但投入AI怎么可能不花钱?快手也许也有相同的感觉。它的财报不算完美,但还是超出了市场的预期,收入增速达到了12.5%,净利润同比增长16.5%,均创下新高。AI概念,快手也不缺。程一笑透露:截至今年1月,可灵AI的年化收入运行率(ARR)已超过3亿美元。公司对可灵AI在2026年实现收入同比翻倍以上增长保持较强信心。但第二个交易日,快手股价直接暴跌约14%。如果一定要找点问题出来,它的直播收入出现下滑,用户数增长见顶,且日后不再公布GMV。但这是2026年,直播行业整体早就衰退了,互联网用户早就见顶了,电商行业早就集体隐藏GMV了。这些理由,对14%的大跌来说足够充分吗?更大的理由或许不在财报,而在业绩会,管理层透露:2026年计划投入260亿元资本开支用于AI算力建设。腾讯和拼多多这样的大厂,因为对AI的投入相对保守,在很长时间里受到质疑。但当大厂真正投入AI后,市场又担心他们的现金流。市场似乎在给大厂一道无解题:必须全力搞AI,但又不能大量花钱。02 泡泡玛特:符合预期,暴跌30%一个极其正常的财报,却能带来接近30%的暴跌,即便在这个“乱跌”的财报季,也是一种奇观。如果一定要为泡泡玛特的暴跌找个理由的话,答案可能不是空头,而是极端的多头。从今年年初开始,全世界就有非常多的钱涌入做空泡泡玛特。人们认为这是一个郁金香的存在,会很快过气。做空资金最多的时候,占成交的比例接近40%,多个海外机构连续发布做空报告,比如伯恩斯坦分析师认为这家企业全靠LABUBU一个IP,别的IP都是“借光”,消费者看LABUBU没货了,才会退而求其次购买。有机构认为,这家公司的业绩高点就在2025年Q3,2026年甚至可能会出现同比下滑。图注:2026年泡泡玛特,最不缺的就是空头。他们的做空成功了吗?很长时间都是失败的。泡泡玛特股价在今年一度超过250港币,很多空头亏的血本无归。但空头处心积虑,有时候不如多头太高的预期。3月25日发布的财报显示,泡泡玛特的收入为371.2亿人民币,调整后净利润大约为130亿人民币。这个业绩非常中规中矩,超过10家券商的预期本来就在这个数字范围内,不算好也不坏。但在财报发布后,泡泡玛特两个交易日下跌了近30%。真正的杀手,可能不是空头,而是多头:比如摩根大通,他们预测泡泡玛特的净利润达到140亿人民币。看似只多了几亿元,但泡泡玛特前三季度业绩都已发布,10亿的偏差其实全“挤”在四季度,是非常大的高估。摩根士丹利的净利润预计倒还好,但目标价给到了惊人的384.5港元。至于普通投资者中,拥有着不切实际的高估者,更是数不胜数。低预期没有搞崩泡泡玛特,高预期却做到了,在这些看多的资金眼中,这是一份不合格的财报。3月25日当天,摩根大通卖出了173万股泡泡玛特,摩根士丹利卖出了133万股,构成了当日下跌的巨大推手。——吹的时候最厉害,跑得最快。这让人想起饭圈所说的:“极端的粉丝是最大的黑子。”业绩会上,王宁又为下跌“加了把火”。他对未来业绩指引的回答充满严谨:努力做到不低于20%的增长。这是王宁一贯的风格,他对未来的业绩指引向来保守,2024年时,他的指引还是同比增长50%,但第二年,泡泡玛特完成了这个目标两倍的成绩。这种对市场预期的管理,也是泡泡玛特屡屡超出预期的关键。但讲话要看语境,在这个恐慌的市场背景下,这句话起到了相反的作用:泡泡玛特的跌幅扩大,从10%逼近20%。相比于财报发布前的高点,泡泡玛特的市值已经接近腰斩,尽管泡泡玛特没什么变化——几个月前大量机构就已经预计它的利润就是这些,它的护城河、战略方向也都没有变化,但它的市值还是少了快一半。03 拼多多和美团:预期管理比财报还重要?相比之下,拼多多的“预期管理”能力显得更强一些。泡泡玛特的业绩会上,多位管理层穿着西服打着领带,非常正式。而拼多多的业绩会只有音频,并且高管的话筒还“炸麦”了。管理层的一大段发言后,听众似乎只能听见电流声,以及隐约的三个字:“拼多多”,似乎在说这个麦克是从拼多多买的。但对拼多多股东来说,管理层的麦炸了也许是个“利好”。因为过去几个季度,这家公司的管理层的发言一直比较“利空”:拼多多在2024年8月份的二季度业绩会堪称中国互联网财报季的里程碑,高管在业绩会上明确表示拼多多未来几年不会分红。这一发言让拼多多股价一度大跌28%。此后,拼多多的策略开始调整,牺牲短期利润的同时,将大量真金白银补贴给消费者和商家,营销费用越来越高,货币化率越来越低,最终利润一路走低。在连续两个季度很一般的财报后,终于,在2025年第二季度,拼多多的收入和利润均超出市场预期,交出了一份漂亮的财报。股价在盘前一度上涨。但管理层在业绩会上再次表示:不认为该季度的利润可以持续。这一句话,让拼多多盘前上涨的股价转跌。对拼多多的股东来说,管理层不说话就是利好。但这事也有两面性:最有杀伤力的不是甜言蜜语,而是预期管理。一个人如果每天都骂你,有一天不骂,你就会非常感恩。这就是拼多多这份财报的背景:大家的预期都很低。于是,当拼多多净利润只下滑了11%时,市场并不悲观,反倒是为经营利润8%的增长感到欣喜。管理层在业绩会的发言也显得十分和蔼,比如在被问道海外风险时,管理层回答道:当前的监管整治为我们进入下一个阶段的成长奠定了好的基础,同时也会为我们在这种快速变化的国际政治政策环境下的这种模式迭代指明方向。看似套路化,但也许只有当过拼多多的股东,才明白这种发言背后的“温柔”。要挑刺,拼多多财报也有很多瑕疵:腾讯和快手对AI大幅度投入,拼多多也有一个超过百亿的重资产项目:新拼姆。看名字就知道,这是一个类似山姆或者Costco的自营零售生意。拼多多的确没有AI基础设施的大量建设,但这种自营的零售商非常消耗现金,利润率也不如拼多多APP的平台模式。快手存在用户增长的放缓,但拼多多的广告营销收入增速同样放缓。交易型收入大涨背后,是海外业务、买菜等利润率偏低的业务占比提升。或许市场对拼多多的期望更少?市场期望更少的是美团,早在2月13日,美团就发布了盈利预警,盈利数据基本是明牌。既然基本明牌,那就没什么利好和利空。在这个大家集体暴跌的财报季,美团上涨了10%左右,财报发布后股价基本保持稳定——大家都暴跌,不跌就算涨了。最终,业绩向好的腾讯、快手发布财报后大跌,利润不增长的拼多多和美团却能表现坚挺,实在是不符合常规的逻辑。而如果一定要为这个财报季找一个主线逻辑的话,最合适的答案可能是:没有逻辑。毕竟在这个冲突不断,AI的威胁带来人心惶惶的时期,情绪的力量似乎比逻辑更强大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81024":0.6,"00700":1.95,"KSTmain":0.6,"01024":1.88,"PDD":1.91,"TCHmain":0.6,"PDDL":0.6,"AIYY":0.6,"KPDD":0.6,"TCEHY":1.95,"09992":1.94,"03690":1.85,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"PMRTY":1.94,"MPNGY":1.85}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":547228526760192,"gmtCreate":1774624194631,"gmtModify":1774624196482,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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要看做了什么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546637790061592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546307464172536,"gmtCreate":1774385209076,"gmtModify":1774385211997,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"达利欧既是投资家也是大学者,以忘我的精神为真知赋能,显而易见达利欧是个强者,而拥有达利欧这些人也使美国在衰败的路上要慢的多。","listText":"达利欧既是投资家也是大学者,以忘我的精神为真知赋能,显而易见达利欧是个强者,而拥有达利欧这些人也使美国在衰败的路上要慢的多。","text":"达利欧既是投资家也是大学者,以忘我的精神为真知赋能,显而易见达利欧是个强者,而拥有达利欧这些人也使美国在衰败的路上要慢的多。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546307464172536","repostId":"2621938400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2621938400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1774363555,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2621938400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-24 22:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“美国例外主义”坍塌?拉扎德预警美元神话破裂,达利欧预言霍尔木兹决战重塑格局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621938400","media":"智通财经","summary":"“我认为我们回头重审2025年市场格局时,会一致认为那就是美国市场例外主义走向终结的正式开端,”他总结道。传奇投资人、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在个人专栏中警告称,美国和伊朗当前在霍尔木兹海峡的争夺将是一场“终极决战”——它不仅会改变石油价格,还会改变这个世界。达利欧表示,在苏伊士运河危机之后,英国的全球影响力迅速衰落。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉,来自国际资管巨头拉扎德的资深市场策略师罗恩·坦普尔(Ron Temple)表示,2025年就已经标志着“美国市场例外主义”论调走向终结的正式开端;坦普尔表示,随着全球投资者重新评估美国资产,美元持续且长期走弱以及美债面临国际资金持续抛售导致收益率曲线变陡都将是极大概率里程碑事件。坦普尔关于投资策略的未来展望往往都能在金融市场掀起热议,他曾经精准预测2024年日本央行加息终结负利率时机,在2025年成功预判新兴市场股市大幅跑赢美国以及发达市场股市。</p><p>坦普尔在周二接受媒体采访时警告称,投资者们应考虑大幅减少对美国股票资产的配置规模/实际敞口,转而增配那些此前跌幅更深的股票市场,例如日本股市以及一些经济韧性十足的新兴市场的股票资产。</p><p>过去十多年,“美国例外论”席卷全球,美国市场的投资者们长期享受到了全球最佳回报,但是自2025年以来“美国例外论”可谓出现重大裂痕,特朗普政府重磅发起或拟推行的一系列激进的对外加征关税贸易政策以及频繁引发地缘政治冲突局势,令越来越多投资者担忧美国经济陷入“滞胀”甚至“深度衰退”风险,这也是2025年以来美债资产持续走弱的核心逻辑。</p><p>坦普尔还强调,债券市场具有至关重要的意义,并指出美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾反复表示,债券市场,尤其是10年期美债收益率轨迹是本届美国政府的首要关注点。坦普尔解释道:“美国债券市场最终确实会成为那种必须重点关注的关键市场,因为更高债券收益率带来的影响会向整个经济以及所有其他资产市场迅速传导。”</p><p>这位策略师指出,自2月下旬以来,短期美国国债收益率大幅上升,其中美国两年期国债收益率(US2Y)足足上升了50个基点,英国收益率则飙升了近100个基点。</p><p>他指出,市场此前一直在预期降息,但这种预期如今已经被市场彻底排除,因此发达市场的收益率曲线都趋于平坦化。</p><p>展望未来美债市场,坦普尔预计,由于财政压力不断上升,收益率曲线将变得更陡,这些压力包括美国以及更多北约成员国更高的国防支出,中东地区可能愈发升级的国防军工开支,以及美国政府持续存在的高昂财政赤字与日益庞大的利息支出。“按我个人的预期,美国未来十年的财政赤字每年都将达到GDP的6.5%到8%,”他强调,并补充称,这最终将对股票市场构成长期负面催化因素。</p><p>坦普尔还对美元避险地位的削弱表达了浓厚担忧情绪。尽管这种长期以来避险属性货币在近期愈发紧张的全球地缘政治紧张局势中持续上涨,但其涨幅已经开始消退。“我认为我们回头重审2025年市场格局时,会一致认为那就是美国市场例外主义走向终结的正式开端,”他总结道。</p><p>谈到能源价格时,坦普尔指出,汽油期货几乎已经翻倍,从年初每加仑仅仅1.70美元大幅升至目前大约3美元,这在美国中期选举前带来了重大的政治压力。</p><p>他表示,本届美国政府清楚自己有能力影响市场,并可能正在利用这种杠杆驱动力来缓解美国经济压力;不过他也警告称,市场对当前紧张地缘政治局势能够多快得到全面解决,以及霍尔木兹海峡多久能够重启与霍尔木兹海峡最终控制权预期可能“过于乐观”。</p><p><strong>达利欧:霍尔木兹海峡终极决战,将决定全球权力格局</strong></p><p>伊朗军队事实上已将霍尔木兹海峡“准封锁”,意味着全球约20%能源流动全面受阻,并伴随油轮攻击与航运中断,国际能源署(IEA)近日研究报告显示,2月底美国、以色列打击伊朗的军事行动,引发了全球石油市场历史上最大规模的供应中断;与此同时,美国政府正在考虑通过军事手段(包括潜在地面或准地面控制哈尔克岛)恢复航运通道并彻底掌控霍尔木兹海峡。</p><p>布伦特原油已经持续徘徊并且愈发企稳在每桶110美元附近,已不再是短暂的狂野飙升——意味着高油价可能是一个持续性的重大威胁,投资者、央行政策制定者以及企业领袖们都不得不正视这一现实。据悉,哈尔克岛是伊朗最大原油出口基地,伊朗90%的原油从这里出口。</p><p>过去一个月,金融市场一直在艰难消化这场地缘政治战争及其引发的能源供应危机冲击带来的一系列后果。尤其是市场滞胀风险急剧上升,加息预期不断被前置,股市和债市同步暴跌。美元重新确立了其避险地位,而股票市场的交易员们则在国防军工股、可再生能源以及马来西亚能源资产等领域寻找有选择性的机会。</p><p>周一,亚洲股市可谓首当其冲遭遇重挫,MSCI<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>指数跌幅超过3%,并正迈向进入技术性回调区间。全球债券市场同样因愈发高企油价之下的滞胀预期升级而大幅下跌,而在通胀与滞胀担忧不断升温之际,黄金已抹去今年以来逾半数涨幅。欧洲股市也同样走向显著回调,但是在特朗普已指示暂停对伊朗发电厂和能源基础设施的一切军事打击为期五天之后,欧洲与北美股指周一集体大涨,WTI与布伦特原油价格跌幅扩大。</p><p>传奇投资人、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在个人专栏中警告称,美国和伊朗当前在霍尔木兹海峡的争夺将是一场“终极决战”——它不仅会改变石油价格,还会改变这个世界。达利欧表示,虽然不断有人谈论通过达成一份协议来结束这场战争,但美国和伊朗可能都知道,任何和平协议都无法解决这场战争,因为协议毫无价值。“接下来无论发生什么——无论是让霍尔木兹海峡继续留在伊朗手中,还是美国夺取控制权——都可能是冲突中最糟糕的某个阶段。这场最终决战将彻底决出胜负,而这场决战很可能规模巨大。”</p><p>达利欧表示,在苏伊士运河危机之后,英国的全球影响力迅速衰落。类似的情形也曾出现在荷兰<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00776\">帝国</a>和西班牙帝国的衰落过程中:当一个主导强国在关键<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00536\">贸易通</a>道的争夺中显露出无法维持秩序的能力时,全球资本、盟友以及政治力量往往会迅速重新站队。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“美国例外主义”坍塌?拉扎德预警美元神话破裂,达利欧预言霍尔木兹决战重塑格局</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“美国例外主义”坍塌?拉扎德预警美元神话破裂,达利欧预言霍尔木兹决战重塑格局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-24 22:45 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1418323.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,来自国际资管巨头拉扎德的资深市场策略师罗恩·坦普尔(Ron Temple)表示,2025年就已经标志着“美国市场例外主义”论调走向终结的正式开端;坦普尔表示,随着全球投资者重新评估美国资产,美元持续且长期走弱以及美债面临国际资金持续抛售导致收益率曲线变陡都将是极大概率里程碑事件。坦普尔关于投资策略的未来展望往往都能在金融市场掀起热议,他曾经精准预测2024年日本央行加息终结负...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1418323.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadcfb88697d09bb90cb85e829df2277","relate_stocks":{"BK4129":"建筑与工程","EEM":"新兴市场ETF-iShares MSCI","IEA":"Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1418323.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2621938400","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,来自国际资管巨头拉扎德的资深市场策略师罗恩·坦普尔(Ron Temple)表示,2025年就已经标志着“美国市场例外主义”论调走向终结的正式开端;坦普尔表示,随着全球投资者重新评估美国资产,美元持续且长期走弱以及美债面临国际资金持续抛售导致收益率曲线变陡都将是极大概率里程碑事件。坦普尔关于投资策略的未来展望往往都能在金融市场掀起热议,他曾经精准预测2024年日本央行加息终结负利率时机,在2025年成功预判新兴市场股市大幅跑赢美国以及发达市场股市。坦普尔在周二接受媒体采访时警告称,投资者们应考虑大幅减少对美国股票资产的配置规模/实际敞口,转而增配那些此前跌幅更深的股票市场,例如日本股市以及一些经济韧性十足的新兴市场的股票资产。过去十多年,“美国例外论”席卷全球,美国市场的投资者们长期享受到了全球最佳回报,但是自2025年以来“美国例外论”可谓出现重大裂痕,特朗普政府重磅发起或拟推行的一系列激进的对外加征关税贸易政策以及频繁引发地缘政治冲突局势,令越来越多投资者担忧美国经济陷入“滞胀”甚至“深度衰退”风险,这也是2025年以来美债资产持续走弱的核心逻辑。坦普尔还强调,债券市场具有至关重要的意义,并指出美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾反复表示,债券市场,尤其是10年期美债收益率轨迹是本届美国政府的首要关注点。坦普尔解释道:“美国债券市场最终确实会成为那种必须重点关注的关键市场,因为更高债券收益率带来的影响会向整个经济以及所有其他资产市场迅速传导。”这位策略师指出,自2月下旬以来,短期美国国债收益率大幅上升,其中美国两年期国债收益率(US2Y)足足上升了50个基点,英国收益率则飙升了近100个基点。他指出,市场此前一直在预期降息,但这种预期如今已经被市场彻底排除,因此发达市场的收益率曲线都趋于平坦化。展望未来美债市场,坦普尔预计,由于财政压力不断上升,收益率曲线将变得更陡,这些压力包括美国以及更多北约成员国更高的国防支出,中东地区可能愈发升级的国防军工开支,以及美国政府持续存在的高昂财政赤字与日益庞大的利息支出。“按我个人的预期,美国未来十年的财政赤字每年都将达到GDP的6.5%到8%,”他强调,并补充称,这最终将对股票市场构成长期负面催化因素。坦普尔还对美元避险地位的削弱表达了浓厚担忧情绪。尽管这种长期以来避险属性货币在近期愈发紧张的全球地缘政治紧张局势中持续上涨,但其涨幅已经开始消退。“我认为我们回头重审2025年市场格局时,会一致认为那就是美国市场例外主义走向终结的正式开端,”他总结道。谈到能源价格时,坦普尔指出,汽油期货几乎已经翻倍,从年初每加仑仅仅1.70美元大幅升至目前大约3美元,这在美国中期选举前带来了重大的政治压力。他表示,本届美国政府清楚自己有能力影响市场,并可能正在利用这种杠杆驱动力来缓解美国经济压力;不过他也警告称,市场对当前紧张地缘政治局势能够多快得到全面解决,以及霍尔木兹海峡多久能够重启与霍尔木兹海峡最终控制权预期可能“过于乐观”。达利欧:霍尔木兹海峡终极决战,将决定全球权力格局伊朗军队事实上已将霍尔木兹海峡“准封锁”,意味着全球约20%能源流动全面受阻,并伴随油轮攻击与航运中断,国际能源署(IEA)近日研究报告显示,2月底美国、以色列打击伊朗的军事行动,引发了全球石油市场历史上最大规模的供应中断;与此同时,美国政府正在考虑通过军事手段(包括潜在地面或准地面控制哈尔克岛)恢复航运通道并彻底掌控霍尔木兹海峡。布伦特原油已经持续徘徊并且愈发企稳在每桶110美元附近,已不再是短暂的狂野飙升——意味着高油价可能是一个持续性的重大威胁,投资者、央行政策制定者以及企业领袖们都不得不正视这一现实。据悉,哈尔克岛是伊朗最大原油出口基地,伊朗90%的原油从这里出口。过去一个月,金融市场一直在艰难消化这场地缘政治战争及其引发的能源供应危机冲击带来的一系列后果。尤其是市场滞胀风险急剧上升,加息预期不断被前置,股市和债市同步暴跌。美元重新确立了其避险地位,而股票市场的交易员们则在国防军工股、可再生能源以及马来西亚能源资产等领域寻找有选择性的机会。周一,亚洲股市可谓首当其冲遭遇重挫,MSCI亚太指数跌幅超过3%,并正迈向进入技术性回调区间。全球债券市场同样因愈发高企油价之下的滞胀预期升级而大幅下跌,而在通胀与滞胀担忧不断升温之际,黄金已抹去今年以来逾半数涨幅。欧洲股市也同样走向显著回调,但是在特朗普已指示暂停对伊朗发电厂和能源基础设施的一切军事打击为期五天之后,欧洲与北美股指周一集体大涨,WTI与布伦特原油价格跌幅扩大。传奇投资人、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在个人专栏中警告称,美国和伊朗当前在霍尔木兹海峡的争夺将是一场“终极决战”——它不仅会改变石油价格,还会改变这个世界。达利欧表示,虽然不断有人谈论通过达成一份协议来结束这场战争,但美国和伊朗可能都知道,任何和平协议都无法解决这场战争,因为协议毫无价值。“接下来无论发生什么——无论是让霍尔木兹海峡继续留在伊朗手中,还是美国夺取控制权——都可能是冲突中最糟糕的某个阶段。这场最终决战将彻底决出胜负,而这场决战很可能规模巨大。”达利欧表示,在苏伊士运河危机之后,英国的全球影响力迅速衰落。类似的情形也曾出现在荷兰帝国和西班牙帝国的衰落过程中:当一个主导强国在关键贸易通道的争夺中显露出无法维持秩序的能力时,全球资本、盟友以及政治力量往往会迅速重新站队。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EEM":1.1,"IEA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":545967632798136,"gmtCreate":1774302235319,"gmtModify":1774302237838,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"虚空夺牌","listText":"虚空夺牌","text":"虚空夺牌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545967632798136","repostId":"1110644214","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110644214","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1774274741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110644214?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-23 22:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普:伊朗已经同意不发展核武器,霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110644214","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月23日,美国总统特朗普:如果计划见效,霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放。霍尔木兹海峡将由多方共同管控。霍尔木兹海峡可能由我和阿亚图拉共同控制。一旦达成协议,油价就会直线下跌。我们目前已经与伊朗达成了15项共识,包括伊朗不会拥有核武器。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月23日,美国总统特朗普:如果计划见效,霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放。霍尔木兹海峡将由多方共同管控。霍尔木兹海峡可能由我和阿亚图拉共同控制。一旦达成协议,油价就会直线下跌。我们目前已经与伊朗达成了15项共识,包括伊朗不会拥有核武器。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普:伊朗已经同意不发展核武器,霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放</title>\n<style 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22:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月23日,美国总统特朗普:如果计划见效,霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放。霍尔木兹海峡将由多方共同管控。霍尔木兹海峡可能由我和阿亚图拉共同控制。一旦达成协议,油价就会直线下跌。我们目前已经与伊朗达成了15项共识,包括伊朗不会拥有核武器。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110644214","content_text":"3月23日,美国总统特朗普:如果计划见效,霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放。霍尔木兹海峡将由多方共同管控。霍尔木兹海峡可能由我和阿亚图拉共同控制。一旦达成协议,油价就会直线下跌。我们目前已经与伊朗达成了15项共识,包括伊朗不会拥有核武器。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":688419316,"gmtCreate":1657785804637,"gmtModify":1704868281691,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"加息100bp是大概率事件,如果不加大加息力度怎么能让新兴经济体崩解呢?新兴经济体不崩解怎么能够造成外围动荡呢?外围不动荡美国怎沫浑水摸鱼呢?不能再外围浑水摸鱼怎么能让美国国内精英集团爆赚呢?美国精英集团不爆赚又拿什么养活底层群体呢?底层生存问题不解决有怎么能够解决美国的整体经济危机呢?总归一句话:美国的问题就是全世界的问题,但美国的利益绝不是全世界的利益。","listText":"加息100bp是大概率事件,如果不加大加息力度怎么能让新兴经济体崩解呢?新兴经济体不崩解怎么能够造成外围动荡呢?外围不动荡美国怎沫浑水摸鱼呢?不能再外围浑水摸鱼怎么能让美国国内精英集团爆赚呢?美国精英集团不爆赚又拿什么养活底层群体呢?底层生存问题不解决有怎么能够解决美国的整体经济危机呢?总归一句话:美国的问题就是全世界的问题,但美国的利益绝不是全世界的利益。","text":"加息100bp是大概率事件,如果不加大加息力度怎么能让新兴经济体崩解呢?新兴经济体不崩解怎么能够造成外围动荡呢?外围不动荡美国怎沫浑水摸鱼呢?不能再外围浑水摸鱼怎么能让美国国内精英集团爆赚呢?美国精英集团不爆赚又拿什么养活底层群体呢?底层生存问题不解决有怎么能够解决美国的整体经济危机呢?总归一句话:美国的问题就是全世界的问题,但美国的利益绝不是全世界的利益。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688419316","repostId":"688409431","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":688409431,"gmtCreate":1657772226924,"gmtModify":1704868231485,"author":{"id":"3468322318173915","authorId":"3468322318173915","name":"阳光财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae4ab676f150a8d357cb5f3e4956d1a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468322318173915","idStr":"3468322318173915"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"\n 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>盘前成交量不理想,主力去了白银,留我们在这里垫后","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$盘前成交量不理想,主力去了白银,留我们在这里垫后","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312400680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559751846525325","authorId":"3559751846525325","name":"赌神周润发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/307750c30e88893e61263a541df3565c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559751846525325","idStr":"3559751846525325"},"content":"成交量低不好吗?说明大家都不出股票,空头无法回补","text":"成交量低不好吗?说明大家都不出股票,空头无法回补","html":"成交量低不好吗?说明大家都不出股票,空头无法回补"},{"author":{"id":"3493042399868874","authorId":"3493042399868874","name":"江湖恩仇录","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3493042399868874","idStr":"3493042399868874"},"content":"如果你买了,就不要放这种没有依据的推测,对你自己投资没有帮助。当是你没买,或者做空了,我是能够理解的","text":"如果你买了,就不要放这种没有依据的推测,对你自己投资没有帮助。当是你没买,或者做空了,我是能够理解的","html":"如果你买了,就不要放这种没有依据的推测,对你自己投资没有帮助。当是你没买,或者做空了,我是能够理解的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":471791519908664,"gmtCreate":1756214972020,"gmtModify":1756214973972,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"过去的已经过去了,未来还没有来。","listText":"过去的已经过去了,未来还没有来。","text":"过去的已经过去了,未来还没有来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/471791519908664","repostId":"361296956596360","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":361296956596360,"gmtCreate":1729235439145,"gmtModify":1729244402870,"author":{"id":"37002306153600","authorId":"37002306153600","name":"小虎访谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0f6fba0673df1de1c5c31bb2b4f6d4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"37002306153600","idStr":"37002306153600"},"themes":[],"title":"【小虎访谈】卖美股买中概!中国资产一定会反弹,“东升西降”是必然过程!","htmlText":"各位虎友们好,本周要与我们分享的虎友是 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 上获得了456%的收益率![看涨]近期他正在做仓位调整,他将更多资金从美国市场转向中国市场。他认为美股市场当前的风险大于收益机会,巴菲特 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a> 披露的投资方向也印证了这一逻辑。而中国资产虽然短期有风险,而长期来看还是机会更大,“东升西降”是一个确定的过程!此外,我们还邀请到了 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3447023310636580\">@局外人</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348559647072272\" target=\"_blank\">【小虎访谈】局外人:AI“局内人”6块抄底SOXL,纳指挣7倍!能力不重要,运气才重要</a>! 他也在本次的行情中在老虎证券上获得了超1400%的收益率!来吧虎友们,让我们一起来听听他们的投资心得大分享吧[你懂的][你懂的][你懂的]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3544441872957647\">@T0000023454</a> :Q:请简单自我介绍一下我家在河北承德农村,学历不高,但比较喜欢读书。上学时期读一些史学类书籍,毕业后转向金融类和时政读物,再后来就开始转到哲学与宗教方面。我觉得这也是我个人成长的三个重要阶","text":"各位虎友们好,本周要与我们分享的虎友是 @T0000023454 。他曾在“散户大战华尔街”的战役中,通过操作期权,一天内成功获得了30万+的收益[财迷]!在近期中概股猛涨时,他也通过购买看涨期权,成功在 $老虎证券(TIGR)$ 上获得了456%的收益率![看涨]近期他正在做仓位调整,他将更多资金从美国市场转向中国市场。他认为美股市场当前的风险大于收益机会,巴菲特 $伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ 披露的投资方向也印证了这一逻辑。而中国资产虽然短期有风险,而长期来看还是机会更大,“东升西降”是一个确定的过程!此外,我们还邀请到了 @局外人 , 【小虎访谈】局外人:AI“局内人”6块抄底SOXL,纳指挣7倍!能力不重要,运气才重要! 他也在本次的行情中在老虎证券上获得了超1400%的收益率!来吧虎友们,让我们一起来听听他们的投资心得大分享吧[你懂的][你懂的][你懂的]@T0000023454 :Q:请简单自我介绍一下我家在河北承德农村,学历不高,但比较喜欢读书。上学时期读一些史学类书籍,毕业后转向金融类和时政读物,再后来就开始转到哲学与宗教方面。我觉得这也是我个人成长的三个重要阶","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5178b82d3c441ae206a87940f2210d90","width":"696","height":"382"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/785c21c144a57b9fef630da8c18e827f","width":"816","height":"943"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc6c37df658daf37bf1f363d4bd164cf","width":"1140","height":"653"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361296956596360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":137987971,"gmtCreate":1622285637993,"gmtModify":1622285637993,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>从三天假期的第一天WSB的发酵程度来看似乎不是很理想,上一次WSB疯狂是因为有带头大哥站出来发声谴责华尔街的贪婪,牵扯到了政治,激起了大多数人的反抗意识,但这次似乎没有这个特质,而只是纯粹的赌博。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>从三天假期的第一天WSB的发酵程度来看似乎不是很理想,上一次WSB疯狂是因为有带头大哥站出来发声谴责华尔街的贪婪,牵扯到了政治,激起了大多数人的反抗意识,但这次似乎没有这个特质,而只是纯粹的赌博。","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$从三天假期的第一天WSB的发酵程度来看似乎不是很理想,上一次WSB疯狂是因为有带头大哥站出来发声谴责华尔街的贪婪,牵扯到了政治,激起了大多数人的反抗意识,但这次似乎没有这个特质,而只是纯粹的赌博。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137987971","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574638105197525","authorId":"3574638105197525","name":"钞票厚厚滴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f805c9a7997a2ceab9f00e661d7078","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574638105197525","idStr":"3574638105197525"},"content":"明白人还有有不少的,到哪里都不会吃亏,祝发大财","text":"明白人还有有不少的,到哪里都不会吃亏,祝发大财","html":"明白人还有有不少的,到哪里都不会吃亏,祝发大财"},{"author":{"id":"3562670436825511","authorId":"3562670436825511","name":"上了飞机老师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f05edd9e1dfe2801c7d5b00683313e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3562670436825511","idStr":"3562670436825511"},"content":"去油管看看trades treys,Reddit有superstonk也有amcstock,discord也有几万人的大群,fb的群接连被强行注销的有三四个,至少可以在推特关注一下CEO Adam的号。","text":"去油管看看trades treys,Reddit有superstonk也有amcstock,discord也有几万人的大群,fb的群接连被强行注销的有三四个,至少可以在推特关注一下CEO Adam的号。","html":"去油管看看trades treys,Reddit有superstonk也有amcstock,discord也有几万人的大群,fb的群接连被强行注销的有三四个,至少可以在推特关注一下CEO Adam的号。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}