Mingfuo的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Mingfuo

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IP属地：北京

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4粉丝

4主题

0勋章

05-20 16:17

$腾讯音乐(TME)$ 得赶紧跑了，到顶了，估计得回调

05-12

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

05-09

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 谷歌不会这样落幕的，加仓

05-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

05-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 蚊子肉也是肉

05-01

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉能到300么

04-28

不知道哪些空🐶在这里瞎写，一点逻辑都没有。。。

京东不懂外卖

04-24

$京东集团-SW(09618)$ 疯了吧，为啥天天跌

04-11

$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 这是股票完了😩

04-10

$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 太扯了。。

2024-10-07

$恒生科技ETF(03032)$ 好快跑吧，下午翻绿色

2024-02-06

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 让我看看今天谁会冲进去[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

2024-02-01

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉长期肯定要跌，国内电车后面肯定越来越牛逼

2024-02-01

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 哈哈哈，又开始套人[笑哭] [笑哭] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

2024-01-30

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 还得继续[捂脸] [捂脸]

2024-01-25

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 估计还得跌一半

2024-01-10

$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ 瑞幸为啥一直跌

2023-12-27

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 太扯了🤪，看不懂

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特斯拉能到300么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430430216265848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568297336315085","authorId":"3568297336315085","name":"小鹏2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d897b36ef990579d0cd5f91b68c6575","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568297336315085","authorIdStr":"3568297336315085"},"content":"今天不到，明天到。","text":"今天不到，明天到。","html":"今天不到，明天到。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":429196242957024,"gmtCreate":1745806414115,"gmtModify":1745806416041,"author":{"id":"3545047605993493","authorId":"3545047605993493","name":"Mingfuo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545047605993493","authorIdStr":"3545047605993493"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不知道哪些空🐶在这里瞎写，一点逻辑都没有。。。","listText":"不知道哪些空🐶在这里瞎写，一点逻辑都没有。。。","text":"不知道哪些空🐶在这里瞎写，一点逻辑都没有。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/429196242957024","repostId":"2530491134","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2530491134","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1745805260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2530491134?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-04-28 09:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"京东不懂外卖","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2530491134","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"从京东目前整体表现来看，这帮人其实不懂外卖。刘强东说的挺认真的，但明显不是很懂。京东外卖如果真能干到5%，那就是妥妥的全球TOP1。而且现在的京东外卖跟美团比，单量少，单笔提成高，佣金少，还要给骑手交五险一金。先来看看京东外卖的百亿补贴。而且，达达的骑手属于众包，不是全职，吃不到京东外卖五险一金政策。目前的京东外卖，一面是宣传上高举高打，另一面则是人手短缺、运力不足。","content":"<html><body><blockquote>\n<p>作者 | 闻旅 Tniniuo </p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>目前整体表现来看，这帮人其实不懂外卖。</p>\n<p>前几天刘强东一段内部讲话被曝出来。</p>\n<p>原话是，“我给京东外卖定一条规矩，京东外卖永远赚的净利润不允许超过5%。超过5%，我要处分人的。”</p>\n<p>刘强东说的挺认真的，但明显不是很懂。</p>\n<p>放眼全球，大型外卖公司，目前没有人净利润能做到5%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>做过一份报告，统计了9家大公司2024年——2027年外卖业务预计净利润率情况。</p>\n<p>当时，大家对2024年净利润率平均预计值是2.2%。2025年是2.64%。2027年是3.35%。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"https://img.lanjinger.com/news/20250425/182946_nmhcdgkbofssw.jpeg\" width=\"1080\"/></p>\n<p>京东外卖如果真能干到5%，那就是妥妥的全球TOP1。</p>\n<p>这就显得刘强东的话挺矛盾，京东外卖觉得赚5%究竟是多还是少呢？</p>\n<p>而且现在的京东外卖跟美团比，单量少，单笔提成高，佣金少，还要给骑手交五险一金。</p>\n<p>大家得想想，这5%利润率要从哪里来？</p>\n<p>先来看看京东外卖的百亿补贴。</p>\n<p>4月11号这个活动上线的时候，是平台全额承担补贴成本。4月18号的时候，则调整为商家承担活动成本30%-50%。4月23号再次调整，变成所有商家承担活动成本50%。</p>\n<p>不到半个月，就从平台承担，变成平台、商户一人一半。未来会不会商户承担更高，还是未知数。而且商家售价被锁定，无法更改价格。有可能随着成本比例上调，商家收益越来越低。</p>\n<p>再说五险一金这一块。</p>\n<p>有媒体给京东算过，如果按照月薪8000元的基数，每名骑手每个月五险一金的成本是3696元。一年成本就是4.4万。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"https://img.lanjinger.com/news/20250425/182946_wxvsnwtydfbow.jpeg\" width=\"745\"/></p>\n<p>京东有多少稳定骑手目前不知道。因为运力问题，最近京东也还在招骑手。但是美团有750万骑手，其中有100万名稳定高频的骑手。</p>\n<p>京东想要达到美团的规模，运力也差不多要对等。</p>\n<p>那么仅骑手的社保成本就是每年440亿。</p>\n<p>2024年全年，京东净利润414亿元，还不够给这些骑手缴五险一金的。</p>\n<p>不过目前按照京东官方的说法，京东外面目前只有1万多名全职骑手。算上核心运力达达，规模也仅仅维持在130万。远低于美团的750万和饿了么的400万。</p>\n<p>而且，达达的骑手属于众包，不是全职，吃不到京东外卖五险一金政策。</p>\n<p>京东运力不足这件事，其实在前几天疯狂补贴，日订单突破500万单后，暴露的非常明显。</p>\n<p>有媒体做了测试。在京东和美团同时下单同款三明治，京东下单时间比美团早2分钟，但京东订单送达时间比美团晚14分钟。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"https://img.lanjinger.com/news/20250425/182946_ucvkrkcwhmsxr.jpeg\" width=\"776\"/></p>\n<p>很明显，京东外卖正陷入一场由“补贴-爆单-运力短缺-用户体验恶化”构成的死循环。</p>\n<p>虽然京东随后推出了“超时20分钟免单”政策，但京东大部分订单预计送餐时间都在一小时左右。如果再超时20分钟，相当于用户从下单到吃上饭要一个半小时。</p>\n<p>饿一个半小时，这个体验可以说相当糟糕了，不是免单就能弥补的。</p>\n<p>能为了免单饿一个半小时，下次还用京东的用户，也根本算不上优质用户。更多可能是羊毛党。</p>\n<p>事实上，曾有数据显示，京东外卖在2025年补贴高峰期曾实现日订单40万单，但补贴减少后订单量骤降至2万单。</p>\n<p>外卖行业最大的幻觉是，以为用户曾经点过单，就会是忠实的高频用户。或者以为，只要商户上线了，就会永久成为平台商户。</p>\n<p>而有这种幻觉的口碑外卖、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>外卖、滴滴外卖都消失了。</p>\n<p>目前的京东外卖，一面是宣传上高举高打，另一面则是人手短缺、运力不足。</p>\n<p>很明显，京东对外卖这个新业务不够了解。</p>\n<p>外卖业务由用户流量、商户供给、骑手履约三大齿轮构成。京东试图想让三个齿轮齐头并进。</p>\n<p>按照理想中剧本，京东高举五险一金大旗，理应在骑手圈里一呼百应，运力问题瞬间解决。</p>\n<p>为啥落实到实际业务上，却跟想象的剧本情节不太一样？</p>\n<p>一是，京东五险一金这点宣传小聪明，其实早就在快递行业用过了。</p>\n<p>想当初，京东也是要把一线快递员当哥们处，京东2023年也说过要给德邦快递的兄弟们缴五险一金。但现在还有德邦快递员在网上吐槽，没见过五险一金，签的都是第三方公司。</p>\n<p>去年，不少京东一线快递员在网络上吐槽称：京东取消1000元底薪，2023年年底调整了计提单价，2024年开年又调整了派件计提，短短3个月迎来了2次较大幅度的薪资调整。</p>\n<p>二是，五险一金这个事，在舆论层面好用，而对一线骑手来说，其实没有那么大吸引力。</p>\n<p>大家看的还是每单配送费有多少，每个月到手能有多少钱。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"https://img.lanjinger.com/news/20250425/182947_iwxfnmaxengsu.png\" width=\"1080\"/></p>\n<p>三是，据一些骑手说，京东对送餐时间的管理和处罚措施比美团更加严格。只适合那种非常熟练的老外卖员做。</p>\n<p>但很多老外卖员并不买京东的账，因为京东单次接单上限低，导致每天的单量少。</p>\n<p>京东外卖每次只能接4单，而美团、饿了么一次能接十几单。意味着，同等配送时间内，京东给予骑手的总单量，就是比其它平台少。</p>\n<p>而外卖配送本身就是一个跟时间赛跑，计件的活。目前京东的高提成，也覆盖不了因接单限制，导致的收入损失。而京东的高提成，骑手们并不确定可以持续多久。</p>\n<p>并且按照一些外卖员说法，京东系统目前导航、定位能力差，在卡单、用户下单错误等问题上，处理的也不太人性化。</p>\n<p>很多超时并非骑手责任，但上传申诉不会通过，仍会被罚款。</p>\n<p>此外，京东外卖的商家覆盖度也明显不足。</p>\n<p>显然，种种痕迹表明，京东的运营对外卖行业的理解度并不高。</p>\n<p>不止不懂骑手，还不懂商家。</p>\n<p>比如，有商户在微博上吐槽，京东外卖给店方的出餐时间强制设置为3分钟，若超时，不需要店家同意就给退款，这钱是店家来出。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"https://img.lanjinger.com/news/20250425/182947_xvwlqbbwmfezl.jpeg\" width=\"620\"/></p>\n<p>吐槽的商户不止一家。</p>\n<p>北京簋街知名川菜馆老板——博主“老灶台张胖子”晒出满屏因“超时3分钟”产生的退款单，质疑道，“现杀活鱼光去鳞都要两分钟！京东这是要我们改行卖料理包？”</p>\n<p>有人推测，京东是不是把商超的系统直接挪到外卖去用了，产品经理太缺乏生活常识。</p>\n<p>不过比起老老实实烧菜做饭的商户，有些商家正在用刷空单的方法套京东贴补。</p>\n<p>比如一个15元的单子，京东补贴10元，实际下单成本只需5元。再支付骑手3元配送费，商家只需发个空包，到手 12 元。</p>\n<p>这个速度出餐都用不上三分钟，只要30秒就可以出餐。</p>\n<p>显然，京东要想把外卖做好，不是光在舆论上喊喊口号，争取一些互联网“基本盘”就能干成的。</p>\n<p>整个外卖业务的运营、设计，行业理解，风险控制等等，有太多需要提升的地方。</p>\n</body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>京东不懂外卖</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n京东不懂外卖\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-28 09:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/256062><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | 闻旅 Tniniuo \n\n从京东目前整体表现来看，这帮人其实不懂外卖。\n前几天刘强东一段内部讲话被曝出来。\n原话是，“我给京东外卖定一条规矩，京东外卖永远赚的净利润不允许超过5%。超过5%，我要处分人的。”\n刘强东说的挺认真的，但明显不是很懂。\n放眼全球，大型外卖公司，目前没有人净利润能做到5%。\n摩根大通做过一份报告，统计了9家大公司2024年——2027年外卖业务预计净利润率情况。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/256062\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89618":"京东集团-SWR","LU0791590937.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD)","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0791591158.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) ACC","JD":"京东","LU0431992006.USD":"摩根大通新兴市场机会A（acc）","LU0588545904.SGD":"Eastspring 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Tniniuo \n\n从京东目前整体表现来看，这帮人其实不懂外卖。\n前几天刘强东一段内部讲话被曝出来。\n原话是，“我给京东外卖定一条规矩，京东外卖永远赚的净利润不允许超过5%。超过5%，我要处分人的。”\n刘强东说的挺认真的，但明显不是很懂。\n放眼全球，大型外卖公司，目前没有人净利润能做到5%。\n摩根大通做过一份报告，统计了9家大公司2024年——2027年外卖业务预计净利润率情况。\n当时，大家对2024年净利润率平均预计值是2.2%。2025年是2.64%。2027年是3.35%。\n\n京东外卖如果真能干到5%，那就是妥妥的全球TOP1。\n这就显得刘强东的话挺矛盾，京东外卖觉得赚5%究竟是多还是少呢？\n而且现在的京东外卖跟美团比，单量少，单笔提成高，佣金少，还要给骑手交五险一金。\n大家得想想，这5%利润率要从哪里来？\n先来看看京东外卖的百亿补贴。\n4月11号这个活动上线的时候，是平台全额承担补贴成本。4月18号的时候，则调整为商家承担活动成本30%-50%。4月23号再次调整，变成所有商家承担活动成本50%。\n不到半个月，就从平台承担，变成平台、商户一人一半。未来会不会商户承担更高，还是未知数。而且商家售价被锁定，无法更改价格。有可能随着成本比例上调，商家收益越来越低。\n再说五险一金这一块。\n有媒体给京东算过，如果按照月薪8000元的基数，每名骑手每个月五险一金的成本是3696元。一年成本就是4.4万。\n\n京东有多少稳定骑手目前不知道。因为运力问题，最近京东也还在招骑手。但是美团有750万骑手，其中有100万名稳定高频的骑手。\n京东想要达到美团的规模，运力也差不多要对等。\n那么仅骑手的社保成本就是每年440亿。\n2024年全年，京东净利润414亿元，还不够给这些骑手缴五险一金的。\n不过目前按照京东官方的说法，京东外面目前只有1万多名全职骑手。算上核心运力达达，规模也仅仅维持在130万。远低于美团的750万和饿了么的400万。\n而且，达达的骑手属于众包，不是全职，吃不到京东外卖五险一金政策。\n京东运力不足这件事，其实在前几天疯狂补贴，日订单突破500万单后，暴露的非常明显。\n有媒体做了测试。在京东和美团同时下单同款三明治，京东下单时间比美团早2分钟，但京东订单送达时间比美团晚14分钟。\n\n很明显，京东外卖正陷入一场由“补贴-爆单-运力短缺-用户体验恶化”构成的死循环。\n虽然京东随后推出了“超时20分钟免单”政策，但京东大部分订单预计送餐时间都在一小时左右。如果再超时20分钟，相当于用户从下单到吃上饭要一个半小时。\n饿一个半小时，这个体验可以说相当糟糕了，不是免单就能弥补的。\n能为了免单饿一个半小时，下次还用京东的用户，也根本算不上优质用户。更多可能是羊毛党。\n事实上，曾有数据显示，京东外卖在2025年补贴高峰期曾实现日订单40万单，但补贴减少后订单量骤降至2万单。\n外卖行业最大的幻觉是，以为用户曾经点过单，就会是忠实的高频用户。或者以为，只要商户上线了，就会永久成为平台商户。\n而有这种幻觉的口碑外卖、百度外卖、滴滴外卖都消失了。\n目前的京东外卖，一面是宣传上高举高打，另一面则是人手短缺、运力不足。\n很明显，京东对外卖这个新业务不够了解。\n外卖业务由用户流量、商户供给、骑手履约三大齿轮构成。京东试图想让三个齿轮齐头并进。\n按照理想中剧本，京东高举五险一金大旗，理应在骑手圈里一呼百应，运力问题瞬间解决。\n为啥落实到实际业务上，却跟想象的剧本情节不太一样？\n一是，京东五险一金这点宣传小聪明，其实早就在快递行业用过了。\n想当初，京东也是要把一线快递员当哥们处，京东2023年也说过要给德邦快递的兄弟们缴五险一金。但现在还有德邦快递员在网上吐槽，没见过五险一金，签的都是第三方公司。\n去年，不少京东一线快递员在网络上吐槽称：京东取消1000元底薪，2023年年底调整了计提单价，2024年开年又调整了派件计提，短短3个月迎来了2次较大幅度的薪资调整。\n二是，五险一金这个事，在舆论层面好用，而对一线骑手来说，其实没有那么大吸引力。\n大家看的还是每单配送费有多少，每个月到手能有多少钱。\n\n三是，据一些骑手说，京东对送餐时间的管理和处罚措施比美团更加严格。只适合那种非常熟练的老外卖员做。\n但很多老外卖员并不买京东的账，因为京东单次接单上限低，导致每天的单量少。\n京东外卖每次只能接4单，而美团、饿了么一次能接十几单。意味着，同等配送时间内，京东给予骑手的总单量，就是比其它平台少。\n而外卖配送本身就是一个跟时间赛跑，计件的活。目前京东的高提成，也覆盖不了因接单限制，导致的收入损失。而京东的高提成，骑手们并不确定可以持续多久。\n并且按照一些外卖员说法，京东系统目前导航、定位能力差，在卡单、用户下单错误等问题上，处理的也不太人性化。\n很多超时并非骑手责任，但上传申诉不会通过，仍会被罚款。\n此外，京东外卖的商家覆盖度也明显不足。\n显然，种种痕迹表明，京东的运营对外卖行业的理解度并不高。\n不止不懂骑手，还不懂商家。\n比如，有商户在微博上吐槽，京东外卖给店方的出餐时间强制设置为3分钟，若超时，不需要店家同意就给退款，这钱是店家来出。\n\n吐槽的商户不止一家。\n北京簋街知名川菜馆老板——博主“老灶台张胖子”晒出满屏因“超时3分钟”产生的退款单，质疑道，“现杀活鱼光去鳞都要两分钟！京东这是要我们改行卖料理包？”\n有人推测，京东是不是把商超的系统直接挪到外卖去用了，产品经理太缺乏生活常识。\n不过比起老老实实烧菜做饭的商户，有些商家正在用刷空单的方法套京东贴补。\n比如一个15元的单子，京东补贴10元，实际下单成本只需5元。再支付骑手3元配送费，商家只需发个空包，到手 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蚊子肉也是肉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f46ee4c40888a4a0abe8507f4cf5999","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/432908926980280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":429196242957024,"gmtCreate":1745806414115,"gmtModify":1745806416041,"author":{"id":"3545047605993493","authorId":"3545047605993493","name":"Mingfuo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545047605993493","authorIdStr":"3545047605993493"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不知道哪些空🐶在这里瞎写，一点逻辑都没有。。。","listText":"不知道哪些空🐶在这里瞎写，一点逻辑都没有。。。","text":"不知道哪些空🐶在这里瞎写，一点逻辑都没有。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/429196242957024","repostId":"2530491134","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2530491134","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1745805260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2530491134?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-04-28 09:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"京东不懂外卖","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2530491134","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"从京东目前整体表现来看，这帮人其实不懂外卖。刘强东说的挺认真的，但明显不是很懂。京东外卖如果真能干到5%，那就是妥妥的全球TOP1。而且现在的京东外卖跟美团比，单量少，单笔提成高，佣金少，还要给骑手交五险一金。先来看看京东外卖的百亿补贴。而且，达达的骑手属于众包，不是全职，吃不到京东外卖五险一金政策。目前的京东外卖，一面是宣传上高举高打，另一面则是人手短缺、运力不足。","content":"<html><body><blockquote>\n<p>作者 | 闻旅 Tniniuo </p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>目前整体表现来看，这帮人其实不懂外卖。</p>\n<p>前几天刘强东一段内部讲话被曝出来。</p>\n<p>原话是，“我给京东外卖定一条规矩，京东外卖永远赚的净利润不允许超过5%。超过5%，我要处分人的。”</p>\n<p>刘强东说的挺认真的，但明显不是很懂。</p>\n<p>放眼全球，大型外卖公司，目前没有人净利润能做到5%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>做过一份报告，统计了9家大公司2024年——2027年外卖业务预计净利润率情况。</p>\n<p>当时，大家对2024年净利润率平均预计值是2.2%。2025年是2.64%。2027年是3.35%。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"https://img.lanjinger.com/news/20250425/182946_nmhcdgkbofssw.jpeg\" width=\"1080\"/></p>\n<p>京东外卖如果真能干到5%，那就是妥妥的全球TOP1。</p>\n<p>这就显得刘强东的话挺矛盾，京东外卖觉得赚5%究竟是多还是少呢？</p>\n<p>而且现在的京东外卖跟美团比，单量少，单笔提成高，佣金少，还要给骑手交五险一金。</p>\n<p>大家得想想，这5%利润率要从哪里来？</p>\n<p>先来看看京东外卖的百亿补贴。</p>\n<p>4月11号这个活动上线的时候，是平台全额承担补贴成本。4月18号的时候，则调整为商家承担活动成本30%-50%。4月23号再次调整，变成所有商家承担活动成本50%。</p>\n<p>不到半个月，就从平台承担，变成平台、商户一人一半。未来会不会商户承担更高，还是未知数。而且商家售价被锁定，无法更改价格。有可能随着成本比例上调，商家收益越来越低。</p>\n<p>再说五险一金这一块。</p>\n<p>有媒体给京东算过，如果按照月薪8000元的基数，每名骑手每个月五险一金的成本是3696元。一年成本就是4.4万。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"https://img.lanjinger.com/news/20250425/182946_wxvsnwtydfbow.jpeg\" width=\"745\"/></p>\n<p>京东有多少稳定骑手目前不知道。因为运力问题，最近京东也还在招骑手。但是美团有750万骑手，其中有100万名稳定高频的骑手。</p>\n<p>京东想要达到美团的规模，运力也差不多要对等。</p>\n<p>那么仅骑手的社保成本就是每年440亿。</p>\n<p>2024年全年，京东净利润414亿元，还不够给这些骑手缴五险一金的。</p>\n<p>不过目前按照京东官方的说法，京东外面目前只有1万多名全职骑手。算上核心运力达达，规模也仅仅维持在130万。远低于美团的750万和饿了么的400万。</p>\n<p>而且，达达的骑手属于众包，不是全职，吃不到京东外卖五险一金政策。</p>\n<p>京东运力不足这件事，其实在前几天疯狂补贴，日订单突破500万单后，暴露的非常明显。</p>\n<p>有媒体做了测试。在京东和美团同时下单同款三明治，京东下单时间比美团早2分钟，但京东订单送达时间比美团晚14分钟。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"https://img.lanjinger.com/news/20250425/182946_ucvkrkcwhmsxr.jpeg\" width=\"776\"/></p>\n<p>很明显，京东外卖正陷入一场由“补贴-爆单-运力短缺-用户体验恶化”构成的死循环。</p>\n<p>虽然京东随后推出了“超时20分钟免单”政策，但京东大部分订单预计送餐时间都在一小时左右。如果再超时20分钟，相当于用户从下单到吃上饭要一个半小时。</p>\n<p>饿一个半小时，这个体验可以说相当糟糕了，不是免单就能弥补的。</p>\n<p>能为了免单饿一个半小时，下次还用京东的用户，也根本算不上优质用户。更多可能是羊毛党。</p>\n<p>事实上，曾有数据显示，京东外卖在2025年补贴高峰期曾实现日订单40万单，但补贴减少后订单量骤降至2万单。</p>\n<p>外卖行业最大的幻觉是，以为用户曾经点过单，就会是忠实的高频用户。或者以为，只要商户上线了，就会永久成为平台商户。</p>\n<p>而有这种幻觉的口碑外卖、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>外卖、滴滴外卖都消失了。</p>\n<p>目前的京东外卖，一面是宣传上高举高打，另一面则是人手短缺、运力不足。</p>\n<p>很明显，京东对外卖这个新业务不够了解。</p>\n<p>外卖业务由用户流量、商户供给、骑手履约三大齿轮构成。京东试图想让三个齿轮齐头并进。</p>\n<p>按照理想中剧本，京东高举五险一金大旗，理应在骑手圈里一呼百应，运力问题瞬间解决。</p>\n<p>为啥落实到实际业务上，却跟想象的剧本情节不太一样？</p>\n<p>一是，京东五险一金这点宣传小聪明，其实早就在快递行业用过了。</p>\n<p>想当初，京东也是要把一线快递员当哥们处，京东2023年也说过要给德邦快递的兄弟们缴五险一金。但现在还有德邦快递员在网上吐槽，没见过五险一金，签的都是第三方公司。</p>\n<p>去年，不少京东一线快递员在网络上吐槽称：京东取消1000元底薪，2023年年底调整了计提单价，2024年开年又调整了派件计提，短短3个月迎来了2次较大幅度的薪资调整。</p>\n<p>二是，五险一金这个事，在舆论层面好用，而对一线骑手来说，其实没有那么大吸引力。</p>\n<p>大家看的还是每单配送费有多少，每个月到手能有多少钱。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"https://img.lanjinger.com/news/20250425/182947_iwxfnmaxengsu.png\" width=\"1080\"/></p>\n<p>三是，据一些骑手说，京东对送餐时间的管理和处罚措施比美团更加严格。只适合那种非常熟练的老外卖员做。</p>\n<p>但很多老外卖员并不买京东的账，因为京东单次接单上限低，导致每天的单量少。</p>\n<p>京东外卖每次只能接4单，而美团、饿了么一次能接十几单。意味着，同等配送时间内，京东给予骑手的总单量，就是比其它平台少。</p>\n<p>而外卖配送本身就是一个跟时间赛跑，计件的活。目前京东的高提成，也覆盖不了因接单限制，导致的收入损失。而京东的高提成，骑手们并不确定可以持续多久。</p>\n<p>并且按照一些外卖员说法，京东系统目前导航、定位能力差，在卡单、用户下单错误等问题上，处理的也不太人性化。</p>\n<p>很多超时并非骑手责任，但上传申诉不会通过，仍会被罚款。</p>\n<p>此外，京东外卖的商家覆盖度也明显不足。</p>\n<p>显然，种种痕迹表明，京东的运营对外卖行业的理解度并不高。</p>\n<p>不止不懂骑手，还不懂商家。</p>\n<p>比如，有商户在微博上吐槽，京东外卖给店方的出餐时间强制设置为3分钟，若超时，不需要店家同意就给退款，这钱是店家来出。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"https://img.lanjinger.com/news/20250425/182947_xvwlqbbwmfezl.jpeg\" width=\"620\"/></p>\n<p>吐槽的商户不止一家。</p>\n<p>北京簋街知名川菜馆老板——博主“老灶台张胖子”晒出满屏因“超时3分钟”产生的退款单，质疑道，“现杀活鱼光去鳞都要两分钟！京东这是要我们改行卖料理包？”</p>\n<p>有人推测，京东是不是把商超的系统直接挪到外卖去用了，产品经理太缺乏生活常识。</p>\n<p>不过比起老老实实烧菜做饭的商户，有些商家正在用刷空单的方法套京东贴补。</p>\n<p>比如一个15元的单子，京东补贴10元，实际下单成本只需5元。再支付骑手3元配送费，商家只需发个空包，到手 12 元。</p>\n<p>这个速度出餐都用不上三分钟，只要30秒就可以出餐。</p>\n<p>显然，京东要想把外卖做好，不是光在舆论上喊喊口号，争取一些互联网“基本盘”就能干成的。</p>\n<p>整个外卖业务的运营、设计，行业理解，风险控制等等，有太多需要提升的地方。</p>\n</body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>京东不懂外卖</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n京东不懂外卖\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-28 09:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/256062><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | 闻旅 Tniniuo \n\n从京东目前整体表现来看，这帮人其实不懂外卖。\n前几天刘强东一段内部讲话被曝出来。\n原话是，“我给京东外卖定一条规矩，京东外卖永远赚的净利润不允许超过5%。超过5%，我要处分人的。”\n刘强东说的挺认真的，但明显不是很懂。\n放眼全球，大型外卖公司，目前没有人净利润能做到5%。\n摩根大通做过一份报告，统计了9家大公司2024年——2027年外卖业务预计净利润率情况。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/256062\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89618":"京东集团-SWR","LU0791590937.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD)","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0791591158.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) ACC","JD":"京东","LU0431992006.USD":"摩根大通新兴市场机会A（acc）","LU0588545904.SGD":"Eastspring 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Tniniuo \n\n从京东目前整体表现来看，这帮人其实不懂外卖。\n前几天刘强东一段内部讲话被曝出来。\n原话是，“我给京东外卖定一条规矩，京东外卖永远赚的净利润不允许超过5%。超过5%，我要处分人的。”\n刘强东说的挺认真的，但明显不是很懂。\n放眼全球，大型外卖公司，目前没有人净利润能做到5%。\n摩根大通做过一份报告，统计了9家大公司2024年——2027年外卖业务预计净利润率情况。\n当时，大家对2024年净利润率平均预计值是2.2%。2025年是2.64%。2027年是3.35%。\n\n京东外卖如果真能干到5%，那就是妥妥的全球TOP1。\n这就显得刘强东的话挺矛盾，京东外卖觉得赚5%究竟是多还是少呢？\n而且现在的京东外卖跟美团比，单量少，单笔提成高，佣金少，还要给骑手交五险一金。\n大家得想想，这5%利润率要从哪里来？\n先来看看京东外卖的百亿补贴。\n4月11号这个活动上线的时候，是平台全额承担补贴成本。4月18号的时候，则调整为商家承担活动成本30%-50%。4月23号再次调整，变成所有商家承担活动成本50%。\n不到半个月，就从平台承担，变成平台、商户一人一半。未来会不会商户承担更高，还是未知数。而且商家售价被锁定，无法更改价格。有可能随着成本比例上调，商家收益越来越低。\n再说五险一金这一块。\n有媒体给京东算过，如果按照月薪8000元的基数，每名骑手每个月五险一金的成本是3696元。一年成本就是4.4万。\n\n京东有多少稳定骑手目前不知道。因为运力问题，最近京东也还在招骑手。但是美团有750万骑手，其中有100万名稳定高频的骑手。\n京东想要达到美团的规模，运力也差不多要对等。\n那么仅骑手的社保成本就是每年440亿。\n2024年全年，京东净利润414亿元，还不够给这些骑手缴五险一金的。\n不过目前按照京东官方的说法，京东外面目前只有1万多名全职骑手。算上核心运力达达，规模也仅仅维持在130万。远低于美团的750万和饿了么的400万。\n而且，达达的骑手属于众包，不是全职，吃不到京东外卖五险一金政策。\n京东运力不足这件事，其实在前几天疯狂补贴，日订单突破500万单后，暴露的非常明显。\n有媒体做了测试。在京东和美团同时下单同款三明治，京东下单时间比美团早2分钟，但京东订单送达时间比美团晚14分钟。\n\n很明显，京东外卖正陷入一场由“补贴-爆单-运力短缺-用户体验恶化”构成的死循环。\n虽然京东随后推出了“超时20分钟免单”政策，但京东大部分订单预计送餐时间都在一小时左右。如果再超时20分钟，相当于用户从下单到吃上饭要一个半小时。\n饿一个半小时，这个体验可以说相当糟糕了，不是免单就能弥补的。\n能为了免单饿一个半小时，下次还用京东的用户，也根本算不上优质用户。更多可能是羊毛党。\n事实上，曾有数据显示，京东外卖在2025年补贴高峰期曾实现日订单40万单，但补贴减少后订单量骤降至2万单。\n外卖行业最大的幻觉是，以为用户曾经点过单，就会是忠实的高频用户。或者以为，只要商户上线了，就会永久成为平台商户。\n而有这种幻觉的口碑外卖、百度外卖、滴滴外卖都消失了。\n目前的京东外卖，一面是宣传上高举高打，另一面则是人手短缺、运力不足。\n很明显，京东对外卖这个新业务不够了解。\n外卖业务由用户流量、商户供给、骑手履约三大齿轮构成。京东试图想让三个齿轮齐头并进。\n按照理想中剧本，京东高举五险一金大旗，理应在骑手圈里一呼百应，运力问题瞬间解决。\n为啥落实到实际业务上，却跟想象的剧本情节不太一样？\n一是，京东五险一金这点宣传小聪明，其实早就在快递行业用过了。\n想当初，京东也是要把一线快递员当哥们处，京东2023年也说过要给德邦快递的兄弟们缴五险一金。但现在还有德邦快递员在网上吐槽，没见过五险一金，签的都是第三方公司。\n去年，不少京东一线快递员在网络上吐槽称：京东取消1000元底薪，2023年年底调整了计提单价，2024年开年又调整了派件计提，短短3个月迎来了2次较大幅度的薪资调整。\n二是，五险一金这个事，在舆论层面好用，而对一线骑手来说，其实没有那么大吸引力。\n大家看的还是每单配送费有多少，每个月到手能有多少钱。\n\n三是，据一些骑手说，京东对送餐时间的管理和处罚措施比美团更加严格。只适合那种非常熟练的老外卖员做。\n但很多老外卖员并不买京东的账，因为京东单次接单上限低，导致每天的单量少。\n京东外卖每次只能接4单，而美团、饿了么一次能接十几单。意味着，同等配送时间内，京东给予骑手的总单量，就是比其它平台少。\n而外卖配送本身就是一个跟时间赛跑，计件的活。目前京东的高提成，也覆盖不了因接单限制，导致的收入损失。而京东的高提成，骑手们并不确定可以持续多久。\n并且按照一些外卖员说法，京东系统目前导航、定位能力差，在卡单、用户下单错误等问题上，处理的也不太人性化。\n很多超时并非骑手责任，但上传申诉不会通过，仍会被罚款。\n此外，京东外卖的商家覆盖度也明显不足。\n显然，种种痕迹表明，京东的运营对外卖行业的理解度并不高。\n不止不懂骑手，还不懂商家。\n比如，有商户在微博上吐槽，京东外卖给店方的出餐时间强制设置为3分钟，若超时，不需要店家同意就给退款，这钱是店家来出。\n\n吐槽的商户不止一家。\n北京簋街知名川菜馆老板——博主“老灶台张胖子”晒出满屏因“超时3分钟”产生的退款单，质疑道，“现杀活鱼光去鳞都要两分钟！京东这是要我们改行卖料理包？”\n有人推测，京东是不是把商超的系统直接挪到外卖去用了，产品经理太缺乏生活常识。\n不过比起老老实实烧菜做饭的商户，有些商家正在用刷空单的方法套京东贴补。\n比如一个15元的单子，京东补贴10元，实际下单成本只需5元。再支付骑手3元配送费，商家只需发个空包，到手 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