下一站苏州站的个人主页 - 老虎社区

下一站苏州站

下一站苏州站

春风吹遍每一个角落！

IP属地：云南

3关注

1粉丝

2主题

0勋章

下一站苏州站

2021-02-04

$游戏驿站(GME)$不知道屎壳郎和它的兄弟们，还有那个什么合肥男科医院，此刻是怎样的心情

下一站苏州站

2021-02-11

B做空B

抱歉，原内容已删除

下一站苏州站

2021-02-13

$荔枝(LIZI)$庄股又来带节奏

下一站苏州站

2021-11-23

去年也是这帮人，跨过香江去灰头土脸回。一年过去又硬气了[捂脸]

抱歉，原内容已删除

下一站苏州站

2021-07-19

序曲已经拉开

抱歉，原内容已删除

下一站苏州站

2021-06-07

$逸仙电商(YSG)$加加速，搞快点

下一站苏州站

2021-05-06

$逸仙电商(YSG)$这货空的不太爽，跌的太慢，不过确实是个无底洞[得意]

下一站苏州站

2021-03-19

$康特隆(01912)$当之无愧芯片龙头！任尔东西南北风，我自岿然不动。

下一站苏州站

2020-10-14

$Medalist Diversified REIT, Inc.(MDRR)$空！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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21:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"又一场恶战！华尔街机构正大举做空散户抱团的AMC","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141323407","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年年初那一轮散户借着抱团割机构韭菜扬名之后，近几周散户抱团股又掀波澜。\n虽然经历了上周全周的大起大落，但散户抱团股依然取得傲人成绩。截至上周五美股收盘，AMC院线当周累涨逾83%，高斯电子（KOSS","content":"<p>今年年初那一轮散户借着抱团割机构韭菜扬名之后，近几周散户抱团股又掀波澜。</p>\n<p>虽然经历了上周全周的大起大落，但散户抱团股依然取得傲人成绩。截至上周五美股收盘，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>当周累涨逾83%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">高斯电子</a>（KOSS）当周累涨16.8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">Express</a>当周涨幅达到15%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>（GME）涨近12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">黑莓</a>（BB）累计收涨38%。</p>\n<p>不过，抱团股未来的路可能不会平淡。路透根据期权数据的分析以及华尔街基金经理调查表明，华尔街机构投资者已经通过复杂的期权交易，押注散户抱团股下跌。</p>\n<p>机构投资者们使用的是一个叫卖权空头价差（Bear Put Spread）的策略，该策略由卖出一手执行价格低的卖权和买入一手执行价格高的卖权组成。 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n又一场恶战！华尔街机构正大举做空散户抱团的AMC\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 21:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632366><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年年初那一轮散户借着抱团割机构韭菜扬名之后，近几周散户抱团股又掀波澜。\n虽然经历了上周全周的大起大落，但散户抱团股依然取得傲人成绩。截至上周五美股收盘，AMC院线当周累涨逾83%，高斯电子（KOSS）当周累涨16.8%，Express当周涨幅达到15%，游戏驿站（GME）涨近12%，黑莓（BB）累计收涨38%。\n不过，抱团股未来的路可能不会平淡。路透根据期权数据的分析以及华尔街基金经理调查表明，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632366\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537ad0b0f865a392242e7815952d23bd","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632366","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141323407","content_text":"今年年初那一轮散户借着抱团割机构韭菜扬名之后，近几周散户抱团股又掀波澜。\n虽然经历了上周全周的大起大落，但散户抱团股依然取得傲人成绩。截至上周五美股收盘，AMC院线当周累涨逾83%，高斯电子（KOSS）当周累涨16.8%，Express当周涨幅达到15%，游戏驿站（GME）涨近12%，黑莓（BB）累计收涨38%。\n不过，抱团股未来的路可能不会平淡。路透根据期权数据的分析以及华尔街基金经理调查表明，华尔街机构投资者已经通过复杂的期权交易，押注散户抱团股下跌。\n机构投资者们使用的是一个叫卖权空头价差（Bear Put Spread）的策略，该策略由卖出一手执行价格低的卖权和买入一手执行价格高的卖权组成。 采用该策略表明对后市看空，核心目的是以有限的风险获取有限的收益。\n华尔街机构投资者小心行事的原因还在于年初那一轮和散户“硬刚”的博弈吃了败仗。\n今年年初，美国散户在论坛Reddit上集结，通过拉升游戏零售商GameStop股票令专门做空个股的华尔街投资公司损失惨重，导致梅尔文资本等两家投资机构不得不“缴械投降”。\n不过这一次的“战场”从GameStop变成了AMC——散户们在Reddit上的WallStreetBets等论坛大肆宣传该只股票。仅上周，AMC股价大涨83%，年初以来已飙升2160%，令做空者损失近40亿美元。\n期权价格往往因个股波动率上升而上涨，但像上周AMC这样的价格波幅很难持续很长时间，一旦市场情绪降温，股价往往会下跌，机构投资者赌的就是这个逻辑。\n只不过，没有人知道市场情绪何时降温，机构投资者也不知道自己是否有足够多的力量与抱团散户抗衡。而卖权空头价差策略中，如果AMC股价不跌，或者跌幅不及预期，交易者买入看空期权蒙受的损失，很大一部分能被卖出看空期权获得的收益所弥补。\n期权交易所数据也佐证了机构投资者的风向。根据期权分析公司Trade Alert的数据，卖权空头价差策略受到了机构投资者的青睐，占到了本周AMC交易量的22%，较5月平均的13%水平明显上升。\n不过数据也表明，AMC期权交易整体由散户投资者主导，每日期权交易量中只有约10%-15%的占比是以超过100份合约为单位进行交易的，基本上超过100份合约单位被认为是机构投资者所为。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115759020,"gmtCreate":1623031988060,"gmtModify":1623032549271,"author":{"id":"3546809137397115","authorId":"3546809137397115","name":"下一站苏州站","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad19744d5e1ba641130cafd96a159e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546809137397115","authorIdStr":"3546809137397115"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>加加速，搞快点","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>加加速，搞快点","text":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$加加速，搞快点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115759020","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":113328701,"gmtCreate":1622595135403,"gmtModify":1622599412666,"author":{"id":"3546809137397115","authorId":"3546809137397115","name":"下一站苏州站","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad19744d5e1ba641130cafd96a159e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546809137397115","authorIdStr":"3546809137397115"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"啪啪啪","listText":"啪啪啪","text":"啪啪啪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113328701","repostId":"2139458070","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2139458070","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"坚守初心，不随俗流。用一颗匠子心打造一个具有广度、深度、高度、温度的港股交流圈","home_visible":1,"media_name":"丫丫港股圈","id":"1055767104","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953"},"pubTimestamp":1622461988,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2139458070?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-31 19:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中原建业（9982.HK）：好行业、好公司、好价格","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2139458070","media":"丫丫港股圈","summary":"股价重估只会是时间问题","content":"<html><body><div><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>5 月底，港股市场迎来了两只高关注度的新股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a>（2618.HK）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09982\">中原建业</a>（9982.HK）。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>物流不必多说，依靠着母公司京东（9618.HK）和不少明星投资人的光环点燃了市场的认购情绪，仅公开招股就获得 715.61 倍的认购，在 5 月 27 日暗盘交易中京东物流大涨 29.71%。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>而今天上市交易的中原建业，在暗盘交易阶段的表现却与京东物流截然相反，股价下跌 13.3%。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>有趣的是，跟中原建业处于同一赛道的绿城管理（9979.HK）年初至今股价表现异常强势，涨幅已经累计近 60%，超额收益显著。</span><strong><span>也就是说，市场已经认可了地产代建赛道的发展前景。</span></strong></font></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>另一方面，这也就意味着中原建业或许是被市场错杀了。</span></font></strong></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>一、扎实的基本面</span></font></strong></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>1. 好赛道</span></font></strong></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>关于整个代建行业，根据中指研究院报告，中国房地产代建潜在市场预期将继续由 2020 年的约 6.8 亿平方米增长至 2025 年的约 9.1 亿平方米。至 2025 年，中指院预期新签合约建筑面积于 2025 年将达 2.3 亿平方米。</span></font></p><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres1.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a303_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres2.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a304_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>来源：招股书，中指研究院</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>渗透率方面，中指院预计房地产代建市场规模（按新签合约建筑面积计）现阶段占已售商品房建筑面积的 3% 至 5%，2025 年房地产代建市场预计将达 7.9 亿平方米，占中国已售商品房的 14.3%。</span></font></p><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres2.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a305_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>来源：招股书，中指研究院</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>按《中国房地产代建行业发展蓝皮书》给出的测算，预计 2021 年至 2025 年，中国代建市场新订约总建筑面积将</span><strong><span>以 23.5% 的复合年增长率继续增长。</span></strong><span>到 2025 年，国内代建市场容量将达 2.2-2.5 亿平方米，</span><strong><span>在中性假设下，代建市场规模的渗透率将达到 14.9%，代建项目销售额将超 2 万亿。</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><strong><span>依据中原建业招股书来看，中原建业 2020 年度的已售面积 570 万平方米占到代建市场总份额的 29.2%，位居行业第一位；2020 年的新增合约建筑面积约 860 万平方米，占总市场份额的 10.6%，在行业中排名第二。</span></strong><span>以收入计，中原建业 2017 年至 2020 年总合约销售金额</span><strong><span>71.5% 的复合年增长率</span></strong><span>均在国内代建行业中排名第一。</span><strong></strong></font></p><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres1.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a306_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres1.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a307_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>来源：招股书</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>因此，结合中原建业 2021 年开始的基于河南市场、服务大中原战略，和本身河南城镇化率低于全国 4 个百分点，中原建业未来增长空间巨大，距离代建行业的天花板甚远。</span></font></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>2. 好公司</span></font></strong></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><strong><span>高收入、净利润增长。</span></strong><span>中原建业于 2018-2020 年，分别实现营收 6.76 亿元、10.29 亿元、和 11.52 亿元，净利润分别为 4.04 亿元、6.41 亿元和 6.81 亿元。营业收入和净利润均保持高速增长，</span><strong><span>净利率分别为 59.7%、62.3% 及 59.2%。</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><strong><span>充沛的现金流及现金余额。</span></strong><span>于 2018 年 -2020 年，中原建业的经营活动产生的现金流净值分别为 5.19 亿元，6.71 亿元和 6.15 亿元，基本高于每年产生的净利润。公司</span><strong><span>截止 2020 年底的现金及现金等价物也高达 3.85 亿元人民币，堪比现金奶牛的物业赛道。</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>高股息回报。按招股书披露，中原建业上市后，预期每年将向股东派付净利润的大约 50% 作为股息。</span></font></p><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres1.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a308_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>来源：招股书</span></font></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>3. 好价格</span></font></strong></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>中原建业招股定价 3 港币，市盈率（PE）11 左右，和代建第一股绿城管理 2020 年 7 月 IPO 上市的估值基本一致。而绿城管理经历一年多资本市场对代建股的估值修正，</span><strong><span>从最初的市盈率 10 倍左右已经涨到市场认可的接近市盈率 20 倍，</span></strong><span>基本反映了资本市场对代建股的估值，对后期代建股上市提供了可比、公开的市场参考。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>而中原建业并没有借势高价上市，招股定价还保持着绿城管理 2020 年招股的发型估值区间市盈率的 11 倍左右，</span><strong><span>确实给出了投资者较多的折让空间。</span></strong></font></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>二、非基本面的困扰</span></font></strong></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>不过，\" 市场先生 \" 并非总是正确，尤其是市场情绪较弱的时候。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>根据公司公告，中原建业公开发售仅获得 4.99 倍认购，远低于京东物流的数百倍认购。</span><strong><span>原因或许非常简单，一是前文所说的京东物流有母公司和明星投资人的光环，二是京东物流募资体量较大，三是上市日期相近，导致京东物流对新股资金产生虹吸效应。</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>而暗盘表现较差的原因，部分原因则是跟公司上市的方式有关。</span><strong><span>因为公司采用部分介绍上市的方式，导致部分投资人「被动」持有公司股票，而这部分投资人成本极低选择了获利出局。</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><strong><span>但这些非基本面因素的困扰，正是投资人的机会，</span></strong><span>中原建业极好的行业基本面、财务、运营数据与招股发行认购倍数低、暗盘交易价格低形成了先明对比。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><strong></strong><strong><span>三、结语</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>三年前，港股市场对物管企业爱搭不理，但三年间，随着市场认知的逐步提升，部分物管企业的股价涨幅高达 10 倍，实现了业绩和估值的戴维斯双击。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>如今，市场对地产代建赛道的态度是这么的相似。一样万亿级别的市场空间、一样轻资产的商业模式、一样的高速增长、一样早期的低估值……</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>港股市场总是这样，对时间成本的执著接近疯狂，只有看到强烈的赚钱效应才肯认可某个行业、某间企业的价值。但对于估值仅 10 倍市盈率、派息比率 50%、未来业务年复合增长率可能 30% 的中原建业，</span><strong><span>股价重估只会是时间问题。</span></strong></font></p></div></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中原建业（9982.HK）：好行业、好公司、好价格\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1055767104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">丫丫港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-31 19:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>5 月底，港股市场迎来了两只高关注度的新股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a>（2618.HK）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09982\">中原建业</a>（9982.HK）。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>物流不必多说，依靠着母公司京东（9618.HK）和不少明星投资人的光环点燃了市场的认购情绪，仅公开招股就获得 715.61 倍的认购，在 5 月 27 日暗盘交易中京东物流大涨 29.71%。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>而今天上市交易的中原建业，在暗盘交易阶段的表现却与京东物流截然相反，股价下跌 13.3%。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>有趣的是，跟中原建业处于同一赛道的绿城管理（9979.HK）年初至今股价表现异常强势，涨幅已经累计近 60%，超额收益显著。</span><strong><span>也就是说，市场已经认可了地产代建赛道的发展前景。</span></strong></font></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>另一方面，这也就意味着中原建业或许是被市场错杀了。</span></font></strong></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>一、扎实的基本面</span></font></strong></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>1. 好赛道</span></font></strong></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>关于整个代建行业，根据中指研究院报告，中国房地产代建潜在市场预期将继续由 2020 年的约 6.8 亿平方米增长至 2025 年的约 9.1 亿平方米。至 2025 年，中指院预期新签合约建筑面积于 2025 年将达 2.3 亿平方米。</span></font></p><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres1.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a303_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres2.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a304_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>来源：招股书，中指研究院</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>渗透率方面，中指院预计房地产代建市场规模（按新签合约建筑面积计）现阶段占已售商品房建筑面积的 3% 至 5%，2025 年房地产代建市场预计将达 7.9 亿平方米，占中国已售商品房的 14.3%。</span></font></p><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres2.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a305_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>来源：招股书，中指研究院</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>按《中国房地产代建行业发展蓝皮书》给出的测算，预计 2021 年至 2025 年，中国代建市场新订约总建筑面积将</span><strong><span>以 23.5% 的复合年增长率继续增长。</span></strong><span>到 2025 年，国内代建市场容量将达 2.2-2.5 亿平方米，</span><strong><span>在中性假设下，代建市场规模的渗透率将达到 14.9%，代建项目销售额将超 2 万亿。</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><strong><span>依据中原建业招股书来看，中原建业 2020 年度的已售面积 570 万平方米占到代建市场总份额的 29.2%，位居行业第一位；2020 年的新增合约建筑面积约 860 万平方米，占总市场份额的 10.6%，在行业中排名第二。</span></strong><span>以收入计，中原建业 2017 年至 2020 年总合约销售金额</span><strong><span>71.5% 的复合年增长率</span></strong><span>均在国内代建行业中排名第一。</span><strong></strong></font></p><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres1.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a306_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres1.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a307_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>来源：招股书</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>因此，结合中原建业 2021 年开始的基于河南市场、服务大中原战略，和本身河南城镇化率低于全国 4 个百分点，中原建业未来增长空间巨大，距离代建行业的天花板甚远。</span></font></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>2. 好公司</span></font></strong></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><strong><span>高收入、净利润增长。</span></strong><span>中原建业于 2018-2020 年，分别实现营收 6.76 亿元、10.29 亿元、和 11.52 亿元，净利润分别为 4.04 亿元、6.41 亿元和 6.81 亿元。营业收入和净利润均保持高速增长，</span><strong><span>净利率分别为 59.7%、62.3% 及 59.2%。</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><strong><span>充沛的现金流及现金余额。</span></strong><span>于 2018 年 -2020 年，中原建业的经营活动产生的现金流净值分别为 5.19 亿元，6.71 亿元和 6.15 亿元，基本高于每年产生的净利润。公司</span><strong><span>截止 2020 年底的现金及现金等价物也高达 3.85 亿元人民币，堪比现金奶牛的物业赛道。</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>高股息回报。按招股书披露，中原建业上市后，预期每年将向股东派付净利润的大约 50% 作为股息。</span></font></p><div><div><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><img src=\"http://zkres1.myzaker.com/202105/60b4cba48e9f09359b00a308_1024.jpg\"/></font></div></div><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>来源：招股书</span></font></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>3. 好价格</span></font></strong></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>中原建业招股定价 3 港币，市盈率（PE）11 左右，和代建第一股绿城管理 2020 年 7 月 IPO 上市的估值基本一致。而绿城管理经历一年多资本市场对代建股的估值修正，</span><strong><span>从最初的市盈率 10 倍左右已经涨到市场认可的接近市盈率 20 倍，</span></strong><span>基本反映了资本市场对代建股的估值，对后期代建股上市提供了可比、公开的市场参考。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>而中原建业并没有借势高价上市，招股定价还保持着绿城管理 2020 年招股的发型估值区间市盈率的 11 倍左右，</span><strong><span>确实给出了投资者较多的折让空间。</span></strong></font></p><p><strong><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>二、非基本面的困扰</span></font></strong></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>不过，\" 市场先生 \" 并非总是正确，尤其是市场情绪较弱的时候。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>根据公司公告，中原建业公开发售仅获得 4.99 倍认购，远低于京东物流的数百倍认购。</span><strong><span>原因或许非常简单，一是前文所说的京东物流有母公司和明星投资人的光环，二是京东物流募资体量较大，三是上市日期相近，导致京东物流对新股资金产生虹吸效应。</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>而暗盘表现较差的原因，部分原因则是跟公司上市的方式有关。</span><strong><span>因为公司采用部分介绍上市的方式，导致部分投资人「被动」持有公司股票，而这部分投资人成本极低选择了获利出局。</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><strong><span>但这些非基本面因素的困扰，正是投资人的机会，</span></strong><span>中原建业极好的行业基本面、财务、运营数据与招股发行认购倍数低、暗盘交易价格低形成了先明对比。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><strong></strong><strong><span>三、结语</span></strong></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>三年前，港股市场对物管企业爱搭不理，但三年间，随着市场认知的逐步提升，部分物管企业的股价涨幅高达 10 倍，实现了业绩和估值的戴维斯双击。</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>如今，市场对地产代建赛道的态度是这么的相似。一样万亿级别的市场空间、一样轻资产的商业模式、一样的高速增长、一样早期的低估值……</span></font></p><p><font face=\"Microsoft Yahei\"><span>港股市场总是这样，对时间成本的执著接近疯狂，只有看到强烈的赚钱效应才肯认可某个行业、某间企业的价值。但对于估值仅 10 倍市盈率、派息比率 50%、未来业务年复合增长率可能 30% 的中原建业，</span><strong><span>股价重估只会是时间问题。</span></strong></font></p></div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01d25093422dacef8950fd95a9b5e14d","relate_stocks":{"09982":"中原建业"},"source_url":"http://admin.yyhkstock.com/mobile_detail?id=2237","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2139458070","content_text":"5 月底，港股市场迎来了两只高关注度的新股，京东物流（2618.HK）和中原建业（9982.HK）。京东物流不必多说，依靠着母公司京东（9618.HK）和不少明星投资人的光环点燃了市场的认购情绪，仅公开招股就获得 715.61 倍的认购，在 5 月 27 日暗盘交易中京东物流大涨 29.71%。而今天上市交易的中原建业，在暗盘交易阶段的表现却与京东物流截然相反，股价下跌 13.3%。有趣的是，跟中原建业处于同一赛道的绿城管理（9979.HK）年初至今股价表现异常强势，涨幅已经累计近 60%，超额收益显著。也就是说，市场已经认可了地产代建赛道的发展前景。另一方面，这也就意味着中原建业或许是被市场错杀了。一、扎实的基本面1. 好赛道关于整个代建行业，根据中指研究院报告，中国房地产代建潜在市场预期将继续由 2020 年的约 6.8 亿平方米增长至 2025 年的约 9.1 亿平方米。至 2025 年，中指院预期新签合约建筑面积于 2025 年将达 2.3 亿平方米。来源：招股书，中指研究院渗透率方面，中指院预计房地产代建市场规模（按新签合约建筑面积计）现阶段占已售商品房建筑面积的 3% 至 5%，2025 年房地产代建市场预计将达 7.9 亿平方米，占中国已售商品房的 14.3%。来源：招股书，中指研究院按《中国房地产代建行业发展蓝皮书》给出的测算，预计 2021 年至 2025 年，中国代建市场新订约总建筑面积将以 23.5% 的复合年增长率继续增长。到 2025 年，国内代建市场容量将达 2.2-2.5 亿平方米，在中性假设下，代建市场规模的渗透率将达到 14.9%，代建项目销售额将超 2 万亿。依据中原建业招股书来看，中原建业 2020 年度的已售面积 570 万平方米占到代建市场总份额的 29.2%，位居行业第一位；2020 年的新增合约建筑面积约 860 万平方米，占总市场份额的 10.6%，在行业中排名第二。以收入计，中原建业 2017 年至 2020 年总合约销售金额71.5% 的复合年增长率均在国内代建行业中排名第一。来源：招股书因此，结合中原建业 2021 年开始的基于河南市场、服务大中原战略，和本身河南城镇化率低于全国 4 个百分点，中原建业未来增长空间巨大，距离代建行业的天花板甚远。2. 好公司高收入、净利润增长。中原建业于 2018-2020 年，分别实现营收 6.76 亿元、10.29 亿元、和 11.52 亿元，净利润分别为 4.04 亿元、6.41 亿元和 6.81 亿元。营业收入和净利润均保持高速增长，净利率分别为 59.7%、62.3% 及 59.2%。充沛的现金流及现金余额。于 2018 年 -2020 年，中原建业的经营活动产生的现金流净值分别为 5.19 亿元，6.71 亿元和 6.15 亿元，基本高于每年产生的净利润。公司截止 2020 年底的现金及现金等价物也高达 3.85 亿元人民币，堪比现金奶牛的物业赛道。高股息回报。按招股书披露，中原建业上市后，预期每年将向股东派付净利润的大约 50% 作为股息。来源：招股书3. 好价格中原建业招股定价 3 港币，市盈率（PE）11 左右，和代建第一股绿城管理 2020 年 7 月 IPO 上市的估值基本一致。而绿城管理经历一年多资本市场对代建股的估值修正，从最初的市盈率 10 倍左右已经涨到市场认可的接近市盈率 20 倍，基本反映了资本市场对代建股的估值，对后期代建股上市提供了可比、公开的市场参考。而中原建业并没有借势高价上市，招股定价还保持着绿城管理 2020 年招股的发型估值区间市盈率的 11 倍左右，确实给出了投资者较多的折让空间。二、非基本面的困扰不过，\" 市场先生 \" 并非总是正确，尤其是市场情绪较弱的时候。根据公司公告，中原建业公开发售仅获得 4.99 倍认购，远低于京东物流的数百倍认购。原因或许非常简单，一是前文所说的京东物流有母公司和明星投资人的光环，二是京东物流募资体量较大，三是上市日期相近，导致京东物流对新股资金产生虹吸效应。而暗盘表现较差的原因，部分原因则是跟公司上市的方式有关。因为公司采用部分介绍上市的方式，导致部分投资人「被动」持有公司股票，而这部分投资人成本极低选择了获利出局。但这些非基本面因素的困扰，正是投资人的机会，中原建业极好的行业基本面、财务、运营数据与招股发行认购倍数低、暗盘交易价格低形成了先明对比。三、结语三年前，港股市场对物管企业爱搭不理，但三年间，随着市场认知的逐步提升，部分物管企业的股价涨幅高达 10 倍，实现了业绩和估值的戴维斯双击。如今，市场对地产代建赛道的态度是这么的相似。一样万亿级别的市场空间、一样轻资产的商业模式、一样的高速增长、一样早期的低估值……港股市场总是这样，对时间成本的执著接近疯狂，只有看到强烈的赚钱效应才肯认可某个行业、某间企业的价值。但对于估值仅 10 倍市盈率、派息比率 50%、未来业务年复合增长率可能 30% 的中原建业，股价重估只会是时间问题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09982":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135716280,"gmtCreate":1622184016340,"gmtModify":1622184016340,"author":{"id":"3546809137397115","authorId":"3546809137397115","name":"下一站苏州站","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad19744d5e1ba641130cafd96a159e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546809137397115","authorIdStr":"3546809137397115"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a>抖落泥巴，准备上路了","listText":"<a 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