铁韭谨慎观望的个人主页 - 老虎社区

铁韭谨慎观望

铁韭谨慎观望

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铁韭谨慎观望

2022-01-03

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$可以开始谨慎抄底了

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-12-20

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴会变成下一个中石油，立贴为证。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-12-15

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$看跌到发行价65美元

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-12-04

中国人的创意搞不了内容，你信不信？

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-09-23

打水飘

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-09-17

$高途(GOTU)$建议高途与新东方换股吸收合并，整合业务，取长补短。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-09-17

$新东方(EDU)$建议新东方换股吸收合并高途，整合业务，取长补短。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-07-23

$新东方(EDU)$纪念一下，今天把一年多以来赚的85%的利润归零了。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-07-22

$滴滴(DIDI)$看到有这么多打算长期持有的，那么应该肯定还会跌

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-07-16

$高途(GOTU)$别墨迹，跌个30%看看

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-06-30

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$我把名字从铁韭永不做空（意思就是最多），改成了铁韭谨慎观望（意思就是做多不超过30%仓位）。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-06-22

买买买

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-06-17

$新东方(EDU)$开启震荡墨迹之路

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-06-07

就捶你了，咋滴

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-05-14

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$有希望成为下一个中国石油

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-02-08

看来还得涨

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-01-21

只要还有一人在质疑，那么就涨到他怀疑人生。

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-01-21

只要还有一人在质疑，那么就涨到他怀疑人生。

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-12-15

$道琼斯(.DJI)$我就是来露一下名字的

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-12-04

那么肯定还能继续涨

“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-04 19:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114232787","content_text":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。\n不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。\n威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”\n这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。\n美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”\n英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。\n在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。\n低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。\n反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。\n经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。\n到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":925874553,"gmtCreate":1587987586972,"gmtModify":1704365958054,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>慢慢补到了50%仓位，接下来看明天的表现了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>慢慢补到了50%仓位，接下来看明天的表现了。","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$慢慢补到了50%仓位，接下来看明天的表现了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0c146956ebd79fbbfd0bec0b901eae","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":38,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925874553","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3490074433062883","authorId":"3490074433062883","name":"我是昵称","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c29db5a91e7d800235ae016bb5de7f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3490074433062883","idStr":"3490074433062883"},"content":"我觉得这股到2以下没什么压力","text":"我觉得这股到2以下没什么压力","html":"我觉得这股到2以下没什么压力"},{"author":{"id":"3513087929783395","authorId":"3513087929783395","name":"有目标价位再下手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82106315b7af81ef80062abaa392107a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3513087929783395","idStr":"3513087929783395"},"content":"先搞清楚这个基金在投资什么再说吧，跟踪的并不是原油价格","text":"先搞清楚这个基金在投资什么再说吧，跟踪的并不是原油价格","html":"先搞清楚这个基金在投资什么再说吧，跟踪的并不是原油价格"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":175457423,"gmtCreate":1627047737562,"gmtModify":1627047737562,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;坚信汽车能喝水就跑","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;坚信汽车能喝水就跑","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$[财迷] 坚信汽车能喝水就跑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925696752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550041785944313","authorId":"3550041785944313","name":"简简单单de","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3550041785944313","idStr":"3550041785944313"},"content":"兄弟，劝你谨慎，我亏了50%后认清现实跑了[流泪][流泪][流泪]","text":"兄弟，劝你谨慎，我亏了50%后认清现实跑了[流泪][流泪][流泪]","html":"兄弟，劝你谨慎，我亏了50%后认清现实跑了[流泪][流泪][流泪]"},{"author":{"id":"3550160151674189","authorId":"3550160151674189","name":"心若止水无伤","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3550160151674189","idStr":"3550160151674189"},"content":"这次亏太多，以后油价升回去它换期升水成本也会很高，入场得早抄底的怕是回不了本了，赶紧韭菜们来抄底，结果是为美国原油市场托底接盘了，看看wti和布油的持仓数差距，现在看来，上周末的触底回弹大涨就是uso为主托底拉起来的，现在刚宣布要5月1号展期就全面暴跌，尤其wti06，韭菜们还是别买了，套了的不行就割肉吧。别以为只有a股会让股民为国接盘，美股也是一样的啊，你以为你抄底美原油呢，其实人家让你来接盘的","text":"这次亏太多，以后油价升回去它换期升水成本也会很高，入场得早抄底的怕是回不了本了，赶紧韭菜们来抄底，结果是为美国原油市场托底接盘了，看看wti和布油的持仓数差距，现在看来，上周末的触底回弹大涨就是uso为主托底拉起来的，现在刚宣布要5月1号展期就全面暴跌，尤其wti06，韭菜们还是别买了，套了的不行就割肉吧。别以为只有a股会让股民为国接盘，美股也是一样的啊，你以为你抄底美原油呢，其实人家让你来接盘的","html":"这次亏太多，以后油价升回去它换期升水成本也会很高，入场得早抄底的怕是回不了本了，赶紧韭菜们来抄底，结果是为美国原油市场托底接盘了，看看wti和布油的持仓数差距，现在看来，上周末的触底回弹大涨就是uso为主托底拉起来的，现在刚宣布要5月1号展期就全面暴跌，尤其wti06，韭菜们还是别买了，套了的不行就割肉吧。别以为只有a股会让股民为国接盘，美股也是一样的啊，你以为你抄底美原油呢，其实人家让你来接盘的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307559107,"gmtCreate":1605605143609,"gmtModify":1703838519388,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>为什么价格比昨天收盘价低，但是却显示是上涨的？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>为什么价格比昨天收盘价低，但是却显示是上涨的？","text":"$辉瑞(PFE)$为什么价格比昨天收盘价低，但是却显示是上涨的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307559107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458406104219214","authorId":"3458406104219214","name":"hanksluo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfc22b979fb962056db40c807ea1332","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3458406104219214","idStr":"3458406104219214"},"content":"应该是PFE新成立的子公司VTRS拆分出股票，算上这部分是上涨的","text":"应该是PFE新成立的子公司VTRS拆分出股票，算上这部分是上涨的","html":"应该是PFE新成立的子公司VTRS拆分出股票，算上这部分是上涨的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922940914,"gmtCreate":1587427139938,"gmtModify":1704364117352,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2005\">$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$</a>请问大佬，负值买入怎么算？是不是-40的价位我买入，相当于账户多了40美元？这不可思议啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2005\">$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$</a>请问大佬，负值买入怎么算？是不是-40的价位我买入，相当于账户多了40美元？这不可思议啊","text":"$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$请问大佬，负值买入怎么算？是不是-40的价位我买入，相当于账户多了40美元？这不可思议啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922940914","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693686080,"gmtCreate":1640013389546,"gmtModify":1640013389546,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>阿里巴巴会变成下一个中石油，立贴为证。","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a>昨天收盘是18，今天怎么变成23了？新韭菜求助","listText":"<a 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