自由引导我的个人主页 - 老虎社区

自由引导我

自由引导我

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IP属地：浙江

28关注

2粉丝

6主题

0勋章

自由引导我

2021-01-27

$RLX科技(RLX)$我开始慌了[生气]

自由引导我

2022-03-11

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$删了老虎，三年后见！88

自由引导我

2021-08-05

$RLX科技(RLX)$[喷血]

自由引导我

2021-02-02

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$基本面很好，市场情绪不高。。。

自由引导我

2021-01-12

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$奈飞怎么了？？？

自由引导我

2021-01-04

空仓的说是泡沫，满仓的说是革命....

抱歉，原内容已删除

自由引导我

2020-12-28

$GRAYSCALE BITCOIN CASH TR(BCHG)$比特币上2.6万美元了，怎么灰度反而大跌了？

自由引导我

2021-01-07

$3M(MMM)$为啥大跌[流泪]

自由引导我

2021-09-27

$探索传播(DISCA)$是不是没救了？

自由引导我

2020-10-30

$陆金所(LU)$会不会是下一个$宜人金科(YRD)$

陆金所开盘“破发”，盘初跌幅超11%

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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11:42","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"蚂蚁暂缓上市救了无数股民，从这件事聊聊排雷技巧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159579603","media":"唐书房","summary":"煮熟的鸭子，居然张开翅膀，嘎嘎嘎地飞走了。","content":"<p><b>近日，舆论热点是蚂蚁的创新与监管的博弈。很少有人注意到，监管部门一纸文件胜造七级浮屠，从蚂蚁刨出的陷阱里，挽救韭菜无数。</b></p><p>中签蚂蚁的新股缴款开始退还，这场跌宕起伏的资本大戏，似乎很快就要落下帷幕了。</p><p>可以预计，伴随着很快到来的下一个刷屏热点，马云牵着他的蚂蚁，悄悄地就退场了。</p><p>从8月25日递交上市申请，到9月18日获准上市，满打满算也就用了25天（19个工作日），蚂蚁集团借此创下中国股市“史上最快IPO”记录。</p><p>随后便是以153.69倍市盈率的估值定价发行，最终以人民币68.8元/股（港币80元/股）合计发行AH股约38.4亿股，相当于出让了蚂蚁集团12.4%的股份，换来约2650亿，估值超过2.1万亿。</p><p>本来周四就应该上市交易的。可以想象，上市第一天蚂蚁的市值就将超过茅台，成为A股第一巨头，一只巨无霸蚂蚁。</p><p>可惜，马云或许是一时得意忘形，或许是意图利用自己的影响力左右舆论，在10月24日的金融峰会上炮轰监管。</p><p>结果事情峰回路转，煮熟的鸭子，居然张开翅膀，嘎嘎嘎地飞走了<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e0ff27051304fa524aeb148b478c51\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>阿里内部那些正计划怎么花销那1300多亿股权激励的巨富们，一定和杭州的豪宅炒家们一样失落——虽然没有披露享受这1300多亿股权激励的具体人数，但即便按照蚂蚁集团总计约1.7万名员工平摊，人均也超过800万元。</p><p>互联网的舆论热点，集中在监管和创新的冲突问题上，很少有人注意到这件事情背后隐藏的诡异，也很少有人注意到那个给数百万投资者挖好的巨坑。</p><p>我们看到的事情，发生的顺序是这酱紫的：</p><p>①9月18日，蚂蚁获准上市；→②10月24日，马云在外滩金融峰会发表演讲，炮轰银行是当铺思维，巴塞尔协议是老年人俱乐部；→</p><p>③11月2日，人民银行、证监会、银保监会、外管局联合约谈蚂蚁实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明；→</p><p>④11月2日，人民银行和银保监会联合发布《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法（征求意见稿）》（下称《暂行办法》）；→</p><p>⑤11月3日，上交所宣布蚂蚁集团暂缓上市；→⑥11月4日，H股冻结资金开始退款；→⑦11月6日，A股中签新股认购款开始退款。</p><p>事情的顺序仿佛是：上市成功，得意忘形，批评监管，遭到报复。</p><p>但是，用马云在外滩金融峰会的演讲内容，对照9天后公开披露的《暂行办法》内容，我们会发现，事情的顺序可能不是表面看上去的样子。</p><p>马云10月24日炮轰的目标，就是11月2日公开的这份《暂行办法》。</p><p>这份《暂行办法》如果最终落实，将对于蚂蚁集团的业务构成重大打击，其核心主要是两条（其他打击还有，只是这两条比较致命）：</p><p><b>第十二条：经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司通过银行借款、股东借款等非标准化融资形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的1倍；通过发行债券、资产证券化产品等标准化债权类资产形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的4倍。</b></p><p><b>第十五条第三款：在单笔联合贷款中，经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司的出资比例不得低于30%。</b></p><p>为什么这两条比较致命呢？</p><p>简单的说，蚂蚁的业务，就是利用自己所掌控的大数据，发放小微企业贷款及消费贷。</p><p>目前总规模约2万亿，其中小微企业贷占比约20%，消费贷（我们熟悉的借呗、花呗）占比约80%。</p><p>这两万亿资金从哪里来呢？</p><p>属于蚂蚁集团自有资本金的，大约占比不到2%，其余98%左右的资金主要是两个来源：</p><p>第一，通过联合贷款的方式，利用银行或其他金融机构的资金；</p><p>第二，以资产证券化的方式，上述债权为抵押，发行理财产品、信托产品募集资金。</p><p>在传统的银行放贷活动中，银行收取的利率不会超过7%——以行业翘楚招商银行的2020年半年报数据为例，对公贷款平均利率4.14%，对私贷款平均利率6.1%。</p><p>而蚂蚁集团通过借呗花呗等渠道发放的贷款，可以做到利率15%~24%。</p><p>所以蚂蚁只需要分出不到一半利息收入，就足以让银行掌柜们捧上资金在门口排队叫马爸爸。</p><p>以联合贷款为例，按照蚂蚁IPO文件数据，蚂蚁是以360亿出资，撬动了1.8万亿联合贷款。</p><p>假设我们以15%利率，蚂蚁和出资银行五五分账计算，蚂蚁就是用360亿本金，一年赚18000×7.5%=1350亿利息。</p><p>这样的生意给150倍市盈率可以理解，毕竟投资者可能畅想明年有了1350+360=1710亿本金，或许会赚来几千亿利息，届时估值就不高了。</p><p>资产证券化也是一样。</p><p>蚂蚁放贷100亿，然后用这100亿债权抵押，发行90亿收益率6%的理财产品然后放贷90亿；用这90亿债权抵押，发行81亿收益率6%的理财产品……</p><p>循环滚动，很容易就可以撬动千亿规模，高杠杆之下回报率自然高的吓人。</p><p>然而，监管部门看到的是，如此高的杠杆叠加，一旦底层债权的偿还出现问题（比如你花呗借呗剁手痛快，结果公司裁员，突然失去收入，无力偿还），其连锁反应，就是2008年美国次贷危机的中国版。</p><p>届时曾经吃的脑满肠肥的蚂蚁们，还不是照样两手一摊，要求政府出面救助，否则各大银行真可能会亲自死给人民看，导致整个金融系统瘫痪。</p><p>甚至届时始作俑者轻飘飘地就可以抢占道德制高点：能不能先不急着划分责任，金融体系正在崩溃，人民财富正在灰飞烟灭。让我们携手先拯救国家，拯救人民吧！</p><p>Yes，you can，政府怎么办？《暂行办法》就是来堵这个窟窿的。</p><p>通过非标融资（银行借款、股东借款等）上限不得超过净资产的1倍；通过标准化产品融资（债券、资产证券化等）上限不得超过其净资产的4倍；联合贷款中出资比例不得低于30%——三招全部瞄准着杠杆倍数的七寸。</p><p>最终蚂蚁的贷款规模必须受到蚂蚁自有资金的限制，蚂蚁的业务和利润毫无疑问都将受到巨大打击。</p><p>马云的演讲，炮轰的就是这些“落后的”当铺思维，“僵化的”老年人俱乐部规则。</p><p>创新和监管的边界和关系，话题很深，需要的专业知识超出了老唐的能力范围，留给专家和学者去辩论吧——坦率说，我站在监管一边，但我不敢保证我的看法一定对——我们就看我们能力范围内的事情就好。</p><p>现在，先不论监管和创新谁对谁错。让我们回头想<b>三个简单而可怕的问题</b>：</p><p>①这份《暂行办法》如果实施，对于蚂蚁集团的经营是重大利空，这是无疑的。对不？</p><p>②我们知道，我国相关行业监管文件出台前，都会提前小范围征求业内看法、专家意见，通过征集意见进行讨论和完善。</p><p>这也是马云在《暂行办法》公开披露前，就能够以它为目标开炮的前提条件。</p><p>如果此推论属实，意味着在《暂行办法》发布前，马云及蚂蚁的核心管理层已经知道公司可能会面临巨大利空打击。对吧？</p><p>③接下来的事情，就细思极恐了。马云及蚂蚁管理层怎么处理这可能的利空呢？</p><p>第一是保密——这无可厚非。</p><p>第二是动用一切力量，以创纪录的速度上市，以蚂蚁将继续以过去的模式扩张和获利为假设前提，对企业进行估值，给新股定价。</p><p>他们做到了，他们真的做到了。赶在监管层对社会公开《暂行办法》前，就完成了新股发行。</p><p>甚至我怀疑，原本《暂行办法》计划的公开时间要更晚些。</p><p>只是因为11月4日蚂蚁的新股将上市交易，届时可能就生米熟饭无可挽回了，所以才被迫于11月2日匆忙公开。</p><p>如果这个推论属实，我们隔着屏幕就可以猜出蚂蚁内部会议上的讲话。</p><p>马云先生可能是这样慷慨激昂地发表演说——以下言论，纯属虚构。如有雷同，实属巧合：</p><p><b>兄弟们，加油啊，拼命啊，一定要抢在《暂行办法》公开前，将那些瓜娃子的钱拿到我们手上。</b></p><p><b>否则，一旦他们知道我们以后不可能用以前的方式去赚钱了，他们绝不可能接受按2.1万亿的估值出价！</b></p><p><b>兄弟们，这是生死攸关的时刻，我们必须要发扬红军飞夺泸定桥的精神，与时间赛跑。</b></p><p><b>只要抢在瓜娃子们知道监管规则巨变之前，顺利登陆资本市场，就是蚂蚁人的伟大丰碑，是阿里人的伟大胜利。</b></p><p><b>只要我们登陆成功，各位不仅有机会兑现千亿股权激励，豪宅豪车美女统统滴有、大大滴有。</b></p><p><b>更关键的是，我们将在《暂行办法》出台前获得两千多亿的资本金，从而在未来更严格的资本要求下，取得相对同行的碾压式优势。</b></p><p><b>兄弟们，几千亿面前，睡觉太奢侈了。我要求你们放弃996，直接007。</b></p><p><b>你们每个人的名字，都将在蚂蚁的史册里闪闪发光。兄弟们，你人生里最大的一次历史机遇摆在你的面前了，抓不抓的住猪，就看你的了！</b></p><p>哗哗哗……雷鸣般的掌声持续了6688秒<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00591cd10d29240d23e0e432c72d560e\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>至于上市成功后，监管意见出台，当投资者发现蚂蚁根本不可能再像过去那样，以极少的自有资本去赚取高额利润时，股价暴跌到哪里，那就是瓜娃子股民自己的事情了。</p><p>今天，这种作法不触犯刑法吗？我不懂，但觉着应该有一条法律来界定。</p><p>法律如果不管，我们只能靠自己照顾自己——又想起小时候听老父亲说的那句朴素理解：社会就这样，主义自己拿，这就叫社会主义<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e85624dd67e5295e79dc1f11b317f220\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>这件事带给我的经验就是：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596d782e6ba98a04ba9eb3e4eaa31566\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"635\"></p><p>这不奇怪，早在两年前，有朋友在书房问我为什么投腾讯不投阿里，我当时就是回答“因为不喜欢马云”。</p><p>然后一位朋友在留言区追问为什么，老唐当时回复如下：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8105543100b99f225a8eff55576cbf1\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"776\"></p><p>什么样的道德观、价值观和世界观，决定了不同的人在同样的选择下，会做出的什么选择。</p><p>一家企业管理团队的历史决策所依据的道德观和价值观，绝对是我们排除企业的重要依据之一。</p><p>这或许可能让我们错过牛股，但同样会保护我们避免掉进一些可怕的陷阱。</p><p>由此，老唐又联想到书房里的一个历史案例，同样是用管理层行为排除掉的一个企业。</p><p>上周周记下面，好几位朋友询问上海机场。老唐瞄了眼，有点兴趣——顺带说一句，我今天66.66买了1000股观察仓。</p><p>然后想起三年前曾经点杀过另一间机场：白云机场（链接在此：<b>《岭上白云有疑点（上）》《岭上白云有疑点（下）》，发表于2017年10月21日</b>）</p><p>翻了翻旧文，挺有意思的。</p><p>当时白云机场270亿市值，市场一片看好之声，基本预测2018年净利润在17~20亿之间，年产自由现金25~30亿，2018年之后确定增长，270亿市值“严重低估”。</p><p>老唐当时记录大家看好的理由和预测：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65e6fd10615ee00b05c0f518ca901c5d\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"1034\"></p><p>老唐当时只花了大半天时间阅读财报，我没有去关注它的利润和增长，而是从管理层的一个行为观察，发现事情可能不像大家预想的那么乐观，遂成文泼下两大桶+五小杯冷水。</p><p>其中第一桶冷水，就是通过白云机场发行可转债以及控股股东和管理层对可转债的处理方式，得出大股东和管理层不看好白云机场的未来，认为270亿市值高估的结论。</p><p>详细论证过程，我就不在这里重复了，感兴趣的朋友直接阅读《白云之上有疑点》上下篇即可（向书房发送“机场”即可提取）——特意强调：尤其不要错过留言区。实时记录了当时的市场气氛和多空观点，我觉着比文章本身的价值更大<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e99ba5f192e4e7d8118db610186d0d\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>这个大半天得出的结论，相比那些深入挖掘企业资产负债及利润增长的研究报告，结果如何呢？</p><p>沾时间这把无情刻刀的光，今天我们可以用上帝视角，回看白云机场的经营情况了：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/315c1a4d27b85f17a2725ed74d75c80e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"640\"></p><p>疫情冲击下的2020年，咱们排除不看。就看正常经营的2018和2019年。</p><p>2018年不仅没有17~20亿，反而同比下跌约30%，只有11亿——考虑到当时已经是2017年10月底，对2018年的预测偏差，恐怕只能用脱靶二字评价了。</p><p>至于2019年的确定性增长，更是没有看见，净利润进一步下滑至10亿。</p><p>而且还不能推给意外，因为扣非净利润数据趋势是一致的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b21dd1acfdf5aa2d92e75999d7e84efe\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"></p><p>三年后的今天，白云机场市值306亿。也还不错，涨了13%，年化收益率约4%出头，还是比存银行收益高。</p><p>但是，这13%的涨幅，是市盈率从17倍变成30多倍赠送的，企业经营本身是负面贡献。</p><p>上述两个例子，就是老唐今天想说的：通过观察核心股东或管理层的行为，可以让我们规避一些投资道路上的陷阱。</p><p>当然，必须要强调的是：以管理层的表现作为排除企业的依据，只是意味着你躲开了某些心生邪念的管理层，被算计的概率<b>大大降低</b>。</p><p>但，它并不意味着这些管理层掌控的公司股票不会上涨。</p><p>最有说服的反例恐怕就是：老唐通过此秘方，成功地躲开了泸州老窖这只7年14倍的大牛股<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8adf2281fb5c60ac1b1450cec584d4\" tg-width=\"64\" 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background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蚂蚁暂缓上市救了无数股民，从这件事聊聊排雷技巧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-07 11:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_1tZb0_suNYx7lG-EiVtqQ><strong>唐书房</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，舆论热点是蚂蚁的创新与监管的博弈。很少有人注意到，监管部门一纸文件胜造七级浮屠，从蚂蚁刨出的陷阱里，挽救韭菜无数。中签蚂蚁的新股缴款开始退还，这场跌宕起伏的资本大戏，似乎很快就要落下帷幕了。可以预计，伴随着很快到来的下一个刷屏热点，马云牵着他的蚂蚁，悄悄地就退场了。从8月25日递交上市申请，到9月18日获准上市，满打满算也就用了25天（19个工作日），蚂蚁集团借此创下中国股市“史上最快IPO...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_1tZb0_suNYx7lG-EiVtqQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92890b55f8b70709c23ff81ddac0242d","relate_stocks":{"06688":"蚂蚁集团"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_1tZb0_suNYx7lG-EiVtqQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159579603","content_text":"近日，舆论热点是蚂蚁的创新与监管的博弈。很少有人注意到，监管部门一纸文件胜造七级浮屠，从蚂蚁刨出的陷阱里，挽救韭菜无数。中签蚂蚁的新股缴款开始退还，这场跌宕起伏的资本大戏，似乎很快就要落下帷幕了。可以预计，伴随着很快到来的下一个刷屏热点，马云牵着他的蚂蚁，悄悄地就退场了。从8月25日递交上市申请，到9月18日获准上市，满打满算也就用了25天（19个工作日），蚂蚁集团借此创下中国股市“史上最快IPO”记录。随后便是以153.69倍市盈率的估值定价发行，最终以人民币68.8元/股（港币80元/股）合计发行AH股约38.4亿股，相当于出让了蚂蚁集团12.4%的股份，换来约2650亿，估值超过2.1万亿。本来周四就应该上市交易的。可以想象，上市第一天蚂蚁的市值就将超过茅台，成为A股第一巨头，一只巨无霸蚂蚁。可惜，马云或许是一时得意忘形，或许是意图利用自己的影响力左右舆论，在10月24日的金融峰会上炮轰监管。结果事情峰回路转，煮熟的鸭子，居然张开翅膀，嘎嘎嘎地飞走了阿里内部那些正计划怎么花销那1300多亿股权激励的巨富们，一定和杭州的豪宅炒家们一样失落——虽然没有披露享受这1300多亿股权激励的具体人数，但即便按照蚂蚁集团总计约1.7万名员工平摊，人均也超过800万元。互联网的舆论热点，集中在监管和创新的冲突问题上，很少有人注意到这件事情背后隐藏的诡异，也很少有人注意到那个给数百万投资者挖好的巨坑。我们看到的事情，发生的顺序是这酱紫的：①9月18日，蚂蚁获准上市；→②10月24日，马云在外滩金融峰会发表演讲，炮轰银行是当铺思维，巴塞尔协议是老年人俱乐部；→③11月2日，人民银行、证监会、银保监会、外管局联合约谈蚂蚁实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明；→④11月2日，人民银行和银保监会联合发布《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法（征求意见稿）》（下称《暂行办法》）；→⑤11月3日，上交所宣布蚂蚁集团暂缓上市；→⑥11月4日，H股冻结资金开始退款；→⑦11月6日，A股中签新股认购款开始退款。事情的顺序仿佛是：上市成功，得意忘形，批评监管，遭到报复。但是，用马云在外滩金融峰会的演讲内容，对照9天后公开披露的《暂行办法》内容，我们会发现，事情的顺序可能不是表面看上去的样子。马云10月24日炮轰的目标，就是11月2日公开的这份《暂行办法》。这份《暂行办法》如果最终落实，将对于蚂蚁集团的业务构成重大打击，其核心主要是两条（其他打击还有，只是这两条比较致命）：第十二条：经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司通过银行借款、股东借款等非标准化融资形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的1倍；通过发行债券、资产证券化产品等标准化债权类资产形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的4倍。第十五条第三款：在单笔联合贷款中，经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司的出资比例不得低于30%。为什么这两条比较致命呢？简单的说，蚂蚁的业务，就是利用自己所掌控的大数据，发放小微企业贷款及消费贷。目前总规模约2万亿，其中小微企业贷占比约20%，消费贷（我们熟悉的借呗、花呗）占比约80%。这两万亿资金从哪里来呢？属于蚂蚁集团自有资本金的，大约占比不到2%，其余98%左右的资金主要是两个来源：第一，通过联合贷款的方式，利用银行或其他金融机构的资金；第二，以资产证券化的方式，上述债权为抵押，发行理财产品、信托产品募集资金。在传统的银行放贷活动中，银行收取的利率不会超过7%——以行业翘楚招商银行的2020年半年报数据为例，对公贷款平均利率4.14%，对私贷款平均利率6.1%。而蚂蚁集团通过借呗花呗等渠道发放的贷款，可以做到利率15%~24%。所以蚂蚁只需要分出不到一半利息收入，就足以让银行掌柜们捧上资金在门口排队叫马爸爸。以联合贷款为例，按照蚂蚁IPO文件数据，蚂蚁是以360亿出资，撬动了1.8万亿联合贷款。假设我们以15%利率，蚂蚁和出资银行五五分账计算，蚂蚁就是用360亿本金，一年赚18000×7.5%=1350亿利息。这样的生意给150倍市盈率可以理解，毕竟投资者可能畅想明年有了1350+360=1710亿本金，或许会赚来几千亿利息，届时估值就不高了。资产证券化也是一样。蚂蚁放贷100亿，然后用这100亿债权抵押，发行90亿收益率6%的理财产品然后放贷90亿；用这90亿债权抵押，发行81亿收益率6%的理财产品……循环滚动，很容易就可以撬动千亿规模，高杠杆之下回报率自然高的吓人。然而，监管部门看到的是，如此高的杠杆叠加，一旦底层债权的偿还出现问题（比如你花呗借呗剁手痛快，结果公司裁员，突然失去收入，无力偿还），其连锁反应，就是2008年美国次贷危机的中国版。届时曾经吃的脑满肠肥的蚂蚁们，还不是照样两手一摊，要求政府出面救助，否则各大银行真可能会亲自死给人民看，导致整个金融系统瘫痪。甚至届时始作俑者轻飘飘地就可以抢占道德制高点：能不能先不急着划分责任，金融体系正在崩溃，人民财富正在灰飞烟灭。让我们携手先拯救国家，拯救人民吧！Yes，you can，政府怎么办？《暂行办法》就是来堵这个窟窿的。通过非标融资（银行借款、股东借款等）上限不得超过净资产的1倍；通过标准化产品融资（债券、资产证券化等）上限不得超过其净资产的4倍；联合贷款中出资比例不得低于30%——三招全部瞄准着杠杆倍数的七寸。最终蚂蚁的贷款规模必须受到蚂蚁自有资金的限制，蚂蚁的业务和利润毫无疑问都将受到巨大打击。马云的演讲，炮轰的就是这些“落后的”当铺思维，“僵化的”老年人俱乐部规则。创新和监管的边界和关系，话题很深，需要的专业知识超出了老唐的能力范围，留给专家和学者去辩论吧——坦率说，我站在监管一边，但我不敢保证我的看法一定对——我们就看我们能力范围内的事情就好。现在，先不论监管和创新谁对谁错。让我们回头想三个简单而可怕的问题：①这份《暂行办法》如果实施，对于蚂蚁集团的经营是重大利空，这是无疑的。对不？②我们知道，我国相关行业监管文件出台前，都会提前小范围征求业内看法、专家意见，通过征集意见进行讨论和完善。这也是马云在《暂行办法》公开披露前，就能够以它为目标开炮的前提条件。如果此推论属实，意味着在《暂行办法》发布前，马云及蚂蚁的核心管理层已经知道公司可能会面临巨大利空打击。对吧？③接下来的事情，就细思极恐了。马云及蚂蚁管理层怎么处理这可能的利空呢？第一是保密——这无可厚非。第二是动用一切力量，以创纪录的速度上市，以蚂蚁将继续以过去的模式扩张和获利为假设前提，对企业进行估值，给新股定价。他们做到了，他们真的做到了。赶在监管层对社会公开《暂行办法》前，就完成了新股发行。甚至我怀疑，原本《暂行办法》计划的公开时间要更晚些。只是因为11月4日蚂蚁的新股将上市交易，届时可能就生米熟饭无可挽回了，所以才被迫于11月2日匆忙公开。如果这个推论属实，我们隔着屏幕就可以猜出蚂蚁内部会议上的讲话。马云先生可能是这样慷慨激昂地发表演说——以下言论，纯属虚构。如有雷同，实属巧合：兄弟们，加油啊，拼命啊，一定要抢在《暂行办法》公开前，将那些瓜娃子的钱拿到我们手上。否则，一旦他们知道我们以后不可能用以前的方式去赚钱了，他们绝不可能接受按2.1万亿的估值出价！兄弟们，这是生死攸关的时刻，我们必须要发扬红军飞夺泸定桥的精神，与时间赛跑。只要抢在瓜娃子们知道监管规则巨变之前，顺利登陆资本市场，就是蚂蚁人的伟大丰碑，是阿里人的伟大胜利。只要我们登陆成功，各位不仅有机会兑现千亿股权激励，豪宅豪车美女统统滴有、大大滴有。更关键的是，我们将在《暂行办法》出台前获得两千多亿的资本金，从而在未来更严格的资本要求下，取得相对同行的碾压式优势。兄弟们，几千亿面前，睡觉太奢侈了。我要求你们放弃996，直接007。你们每个人的名字，都将在蚂蚁的史册里闪闪发光。兄弟们，你人生里最大的一次历史机遇摆在你的面前了，抓不抓的住猪，就看你的了！哗哗哗……雷鸣般的掌声持续了6688秒至于上市成功后，监管意见出台，当投资者发现蚂蚁根本不可能再像过去那样，以极少的自有资本去赚取高额利润时，股价暴跌到哪里，那就是瓜娃子股民自己的事情了。今天，这种作法不触犯刑法吗？我不懂，但觉着应该有一条法律来界定。法律如果不管，我们只能靠自己照顾自己——又想起小时候听老父亲说的那句朴素理解：社会就这样，主义自己拿，这就叫社会主义这件事带给我的经验就是：这不奇怪，早在两年前，有朋友在书房问我为什么投腾讯不投阿里，我当时就是回答“因为不喜欢马云”。然后一位朋友在留言区追问为什么，老唐当时回复如下：什么样的道德观、价值观和世界观，决定了不同的人在同样的选择下，会做出的什么选择。一家企业管理团队的历史决策所依据的道德观和价值观，绝对是我们排除企业的重要依据之一。这或许可能让我们错过牛股，但同样会保护我们避免掉进一些可怕的陷阱。由此，老唐又联想到书房里的一个历史案例，同样是用管理层行为排除掉的一个企业。上周周记下面，好几位朋友询问上海机场。老唐瞄了眼，有点兴趣——顺带说一句，我今天66.66买了1000股观察仓。然后想起三年前曾经点杀过另一间机场：白云机场（链接在此：《岭上白云有疑点（上）》《岭上白云有疑点（下）》，发表于2017年10月21日）翻了翻旧文，挺有意思的。当时白云机场270亿市值，市场一片看好之声，基本预测2018年净利润在17~20亿之间，年产自由现金25~30亿，2018年之后确定增长，270亿市值“严重低估”。老唐当时记录大家看好的理由和预测：老唐当时只花了大半天时间阅读财报，我没有去关注它的利润和增长，而是从管理层的一个行为观察，发现事情可能不像大家预想的那么乐观，遂成文泼下两大桶+五小杯冷水。其中第一桶冷水，就是通过白云机场发行可转债以及控股股东和管理层对可转债的处理方式，得出大股东和管理层不看好白云机场的未来，认为270亿市值高估的结论。详细论证过程，我就不在这里重复了，感兴趣的朋友直接阅读《白云之上有疑点》上下篇即可（向书房发送“机场”即可提取）——特意强调：尤其不要错过留言区。实时记录了当时的市场气氛和多空观点，我觉着比文章本身的价值更大这个大半天得出的结论，相比那些深入挖掘企业资产负债及利润增长的研究报告，结果如何呢？沾时间这把无情刻刀的光，今天我们可以用上帝视角，回看白云机场的经营情况了：疫情冲击下的2020年，咱们排除不看。就看正常经营的2018和2019年。2018年不仅没有17~20亿，反而同比下跌约30%，只有11亿——考虑到当时已经是2017年10月底，对2018年的预测偏差，恐怕只能用脱靶二字评价了。至于2019年的确定性增长，更是没有看见，净利润进一步下滑至10亿。而且还不能推给意外，因为扣非净利润数据趋势是一致的。三年后的今天，白云机场市值306亿。也还不错，涨了13%，年化收益率约4%出头，还是比存银行收益高。但是，这13%的涨幅，是市盈率从17倍变成30多倍赠送的，企业经营本身是负面贡献。上述两个例子，就是老唐今天想说的：通过观察核心股东或管理层的行为，可以让我们规避一些投资道路上的陷阱。当然，必须要强调的是：以管理层的表现作为排除企业的依据，只是意味着你躲开了某些心生邪念的管理层，被算计的概率大大降低。但，它并不意味着这些管理层掌控的公司股票不会上涨。最有说服的反例恐怕就是：老唐通过此秘方，成功地躲开了泸州老窖这只7年14倍的大牛股","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688688":0.9,"06688":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":313476611,"gmtCreate":1611748625933,"gmtModify":1703752996658,"author":{"id":"3547671095374567","authorId":"3547671095374567","name":"自由引导我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf636a496e1d40c059ecf0accab3e45","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547671095374567","authorIdStr":"3547671095374567"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n陆金所开盘“破发”，盘初跌幅超11%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-30 23:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/B_-e1RAdtj7rHHwLSa45GQ><strong>第一财经YiMaga...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>10月30日，陆金所正式在美国纽约交易所挂牌交易。陆金所IPO定价13.5美元，开盘报11.75美元。截至发稿，跌超11%，最高12.11美元。陆金所此次领先蚂蚁集团和京东数科，成为第一个登陆资本市场的中国金融科技巨头。同时，陆金所也是继平安好医生和金融壹账通之后，平安集团第三家登陆资本市场的科技独角兽。根据中国平安三季报显示，在金融服务生态圈，陆金所控股保持稳健增长。截至9月末，陆金所控股客户...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/B_-e1RAdtj7rHHwLSa45GQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40653626f785186ad1ddbc75190965fa","relate_stocks":{"LU":"陆金所"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/B_-e1RAdtj7rHHwLSa45GQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188622747","content_text":"10月30日，陆金所正式在美国纽约交易所挂牌交易。陆金所IPO定价13.5美元，开盘报11.75美元。截至发稿，跌超11%，最高12.11美元。陆金所此次领先蚂蚁集团和京东数科，成为第一个登陆资本市场的中国金融科技巨头。同时，陆金所也是继平安好医生和金融壹账通之后，平安集团第三家登陆资本市场的科技独角兽。根据中国平安三季报显示，在金融服务生态圈，陆金所控股保持稳健增长。截至9月末，陆金所控股客户资产规模较年初增长9.1%至3782.78亿元；陆金所控股管理贷款余额较年初增长15.9%至5357.88亿元；当前，陆金所控股促成的贷款30天以上逾期率较第二季度的峰值明显改善，已恢复至疫情前水平。陆金所的生意规模差不多是蚂蚁集团的1/3。2020年上半年，两家公司的营收分别为257亿元和725亿元。除了没有支付业务，陆金所也像蚂蚁一样主营零售信贷和财富管理两大类业务，其中零售信贷为主，2020年上半年，零售信贷占陆金所全部营业收入的比重达到80.8%，财富管理占据剩余份额。这个结构与蚂蚁的微贷和理财板块相似。而且，陆金所在两项业务上的份额排名都没有离蚂蚁太远。截至2020年6月，非传统金融机构零售信贷领域的第一名（49.8%）和第二名（12%），以及非传统金融机构财富管理领域的第一名（47.3%）和第三名（9%），分别由蚂蚁和陆金所占据。这种相似性有利于海外投资者将对蚂蚁集团的热情部分投射到陆金所身上，但这两家公司面向的客群和商业模式完全不同。就业务占比最大的消费信贷来说，蚂蚁消费信贷中个人贷款的比重高达80.4%，其次是小微商户的19.6%。从陆金所贷款的客群结构则完全反过来，其69%的资金贷给了小微商户，并且，这些商户并不在平安集团的生态里，需要靠一批线下销售重新去招募。陆金所的流量来自三个部分。首先是一支自建的5.6万人的线下销售队伍，接着是4万人的线上和电销队伍（这是平安引以为傲的核心竞争力之一），最后是借助平安集团原有的寿险代理人体系。2020年上半年，陆金所新增贷款中36.9%的客户来自于平安。陆金所将这种模式称为“贷款领域的O2O”，在发展新客户，或是为抵押贷款做抵押物评估时，线下队伍会参与进来。当前，陆金所有19.3%的贷款是需要抵押的，而蚂蚁的贷款生意已经完全线上化了。这种差异来自于两家公司完全不同的创业基础。蚂蚁起源于支付宝和阿里巴巴，有天然的流量入口和交易数据作为风控手段，这些都是从保险公司内部创立起来的陆金所所不具备的。陆金所成立于2012年，初创期主营P2P时，陆金所还称得上是一家时髦的Fintech公司。尤其2014年到2016年间，它是中国最大的P2P平台。但2019年1月，P2P作为一种高风险“互联网金融”模式被政策叫停后，陆金所于当年8月停止供给新的P2P产品，此后，它就转型为如今这种以零售信贷和财富管理为主业的公司。远离了P2P的陆金所离流量也越来越远，生意不再具有网络效应，获客成本因此变得更高。根据招股书，2020年上半年，陆金所的销售和市场费用同比增长了21.3%至43亿元，在总收入中的占比由2019年同期的30.3%提高至 33.6%。获客费用是销售市场费用的主要组成部分，根据中泰证券的测算，2018年至今陆金所零售信贷业务的获客成本约为4000元/客。与此同时，其新客户数量并没有同步新增。相反，2018年至2019年，陆金所新增信贷借款者的数量从280万人下降到了210万人，2020年上半年，新增借款者数量又进一步下降到了100万人。随着互联网上的个人用户逐渐远离陆金所的App，陆金所的风控师想要用数据为借款者建模的想法也越来越不实际。中泰证券推断陆金所在疫情期间的逾期情况较为严重，根据是2020年上半年，陆金所在财务报表上列出了11.5 亿元的信贷减值。陆金所唯一超越蚂蚁的地方可能在于其够高的息差。根据招股书，陆金所存量无抵押合同和有抵押合同的年化率分别为29%和17% 。与之相比，蚂蚁集团微贷用户的借贷费用仅为13%～14%。陆金所在招股书中称：传统金融机构在数据驱动的风险评估能力上有不足，贷款一般发放给有较长经营史和充足抵押物的借款者；互联网科技金融平台更聚焦于小额和短期的贷款。而陆金所模式可以弥补传统金融机构和互联网科技金融平台的这些不足之处。高息差对利润率是好事，但它带来的困扰更多。直接结果就是复借率低，公司需要不断开拓新用户，获客成本因此将长期居高不下……这不是一个良性循环。长期看，陆金所继续从事贷款生意的资金来源也是挑战。2017年，其资金主要来自P2P和消费金融公司。P2P生意倒下后，陆金所的资金来源就变成了银行和信托公司，主要合作银行是平安体系内的平安银行以及渤海银行等。2020年上半年，陆金所新发放的零售信贷中的60.6%来自于银行资金，38.7%来自于信托资金。另一个令人不安的消息是，赴美上市之际，陆金所的高管团队又变动了。近一个月左右，陆金所国际首席技术官卢峻、首席市场官潘飚和首席合规官徐风雷相继离职。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}