这封信M的个人主页 - 老虎社区

这封信M

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IP属地：湖南

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2021-01-30

$游戏驿站(GME)$空头急了

2021-01-30

$游戏驿站(GME)$大佬说话了珍惜这次机会

2020-04-25

$Zoom(ZM)$原来$Facebook(FB)$ 是最大的空头

2021-02-03

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 又停牌[抠鼻]

2021-01-29

$游戏驿站(GME)$[得意] [得意] [得意]

2020-11-21

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 做空池剩余100股

2021-01-30

$游戏驿站(GME)$广告牌🪧

2021-01-30

$游戏驿站(GME)$ ！！！

2020-05-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$韭菜快不够用了

2021-01-29

$游戏驿站(GME)$[强] [强] [强]

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15:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"被指90%直播收入造假，欢聚集团再次反驳浑水：不了解整个行业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2085586812","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"被指90%直播收入造假，欢聚集团再次反驳浑水：不了解整个行业JOYY还将继续执行3亿美元股票回购计划。截至发稿，欢聚集团股价大涨16.9%至86.11美元，总市值为69.73亿美元。周三收盘，欢聚集团股价暴跌26.48%，报73.66美元。当日稍晚，针对浑水做空报告，欢聚集团作出回应称：浑水的报告充满了对直播行业和直播生态的无知，报告中逻辑不清、数据混乱、以偏概全，包含了大量的错误。","content":"<div>\n<p>原标题：被指90%直播收入造假，欢聚集团再次反驳浑水：不了解整个行业JOYY还将继续执行3亿美元股票回购计划。 文丨猎云网 ID：ilieyun编辑丨王非今日，欢聚集团在官网发布声明反驳浑水称：相关报告包含大量错误的信息和陈述，以及误导性结论。公告中表示，浑水的质疑是因为不了解整个直播行业的商业模式，JOYY相关的运营数据都有同行业数据可参考，符合行业逻辑。直播已成为互联网行业的重要收入手段。已有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-11-21/doc-iiznezxs2995938.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-11-21/doc-iiznezxs2995938.shtml><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：被指90%直播收入造假，欢聚集团再次反驳浑水：不了解整个行业JOYY还将继续执行3亿美元股票回购计划。 文丨猎云网 ID：ilieyun编辑丨王非今日，欢聚集团在官网发布声明反驳浑水称：相关报告包含大量错误的信息和陈述，以及误导性结论。公告中表示，浑水的质疑是因为不了解整个直播行业的商业模式，JOYY相关的运营数据都有同行业数据可参考，符合行业逻辑。直播已成为互联网行业的重要收入手段。已有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-11-21/doc-iiznezxs2995938.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a986280a0d0ac6d75b62fd1fec8874","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-11-21/doc-iiznezxs2995938.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2085586812","content_text":"原标题：被指90%直播收入造假，欢聚集团再次反驳浑水：不了解整个行业JOYY还将继续执行3亿美元股票回购计划。 文丨猎云网 ID：ilieyun编辑丨王非今日，欢聚集团在官网发布声明反驳浑水称：相关报告包含大量错误的信息和陈述，以及误导性结论。公告中表示，浑水的质疑是因为不了解整个直播行业的商业模式，JOYY相关的运营数据都有同行业数据可参考，符合行业逻辑。直播已成为互联网行业的重要收入手段。已有多家知名的互联网上市公司，以直播作为主要收入来源。同时，为了反驳回水报告中对于公司利润真实性的质疑，欢聚集团表示：可以提供海内外现金余额和银行存款对账单，被有能力的第三方机构做现金确认和调查。值得一提的是，在公告中，欢聚集团提到，公司在2020年8月，经董事会同意，在未来三年派息3亿美元，并且在2020年第三季度已支付2500万美元分红。公告还称，JOYY收购BIGO时，严格遵循了应有的公司治理流程，并获得了所有必要的批准。自收购20个月以来，BIGO收入从2019年第二季度 1.81亿美元快速增长到2020年第三季度4.90亿美元。在AppAnnie发布的9月全球非游戏类应用的收入排名中，Bigo live排名第六。此外，JOYY还将继续执行3亿美元股票回购计划。截至发稿，欢聚集团股价大涨16.9%至86.11美元，总市值为69.73亿美元。浑水做空欢聚集团：YY直播90%的收入是假的 昨日，知名做空机构浑水（Muddy Waters Research）创始人Carson Block表示，正沽空中概股欢聚集团。浑水在一份简短的报告中称，调查显示YY直播有大约90%都是欺诈行为，是一个虚假的生态系统。高收入直播表演者的收入只占报告总额的一小部分。浑水表示，通过分析近1.5亿笔交易，数据显示YY直播有约50%的礼物打赏收入来自YY服务器，另外有约40%的收入来自外部机器人或者主播刷单。周三收盘，欢聚集团股价暴跌26.48%，报73.66美元。浑水在做空报告中称：“我们做空欢聚集团，因为我们断定YY直播是一场数十亿美元的商业欺诈。我们得出的结论是，YY的实际业务只是其报告规模的一小部分，该公司报告的用户指标、收入、现金余额都是欺诈性的。我们的结论不仅适用于YY直播业务，而且也适用于YY的在线约会业务Bigo，以及其他一些业务。具体而言，YY报告的合并收入中约有84%是欺诈性的。即使将我们的基本假设情况改为对公司更有利的假设，合并欺诈收入也约为73%。”浑水还喊话百度称：“当你用接近7%市值相等的现金，收购一个完全虚假的业务时，你的尽职调查哪里去了？尽调怎么可能没有发现如此大规模的欺诈行为？如果百度认为自己尊重市场道德与法律，那就让我们看看。”当日稍晚，针对浑水做空报告，欢聚集团作出回应称：浑水的报告充满了对直播行业和直播生态的无知，报告中逻辑不清、数据混乱、以偏概全，包含了大量的错误。押注直播，百度36亿美元收购YY 11月17日，百度宣布与欢聚集团签署最终约束性协议，全资收购欢聚集团国内直播业务（即“YY直播”），总交易金额约为36亿美元，交易预期将于2021年上半年完成交割。YY直播作为百度发力直播赛道的一块拼图正式嵌入百度移动生态版图。从这两年的大环境来看，直播已经成为移动互联网变现的重要手段。在直播行业出现之前，移动端的变现渠道主要是游戏、广告和电商。直播的出现让直播打赏和直播电商成为强劲的现金牛。对于流量充足的百度来说，要想实现广告收入以外的多元化变现，发力直播是一个方向。从业务角度来看，YY直播的加入能够补强百度的直播业务，帮助百度提升在直播领域的竞争力。2008年至今，YY直播已经有12年的历史，是国内领先的泛娱乐直播平台。YY直播成熟的运营团队、技术能力和主播队伍有助于百度迅速构建运营体系，快速切入直播赛道。YY直播的加入还能丰富百度的内容生态，提升用户粘性。此外，从百度的整体发展来看，收购YY直播对百度更大的意义在于拓宽了百度移动生态的多元化变现能力。天眼查App显示，欢聚集团的关联公司为广州华多网络科技有限公司，该公司成立于2005年4月，法定代表人为李婷，注册资本为1亿人民币，经营范围包括计算机技术开发、技术服务；科技中介服务；网络技术的研究、开发；群众参与的文艺类演出、比赛等公益性文化活动的策划；安全智能卡类设备和系统制造；文化娱乐经纪人等。工商的股东信息显示，北京途达科技有限责任公司为第一大股东，持股99%，李学凌为第二股东，持股0.5%，另外，股东中还包含雷军，持股0.44%。该公司的疑似实际控制人与最终受益人均为李学凌，持股比例为97.22%。天眼查App显示，目前，该公司有数十家对外投资，包括广州聚联云科技有限公司、深圳市火柴人网络科技有限公司、广州奕凌网络科技有限公司等。值得一提的是，11月17日，欢聚集团（Nasdaq:YY，原“欢聚时代”）发布了截至9月30日的2020年第三季度财报，净收入同比增长36.1%至62.864亿元 （9.259亿美元）， 而2019年同期为46.173亿元。净利润为23.032亿元（3.392亿美元），而2019年同期为6180万元。非美国通用会计准则下，净利润为8.094亿元（1.192亿美元），而2019年同期为4.934亿元。以下为公告全文：欢聚集团反驳浑水报告1. 昨日，浑水发布关于JOYY的做空报告，引发市场焦虑和不安，导致股价异常波动。本公司认为，该报告包含大量错误的信息和陈述，以及误导性结论。2. 浑水的质疑是因为不了解整个直播行业的商业模式，JOYY相关的运营数据都有同行业数据可参考，符合行业逻辑。直播已成为互联网行业的重要收入手段。已有多家知名的互联网上市公司，以直播作为主要收入来源。3. 公司有强大的现金流和现金储备。为了反驳浑水报告对于公司利润真实性的质疑，公司可以提供海内外现金余额和银行存款对账单，被有能力的第三方机构做现金确认和调查。在2020年8月，经董事会同意，在未来三年派息3亿美元，并且在2020年第三季度已支付2500万美元分红，也印证了公司对于强大现金流的信心。4. JOYY收购BIGO时，严格遵循了应有的公司治理流程，并获得了所有必要的批准。自收购20个月以来，BIGO收入从2019年第二季度 1.81亿美元快速增长到2020年第三季度4.90亿美元。在AppAnnie发布的9月全球非游戏类应用的收入排名中，Bigo live排名第六。5. 为了展现公司对长期前景的信心，JOYY将继续执行3亿美元股票回购计划。JOYY2020年11月19日原标题：《被指90%直播收入造假，欢聚集团再次反驳浑水：不了解整个行业》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399369032,"gmtCreate":1605943968526,"gmtModify":1703840555855,"author":{"id":"3547769736710328","authorId":"3547769736710328","name":"这封信M","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/645551ae74e4046e99a26a1ebdb468aa","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547769736710328","idStr":"3547769736710328"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"直播行业的造假还有底气反驳？","listText":"直播行业的造假还有底气反驳？","text":"直播行业的造假还有底气反驳？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399369032","repostId":"2085237949","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2085237949","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605918120,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2085237949?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-21 08:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"爱奇艺后再做空欢聚，为何浑水一次次踏空？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2085237949","media":"罗超频道","summary":"继陌陌、好未来、新东方、瑞幸咖啡与爱奇艺后，11月18日做空机构浑水将枪口对准了欢聚集团。浑水发布的做空报告指控欢聚集团对投资者发布重大误导性虚假信息，列举了欢聚集团的一系列问题，称该公司是一个几十亿美元的骗局，报告认为欢聚集团实际业务只有其所宣称的一小部分，其财务报表中的各种计算指标、收入额和现金余额绝大部分是造假。","content":"<p>继<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">陌陌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>与爱奇艺后，11月18日做空机构浑水将枪口对准了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">欢聚集团</a>。浑水发布的做空报告指控欢聚集团对投资者发布重大误导性虚假信息，列举了欢聚集团的一系列问题，称该公司是一个几十亿美元的骗局，报告认为欢聚集团实际业务只有其所宣称的一小部分，其财务报表中的各种计算指标、收入额和现金余额绝大部分是造假。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20201121/43/w1000h643/20201121/818a-kefmphc1241101.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"463\"></p><p>浑水报告甚至认为：YY直播有大约90%是欺诈行为，是一个“海市蜃楼的生态系统，高收入直播表演者收入只占报告总额的一小部分，这些所谓的独立频道主在很大程度上受到YY公司的控制，以促成“虚假交易”。</p><p>90%业务数据造假，这个结论看上去确实让人震惊，有媒体报道称行业为之震动。那么，欢聚真的有如此严重的问题吗？</p><p><b>浑水做空的背后：牟利是第一位</b></p><p>做空机构不是路见不平的正义守护者，做空只是其牟利的手段，做空企业是它们的使命，过程很简单：先寻找问题公司，卖空这个公司股票，建立仓位，然后发布做空报告，在股价下跌中获利。做空机构关注的不是企业问题本身，而是利用可能存在的问题来影响更多投资者，进而让企业股价大幅下跌，最终获利。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20201121/62/w1000h662/20201121/e09d-kefmphc1241104.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"477\"></p><p>理论上来说企业都有大大小小的问题，做空公司最青睐的问题是财务造假。取证再基于证据发布能够说服投资者的报告是做空的关键一环。如果企业用心造假，打假就会变得困难，要达到这一目的，做空机构往往要与咨询公司、律师事务所等合作，与企业独立董事、公关服务商等串联，招聘财经专业大学生潜伏在企业做线人，或者让专业财经调查记者守在企业仓库门口统计进出车辆数，一切目的都是要获取企业的真实信息。</p><p>这一过程注定艰难，能够“一击而中”的做空报告不多，很多做空报告是“狼来了”，虽然一定程度上制造恐慌、扰乱视线，但只会让股票短期震动。即便企业股价会因为踩踏效应大幅下跌，但只要当事企业及时回应澄清，辅以回购等资本手段，在更多投资者回过神来后，企业股价往往就会恢复。</p><p>在这一次浑水对欢聚集团的做空事件中，浑水言辞激烈的做空报告发布后，投资者出现了较大的分歧。欢聚集团股价先是应声下跌，盘中跌幅一度逼近30%，最终收盘跌26%，市值一度缩水近20亿美元，但在盘后的交易中欢聚很快上涨，盘后上涨近15%。</p><p>接着欢聚集团及时回应，表示“该报告包含大量错误的信息和陈述，以及误导性结论，浑水的质疑是因为不了解整个直播行业的商业模式，公司有强大的现金流和现金储备，可以提供海内外现金余额和银行存款对账单，被有能力的第三方机构做现金确认和调查。”同时明确三年派息3亿美元、3亿美元股票回购计划继续执行，在这些动作下，投资者回过神来，重拾信心，第二个交易日（北京时间11月19日晚上），欢聚股价反弹一度大涨超20%。</p><p>仔细阅读浑水这份报告，我发现，这确实是一份为了做空而做空的报告，甚至可以说不是一份合格的做空报告。</p><p><b>做空欢聚，浑水欲加之罪</b></p><p>当下正值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>收购欢聚国内业务YY直播的关键时刻，双方在11月17日同日发布财报宣布了这一消息，根据双方已经签订的最终约束性协议，百度将以约36亿美元现金（根据协议或有对价调整）收购欢聚国内视频娱乐直播业务（“YY直播”）。受此消息影响，欢聚股价大幅度上涨。浑水选在此时此刻发布做空报告，应该说是最有利可图，另外欢聚今年的股价从年初的40多美元到近期的100美元，上涨超过100%，也给浑水带来更大的利益诱惑。</p><p>遗憾的是，仔细阅读研究之下，浑水的做空报告本身没有杀伤力，做空报告不只是要选对确有问题的公司，更要将问题清晰呈现出来，浑水瞄准欢聚集团，很大概率是选错了对象，这份报告体现出浑水对中国直播产业的不了解，甚至都算不上是一份合格的做空报告。</p><p>首先，浑水说YY直播90%业务数据是假的，中国泛娱乐直播行业不会同意。</p><p>在千播大战后中国直播市场高度繁荣，涌现出游戏直播、直播带货等创新应用，中国互联网络信息中心（CNNIC）发布第45次《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》数据显示，截至2020年3月，我国网络直播用户规模达5.60亿，较2018年底增长1.63亿，占网民整体的62.0%。直播是一个繁荣而成熟的规模化市场，行业对此应该没有什么分歧。</p><p>泛娱乐直播是最早最大的直播赛道，孵化出游戏直播等细分业务，而YY直播是行业公认的最大的泛娱乐直播平台，如果YY直播真的有90%的数据是假的，陌陌、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03700\">映客</a>与花椒等直播平台是如何一直生存至今的——有意思的是，2018年美国也曾有机构称陌陌直播业务可能存在“循环营收”问题，约40%营收被影响，结果是陌陌没受到任何影响。</p><p>其次，如果YY直播90%业务数据真的都是假的，现金流恐怕也早出大问题了。</p><p>浑水报告指出YY直播90%的业务数据是伪造的，但YY直播2019年总营收120亿元、利润超30亿元，同时YY直播2019年给公会主播分成55亿元，拥有稳定的现金流和利润。同时，YY直播每年每月依法交纳应缴税款、支付员工工资等财务数据均可查证和公示，欢聚回应可提供海内外现金余额和银行存款对账单，也表明其对现金流本身有信心。</p><p>按照过往情况来看，如果一家企业真的存在大规模造假，往往会频繁更换会计师事务所甚至CFO，欢聚并没有。很难想象一家企业90%的业务数据造假，会计师事务所等专业机构审计财报时未曾发现蛛丝马迹，而且是一家在美国上市近10年的公司。</p><p>最后，浑水报告不了解直播生态、举证逻辑问题较多，随机抽样调研并不科学，不具备说服力。</p><p>如下是部分例子：</p><p>1、浑水报告以YY平台上知名主播“摩登兄弟”为例论证头部主播收入造假的问题，逻辑是：“即便在近期他们不在平台直播的时候，也有大量来自YY服务器的打赏。沈曼2020年7月未开播期间，有一周仍收到9958元礼物。”这是因为YY直播以及很多平台都支持主播不开播状态下用户可进行暖场和打赏，因为用户打赏不一定是内容，他们追随的是主播本人。所以出现主播未开播时用户送礼是正常情况。</p><p>2、浑水报告认为YY平台头部主播收入低于对外宣称的金额，其调查者造访欢聚丹东办公室（应该是某公会），该办公室负责人举例称，网红崔阿扎未来两年实际收入为月工资15-20万人民币，这和外界预估的1500万元的礼物分成相差数倍。这是因为主播收入主要来自底薪+礼物分成，前者一般只会有一小部分。</p><p>3、浑水报告中以YY平台上五家头部公会的流水和公会的收入对比，得出平台85.9%的收入都是造假的。姑且不论新闻报道中五家公会的吸金11亿是否真实，浑水把11亿流水当成是公会的收入，确实表现出对直播行业的无知。11亿中平台会分成50%左右，分给主播剩余的50%，而这50%中主播占大部分，归属于公会的收入只占到礼物流水10%—15%，以此推断11亿流水对应的公会1.563亿收入合情合理。这是浑水因为对直播行业不了解，在报告中自己打了自己脸。</p><p>整体来说，浑水报告存在较多的以个例代表全盘，用臆测取代分析，将简单抽样视作科学统计的地方，缺乏说服力。</p><p>作为一家知名做空机构，浑水也曾有一些不错的战绩，比如在瑞幸自爆财务数据造假的两个月前，浑水就公开了一份匿名做空报告，指控<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>涉嫌财务造假，这份报告促使瑞幸成立独立调查委员会，成为瑞幸暴雷的导火索。当时为了完成瑞幸咖啡的89页做空报告，浑水动员92名全职和1418名兼职员工，在全国45个城市的2213家瑞幸咖啡门店，录下了大量的监控视频，从10119名顾客手中拿到了25843张收据。“这份89页的做空报告，有周密的调查、详实的数据、精确的测算，彻底揭穿了瑞幸造假的谎言。”相比之下，浑水后来针对爱奇艺的做空报告，以及这一次针对欢聚的做空报告，在不了解中国直播生态的背景下，显得粗制滥造、不具说服力。</p><p><b>做空屡屡踏空，浑水报告看看就好</b></p><p>浑水本次针对欢聚的做空报告“翻车”，我想可能有两重原因：</p><p>一方面，是因为浑水对中国直播市场缺乏真正的了解。从直播打赏开山鼻祖YY直播2010年上线算起，网络直播已有10年发展历史。不论是PC秀场、移动直播还是直播带货，都是中国互联网行业的本土原创商业模式，而不是像电商等业务一样借鉴自硅谷。事实上，不少中国直播玩家都在出海，将中国直播模式复制到海外,这是欢聚将YY直播出售给百度后重点发力的方向之一。</p><p>另一方面，正如我今年4月在《中概股迎来做空潮》一文指出，中概股正在面临继2011年做空潮后的新一轮做空潮，两次做空潮的核心原因都是因为大量中概股密集上市，大量公司密集上市的结果就是大量问题公司出现，“有缝的鸡蛋”变多，苍蝇蜂拥而至。2020年的疫情加速了做空潮，市场不好让一些公司昔日粉饰的财报“遮不住”了，再加上今年科技盘整体大涨正是做空好时机，因此做空机构像鲨鱼一样闻血而至。对于浑水等做空机构来说，要想抓住这波机会牟利，就要四面八方猎取企业做空，哪怕对象是错的，哪怕报告是粗制滥造的，都要试着做做空牟利。说到底，浑水做空“品控”下降了。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20201121/55/w552h303/20201121/effa-kefmphc1241129.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"303\"></p><p>今年浑水做空却“踏空”的公司就不止一家，在欢聚前浑水做空爱奇艺无功而返，爱奇艺最新市值166亿美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>今年被灰熊、香橼、天蝎、浑水等多个知名做空机构集体围攻做空10+次，股价依然坚挺，最新市值163亿美元。</p><p>实际上，回顾历史可以看到浑水等机构在中国的做空，很多都是“踏空”。2011年以来，以浑水、香橼为代表的外国做空机构，频频针对中国在美上市企业发布做空报告，今天看十分优秀的企业当时曾面临做空：</p><p>2012年6月20日香橼发布长达57页的研究报告，称恒大资不抵债，用欺诈手法掩饰资金问题，报告发出后恒大股价一度下跌超过20%，随后，恒大立刻召开公开电话会议对香橼进行反驳，并强调要追究其责任；2012年9月浑水发布针对新东方的做空报告，后者启动不超过5000万美元的回购计划，成立独立委员会对浑水质疑问题进行审查，结果证明报告内容子虚乌有；由于采取独特的免费杀毒软件模式，360商业模式不被理解，香橼在当时发布了一份漏洞百出的报告，对360未构成事实影响。2018年浑水曾发布四份针对学而思母公司好未来的做空报告，质疑2016-2018财年好未来存在一些财务问题，好未来股票未受到影响。</p><p>做空机构确实有可能会发现确实有问题的公司并“掀开罩子”，如瑞幸；但更多则是以牟利为唯一目的去想方设法让企业股价暴跌，通过危言耸听的做空报告去混肴视听、放大情绪、恶意砸盘、乱中取势，就像这一次浑水针对欢聚的做空，“90%数据造假”这一不可思议的结论，就透露出一股语不惊人死不休的意图。</p><p>不管怎么样，做空机构的报告都不会影响企业本身的价值。2012年新东方被做空后李开复说：“优秀的公司不怕做空。”柳传志当时的观点类似：“真正的好企业不怕被质疑，即便是被投资机构降低评级，也可以回购的方式应对，这并不吃亏。”当时被做空的新东方、恒大、360后来都证明了自己，爱奇艺被浑水做空后，龚宇说要老老实实做人和踏踏实实做事。</p><p>欢聚在被浑水做空后，及时回应澄清、明确继续执行3亿美元派息计划，给投资者送上定心丸，展现出其对未来发展的信心满满。当前，百度收购YY直播正在进行时，百度不可能没有专业背调就做出如此大手笔收购，这侧面反映出浑水的做空报告不具备什么说服力。收购交割完毕，欢聚得到更加充沛的现金流补充，积极布局海外市场，只会发展更好。</p><p>可以预见，在新一轮做空潮下，更多优秀公司会迎来“做空”，面对做空机构的做空行为，好公司做好自己即可，投资者则要擦亮眼睛，千万不要被迷了眼。</p>","source":"luochaotmt","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n爱奇艺后再做空欢聚，为何浑水一次次踏空？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-21 08:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3xhkHY6767hCmWGL-O18zg><strong>罗超频道</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>继陌陌、好未来、新东方、瑞幸咖啡与爱奇艺后，11月18日做空机构浑水将枪口对准了欢聚集团。浑水发布的做空报告指控欢聚集团对投资者发布重大误导性虚假信息，列举了欢聚集团的一系列问题，称该公司是一个几十亿美元的骗局，报告认为欢聚集团实际业务只有其所宣称的一小部分，其财务报表中的各种计算指标、收入额和现金余额绝大部分是造假。浑水报告甚至认为：YY直播有大约90%是欺诈行为，是一个“海市蜃楼的生态系统，高...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3xhkHY6767hCmWGL-O18zg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20201121/62/w1000h662/20201121/e09d-kefmphc1241104.png/w720fin.jpg","relate_stocks":{"IQ":"爱奇艺"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3xhkHY6767hCmWGL-O18zg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2085237949","content_text":"继陌陌、好未来、新东方、瑞幸咖啡与爱奇艺后，11月18日做空机构浑水将枪口对准了欢聚集团。浑水发布的做空报告指控欢聚集团对投资者发布重大误导性虚假信息，列举了欢聚集团的一系列问题，称该公司是一个几十亿美元的骗局，报告认为欢聚集团实际业务只有其所宣称的一小部分，其财务报表中的各种计算指标、收入额和现金余额绝大部分是造假。浑水报告甚至认为：YY直播有大约90%是欺诈行为，是一个“海市蜃楼的生态系统，高收入直播表演者收入只占报告总额的一小部分，这些所谓的独立频道主在很大程度上受到YY公司的控制，以促成“虚假交易”。90%业务数据造假，这个结论看上去确实让人震惊，有媒体报道称行业为之震动。那么，欢聚真的有如此严重的问题吗？浑水做空的背后：牟利是第一位做空机构不是路见不平的正义守护者，做空只是其牟利的手段，做空企业是它们的使命，过程很简单：先寻找问题公司，卖空这个公司股票，建立仓位，然后发布做空报告，在股价下跌中获利。做空机构关注的不是企业问题本身，而是利用可能存在的问题来影响更多投资者，进而让企业股价大幅下跌，最终获利。理论上来说企业都有大大小小的问题，做空公司最青睐的问题是财务造假。取证再基于证据发布能够说服投资者的报告是做空的关键一环。如果企业用心造假，打假就会变得困难，要达到这一目的，做空机构往往要与咨询公司、律师事务所等合作，与企业独立董事、公关服务商等串联，招聘财经专业大学生潜伏在企业做线人，或者让专业财经调查记者守在企业仓库门口统计进出车辆数，一切目的都是要获取企业的真实信息。这一过程注定艰难，能够“一击而中”的做空报告不多，很多做空报告是“狼来了”，虽然一定程度上制造恐慌、扰乱视线，但只会让股票短期震动。即便企业股价会因为踩踏效应大幅下跌，但只要当事企业及时回应澄清，辅以回购等资本手段，在更多投资者回过神来后，企业股价往往就会恢复。在这一次浑水对欢聚集团的做空事件中，浑水言辞激烈的做空报告发布后，投资者出现了较大的分歧。欢聚集团股价先是应声下跌，盘中跌幅一度逼近30%，最终收盘跌26%，市值一度缩水近20亿美元，但在盘后的交易中欢聚很快上涨，盘后上涨近15%。接着欢聚集团及时回应，表示“该报告包含大量错误的信息和陈述，以及误导性结论，浑水的质疑是因为不了解整个直播行业的商业模式，公司有强大的现金流和现金储备，可以提供海内外现金余额和银行存款对账单，被有能力的第三方机构做现金确认和调查。”同时明确三年派息3亿美元、3亿美元股票回购计划继续执行，在这些动作下，投资者回过神来，重拾信心，第二个交易日（北京时间11月19日晚上），欢聚股价反弹一度大涨超20%。仔细阅读浑水这份报告，我发现，这确实是一份为了做空而做空的报告，甚至可以说不是一份合格的做空报告。做空欢聚，浑水欲加之罪当下正值百度收购欢聚国内业务YY直播的关键时刻，双方在11月17日同日发布财报宣布了这一消息，根据双方已经签订的最终约束性协议，百度将以约36亿美元现金（根据协议或有对价调整）收购欢聚国内视频娱乐直播业务（“YY直播”）。受此消息影响，欢聚股价大幅度上涨。浑水选在此时此刻发布做空报告，应该说是最有利可图，另外欢聚今年的股价从年初的40多美元到近期的100美元，上涨超过100%，也给浑水带来更大的利益诱惑。遗憾的是，仔细阅读研究之下，浑水的做空报告本身没有杀伤力，做空报告不只是要选对确有问题的公司，更要将问题清晰呈现出来，浑水瞄准欢聚集团，很大概率是选错了对象，这份报告体现出浑水对中国直播产业的不了解，甚至都算不上是一份合格的做空报告。首先，浑水说YY直播90%业务数据是假的，中国泛娱乐直播行业不会同意。在千播大战后中国直播市场高度繁荣，涌现出游戏直播、直播带货等创新应用，中国互联网络信息中心（CNNIC）发布第45次《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》数据显示，截至2020年3月，我国网络直播用户规模达5.60亿，较2018年底增长1.63亿，占网民整体的62.0%。直播是一个繁荣而成熟的规模化市场，行业对此应该没有什么分歧。泛娱乐直播是最早最大的直播赛道，孵化出游戏直播等细分业务，而YY直播是行业公认的最大的泛娱乐直播平台，如果YY直播真的有90%的数据是假的，陌陌、映客与花椒等直播平台是如何一直生存至今的——有意思的是，2018年美国也曾有机构称陌陌直播业务可能存在“循环营收”问题，约40%营收被影响，结果是陌陌没受到任何影响。其次，如果YY直播90%业务数据真的都是假的，现金流恐怕也早出大问题了。浑水报告指出YY直播90%的业务数据是伪造的，但YY直播2019年总营收120亿元、利润超30亿元，同时YY直播2019年给公会主播分成55亿元，拥有稳定的现金流和利润。同时，YY直播每年每月依法交纳应缴税款、支付员工工资等财务数据均可查证和公示，欢聚回应可提供海内外现金余额和银行存款对账单，也表明其对现金流本身有信心。按照过往情况来看，如果一家企业真的存在大规模造假，往往会频繁更换会计师事务所甚至CFO，欢聚并没有。很难想象一家企业90%的业务数据造假，会计师事务所等专业机构审计财报时未曾发现蛛丝马迹，而且是一家在美国上市近10年的公司。最后，浑水报告不了解直播生态、举证逻辑问题较多，随机抽样调研并不科学，不具备说服力。如下是部分例子：1、浑水报告以YY平台上知名主播“摩登兄弟”为例论证头部主播收入造假的问题，逻辑是：“即便在近期他们不在平台直播的时候，也有大量来自YY服务器的打赏。沈曼2020年7月未开播期间，有一周仍收到9958元礼物。”这是因为YY直播以及很多平台都支持主播不开播状态下用户可进行暖场和打赏，因为用户打赏不一定是内容，他们追随的是主播本人。所以出现主播未开播时用户送礼是正常情况。2、浑水报告认为YY平台头部主播收入低于对外宣称的金额，其调查者造访欢聚丹东办公室（应该是某公会），该办公室负责人举例称，网红崔阿扎未来两年实际收入为月工资15-20万人民币，这和外界预估的1500万元的礼物分成相差数倍。这是因为主播收入主要来自底薪+礼物分成，前者一般只会有一小部分。3、浑水报告中以YY平台上五家头部公会的流水和公会的收入对比，得出平台85.9%的收入都是造假的。姑且不论新闻报道中五家公会的吸金11亿是否真实，浑水把11亿流水当成是公会的收入，确实表现出对直播行业的无知。11亿中平台会分成50%左右，分给主播剩余的50%，而这50%中主播占大部分，归属于公会的收入只占到礼物流水10%—15%，以此推断11亿流水对应的公会1.563亿收入合情合理。这是浑水因为对直播行业不了解，在报告中自己打了自己脸。整体来说，浑水报告存在较多的以个例代表全盘，用臆测取代分析，将简单抽样视作科学统计的地方，缺乏说服力。作为一家知名做空机构，浑水也曾有一些不错的战绩，比如在瑞幸自爆财务数据造假的两个月前，浑水就公开了一份匿名做空报告，指控瑞幸咖啡涉嫌财务造假，这份报告促使瑞幸成立独立调查委员会，成为瑞幸暴雷的导火索。当时为了完成瑞幸咖啡的89页做空报告，浑水动员92名全职和1418名兼职员工，在全国45个城市的2213家瑞幸咖啡门店，录下了大量的监控视频，从10119名顾客手中拿到了25843张收据。“这份89页的做空报告，有周密的调查、详实的数据、精确的测算，彻底揭穿了瑞幸造假的谎言。”相比之下，浑水后来针对爱奇艺的做空报告，以及这一次针对欢聚的做空报告，在不了解中国直播生态的背景下，显得粗制滥造、不具说服力。做空屡屡踏空，浑水报告看看就好浑水本次针对欢聚的做空报告“翻车”，我想可能有两重原因：一方面，是因为浑水对中国直播市场缺乏真正的了解。从直播打赏开山鼻祖YY直播2010年上线算起，网络直播已有10年发展历史。不论是PC秀场、移动直播还是直播带货，都是中国互联网行业的本土原创商业模式，而不是像电商等业务一样借鉴自硅谷。事实上，不少中国直播玩家都在出海，将中国直播模式复制到海外,这是欢聚将YY直播出售给百度后重点发力的方向之一。另一方面，正如我今年4月在《中概股迎来做空潮》一文指出，中概股正在面临继2011年做空潮后的新一轮做空潮，两次做空潮的核心原因都是因为大量中概股密集上市，大量公司密集上市的结果就是大量问题公司出现，“有缝的鸡蛋”变多，苍蝇蜂拥而至。2020年的疫情加速了做空潮，市场不好让一些公司昔日粉饰的财报“遮不住”了，再加上今年科技盘整体大涨正是做空好时机，因此做空机构像鲨鱼一样闻血而至。对于浑水等做空机构来说，要想抓住这波机会牟利，就要四面八方猎取企业做空，哪怕对象是错的，哪怕报告是粗制滥造的，都要试着做做空牟利。说到底，浑水做空“品控”下降了。今年浑水做空却“踏空”的公司就不止一家，在欢聚前浑水做空爱奇艺无功而返，爱奇艺最新市值166亿美元。跟谁学今年被灰熊、香橼、天蝎、浑水等多个知名做空机构集体围攻做空10+次，股价依然坚挺，最新市值163亿美元。实际上，回顾历史可以看到浑水等机构在中国的做空，很多都是“踏空”。2011年以来，以浑水、香橼为代表的外国做空机构，频频针对中国在美上市企业发布做空报告，今天看十分优秀的企业当时曾面临做空：2012年6月20日香橼发布长达57页的研究报告，称恒大资不抵债，用欺诈手法掩饰资金问题，报告发出后恒大股价一度下跌超过20%，随后，恒大立刻召开公开电话会议对香橼进行反驳，并强调要追究其责任；2012年9月浑水发布针对新东方的做空报告，后者启动不超过5000万美元的回购计划，成立独立委员会对浑水质疑问题进行审查，结果证明报告内容子虚乌有；由于采取独特的免费杀毒软件模式，360商业模式不被理解，香橼在当时发布了一份漏洞百出的报告，对360未构成事实影响。2018年浑水曾发布四份针对学而思母公司好未来的做空报告，质疑2016-2018财年好未来存在一些财务问题，好未来股票未受到影响。做空机构确实有可能会发现确实有问题的公司并“掀开罩子”，如瑞幸；但更多则是以牟利为唯一目的去想方设法让企业股价暴跌，通过危言耸听的做空报告去混肴视听、放大情绪、恶意砸盘、乱中取势，就像这一次浑水针对欢聚的做空，“90%数据造假”这一不可思议的结论，就透露出一股语不惊人死不休的意图。不管怎么样，做空机构的报告都不会影响企业本身的价值。2012年新东方被做空后李开复说：“优秀的公司不怕做空。”柳传志当时的观点类似：“真正的好企业不怕被质疑，即便是被投资机构降低评级，也可以回购的方式应对，这并不吃亏。”当时被做空的新东方、恒大、360后来都证明了自己，爱奇艺被浑水做空后，龚宇说要老老实实做人和踏踏实实做事。欢聚在被浑水做空后，及时回应澄清、明确继续执行3亿美元派息计划，给投资者送上定心丸，展现出其对未来发展的信心满满。当前，百度收购YY直播正在进行时，百度不可能没有专业背调就做出如此大手笔收购，这侧面反映出浑水的做空报告不具备什么说服力。收购交割完毕，欢聚得到更加充沛的现金流补充，积极布局海外市场，只会发展更好。可以预见，在新一轮做空潮下，更多优秀公司会迎来“做空”，面对做空机构的做空行为，好公司做好自己即可，投资者则要擦亮眼睛，千万不要被迷了眼。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IQ":0.9,"YY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399990817,"gmtCreate":1605888770539,"gmtModify":1703840371027,"author":{"id":"3547769736710328","authorId":"3547769736710328","name":"这封信M","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/645551ae74e4046e99a26a1ebdb468aa","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547769736710328","idStr":"3547769736710328"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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