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04-29 16:12

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新美联储通讯社：美联储本周料按兵不动，关键分歧：表明降息搁浅，还是仅推迟

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Timiraos在美联储4月FOMC会议前夕撰文称：</p><blockquote><p>两年前，在美国经济平稳运行、通胀持续回落之际，美联储主席鲍威尔曾以一句幽默回应了外界对“滞胀”的担忧：“说实话，我既看不到滞，也看不到胀。”</p><p>如今，一场真实战争引发的能源冲击又将这一风险重新推至台前——而此时的美国经济，通胀从未真正回归美联储2%的目标。<strong>1970年代滞胀的历史镜像，已不再像两年前那般遥不可及。</strong></p></blockquote><p>所谓滞胀，指的是经济增长停滞与高通胀并存的困境。去年，随着关税政策威胁推高物价、抑制就业，这一话题再度浮出水面。但彼时它仍停留于理论层面，政策调整随时可以纠偏。</p><p>Timiraos指出，几乎可以确定，美联储官员们将在本周三结束的为期两天会议上维持基准利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。然而，这次会议——也是鲍威尔任期届满前的最后一次，标志着一场更深层辩论的节点：<strong>委员会还能坚守“下一步更可能降息而非加息”的立场多久？</strong></p><p>美联储官员们正密切观察美国经济如何消化五年内第四次供给冲击：疫情重启、俄乌冲突、关税风波，伊朗战争。每一次冲击，都可以被解读为无需政策应对的偶发事件。然而接连叠加的效应，已令官员们如履薄冰。关税已在考验企业与消费者对涨价的承受底线。</p><p>Timiraos在文章中称，<strong>美联储决策者们还在为一个问题绞尽脑汁：疲软的就业增长是否高估了劳动力市场的脆弱程度？</strong>若因移民放缓，经济本就不再需要像过去那样新增大量岗位，那么新增就业减少或许并不意味着真正的衰退信号。</p><p>美联储理事沃勒曾以对美国劳动力市场的忧虑为由，力挺去年三次降息，如今他已将重心转向警惕通胀。他援引1970年代的历史——当时官员一再将冲击视为“暂时性”而不予应对，结果让通胀预期悄然失锚。沃勒说：</p><blockquote><p>我们必须对这一连串的偶发性冲击保持警觉，预期至关重要，到了某个临界点，你可能不得不出手应对。</p><p>我们一直说目标是2%，五年过去了，通胀从没真正回到过那个水平。到什么时候，人们才会开始质疑你的承诺？</p></blockquote><p>尽管伊朗战争已宣布停火，霍尔木兹海峡实际上仍处于封锁状态。航空燃油价格飙升。美联储官员现在预计，通胀回归2%目标的进程将再度停滞整整一年。</p><p>部分美联储官员此前谈及今年恢复降息，以抵消“在通胀下行而利率不变的情况下自动趋紧”的效果。这一论调已成往事。纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>本月稍早表示：</p><blockquote><p>就目前的情况而言，那种场景根本不存在。通胀如果有什么动向，是在往上走。</p><p>威廉姆斯将美联储当前的立场定性为主动抉择，而非被动因循：我们的货币政策明确处于正确位置，这正是我们想要所在的地方。</p></blockquote><p>Timiraos指出，与1970年代相比，今日的美国经济已发生深刻变化，完全重蹈覆辙的可能性不大。而且，如今的美联储远比当年更重视对通胀预期的管理。</p><p>对美联储FOMC委员会成员而言，Timiraos表示，<strong>更大的问题在于：是否应该修改正式声明措辞，暗示降息已基本出局。历史表明，这类语言调整的影响，有时不亚于利率决定本身。</strong></p><p>自去年底以来，美联储声明中一直保留着一句九个字的表述，暗示下一步政策行动更可能是降息而非加息。在最近两次会议上，已有少数官员主张删除这一措辞——一旦删除，就意味着降息与加息的可能性被视为同等：</p><blockquote><p>主张删除者的理由是：通胀走势背道而驰，冲击接连叠加之下，预测何时回归2%愈发艰难；劳动力市场依然稳健，股价已反弹至历史高位。这一切，都与一个仍在暗示降息在望的委员会形象格格不入。</p><p>然而委员会内的主流观点认为，这一改变有些过激。正式修改措辞本身就会收紧金融条件，构成官员们或许还未准备好采取的鹰派举措。鲍威尔盟友威廉姆斯表示，“我们现在不适合发出强烈的前瞻性指引，也确实没有这样做。”</p><p>美联储官员们将在本周再次审视这一问题。</p></blockquote><p>Timiraos表示，美联储FOMC委员会的思路，有时走得比语言更快。在动用正式声明措辞这一“重锤”之前，官员们有其他更为迂回的方式来传递政策风向——无论是鲍威尔周三的新闻发布会，5月的官员讲话，还是6月中旬下次会议上发布的经济预测。</p><p>Timiraos总结说，届时，美联储FOMC委员会的掌舵者很可能已换成凯文·沃什——特朗普提名的前美联储理事，接班鲍威尔。如何决定是否、以及如何正式调整美联储的政策指引，或许将落到沃什肩上，而他对这一问题的判断，可能与前任截然不同。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新美联储通讯社：美联储本周料按兵不动，关键分歧：表明降息搁浅，还是仅推迟\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-29 05:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Nick Timiraos撰文称，1970年代滞胀的历史镜像，已不再像两年前那般遥不可及。美联储4月会议标志着一场更深层辩论的节点：委员会还能坚守“下一步更可能降息而非加息”的立场多久？是否应该修改正式声明措辞，暗示降息已基本出局？</p></blockquote><p>有“新美联储通讯社”之称的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos在美联储4月FOMC会议前夕撰文称：</p><blockquote><p>两年前，在美国经济平稳运行、通胀持续回落之际，美联储主席鲍威尔曾以一句幽默回应了外界对“滞胀”的担忧：“说实话，我既看不到滞，也看不到胀。”</p><p>如今，一场真实战争引发的能源冲击又将这一风险重新推至台前——而此时的美国经济，通胀从未真正回归美联储2%的目标。<strong>1970年代滞胀的历史镜像，已不再像两年前那般遥不可及。</strong></p></blockquote><p>所谓滞胀，指的是经济增长停滞与高通胀并存的困境。去年，随着关税政策威胁推高物价、抑制就业，这一话题再度浮出水面。但彼时它仍停留于理论层面，政策调整随时可以纠偏。</p><p>Timiraos指出，几乎可以确定，美联储官员们将在本周三结束的为期两天会议上维持基准利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。然而，这次会议——也是鲍威尔任期届满前的最后一次，标志着一场更深层辩论的节点：<strong>委员会还能坚守“下一步更可能降息而非加息”的立场多久？</strong></p><p>美联储官员们正密切观察美国经济如何消化五年内第四次供给冲击：疫情重启、俄乌冲突、关税风波，伊朗战争。每一次冲击，都可以被解读为无需政策应对的偶发事件。然而接连叠加的效应，已令官员们如履薄冰。关税已在考验企业与消费者对涨价的承受底线。</p><p>Timiraos在文章中称，<strong>美联储决策者们还在为一个问题绞尽脑汁：疲软的就业增长是否高估了劳动力市场的脆弱程度？</strong>若因移民放缓，经济本就不再需要像过去那样新增大量岗位，那么新增就业减少或许并不意味着真正的衰退信号。</p><p>美联储理事沃勒曾以对美国劳动力市场的忧虑为由，力挺去年三次降息，如今他已将重心转向警惕通胀。他援引1970年代的历史——当时官员一再将冲击视为“暂时性”而不予应对，结果让通胀预期悄然失锚。沃勒说：</p><blockquote><p>我们必须对这一连串的偶发性冲击保持警觉，预期至关重要，到了某个临界点，你可能不得不出手应对。</p><p>我们一直说目标是2%，五年过去了，通胀从没真正回到过那个水平。到什么时候，人们才会开始质疑你的承诺？</p></blockquote><p>尽管伊朗战争已宣布停火，霍尔木兹海峡实际上仍处于封锁状态。航空燃油价格飙升。美联储官员现在预计，通胀回归2%目标的进程将再度停滞整整一年。</p><p>部分美联储官员此前谈及今年恢复降息，以抵消“在通胀下行而利率不变的情况下自动趋紧”的效果。这一论调已成往事。纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>本月稍早表示：</p><blockquote><p>就目前的情况而言，那种场景根本不存在。通胀如果有什么动向，是在往上走。</p><p>威廉姆斯将美联储当前的立场定性为主动抉择，而非被动因循：我们的货币政策明确处于正确位置，这正是我们想要所在的地方。</p></blockquote><p>Timiraos指出，与1970年代相比，今日的美国经济已发生深刻变化，完全重蹈覆辙的可能性不大。而且，如今的美联储远比当年更重视对通胀预期的管理。</p><p>对美联储FOMC委员会成员而言，Timiraos表示，<strong>更大的问题在于：是否应该修改正式声明措辞，暗示降息已基本出局。历史表明，这类语言调整的影响，有时不亚于利率决定本身。</strong></p><p>自去年底以来，美联储声明中一直保留着一句九个字的表述，暗示下一步政策行动更可能是降息而非加息。在最近两次会议上，已有少数官员主张删除这一措辞——一旦删除，就意味着降息与加息的可能性被视为同等：</p><blockquote><p>主张删除者的理由是：通胀走势背道而驰，冲击接连叠加之下，预测何时回归2%愈发艰难；劳动力市场依然稳健，股价已反弹至历史高位。这一切，都与一个仍在暗示降息在望的委员会形象格格不入。</p><p>然而委员会内的主流观点认为，这一改变有些过激。正式修改措辞本身就会收紧金融条件，构成官员们或许还未准备好采取的鹰派举措。鲍威尔盟友威廉姆斯表示，“我们现在不适合发出强烈的前瞻性指引，也确实没有这样做。”</p><p>美联储官员们将在本周再次审视这一问题。</p></blockquote><p>Timiraos表示，美联储FOMC委员会的思路，有时走得比语言更快。在动用正式声明措辞这一“重锤”之前，官员们有其他更为迂回的方式来传递政策风向——无论是鲍威尔周三的新闻发布会，5月的官员讲话，还是6月中旬下次会议上发布的经济预测。</p><p>Timiraos总结说，届时，美联储FOMC委员会的掌舵者很可能已换成凯文·沃什——特朗普提名的前美联储理事，接班鲍威尔。如何决定是否、以及如何正式调整美联储的政策指引，或许将落到沃什肩上，而他对这一问题的判断，可能与前任截然不同。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"GOLY":"Strategy 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Timiraos在美联储4月FOMC会议前夕撰文称：两年前，在美国经济平稳运行、通胀持续回落之际，美联储主席鲍威尔曾以一句幽默回应了外界对“滞胀”的担忧：“说实话，我既看不到滞，也看不到胀。”如今，一场真实战争引发的能源冲击又将这一风险重新推至台前——而此时的美国经济，通胀从未真正回归美联储2%的目标。1970年代滞胀的历史镜像，已不再像两年前那般遥不可及。所谓滞胀，指的是经济增长停滞与高通胀并存的困境。去年，随着关税政策威胁推高物价、抑制就业，这一话题再度浮出水面。但彼时它仍停留于理论层面，政策调整随时可以纠偏。Timiraos指出，几乎可以确定，美联储官员们将在本周三结束的为期两天会议上维持基准利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。然而，这次会议——也是鲍威尔任期届满前的最后一次，标志着一场更深层辩论的节点：委员会还能坚守“下一步更可能降息而非加息”的立场多久？美联储官员们正密切观察美国经济如何消化五年内第四次供给冲击：疫情重启、俄乌冲突、关税风波，伊朗战争。每一次冲击，都可以被解读为无需政策应对的偶发事件。然而接连叠加的效应，已令官员们如履薄冰。关税已在考验企业与消费者对涨价的承受底线。Timiraos在文章中称，美联储决策者们还在为一个问题绞尽脑汁：疲软的就业增长是否高估了劳动力市场的脆弱程度？若因移民放缓，经济本就不再需要像过去那样新增大量岗位，那么新增就业减少或许并不意味着真正的衰退信号。美联储理事沃勒曾以对美国劳动力市场的忧虑为由，力挺去年三次降息，如今他已将重心转向警惕通胀。他援引1970年代的历史——当时官员一再将冲击视为“暂时性”而不予应对，结果让通胀预期悄然失锚。沃勒说：我们必须对这一连串的偶发性冲击保持警觉，预期至关重要，到了某个临界点，你可能不得不出手应对。我们一直说目标是2%，五年过去了，通胀从没真正回到过那个水平。到什么时候，人们才会开始质疑你的承诺？尽管伊朗战争已宣布停火，霍尔木兹海峡实际上仍处于封锁状态。航空燃油价格飙升。美联储官员现在预计，通胀回归2%目标的进程将再度停滞整整一年。部分美联储官员此前谈及今年恢复降息，以抵消“在通胀下行而利率不变的情况下自动趋紧”的效果。这一论调已成往事。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯本月稍早表示：就目前的情况而言，那种场景根本不存在。通胀如果有什么动向，是在往上走。威廉姆斯将美联储当前的立场定性为主动抉择，而非被动因循：我们的货币政策明确处于正确位置，这正是我们想要所在的地方。Timiraos指出，与1970年代相比，今日的美国经济已发生深刻变化，完全重蹈覆辙的可能性不大。而且，如今的美联储远比当年更重视对通胀预期的管理。对美联储FOMC委员会成员而言，Timiraos表示，更大的问题在于：是否应该修改正式声明措辞，暗示降息已基本出局。历史表明，这类语言调整的影响，有时不亚于利率决定本身。自去年底以来，美联储声明中一直保留着一句九个字的表述，暗示下一步政策行动更可能是降息而非加息。在最近两次会议上，已有少数官员主张删除这一措辞——一旦删除，就意味着降息与加息的可能性被视为同等：主张删除者的理由是：通胀走势背道而驰，冲击接连叠加之下，预测何时回归2%愈发艰难；劳动力市场依然稳健，股价已反弹至历史高位。这一切，都与一个仍在暗示降息在望的委员会形象格格不入。然而委员会内的主流观点认为，这一改变有些过激。正式修改措辞本身就会收紧金融条件，构成官员们或许还未准备好采取的鹰派举措。鲍威尔盟友威廉姆斯表示，“我们现在不适合发出强烈的前瞻性指引，也确实没有这样做。”美联储官员们将在本周再次审视这一问题。Timiraos表示，美联储FOMC委员会的思路，有时走得比语言更快。在动用正式声明措辞这一“重锤”之前，官员们有其他更为迂回的方式来传递政策风向——无论是鲍威尔周三的新闻发布会，5月的官员讲话，还是6月中旬下次会议上发布的经济预测。Timiraos总结说，届时，美联储FOMC委员会的掌舵者很可能已换成凯文·沃什——特朗普提名的前美联储理事，接班鲍威尔。如何决定是否、以及如何正式调整美联储的政策指引，或许将落到沃什肩上，而他对这一问题的判断，可能与前任截然不同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SHV":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"TBIL":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"BSV":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"MUB":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"BND":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"ZROZ":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"VCIT":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557062757663976,"gmtCreate":1777010743151,"gmtModify":1777010744808,"author":{"id":"3547897718833559","authorId":"3547897718833559","name":"足球先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8e8138e7f7c5a66e689bb54e686039c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547897718833559","idStr":"3547897718833559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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05:15","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"新美联储通讯社：美联储本周料按兵不动，关键分歧：表明降息搁浅，还是仅推迟","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2631315285","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Nick Timiraos撰文称，1970年代滞胀的历史镜像，已不再像两年前那般遥不可及。美联储4月会议标志着一场更深层辩论的节点：委员会还能坚守“下一步更可能降息而非加息”的立场多久？是否应该修改正式声明措辞，暗示降息已基本出局？","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Nick Timiraos撰文称，1970年代滞胀的历史镜像，已不再像两年前那般遥不可及。美联储4月会议标志着一场更深层辩论的节点：委员会还能坚守“下一步更可能降息而非加息”的立场多久？是否应该修改正式声明措辞，暗示降息已基本出局？</p></blockquote><p>有“新美联储通讯社”之称的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos在美联储4月FOMC会议前夕撰文称：</p><blockquote><p>两年前，在美国经济平稳运行、通胀持续回落之际，美联储主席鲍威尔曾以一句幽默回应了外界对“滞胀”的担忧：“说实话，我既看不到滞，也看不到胀。”</p><p>如今，一场真实战争引发的能源冲击又将这一风险重新推至台前——而此时的美国经济，通胀从未真正回归美联储2%的目标。<strong>1970年代滞胀的历史镜像，已不再像两年前那般遥不可及。</strong></p></blockquote><p>所谓滞胀，指的是经济增长停滞与高通胀并存的困境。去年，随着关税政策威胁推高物价、抑制就业，这一话题再度浮出水面。但彼时它仍停留于理论层面，政策调整随时可以纠偏。</p><p>Timiraos指出，几乎可以确定，美联储官员们将在本周三结束的为期两天会议上维持基准利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。然而，这次会议——也是鲍威尔任期届满前的最后一次，标志着一场更深层辩论的节点：<strong>委员会还能坚守“下一步更可能降息而非加息”的立场多久？</strong></p><p>美联储官员们正密切观察美国经济如何消化五年内第四次供给冲击：疫情重启、俄乌冲突、关税风波，伊朗战争。每一次冲击，都可以被解读为无需政策应对的偶发事件。然而接连叠加的效应，已令官员们如履薄冰。关税已在考验企业与消费者对涨价的承受底线。</p><p>Timiraos在文章中称，<strong>美联储决策者们还在为一个问题绞尽脑汁：疲软的就业增长是否高估了劳动力市场的脆弱程度？</strong>若因移民放缓，经济本就不再需要像过去那样新增大量岗位，那么新增就业减少或许并不意味着真正的衰退信号。</p><p>美联储理事沃勒曾以对美国劳动力市场的忧虑为由，力挺去年三次降息，如今他已将重心转向警惕通胀。他援引1970年代的历史——当时官员一再将冲击视为“暂时性”而不予应对，结果让通胀预期悄然失锚。沃勒说：</p><blockquote><p>我们必须对这一连串的偶发性冲击保持警觉，预期至关重要，到了某个临界点，你可能不得不出手应对。</p><p>我们一直说目标是2%，五年过去了，通胀从没真正回到过那个水平。到什么时候，人们才会开始质疑你的承诺？</p></blockquote><p>尽管伊朗战争已宣布停火，霍尔木兹海峡实际上仍处于封锁状态。航空燃油价格飙升。美联储官员现在预计，通胀回归2%目标的进程将再度停滞整整一年。</p><p>部分美联储官员此前谈及今年恢复降息，以抵消“在通胀下行而利率不变的情况下自动趋紧”的效果。这一论调已成往事。纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>本月稍早表示：</p><blockquote><p>就目前的情况而言，那种场景根本不存在。通胀如果有什么动向，是在往上走。</p><p>威廉姆斯将美联储当前的立场定性为主动抉择，而非被动因循：我们的货币政策明确处于正确位置，这正是我们想要所在的地方。</p></blockquote><p>Timiraos指出，与1970年代相比，今日的美国经济已发生深刻变化，完全重蹈覆辙的可能性不大。而且，如今的美联储远比当年更重视对通胀预期的管理。</p><p>对美联储FOMC委员会成员而言，Timiraos表示，<strong>更大的问题在于：是否应该修改正式声明措辞，暗示降息已基本出局。历史表明，这类语言调整的影响，有时不亚于利率决定本身。</strong></p><p>自去年底以来，美联储声明中一直保留着一句九个字的表述，暗示下一步政策行动更可能是降息而非加息。在最近两次会议上，已有少数官员主张删除这一措辞——一旦删除，就意味着降息与加息的可能性被视为同等：</p><blockquote><p>主张删除者的理由是：通胀走势背道而驰，冲击接连叠加之下，预测何时回归2%愈发艰难；劳动力市场依然稳健，股价已反弹至历史高位。这一切，都与一个仍在暗示降息在望的委员会形象格格不入。</p><p>然而委员会内的主流观点认为，这一改变有些过激。正式修改措辞本身就会收紧金融条件，构成官员们或许还未准备好采取的鹰派举措。鲍威尔盟友威廉姆斯表示，“我们现在不适合发出强烈的前瞻性指引，也确实没有这样做。”</p><p>美联储官员们将在本周再次审视这一问题。</p></blockquote><p>Timiraos表示，美联储FOMC委员会的思路，有时走得比语言更快。在动用正式声明措辞这一“重锤”之前，官员们有其他更为迂回的方式来传递政策风向——无论是鲍威尔周三的新闻发布会，5月的官员讲话，还是6月中旬下次会议上发布的经济预测。</p><p>Timiraos总结说，届时，美联储FOMC委员会的掌舵者很可能已换成凯文·沃什——特朗普提名的前美联储理事，接班鲍威尔。如何决定是否、以及如何正式调整美联储的政策指引，或许将落到沃什肩上，而他对这一问题的判断，可能与前任截然不同。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新美联储通讯社：美联储本周料按兵不动，关键分歧：表明降息搁浅，还是仅推迟\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-29 05:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Nick Timiraos撰文称，1970年代滞胀的历史镜像，已不再像两年前那般遥不可及。美联储4月会议标志着一场更深层辩论的节点：委员会还能坚守“下一步更可能降息而非加息”的立场多久？是否应该修改正式声明措辞，暗示降息已基本出局？</p></blockquote><p>有“新美联储通讯社”之称的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos在美联储4月FOMC会议前夕撰文称：</p><blockquote><p>两年前，在美国经济平稳运行、通胀持续回落之际，美联储主席鲍威尔曾以一句幽默回应了外界对“滞胀”的担忧：“说实话，我既看不到滞，也看不到胀。”</p><p>如今，一场真实战争引发的能源冲击又将这一风险重新推至台前——而此时的美国经济，通胀从未真正回归美联储2%的目标。<strong>1970年代滞胀的历史镜像，已不再像两年前那般遥不可及。</strong></p></blockquote><p>所谓滞胀，指的是经济增长停滞与高通胀并存的困境。去年，随着关税政策威胁推高物价、抑制就业，这一话题再度浮出水面。但彼时它仍停留于理论层面，政策调整随时可以纠偏。</p><p>Timiraos指出，几乎可以确定，美联储官员们将在本周三结束的为期两天会议上维持基准利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。然而，这次会议——也是鲍威尔任期届满前的最后一次，标志着一场更深层辩论的节点：<strong>委员会还能坚守“下一步更可能降息而非加息”的立场多久？</strong></p><p>美联储官员们正密切观察美国经济如何消化五年内第四次供给冲击：疫情重启、俄乌冲突、关税风波，伊朗战争。每一次冲击，都可以被解读为无需政策应对的偶发事件。然而接连叠加的效应，已令官员们如履薄冰。关税已在考验企业与消费者对涨价的承受底线。</p><p>Timiraos在文章中称，<strong>美联储决策者们还在为一个问题绞尽脑汁：疲软的就业增长是否高估了劳动力市场的脆弱程度？</strong>若因移民放缓，经济本就不再需要像过去那样新增大量岗位，那么新增就业减少或许并不意味着真正的衰退信号。</p><p>美联储理事沃勒曾以对美国劳动力市场的忧虑为由，力挺去年三次降息，如今他已将重心转向警惕通胀。他援引1970年代的历史——当时官员一再将冲击视为“暂时性”而不予应对，结果让通胀预期悄然失锚。沃勒说：</p><blockquote><p>我们必须对这一连串的偶发性冲击保持警觉，预期至关重要，到了某个临界点，你可能不得不出手应对。</p><p>我们一直说目标是2%，五年过去了，通胀从没真正回到过那个水平。到什么时候，人们才会开始质疑你的承诺？</p></blockquote><p>尽管伊朗战争已宣布停火，霍尔木兹海峡实际上仍处于封锁状态。航空燃油价格飙升。美联储官员现在预计，通胀回归2%目标的进程将再度停滞整整一年。</p><p>部分美联储官员此前谈及今年恢复降息，以抵消“在通胀下行而利率不变的情况下自动趋紧”的效果。这一论调已成往事。纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>本月稍早表示：</p><blockquote><p>就目前的情况而言，那种场景根本不存在。通胀如果有什么动向，是在往上走。</p><p>威廉姆斯将美联储当前的立场定性为主动抉择，而非被动因循：我们的货币政策明确处于正确位置，这正是我们想要所在的地方。</p></blockquote><p>Timiraos指出，与1970年代相比，今日的美国经济已发生深刻变化，完全重蹈覆辙的可能性不大。而且，如今的美联储远比当年更重视对通胀预期的管理。</p><p>对美联储FOMC委员会成员而言，Timiraos表示，<strong>更大的问题在于：是否应该修改正式声明措辞，暗示降息已基本出局。历史表明，这类语言调整的影响，有时不亚于利率决定本身。</strong></p><p>自去年底以来，美联储声明中一直保留着一句九个字的表述，暗示下一步政策行动更可能是降息而非加息。在最近两次会议上，已有少数官员主张删除这一措辞——一旦删除，就意味着降息与加息的可能性被视为同等：</p><blockquote><p>主张删除者的理由是：通胀走势背道而驰，冲击接连叠加之下，预测何时回归2%愈发艰难；劳动力市场依然稳健，股价已反弹至历史高位。这一切，都与一个仍在暗示降息在望的委员会形象格格不入。</p><p>然而委员会内的主流观点认为，这一改变有些过激。正式修改措辞本身就会收紧金融条件，构成官员们或许还未准备好采取的鹰派举措。鲍威尔盟友威廉姆斯表示，“我们现在不适合发出强烈的前瞻性指引，也确实没有这样做。”</p><p>美联储官员们将在本周再次审视这一问题。</p></blockquote><p>Timiraos表示，美联储FOMC委员会的思路，有时走得比语言更快。在动用正式声明措辞这一“重锤”之前，官员们有其他更为迂回的方式来传递政策风向——无论是鲍威尔周三的新闻发布会，5月的官员讲话，还是6月中旬下次会议上发布的经济预测。</p><p>Timiraos总结说，届时，美联储FOMC委员会的掌舵者很可能已换成凯文·沃什——特朗普提名的前美联储理事，接班鲍威尔。如何决定是否、以及如何正式调整美联储的政策指引，或许将落到沃什肩上，而他对这一问题的判断，可能与前任截然不同。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"GOLY":"Strategy 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Timiraos在美联储4月FOMC会议前夕撰文称：两年前，在美国经济平稳运行、通胀持续回落之际，美联储主席鲍威尔曾以一句幽默回应了外界对“滞胀”的担忧：“说实话，我既看不到滞，也看不到胀。”如今，一场真实战争引发的能源冲击又将这一风险重新推至台前——而此时的美国经济，通胀从未真正回归美联储2%的目标。1970年代滞胀的历史镜像，已不再像两年前那般遥不可及。所谓滞胀，指的是经济增长停滞与高通胀并存的困境。去年，随着关税政策威胁推高物价、抑制就业，这一话题再度浮出水面。但彼时它仍停留于理论层面，政策调整随时可以纠偏。Timiraos指出，几乎可以确定，美联储官员们将在本周三结束的为期两天会议上维持基准利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。然而，这次会议——也是鲍威尔任期届满前的最后一次，标志着一场更深层辩论的节点：委员会还能坚守“下一步更可能降息而非加息”的立场多久？美联储官员们正密切观察美国经济如何消化五年内第四次供给冲击：疫情重启、俄乌冲突、关税风波，伊朗战争。每一次冲击，都可以被解读为无需政策应对的偶发事件。然而接连叠加的效应，已令官员们如履薄冰。关税已在考验企业与消费者对涨价的承受底线。Timiraos在文章中称，美联储决策者们还在为一个问题绞尽脑汁：疲软的就业增长是否高估了劳动力市场的脆弱程度？若因移民放缓，经济本就不再需要像过去那样新增大量岗位，那么新增就业减少或许并不意味着真正的衰退信号。美联储理事沃勒曾以对美国劳动力市场的忧虑为由，力挺去年三次降息，如今他已将重心转向警惕通胀。他援引1970年代的历史——当时官员一再将冲击视为“暂时性”而不予应对，结果让通胀预期悄然失锚。沃勒说：我们必须对这一连串的偶发性冲击保持警觉，预期至关重要，到了某个临界点，你可能不得不出手应对。我们一直说目标是2%，五年过去了，通胀从没真正回到过那个水平。到什么时候，人们才会开始质疑你的承诺？尽管伊朗战争已宣布停火，霍尔木兹海峡实际上仍处于封锁状态。航空燃油价格飙升。美联储官员现在预计，通胀回归2%目标的进程将再度停滞整整一年。部分美联储官员此前谈及今年恢复降息，以抵消“在通胀下行而利率不变的情况下自动趋紧”的效果。这一论调已成往事。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯本月稍早表示：就目前的情况而言，那种场景根本不存在。通胀如果有什么动向，是在往上走。威廉姆斯将美联储当前的立场定性为主动抉择，而非被动因循：我们的货币政策明确处于正确位置，这正是我们想要所在的地方。Timiraos指出，与1970年代相比，今日的美国经济已发生深刻变化，完全重蹈覆辙的可能性不大。而且，如今的美联储远比当年更重视对通胀预期的管理。对美联储FOMC委员会成员而言，Timiraos表示，更大的问题在于：是否应该修改正式声明措辞，暗示降息已基本出局。历史表明，这类语言调整的影响，有时不亚于利率决定本身。自去年底以来，美联储声明中一直保留着一句九个字的表述，暗示下一步政策行动更可能是降息而非加息。在最近两次会议上，已有少数官员主张删除这一措辞——一旦删除，就意味着降息与加息的可能性被视为同等：主张删除者的理由是：通胀走势背道而驰，冲击接连叠加之下，预测何时回归2%愈发艰难；劳动力市场依然稳健，股价已反弹至历史高位。这一切，都与一个仍在暗示降息在望的委员会形象格格不入。然而委员会内的主流观点认为，这一改变有些过激。正式修改措辞本身就会收紧金融条件，构成官员们或许还未准备好采取的鹰派举措。鲍威尔盟友威廉姆斯表示，“我们现在不适合发出强烈的前瞻性指引，也确实没有这样做。”美联储官员们将在本周再次审视这一问题。Timiraos表示，美联储FOMC委员会的思路，有时走得比语言更快。在动用正式声明措辞这一“重锤”之前，官员们有其他更为迂回的方式来传递政策风向——无论是鲍威尔周三的新闻发布会，5月的官员讲话，还是6月中旬下次会议上发布的经济预测。Timiraos总结说，届时，美联储FOMC委员会的掌舵者很可能已换成凯文·沃什——特朗普提名的前美联储理事，接班鲍威尔。如何决定是否、以及如何正式调整美联储的政策指引，或许将落到沃什肩上，而他对这一问题的判断，可能与前任截然不同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SHV":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"TBIL":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"BSV":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"MUB":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"BND":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"ZROZ":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"VCIT":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":547492801574704,"gmtCreate":1774688795163,"gmtModify":1774688798331,"author":{"id":"3547897718833559","authorId":"3547897718833559","name":"足球先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8e8138e7f7c5a66e689bb54e686039c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547897718833559","idStr":"3547897718833559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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