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2020-09-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$资金分成5分进厂，每跌20％补20％，破90％上杠杆猛干哈哈哈

2020-10-22

$Corrections Corp of America(CXW)$买这股爆亏的朋友留言一下

2020-10-28

$Corrections Corp of America(CXW)$亏到麻木了，跌到1块吧，奉陪到底哦[微笑]

2020-09-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$轻仓为王，笑看市场云卷云舒

2020-09-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$没进的朋友可以开始逢低建仓了😁

2020-10-28

支持阿特，阿特必胜

美国大选前最后一场辩论，特朗普能逆风翻盘吗？

2020-10-16

$名创优品(MNSO)$山寨版无印良品，宣称创始人为三宅顺也，三宅顺也宣称没有参与企业实际经营，这就尴尬了，全中国2000间门店，日本本土仅4间，节操呢[捂脸]

2020-09-16

$特斯拉(TSLA)$赶紧跌我好加仓[微笑]

2020-09-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$说好的跌呢，我等着呢，快来吧

2020-09-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$别人恐惧我贪婪，赶紧上车了

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>对全球基金经理人的一项调查显示，60%的受访者预期选举结果将发生争议。</p><p>若美国大选出现争议性结果，最可能出现两种情景：</p><p>第一，考虑到计算选票的过程较慢，今年的选举结果可能会延迟(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>认为，有80%的可能在选举之夜无法确定结果)。</p><p>根据佛罗里达大学的美国选举计划数据显示，约有2,770万选民已经在11月3日大选前通过邮寄或去投票站现场提前完成了投票。这个创纪录的数字部分是受卫生事件影响，选民担心大选当日投票站人群聚集。</p><p>第二，输掉选举的候选人拒绝承认结果，权利交接可能出现混乱(特朗普一再拒绝透露他是否会接受选举结果)。</p><p>不过第二种情景可能不会出现。</p><p>特朗普的团队一直认真的制定“和平移交权力”计划(万一他输了)，过渡工作已经进行了几个月。总统助理利德尔(Chris Liddell)花了数周的时间来计划将权力移交给拜登。利德尔已按国会规定的期限在5月和8月提交了两个不同的过渡报告，他正在与职业政府官员密切合作，后者是联邦过渡时期的协调员。</p><p>总统过渡中心主任马尔奇克说，他们非常非常专注于执行法律，他们做得很好。</p><p>白宫副新闻秘书迪尔表示：“特朗普政府已经满足并将继续满足法律的所有要求，因为这涉及到政府之间的任何必要过渡。”</p><p>一旦选举结果发生争议，须注意两个关键日期：一是12月14日美国选举人团正式投票，二是2021年1月6日国会开会正式计算选举人团的票数。在这两个时点出现任何不确定性，几乎肯定会酿成一场法律战，这比重新计票更严重。</p><p>从历史的角度来看，大选出现争议在美国并非没有先例，近的有20年前布什与戈尔的法律之争。</p><p>2000年美国总统大选，上演了一场悲喜剧。围绕着佛罗里达州选票计票，出现了前所未有的戏剧性局面，戈尔要求在佛罗里达州重新计票，选举结果延迟了36天。破天荒地将总统宝座之争先后诉诸于法庭，最后由联邦最高法院9位大法官以5票对4票的裁决，把布什送进了白宫。2020年选举将成为美国历史上法律纠纷最多的一次选举。</p><p>今年已经有190多个涉及选举的法律案件，涉及的问题从邮寄选票身份要求到因卫生事件造成修改初选投票日是否合法等。谁也不知道可能会出现哪些法律纠纷，从而导致最终结果被推迟。</p><p>市场不喜欢不确定性：在接下来的几周内，标准普尔500指数一度下跌了7.5%，这段时期市场的动荡令投资者感到不安。尽管媒体没有将这种后果描述为“破坏性事件”，但仍然值得一提。如果确实发生了意外情况，则市场波动率将急剧上升。</p><p>根据美国宪法规定，如果最终胜负难分或出现无法解决的争端，新选出的众议院最晚将在1月6日决定总统人选。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023acd933c1eb40baaf1f2f976c90ffb\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"842\"></p><p>如果特朗普连任，股市看涨;如果拜登胜选，则股市看跌，因为拜登会增加税收和加强监管，华尔街会认为这是负面的。但随着时间的推移，交易员们再次审视了局面，然后认为特朗普的胜利对市场有利，但拜登的胜利则更好。</p><p>如果出现无争议的选举结果，那么也可能会出现四种情况。</p><p>1、特朗普获胜，参议院仍留在共和党手中；2、特朗普获胜，参议院转向民主党；3、拜登获胜，参议院仍由共和党掌控；4、拜登获胜，参议院转向民主党。</p><p>对于股市来说，最好的情况是出现第四种结果。由同一党派控制国会，财政刺激方案推出便不会出现僵局，意味着最多的财政刺激措施。但这对于美元而言，这无疑是最糟糕的结果。所有这些刺激，所有赤字将会越来越大。因此，这绝对是美元最糟糕的结果。</p><p>目前市场将所有的焦点放在了北京时间周五9:00的最后一场总统辩论上，这是特朗普翻盘最好的机会。特朗普取消了原定于上周四举行的第二场辩论，鉴于目前不利的民调形势，这让高级共和党人感到震惊。</p><p>总统辩论委员会宣布了一项新的措施，这场辩论将配备“消音键”，避免第一次辩论中特朗普不断插话。每轮15分钟辩论回合的头两分钟，候选人的麦克风将被静音，之后两人的麦克风才会打开，进行你来我往的交锋。主持人将负责确保每个候选人在公开讨论环节中发言时间大致相等。</p><p>特朗普认为，辩论组织者在支持他的对手。特朗普还抱怨辩论的主题，更侧重外交政策(这是拜登的政策主张)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a09b2574e0ad3c3a8434cdc082d14bb2\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"839\"></p><p>不过特朗普表示他还是会参加辩论，“我会参加，我只是认为这很不公平，并且有一个完全偏颇的主持人也非常不公平。”</p>","source":"hejqbq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国大选前最后一场辩论，特朗普能逆风翻盘吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-21 14:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/349425.html><strong>华尔街情报圈</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着我们接近2020年大选，分析师开始研究各种结果如何影响市场和整个经济。目前所掌握的情况看，对特朗普很不利：1)目前近3000万的美国人已提前投票(拜登领先)，这降低了特朗普扭转选情的可能性。根据佛罗里达大学汇编的数据库，近3000万美国人已提前对11月总统大选投票(达到2016年整体投票人数的21%以上)，创下历史纪录。很多选民希望避开11月3日大选当天投票。有迹象显示拜登在提前投票中领先。在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/349425.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae2ff4f0dbefc0001a653cf1719d84fa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/349425.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100649024","content_text":"随着我们接近2020年大选，分析师开始研究各种结果如何影响市场和整个经济。目前所掌握的情况看，对特朗普很不利：1)目前近3000万的美国人已提前投票(拜登领先)，这降低了特朗普扭转选情的可能性。根据佛罗里达大学汇编的数据库，近3000万美国人已提前对11月总统大选投票(达到2016年整体投票人数的21%以上)，创下历史纪录。很多选民希望避开11月3日大选当天投票。有迹象显示拜登在提前投票中领先。在公开报告选民登记党派的州，近54%的投票来自民主党登记选民，25%来自共和党登记选民。2)彼得森基金会民调发现，认为特朗普政策损害经济的受访者今年首次多于持相反观点的受访者。46%的美国人认为特朗普的政策损害了经济，44%的美国人认为特朗普的政策起到了帮助。市场面临的一个风险可能是 “有争议的选举”。美国银行对全球基金经理人的一项调查显示，60%的受访者预期选举结果将发生争议。若美国大选出现争议性结果，最可能出现两种情景：第一，考虑到计算选票的过程较慢，今年的选举结果可能会延迟(摩根士丹利认为，有80%的可能在选举之夜无法确定结果)。根据佛罗里达大学的美国选举计划数据显示，约有2,770万选民已经在11月3日大选前通过邮寄或去投票站现场提前完成了投票。这个创纪录的数字部分是受卫生事件影响，选民担心大选当日投票站人群聚集。第二，输掉选举的候选人拒绝承认结果，权利交接可能出现混乱(特朗普一再拒绝透露他是否会接受选举结果)。不过第二种情景可能不会出现。特朗普的团队一直认真的制定“和平移交权力”计划(万一他输了)，过渡工作已经进行了几个月。总统助理利德尔(Chris Liddell)花了数周的时间来计划将权力移交给拜登。利德尔已按国会规定的期限在5月和8月提交了两个不同的过渡报告，他正在与职业政府官员密切合作，后者是联邦过渡时期的协调员。总统过渡中心主任马尔奇克说，他们非常非常专注于执行法律，他们做得很好。白宫副新闻秘书迪尔表示：“特朗普政府已经满足并将继续满足法律的所有要求，因为这涉及到政府之间的任何必要过渡。”一旦选举结果发生争议，须注意两个关键日期：一是12月14日美国选举人团正式投票，二是2021年1月6日国会开会正式计算选举人团的票数。在这两个时点出现任何不确定性，几乎肯定会酿成一场法律战，这比重新计票更严重。从历史的角度来看，大选出现争议在美国并非没有先例，近的有20年前布什与戈尔的法律之争。2000年美国总统大选，上演了一场悲喜剧。围绕着佛罗里达州选票计票，出现了前所未有的戏剧性局面，戈尔要求在佛罗里达州重新计票，选举结果延迟了36天。破天荒地将总统宝座之争先后诉诸于法庭，最后由联邦最高法院9位大法官以5票对4票的裁决，把布什送进了白宫。2020年选举将成为美国历史上法律纠纷最多的一次选举。今年已经有190多个涉及选举的法律案件，涉及的问题从邮寄选票身份要求到因卫生事件造成修改初选投票日是否合法等。谁也不知道可能会出现哪些法律纠纷，从而导致最终结果被推迟。市场不喜欢不确定性：在接下来的几周内，标准普尔500指数一度下跌了7.5%，这段时期市场的动荡令投资者感到不安。尽管媒体没有将这种后果描述为“破坏性事件”，但仍然值得一提。如果确实发生了意外情况，则市场波动率将急剧上升。根据美国宪法规定，如果最终胜负难分或出现无法解决的争端，新选出的众议院最晚将在1月6日决定总统人选。如果特朗普连任，股市看涨;如果拜登胜选，则股市看跌，因为拜登会增加税收和加强监管，华尔街会认为这是负面的。但随着时间的推移，交易员们再次审视了局面，然后认为特朗普的胜利对市场有利，但拜登的胜利则更好。如果出现无争议的选举结果，那么也可能会出现四种情况。1、特朗普获胜，参议院仍留在共和党手中；2、特朗普获胜，参议院转向民主党；3、拜登获胜，参议院仍由共和党掌控；4、拜登获胜，参议院转向民主党。对于股市来说，最好的情况是出现第四种结果。由同一党派控制国会，财政刺激方案推出便不会出现僵局，意味着最多的财政刺激措施。但这对于美元而言，这无疑是最糟糕的结果。所有这些刺激，所有赤字将会越来越大。因此，这绝对是美元最糟糕的结果。目前市场将所有的焦点放在了北京时间周五9:00的最后一场总统辩论上，这是特朗普翻盘最好的机会。特朗普取消了原定于上周四举行的第二场辩论，鉴于目前不利的民调形势，这让高级共和党人感到震惊。总统辩论委员会宣布了一项新的措施，这场辩论将配备“消音键”，避免第一次辩论中特朗普不断插话。每轮15分钟辩论回合的头两分钟，候选人的麦克风将被静音，之后两人的麦克风才会打开，进行你来我往的交锋。主持人将负责确保每个候选人在公开讨论环节中发言时间大致相等。特朗普认为，辩论组织者在支持他的对手。特朗普还抱怨辩论的主题，更侧重外交政策(这是拜登的政策主张)。不过特朗普表示他还是会参加辩论，“我会参加，我只是认为这很不公平，并且有一个完全偏颇的主持人也非常不公平。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"230159128932650","authorId":"230159128932650","name":"小宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1495b7d0144025f4a3db9cc3741bfce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"230159128932650","idStr":"230159128932650"},"content":"补仓没有cxw","text":"补仓没有cxw","html":"补仓没有cxw"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308932170,"gmtCreate":1603822254790,"gmtModify":1703830867619,"author":{"id":"3547981529057143","authorId":"3547981529057143","name":"spancer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547981529057143","idStr":"3547981529057143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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14:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国大选前最后一场辩论，特朗普能逆风翻盘吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100649024","media":"华尔街情报圈","summary":"随着我们接近2020年大选，分析师开始研究各种结果如何影响市场和整个经济。1)目前近3000万的美国人已提前投票，这降低了特朗普扭转选情的可能性。46%的美国人认为特朗普的政策损害了经济，44%的美国人认为特朗普的政策起到了帮助。目前市场将所有的焦点放在了北京时间周五9:00的最后一场总统辩论上，这是特朗普翻盘最好的机会。总统辩论委员会宣布了一项新的措施，这场辩论将配备“消音键”，避免第一次辩论中特朗普不断插话。","content":"<p>随着我们接近2020年大选，分析师开始研究各种结果如何影响市场和整个经济。</p><p>目前所掌握的情况看，对特朗普很不利：</p><p>1)目前近3000万的美国人已提前投票(拜登领先)，这降低了特朗普扭转选情的可能性。</p><p>根据佛罗里达大学汇编的数据库，近3000万美国人已提前对11月总统大选投票(达到2016年整体投票人数的21%以上)，创下历史纪录。很多选民希望避开11月3日大选当天投票。有迹象显示拜登在提前投票中领先。在公开报告选民登记党派的州，近54%的投票来自民主党登记选民，25%来自共和党登记选民。</p><p>2)彼得森基金会民调发现，认为特朗普政策损害经济的受访者今年首次多于持相反观点的受访者。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a272146f32cd2b03da40ceecae389704\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"919\"></p><p>46%的美国人认为特朗普的政策损害了经济，44%的美国人认为特朗普的政策起到了帮助。</p><p><b>市场面临的一个风险可能是 “有争议的选举”。</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>对全球基金经理人的一项调查显示，60%的受访者预期选举结果将发生争议。</p><p>若美国大选出现争议性结果，最可能出现两种情景：</p><p>第一，考虑到计算选票的过程较慢，今年的选举结果可能会延迟(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>认为，有80%的可能在选举之夜无法确定结果)。</p><p>根据佛罗里达大学的美国选举计划数据显示，约有2,770万选民已经在11月3日大选前通过邮寄或去投票站现场提前完成了投票。这个创纪录的数字部分是受卫生事件影响，选民担心大选当日投票站人群聚集。</p><p>第二，输掉选举的候选人拒绝承认结果，权利交接可能出现混乱(特朗普一再拒绝透露他是否会接受选举结果)。</p><p>不过第二种情景可能不会出现。</p><p>特朗普的团队一直认真的制定“和平移交权力”计划(万一他输了)，过渡工作已经进行了几个月。总统助理利德尔(Chris Liddell)花了数周的时间来计划将权力移交给拜登。利德尔已按国会规定的期限在5月和8月提交了两个不同的过渡报告，他正在与职业政府官员密切合作，后者是联邦过渡时期的协调员。</p><p>总统过渡中心主任马尔奇克说，他们非常非常专注于执行法律，他们做得很好。</p><p>白宫副新闻秘书迪尔表示：“特朗普政府已经满足并将继续满足法律的所有要求，因为这涉及到政府之间的任何必要过渡。”</p><p>一旦选举结果发生争议，须注意两个关键日期：一是12月14日美国选举人团正式投票，二是2021年1月6日国会开会正式计算选举人团的票数。在这两个时点出现任何不确定性，几乎肯定会酿成一场法律战，这比重新计票更严重。</p><p>从历史的角度来看，大选出现争议在美国并非没有先例，近的有20年前布什与戈尔的法律之争。</p><p>2000年美国总统大选，上演了一场悲喜剧。围绕着佛罗里达州选票计票，出现了前所未有的戏剧性局面，戈尔要求在佛罗里达州重新计票，选举结果延迟了36天。破天荒地将总统宝座之争先后诉诸于法庭，最后由联邦最高法院9位大法官以5票对4票的裁决，把布什送进了白宫。2020年选举将成为美国历史上法律纠纷最多的一次选举。</p><p>今年已经有190多个涉及选举的法律案件，涉及的问题从邮寄选票身份要求到因卫生事件造成修改初选投票日是否合法等。谁也不知道可能会出现哪些法律纠纷，从而导致最终结果被推迟。</p><p>市场不喜欢不确定性：在接下来的几周内，标准普尔500指数一度下跌了7.5%，这段时期市场的动荡令投资者感到不安。尽管媒体没有将这种后果描述为“破坏性事件”，但仍然值得一提。如果确实发生了意外情况，则市场波动率将急剧上升。</p><p>根据美国宪法规定，如果最终胜负难分或出现无法解决的争端，新选出的众议院最晚将在1月6日决定总统人选。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023acd933c1eb40baaf1f2f976c90ffb\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"842\"></p><p>如果特朗普连任，股市看涨;如果拜登胜选，则股市看跌，因为拜登会增加税收和加强监管，华尔街会认为这是负面的。但随着时间的推移，交易员们再次审视了局面，然后认为特朗普的胜利对市场有利，但拜登的胜利则更好。</p><p>如果出现无争议的选举结果，那么也可能会出现四种情况。</p><p>1、特朗普获胜，参议院仍留在共和党手中；2、特朗普获胜，参议院转向民主党；3、拜登获胜，参议院仍由共和党掌控；4、拜登获胜，参议院转向民主党。</p><p>对于股市来说，最好的情况是出现第四种结果。由同一党派控制国会，财政刺激方案推出便不会出现僵局，意味着最多的财政刺激措施。但这对于美元而言，这无疑是最糟糕的结果。所有这些刺激，所有赤字将会越来越大。因此，这绝对是美元最糟糕的结果。</p><p>目前市场将所有的焦点放在了北京时间周五9:00的最后一场总统辩论上，这是特朗普翻盘最好的机会。特朗普取消了原定于上周四举行的第二场辩论，鉴于目前不利的民调形势，这让高级共和党人感到震惊。</p><p>总统辩论委员会宣布了一项新的措施，这场辩论将配备“消音键”，避免第一次辩论中特朗普不断插话。每轮15分钟辩论回合的头两分钟，候选人的麦克风将被静音，之后两人的麦克风才会打开，进行你来我往的交锋。主持人将负责确保每个候选人在公开讨论环节中发言时间大致相等。</p><p>特朗普认为，辩论组织者在支持他的对手。特朗普还抱怨辩论的主题，更侧重外交政策(这是拜登的政策主张)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a09b2574e0ad3c3a8434cdc082d14bb2\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"839\"></p><p>不过特朗普表示他还是会参加辩论，“我会参加，我只是认为这很不公平，并且有一个完全偏颇的主持人也非常不公平。”</p>","source":"hejqbq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国大选前最后一场辩论，特朗普能逆风翻盘吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-21 14:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/349425.html><strong>华尔街情报圈</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着我们接近2020年大选，分析师开始研究各种结果如何影响市场和整个经济。目前所掌握的情况看，对特朗普很不利：1)目前近3000万的美国人已提前投票(拜登领先)，这降低了特朗普扭转选情的可能性。根据佛罗里达大学汇编的数据库，近3000万美国人已提前对11月总统大选投票(达到2016年整体投票人数的21%以上)，创下历史纪录。很多选民希望避开11月3日大选当天投票。有迹象显示拜登在提前投票中领先。在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/349425.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae2ff4f0dbefc0001a653cf1719d84fa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/349425.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100649024","content_text":"随着我们接近2020年大选，分析师开始研究各种结果如何影响市场和整个经济。目前所掌握的情况看，对特朗普很不利：1)目前近3000万的美国人已提前投票(拜登领先)，这降低了特朗普扭转选情的可能性。根据佛罗里达大学汇编的数据库，近3000万美国人已提前对11月总统大选投票(达到2016年整体投票人数的21%以上)，创下历史纪录。很多选民希望避开11月3日大选当天投票。有迹象显示拜登在提前投票中领先。在公开报告选民登记党派的州，近54%的投票来自民主党登记选民，25%来自共和党登记选民。2)彼得森基金会民调发现，认为特朗普政策损害经济的受访者今年首次多于持相反观点的受访者。46%的美国人认为特朗普的政策损害了经济，44%的美国人认为特朗普的政策起到了帮助。市场面临的一个风险可能是 “有争议的选举”。美国银行对全球基金经理人的一项调查显示，60%的受访者预期选举结果将发生争议。若美国大选出现争议性结果，最可能出现两种情景：第一，考虑到计算选票的过程较慢，今年的选举结果可能会延迟(摩根士丹利认为，有80%的可能在选举之夜无法确定结果)。根据佛罗里达大学的美国选举计划数据显示，约有2,770万选民已经在11月3日大选前通过邮寄或去投票站现场提前完成了投票。这个创纪录的数字部分是受卫生事件影响，选民担心大选当日投票站人群聚集。第二，输掉选举的候选人拒绝承认结果，权利交接可能出现混乱(特朗普一再拒绝透露他是否会接受选举结果)。不过第二种情景可能不会出现。特朗普的团队一直认真的制定“和平移交权力”计划(万一他输了)，过渡工作已经进行了几个月。总统助理利德尔(Chris Liddell)花了数周的时间来计划将权力移交给拜登。利德尔已按国会规定的期限在5月和8月提交了两个不同的过渡报告，他正在与职业政府官员密切合作，后者是联邦过渡时期的协调员。总统过渡中心主任马尔奇克说，他们非常非常专注于执行法律，他们做得很好。白宫副新闻秘书迪尔表示：“特朗普政府已经满足并将继续满足法律的所有要求，因为这涉及到政府之间的任何必要过渡。”一旦选举结果发生争议，须注意两个关键日期：一是12月14日美国选举人团正式投票，二是2021年1月6日国会开会正式计算选举人团的票数。在这两个时点出现任何不确定性，几乎肯定会酿成一场法律战，这比重新计票更严重。从历史的角度来看，大选出现争议在美国并非没有先例，近的有20年前布什与戈尔的法律之争。2000年美国总统大选，上演了一场悲喜剧。围绕着佛罗里达州选票计票，出现了前所未有的戏剧性局面，戈尔要求在佛罗里达州重新计票，选举结果延迟了36天。破天荒地将总统宝座之争先后诉诸于法庭，最后由联邦最高法院9位大法官以5票对4票的裁决，把布什送进了白宫。2020年选举将成为美国历史上法律纠纷最多的一次选举。今年已经有190多个涉及选举的法律案件，涉及的问题从邮寄选票身份要求到因卫生事件造成修改初选投票日是否合法等。谁也不知道可能会出现哪些法律纠纷，从而导致最终结果被推迟。市场不喜欢不确定性：在接下来的几周内，标准普尔500指数一度下跌了7.5%，这段时期市场的动荡令投资者感到不安。尽管媒体没有将这种后果描述为“破坏性事件”，但仍然值得一提。如果确实发生了意外情况，则市场波动率将急剧上升。根据美国宪法规定，如果最终胜负难分或出现无法解决的争端，新选出的众议院最晚将在1月6日决定总统人选。如果特朗普连任，股市看涨;如果拜登胜选，则股市看跌，因为拜登会增加税收和加强监管，华尔街会认为这是负面的。但随着时间的推移，交易员们再次审视了局面，然后认为特朗普的胜利对市场有利，但拜登的胜利则更好。如果出现无争议的选举结果，那么也可能会出现四种情况。1、特朗普获胜，参议院仍留在共和党手中；2、特朗普获胜，参议院转向民主党；3、拜登获胜，参议院仍由共和党掌控；4、拜登获胜，参议院转向民主党。对于股市来说，最好的情况是出现第四种结果。由同一党派控制国会，财政刺激方案推出便不会出现僵局，意味着最多的财政刺激措施。但这对于美元而言，这无疑是最糟糕的结果。所有这些刺激，所有赤字将会越来越大。因此，这绝对是美元最糟糕的结果。目前市场将所有的焦点放在了北京时间周五9:00的最后一场总统辩论上，这是特朗普翻盘最好的机会。特朗普取消了原定于上周四举行的第二场辩论，鉴于目前不利的民调形势，这让高级共和党人感到震惊。总统辩论委员会宣布了一项新的措施，这场辩论将配备“消音键”，避免第一次辩论中特朗普不断插话。每轮15分钟辩论回合的头两分钟，候选人的麦克风将被静音，之后两人的麦克风才会打开，进行你来我往的交锋。主持人将负责确保每个候选人在公开讨论环节中发言时间大致相等。特朗普认为，辩论组织者在支持他的对手。特朗普还抱怨辩论的主题，更侧重外交政策(这是拜登的政策主张)。不过特朗普表示他还是会参加辩论，“我会参加，我只是认为这很不公平，并且有一个完全偏颇的主持人也非常不公平。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"230159128932650","authorId":"230159128932650","name":"小宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1495b7d0144025f4a3db9cc3741bfce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"230159128932650","idStr":"230159128932650"},"content":"补仓没有cxw","text":"补仓没有cxw","html":"补仓没有cxw"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303066704,"gmtCreate":1602827383108,"gmtModify":1703828082419,"author":{"id":"3547981529057143","authorId":"3547981529057143","name":"spancer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547981529057143","idStr":"3547981529057143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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